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Mendenhall (1 Viewer)

eefflrat

Footballguy
Mendenhall is one of the more intriguing fas this offseason to me. Yes he's coming off an injury in 2012, and never really looked like much during the year, but he's a former first round draft pick, he's 25 years old, can handle a full load, has decent power and hands aren't bad out of the backfield. At times he's looked slow, has fumbled a few times(mostly early in his career), and clearly looked bad last year, but I really see him landing a full time gig next year again, and expect he'll be a workhorse back.Perhaps he resigns in Pitt with the new BZS, but I would think there's a chance of replacing turner in Atlanta or finding his way to Green Bay, among other places starving for an rb.would Arians be interested in Arizona?Where is the most likely landing spot?

 

Craig_MiamiFL

Footballguy
I would say yes he'll be starting in 2013. May have to compete for a job, but fairly confident he'll be starting somewhere.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Where is the most likely landing spot?
Who knows? A guy like this probably has no shortage of fans in NFL front offices, in part because of what he did in Pittsburgh and in part because of what he did at Illinois. I've made my thoughts on Mendy known in some of the other threads on here. I think he's likely be starting somewhere in the NFL next season. He's not a perfect back, but there are 32 teams in the NFL and not all of them can roll out Adrian Peterson every week. With that in mind, I think Mendenhall fits snugly into the tier of "not a Pro Bowler, but good enough to start for somebody." The Jay Cutler or Dwayne Bowe of running backs, if you will. I think this is a good time to buy him. I've compared him to Cedric Benson and Marshawn Lynch, two other former first round picks whose stock went cold after they washed out of their first franchise. I don't think Mendenhall is quite as talented as Lynch. He's not as agile or as good in space. However, I think he's better than Benson. More explosive with much better speed. I think someone will sign him for a reasonable price and stick him in the starting lineup. And I think the results they'll get will be somewhere between what Cincinnati got out of Benson and what Seattle has gotten out of Lynch. Solid, unspectacular veterans like this are sometimes underrated in the rush to find the next big thing. People are excited about players like Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard. Meanwhile a guy like Mendenhall, who's a much more proven commodity, is treated like trash. I think that's a bit of a mistake. When players get into the NFL, the context changes. A guy like Mendenhall no longer looks like an awesome talent when you compare him to all of the starting RBs in the NFL. But when you compare him to the backs available in any given draft class, you realize that he'd be the first or second back drafted most years. Remember this guy?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7OiYXlBEZUHe's pretty good. His attitude is a little bit of concern. I don't think he has a lot of heart or a warrior's spirit. But at the end of the day, talent is talent. 5'10" 225 pound first round RBs who can rip off 4.41 in the 40 don't come around very often. I don't think his career is over just yet.
 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
RBBC at best. It's not a popular opinion here because a lot of people are pretty heavily invested in him, but the guy had 1 good season. He had 3 fantasy relevant seasons due to being the lead back on a good team, but he was not impressive in his 2nd and 3rd heavy workload seasons. He did about what any other RB in the NFL would have done with that many carries. In the last 3 years, he averaging under 4 ypc. Despite his sub-par performance history, he thinks he should be paid like a starter. He'll probably have a crappy attitude when this doesn't occur and he isn't handed a job.On top of all this, he seems to be a bit of a dumb@55. The one thing that stands out to me is his tweeting about bin laden, but I feel like he's had a couple other twitter mishaps. At the very least, he pissed off his coaches last year by not even coming to the game when he was deactivated. I'm sure that didn't endear him to any potential suitors.To me, this has all the signs of a guy riding off into the sunset. I was really interested in him coming out of Illinois and thought he was on the path to stardom after his second season. I was wrong.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)

 

eefflrat

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
That's what I'm thinking too. Not blind in thinking that he will immediately put up Lynch numbers, but it will be in the contract he signs. If someone signs him to be their number one RB he should be in line for a very good year.
 

Kitrick Taylor

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
First off, I was dead wrong about Lynch when he left the Bills. But I think people point to Lynch/Thomas Jones type situations and think Mendy is a good bet to repeat those success stories. Yes, it could go that way for him. However, I was completely right to be highly suspect of Robert Meachem last season. Sometimes a turd is just a turd despite what opportunity and the money would have you believe.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
But Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. I wouldn't look to Lynch as a likely outcome. I wouldn't pay any attention to Lynch, actually, when projecting Mendy's likely outcomes.
 

eefflrat

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
First off, I was dead wrong about Lynch when he left the Bills. But I think people point to Lynch/Thomas Jones type situations and think Mendy is a good bet to repeat those success stories. Yes, it could go that way for him. However, I was completely right to be highly suspect of Robert Meachem last season. Sometimes a turd is just a turd despite what opportunity and the money would have you believe.
I'd have to go over the threads , but were people really high on Meachem? I mean he was 27 years old and benefitted occasionaly from catching the long ball in an offense that passed for 5000 yards every year.I'm not saying Mendehall is going to be lynch production wise, but is he really a turd? I guess we'll see.
 

treat88

Footballguy
I can see the situational comparison between Mendenhall and Lynch.I can kinda see the physical comparison between Mendenhall and Lynch.However, I don't see any similarities whatsoever in their running styles. Mendenhall is simply not a physical back. Despite his apparent size/strength he has always been a finesse runner.The OL/RB discussion is always a bit of a chicken and an egg thing and Pitt's OL play has been pretty poor during Mendenhall's tenure there...but Mendenhall has done them no favors either. He demonstrates very poor vision in finding his interior cutback lanes, demonstrates little to no creativity at the LOS, and goes down on first contact far too often for a back his size...all things Lynch excels at.If he gets a lane, he's got the burst and acceleration to do get upfield quickly, at least he did pre injury. He can stick his foot in the ground and get upfield on off tackle and outside runs. If he gets to the second level with speed he can make guys miss.Basically, if a play is well blocked and he can get to the second level he can be dangerous. If he has to create yards on his own to get to the second level he is very average.As purely runners, Lynch and Mendenhall could not be more different.He's talented enough to get a chance somewhere, he may even produce...especially in a ZBS system, but the Lynch comp is way off base.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Just for a baseline comparison. In a 14 team PPR devy league(meaning rookie picks are diluted), I traded the 1.6 rookie pick for Mendenhall and Santonio Holmes. I'm not expecting top 10 finishes, but i'll buy at that cost every time.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
But Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. I wouldn't look to Lynch as a likely outcome. I wouldn't pay any attention to Lynch, actually, when projecting Mendy's likely outcomes.
The similarity (IMO) is people discounting a somewhat troubled, but talented back in a bad situation where he's worn out his welcome.Talent is talent. It doesn't just go away.If you didn't already think Mendenhall is talented there's no reason to think so going forward. If you did, I think you're making a mistake looking at his career to date and changing your mind.That's the parallel.
 

Kitrick Taylor

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
But Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. I wouldn't look to Lynch as a likely outcome. I wouldn't pay any attention to Lynch, actually, when projecting Mendy's likely outcomes.
The similarity (IMO) is people discounting a somewhat troubled, but talented back in a bad situation where he's worn out his welcome.Talent is talent. It doesn't just go away.If you didn't already think Mendenhall is talented there's no reason to think so going forward. If you did, I think you're making a mistake looking at his career to date and changing your mind.That's the parallel.
I totally get what you are saying, and think Mendy has a reasonably good shot at succeeding (RB2) at his next stop. However, it seems like with the success of Lynch and to a lesser extent Moreno, a lot of people are jumping on board this notion of 2nd chance RBs. The reason Mendy is likely to leave the Steelers isn't completely on the Steelers and their Oline. Mendy has weaknesses in his game, and they could be exposed even more depending upon his next stop. (What would his prospects be in Arizona?)
 

EBF

Footballguy
However, it seems like with the success of Lynch and to a lesser extent Moreno, a lot of people are jumping on board this notion of 2nd chance RBs.
Shouldn't they be? It's not like it's a unique phenomenon. Thomas Jones. Larry Johnson. Cedric Benson. Rashard Mendenhall. Knowshon Moreno. You could even say CJ Spiller after his rookie year (283 rushing yards at 3.8 YPC). I think the reason these buy low opportunities come along every year is because of a flaw in the way most people play dynasty. Way too much emphasis on what happened yesterday. "Oh, Mendenhall was a first round pick, a three year starter, and has one of the best size/speed ratios of any NFL RB? Well he didn't produce last year so he sucks." It's easy to fall prey to this kind of thinking. After Benson washed out of Chicago, I had the opportunity to acquire him for a 2nd round rookie pick in a 14 team start 2 RB dev league. After Lynch washed out of Buffalo, I had the opportunity to get him in the 7th-8th round of a 14 team start 2 RB league. In both cases I passed. In both cases it was a huge mistake. As Rob said, talent doesn't just disappear overnight. If a RB managed to get picked in the first round, he's probably pretty talented. If everyone else has given up on him, he might be a nice investment. Yes, there are guys like William Green and Laurence Maroney who simply wash out of the league for one reason or another, but in general I think it's smart to consider making a move any time you have the chance to get a "next big thing" RB prospect who has fallen out of favor. In Mendenhall's case, he has already proven that he can be a solid, mid-level NFL starter over the course of an entire NFL season. So it's not like we're talking about a complete bust here. Provided that he stays healthy and motivated, there's almost no way that he doesn't provide a good return on the modest cost it would take to acquire him.
 

Banger

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
But Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. I wouldn't look to Lynch as a likely outcome. I wouldn't pay any attention to Lynch, actually, when projecting Mendy's likely outcomes.
The similarity (IMO) is people discounting a somewhat troubled, but talented back in a bad situation where he's worn out his welcome.Talent is talent. It doesn't just go away.If you didn't already think Mendenhall is talented there's no reason to think so going forward. If you did, I think you're making a mistake looking at his career to date and changing your mind.That's the parallel.
The Bills had F. Jax who performed very well and made Lynch expendable and they got some picks for him...the Steelers have nothing behind him yet they don't want him. It's possible Mendenhall emerges from the scrap heap I personally doubt it since he doesn't have any one part of his game that he excels at.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I just don't see why a team would want to spend starter money on Mendy. Average RBs are not hard to find. Granted, I would have said the same thing about BJGE, but it seems like a horrible investment for an NFL team. There is a reason the Steelers won't be bringing him back, despite being the ones who spent the draft pick on him.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Shouldn't they be? It's not like it's a unique phenomenon. Thomas Jones. Larry Johnson. Cedric Benson. Rashard Mendenhall. Knowshon Moreno. You could even say CJ Spiller after his rookie year (283 rushing yards at 3.8 YPC).
Larry Johnson didn't do anything after leaving KC and did fine as soon as he got his shot. Spiller isn't really applicable. We're not talking about an elite talent who hasn't had a shot yet. Moreno had two games above 4 YPC: KC,BAL. We are taking major leaps by assuming he "bounced back". He benefited from the offense he played in, only as a result of injury. He was a volume guy on a team that involves the RB heavily in the passing game. So really, It's Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Larry Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch, that come to mind. Lynch being the only guy to re-establish dynasty RB1 value. So if we are paying RB2 prices today, we're paying best case scenario prices, which is never wise. For the price, give me Felix Jones as a bounce back candidate. At least he's free.
 
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Kitrick Taylor

Footballguy
Shouldn't they be? It's not like it's a unique phenomenon. Thomas Jones. Larry Johnson. Cedric Benson. Rashard Mendenhall. Knowshon Moreno. You could even say CJ Spiller after his rookie year (283 rushing yards at 3.8 YPC).
Larry Johnson didn't do anything after leaving KC and did fine as soon as he got his shot. Spiller isn't really applicable. We're not talking about an elite talent who hasn't had a shot yet. Moreno had two games above 4 YPC: KC,BAL. We are taking major leaps by assuming he "bounced back". He benefited from the offense he played in, only as a result of injury. He was a volume guy on a team that involves the RB heavily in the passing game. So really, It's Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Larry Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch, that come to mind. Lynch being the only guy to re-establish dynasty RB1 value. So if we are paying RB2 prices today, we're paying best case scenario prices, which is never wise. For the price, give me Felix Jones as a bounce back candidate. At least he's free.
That's my point as well. I think his upside is likely a RB2. I think there's a reasonable chance it happens too. The problem that I'm finding is people are valuing him like he's a top 20 back. At least that's what I'm finding looking into trades for Mendy. Given the realities of today's NFL, I think it's pretty likely he ends up either in a horrible situation (like Arizona), or in a full blown time share, or both. Why would I want to blow a hole in my WR corp, or trade away a high draft pick for that? If the price was more along the lines of RB30, I'd be more than interested.
 

EBF

Footballguy
So really, It's Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Larry Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch, that come to mind. Lynch being the only guy to re-establish dynasty RB1 value. So if we are paying RB2 prices today, we're paying best case scenario prices, which is never wise.
Jones and Benson didn't have a 1000+ yard season until they had changed teams, so of course they couldn't "re-establish dynasty RB1 value." They never had it in the first place. Jones didn't have a 1000+ yard season until his sixth year in the NFL. Benson didn't do it until his fifth. Mendenhall did it in his second season, which was his first year as a starter and his first real opportunity (he was injured early in his rookie year when Parker was still on the team). He followed that up with a 1200+ yard season in his third year. If he hadn't torn his ACL in week 15 of the following year, he likely would've topped 1000+ rushing yards for three straight years. He's no worse than Benson, and Benson had 1109 carries and 4176 rushing yards combined in four seasons after leaving the Bears as a forgotten man at 25 years old (the same age as Mendenhall). This is a very similar situation. Mendenhall will likely get a modest contract elsewhere and emerge as the starter by virtue of being the most talented RB on the roster. And if he stays healthy, he'll probably yield 2-4 more top 10-20 RB seasons. Good value for the price. You mentioned that he has no upside at RB2 cost. That's not true, but it's beside the point. He isn't being drafted as a RB2. In most of the startups I've seen this year, he's fallen outside the top 25 RBs. And he definitely represents value beyond that point. If you take him as RB30 and he only performs as RB20, you've still done very well for yourself. A lot of people think he sucks and that he was only relevant because of the volume he received. The first thing I'd point out is that you don't get 200+ carries for three seasons in a row in the NFL if you suck. There's too much competition for places. The second thing I'd point out is that this widespread belief that he's garbage is the very reason why he's such a good value play. If this were 2010 and he was in the midst of another top 12 season, you wouldn't have the opportunity to buy him at anything less than RB1 prices because all of his owners would be stoked on him. The (IMO misguided) idea that he's garbage is what has created this nice buy window. That's where the parallels with Larry Johnson, Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, and Marshawn Lynch come into play. I was around on these boards when all of those guys were considered worthless busts. This is just history repeating itself. Same phenomenon. Different name. You've been a big time Ingram supporter in other threads. And here you're talking down a guy who was just as good in college, was a higher draft pick, has better speed at the same weight, was more productive in his first two seasons, and has a higher career YPC. I'd take a step back and reconsider that for a minute.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Jones and Benson didn't have a 1000+ yard season until they had changed teams, so of course they couldn't "re-establish dynasty RB1 value." They never had it in the first place. Jones didn't have a 1000+ yard season until his sixth year in the NFL.
That wasn't the point I was making. We can use "establish" where applicable.
He's no worse than Benson, and Benson had 1109 carries and 4176 rushing yards combined in four seasons after leaving the Bears as a forgotten man at 25 years old (the same age as Mendenhall).
On how many teams would Benson start? On how many teams would he be the best option by such a wide margin that he is essentially a 3 down back? Being "no worse" than Cedric Benson is not much of a claim, when it comes to dynasty value.
A lot of people think he sucks and that he was only relevant because of the volume he received. The first thing I'd point out is that you don't get 200+ carries for three seasons in a row in the NFL if you suck. There's too much competition for places.
Who has said suck? I have seen average used a lot, which is my opinion of him. Have any per/touch metric that suggests otherwise?
The second thing I'd point out is that this widespread belief that he's garbage is the very reason why he's such a good value play.
Not really with you, here.
I was around on these boards when all of those guys were considered worthless busts. This is just history repeating itself. Same phenomenon. Different name.
And where does Shonn Greene fit in here? Or Felix Jones? Or Beanie Wells? Or Donald Brown? Or Knowshon Moreno? Or Joseph Addai?
You've been a big time Ingram supporter in other threads. And here you're talking down a guy who was just as good in college, was a higher draft pick, has better speed at the same weight, was more productive in his first two seasons, and has a higher career YPC. I'd take a step back and reconsider that for a minute.
Ingram hasn't had the opportunity that Mendenhall has. And if you're familiar with my stance on Ingram, you should be familiar with my stance on his YPC. Ingram has better vision, is quicker, and, in my opinion, a better football player.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Since we're talking about Cedric Benson, he wasn't more productive in Cincy, he just got more carries. If there are teams willing to pay for 4YPC, I am sure Mendy can give them that. But Cincy is rare, both in their willingness to pay $ for 4YPC, and not look for upgrades over 4YPC. I don't see many teams out there like that.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I think the point you're missing is that sometimes 4 YPC is what you have to settle for. In a perfect world every team would be starting Adrian Peterson or MJD, but players of that caliber are rare. It's the same thing at QB. Every team would love to start Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. But there's only one Peyton Manning and there's only one Drew Brees. For the 30 teams in the NFL who don't have one of those guys, you have to make do with someone else. And that's how guys like Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick end up being multi-year starters for NFL teams. Mendenhall is basically the RB version of Cutler. He didn't quite live up to his billing. He's not really an amazing player. He's a bit of a tease and a malcontent. But at the end of the day, he's one of the top 15-25 players in the NFL at his position, and that's why he'll end up starting for somebody. To answer your question about Benson and Shonn Greene, they were the best RBs on their teams. That's why they started and got all the carries. If it was that easy to find a superior replacement, their teams would've done it. But it's not actually that easy to find a back who can handle 300+ carries at 4+ YPC. Just like it's not easy to find an upgrade over Matt Hasselbeck or Jay Cutler. There might only be 1-2 guys in a given draft class who will end up being clearly better, and you have to hope that you pick right.I don't want to start an Ingram vs. Mendenhall tangent, but your stance on the two players makes you look like a hypocrite. Mendenhall has a higher career YPC playing on a less explosive offense. He was a higher draft pick. He has better combine numbers across the board. Better broad jump, better shuttle, better vertical leap, better bench press, heavier, better 10 yard time, and much better 40 time (4.41 vs. 4.62). He has runs of 60, 50, and 68 yards in his career. Meanwhile Ingram has never had a play of more than 35 yards. Yet you'll bend over backwards to explain why Ingram is good while sticking your head in the sand about Mendenhall. The irony here is that Ingram's 4.62 40 time is the same exact time run by Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson coming out of college. If anyone should be compared to those two, it's Ingram. Mendenhall is in a different class with his 4.41 speed. I've mentioned Benson as a parallel because of the way he went from being written off to emerging as a solid starter elsewhere, but that's a conservative comparison for Mendenhall. Mendenhall is a more gifted athlete and is much more accomplished at his age than Benson was. I don't think he's as good as Lynch, but probably somewhere in the middle of Benson----Lynch.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I don't want to start an Ingram vs. Mendenhall tangent, but your stance on the two players makes you look like a hypocrite. Mendenhall has a higher career YPC playing on a less explosive offense. He was a higher draft pick. He has better combine numbers across the board. Better broad jump, better shuttle, better vertical leap, better bench press, heavier, better 10 yard time, and much better 40 time (4.41 vs. 4.62). He has runs of 60, 50, and 68 yards in his career. Meanwhile Ingram has never had a play of more than 35 yards. Yet you'll bend over backwards to explain why Ingram is good while sticking your head in the sand about Mendenhall.
I would only be a hypocrite if I cited Mendy's combine numbers to discredit him - I didn't. And if you think Mendhenhall has 4.41 NFL speed - I think you're very mistaken. He didn't look Devin Hester fast to me. That is what Devin Hester ran too, you know?
Tier One

1. RB Mark Ingram, Alabama

There really isn't much to say about Ingram that hasn't already been said elsewhere. The 2009 Heisman winner has a good combination of power, burst, and vision that should see him drafted somewhere in the top 30 picks come April. People will cite his lack of explosive speed as a negative, but he broke plenty of big plays for the Tide and offers plenty of speed to play RB in the NFL. While he might not be the flashiest player around, I don't see any real warts to his game. These 220+ pound do-everything backs typically work well in the NFL. I expect Ingram to be immediately effective for whichever NFL team drafts him and I think he'll be the top pick from this draft class for redraft and dynasty purposes for 2011 and 2012. His production should fall somewhere in the range between the Bengals version of Cedric Benson and Frank Gore. At worst a quality RB2. At best a solid RB1.
 
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EBF

Footballguy
Yea, that was two years ago. I took him in one league and after he looked like crap as a rookie, I traded him away. That does nothing to refute any of the points I made.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Yea, that was two years ago. I took him in one league and after he looked like crap as a rookie, I traded him away. That does nothing to refute any of the points I made.
You're arguing that Mendenhall should get a pass for looking average, but Ingram shouldn't. You ALL THE TIME talk about how combine numbers don't tell the whole story, when a guy like Wright runs slow, but point to it and use them to call me a hypocrite. Hypocritical, if you ask me. Again:Mendenhall: 4.41Hester: 4.41Who wins a foot race?
 

EBF

Footballguy
Yea, that was two years ago. I took him in one league and after he looked like crap as a rookie, I traded him away. That does nothing to refute any of the points I made.
You're arguing that Mendenhall should get a pass for looking average, but Ingram shouldn't.
Different situations. Mendy barely played as a rookie. And he barely played this year. In his three seasons as a starter, he averaged 4.6, 3.9, and 4.1 YPC. Overall, that's not bad. If a player can consistently do that on 250+ carries, he can be a starter in the league for a long time. With Ingram, you're talking about a part time back on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Part of the reason why I don't like him is subjective. He just doesn't look good out there. The other part is based on numbers. Every RB on the Saints outplays him. Ivory. Thomas. Sproles. They all have much better YPC numbers with the same supporting cast. Meanwhile, every Steelers RB struggled last year. Dwyer and Redman were essentially no better than Mendenhall. So while we can probably agree that Sproles and Thomas are better RBs than what Mendenhall is competing with, the point is that one guy is struggling in a situation where everyone is struggling and the other guy (Ingram) is struggling in a situation where everyone else is thriving. The latter is a lot more damning, IMO. And there's a big difference between maintaining a certain YPC on 50-125 carries, and maintaining it over 300+ carries. Look at guys like Daryl Richardson and Bernard Pierce, who I have in a lot of leagues. I think they're promising players, but at the same time I recognize that their YPC numbers would almost certainly drop if they were running the ball 20 times per game instead of just making cameos. Shonn Greene's 3.9 YPC as the undisputed lead back on a crappy team impresses me more than Ingram's 3.9 YPC as a committee back on one of the top offenses in the NFL. By the same token, Mendenhall's 4.1 YPC as a bell cow back on a team with a pretty poor OL is not really that damning, IMO. It's about on par with what Lynch was doing in Buffalo.
You ALL THE TIME talk about how combine numbers don't tell the whole story, when a guy like Wright runs slow, but point to it and use them to call me a hypocrite. Hypocritical, if you ask me. Again:Mendenhall: 4.41Hester: 4.41Who wins a foot race?
Combine numbers don't tell the whole story, but when they're corroborated by what happens on the field, you have to start to believe them. Bernard Berrian didn't run fast 40 times, but he could run by people on the football field. When the combine numbers don't jive with what the player is able to accomplish on the field, I think you can basically ignore them. But when the combine numbers and the on-field performance tell the same story, there's little reason not to believe it. The damning thing with Ingram isn't just that he had bad workout numbers. If he were performing like Frank Gore or LeSean McCoy (two other workout duds), it wouldn't be an issue. But that hasn't been the case. Unfortunately, Ingram in the NFL has looked just as mediocre as his workout numbers would suggest he is. He isn't explosive. He has a low YPC. He doesn't break big plays. If you read my breakdown of him above, you'll note that I cited Cedric Benson as his downside. And it seems like things have broken that way for Ingram. In the NFL, he looks more like Benson than Gore. Mendenhall is fast on the track. He's also fast on the field. He ranked in the top 10 in 20+ yard rushing plays in 2009 and 2010. He wasn't as effective in 2011, but still managed runs of 52 and 68 yards that year. His speed, along with his frame, is actually his single elite athletic gift. There are quite a few 225 pound RBs in the NFL. There are very few who can run 4.41 in the 40. In fact, I can't think of any RBs in the whole league who were heavier and faster. Anyone who ran a faster 40 time weighed less. Anyone who weighed more ran a slower 40 time. It's safe to say that his size/speed ratio is special.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
The damning thing with Ingram isn't just that he had bad workout numbers. If he were performing like Frank Gore or LeSean McCoy (two other workout duds), it wouldn't be an issue. But that hasn't been the case. Unfortunately, Ingram in the NFL has looked just as mediocre as his workout numbers would suggest he is. He isn't explosive. He has a low YPC. He doesn't break big plays. If you read my breakdown of him above, you'll note that I cited Cedric Benson as his downside. And it seems like things have broken that way for Ingram. In the NFL, he looks more like Benson than Gore.
This isn't an Ingram thread, but I don't like being called a hypocrite, so I'll share my view: 2011: Injurned knee, turf toe2012, 1st half: Used as goal line, short yardage back.2012, 2nd half: 4.3 YPC I still see a potential top 15 RB in Ingram. I still see a guy capable of being a 3 down back in most systems. It's a shame for him that he ended up where he did, as far as production goes.
It's safe to say that his size/speed ratio is special.
Not even saying this to be an ###: I don't see it on the field. At all. I woudln't call him slow, but he doesn't have special size/speed ratio on the field, from what I see. I can't expect you to take my word for it, I am sure you have watched him plenty and have your own opinion. But that 4.41 didn't translate, in my opinion.
 

EBF

Footballguy
Not even saying this to be an ###: I don't see it on the field. At all. I woudln't call him slow, but he doesn't have special size/speed ratio on the field, from what I see. I can't expect you to take my word for it, I am sure you have watched him plenty and have your own opinion. But that 4.41 didn't translate, in my opinion.
He is fast. That's one aspect of his game that can't really be denied. He had a bad year from a big play standpoint in 2011, but still produced a pair of 50+ yard runs.

In 2010 he had 11 runs of 20+ yards. Good for fifth in the NFL.

In 2009 he had 9 runs of 20+ yards. Tied for eighth in the NFL.

Over that two year span, he had 566 carries and 20 runs of 20+ yards. In that same time frame Adrian Peterson had 597 carries and 21 runs of 20+ yards. Maurice Jones-Drew had 611 carries and 16 runs of 20+ yards. Those are two of the unquestioned elite backs in the game and he was right there with them stride for stride. Their 40 times at the combine were:

MJD - 4.39

Peterson - 4.40

Mendenhall - 4.41

He isn't as consistently effective as these guys, but if you give him a lane he's certainly capable of running to daylight. Here's a good example against the Saints at 2:46:

http://youtu.be/QY2vPjooYzo?t=2m45s

If there's a perception that he's some kind of unathletic plodder, I think it's probably only because we haven't seen him at his best in a while. He's not the smoothest RB or the most elusive in the open field, but he certainly has a rare combination of bulk and pure straight line speed.

 

Steed

Footballguy
Shouldn't they be? It's not like it's a unique phenomenon. Thomas Jones. Larry Johnson. Cedric Benson. Rashard Mendenhall. Knowshon Moreno. You could even say CJ Spiller after his rookie year (283 rushing yards at 3.8 YPC).
Larry Johnson didn't do anything after leaving KC and did fine as soon as he got his shot. Spiller isn't really applicable. We're not talking about an elite talent who hasn't had a shot yet. Moreno had two games above 4 YPC: KC,BAL. We are taking major leaps by assuming he "bounced back". He benefited from the offense he played in, only as a result of injury. He was a volume guy on a team that involves the RB heavily in the passing game. So really, It's Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Larry Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch, that come to mind. Lynch being the only guy to re-establish dynasty RB1 value. So if we are paying RB2 prices today, we're paying best case scenario prices, which is never wise. For the price, give me Felix Jones as a bounce back candidate. At least he's free.
This sort of thing happens more than you think. McGahee has been resurrected twice. Travis Henry was left for dead too. Priest Holmes in a way too, though no one expected anything from him to begin with.
 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
speculating his value is rather meaningless without knowing where he lands. The Jets letting Green walk and signing Mendy is completely different from the Chargers bringing him in to compete with Mathews. There are a few teams that he could come in and be an immediate upgrade, but few of them, maybe just the Falcons and Bengals, have "Upgrade at RB" on the top of their to do list. I don't see a second Lynch situation.

 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
This sort of thing happens more than you think. McGahee has been resurrected twice. Travis Henry was left for dead too. Priest Holmes in a way too, though no one expected anything from him to begin with.
4 game parlays hit from time to time but Vegas still loves it when we place them. Henry had one bounce back season and his owners had to wait 3 years for it. McGahee was a nice buy once he was signed by the Broncos, but never had more than dynasty RB2 value, if he had that. Fred Jackson paid off for those lucky enough to have happened to have him on their roster at the time. I understand that value is fluid and there are plenty of RB who can turn in RB2 season if they get enough touches to do it. But treating a guy whose team is letting him walk despite not having anything behind him, as though even RB2 numbers are certain - I don't think that's wise.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
With Ingram...
We've done this before. I have explained many times - as has Sean Peyton, F&L, and Greg Cosell - why his YPC is not an accurate measure of his talents. He's been hurt and used as a short yardage back. When he was healthy and getting carries, his YPC was 4.3 - higher than Mendy's career average. You say he doesn't look good - that is fine. That's great. That's your opinion and I respect that. But let it go. I get sick of others throwing your Forte/DMC/Stewart/Baldwin stances in your face - yet you're happy to do the same when you feel it helps your argument. I think Ingram is a talent, as did you 250 or so carries ago. He's in a situation that doesn't suit his talent and he's dealt with knee/turf toe/ankle issues. If that is not enough for you - then nothing will be and lets not talk about it.
 

MAC_32

Footballguy
If there were no salary cap someone would throw a pile of money at him. With a cap? No one will. The difference between him and a day 2 RB is 4 years of wear and tear and a big contract, the right move here is to pick a rookie. Talent disparity just isn't there. Spend money on difference maker's and premium positions.Been comparing him to Benson for a while, if he is going to get a starting job it will come sometime after the draft. A team wanting to address RB does not and their young guys aren't developing. This would mean Mendenhall would have to hold out, there be a team that develops a need, and that team lking Mendenhall. Possible, sure, but I'd bet against it.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
That descriptions sounds exactly like Marshawn Lynch heading into 2010 to me:Still in his primeCareer y/c Mendenhall 4.11, Lynch with Bills 4.001st-rounder miscast as an up-the-gut bruiser behind a poor offensive lineSaid and done some stupid stuffMarket values him at RB25-30 (picked up Lynch as RB26 in a 2010 startup)
But Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. I wouldn't look to Lynch as a likely outcome. I wouldn't pay any attention to Lynch, actually, when projecting Mendy's likely outcomes.
This sort of thing happens more than you think. McGahee has been resurrected twice. Travis Henry was left for dead too. Priest Holmes in a way too, though no one expected anything from him to begin with.
4 game parlays hit from time to time but Vegas still loves it when we place them.
Great replies by Coop in this thread. I particularly love the last one here. This is a common theme in the SP. People point out a few exceptions like they are a rule. As said in his earlier reply, Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. wdcrob found some similarities and thinks we're dealing with a parallel. To me, a huge difference between Lynch and Mendenhall is that Lynch was putting up 4 ypc on a terrible team while Mendenhall was putting up 4 ypc on a very good team. Personally, I'm no oracle, but I've watch both situations closely and I targeted Lynch in 2010 (very late, of course) while I'm going to take a pass on Mendenhall this year. And I was higher on Mendenhall after his 2nd year than I was on Lynch after his solid rookie year.Situation matters a lot more than silly parallels are anecdotal stories. I realize Mendenhall's o-line hasn't been stellar the last two years, but his surrounding weapons have been very good - good enough to keep the defenses honest, which we can't say for Lynch in Buffalo or Seattle. And the SP is blinded by fantasy numbers. If Mendenhall had not gotten a ton of goal line duty in his 3 years of heavy workload, 75% of his supporters wouldn't be here. He did nothing more than compile statistics due to a large number of carries. I honestly believe he'd have been putting up 3 ypc in Buffalo and Lynch would've been putting up 5 ypc in Pit if they switched places.Bottom line is that Mendenhall supporters really only have 1 season out of 5 to hang their hat on. That describes a few comeback kids, but it also describes a lot of guys that we can't remember because they quietly faded off into the sunset. IF Mendenhall gets his head on straight and accepts that he's going to have to prove himself this year then he could produce like a RB2 in 2013 or 2014, but it's a four team parlay if you ask me.I can't pretend to know where his ADP will be next year, but if it similar to someone like Ingram, I'd rather roll the dice on Ingram. I like his chances of being in the league in 3 years a lot better than Mendenhall's, and he hasn't even had a 200 carry season yet.
 

Godsbrother

Footballguy
speculating his value is rather meaningless without knowing where he lands. The Jets letting Green walk and signing Mendy is completely different from the Chargers bringing him in to compete with Mathews. There are a few teams that he could come in and be an immediate upgrade, but few of them, maybe just the Falcons and Bengals, have "Upgrade at RB" on the top of their to do list. I don't see a second Lynch situation.
:goodposting: Ironically one of the best places he could land is with the team he will be leaving...
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
Situation matters a lot more than silly parallels are anecdotal stories.
I think people are only trying to point out that RBs that were at one time worthy of being first round picks in the NFL will likely get a second chance somewhere even if they washed out with the team that drafted them.That's all (imo) that these Lynch, Benson, Thomas Jones parallels are attempting to show. Anyone thinking that no NFL team is going to give Medndenhall a chance at a starting spot is being shortsighted. Whether you think he'll do anything with that chance depends on how good you think Mendenhall is, and how good his future situation will be.
 

Steed

Footballguy
This sort of thing happens more than you think. McGahee has been resurrected twice. Travis Henry was left for dead too. Priest Holmes in a way too, though no one expected anything from him to begin with.
4 game parlays hit from time to time but Vegas still loves it when we place them.
Great replies by Coop in this thread. I particularly love the last one here. This is a common theme in the SP. People point out a few exceptions like they are a rule. As said in his earlier reply, Lynch/Jones stories are pretty rare. wdcrob found some similarities and thinks we're dealing with a parallel. To me, a huge difference between Lynch and Mendenhall is that Lynch was putting up 4 ypc on a terrible team while Mendenhall was putting up 4 ypc on a very good team. Personally, I'm no oracle, but I've watch both situations closely and I targeted Lynch in 2010 (very late, of course) while I'm going to take a pass on Mendenhall this year. And I was higher on Mendenhall after his 2nd year than I was on Lynch after his solid rookie year.Situation matters a lot more than silly parallels are anecdotal stories. I realize Mendenhall's o-line hasn't been stellar the last two years, but his surrounding weapons have been very good - good enough to keep the defenses honest, which we can't say for Lynch in Buffalo or Seattle. And the SP is blinded by fantasy numbers. If Mendenhall had not gotten a ton of goal line duty in his 3 years of heavy workload, 75% of his supporters wouldn't be here. He did nothing more than compile statistics due to a large number of carries. I honestly believe he'd have been putting up 3 ypc in Buffalo and Lynch would've been putting up 5 ypc in Pit if they switched places.Bottom line is that Mendenhall supporters really only have 1 season out of 5 to hang their hat on. That describes a few comeback kids, but it also describes a lot of guys that we can't remember because they quietly faded off into the sunset. IF Mendenhall gets his head on straight and accepts that he's going to have to prove himself this year then he could produce like a RB2 in 2013 or 2014, but it's a four team parlay if you ask me.I can't pretend to know where his ADP will be next year, but if it similar to someone like Ingram, I'd rather roll the dice on Ingram. I like his chances of being in the league in 3 years a lot better than Mendenhall's, and he hasn't even had a 200 carry season yet.
Situation deosn't matter nearly as much as you think. In just about every case, Thomas Jones, Ced Benson, McGahee, Moreno, Lynch, Henry they all went to a crap situation and had to bide their time as they were only signed for depth. Lynch was really the only exception to that and most still felt he was on a bad team. He had 2 good games for the Seahawks and that thunderous run in the playoffs the year they traded for him but still no one paid him any mind the next year in drafts because of the poor state of the offense. No one is looking for an RB1 here, just to pick up on some undervalued assets. EBF is onto something with this, theyre all former 1st rounders that washed out with their first team, but he's going about it all wrong paying rb2 prices.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
If they both ran that race at 4.41 they'd tie - but I suck at math.
The combine 40 time is self start - so we have no idea how these guys would react to a gun. That's one of a few flaws to that logic. My point was that 40 times are a measuremnt of a track event, and don't always translate to football speed. In other words, Devin Hester is faster than his 40 time and I don't think Mendy is as fast as his.
 

eefflrat

Footballguy
This sort of thing happens more than you think. McGahee has been resurrected twice. Travis Henry was left for dead too. Priest Holmes in a way too, though no one expected anything from him to begin with.
4 game parlays hit from time to time but Vegas still loves it when we place them. Henry had one bounce back season and his owners had to wait 3 years for it. McGahee was a nice buy once he was signed by the Broncos, but never had more than dynasty RB2 value, if he had that. Fred Jackson paid off for those lucky enough to have happened to have him on their roster at the time. I understand that value is fluid and there are plenty of RB who can turn in RB2 season if they get enough touches to do it. But treating a guy whose team is letting him walk despite not having anything behind him, as though even RB2 numbers are certain - I don't think that's wise.
The guys is a FA, and that's not even a done deal yet. There's alwaysa possibility that he resigns, but saying a guy is not worth anything because his current team doesn't want him means very little. Plenty of teams let their fa's test free agency. Sometimes they lose them. The steelers have Dwyer and Redman still, and could easily draft a rb. Maybe they won't be resigning him because they are strapped for cash and assume his market value will be too high for them, maybe?
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
The guys is a FA, and that's not even a done deal yet. There's alwaysa possibility that he resigns, but saying a guy is not worth anything because his current team doesn't want him means very little. Plenty of teams let their fa's test free agency. Sometimes they lose them. The steelers have Dwyer and Redman still, and could easily draft a rb. Maybe they won't be resigning him because they are strapped for cash and assume his market value will be too high for them, maybe?
It's not the only reason, nor the only reasoning I provided for my opinion on Mendenhall. You're right - it's not a done deal yet. I don't think a team is going to invest top dollar to bring this guy in; at the very least, I don't think it is a wise investment. Maybe I'm wrong and a team (or more than one, even) will want to bring him in. Maybe it will pay off. But his value will depend largely on his market and situation. I advise letting it play out before treating him as though RG2 numbers are a given or even likely.
 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.

 

EBF

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.
Yea, he doesn't really have the leverage to ask for a huge deal after getting hurt in 2011, not playing much in 2012, and clashing with the coaching staff. There will be teams out there who want him. And sooner or later, his asking price will drop to the point where someone is willing to meet it.Some of the obvious potential destinations:MiamiNew York JetsSteelersColtsBroncosRaidersLionsPackersFalconsCardinalsRamsMost of those teams have some degree of need for a RB, and not all of them will end up drafting one high. When the game of musical chairs ends, it's likely that Mendenhall ends up on one of these teams, IMO. And I think he'd have a good chance to emerge right away in any of these spots.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.
I am fine using the term starter money - I think that would be pretty huge for him. I still don't think that is a given.
 

Concept Coop

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.
I am fine using the term starter money - I think that would be pretty huge for him. I still don't think that is a given.
I think he's at least BJGE money, he's twice the player IMO
I could see that, but that's is less than Michael Bush got and isn't much of an investment, really.
 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.
I am fine using the term starter money - I think that would be pretty huge for him. I still don't think that is a given.
I think he's at least BJGE money, he's twice the player IMO
The Lawfirm signing still doesn't make sense to me. I think it may have been a product of three teams taking RBs in the first round and BGJE and M.Bush being the only real big name FA's out there.This year Mendy is competing with Bradshaw and Reggie Bush for the few teams are looking for a FA RB starter. I think I would prefer both of those guys, and that is before we factor in that his attitude problems just got him cut from a team where he was the obvious #1 talentwise.
 

eefflrat

Footballguy
I don't think anyone's arguing he's going to get a huge payday by NFL standards. The argument is whether he gets starter money or not.
I am fine using the term starter money - I think that would be pretty huge for him. I still don't think that is a given.
I think he's at least BJGE money, he's twice the player IMO
and that is before we factor in that his attitude problems just got him cut from a team where he was the obvious #1 talentwise.
I think there are very few teams that actually care about that. In reality what actual issues have we had with mendenhall: he said something stupid about Osama Bin Laden in 2011, and he didn't attend a game while he was going to be inactive? Are there more issues, because I have seen and heard of many other severely worse infractions that haven't stopped teams from pursuing or keeping guys like PacMan Jones, Cedric Benson, Donte Stallworth, jerome Simpson, Brandon Marshall, Kenny Britt, Fairley and the countless others in very recent history.
 

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