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There is no way I'd be comfortable with Mendy as my RB2 this season. To me, he is a RB3 with some upside. The upside is contingent on Williams being hurt or severely outplayed to the point there is no time share and Arz is able to turn around this pathetic offense they have. Both are possible but not likely IMO. I'd rank Mendy in the RB30 range right now, subject to change as news comes in.
Why would you parse his words like that? It is an internet message board.
Were you drunk when you wrote this? Or just having a hard time reading?
He also said that within minutes of Pittsburgh drafting him....and then proceeded to never, ever utilize him as such.Wouldn't be holding my breath on that.
I think in Dec/Jan a lot of the reason people liked him was because they thought Arians would want to bring him back and have him compete with Ballard in IND. The irony here is that this best case scenario kind of did happen, just Arians screwed everything up by taking a job in ARI before FA started. So Mendenhall supporters can claim to have read part of the situation right, in that a team or even a certain coach for a team would bring him in to compete to start. However, the inference they took that this would dramatically change his value was wrong. If your dynasty rankings looked like this on Feb 9
You did not read the situation correctly.
I'm not having a hard time reading at all. Perhaps you should go back and read the post he is refering to. I'll provide it;
Nothing about this suggests Arz is a likely destination. This is simply broad statement of teams with needs at the RB position and there are 11 teams mentioned. Not 1 or 2 or even 5 that narrow it down in the least bit. This is a blanket list of teams with RB needs with no specifics on any of them being likely or not. Of course Mendy was likely to land on 1 of these 11 teams. Naming 35% of the teams in the NFL in a general way here and then later parlaying that into some sort of conviction of the one he ends up on as you're "likely destination" are 2 drastically different things. Any one of us could do this with just about every FA out there. Simply list a slew of teams with needs at a position and say player X who plays that position is likley to sign within these 35% of the leagues teams.
This is a stupid semantical argument you are creating, for reasons that are really not clear.
Mendenhall (and Gore for that matter) over Nicks and Cobb is a team killing mistake in any dynasty or keeper format. Bad enough to make any "worst ever" list.I'd also say Mendenhall's chances of finishing in the top 20 RBs in PPG are minimal in 2013. In PPR leagues he won't be top 25.
"obvious potential destination" vs. "one of the likely destinations". Wow, you are really nit picking here. That wasn't even his point, and I certainly didnt read it as someone taking credit for a call. His point, as I read it, was simply that if the AZ signing was not unexpected and if he liked it then, why then would his signing there now change his mind about the overall situation? In this context, "obvious potential destination" and "one of the likely destinations" are the same things. Context is important.
EBF has been a steady supporter and believer in Mendenhalls talent pretty much before he even entered the NFL.My first pass at some new dynasty RB rankingsoug MartinTrent Richardson ---------------------------Ray RiceCJ SpillerJamaal CharlesLeSean McCoy --------------------------- Arian FosterAdrian PetersonMarshawn Lynch ---------------------------Ryan MathewsAlfred MorrisStevan RidleyRashard MendenhallDavid WilsonDeMarco MurrayJonathan Stewart After you get past those guys, you are mainly left to choose between low probability prospects and low longevity veterans. I think the context of your team becomes a major driving factor. For example, on a rebuilding team I would not want MJD or Chris Johnson. On a contender, Bernard Pierce and Bryce Brown would not do me a lot of good. Rather than trying to mix these groups together, I kept them separate. The old guys:Matt ForteChris JohnsonMaurice Jones-DrewBenjarvus Green-EllisDarren McFaddenReggie Bush---------------------Darren SprolesFrank GoreSteven Jackson---------------------DeAngelo WilliamsKnowshon MorenoShonn Greene---------------------Felix JonesFred JacksonCedric Benson The prospects:Bernard PierceBryce BrownBen TateMikel LeshoureLamar MillerLaMichael JamesMark IngramRobert Turbin--------------Vick BallardDaryl RichardsonRonnie Hillman--------------Quizz RodgersToby GerhartBrandon BoldenJonathan Dwyer---------------Chris IvoryDuJuan HarrisKendall HunterDaniel Thomas
So basically you are saying he never admits a mistake?
We know.
I suppose you could see it that way.I was just taking issue with people who seem to be suggesting that EBF is only supporting Mendenhall after the signing.
That might be the perception, but it's far from reality. As I've mentioned elsewhere, there have been other players that I rated highly and bailed on within a year. Moreno and Ingram came into the NFL more recently than Mendenhall. I was reasonably high on both at one point and now I wouldn't give up a 1st round rookie pick for either. If it were true that I never admitted mistakes or changed my mind on players, wouldn't I still be touting those guys as great buys? When I have clear and decisive evidence that an evaluation is wrong, I change it. As far as Mendenhall is concerned, I'm not quite sure where people get the idea that I thought he was some all-world mega star. That isn't and hasn't ever been the case.
Apart from being wrong about his durability, I don't see anything too outrageous there. When he's been healthy, he's more or less been the exact guy I thought he'd be. Obviously you can point to last season as evidence that he's finished, but there were lots of factors at work (recovering from injury, poor supporting cast, attitude problems). He had a good three year stretch from 2009-2011 when he averaged 265 carries and 1103 rushing yards per season (4.17 YPC). If people want to believe that he's useless crap, fine. I don't think his body of work supports that stance. In his five year NFL career he's been a productive starter more often than not.
My guess is that if you want to buy low, it is probably best to include him in a larger deal where he is not the focus of the trade. Ive offered various picks for him to test the market (in one a third rounder, in another a second rounder and yet another 2 third rounders) and have gotten quick rejections in each.
I think cutting Kolb just means its even more likely the Cards take Geno Smith, which would be a boost for Mendy IMO.
Resigning Hoyer most likely means one of Lindly or Skelton is gone, maybe both.
I think Mendy needs to win the starting job first before he's even in a position to get a "boost". I don't think he's going to be given the job. I fully expect it to be a competition with Ryan Williams and my money is on Williams but again that's just a matter of opinion and I won't be surprised to see it turn out the other way. Fact is both have had some injury issues, Williams much more often and severely, and good chance both end up starting games for the Cardinals next season.I will add one more thing and I'm sure some of you will dismiss this as crazy talk but if you examine Mendenhall's contract I think it's very reasonable to conclude that he's far from a lock to make the opening day roster and is going to need to show well in camp to stick.His contract only guaranteed him $500,000 or 1/5th of his pay. Compare that contract to some of the other contracts you saw some players accept on so called "prove it deals". Brandon Myers got $1.5 million of his $2.25 million one year deal guaranteed. Dustin Keller got $2.25 millions of his one year deal guaranteed. These are one year "prove it" deals where the teams are taking a bit of a gamble on the signings and paying the majority of pay in guarantees. I can't come up with guarantees for some other one year prove it deals, like for Michael Bennett and Talib but I feel pretty confident the guarantees are more than $500,000 and more than 1/5th of their one year salary.Mendenhalls contract simply tells me the Cardinals signed him as a low risk $500,000 gamble and if they like what they see they'll exercise the right to gamble on him for the season at an extra $2 million but I don't think it should be considered a guarantee at this time or shocking if it does not happen. It also gives them the chance to trade him if they want an incur a minimal cap hit. I think it's a fantastic job by the Cardinals of getting him signed cheaply with little guarantees so they have a lot of options, one of which is making sure Ryan Williams is healthy.
Nice work. As usual, excellent information beyond what has been widely discussed. Sounds more like a "Lets see what you got" (in camp) then a one-year prove it deal.
Wow. I wasn't aware of this, and agree with your conclusion.
But Arizona is a great place to land....
Yeah, that talk has to be out the window now. I was honestly expecting the majority of the 2.5 to be guaranteed, and still thought it was a bad sign. At 500,000...
I hope my league-mates haven't seen this, as I'll likely try to get Williams where I can. I'll even keep an eye out for Mendy, but won't pay the price of anyone expecting him to start.Is that really about the landing spot or what the contract tells us about his skills/health/attitude or what the NFL thinks about his skills/health/attitude? If he landed on the Niners (a fairly middle of the road landing spot) with a similar contract, would it have been better? I would argue no. The Giants, definite no. After some time has past since the signing, I am now in the camp (if there is one) that the landing in Arizona is neither patently good nor bad (after previously leaning towards bad following the aftermath of the Denver letdown) and that we are all just guessing at this point.
CKC,.this is exactly what I was trying to say above. If you'd like, reread what I wrote above and my comments have almost exclusively been aimed at the terrible contract he received. The contract he got speaks volumes. When I stated that above, I was told "yeah, but at least he's in Arizona where he's got a chance to start. It could be worse if he landed somewhere else behind a starter". My comment that you quoted wasn't a shot at him landing in Arizona. My comment above was a shot at those saying Arizona was good for him to land while playing down the contract he received as if it's normal to get that low of a payday in a "show me" deal.
I agree that the contract is not a good sign no matter the spin. But does it not matter that he has a chance to start as well?
Where was he linked to in which he wouldn't have had a chance to start? EBF made a nice sized list of potential landing spots. How can Arizona not be near the bottom of that list?
Ultimately, he needs carries to have any value, and the easiest way to do that is by having the least amount of competition. Arizona provides this.
Why does it matter where he was linked? Does it mean that if he didn't sign in AZ or Denver, that he couldn't have landed elsewhere where he wasn't supposedly "linked"? Would it have been inconceivable for example that he could have landed as a backup on the NY Giants? If he was only linked in Arizona, does that mean that Arizona would have been a good landing spot? The fact that he was most recently linked in Denver is irrelevant imo to how good or bad AZ was outside of the expectations letdown. EBF's list was for what he thought were potential starting spots, not all potential landing spots (iirc), and whatever his intent, the list does not cover all potential landing spots (unless he has inside info that we don't) - and it was only for 10 or so teams in the first place. Whether AZ was bottom of that list still puts it ahead of at least half of the league's other teams. Any team potentially could have been a landing spot if the price were low enough (e.g., at minimum wage for his year). We don't know where he could have landed if he hadn't signed with AZ.
MiamiNew York JetsSteelersColtsBroncosRaidersLionsPackersFalconsRamsHere's the list, minus AZ. If we are so worried about him beating out teh guys on these rosters, why is it likely he'll beat out Williams?
Why does the contract he received matter at this point? Yes, the NFL wasn't throwing money at a player that had a real poor season coming off an ACL injury and has had his share of "team cancer" moments.None of the really matters now though. He has a good opportunity to be a starter (yes in a poor situation) with a coach that thought enough of him to bring him along for his first head coaching job.He'll either perform now and increase his value (in real life and in fantasy football) or he won't. What he's making isn't an issue going forward - other than making it easier for his team to cut him - but that will only happen if he doesn't perform.
This is particularly true if he is in fact the mediocre talent that the NFL seems to think he is at this point. If that is the case, there aren't too many landing spots better than AZ I suppose (Jets maybe?).
The argument is that the low salary and cut-friendly contract suggests the NFL is more worried about having to turn him loose than we knew beforehand.Could be the attitude, could be the knee, could be lack of production in the last couple years. Or all of the above. But they're definitely worried about something.
I don't know if I want to go as far as "likely", but the reasons would be:1. His former OC is a new Head Coach and thought enough of him to bring him on board, and on some level is staking his job on Mendenhall.2. Williams and Mendenhall are similar talents but Mendenhall is arguably the better overall RB.3. Williams has had difficulties staying healthy dating back to his college years.4. Williams being an "incumbent" is negated by having a new HC with a hole new offense.
It matter (in the fantasy world) because it likely tells us how the NFL views him. Unless the NFL view is irrelevant to you in evaluating players (it is very relevant to me), then his contract in this case matters.
What is your point about this list? EBF indicated that ALL of these spots, including AZ, would have been good ones (or so I thought). The fact that AZ may have been at the bottom of this list (which I dont believe to be the case) doesn't matter.
If he's not good enough start for the other 31 teams, I don't see it mattering that, today, he only has Ryan Williams in front of him. He went to a team that doesn't use the back much in the passing game, with a very poor run-blocking offensive line, and who finished 31st in offensive TDs per game with 1.6.I'd much rather him go to NYG and battle Andre Brown for a RBBC spot than end up in AZ. KC too. There are teams where he wouldn't start, but where he value could be better than it is in AZ, in my opinion.
I understand that. My point is that what the NFL currently thinks of him is established, but going forward those thoughst will either be vindicated or changed to a more positive view.I guess if you were looking to "buy" or "sell" it would matter to some degree, but as far as what will happen going forward it really doesn't.
He said "Some of the obvious potential destinations:", so I don't take that to mean good landing spots. But I don't won't to put words in his mouth, since he didn't specify. My point is that I don't think it's a good landing spot. Like you, I'm simply sharing my opinion and reasoning behind it. As for the list, it is teams likely to have been in the market for Mendenhall, of which Arizona is one of the worst, in terms of his fantas value.At a certain point, bad is bad. If there were only 4-5 good landing spots, and Arizona wasn't one of them, it's still a bad landing spot, regardless of it's rank among the junk.
This. By and large, the people who are down on him after the signing are the people who were down on him before the signing. And the people who still think he has value are the people who were fans before the signing. Both sides can come up with plenty of reasons to explain why he's going to flop/succeed. Rehashing the same arguments again and again is just a waste of time and energy. At this point I'm content to let it play out and see what happens. As for the Arizona landing spot, the one year contract and poor performance of their 2011 RBs means it's less than ideal. On the other hand, it's far from catastrophic either. He could've gone to a team with a solid starter or he could still be sitting on the couch like Beanie Wells and Ahmad Bradshaw. The people painting this as a disaster likely weren't very high on Mendenhall all along and probably needed a great outcome (like him signing a big deal with Denver or Detroit) to get excited.
It certainly matters. I mean, that is about the only positive spin to take from this. If you believe in him and think he can eventually be a starter again, then at least Arizona isn't going to provide THAT much of a roadblock to it. That said, those assuming it's his job over Ryan Williams are mistaken, IMO. Similarly, the contract is far more of a negative than the potential to start in Arizona is a positive. The only reason I bothered to post in here at all (because I honestly don't really care about Mendenhall one way or the other) is that Mendenhall supporters were pointing to that as a positive while seemingly ignoring the MUCH bigger negative of the contract length, size, and guaranteed money (which I didn't even realize was that bad). In fact, the idea that he may not even be on the roster come week 1 is an idea I didn't even consider until seeing that money and I believe is definitely a possibility. For those paying "cheap starting RB" prices for him in trades may be very disappointed (like Helu last year). I don't dislike Mendenhall personally. If he can revive his career, then good for him. If those who buy get rewarded for it, then good for them as well. I just find it amusing when ardent supporters of a player clearly ignore BIG RED FLAGS (i.e. his contract and lack of interest elsewhere in relation to it) while clinging to small glimmers of hope (yay, he could start in Arizona). My comment earlier today about it was just some sarcasm about trying to find the positive in a sea of negatives. If these supporters get rewarded for their persistence, good for them.
he's my RB1. 32 team league, I'm okay with that.
Ernol.
