In recent weeks I’ve been revisiting the work of the fine Seattle band Soundgarden. While listening to their underrated release “Down on the Upside,” it occurred to me that the title of that album reflects my feelings about the three principles of the Atlanta passing game: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Jones’ average draft position has skyrocketed to WR2, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, putting him behind only Calvin Johnson at the position. Jones tantalized fantasy owners by dominating in Atlanta’s first preseason game, catching six passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in just the first quarter. His teammate, White, is still widely considered a top-10 receiver, checking in at WR9. Ryan has a current ADP of QB9.
What’s wrong with this picture?
With two of his receivers in the top 10, shouldn’t Ryan come in higher than QB9, even if Jones and White catch an absurdly high percentage of Ryan’s completions? (And, hey, TE Tony Gonzalez is no slouch.) Ryan’s ADP is gaining steam. In 12-team redraft leagues, Ryan was being taken near the middle of the seventh round, on average, as of mid-July; he’s now being taken a full round higher. In a lot of leagues, Ryan will be the sixth, seventh or eighth quarterback to come off the board.
That’s interesting, because the last time Ryan played in a meaningful game, he guided the Falcons to exactly zero points in a humiliating playoff loss to the Giants, who ranked 29th in pass defense last season. Eli Manning produced more points for the Falcons than Ryan did in that game, spotting Atlanta an early deuce by intentionally grounding the ball from his own endzone. Ryan completed 24-of-41 passes for 199 yards — less than five yards per attempt.
It would be easier to overlook Ryan’s postseason hiccup had he not been so badly outplayed by Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in the previous year’s playoffs. In that 48-21 loss at home, Ryan was 20-of-29 for 186 yards, with one TD pass and two interceptions, including a devastating pick-six thrown just before halftime.
So what? Why are you talking about playoff games? Fantasy owners are only concerned with the regular season, and Matty’s regular-season stats were good last year.
Fair enough. But Ryan’s shortcomings are often exposed when he’s asked to duel with truly elite passers like Rodgers, Drew Brees and, yes, Eli Manning. It’s hard to put Ryan in the elite class when it’s so painfully obvious that he doesn’t measure up against those guys head-to-head. The big reason why Ryan pales to his more accomplished peers is that he doesn’t handle the pass rush very well. Put heavy pressure on Ryan and he will show all the composure of a preteen girl at a One Direction concert.
A lack of poise when under duress is a problem for a quarterback whose offensive line is a notch below “meh” and whose left tackle is a sieve. For Falcons fans, the name Sam Baker elicits the sort of terror that children at Camp Crystal Lake feel when they hear the name Jason Voorhees. Baker and his cranky back will be responsible for protecting Ryan’s blind side. Be afraid, Matt Ryan fans. Be very afraid.
Ryan would do well to match last year’s numbers. A drop-off is far more likely than a jump to the elite level. And unless Ryan can make that improbable jump, there’s not an ice cream cone’s chance in hell that Jones and White are both going to finish as top-10 receivers.
Quintorris Lopez Jones — you should know Julio’s real name if you’re committed to reaching for him — does indeed look like a potential monster. Optimists note that his rookie numbers could have been positively sick had he not missed three games with a hamstring problem. (Pessimists owned Andre Johnson last year and know all about bad hamstrings.)
Thing is, if Jones is going to erupt for an epic season, White’s numbers are bound to fall off. White has averaged 100 catches over the past three seasons, with 29 TDs. And if White remains the steady, 100-catch, 1,200-yard guy he has been for so long, there’s no chance Jones is putting up Calvin Johnson-type numbers. There’s enough room in the margins for both to have good seasons, but it’s virtually impossible for both to live up to their current ADPs.
It’s a situation with vast potential for disappointment. There’s basically no chance I’ll end up with any of these three dudes in my drafts.
OR grab one you *think* will end up top 5 or 6.
Turner's YPC actually went up significantly last year. He's led the NFL in carries twice during his four years in Atlanta, but now he's too old to get a significant workload? Ridiculous.
