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Mendenhall (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter eefflrat
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
It's about the best that Mendy owners could've hoped for. Improved OL, passed on all of the top RBs, and waited until the 5th round to finally snag some competition. I like Taylor more than most, but he shouldn't pose much of a threat to Mendy in year one. Now it's all about the Mendy/Williams battle.
Agree completely.
Stepfan is a nice insurance policy for two RB's with some injury issues to overcome. But if Stepfan Taylor was a starting RB in the NFL he's have the worst measurables of any starting NFL RB. He lacks one positive workout trait. Forget the lack of long speed. I challenge anyone to find a productive NFL runner who was as across the board as bad in his meaurables as Stepfan. Even most of the slower guys tend to be strong in one area, like vertical for instance.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
He's Jason Snelling. I think he only looks good on tape because of Stanford's O-Line. He's got 0 upside.
EBF
Footballguy
You're right about Taylor. The lack of historical parallels doesn't bode well for him.
I'd say he's a bit like Cedric Benson. Greater than the sum of his parts on paper.
Being a 5th round pick with those numbers, he's more likely to be a backup in the NFL than a starter.
The pick makes sense for Arizona though. Mendy is on a one year deal and Williams has been totally brittle. They needed a third option who can step in and play okay.
EBF
Footballguy
Thinking more about this, I'd say the draft was a slight arrow down for Mendenhall overall. At least with regards to his future in Arizona. I thought Ellington and Taylor were among the better talents available at RB on day 3. I still expect Mendenhall to get the most carries here, but Taylor is a real threat and potentially good enough to convince Arizona to let Mendenhall walk a year from now. With four cooks in the kitchen, it's a more messy situation and this might be more like the "Thomas Jones in Tampa" year for Mendy than the "Benson in Cincinnati." I still think his talent/youth combo makes him a good buy at his current cost, but his redraft outlook took a small hit. He'll need to answer the bell.
This should be a really interesting battle to monitor throughout the preseason.
This should be a really interesting battle to monitor throughout the preseason.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I don't think Ellington or Taylor mean anything in comparison to a healthy Williams or Mendenhall. Ellington is too small and too slow. Taylor's best attribute was taking a lot of carries.
They were clearly looking for assurance. I don't think they picked the right guys.
They were clearly looking for assurance. I don't think they picked the right guys.
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Half in the bag
Footballguy
I have to admit I am intrigued by him this year knowing his past ties to Arians. Even if Ari has been a rb wasteland recently.
DoubleG
Footballguy
butcher boy
Footballguy
Whenever I see the name Mendenhall, I say it like Al Michaels. Mendenhoawwwwalllll.
I never would have thought Mendenhall will be a better asset in PPR than in standard.....but here we are, and probably by quite a margin.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd place the likelihood of Palmer throwing to RBs that much in Arz at 0. Arians offense is much different than the the one in Oak and focuses far more on downfield passing, Arz has Fitz and overall a better group of WRs, Oak had Dmac and Reece who were excellent receiving RBs and Mendy just isn't that good in the passing game (career high of 25 receptions in a season and only 77 career receptions in 5 seasons). Even if Mendy takes the RB1 position I see his impact in the passing game as minimal.Arians RB receptions by season, I hope my math is correct. Regardless, it's close. What isn't close is anything in the range of Oak last year.2012, 352011, 432010, 512009, 522008, 582007, 46The best season wasn't half of Oak last year. I don't expect this Tiger to change his strips.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Whoever is in on passing downs in AZ is probably going to be doing for more blocking than catching considering Arians' offense and that sieve they call an offensive line.Have you watched Carson Palmer lately? His passing appetite is through the roof.....and so is his dump off rate on broken plays. The 120 RB receptions are hardly a surprise. FWIW, add to that 88 TE ones. Hard to believe Arians or the ARI O-line will change that.
Don't want to get into a discussion where I defend Mendenhall. I do have to point out the numbers you are quoting are probably not representative here. Mewelde Moore was the locked-in third-down specialist ahead of Mendenhall and there was also Redman, another quite decent blocker. The stats you are quoting are racked up as a pure runner.
Who do you like as the 3rd-down guy in Arizona then?
Don't want to get into a discussion where I defend Mendenhall. I do have to point out the numbers you are quoting are probably not representative here. Mewelde Moore was the locked-in third-down specialist ahead of Mendenhall and there was also Redman, another quite decent blocker. The stats you are quoting are racked up as a pure runner.
Who do you like as the 3rd-down guy in Arizona then?
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Those aren't Mendenhall's numbers, those are team totals under Bruce Arians. Andy Reid he's not.
jurb26
Footballguy
The stats I posted are valid and sound. See my edit to the post which shows Arians historic trend in passing to RBs as an OC. It's simply not what he does.I'd expect Williams to be used most in the passing game as a RB bit even his role will be small. Arians likes throwing the ball down field. This is a horrible situation for RB production in the passing game IMO.
The Arians argument is absolutely valid. Don't think anyone is arguing 120 RB receptions are forthcoming.
However, neither of you is addressing the Palmer part of the discussion. Arians had Roethlisberger and Luck, both extremelly sack-happy QBs. Roeth is famous for it and I think Luck was top-5 last year. When under durress or facing a broken play, both Roethlisberger and Luck are happy to wait and throw deep or take the hit.
When under durress, Palmer does the opposite - dump off short. His sack rate last season was towards the league bottom, despite playing behind the OAK O-line. The ARI line is unlikely an improvement. Maybe Arians fixes that, but I just don't see how it happens for an aging QB.
So take a stab - how many receptions to RBs in ARI this season? I will put down 70.
Jurb - I don't get it. Why would they put Ryan Williams of all RBs on passing downs? That's probably the weakest side of his game and it's not like they have a backup QB, you know.....
However, neither of you is addressing the Palmer part of the discussion. Arians had Roethlisberger and Luck, both extremelly sack-happy QBs. Roeth is famous for it and I think Luck was top-5 last year. When under durress or facing a broken play, both Roethlisberger and Luck are happy to wait and throw deep or take the hit.
When under durress, Palmer does the opposite - dump off short. His sack rate last season was towards the league bottom, despite playing behind the OAK O-line. The ARI line is unlikely an improvement. Maybe Arians fixes that, but I just don't see how it happens for an aging QB.
So take a stab - how many receptions to RBs in ARI this season? I will put down 70.
Jurb - I don't get it. Why would they put Ryan Williams of all RBs on passing downs? That's probably the weakest side of his game and it's not like they have a backup QB, you know.....
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I continue to think Mendenhall is undervalued here. Staff have got him with 12-14 touches per game, and I think 15 is his floor, with upside from there if AZ's o-line and Palmer manage to stay healthy. There's just no one on that roster capable of taking touches from him IMO.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
If he could get rid of that terrible spin move he REALLY might be something this year.
jurb26
Footballguy
If we're down to who will catch the passes of the RBs, we are splitting hairs IMO. I don't see it matter much who actually catches more. If Mendy is the primary guy in Arians offense he will be the only viable player from a fantasy stand point. That said, he will only be viable based on rushing from what I can tell. Saying Williams will catch more passes is of little significance. I'm seeing about 40 total receptions for RBs in that offense. Williams could get 25 and lead the group in that scenario. As for Palmer being a dump off king, I disagree. I'm no fan of Palmer at this stage of his career but I have to give him credit for being fearless in the pocket and wanting to get the ball downfield if the play calls for it. I think you are mistaken philosophy for quick trigger dump offs here. Palmer is no Sam Bradford. Oak intended to use their RBs a lot in the passing game because they had great weapons in that facet and also had several troubles at WR due to multiple reasons; less talent than most teams and injuries. Oak was lining Dmac up out wide and in the slot on many passing situations over the past 2 years. You will not see this for Mendy. Lastly, the online issues are what I think is going to be most detrimental to RB receptions. If the Arz online struggles, which we all seem to agree is probable, then I think the RBs will be asked to stay in and protect before Arians alters his downfield strategy. It's strange because it seems like there are a ton of threads about the Arz offense and all this bullish projection. Many see Palmer having a near career year as well as Fitz because of them connecting. Many see Floyd taking a huge step forward. Others see Roberts taking a step forward. There isn't enough room on this offense for all of these things to happen. Something's got to give. That or Arz is somehow going to morph into the second coming of the greatest show on turf in one offseason with mild additions. I think this offense is going to underperform many expectations.
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Very good points. Disagree with the fearless in the pocket part (and think the stats are behind me on this one), but it is probably a subjective difference.
Still can't see Ryan Williams as a pass protector. I find it much more likely to see him and Mendenhall split the early downs and keep Mendenhall in on third. I have no doubt he will be asked to block; that doesn't preclude him from catching the emergency dumps. There were a ton of those in OAK, esp to Reece, although I agree that using McFadden and Reece was also a deliberate strategy. Combined, the two factors explain the abnormal number of RB receptions.
If you are correct that there will be an abnormally low number of receptions - say, 40 - then sure, it's irrelevant who gets them.
If you are not and there are, say, 70-80 receptions, I think Mendenhall gets 45-50 of them. Add maybe 200 carries and you can see why people think he is undervalued around RB35 in PPR.
Still can't see Ryan Williams as a pass protector. I find it much more likely to see him and Mendenhall split the early downs and keep Mendenhall in on third. I have no doubt he will be asked to block; that doesn't preclude him from catching the emergency dumps. There were a ton of those in OAK, esp to Reece, although I agree that using McFadden and Reece was also a deliberate strategy. Combined, the two factors explain the abnormal number of RB receptions.
If you are correct that there will be an abnormally low number of receptions - say, 40 - then sure, it's irrelevant who gets them.
If you are not and there are, say, 70-80 receptions, I think Mendenhall gets 45-50 of them. Add maybe 200 carries and you can see why people think he is undervalued around RB35 in PPR.
jurb26
Footballguy
This is kind of why I think we're splitting hairs here. While I find it almost impossible to believe RBs will catch that many passes in an Arians offense, Mendy included. I think the primary RB is going to get more than 200 carries, say 230 or so. So, the touches will about even out in your projections and mine but be distributed very differently. That of course assumes health. The only times an Arians team had its leading rusher under 230 carries were injury shortened seasons, Mendy 228 in 15 games, Parker 210 in 11 games and Ballard even had 211 last year in 11 games.
Good discussion. Truly appreciate your point of view and detailed argumentation behind it.
Seems like we agree he is good value for now. Until ADP falls to the low-end RB2 range, I am buying comfortably.
If you watch his 2012 games mendenhall looks like nothing more than a committee back. And despite his low ypc and a shakey knee ryan Williams was still making the first man miss on a lot of his carries. With the oline improvements and mendenhalls mediocrity I expect Williams to take over at some point. His injury history has made him dirt cheap.
Taking Williams as a lotto pick is a much wiser option than taking mendenhall anywhere in the top 7 rounds.
Taking Williams as a lotto pick is a much wiser option than taking mendenhall anywhere in the top 7 rounds.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
If you like to win in fantasy football, ignore all runners from AZ - STL - NE.
DoubleG
Footballguy
The problem with that line of thinking is that it's true...until it isn't. Now, NE is usually a mess of RBBBC (running back by BIG committee) - but the other two could very easily shift to a lead guy situation. In fact, Joe's email just today stated that "Arians has commented earlier this offseason that he's not going to use a RBBC." That, coupled with the fact that Mendy is now "clearly" the #1 makes him a good RB2 option this season.
The Rams could also end up with a lead back - we just don't know who it is yet. But of your 3 examples, the Arizona one (and the one pertaining to this thread) is likely to have more upside than downside, imho. Mendenhall's age and talent, along with him being the "clear #1" - make him a fairly stable floor RB2, with decent upside...especially if Williams continues to breakdown.
EBF
Footballguy
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squistion
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Understandable, since this was only your 40th post in this thread.
squistion
Footballguy
Please do the same thing in the Jonathan Stewart thread, otherwise you might forget that you have posted in that one too.Understandable, since this was only your 40th post in this thread.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
What I remember about Mendenhall's 2012 is that his knee acted up in his second game back after looking quite good in his first game back. For the rest of the season, he just struggled to get his knee back and his game back to pre-injury form. I don't think it's a bad bet to think that another off-season of rehabbing and rounding into form coupled with reuniting with a HC who had faith in him as his OC.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
It is true for 2013.
DoubleG
Footballguy
I'd probably be willing to agree on 2 of the 3 situations you stated - except for the one that pertains to this thread.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
With Arians saying today that Mendenhall is his starter, a three down back and a guy that never needs to come off the field I'm even more convinced the current projections on him are too low. He's going to get the lion's share of touches, though the Cards RBs don't project to have all that many as a team.
If we say 24/game (384 on the season) I expect Mendenhall to get 16-18 of those, or about 272 on the season. His per touch numbers won't be very good since Arians has specifically said RBs aren't on the field to catch the ball and the line isn't very good, but that's enough volume to put him at ~12.2 ppg give or take. Good for RB25, RB22, RB24 in the last three years.
With an average staff ranking of 29 and an ADP of 28 he does offer some value.
If we say 24/game (384 on the season) I expect Mendenhall to get 16-18 of those, or about 272 on the season. His per touch numbers won't be very good since Arians has specifically said RBs aren't on the field to catch the ball and the line isn't very good, but that's enough volume to put him at ~12.2 ppg give or take. Good for RB25, RB22, RB24 in the last three years.
With an average staff ranking of 29 and an ADP of 28 he does offer some value.
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DoubleG
Footballguy
Agreed. IMHO, based on what Arians has said virtually since obtaining Mendenhall, Mendenhall should be a decent RB2 that you can probably easily snag with an RB3-type draft slot.
It's also worth keeping in mind that that in 2011, the great Beanie Wells ended up RB15 behind that line on only 245 carries. Mendenhall, if fully healthy, has more talent than Wells. In 2011 Wells only had 10 receptions too - so the touches for Mendenhall could be slightly higher than Wells' 2011 performance.
If Mendenhall is being drafted as an RB26 or later, than he is being undervalued, imho. He will likely finish somewhere right around RB20, presuming he doesn't get hurt.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I really want to like Mendenhall but I can't with the o-line/Schedule. I have him around 8 ppg near guys like BJGE and Chris Ivory in the late 20's.
8 ppg - I presume this is non-PPR projection. Think Mendenhall outproduces Ivory and BJGE in both formats, but in PPR - significantly so. Drafting him with an RB3-type of pick is becoming less and less possible the more Arians speaks and the more casual owners start reading up on his new situation.
The division schedule is bad indeed with twice SEA and once SF (Weeks 6, 7 and 16). The other SF game is irrelevant in Week 17. The rest of the schedule is actually quite good with the only other bad game being HOU - Week 10. Bye week is 9.
So, bottomline, expect a very strong start, then useless Weeks 6 - 10, then back up again. Might be a great value proposition to cash in maximum value after Weeks 4-5 from someone desperate at RB.
The division schedule is bad indeed with twice SEA and once SF (Weeks 6, 7 and 16). The other SF game is irrelevant in Week 17. The rest of the schedule is actually quite good with the only other bad game being HOU - Week 10. Bye week is 9.
So, bottomline, expect a very strong start, then useless Weeks 6 - 10, then back up again. Might be a great value proposition to cash in maximum value after Weeks 4-5 from someone desperate at RB.
