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Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Matthew Stafford Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :pickle: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
It's hard not to like what the Lions have done this off-season. The additions of Burleson, Scheffler, and Best should help tremendously. If Stafford can stay upright, he should be in for a nice season, although growing pains (and lots of int's) should still be expected.

510 attempts/304 completions, 3660 yards, 23 td's, 19 int's, 40 rushes, 210 yards, 2 td's

 
I like Matt Stafford but more as a possible #2 QB. He has not played all 16 games yet, the overall team is better but he is only in year 2 and needs a lot more time to season. I have seen him going off the board in the top20 and that seems like a possible stretch. Detroit is getting better on defense but it alos looks like they are committed to running the ball more and also more effectively with the Jahvid Best pick this past season.

The plus side though is an awesome #1 WR in Calvin Johnson, a decent #2 in Burlseon. Nice TE tandem now with the addition of Tony Scheffler. I like STafford in dynasty a lot more than I do in redrafts in 2010. If he can make it the whole season...

Projection: 285/500 attempts, 3,400 passing yds, 16 Tds, 13 Int, and 150 rush yds and 2 rush Tds.

But I have my doubts he can stay healthy the entire year.

 
I saw Matthew Stafford go QB10 in a recent 16-team league (SSL...full of active message boarders and staff) and was floored by that. But to be fair, that certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility for the young starter entering his 2nd season. Of course that presumes he makes a step function improvement in his own performance as well as benefits from a more cohesive offensive line, an emergence of a ground game, and a successful integration of Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler into his passing tree.

 
I see Stafford as a 20-20 guy this year. If your league does not have minus points for INTs Stafford should do pretty good. I also have concerns about Stafford staying healthy. The Lions line is suspect and Best will get run over in pass protection.

 
I like Stafford long term but this year is going to hurt. Having to face the NFC and AFC East will mean plenty of exotic defenses and plenty of disguised blitzes. I won't call it a sophomore slump but there will be growing pains in Detroit this season. And if K Smith starts the season on the PUP list then Stafford may become roadkill within those first 6 games with Best blocking for him.

Projections: 539att/3340/6.2 YPA/18/21 32car/130/2 for a ranking of QB22

 
Stafford was on pace for 3,600 yards and 21 Td's if he had played 16 games. Those are excellent numbers considering he was a rookie with very little to throw to besides a very banged up Calvin Johnson. Now they've added 2 legit targets in Burleson and Scheffler, a promising rookie in Best and Calvin should be healthly. If Stafford can stay healthy he should have no problem at all topping 3,600-21.

I'll say Stafford goes for:

3,850 yards

23 TD's

20 INT's

150 rushing yards

3 TD's

It wouldn't shock me at all if he surpassed any of those numbers. He's got tons of upside, especially if 2008 Calvin shows up.

 
I like Matt Stafford but more as a possible #2 QB. He has not played all 16 games yet, the overall team is better but he is only in year 2 and needs a lot more time to season. I have seen him going off the board in the top20 and that seems like a possible stretch. Detroit is getting better on defense but it alos looks like they are committed to running the ball more and also more effectively with the Jahvid Best pick this past season. The plus side though is an awesome #1 WR in Calvin Johnson, a decent #2 in Burlseon. Nice TE tandem now with the addition of Tony Scheffler. I like STafford in dynasty a lot more than I do in redrafts in 2010. If he can make it the whole season...Projection: 285/500 attempts, 3,400 passing yds, 16 Tds, 13 Int, and 150 rush yds and 2 rush Tds. But I have my doubts he can stay healthy the entire year.
You have him completing 84 more passes than last year, but only getting 3 more td's, yet throwing 7 less int's?
 
I saw Matthew Stafford go QB10 in a recent 16-team league (SSL...full of active message boarders and staff) and was floored by that. But to be fair, that certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility for the young starter entering his 2nd season. Of course that presumes he makes a step function improvement in his own performance as well as benefits from a more cohesive offensive line, an emergence of a ground game, and a successful integration of Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler into his passing tree.
Recent 16 Team Dynasty Start up Draft, Stafford went QB #11Draft Slot Overall # Player QB #

1.04 # 4 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB1

1.10 # 10 Brees, Drew NOS QB2

3.02 # 34 Schaub, Matt HOU QB3

3.03 # 35 Rivers, Philip SDC QB4

3.05 # 37 Manning, Peyton IND QB5

3.06 # 38 Cutler, Jay CHI QB6

3.16 # 48 Brady, Tom NEP QB7

4.01 # 49 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB8

4.06 # 54 Romo, Tony DAL QB9

4.07 # 55 McNabb, Donovan WAS QB10

5.05 # 69 Stafford, Matthew DET QB11

5.09 # 73 Manning, Eli NYG QB12

6.01 # 81 Ryan, Matt ATL QB13

7.15 # 111 Flacco, Joe BAL QB14

8.05 # 117 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB15

8.09 # 121 Palmer, Carson CIN QB16

9.12 # 140 Kolb, Kevin PHI QB17

10.07 # 151 Young, Vince TEN QB18

10.09 # 153 Henne, Chad MIA QB19

Seeing the value of a rebuiling offense with a struggling defense makes the QB & playmakers valuable fantasy options. Calvin could make J Russel look good...

Adding more weapons, Best, Scheffler & Burleson gives him added opportunity. He has the skill set, now he has the weapons.... all he needs is the time to do the job (depends on the OL).

Projection: 3345 yards 23 TD with 19 Int

Add a few scrambles for 2 more scores....

 
I saw Matthew Stafford go QB10 in a recent 16-team league (SSL...full of active message boarders and staff) and was floored by that. But to be fair, that certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility for the young starter entering his 2nd season. Of course that presumes he makes a step function improvement in his own performance as well as benefits from a more cohesive offensive line, an emergence of a ground game, and a successful integration of Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler into his passing tree.
Recent 16 Team Dynasty Start up Draft, Stafford went QB #11Draft Slot Overall # Player QB #

1.04 # 4 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB1

1.10 # 10 Brees, Drew NOS QB2

3.02 # 34 Schaub, Matt HOU QB3

3.03 # 35 Rivers, Philip SDC QB4

3.05 # 37 Manning, Peyton IND QB5

3.06 # 38 Cutler, Jay CHI QB6

3.16 # 48 Brady, Tom NEP QB7

4.01 # 49 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB8

4.06 # 54 Romo, Tony DAL QB9

4.07 # 55 McNabb, Donovan WAS QB10

5.05 # 69 Stafford, Matthew DET QB11

5.09 # 73 Manning, Eli NYG QB12

6.01 # 81 Ryan, Matt ATL QB13

7.15 # 111 Flacco, Joe BAL QB14

8.05 # 117 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB15

8.09 # 121 Palmer, Carson CIN QB16

9.12 # 140 Kolb, Kevin PHI QB17

10.07 # 151 Young, Vince TEN QB18

10.09 # 153 Henne, Chad MIA QB19

Seeing the value of a rebuiling offense with a struggling defense makes the QB & playmakers valuable fantasy options. Calvin could make J Russel look good...

Adding more weapons, Best, Scheffler & Burleson gives him added opportunity. He has the skill set, now he has the weapons.... all he needs is the time to do the job (depends on the OL).

Projection: 3345 yards 23 TD with 19 Int

Add a few scrambles for 2 more scores....
Stafford in a dynasty league, given his age, is a far different proposition than his outlook for the 2010 season IMHO.
 
Stafford was on pace for 3,600 yards and 21 Td's if he had played 16 games. Those are excellent numbers considering he was a rookie with very little to throw to besides a very banged up Calvin Johnson. Now they've added 2 legit targets in Burleson and Scheffler, a promising rookie in Best and Calvin should be healthly. If Stafford can stay healthy he should have no problem at all topping 3,600-21.I'll say Stafford goes for:3,850 yards23 TD's20 INT's150 rushing yards3 TD'sIt wouldn't shock me at all if he surpassed any of those numbers. He's got tons of upside, especially if 2008 Calvin shows up.
Stafford was also on pace to break the NFL INT record. Two of the leagues I play in have -3 for INTs. No way I will take stafford in those leagues. In other leagues those INTs will help you because the Lions will be playing from behind and Stafford will have to throw more.
 
Stafford was on pace for 3,600 yards and 21 Td's if he had played 16 games. Those are excellent numbers considering he was a rookie with very little to throw to besides a very banged up Calvin Johnson. Now they've added 2 legit targets in Burleson and Scheffler, a promising rookie in Best and Calvin should be healthly. If Stafford can stay healthy he should have no problem at all topping 3,600-21.I'll say Stafford goes for:3,850 yards23 TD's20 INT's150 rushing yards3 TD'sIt wouldn't shock me at all if he surpassed any of those numbers. He's got tons of upside, especially if 2008 Calvin shows up.
Stafford was also on pace to break the NFL INT record. Two of the leagues I play in have -3 for INTs. No way I will take stafford in those leagues. In other leagues those INTs will help you because the Lions will be playing from behind and Stafford will have to throw more.
Very true about the INT's. I believe that will come down a bit. He'll still likely be among the league leaders, but I don't think he'll threaten the record. A lot of that was a combo of being a rookie and having nobody to throw to. I'm not saying I'd take Stafford as a starter, but I think its very possible that's where he finishes.
 
I like Matt Stafford but more as a possible #2 QB. He has not played all 16 games yet, the overall team is better but he is only in year 2 and needs a lot more time to season. I have seen him going off the board in the top20 and that seems like a possible stretch. Detroit is getting better on defense but it alos looks like they are committed to running the ball more and also more effectively with the Jahvid Best pick this past season. The plus side though is an awesome #1 WR in Calvin Johnson, a decent #2 in Burlseon. Nice TE tandem now with the addition of Tony Scheffler. I like STafford in dynasty a lot more than I do in redrafts in 2010. If he can make it the whole season...Projection: 285/500 attempts, 3,400 passing yds, 16 Tds, 13 Int, and 150 rush yds and 2 rush Tds. But I have my doubts he can stay healthy the entire year.
You have him completing 84 more passes than last year, but only getting 3 more td's, yet throwing 7 less int's?
His Interceptions should go down, a bump in Tds...he is probably good for about a Td per game. So 84 more attempts...3 is about right.
 
Matt Stafford has a gifted arm and seemed to be grasping things fairly well in his rookie campaign. I like the Lions coaching staff, particularly the head coach and am lookiing forward to better results for the Lions.

In 09, Stafford had only four higher scoring fantasy games (FBG scoring) as he scored in the range of 19 against Washington, Chicago, and Minnesota and a boom game with 42 (422 yds passing and 5 TDs) against Cleveland. Otherwise, pretty pedestrian numbers. Other than that 422 yard outburst game, he averaged 185 yards passing per game.

As a team, the Lions passed 585 times and rushed 409, passing 58.9% of the time. Is Coach Schwartz an old school guy who will try to help his defense by running the ball more effectively? Undoubtedly he will try, but can they run enough to sustain the offense or will they continue to trail huge in games and be forced to try to play catch-up.

Many are expecting Jahvid Best to play well, but he doesn't seem the guy to pound the rock. I will be surprised if Kevin Smith is playing at the beginning of the season, let alone playing well, so I see continued high passing attempts for the Lions and Stafford.

Matt Stafford 16 gms 560 attempts 311 completions 55.5% 3640 yards 6.5 ypa 24 TDs and 26 ints 40 rushes 140 yards and 1 TD

 
Stafford IMO is going to improve at lot this year......got to like that DET went out and got some playmakers to go along with Calvin. Defense is still going to be suspect, so DET will need to air it out to be competitive. Still will probably make a lot of mistakes.

3300 passing, 21 TD, 19 Int

125 rushing, 1 TD

 
I do like what Stafford brings to the table, but I'd have preferred to see them spend one of their top 2 draft picks on an O-lineman to protect their investment in this guy.

Not sure what else I can say about the matter. I'm rather opinionated on the matter.

if you are going to develop a QB you need to give him every advantage you can, and good pass protection is high on the list of things you should have when developing a young QB.

 
i don't see much improvement this year for stafford. the line still needs work and he'll still hurried. he will throw 20 pick with ease and i dont partuclarly like the "notable" improvemnets in the run game. I've seen best play in person at cal and the dude is tiiiiinnnnnyyyyy. it wouldnt be so much of a big deal but he also plays small and is wreckless. i dont like to predict injuries, but this guy could get hurt early and often. I just dont see him easing the pressure on the pass game. long year for detroit, but things are getting slightly better.

3300

17 td's

20 int

 
I think we all know it but I'm not sure we're incorporating how difficult it is to play QB in this league as a rookie. I say that because I see a lot of people saying they like Stafford but they they predict he's still going to throw more INT's than TD's.

Keep in mind Peyton Manning threw 26 Td's and 28 INT's his first year in the NFL. The second year he was 26 and 15 and then 33 and 15. Although it's difficult to compare anyone to Peyton Manning, it's definately possible for a guy to throw a lot of ugly INT's his first year and then turn it around in just his 2nd year.

I think the Lions have added some decent weapons on offense. They're offensive line is still poor but I really saw some flashes of brilliance last year from Stafford and I'd be surprised if he doesn't take a step forward. I do think we'll see more INT's than he'll want by seasons end but I don't see him throwing more INT's than TD's.

3580 yards, 25 td's with 20 INT's

 
I think we all know it but I'm not sure we're incorporating how difficult it is to play QB in this league as a rookie. I say that because I see a lot of people saying they like Stafford but they they predict he's still going to throw more INT's than TD's.

Keep in mind Peyton Manning threw 26 Td's and 28 INT's his first year in the NFL. The second year he was 26 and 15 and then 33 and 15. Although it's difficult to compare anyone to Peyton Manning, it's definately possible for a guy to throw a lot of ugly INT's his first year and then turn it around in just his 2nd year.

I think the Lions have added some decent weapons on offense. They're offensive line is still poor but I really saw some flashes of brilliance last year from Stafford and I'd be surprised if he doesn't take a step forward. I do think we'll see more INT's than he'll want by seasons end but I don't see him throwing more INT's than TD's.

3580 yards, 25 td's with 20 INT'
As a UGA fan, I've been watching Stafford for years. He is obviously an awesome talent but like most players (not named Tebow) it just takes him a while to get going when he transitions to the next league. He played very similar in his rookie year than he did as a true freshman - throwing picks left and right and taking too many risks. Once he gets adjusted to the speed of the game and starts making better decisions it will be a totally different story for him. Also, one of his best assets is his use of the play action pass and the Lions were so bad on defense that nobody respected the run. Assuming he can remain healthy, look for steady improvement from Stafford in all areas.Stafford College Stats

Year/Comp/Att/Yards/%/YPA/LNG/TD/INT/SACKS/RATING

2006 135 256 1749 52.7 6.83 53 7 13 12 108.99

2007 194 348 2523 55.7 7.25 84 19 10 15 128.92

2008 235 383 3459 61.4 9.03 78 25 10 17 153.5

 

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