gianmarco
Footballguy
In a "down" year for RBs, Chris Johnson finished at RB12 last year with 220 pts in 1 ppr.I'm not sure Pittsburgh would really qualify as a great situation for a RB in recent years. Probably more middle of the road. I'm not a Steelers fan, but I've been under the impression that their line has gradually become a liability. The fact that Dwyer and Redman didn't set the world on fire this past season shows that this wasn't necessarily a powerhouse team that could plug anyone in there and get great results.
I don't think Arizona is poised to be a running juggernaut either, but I think they can approach what Pittsburgh has done the last couple years. People are quick to point out how bad their RB production has been in recent seasons without pointing out how bad their RBs have been. Beanie Wells was overrated and could never stay healthy regardless. Tim Hightower was a journeyman. Emmitt Smith was a shadow by the time he signed there. Edgerrin James is the one guy who was a great talent and still (maybe) in his prime. He had high yardage in Arizona, but low YPC numbers. It's tough to say how much of his struggles were system and how much were related to his own decline in ability. He did have 2000+ carries by the time he signed with them, and not every RB ages like Steven Jackson.
I think Mendenhall is the best back Arizona has had since James. The fact that Stephens-Howling, Wells, and Hightower struggled on this team doesn't doom him to failure. Washington and Tampa were bad rushing teams in 2011. How about last year? Sometimes adding a few new players into the mix is all it takes to get liftoff. I don't rate Mendenhall on par with somebody like Martin, but the idea that a historically bad rushing team is locked into that level of performance is narrow-minded. Things change very fast in the NFL. The Cardinals have already taken a big step forward by acquiring Palmer and Mendenhall. That alone should guarantee that their passing and rushing numbers improve dramatically from last season's woeful performance. They might not be a great team, but they have a reasonable chance to be middle of the pack. Hence why I think Mendenhall could end up anywhere from slightly above average (RB12) to slightly below average (RB20)..
When people are valuing him around RB30-RB40, I think it's a great gamble. There aren't many backs in that range who have a chance to crack the top 20 this year without catching some very lucky breaks.
He had 276 carries for 1243 yards (4.5 ypc) with 6 rushing TDs. He also added 36 receptions for 232 yards (6.4 ypc).
Mendenhall, during his best year, needed 324 carries to hit 1274 yards in 2010 on Pittsburgh. He's never had over 25 catches in his career. He scored 13 rushing TDs that year and still, with that heavy workload of 324 carries, he finished RB11.
Even if you don't think Arizona's situation is that bad and can turn around quickly, surely you don't think they're going to all of a sudden vault into the top half of the league, do you? So, on an overall worse team (and new team), you think he's going to essentially top his career numbers (because he certainly isn't getting 13 rushing TDs) and finish at RB12? Why stop there? Why not just put him at RB1 upside?
As for Pitt's O-line, it's been their pass protection that has been terrible. They were the 3rd best run-blocking O-line in 2011 (see here) when Mendenhall couldn't hit 1000 yards on 228 carries (4.1 ypc). Pitt took a step back last year there for sure, but you know who was dead last in the NFL last year? You got it--Arizona. In the last 3 years, Arizona has finished 32nd, 24th, and 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards.
I'm curious what kind of possible projections given the above you can give to Mendenhall that he'll somehow finish RB12 next year. Assuming he's going to need 220 pts to get there, how do you figure that's possible? I mean, sure, anything is possible, but really? He's going to log 300 carries (unlikely) at 4.5 ypc (very unlikely) and score 10 TDs (unlikely) and still add another 30 pts receiving (the most likely of the above)? Even with that, he'll be at 225 pts which MIGHT put him at RB12.
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