Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

[shnikies]

Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.

Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).

Gallery's first game this season with Lynch was week 9. I might be wrong but he's looked really good the last five weeks.

 

[mjr]

What do people feel his dynasty value will be after this season? I have him on a couple of dynasty teams and have shopped him a bit for the past two years but have not been able to get any value at all for him so have continued to keep him and use him. What do you think he would fetch after this season?

Lynch is still young enough to put up a few solid seasons, and if he can continue this level of play and finish strong, I think he can possibly fetch up to the 1.03 rookie draft pick. Not sure if someone would give up a shot at Luck or Richardson for him though. Maybe you can get a #1 WR or TE like Fitz or Finley in some sort of package deal if the other guy has depth and is desperate at RB. I don't know. A lot will depend on how he finishes out the season and which way Seattle goes in the first round of the draft.

 

[shnikies]

What do people feel his dynasty value will be after this season? I have him on a couple of dynasty teams and have shopped him a bit for the past two years but have not been able to get any value at all for him so have continued to keep him and use him. What do you think he would fetch after this season?

Lynch is still young enough to put up a few solid seasons, and if he can continue this level of play and finish strong, I think he can possibly fetch up to the 1.03 rookie draft pick. Not sure if someone would give up a shot at Luck or Richardson for him though. Maybe you can get a #1 WR or TE like Fitz or Finley in some sort of package deal if the other guy has depth and is desperate at RB. I don't know. A lot will depend on how he finishes out the season and which way Seattle goes in the first round of the draft.

I'm guessing they'll try to shore up their secondary if all of the four quarterbacks are already gone which is likely. They'll also try to add an o-lineman or two. They will probably acquire a quarterback somehow but I don't think it's their top priority if they can't get Luck, RG3, Barkley or Jones. It's pretty obvious that Carroll wants to emulate the 49ers and try to win with a dominant defense and a strong running game.

 

[mad sweeney]

Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.

Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).

Gallery's first game this season with Lynch was week 9. I might be wrong but he's looked really good the last five weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that he's got the most penalties since he came back. I thought it was earlier than week 9 though. I know pretty much everyone on Seattle MBs thinks he's the weak link in the OL chain (prior to Moffet, Carpenter and Okung inuries).

 

[shnikies]

Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.

Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).

Gallery's first game this season with Lynch was week 9. I might be wrong but he's looked really good the last five weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that he's got the most penalties since he came back. I thought it was earlier than week 9 though. I know pretty much everyone on Seattle MBs thinks he's the weak link in the OL chain (prior to Moffet, Carpenter and Okung inuries).

He came back week 8, the week that Lynch hurt his back during warmups. I'm not disputing the fact that that he's penalized a lot, I'm just saying that he does a very good job run blocking.

 

[shnikies]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

 

[mad sweeney]

Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.

Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).

Gallery's first game this season with Lynch was week 9. I might be wrong but he's looked really good the last five weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that he's got the most penalties since he came back. I thought it was earlier than week 9 though. I know pretty much everyone on Seattle MBs thinks he's the weak link in the OL chain (prior to Moffet, Carpenter and Okung inuries).

He came back week 8, the week that Lynch hurt his back during warmups. I'm disputing the fact that that he's penalized a lot, I'm just saying that he does a very good job run blocking.

Did you mean to say you're not disputing the penalties? Maybe I've only seen him get flagged or blown up in pass pro, all I know is that he's the least impressive of the starting OL and he's been competing for that dishonor with the backups on the right side. I'll pay more attention next week, I couldn't record last week because of the Great Los Angeles Power Outage of 2011! My house was all the way down in the low 50s, if you can believe that !

 

[shnikies]

Here is the question. With Okung likely out for the year, is he still a guy to count on in the playoffs? He is a must start against the Rams, but in week 15 and 16 he has the tough Bears D, and the otherworldly 49ers D

I think the Seahawks philosophy is more important than their opponent. Carroll has obviously decided it's best to feed him the ball and play defense. First, I wouldn't group the Bears in with the 49ers. One team has given up 5 touchdowns and the other 0. But the main issue is will either of these teams be able to score easily enough against the Seahawks to force them to abandon the run? I don't think so. Would you be disappointed with a line of 25 carries for 80 yard plus receiving and a chance at a touchdown? I wouldn't. Obviously, if you're loaded at the running back position you're going to have a decision to make but I think Lynch is still a top 25 option even against the 49ers and against the Bears he's still a borderline must start. Obviously, losing Okung hurts but Gallery is as important or even more important in the running game.

Uh, not quite sure about that. Maybe now with all the injuries, but to be honest, I haven't been impressed with Gallery. Probably has the most penalties of any OL, including false starts. And he pulls well but I'm not sure about his run blocking otherwise. He's the weak link of the core OL (3 of which are now injured).

Gallery's first game this season with Lynch was week 9. I might be wrong but he's looked really good the last five weeks.

I'd be willing to bet that he's got the most penalties since he came back. I thought it was earlier than week 9 though. I know pretty much everyone on Seattle MBs thinks he's the weak link in the OL chain (prior to Moffet, Carpenter and Okung inuries).

He came back week 8, the week that Lynch hurt his back during warmups. I'm disputing the fact that that he's penalized a lot, I'm just saying that he does a very good job run blocking.

Did you mean to say you're not disputing the penalties? Maybe I've only seen him get flagged or blown up in pass pro, all I know is that he's the least impressive of the starting OL and he's been competing for that dishonor with the backups on the right side. I'll pay more attention next week, I couldn't record last week because of the Great Los Angeles Power Outage of 2011! My house was all the way down in the low 50s, if you can believe that !

Yes, I forgot the key word, "not" in there.

 

[humpback]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

 

[shnikies]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

 

[billjohnson]

B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E B E A S T M O D E

 

[Chaka]

Rotoworld...

Marshawn Lynch (ankle) returned to Seahawks practice Wednesday, as expected.

Lynch is on track to start Week 1 against a 49ers defense that ranked sixth in the league against the run last season and second in yards-per-carry allowed. San Francisco will be a bit more leaky this year without Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes, but Lynch's mediocre talent makes him a poor bet for more than 75 yards anyway. He's a low-upside flex play in the matchup.

...per the usual

But he was a poor bet for 75 yards (13 carries for 33 + 2 rec for 14) so they got that right.

 

[humpback]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/

He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

Right there are a couple of "if's", and we still have 5 games left this season to see how things shake out. If he keeps this pace up, then he could be in the 20's, but that's another "if".If we had a draft for 2012 right now, I certainly wouldn't take him in the top 20.

 

[shnikies]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/

He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

Right there are a couple of "if's", and we still have 5 games left this season to see how things shake out. If he keeps this pace up, then he could be in the 20's, but that's another "if".If we had a draft for 2012 right now, I certainly wouldn't take him in the top 20.

What 12 backs that have less "ifs" would you take ahead of him?

 

[humpback]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/

He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

Right there are a couple of "if's", and we still have 5 games left this season to see how things shake out. If he keeps this pace up, then he could be in the 20's, but that's another "if".If we had a draft for 2012 right now, I certainly wouldn't take him in the top 20.

What 12 backs that have less "ifs" would you take ahead of him?

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, Stafford

RB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJ

WR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, Jennings

TE- Graham, Gronk

That's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.

I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

 

[Pipes]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/

He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

Right there are a couple of "if's", and we still have 5 games left this season to see how things shake out. If he keeps this pace up, then he could be in the 20's, but that's another "if".If we had a draft for 2012 right now, I certainly wouldn't take him in the top 20.

What 12 backs that have less "ifs" would you take ahead of him?

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, Stafford

RB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJ

WR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, Jennings

TE- Graham, Gronk

That's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.

I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

I really question the bold. Especially Stafford and the 2 TE's. I think you have to put Lynch ahead of Turner as well. Lynch's numbers are better than Turner since week 5 and Turner's mileage is starting to add up. I'm not sure Lynch's ADP is top 20 but its close.

 

[humpback]

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:

QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, Stafford

RB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJ

WR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, Jennings

TE- Graham, Gronk

That's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.

I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

I really question the bold. Especially Stafford and the 2 TE's. I think you have to put Lynch ahead of Turner as well. Lynch's numbers are better than Turner since week 5 and Turner's mileage is starting to add up. I'm not sure Lynch's ADP is top 20 but its close.

I know the team and offense Turner is going to be in next year, not the case with Lynch. They've put up the same points this year, give me the guy with the more certain situation and the better track record. Those TEs give you a huge edge over your opponents, I'd absolutely take them over Lynch, but to each their own. Stafford is a personal choice, I'd take him but I know not everyone would.I could see an argument for top 30 (although it isn't a lock), but top 20 I just can't see right now. Even if you took all 4 of those guys out and didn't add anyone wouldn't get top 20.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He will have a late second-third ranking which means he could likely produce as much as a first round pick. Hillis, Ryan Mathews and Matt Forte of this year comes to mind. I have no clue what the rest of the year, fa's, his contract, the draft will do to his stock.

 

[humpback]

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, StaffordRB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJWR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, JenningsTE- Graham, GronkThat's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

Usually TE1 goes around ADP 35 in drafts. Being willing to take TE2 before ADP 27 is crazy talk. Beyond that, I think your list is legitimate. Assuming Lynch performs adequately during the end of the year, I'd take your list and subtract Brady, Stafford, Turner, CJ, Nicks, Graham, and Gronk. That puts Lynch in the mid to late second round.

This isn't a usual season- when TE 1 and 2 are on pace to outscore the rest of the pack by as much as they are this year, it's crazy not to take them early, but I won't argue with you.

 

[humpback]

He will have a late second-third ranking which means he could likely produce as much as a first round pick. Hillis, Ryan Mathews and Matt Forte of this year comes to mind. I have no clue what the rest of the year, fa's, his contract, the draft will do to his stock.

I'm not really sure what you're saying here, but only one of those guys has had a good season. IMO, the risk/reward for Lynch just isn't there for me to consider him in the top 20.

 

[MarcO]

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:

QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, Stafford

RB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJ

WR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, Jennings

TE- Graham, Gronk

That's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.

I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

Usually TE1 goes around ADP 35 in drafts. Being willing to take TE2 before ADP 27 is crazy talk. Beyond that, I think your list is legitimate. Assuming Lynch performs adequately during the end of the year, I'd take your list and subtract Brady, Stafford, Turner, CJ, Nicks, Graham, and Gronk. That puts Lynch in the mid to late second round.

I don't think this has any bearing on Lynch's draft position next year. he's going to finish out the year with 3 guys on the O line that were not starters this year - nor will they be next year because of season ending injuries to Okung, Moffit, and Carpenter. I think Seattle's O-line will be one of the best in the league next year. If Lynch stays with the Hawks (and I think he will - Carroll has said negotiations are on going) - Lynch is a top 10 back in my mind.

 

[shnikies]

Where do you put this guy in a 2012 redraft?

It's so hard to say when so much can change but if I had to make a guess I'd say he's a top 20 pick.

The biggest thing that can change is his team- he's a FA. I highly doubt he's a top 20 pick though.

Obviously, it depends on whether he returns but I'm pretty sure Carroll is fan of his. I guess there's a chance he's run him 25 times a game because he won't be on the team next year. If he's a Seahawk next year and he has a healthy line to start the year, how is he not a top 12 back going into next year?http://profootballzone.com/nfl/seahawks-lynch-working-on-contract-extension/

He's put up 165.4 points in 11 games which translates to 241 points over a full year. Hillis was RB2 last year with 244 points. The difference is that Lynch is coming on strong late whereas Hillis sputtered out. Hillis had an ADP of 26 this year and I don't see Lynch being lower than that barring a drastic change to his situation.

Right there are a couple of "if's", and we still have 5 games left this season to see how things shake out. If he keeps this pace up, then he could be in the 20's, but that's another "if".If we had a draft for 2012 right now, I certainly wouldn't take him in the top 20.

What 12 backs that have less "ifs" would you take ahead of him?

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, Stafford

RB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJ

WR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, Jennings

TE- Graham, Gronk

That's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.

I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

You're pushing it with Smith, Wallace (might not even be the #1 on his team), Fitz, and Nicks (same as Wallace). You can make the argument for the tight ends. Stafford ahead of Lynch right now is absurd. Turner is a huge risk and so is CJ. I'd actually think about Mendenhall ahead of Lynch. That actually puts 19 players ahead of Lynch and right where I think he should be at 20.

 

[humpback]

You're pushing it with Smith, Wallace (might not even be the #1 on his team), Fitz, and Nicks (same as Wallace). You can make the argument for the tight ends. Stafford ahead of Lynch right now is absurd. Turner is a huge risk and so is CJ. I'd actually think about Mendenhall ahead of Lynch. That actually puts 19 players ahead of Lynch and right where I think he should be at 20.

Obviously there is going to be variation based on scoring and starting requirements- if you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, or if it's PPR, I think your crazy to only have 4 WRs rated higher than Lynch. Sure Turner and CJ have risks, everyone does, but they also have a much better track record. It seems you are ignoring a huge risk with Lynch- where he's going to play. Yes, I know they're talking about an extension (but if you look, they've only begun to discuss the parameters for a long term deal), but there's no way to know how it's going to play out. This is going to be his last chance at a big contract, you can bet he's going to want to cash in, we'll see if he ends up in Seattle. Right now, all we know is he's not under contract for next year.I know everyone is giddy over his last 5 games, but they seem to forget that he's had almost as many poor games this year as very good ones, and he's been pretty disappointing in his career up until now. There's just no way I'm taking him in the 2nd round if there's a draft right now. If you would, good luck.

 

[shnikies]

You're pushing it with Smith, Wallace (might not even be the #1 on his team), Fitz, and Nicks (same as Wallace). You can make the argument for the tight ends. Stafford ahead of Lynch right now is absurd. Turner is a huge risk and so is CJ. I'd actually think about Mendenhall ahead of Lynch. That actually puts 19 players ahead of Lynch and right where I think he should be at 20.

Obviously there is going to be variation based on scoring and starting requirements- if you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, or if it's PPR, I think your crazy to only have 4 WRs rated higher than Lynch. Sure Turner and CJ have risks, everyone does, but they also have a much better track record. It seems you are ignoring a huge risk with Lynch- where he's going to play. Yes, I know they're talking about an extension (but if you look, they've only begun to discuss the parameters for a long term deal), but there's no way to know how it's going to play out. This is going to be his last chance at a big contract, you can bet he's going to want to cash in, we'll see if he ends up in Seattle. Right now, all we know is he's not under contract for next year.I know everyone is giddy over his last 5 games, but they seem to forget that he's had almost as many poor games this year as very good ones, and he's been pretty disappointing in his career up until now. There's just no way I'm taking him in the 2nd round if there's a draft right now. If you would, good luck.

But you would take Stafford, Hakeem Nicks or Chris Johnson in the 2nd round?

 

[humpback]

You're pushing it with Smith, Wallace (might not even be the #1 on his team), Fitz, and Nicks (same as Wallace). You can make the argument for the tight ends. Stafford ahead of Lynch right now is absurd. Turner is a huge risk and so is CJ. I'd actually think about Mendenhall ahead of Lynch. That actually puts 19 players ahead of Lynch and right where I think he should be at 20.

Obviously there is going to be variation based on scoring and starting requirements- if you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, or if it's PPR, I think your crazy to only have 4 WRs rated higher than Lynch. Sure Turner and CJ have risks, everyone does, but they also have a much better track record. It seems you are ignoring a huge risk with Lynch- where he's going to play. Yes, I know they're talking about an extension (but if you look, they've only begun to discuss the parameters for a long term deal), but there's no way to know how it's going to play out. This is going to be his last chance at a big contract, you can bet he's going to want to cash in, we'll see if he ends up in Seattle. Right now, all we know is he's not under contract for next year.I know everyone is giddy over his last 5 games, but they seem to forget that he's had almost as many poor games this year as very good ones, and he's been pretty disappointing in his career up until now. There's just no way I'm taking him in the 2nd round if there's a draft right now. If you would, good luck.

But you would take Stafford, Hakeem Nicks or Chris Johnson in the 2nd round?

No, I don't have them in my top 20 either right now, but I would take them ahead of Lynch in the 3rd or 4th (Stafford would depend on who was still available). 20 is just too high for Lynch IMO, I'd rather take several players a round or two later than take him in the 2nd. Just my opinion, but I highly doubt his ADP would be top 20 if we were drafting today, but there's no way to know.

 

[FF Ninja]

To 12 RB doesn't mean top 20 player. Players I'd take ahead of him right now:QB- Rodgers, Cam, Brees, Brady, StaffordRB- McCoy, Rice, Foster, AP, Forte, MJD, Turner, Gore, Murray, McFadden, CJWR- Calvin, Welker, Smith, Wallace, Fitz, Green, Nicks, JenningsTE- Graham, GronkThat's 26 players, and there are several more who you could make a case for- FJackson, M. Bush, Beanie, SJax, Matthews, Blount, Mendy, etc.I'm not trying to bash the guy, but his ADP would not be top 20 right now.

I think Graham and Gronk are performing like top 5 WRs right now, so I hate to say it but I actually agree with this. However, I strongly disagree with Turner and Gore. They are both performing on par with Lynch despite Lynch's slow start, injured o-line, and poor QB play. And both of those guys are age/mileage decline risks. MJD is in the same boat to a lesser extent. Murray I'm just not buying into yet. I've seen nothing from CJ that makes me think he'll be more valuable than Lynch next year during Locker's time. A case could be made for Mendy, Mathews, and Fred Jackson. Bush will be interesting depending on where he goes. But in this day and age, a running back who is guaranteed 300+ carries and goal line duty is worth a top 20 pick. His last 5 games have put him on a 400+ carry pace. I'm not saying that will continue, but if that line improves next year then I could see him getting Michael Turner-esque carries.Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I still don't draft QBs in the first 2-3 rounds. Even if I did, I would not draft Stafford there. He's only averaging 2 pts/gm more than Eli and Romo and I won't be surprised to see that number dip. I'd be wary of a sophomore slump from Newton which would hurt Steve Smith's value, too.I don't play ppr so Lynch is currently the 15th ranked average scorer out of WR/TE/RB. That doesn't leave many WRs in the mix. I'd feel confident taking Calvin and Andre Johnson ahead of him. The only WRs averaging more ppg than him are Calvin, Welker, and Britt. Welker has kind of fizzled after a hot start, so I'm not even sure I can draft him with confidence that early in non-ppr. Fitz/Kolb has not been that strong of a connection. Jennings is really outperforming on a FP/target basis this year, so I expect a regression next year. If you look at the top 25 averages in WR, there just isn't a lot of motivation to take one early. Not many guys stand out. Britt, Cruz, and Nelson are 2, 5, 6. I'm not taking them ahead of Lynch.So I can't think of 20 guys I'd rather have than Lynch. I hope he has a 3rd round ADP so I can sleep on him if I have an early pick, but the only way that happens is if this patchwork o-line is just terrible. 300 carry backs don't fall to the 3rd.

 

[jon_mx]

Lynch is a clutch player, coming up big when I need him.

 

[FF Ninja]

As an update to the top 20 discussion, I think Lynch is now entering possible 1st round territory. He is going to finish the year as the #5 scoring RB. He's done this not by staying healthy (he did miss one game) but he is also the #7 RB by weekly scoring average. With one game left, he is a virtual lock to finish as the #1 RB for the second half of the season according to the data dominator. Perhaps not everyone puts stock into the second half, but enough people do that it will affect his draft stock for 2012. It should be noted that he falls to #3 in average if you take into account MJD and Foster's late bye weeks. Either way, the guy has been picking up serious steam and must be taken seriously after becoming the only back to score against the 49ers while missing 3 offensive linemen.

I'm going to say he likely lands behind Foster, McCoy, Rice, and MJD. He is averaging almost the same ppg as AP and Peterson's injury is scary. He's averaging more points than Forte and the oft injured McFadden. Chris Johnson makes a decent argument for inclusion. Fred Jackson's fantasy value will suffer due to the emergence of Spiller (FJax was getting 90% of the RB carries before injury) and to a lesser extent his age (will be 31). A strong case could be made for Ryan Mathews should Tolbert sign elsewhere as a FA.

Rodgers and Newton likely go first round next year in most leagues. Maybe a few crazy leagues will see Brees and Brady go, but realistically 2 QBs will be the max.

Calvin and Welker were the only guys to stand out from the pack this year. Injuries will likely linger on fantasy owners minds enough to keep Andre Johnson in the 2nd.

Gronk and Graham are the TE standouts. Not sure either go in the first, though. Maybe Gronk due to someone chasing his touchdowns this year.

The point is, you're likely only looking at 4-5 RBs, 2 QBs, 2 WRs, and maybe 1 TE ahead of Lynch. He seems a certain late 1st round value at this point due to his likely 300 carry, 30 rec, 10+ TD projection for 2012 assuming the Seahawks do make good on their plan to give him an extension/long-term deal.

 

[butcher boy]

I would also worry about a post extension/long term deal dropoff. He's also not that far removed from his off the field problems and being supplanted by Fred Jackson in Buffalo. It's going to be an interesting call late in the first round next year.

 

[FF Ninja]

Lynch doesn't strike me as one of those guys. He's been in nothing but bad situations his whole career. I think he'll see a chance to win next year and he'll really benefit from a healthy line and improved qb play.

 

[Chaka]

Lynch doesn't strike me as one of those guys. He's been in nothing but bad situations his whole career. I think he'll see a chance to win next year and he'll really benefit from a healthy line and improved qb play.

Oh I think he could be one of those guys. I am not saying he will be but I am fairly certain he has it in him.

 

[biju]

Lynch doesn't strike me as one of those guys. He's been in nothing but bad situations his whole career. I think he'll see a chance to win next year and he'll really benefit from a healthy line and improved qb play.

Oh I think he could be one of those guys. I am not saying he will be but I am fairly certain he has it in him.

While I understand that you're saying he has the ability to be that guy, I wholly don't believe it will happen. Call it a gut instinct from a Seattle homer, but he seems to like it here and the fans love him. I just don't see him changing his attitude because he got paid. I think most people overlook that he lost a ton of weight coming into the season and believe he's playing for a contract, which is why there was a big difference between him last year and this year.Obviously, time will tell. I can say this: it would be shocking to see Lynch sign with a different team. Pete Carroll's entire offensive plan runs through this guy. We will probably make him a deal that overpays him, but unlike Shaun Alexander this one will be worth the cost.

 

[Chaka]

Lynch doesn't strike me as one of those guys. He's been in nothing but bad situations his whole career. I think he'll see a chance to win next year and he'll really benefit from a healthy line and improved qb play.

Oh I think he could be one of those guys. I am not saying he will be but I am fairly certain he has it in him.

While I understand that you're saying he has the ability to be that guy, I wholly don't believe it will happen. Call it a gut instinct from a Seattle homer, but he seems to like it here and the fans love him. I just don't see him changing his attitude because he got paid. I think most people overlook that he lost a ton of weight coming into the season and believe he's playing for a contract, which is why there was a big difference between him last year and this year.Obviously, time will tell. I can say this: it would be shocking to see Lynch sign with a different team. Pete Carroll's entire offensive plan runs through this guy. We will probably make him a deal that overpays him, but unlike Shaun Alexander this one will be worth the cost.

He lost a ton of weight and you believe he is playing for a contract but you don't think he will lose motivation after gaining said contract?I like the way he brings it hard on every run, even when there is nothing there he fights for yards and never goes down easy. But I also recognize that he has had a lot of off-field issues since his days at Cal. It has been two years since his last real off-field issue so perhaps he has cleaned up that part of his life but I am still wary that a big money contract could become an off-season, off-field distraction for him.

 

[biju]

Lynch doesn't strike me as one of those guys. He's been in nothing but bad situations his whole career. I think he'll see a chance to win next year and he'll really benefit from a healthy line and improved qb play.

Oh I think he could be one of those guys. I am not saying he will be but I am fairly certain he has it in him.

While I understand that you're saying he has the ability to be that guy, I wholly don't believe it will happen. Call it a gut instinct from a Seattle homer, but he seems to like it here and the fans love him. I just don't see him changing his attitude because he got paid. I think most people overlook that he lost a ton of weight coming into the season and believe he's playing for a contract, which is why there was a big difference between him last year and this year.Obviously, time will tell. I can say this: it would be shocking to see Lynch sign with a different team. Pete Carroll's entire offensive plan runs through this guy. We will probably make him a deal that overpays him, but unlike Shaun Alexander this one will be worth the cost.

He lost a ton of weight and you believe he is playing for a contract but you don't think he will lose motivation after gaining said contract?I like the way he brings it hard on every run, even when there is nothing there he fights for yards and never goes down easy. But I also recognize that he has had a lot of off-field issues since his days at Cal. It has been two years since his last real off-field issue so perhaps he has cleaned up that part of his life but I am still wary that a big money contract could become an off-season, off-field distraction for him.

No, actually I think he's playing the way he always plays and that the teams (Buffalo vs. Seattle) were the ones that dictated his playing weight. There's no way a professional football team would let a player change their weight on their own.I get it. Lots of players play for the big contract and then lose motivation. I just honestly don't see that in Lynch. At all. He seems extremely genuine to me. Yep, he had off-field issues in Buffalo (none in Seattle that I've heard of), although some of those I actually believe there is much more to the story (the $20 "theft" seems like that to me).

Maybe it's the homer in me that says he'll keep playing well. One can hope, right...