MFL10 2016 (1 Viewer)

[BoltBacker]

Starting to ramp up my volume on these.  Will be easing up on Gore, Latavius, Smith for a while, but the rest of the list I'm very cozy having at the top of my owned list.

My most frequently picked (of ~40 leagues):


Def


RAM Def


12


 


 


 


 


 


QB


Manning, Eli


11


 


 


 


 


 


Def


GBP Def


10


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Peterson, Adrian


9


 


 


 


 


 


TE


Bennett, Martellus


9


 


 


 


 


 


QB


Roethlisberger, Ben


8


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Hill, Jeremy


8


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Gore, Frank


8


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Lacy, Eddie


8


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Murray, Latavius


8


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Smith, Steve


8


 


 


 


 


 


Def


MIN Def


8


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Ingram, Mark


7


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Stewart, Jonathan


7


 


 


 


 


 


RB


Mathews, Ryan


7


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Sanders, Emmanuel


7


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Tate, Golden


7


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Jackson, DeSean


7


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Evans, Mike


7


 


 


 


 


 


WR


Hopkins, DeAndre


7


 


 


 


 


 


TE


Allen, Dwayne


7


 


 


 


 


 


Def


OAK Def


7


 


 


 


 


 

I like that RAM defense at ADP as well. 

The Steve Smith ranking is a little surprising to me.... how do you think the receiving pie in BAL works out?

Speaking of the Ravens, weren't you a big Forsett guy? Did the team drafting Dixon spook you? I have noticed the bottom has completely fallen out on the Javorius Allen since the draft. I never had much interest before but I have drafted him a few times very, very late.

 

[BroadwayG]

I have no idea how it is going to work out, but there are numbers to be had there.  I will likely target some Mike Wallace instead for a while.  In the 10th round as my WR5, I figured it was worth it for a guy who was top 10 in PPG last year.  I can swallow the risk the Achilles poses at that price.  I think there is a major drop off between Smith and the M Thomas/Doctson/Sanu/Agholor group that comes after him.

I was a big Forsett guy, and his ADP has held pretty steady.  I still think he's a fantastic bargain, but he hasn't ended up on any of my teams recently, probably deferring to TEs and QBs in his draft area.  Or possibly he's just not dropping in my drafts.

 

[Borden]

I heard Bloom talking with Mike Tagliere on a podcast and this Mike fella was talking about how he wrote a piece about 0 RB strategy. I know one of something I did last year was draft WR high often. I think I might do another MFL10 soon just to try this out. I was wondering if anyone has tried this yet?

Bloom counter with Duke Johnson and Gio that can be had in the 5th and 6th. Two guys who should perform well in a PPR setting. But Mike had some good points about Torrey Smiths potential to get a high volume of targets and that Marvin Jones could still be had later too. It was an interesting discussion and would like to here more from the people in this thread.

I went RB in the first four rounds of my home league with buddies. I lost in the finals. So it turned out alright. However, I also made trades and the everyone at the draft was at least 3 beers in by the time the draft started. So, I don't think it's a very good measuring stick. 

 

[Arodin]

I went RB in the first four rounds of my home league with buddies. I lost in the finals. So it turned out alright. However, I also made trades and the everyone at the draft was at least 3 beers in by the time the draft started. So, I don't think it's a very good measuring stick. 

I consider it an ironclad fantasy principle to always be the most sober person at the draft table.

 

[brun]

I heard Bloom talking with Mike Tagliere on a podcast and this Mike fella was talking about how he wrote a piece about 0 RB strategy. I know one of something I did last year was draft WR high often. I think I might do another MFL10 soon just to try this out. I was wondering if anyone has tried this yet?

Bloom counter with Duke Johnson and Gio that can be had in the 5th and 6th. Two guys who should perform well in a PPR setting. But Mike had some good points about Torrey Smiths potential to get a high volume of targets and that Mar?vin Jones could still be had later too. It was an interesting discussion and would like to here more from the people in this thread.

I went RB in the first four rounds of my home league with buddies. I lost in the finals. So it turned out alright. However, I also made trades and the everyone at the draft was at least 3 beers in by the time the draft started. So, I don't think it's a very good measuring stick. 

There seem to be a few serviceable RBs that are often available in rounds 5/6 in these drafts. I generally prefer to select my 1st RB from someone ranked in my top 10. So I usually have at least one by round 3.

 

[Borden]

Just joined one. Only as an experiment. So for science. I'm not getting back into these. 

 

[BradtheAg]

This is my first year doing MFL10s.  I'm through about 8 of them, and its amazing how fast the WRs are going.  You are basically forced to go Zero RB or you're left with a MASH unit of awful WRs

 

[massraider]

Is there decent ADP data anywhere for these?  

Just jumped in, with both feet.

 

[BoltBacker]

Is there decent ADP data anywhere for these?  

Just jumped in, with both feet.

http://www54.myfantasyleague.com/2016/adp?COUNT=300&POS=WR&INJURED=0&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=12&IS_PPR=1&IS_KEEPER=3&IS_MOCK=0&TIME=1464753600

It's the only ADP I pay attention to. Who cares what people are "mocking" with nothing on the line? Heard Cecil yammering about Zeke having a 3rd round ADP and had to chuckle. If you are basing ADP off some site that has Zeke going in the third round you are the guy that shows up to the draft with a magazine printed 4 months ago.

 

[BoltBacker]

This is my first year doing MFL10s.  I'm through about 8 of them, and its amazing how fast the WRs are going.  You are basically forced to go Zero RB or you're left with a MASH unit of awful WRs

I actually prefer going against the grain when so many people start going 0-RB. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I actually prefer going against the grain when so many people start going 0-RB. 

There are enough WR outside of the top 50 who can carry your team. Especially in best ball.

 

[BroadwayG]

Is there decent ADP data anywhere for these?  

Just jumped in, with both feet.

The link in the first post is always updated with 7 day MFL10 ADP.  It is also very handy to copy/paste into your 'my draft list' upload page.

 

[BroadwayG]

I heard Bloom talking with Mike Tagliere on a podcast and this Mike fella was talking about how he wrote a piece about 0 RB strategy. I know one of something I did last year was draft WR high often. I think I might do another MFL10 soon just to try this out. I was wondering if anyone has tried this yet?

Bloom counter with Duke Johnson and Gio that can be had in the 5th and 6th. Two guys who should perform well in a PPR setting. But Mike had some good points about Torrey Smiths potential to get a high volume of targets and that Marvin Jones could still be had later too. It was an interesting discussion and would like to here more from the people in this thread.

I went RB in the first four rounds of my home league with buddies. I lost in the finals. So it turned out alright. However, I also made trades and the everyone at the draft was at least 3 beers in by the time the draft started. So, I don't think it's a very good measuring stick. 

Much like last year, I'm spreading out strategies.  Just went into a Bloom special the other day and went RB/RB/RB.  Only have 2 WR through 7, and I'm sure I'll be fine.  The outline to navigate your first 6 or 7 picks depending on draft slot is starting to solidify.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is my first year doing MFL10s.  I'm through about 8 of them, and its amazing how fast the WRs are going.  You are basically forced to go Zero RB or you're left with a MASH unit of awful WRs

That's not terrible when it is best ball. You could probably get 3 good games a week out of Torrey, T.Benjamin, Wallace, Coates, Shepard, and Agholor and all of those guys are outside the top 36. I wouldn't want to have to set a lineup with that group, but I'd roll with them in best ball if I had studs at RB and TE.

 

[BradtheAg]

There are enough WR outside of the top 50 who can carry your team. Especially in best ball.

I get very uncomfortable outside of the top 60 WR.

I went RB heavy early in the first 5-6 I did and just did not feel comfortable with the WRs I ended up with.  If one of Gurley/Bell/Johnson/Elliott drops into very late first or early second I'm still taking them, but past those guys my first look is always WR for the first 3-4 rounds.  They go so fast.  I feel like I'm overpaying at times, but that only gets worse the later it gets.

I usually like the idea of zigging when others are zagging and always go very RB heavy in traditional redrafts, but so far I feel better about my rosters with elite WRs vs elite RBs.

 

[BoltBacker]

I get very uncomfortable outside of the top 60 WR.

I went RB heavy early in the first 5-6 I did and just did not feel comfortable with the WRs I ended up with.  If one of Gurley/Bell/Johnson/Elliott drops into very late first or early second I'm still taking them, but past those guys my first look is always WR for the first 3-4 rounds.  They go so fast.  I feel like I'm overpaying at times, but that only gets worse the later it gets.

I usually like the idea of zigging when others are zagging and always go very RB heavy in traditional redrafts, but so far I feel better about my rosters with elite WRs vs elite RBs.

How many RB's and how many WR's do you generally want to end up with?

 

[BradtheAg]

Usually 5-6 RBs and 7-8 WRs

 

[Biabreakable]

I get very uncomfortable outside of the top 60 WR.

I went RB heavy early in the first 5-6 I did and just did not feel comfortable with the WRs I ended up with.  If one of Gurley/Bell/Johnson/Elliott drops into very late first or early second I'm still taking them, but past those guys my first look is always WR for the first 3-4 rounds.  They go so fast.  I feel like I'm overpaying at times, but that only gets worse the later it gets.

I usually like the idea of zigging when others are zagging and always go very RB heavy in traditional redrafts, but so far I feel better about my rosters with elite WRs vs elite RBs.

Yeah well I like to be ahead of run whenever possible. So drafting some WR early is still a good idea.

Here is an example of me waiting on WR from last season. This is a 16 team league awards 0 PPR for RB 1 PPR for WR and 2 PPR for TE. So of course I draft some RB at the beginning of the draft anyways.

These are the WR I ended up with

5.09    73.    Jackson, DeSean WAS WR    110.50    
6.08    88.    Brown, John ARI WR    227.20    
8.08    120.    Wright, Kendall TEN WR     96.50    
15.09    233.    Shorts, Cecil HOU WR    115.44    
16.08    248.    Lockett, Tyler SEA WR    176.40    
17.09    265.    Hartline, Brian CLE WR  110.30

Aside from Lockett and Brown these guys were not at all good but I still had the second most points in the league. 

Try to get comfortable with the WR being drafted later because that you make you more confident about getting some of those players later if you do decide to draft other positions in the early part of the draft.

I don't think it is good to skip WR for the 1st five picks. Drafting one or two in the first 3 rounds is still a good idea if the value at WR is there. Just saying it can still be done if things do go that way.

 

[BoltBacker]

Just jumped in, with both feet.

What made you wait so long? Are you an FFPC guy?

 

[Steeler]

Added league selection only showing available players for the league as well as a rough trend/target point.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/Adv

I'm in the 4th round of my first MFL10 and this looks like a great tool!  

However, it is showing some players that have already been draft in my league - not that big of a deal, but thought I'd point it out.  Is that happening for anyone else?

 

[BroadwayG]

I haven't been able to work on it in quite some time.  That's one of the things on 'the list'; to query and update the league after it is searched for.  With a toddler and pregnant wife, I don't know when I'll be able to do any updates.  So for the time being you'll have to wait for me to refresh everything which I do at least twice a day.  This morning's just got done.

 

[Steeler]

Thanks Broadway - wasn't complaining, just wanted to share what I saw.

 

[BroadwayG]

No problem, didn't take it that way, happy people are using it.  I just put up an update so that the league data will update prior to displaying available players.

It appears something isn't quite right, sometimes you have to put in your league twice to get it to refresh.  Have no idea why it would do that, I'll take a look at it sometime.

 

[Borden]

Thought I'd start up a new thread for the new year.  This is the first day.  8 leagues started the first day last year.  Already 36 live leagues in the system.  I'll likely end up ~ 100 leagues again, but I'm just running one at a time for a while.  I'll see if I get get my web app running this weekend.

First draft, had 10 slot, went Peterson/Evans.  Using the Mock Draft Forum WSLs as an extremely rough outline for ADP for this first one.

New board completely messed up the code window too.  Looks like crap but here's some ADP after 4 hours.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/DraftList

Added league selection only showing available players for the league as well as a rough trend/target point.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/Adv

Wow. This is extremely helpful. I don't know how you do this. It's like magic to me. I already liked the post but didn't use the links. Thank you very much. Did you make these? If so you need to to bump them on every there's a new page on the thread. If Steeler wouldn't have brought it up I would've missed it. I think MR did too. 

 

[Borden]

Started another one to try the zero RB. Drew the 2 spot. I'm just going to go full force on the zero WR. I'm not going to even try to "win" this one. Full out research purposes. Since I'm doing this one for "research" input on who I should take is appreciated.

***Anyone notice how I explained away my addiction.  ***

 

[BoltBacker]

Started another one to try the zero RB. Drew the 2 spot. I'm just going to go full force on the zero RB. I'm not going to even try to "win" this one. Full out research purposes. Since I'm doing this one for "research" input on who I should take is appreciated.

***Anyone notice how I explained away my addiction.  ***

Hmmmmmm, I really like the RB's available at that 2.11/3.02 turn.... but to each his own. 

What do you consider the definition of "zero RB" anyway? For instance I have been in leagues where a guy went.....


Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (P)


110.9


10


7.03


Allen, Javorius BAL RB


132.7


8


9.03


Jones, Matt WAS RB


114.4


9


6.10


Prosise, C.J. SEA RB (R)


-


5


16.10



... or where a guy went....


Booker, Devontae DEN RB (R) (P)


-


11


14.07


Foster, Arian FA* RB (Q)


77.0


-


12.07


Johnson, Chris ARI RB


107.2


9


18.07


Mathews, Ryan PHI RB


121.7


4


7.06


Riddick, Theo DET RB


171.7


10


8.07


Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB


227.3


8


15.06

... and they are both kind of extreme zero-RB in different ways.

 

[cheese]

Started another one to try the zero RB. Drew the 2 spot. I'm just going to go full force on the zero RB. I'm not going to even try to "win" this one. Full out research purposes. Since I'm doing this one for "research" input on who I should take is appreciated.

***Anyone notice how I explained away my addiction.  ***

Abrown...Hilton...Sammy... ARodgers

I have been looking at guys like CJ Anderson from there though because I don't love the WR in the 4-6 range. Going pure 0rb, maybe use those rounds to be strong QB/TE

 

[Borden]

Sorry Gents. I meant all RB/0 WR to start. The brain and the hands didn't sync up on that one. 

A conversation carried over from the other MFL10 thread. 

 

[Steeler]

Added league selection only showing available players for the league as well as a rough trend/target point.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/Adv

Help me understand the "Target" column from BroadwayG's awesome ADP page.  For example, Murray is the highest rated player in my current draft and has an ADP just over 50 which means a pick at the top of the 5th round.  But the Target column shows that he should be picked at the early part of round 6?  Most of the players have a Target number that is much higher than the ADP to Round/Pick calculation.  What am I missing here?  

Name			Pos	Team	ADP	Trend	Target
Murray, Latavius	RB	OAK	50.19	3.02	6.01

 

[BroadwayG]

Target calculates some ratio between the player's 7 day ADP and the max pick number.  Gives a brief glance into the 'spread' of a player's picks.  If a player hits the target round, you know you're getting a very good deal, at least relatively speaking.

Currently the rookie numbers are off for some unknown reason.  Ezekiel Elliot obviously should not have a target of round 11.

 

[BoltBacker]

Currently the rookie numbers are off for some unknown reason.  Ezekiel Elliot obviously should not have a target of round 11.

When Cecil sees that I expect him to argue very vociferously that Elliot should be drafted earlier than the 11th round. That guy loves to tear into a straw man like it was a blocking dummy.

 

[Borden]

So the first stage of All-RB-Early has been completed. First 4 picks (out of the 2 spot): Lev Bell, Martin, McCoy, Rawls.

Stage 2 is WR. Maybe a TE or QB sprinkled in if the situation requires. 

 

[Biabreakable]

So the first stage of All-RB-Early has been completed. First 4 picks (out of the 2 spot): Lev Bell, Martin, McCoy, Rawls.

Stage 2 is WR. Maybe a TE or QB sprinkled in if the situation requires. 

I am curious who your WR will end up being.

From a VBD perspective there are many more WR who will put up points than there are RB. So as long as your later WR do enough to keep the top WR from outscoring you much, the RB should be better than most teams and you win with that edge. Drafting a lot of WR gives you better odds of one (or a few) of them hitting each week.

How many WR do you plan to take? 7-8 ?

 

[Borden]

I am curious who your WR will end up being.

From a VBD perspective there are many more WR who will put up points than there are RB. So as long as your later WR do enough to keep the top WR from outscoring you much, the RB should be better than most teams and you win with that edge. Drafting a lot of WR gives you better odds of one (or a few) of them hitting each week.

How many WR do you plan to take? 7-8 ?

Took Cam at 5.02. Parker was the next WR according to Broadway's site. Sanders was also still on the board. I just couldn't pass on Cam. 

2 QB, 4 RB, 3 TE, 2 D, 8 WR and 1 "I have to take this guy here."

 

[Borden]

I am not smart. Disregard.

 

[BoltBacker]

So the first stage of All-RB-Early has been completed. First 4 picks (out of the 2 spot): Lev Bell, Martin, McCoy, Rawls.

Stage 2 is WR. Maybe a TE or QB sprinkled in if the situation requires. 

Wow, I don;t hate your strategy....... but if you are planning to only have 4 RB I think you chose 4 very, very risky RB's. I will admit I am lower on Bell, McCoy, and Rawls than anyone I know. I own Martin in 21% of my leagues but view it as a bit of a home-run swing because he has been so boom or bust over his career.

I haven't gone 4 RB in any leagues but if I tried it I would only do it if I was drafting in the second half of round one and would focus on 4 guys with high floors.

Hope it works out for you brother.

 

[massraider]

I'm in the midst of my first two drafts.  

It's pretty apparent, in my little sample size, that most people are going 0-RB, and the fact is everyone can't all use the same strategy, and field a decent team.  

I definitely went in to these drafts with a vague notion to go 0-RB, and try and get three great WRs right off the bat.  Well, if everyone is going WR, the WRs you are taking in the 3rd round are simply not as consistent or talented as the RB there.  

At the 4/5 turn (I had the 2 spot), I saw a big tier of WR dry up right before me (Decker/Fitz/Baldwin/Tate etc.).  I had two WR (and Lacy).  

I didn't love any of the WR left.  Wound up taking Dion Lewis and Greg Olsen, wrapped around guy with 1st pick taking Jordan Matthews and DaVante Parker.  Parker and Dion Lewis going in the same range?  Doesn't seem correct to me.

I think if I was picking towards the end of the round, I'd be looking to go WR-WR, but then be open to the idea of snapping up two RB at the 3/4 turn.  Some people are just going WR come hell or high water, and we are seeing RB1-type guys in the 4th/5th round.  

 

[Borden]

Wow, I don;t hate your strategy....... but if you are planning to only have 4 RB I think you chose 4 very, very risky RB's. I will admit I am lower on Bell, McCoy, and Rawls than anyone I know. I own Martin in 21% of my leagues but view it as a bit of a home-run swing because he has been so boom or bust over his career.

I haven't gone 4 RB in any leagues but if I tried it I would only do it if I was drafting in the second half of round one and would focus on 4 guys with high floors.

Hope it works out for you brother.

The 2 spot is terrible for this 4 RB thing but I said I was going to do this to no matter what. I would've preferred more stable players too. I'm fine with Bell and Martin but McCoy and Rawls are my concern. Both have competition behind them and had injuries last year. If I had been picking from the 10, 11 or 12 ideally I would've got Gurley or Zeke then AP. Then at the next turn go CJA and Lewis. Ideally. The back draft spots would've allowed for more of a solid floor but the high risk guys are also high upside. 

I'm not worried one bit about if it works out or not. For $10 it's worth to see how it turns out. The more important/interesting part comes now, seeing how the rest of the team shakes out. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Hmm there is a fine line between bravery and foolishness. When I have gone against the grain taking RB in a format where I really shouldn't be doing that, I was taking Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore. Due to all of the injuries to other RB Peterson was very valuable from a VBD perspective last season. There is no PPR for RB in that format, which makes him more valuable as well. I feel somewhat guilty for talking about forgoing WR with some bravado, you still need to draft to your format with consideration for ADP. 16 teams is different than 12 as well. Total points is different than best ball where you have head to head match ups. So I feel a little bit bad for talking this contrarian strategy up. Even though it worked out pretty well for me, I got lucky and what I did is not what I consider to be an ideal strategy for that format. I was more foolish than confident. Of course I been doing this a long time too and there is no money involved, just testing my projections really.

I don't think you should go into a draft with the intent of using any one strategy. You want to be flexible and take the best player for your first 3 to 5 picks before I would form a specific strategy. That strategy would be based on how the start of my draft went.

Both you and massraider were drafting from the 2 spot correct?

I think you take either Brown or OBJ for the first pick, which is nice because you get ahead of the WR run. I wouldn't consider anyone else.

the 2/3 turn gets tricky. Because you need to be thinking about who is going to be gone at the 4/5 turn. 

Here is the linked draft list broken down at the two spot picks:

23 Marshall, Brandon    WR    NYJ    23.79    -0.61    3.32
Thomas, Demaryius    WR    DEN    24.68    -0.53    3.36
Hilton, T.Y.    WR    IND    26.24    -0.64    3.55

26 Lacy, Eddie    RB    GBP    26.48    1.67    3.77
Ingram, Mark    RB    NOS    26.49    -1.44    3.60
Watkins, Sammy    WR    BUF    28.53    1.63    3.98
Martin, Doug    RB    TBB    30.04    -0.82    3.96
30 Landry, Jarvis    WR    MIA    30.36    0.92    3.89
Cobb, Randall    WR    GBP    31.61    -2.01    4.11
Edelman, Julian    WR    NEP    32.64    -0.53    4.19
McCoy, LeSean    RB    BUF    34.64    1.39    4.44
Tate, Golden    WR    DET    34.65    1.72    4.32
Benjamin, Kelvin    WR    CAR    35.72    -0.42    4.45
36 Reed, Jordan    TE    WAS    36.18    1.47    4.80
Maclin, Jeremy    WR    KCC    36.87    -0.45    4.58
Forte, Matt    RB    NYJ    38.34    0.40    4.68
40 Lewis, Dion    RB    NEP    39.97    -1.77    4.87
Hyde, Carlos    RB    SFO    40.41    0.17    4.85
Anderson, C.J.    RB    DEN    41.98    -4.02    5.42
Moncrief, Donte    WR    IND    44.65    1.89    5.32
Baldwin, Doug    WR    SEA    45.17    -1.55    5.38
Newton, Cam    QB    CAR    45.24    2.57    5.80
 Rawls, Thomas    RB    SEA    45.93    -0.75    5.46

47 Matthews, Jordan    WR    PHI    46.97    0.96    5.83
Floyd, Michael    WR    ARI    47.71    -2.60    5.53
Fitzgerald, Larry    WR    ARI    49.52    2.80    5.98

50 Murray, Latavius    RB    OAK    49.82    1.94    5.87
Decker, Eric    WR    NYJ    50.74    -0.42    5.86
Parker, DeVante    WR    MIA    54.30    3.45    6.18
Woodhead, Danny    RB    SDC    55.18    2.79    6.26
Johnson, Duke    RB    CLE    55.68    -2.30    6.36
55 Jones, Matt    RB    WAS    55.86    -0.28    6.29
Olsen, Greg    TE    CAR    55.87    -0.78    6.62
Murray, DeMarco
Brown, John    WR    ARI    56.85    4.75    6.41
Sanders, Emmanuel    WR    DEN    56.95    -1.72    6.46
60 Rodgers, Aaron    QB    GBP    57.04    4.42    6.63
Mathews, Ryan    RB    PHI    58.80    0.10    7.12
Ajayi, Jay    RB    MIA    60.54    -0.56    6.65
Hurns, Allen    WR    JAC    61.68    1.26    6.90
White, Kevin    WR    CHI    62.08    1.07    7.00
65 Bernard, Giovani    RB    CIN    64.77    2.62    7.57
Langford, Jeremy    RB    CHI    66.21    5.92    7.18
Coleman, Corey    WR    CLE    66.24    4.70    13.89
Crabtree, Michael    WR    OAK    66.88    -3.61    7.62
Hill, Jeremy

70 Luck, Andrew    QB    IND    71.11    -1.41    7.80
71 Stewart, Jonathan    RB    CAR    71.61    1.85    7.78
Kelce, Travis    TE    KCC    71.91    -0.73    7.95
Lockett, Tyler    WR    SEA    73.01    -1.59    8.88

74 Wilson, Russell    QB    SEA    74.07    -3.62    8.21
Gore, Frank    RB    IND    74.61    -2.27    7.94
Jones, Marvin    WR    DET    74.94    -0.66    8.54
Jackson, DeSean    WR    WAS    75.64    -1.24    8.15
Eifert, Tyler    TE    CIN    78.74    2.02    8.61
Abdullah, Ameer    RB    DET    79.27    -1.11    8.26
Yeldon, T.J.    RB    JAC    80.58    -0.66    8.94
Fleener, Coby    TE    NOS    81.22    -1.97    8.34
Walker, Delanie    TE    TEN    81.47    -1.55    8.73
Green-Beckham, Dorial

I see the opportunity to possibly get Russell Wilson or Luck at the 6/7 turn so I wouldn't target a QB earlier than this. I see enough viable WR and RB options that I wouldn't be married to any strategy specifically. I think it would be good to get Jordan Reed, but it is really difficult to do from this draft position without reaching too much.

Drafting in the middle is usually better for a zig/zag strategy because when you are at the turns you have to be thinking ahead more.

Kowing the run on WR is going to be early and often, I would just try to stay ahead of that drafting from the top of the order. Maybe if Miller or Peterson fell to the 2/3 turn I would consider them. It would be a hard choice if Charles was there. There are enough WR that I would expect to get 3 WR then maybe look at Jay Ajati Duke Johnson or some other RBs at picks 47 and 50.

 

[massraider]

I drafted 2nd, and 4th, in my two entries.

Yep, I took OBJ after Brown, and at the 2/3 turn took Amari Cooper, and Lacy.  

The WRs that went after Lacy were:  Hilton, Watkins, Landry, Cobb, Benjamin, Maclin, Edelman.  I can only speak for myself, but I thought there was a major dropoff after Cooper, and felt lucky I got him there.  If I was sticking with 0-RB, I would have gone Benjamin or Hilton (instead of Lacy).  

I actually went waaaay off the 0-RB reservation with this team, as at the 4/5 turn I took Greg Olsen and Dion Lewis.  But I was thrilled with both players, and thought there was a drop-off at both positions, and meantime, I thought there was a bunch of WRs in a glut.  

I got the rest of my WRs at 6/7, and took Austin and DGB.  

Actually, in the other MFL 10, I took Austin and DGB at 6/7 as well.  Ha, I just realized that.

I'll take that all day long.  

 

[Biabreakable]

I like Austin as a later guy as well.

 

[BoltBacker]

I like Austin as a later guy as well.

What do you consider "later"? The 6/7 turn seems too rich for my blood. Maybe if he gets 500 receiving yards one day.

 

[BoltBacker]

Drafting in the middle is usually better for a zig/zag strategy because when you are at the turns you have to be thinking ahead more.

I completely agree with this. 

Although sometimes I think when I draft in the middle I fall into the trap of trying to win the ADP-battle rather than winning the war by ending up with a team full of players I like the most. It's a fine line. Sometimes tapping into the "wisdom of crowds"(when it works, "group think" when it doesn't) helps with roster diversification. Last year I swore I would never go all-in on another CJ Spiller but I'm actually getting there with Carlos Hyde in ~30% of my 2016 leagues. (SIGH)

 

[Biabreakable]

Bolt Backer, Tavon Austin did have 907 combined yards and 9TD last season.

Even though he will only be a rookie in 2016 I would expect Goff to be an upgrade from the dynamic duo of Foles and Keenum.

Who else are you going to pick in the 6th/7th round that is a better option?

Yeah ADP is helpful, but sometimes you just need to reach a round ahead if you really want a guy, for example Josh Reed. 

I always struggle a bit with redraft as I can't completely set aside my dynasty perspective. I draft guys a year early a lot.

 

[BoltBacker]

Bolt Backer, Tavon Austin did have 907 combined yards and 9TD last season.

Even though he will only be a rookie in 2016 I would expect Goff to be an upgrade from the dynamic duo of Foles and Keenum.

Who else are you going to pick in the 6th/7th round that is a better option?

Yeah ADP is helpful, but sometimes you just need to reach a round ahead if you really want a guy, for example Josh Reed. 

I always struggle a bit with redraft as I can't completely set aside my dynasty perspective. I draft guys a year early a lot.

While I agree with you about reaching for the guys you believe in even if ADP suggests it would be wise to do so and that Goff will be a better QB than what we have seen in the Rams offense for awhile..... I just think those rushing yards from the WR position are too volatile to count on. The closest comparison I can make is Percy Harvin(although Harvin had shown much, much more as a receiver from the moment he got in the league) and as special a runner he was he would get 100 yards one year, 350 the next, 200 the next.

If anything, some people might think Austin will suffer from having more competition for targets from the Rams additions in the draft at WR/TE. The pie may be bigger but Austin may have a smaller piece of it.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah I agree with you that Austin may put up better numbers in 2017 when Goff has more experience. That is kind of why my thoughts drifted to being a year ahead some times.

I also agree the rushing yards are hard to count on. I do think Fisher is committed to the offense incorporating constraint plays and their fakes as a staple of their offense. That is why they used such a high draft pick on Austin. The offensive coordinator hasn't changed. So perhaps the rushing attempts will remain pretty high again.

 

[BoltBacker]

Yeah I agree with you that Austin may put up better numbers in 2017 when Goff has more experience. That is kind of why my thoughts drifted to being a year ahead some times.

I also agree the rushing yards are hard to count on. I do think Fisher is committed to the offense incorporating constraint plays and their fakes as a staple of their offense. That is why they used such a high draft pick on Austin. The offensive coordinator hasn't changed. So perhaps the rushing attempts will remain pretty high again.

Yeah, the OC staying is a strong argument. 

Another problem I have even in dynasty..... they already picked up his tender. Do they even keep him if they are forced to pay him that much and he doesn't "catch 100 balls".... or something similar. I'll admit I'm a draft wonk so the additions of Cooper/Thomas at WR and Higbee/Hemingway have me excited. We have no idea who will be Goff's favorite target yet so there is a lot up in the air. 

There is also the possibility with a full year of Gurley and Goff, this team may actually be better than .500 finally even in a tough division. Maybe Goff is much more efficient than the guys from the past but the Rams have to pass even less often. 

So many moving pieces I guess we are just guessing..... still, if Austin and Marvin Jones are sitting there at pick #74 it won't take me long to decide between the two. 

 

[Biabreakable]

I really like Mike Thomas and I expect him to become a favorite outside. Your right though it is hard to say who Goff ends up trusting more. I think part of drafting Austin this year, is making a bet that Austin is Goff's favorite this season.

You bring up a great point comparing Marvin Jones opportunity to Austins.

In PPR leagues a reception is worth points while those 52 rushing attempts Austin had do not generate any points.

Austin had 87 targets and 52 rushing attempts last season. That is 139 opportunities. Now imagine those were all targets instead of a third of them being rushing attempts. Austin would be going in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[BoltBacker]

Austin had 87 targets and 52 rushing attempts last season. That is 139 opportunities. Now imagine those were all targets instead of a third of them being rushing attempts. Austin would be going in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Very true. Keep in mind he had more yards/rec and TD/rec than he had yards/rush and TD/rush as well so his gross stats would be even better.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well maybe this is what Fisher is hinting at with saying Austin could catch 100 in this offense. They already gave him enough volume to potentially accomplish that. All they would need to do is throw to him a bit more than using him as a runner.

For example what if Austin had 120 targets and 35 rushing attempts in 2016. 

Austin's catch rate was 59.8% last season on 87 targets. With some improved accuracy that number could go up and should go up because a lot of his targets are high percentage throws. With better ball placement his yards after the catch could really improve as well. He averaged 9.1 ypr last season.

So I see quite a bit of upside being possible without too much change in how Austin is utilized. 

If an outside receiver like Mike Thomas develops as a deep threat, I think that will help open up things for Austin. 

Gurley wants to be more involved in the passing game, and I think he should be. That might take some of Austins opportunity. If healthy I don't see the Rams giving Austin the ball as much as they did last year when they could give it to Gurley instead.