MFL10 2016 (1 Viewer)

[BoltBacker]

For example what if Austin had 120 targets and 35 rushing attempts in 2016. 

What would happen if Austin's targets jumped to 120 from 87? By the same offensive coordinator? When more talent has been added to the passing game to compete for targets?

Well, I would start considering him before the 8th round. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Biabreakable]

Last season Austin averaged 5.4 targets. game. For him to get 120 targets over the same time frame would require that he gets 7.4 targets/game. So an increase of 2 targets per game. Many WR get 7-8 targets per game if they are one of the top 2 players for team targets. 

Is 2014 Austin had 44 targets in 8 games so that would be 88 over 16. This is right there with his 87 targets last season. So a median projection of 90 targets seems pretty solid based off the past two seasons.

Rams offense

2013 968 plays 506pa 426ra 52% pass
2914 957 plays 515pa 395ra 54% pass
2015 920 plays 473pa 429ra 51% pass

The average number of total plays for the past 3 years has been 948 so it is likely the total number of plays will increase by 30. 

The average number of passing attempts was 498 so it seems likely they will throw the ball 25-30 more times in 2016.

So if nothing else changes I could see Austin getting 120 targets just because of progression to the mean in total plays and passing attempts.

Jared Cook was the 2nd most targeted player for the Rams last season and he is gone. I wouldn't expect a rookie TE to take that many targets. Not sure if Highbees blocking will get him on the field much this season, but maybe.

Britt was the next highest player with 72 targets. Not sure if the rookie WR can push him for playing time. Pharoh Cooper seems like an attempt to replace Stedman Bailey. I don't think much of him as a player and don't see him being very involved, but could be wrong on that. I like Mike Thomas better than him and I think he can do what the Rams need, which is threaten the defense deep. A player in this role does not take a lot of targets however. Mike Thomas can do more than that for sure, but I wouldn't expect a ton of targets for him as a rookie.

So I expect Austin to be the top target in 2016.

28 players had 120 or more targets last season.

42 players had 100 or more targets last season.

I don't think that upside is out of reach. 

Tavon Austin 70-90-110 targets is how I would project that for him in 2016

Marvin Jones had 103 targets last season. I am not really confident that he will have more targets than this in the Lions offense. I think Riddick will continue to get 100 targets and Tates targets to rise, possibly to similar numbers as Calvin had. I am not sure if Ebron becomes the 2nd most targeted player or if that is Jones, but I am leaning more towards it being Ebron. So Jones might not get to 100 targets.

I wouldn't take Austin over Tate, but I likely would take him over Jones.

 

[massraider]

I can see someone taking Jones, over Austin. Travis Benjamin as well.  He went after I took Austin and DGB.

But I'm not sure how many other names I like in this area.  

You don't like Austin at 6/7 turn? Who DO you like? Because aside from QB, this is when it starts getting a little tight 

 

[Biabreakable]

The 6/7 turn is pick 72/73

According to G's list 


Bernard, Giovani


RB


CIN


62.33


Crabtree, Michael


WR


OAK


66.01


Langford, Jeremy


RB


CHI


66.26


Coleman, Corey


WR


CLE


66.71


Hill, Jeremy


RB


CIN


69.87


Luck, Andrew


QB


IND


70.40


Stewart, Jonathan


RB


CAR


72.50


Lockett, Tyler


WR


SEA


72.56


Kelce, Travis


TE


KCC


73.34


Wilson, Russell


QB


SEA


73.93


Gore, Frank


RB


IND


74.52


Jones, Marvin


WR


DET


74.73


Jackson, DeSean


WR


WAS


75.22


Abdullah, Ameer


RB


DET


79.51


Eifert, Tyler


TE


CIN


79.88


Yeldon, T.J.


RB


JAC


80.08


Fleener, Coby


TE


NOS


81.31


Green-Beckham, Dorial


WR


TEN


81.45


Walker, Delanie


TE


TEN


82.34


Treadwell, Laquon


WR


MIN


84.05


Gordon, Melvin


RB


SDC


84.58


Sims, Charles


RB


TBB


86.19


Brees, Drew


QB


NOS


87.50


Smith, Torrey


WR


SFO


87.55


Shepard, Sterling


WR


NYG


88.64


Snead, Willie


WR


NOS


89.75


Riddick, Theo


RB


DET


89.88


Austin, Tavon


WR


RAM


91.03


Roethlisberger, Ben


QB


PIT


94.42


Diggs, Stefon


WR


MIN


97.21


Ertz, Zach


TE


PHI


97.60


Ivory, Chris


RB


JAC


97.73


Green, Ladarius

Lockett is pick 72. 

I would take him over Austin if he is there.

If Coleman or Luck (other guys going ahead of pick 72) fell I would take them over Austin.

Kelce, Walker, Drew Brees or Russell Wilson are guys I would consider over him.

I suppose Jones, Torrey Smith, Shephard are WR you might consider over Austin. I think I like Austin's upside a bit more than these guys, but I can understand people perhaps preferring Jones or Shephard as safer or more consistent, while others might like Smiths upside more.

If DeSean Jackson was there I might take him over Austin, that's a tough one.

 

[BroadwayG]

This is Austin's chart: http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/main/Player?playerID=6423

You can see the difference coachspeak makes in ADP.  Even after the jump, the 6/7 turn is at the very top of his range.  But if you gotta have him, I suppose that's where you need to take him.

 

[massraider]

This is Austin's chart: http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/main/Player?playerID=6423

You can see the difference coachspeak makes in ADP.  Even after the jump, the 6/7 turn is at the very top of his range.  But if you gotta have him, I suppose that's where you need to take him.

Yeah, drafting early in the round, if I thought he would last till 8/9, that would be great, but the way my drafts wound up playing out, I doubt it.  

 

[BroadwayG]

Being able to be patient and collect guys at significant value instead of significant cost is one of the major advantages of volume drafting in these.

 

[BradtheAg]

I'm about halfway through my 8th MFL10 now.  Was excited to get Gurley at 1.09, but concerned I overpaid for ARob at 2.04 as he seems like a likely candidate for touchdown regression.  Based on this I went WR in 3/4/5, they were flying off the board as usual.  Considering carrying 3 TE on this one.  Thoughts so far?  Trying to learn so any feedback is welcome


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


Palmer, Carson ARI QB


347.0


9


10.04


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (P)


108.3


11


8.04


Gore, Frank IND RB (P)


185.8


10


6.04


Gurley, Todd RAM RB


208.4


8


1.09


Vereen, Shane NYG RB


144.1


8


11.09


Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB


155.9


5


7.09


Benjamin, Travis SDC WR


183.5


11


9.09


Cobb, Randall GBP WR (P)


198.9


4


3.09


Crabtree, Michael OAK WR


218.8


10


5.09


Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR (P)


227.0


5


4.04


Robinson, Allen JAC WR (P)


288.2


5


2.04


Witten, Jason DAL TE


146.5


7


12.04

 ​

 ​

 

[BoltBacker]

You don't like Austin at 6/7 turn? Who DO you like? Because aside from QB, this is when it starts getting a little tight 

It depends on how my team looks so far, and to a lesser extent it depends on what the TE situation looks like. I am usually in one of two places....

2RB/3WR - In this case I have no problem going RB/RB because I really like those WR's. I have Gore on 24% of my teams(although he was going much cheaper earlier), Bernard on 15%(he's not there often), Hill 15%, Stewart 12%. I would still consider Crabtree/Marvin Jones if they were there but they aren't very often. I have actually seen Olsen here from time to time and nab him when I can.

3RB/2WR - Obviously taking either Crabtree/Marvin Jones would be my move at the bottom of the sixth, but sometimes they aren't. The seventh rounder is more up in the air depending on how TE's are playing out. If Gronk/Reed/Olsen are all gone I would strongly consider Kelce. If all four of those TE's are gone I actually consider reaching for Fleener as a defensive move because there are 20 more picks before I have the opportunity to pick a TE1 and I have no idea what will happen by pick #95. There should be a guy from the Ertz/Green/Barnidge/Thomas tier.... but I have been in leagues where they are all gone by pick #95. If I don't have a TE1 and all those guys are gone then I'm probably going 4 TE's which isn't ideal. This is also where it matters what TEAM_1 is doing with their team. If he has two TE's by the time I am picking in the 7th round for instance then it's more likely I'm taking TE at the top of the 7th because there is obviously more pent up demand for TE in those next 20 picks. There's a good chance I either go WR/WR or WR/TE here.

There are other variables that go into your decision but those are the two most common situation when you are picking 6.11 and 7.02 so I just used those. Even if I was reaching for a WR I would probably Torrey Smith because he's a "best-ball" type of WR with a very high possible ceiling imo but I respect those that have a different opinion. I genuinely enjoy the discussion in these types of threads. A lot of it simply boils down to gross # of targets the offense will generate, and the competition for those targets. I like the WR/TE's LA added so I think there is more competition than most people think, and Smith doesn't have nearly as much competition imo. I also just think the total passing attempts by the Niners will be greater than the pass attempts of the Rams.

 

[BoltBacker]

This is Austin's chart: http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/main/Player?playerID=6423

You can see the difference coachspeak makes in ADP.  Even after the jump, the 6/7 turn is at the very top of his range.  But if you gotta have him, I suppose that's where you need to take him.

Wow, this is where my own feelings are completely disconnected from the community and it could be simply because I am higher on those rookies than others are. In my ranks he took a slight dip after the draft and from that data it appears most others have given him a bump post-draft.

 

[BoltBacker]

Last season Austin averaged 5.4 targets. game. For him to get 120 targets over the same time frame would require that he gets 7.4 targets/game. So an increase of 2 targets per game. Many WR get 7-8 targets per game if they are one of the top 2 players for team targets. 

Is 2014 Austin had 44 targets in 8 games so that would be 88 over 16. This is right there with his 87 targets last season. So a median projection of 90 targets seems pretty solid based off the past two seasons.

Rams offense

2013 968 plays 506pa 426ra 52% pass
2914 957 plays 515pa 395ra 54% pass
2015 920 plays 473pa 429ra 51% pass

The average number of total plays for the past 3 years has been 948 so it is likely the total number of plays will increase by 30. 

The average number of passing attempts was 498 so it seems likely they will throw the ball 25-30 more times in 2016.

So if nothing else changes I could see Austin getting 120 targets just because of progression to the mean in total plays and passing attempts.

Jared Cook was the 2nd most targeted player for the Rams last season and he is gone. I wouldn't expect a rookie TE to take that many targets. Not sure if Highbees blocking will get him on the field much this season, but maybe.

Britt was the next highest player with 72 targets. Not sure if the rookie WR can push him for playing time. Pharoh Cooper seems like an attempt to replace Stedman Bailey. I don't think much of him as a player and don't see him being very involved, but could be wrong on that. I like Mike Thomas better than him and I think he can do what the Rams need, which is threaten the defense deep. A player in this role does not take a lot of targets however. Mike Thomas can do more than that for sure, but I wouldn't expect a ton of targets for him as a rookie.

So I expect Austin to be the top target in 2016.

28 players had 120 or more targets last season.

42 players had 100 or more targets last season.

I don't think that upside is out of reach. 

Tavon Austin 70-90-110 targets is how I would project that for him in 2016

Marvin Jones had 103 targets last season. I am not really confident that he will have more targets than this in the Lions offense. I think Riddick will continue to get 100 targets and Tates targets to rise, possibly to similar numbers as Calvin had. I am not sure if Ebron becomes the 2nd most targeted player or if that is Jones, but I am leaning more towards it being Ebron. So Jones might not get to 100 targets.

I wouldn't take Austin over Tate, but I likely would take him over Jones.

Yeah, we just disagree on a lot of this stuff.

The biggest part is I don't see DET passing less than they have in the past after losing Bell and with Abdullah already having shoulder problems. I see Tate/Ebron as the short routes with Marvin Jones getting at least as many targets as Tate did over the last two years(averaged 136/season). There is no AJ Green on the field with this team, and certainly no Hill/Geo to run the ball and the game script is expected to be much, much different than it was CIN. 

Austin struggled to get 87 targets with Britt/Cook as his only real competition. IMO the competition is greater from the rookies, and while I'm not a big fan of Brian Quick he's further removed from his shoulder issue. I expect to see the % of targets to both Austin/Britt to be smaller. Perhaps most of all I don't think it was just a coincidence LA ran fewer plays after drafting Gurley. With Gurley available for an entire season(and catching more passes?) if anything I expect LA to run even fewer passing plays this year, not more. Some of that may be to hide the rookie QB, but mostly I just expect the running game to much more efficient. 

We may not see eye to eye in this case but it was interesting to hear your point of view. At the end of the day it may just be that Austin is a risky pick and Jones is a safe pick imo and I will absolutely admit to being risk adverse in the top half of MFL 10's. Sometimes I miss out on ascending talents because of that.

 

[massraider]

I think a big part of the disconnect is definitely your opinion of those rookies as compared to everyone else, as you said.  

Not only are Cooper and Thomas going to contribute,  they are going to eat into Austin's targets?  That's asking a lot from them. 

 

[Biabreakable]

It is possible Quick finally emerges. That could be really good for Goff and the offense.

The Lions threw the ball 636, 604, 634 times the past 3 seasons. I expect them to throw 600 times. The Rams only 500 times. The Bengals have only been throwing about 500 times under Hue Jackson. So yes Jones is entering a higher volume offense than the one he left.

Last season Lions targets

Calvin 149

Tate 128

Riddick 99

Ebron 70 (14 games so 80 accounting for the 2 missed games) Tim Wright had 6 and 5 targets in the two games where Ebron was out.

Lance Moore 43

Ameer 38

Bell 27

Pettigrew 15

Others 19

If Tate and Jones split pretty evenly, say 130 targets each, and RIddick gets 100 still, that is 360  targets

Whoever ends up being the WR 3, TJ Jones, Roberts, Corey Fuller will likely get 45 targets (40 to 50)

Ameer and Bell combined for 65 targets. That is 470 targets. Others makes that about 500.

Ebron 100 targets. For 600.

I kind of think it will be Tate with 140 Ebron 120 Riddick and Jones get about 100 would be the main difference. I don't expect a 3rd WR to be involved more than Moore was, because I think Riddick is playing that role for the most part.

I could see either scenario happening. Or perhaps the pie being cut up a few other ways. I think Jones may take some time acclimating to the offense. But maybe not. I was reading some stuff about how frequently Stafford threw short last season, but players were good at YAC. Jim Bob Cooter basically saying that is what they want to do. 

I have read and somewhat agree with Jones being used as more of a deep threat, which is part of why I don't think he will have as many targets as Tate.

Are Matthew Stafford's gunslinging days behind him?

 

[massraider]

6 rounds in, and I've taken 2 RB and 2 TE.  I like this team already, be interesting to see how this plays out.  

 

[BoltBacker]

I think a big part of the disconnect is definitely your opinion of those rookies as compared to everyone else, as you said.  

Not only are Cooper and Thomas going to contribute,  they are going to eat into Austin's targets?  That's asking a lot from them. 

Yeah, I will admit to that. I think either Cooper or Thomas are capable of Jamison Crowder rookie type production. I was a Crowder fan as well and think they are similar level prospects.

I think some folks need to admit that in the Rams passing attack....

72 targets/681 yards/9.5 yards per target

87 targets/473 yards/5.4 yards per target

75 targets/481 yards/6.4 yards per target

.... there isn't really a #1 receiver in the group. Will Austin lose more targets than Britt? Maybe, but it's not as cut and dried as people are trying to make it out to be. There's a good chance a fully healthy and prepared Gurley may rush for nearly as many yards per carry as Austin produced on a per target basis. One last note, Jamison Crowder had over 600 yards receiving as a rookie... and Austin has never come close to that despite where he was drafted three years ago.

 

[Biabreakable]

Crowder played in Jay Gruden's and the offense threw the ball 555 times in 2015 while the Rams threw 473 times.

DeSean Jackson missed 7 games from the second to the 7th game of the season. This is where most of Crowders targets and production occur. 

These are obviously dissimilar situations. Kirk Cousins is a lot better than Foles/Keenum. The offense is better for the passing game in general.

Using yards/target for Austin is going to put him in a poor light because a lot of his targets are occuring near the line of scrimmage. His 8 yards after the catch led the team. That means he only had 57 air yards, or yards before the catch, which is 1.09 yards/reception at the point of the catch.

For the same reason his catch percentage is much lower than it should be at 59.8% considering how easy a lot of these throws should be to execute. Austin should be catching the ball about as frequently as a RB does, 73% because of the types of targets he gets. This is where I think Goff can really help.

eta- According to this, Austin had 2.593 efficiency rating. This is just slightly below the average mark of 2.6

 

[BroadwayG]

Just added an Austin dot at 9.08  I updated the ADP lists in the OP; upped the qualifying volume to try to thin out some of the rookie flak that was littering the tail end of the list.

 

[BoltBacker]

eta- According to this, Austin had 2.593 efficiency rating. This is just slightly below the average mark of 2.6

I think we may have finally found the middle ground where we can both agree.

 

[Borden]

Did you all get an email saying that there is going to be some kind of thing to verify your address and such?

This might be a deal breaker for me. If major companies can get hacked and IDs and credit cards stolen, I think MFL would be vulnerable to attack too. I haven't seen how much is being asked to for us to provide but if MFL10s require drivers licenses or more I think I'm out. 

 

[BroadwayG]

Yes, I got the email.  It was a decent explanation of what was going on, but they did an awful job at explaining what exactly you needed to do.  I was just mashing links for  a while until the join now opened up for me.

They already needed SS# for tax purposes to cash out above a certain $ amount last year.

 

[Borden]

Yes, I got the email.  It was a decent explanation of what was going on, but they did an awful job at explaining what exactly you needed to do.  I was just mashing links for  a while until the join now opened up for me.

They already needed SS# for tax purposes to cash out above a certain $ amount last year.

That's not an issue for me when I go 0 for 20. 

I gave up on DFS for what I'm guessing what will be the same requirements, copy of your DL and a CC.

 

[BoltBacker]

Agreed.

It's a fun hobby and all, but I am not giving out digital copies of my DL to float around on a bunch of servers out there when you have no idea what type of security they have now or in the future. I have known people that were victims of identity theft and just to play some game..... the risk is too high. A digital copy of your ID will be floating out there forever. I have been happy with MFL but there are already concerns about their expertise on the technical side of things. They could get bought tomorrow even if you do trust them today.

If this is required, I am definitely out. What a shame.

 

[BroadwayG]

From their new ToS:

"In order to claim and collect any cash prizes, all participants will be required to verify their address by submitting a W-9 tax form. MFL is not responsible or liable for participants that provide falsified or incorrect address information."

This is what I had to do to collect my winnings, it looks like they are extending it to anyone trying to collect for this year.  It makes no reference to a DL or CC, not that those can't spring up from nowhere depending on how that fantasy landscape changes because of all the DFS commercials. Those idiots.

 

[BoltBacker]

From their new ToS:

"In order to claim and collect any cash prizes, all participants will be required to verify their address by submitting a W-9 tax form. MFL is not responsible or liable for participants that provide falsified or incorrect address information."

This is what I had to do to collect my winnings, it looks like they are extending it to anyone trying to collect for this year.  It makes no reference to a DL or CC, not that those can't spring up from nowhere depending on how that fantasy landscape changes because of all the DFS commercials. Those idiots.

This isn't as bad, although changing the ToS at all after selling their product for the 2016 season for the past 5 months certainly seems shady to me and has me worried about what new changes can come out of the blue at any time.

I did't deal with this last year because my winnings fell just under the threshold(wasn't it $600?). I have no problem claiming winnings on my taxes as long as the hassle stops at that point. I guess we'll have to just hold our breath and hope another random change to the ToS isn't coming soon. You would think they would make any changes between the 2015 season and the 2016 season. 

 

[massraider]

I drew 1st pick in draft that started yesterday.  

I was pretty set on going WR-WR-WR, which i have not done yet. 

It's rough, man.  I can't imagine doing it with a late slot.  I was praying for Cooper/Cooks, and got Cooks/Hilton.

The next WRs that will go are Benjamin,  Tate,  Maclin, Landry.....with Martin and Lacy sitting there. 

Top 5 pick,  I'll do it.  After that,  you walking away from really good RB.

 

[Penguin]

From their new ToS:

"In order to claim and collect any cash prizes, all participants will be required to verify their address by submitting a W-9 tax form. MFL is not responsible or liable for participants that provide falsified or incorrect address information."

This is what I had to do to collect my winnings, it looks like they are extending it to anyone trying to collect for this year.  It makes no reference to a DL or CC, not that those can't spring up from nowhere depending on how that fantasy landscape changes because of all the DFS commercials. Those idiots.

In January I withdrew $590 (to avoid the $600 tax threshold) and left the rest in the account to pay for this year's leagues.

 

[massraider]

In January I withdrew $590 (to avoid the $600 tax threshold) and left the rest in the account to pay for this year's leagues.

That would not have occurred to me.  Nice

 

[BoltBacker]

I drew 1st pick in draft that started yesterday.  

I was pretty set on going WR-WR-WR, which i have not done yet. 

It's rough, man.  I can't imagine doing it with a late slot.  I was praying for Cooper/Cooks, and got Cooks/Hilton.

The next WRs that will go are Benjamin,  Tate,  Maclin, Landry.....with Martin and Lacy sitting there. 

Top 5 pick,  I'll do it.  After that,  you walking away from really good RB.

Yeah, I typically take 1 RB there..... but I also like the group of RB's at the 4/5 turn. It's pretty common to have Duke/Latavis Murray/Woodhead available at 4/5.... but even if you were in the rare league where RB's are going a little early if you still have Jones/Mathews/Ajayi that are locked in to some serious work loads and should get almost all the rushing TD's for their teams. 

One of the reasons I usually take at least one RB at the 2/3 turn is beacause I like the ARZ WR's at the 4/5 turn.

 

[Steeler]

Nearing the end of my first draft and I made a mistake with auto picks at the 18/19 turn (got a 3rd QB and 3rd TE) - I had the first pick in the draft.  Anyway, now I'm left with only 6 WR and only 1 D.  My initial thought is to get another D but is it egregiously bad to have only 6 WR?  The D is MINN and the WR are:  A.Brown, A. Cooper, TY Hilton, T. Smith, M. Wallace, and T. Ginn.

Dumb mistake, but what is the best option now?

 

[BoltBacker]

Nearing the end of my first draft and I made a mistake with auto picks at the 18/19 turn (got a 3rd QB and 3rd TE) - I had the first pick in the draft.  Anyway, now I'm left with only 6 WR and only 1 D.  My initial thought is to get another D but is it egregiously bad to have only 6 WR?  The D is MINN and the WR are:  A.Brown, A. Cooper, TY Hilton, T. Smith, M. Wallace, and T. Ginn.

Dumb mistake, but what is the best option now?

At least your D and WR's are pretty strong. If things break a crertain way, I have come away with drafts with 1 DEF and 6 WR so it's not the end of the world. In my experience, the D that is left will probably be safer than the WR that is left at the last pick in the draft...... but it completely depends on who you like as deep WR's. I like your group of WR's although Smith/Wallace/Ginn could be very feast or famine so I understand your concern. 

 

[Steeler]

Bridgewater, T MIN QB 229.2 6 19.01
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 313.9 9 13.01
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 314.2 11 10.12
Allen, Javorius BAL RB 132.7 8 12.12
Forsett, Justin BAL RB 122.4 8 11.01
Johnson, Duke CLE RB 155.8 13 5.01
Sims, Charles TBB RB 162.1 6 8.12
Stewart, J CAR RB (P) 162.8 7 6.12
Woodhead, D\ SDC RB (P) 229.9 11 4.12
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 348.5 8 1.01
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 208.7 10 2.12
Ginn Jr., Ted CAR WR 183.9 7 15.01
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 203.0 10 3.01
Smith, Torrey SFO WR 114.2 8 9.01
Wallace, Mike BAL WR 95.7 8 14.12
Kelce, Travis KCC TE 187.5 5 7.01
Kendricks, Lance RAM TE 52.8 8 18.12
Rodgers, Richard GBP TE 141.2 4 16.12
Falcons, ATL ATL Def 116.0 11 20.12
Vikings, MIN MIN Def 148.0 6 17.01


Anyone want to critic my first MFL10 draft?  Don't worry, I won't spam the thread with every draft but just looking for feedback on this first attempt.  I had the first pick in the draft and my first 3 picks were all WR pretty much at their ADP.  At the 4/5 turn I wanted to get ahead of the run on RBs but it never really came - anyway I got D. Johnson and D. Woodhead there which I am happy with since it's PPR.  At the 6/7 turn I got another RB (J. Stewart) and T.Kelce - so no need to go earlier with TE than the 6th it seems.  Added depth at RB and WR at 8/9.  At the 10/11 turn I was hoping to go B. Roeth AND D. Brees, but they were both selected mid to late 10th round -- ended up with Rivers and another RB (Forsett).  At 12/13 I took J. Allen locking up the BAL RB spot (for whatever that's worth -  ) and K. Cousins.  From here I added T. Ginn and M. Wallace which are the type of players I think you want to target deep in the draft like this.  Also added Bridgewater as sort of a hedge again K. Cousins having the wheels fall off (I started him in the TNF game a few years ago against the Giants when he threw 4 picks :X  ).  Added 2 more TEs and 2 D.  The 3QB and 3TE left me with only 6 WR but if they all stay healthy I should be OK at that spot.

Thoughts?

 

[brun]

Weirdness.

Just joined another league early this morning. Something was lagging, me or them, I don't know. Ended up clicking the join button twice. Got double billed and got 2 teams in the same league, picks 6 & 12. Sent in a support ticket and posted in the league chat.

 

[massraider]

Weirdness.

Just joined another league early this morning. Something was lagging, me or them, I don't know. Ended up clicking the join button twice. Got double billed and got 2 teams in the same league, picks 6 & 12. Sent in a support ticket and posted in the league chat.

For $20, you have a heck of a lot of fun in that draft.  Missed opportunity.  

 

[brun]

Just checked the league. Now have just the 6 pick. 12 pick is named Auto T and is scheduled to auto draft the whole way through. Whoever has pick 11 should thank me.

 

[BradtheAg]

Just checked the league. Now have just the 6 pick. 12 pick is named Auto T and is scheduled to auto draft the whole way through. Whoever has pick 11 should thank me.

Until Auto T wins the whole thing 

 

[brun]

Until Auto T wins the whole thing 

I suppose it's possible. I did one draft where a team never made a pick and got autodrafted the whole way. As I recall, it looked bad. Since it just followed MFL's ADP, it got the highest ranking in the recap, which I see as a negative.

 

[mrip541]

I suppose it's possible. I did one draft where a team never made a pick and got autodrafted the whole way. As I recall, it looked bad. Since it just followed MFL's ADP, it got the highest ranking in the recap, which I see as a negative.

In 2014 I won with a team I completely wrote off at draft time. I had a couple auto picks and about halfway through I pretty much gave up. I even mentioned in chat that I would be taking home last place for sure.

 

[nightmare]

Another rant about absent owners. One guy timed out on his first pick and
another guy is now on auto pick. We are in the fifth round. I haven't picked a
RB yet-3 wr's, A Rodgers and G Olsen.

 

[Touchdown There]

I'll let you guys pick this roster apart.  My first go this year in a 10.  I normally do 25 and 50's as camp news comes out later in the year.  I don't like having 3 QBs and 3 defenses, but it is really hard this early in the year to find a good pick in round 20, so just went with another D.


Player


   Bye


     Pick


 


 


Romo, Tony DAL QB (P)


7


14.04


 


Went all late risky QB's, so needed 3


Osweiler, Brock HOU QB


9


16.04


 


 


Griffin III, Robert CLE QB


13


18.04


 


 


Gurley, Todd RAM RB


8


1.09


 


BPA


Hyde, Carlos SFO RB (P)


8


4.04


 


Why do I believe in Hyde?  Likely to disappoint


Jones, Matt WAS RB


9


6.04


 


RBs getting thin


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (P)


11


9.09


 


Risky pick w his injuries and poor season 1


Aiken, Kamar BAL WR


8


11.09


 


I don't believe Steve Smith will return in proper form after an Achilles's injury at age 37, all other Baltimore WR's undervalued


Edelman, Julian NEP WR (Q)


9


3.09


 


Risk with his foot, but knew I would be targeting Hogan earlier than his ADP


Gordon, Josh CLE WR (S)


13


19.09


 


Likely a 0 all year, but went all in on a round 19 pick


Hogan, Chris NEP WR


9


12.04


 


This guy is going to surprise this year


Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)


8


7.09


 


Rook!  Expecting 800ish yards and to hold his own in PPR


Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)


6


8.04


 


Autodraft - That is what I get for missing the 8 hour window


Wallace, Mike BAL WR


8


10.04


 


See Kamar Aiken reasoning


White, Kevin CHI WR


9


5.09


 


Part of Cutler's problem last year was the White injury (+ oline)


Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE


9


2.04


 


BPA


Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE


6


13.09


 


Only wanted one other TE as I took Gronk in the 2nd


Chargers, San Diego SDC Def


11


20.04


 


 


Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def


5


15.09


 


 


Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def


8


17.09


 


 

 

[freeannyong]

Got an email last night that Virginia residents are now not allowed to join and coming soon will be the following: New York, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Missouri.

Not sure how this will impact ones that you have joined already. 

 

[nightmare]

Email states that Virginia wanted $50,000 for a "license" fee.
MFL is not going to take an operating loss just to do business in Virginia.

 

[freeannyong]

Those are all the states that have passed legislation for DFS. So probably more to come in the near future. I believe all of them have the same 50k license fee. 

 

[mrip541]

Damn. They fixed the leader board so you can't match up owners to teams. I should have kept my mouth shut.

edit - actually they didn't.

 

[Gianluca]

I drew 1st pick in draft that started yesterday.  

I was pretty set on going WR-WR-WR, which i have not done yet. 

It's rough, man.  I can't imagine doing it with a late slot.  I was praying for Cooper/Cooks, and got Cooks/Hilton.

The next WRs that will go are Benjamin,  Tate,  Maclin, Landry.....with Martin and Lacy sitting there. 

Top 5 pick,  I'll do it.  After that,  you walking away from really good RB.

I think we're in the same one. AB/Cooks/TY u have? I had 1.3 and took Leveon then Sammy then DT at 3.3. Now the long wait. 

 

[BoltBacker]

I'll let you guys pick this roster apart.  My first go this year in a 10.  I normally do 25 and 50's as camp news comes out later in the year.  I don't like having 3 QBs and 3 defenses, but it is really hard this early in the year to find a good pick in round 20, so just went with another D.


Player


   Bye


     Pick


 


 


Romo, Tony DAL QB (P)


7


14.04


 


Went all late risky QB's, so needed 3


Osweiler, Brock HOU QB


9


16.04


 


 


Griffin III, Robert CLE QB


13


18.04


 


 


Gurley, Todd RAM RB


8


1.09


 


BPA


Hyde, Carlos SFO RB (P)


8


4.04


 


Why do I believe in Hyde?  Likely to disappoint


Jones, Matt WAS RB


9


6.04


 


RBs getting thin


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (P)


11


9.09


 


Risky pick w his injuries and poor season 1


Aiken, Kamar BAL WR


8


11.09


 


I don't believe Steve Smith will return in proper form after an Achilles's injury at age 37, all other Baltimore WR's undervalued


Edelman, Julian NEP WR (Q)


9


3.09


 


Risk with his foot, but knew I would be targeting Hogan earlier than his ADP


Gordon, Josh CLE WR (S)


13


19.09


 


Likely a 0 all year, but went all in on a round 19 pick


Hogan, Chris NEP WR


9


12.04


 


This guy is going to surprise this year


Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)


8


7.09


 


Rook!  Expecting 800ish yards and to hold his own in PPR


Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)


6


8.04


 


Autodraft - That is what I get for missing the 8 hour window


Wallace, Mike BAL WR


8


10.04


 


See Kamar Aiken reasoning


White, Kevin CHI WR


9


5.09


 


Part of Cutler's problem last year was the White injury (+ oline)


Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE


9


2.04


 


BPA


Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE


6


13.09


 


Only wanted one other TE as I took Gronk in the 2nd


Chargers, San Diego SDC Def


11


20.04


 


 


Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def


5


15.09


 


 


Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def


8


17.09


 


 

Since it's a winner take all format I like the idea of rolling the dice on both RGIII and Gordon together(Although I have never done that). It may be a slim shot but if things fall just right both those guys are going to pay off in a big way for 18th/19th round draft picks. If you are third place in these things you may as well be in 11th place, so a pretty good gamble. I am risk adverse in the top half but I have no problems taking big risks late. 

As for TE, I realize you were already committed on Gronk but if I were going with only 2 TE I would stay far away from ASJ. Too risky imo and has a very real chance of blowing up completely. 

Best of luck.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'll let you guys pick this roster apart.  My first go this year in a 10.  I normally do 25 and 50's as camp news comes out later in the year.  I don't like having 3 QBs and 3 defenses, but it is really hard this early in the year to find a good pick in round 20, so just went with another D.


Player


   Bye


     Pick


 


 


Romo, Tony DAL QB (P)


7


14.04


 


Went all late risky QB's, so needed 3


Osweiler, Brock HOU QB


9


16.04


 


 


Griffin III, Robert CLE QB


13


18.04


 


 


Gurley, Todd RAM RB


8


1.09


 


BPA


Hyde, Carlos SFO RB (P)


8


4.04


 


Why do I believe in Hyde?  Likely to disappoint


Jones, Matt WAS RB


9


6.04


 


RBs getting thin


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (P)


11


9.09


 


Risky pick w his injuries and poor season 1


Aiken, Kamar BAL WR


8


11.09


 


I don't believe Steve Smith will return in proper form after an Achilles's injury at age 37, all other Baltimore WR's undervalued


Edelman, Julian NEP WR (Q)


9


3.09


 


Risk with his foot, but knew I would be targeting Hogan earlier than his ADP


Gordon, Josh CLE WR (S)


13


19.09


 


Likely a 0 all year, but went all in on a round 19 pick


Hogan, Chris NEP WR


9


12.04


 


This guy is going to surprise this year


Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)


8


7.09


 


Rook!  Expecting 800ish yards and to hold his own in PPR


Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)


6


8.04


 


Autodraft - That is what I get for missing the 8 hour window


Wallace, Mike BAL WR


8


10.04


 


See Kamar Aiken reasoning


White, Kevin CHI WR


9


5.09


 


Part of Cutler's problem last year was the White injury (+ oline)


Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE


9


2.04


 


BPA


Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE


6


13.09


 


Only wanted one other TE as I took Gronk in the 2nd


Chargers, San Diego SDC Def


11


20.04


 


 


Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def


5


15.09


 


 


Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def


8


17.09


 


 

I don't like your WR. There is a lot of risk here with all the rookie players and players who may not play. Your highest upside WR (besides Gordon who very likely will not play) is Kevin White who is basically a rookie as well.

You say you needed 3 QB I am not sure if you got one. If Dallas is going to repeat 2014 success (not going to happen but they will try) that means Romo might not have 500 pass attempts. 

Hyde could pay off with Chip Keley but you are asking yourself why do you believe in him? I wonder as well. Maybe he will have a great year, just seems like risk.

You put a lot of chips on the Pats offense that will be without Brady for some games.

In best ball format players with high upside are a bit better. So Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson ect. are better players in this format. Not sure about Mike Wallace in round 10 being value, not sure on his current ADP.

Overall there is more risk here than I would like. 

 

[Touchdown There]

As for TE, I realize you were already committed on Gronk but if I were going with only 2 TE I would stay far away from ASJ. Too risky imo and has a very real chance of blowing up completely.

Tell me more about ASJ, do you think his off-field/personality issues will affect his play this year? 

Edit - Caught up on the ASJ thread.  It does not sound like the coaches are trying to motivate him but that they flat out don't like him.  Knucklehead.  Hope he rooms with Winston and is buddy buddy with him.  If not, no trust from the coaches or the QB is a bad combo.

 

[BoltBacker]

Tell me more about ASJ, do you think his off-field/personality issues will affect his play this year? 

Edit - Caught up on the ASJ thread.  It does not sound like the coaches are trying to motivate him but that they flat out don't like him.  Knucklehead.  Hope he rooms with Winston and is buddy buddy with him.  If not, no trust from the coaches or the QB is a bad combo.

I just see him as high risk, high reward. With 2 TE's that'snot what I am looking for. He was going right around pick #100 a few months ago but now can be had after pick #150 so given the talent/opportunity I don't think he is all that bad for a team with 3-4 of them. I had expected Bell to be getting glowing reviews by now and it hasn't really materialized. If Jackson continues to fade those Winston passing stats have to go somewhere.

In winner-take-all taking risks isn't so bad so maybe I was being overly critical.

 

[Biabreakable]

ASJ has bust risk. Due to character concerns or injury.

He also has very high upside as shown by his targets per snap numbers.

That seems like a good player for best ball who can potentially give you some big weeks.

FWIW numberfire has ASJ as the 18th overall TE in 2016 with 39.receptions 535 yards 4.80 TD

In PPR leagues this would be TE 22

To give an idea of the upside available here however..

Last season ASJ had 218 snaps 39 targets.

This is .178 targets/snap

If ASJ gets 600 offensive snaps at the same target/snap rate that would be 107 targets. The upside is really high, If it mostly comes in only a few games.then even better for this format as long as you have a couple other TE to step up in the off weeks.

 

[Dan Hindery]

It is possible Quick finally emerges. That could be really good for Goff and the offense.

The Lions threw the ball 636, 604, 634 times the past 3 seasons. I expect them to throw 600 times. The Rams only 500 times. The Bengals have only been throwing about 500 times under Hue Jackson. So yes Jones is entering a higher volume offense than the one he left.

Last season Lions targets

Calvin 149

Tate 128

Riddick 99

Ebron 70 (14 games so 80 accounting for the 2 missed games) Tim Wright had 6 and 5 targets in the two games where Ebron was out.

Lance Moore 43

Ameer 38

Bell 27

Pettigrew 15

Others 19

If Tate and Jones split pretty evenly, say 130 targets each, and RIddick gets 100 still, that is 360  targets

Whoever ends up being the WR 3, TJ Jones, Roberts, Corey Fuller will likely get 45 targets (40 to 50)

Ameer and Bell combined for 65 targets. That is 470 targets. Others makes that about 500.

Ebron 100 targets. For 600.

I kind of think it will be Tate with 140 Ebron 120 Riddick and Jones get about 100 would be the main difference. I don't expect a 3rd WR to be involved more than Moore was, because I think Riddick is playing that role for the most part.

I could see either scenario happening. Or perhaps the pie being cut up a few other ways. I think Jones may take some time acclimating to the offense. But maybe not. I was reading some stuff about how frequently Stafford threw short last season, but players were good at YAC. Jim Bob Cooter basically saying that is what they want to do. 

I have read and somewhat agree with Jones being used as more of a deep threat, which is part of why I don't think he will have as many targets as Tate.

Are Matthew Stafford's gunslinging days behind him?




 

Nice breakdown. I did a lot of this type of math and trying to figure out who the targets would go to as well in doing the FBG team report for the Lions. 

Tough to say with certainty because the loss of Calvin changes a lot of things. But I think my one major area of disagreement is with Jones being used primarily as a deep threat. He was very good picking up YAC in Cincy and made many of his plays on short tosses. I think he serves both as the primary deep threat and as a guy who sees a lot of quick, short throws as well. And I don't think Ebron has made nearly enough progress to see a 50% increase to 120 targets.  So I see something like 130 each for Tate/Jones and only ~90 each for Riddick and Ebron.