Michael Turner will be a 1,000 yard back this season (1 Viewer)

[el-gato-grande]

The San Diego Chargers are the AFC's top rushing team averaging 217.5 ypg and 42.5 att/game. Yes, they played Oakland and Tennessee - two teams that have done a poor job against the run and rank statistically at the bottom of the league in that category.

But, lets look at the Chargers remaining season schedule and how their opponents rank after two contests against the run...

Nine games are against teams (Kansas City, St. Louis, Cleveland, Denver, Oakland, Buffalo, and Arizona) that rank in the bottom half of the league after two games. Wait - only a two game sample? Half of those teams (Cleveland, Buffalo, St. Louis, and Oakland) also ranked in the bottom half against the run last year.

There are tough games remaining against Baltimore (road) and Pittsburgh (@ home) after the bye and against Seattle (road) late in the season.

San Francisco is the remaining game and they currentlly rank 16th after two games.

So, the majority of the Bolts schedule are against teams that have struggled defensively out of the gate against the aspect of the offensive game at which they excel. It is a no brainer, particularly if Rivers goes through some learning pains, that the coaching staff will continue to emphasize the run with both RBs shouldering the collective load. LT could also be rested late in the season if the playoffs become a certainty.

My point with all this... I submit for your consideration that for some teams Michael Turner will continue to be a viable start most weeks. That goes for LT owners that might consider starting both backs as well as a flex option for owners who vultured him away when the LT owner fell asleep in the later rounds.

My prediction - MT sees enough action to average the necessary 62.5 ypg over the remaining 14 game schedule to reach and perhaps surpass the 1,000 yard mark with around 6-8 TDs. A nice value considering his ADP this year.

 

[BoulderBob]

I hope so, although I do not share your optimism. The Chargers will not continue to blow-out their opponents, and therefor LT will receive the 4th quarter carries that the Burner is currently receiving. I believe Turner is an elite talent at the RB position, but his 1000 yard season(s) is in the future.

 

[Otis]

Wow. I love Turner, but this is a ballsy prediction.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

Turner is an outstanding talent, but dont go that far man.

They played the Raiders and the Titans.....2 very very very very BAD teams.

When they actually have some competition, he will go back to getting his 5 touches a games to spell LT and thats all.

600-700 yards is his max. Marty doesn't want to have his stock raise even higher than it is with his contract up after this year. He wants him back next year w/o a doubt. He will give him touches to keep him happy, and thats it.

Talk to me after the Chargers actually play a team with an offense that puts points up. Then we will see what Turner's role will be. Until then put down the

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

 

[thayman]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

 

[el-gato-grande]

Turner is an outstanding talent, but dont go that far man.They played the Raiders and the Titans.....2 very very very very BAD teams.When they actually have some competition, he will go back to getting his 5 touches a games to spell LT and thats all.600-700 yards is his max. Marty doesn't want to have his stock raise even higher than it is with his contract up after this year. He wants him back next year w/o a doubt. He will give him touches to keep him happy, and thats it.Talk to me after the Chargers actually play a team with an offense that puts points up. Then we will see what Turner's role will be. Until then put down the

As its been well documented in some other Turner threads, he is a restricted free agent next year and some team will tender him. And I doubt MT wants to stay a back-up, which could factor into the mix.

 

[Synthesizer]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

Doing some quick math..... 3.5 ypc for Tomlinson and Turner if you throw out those 2 runs. I'm going to guess that most teams will be right in that range if you throw out their 2 longest runs as well.

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Yadayadayada.

 

[el-gato-grande]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

 

[thayman]

Turner is an outstanding talent, but dont go that far man.They played the Raiders and the Titans.....2 very very very very BAD teams.When they actually have some competition, he will go back to getting his 5 touches a games to spell LT and thats all.600-700 yards is his max. Marty doesn't want to have his stock raise even higher than it is with his contract up after this year. He wants him back next year w/o a doubt. He will give him touches to keep him happy, and thats it.Talk to me after the Chargers actually play a team with an offense that puts points up. Then we will see what Turner's role will be. Until then put down the

As its been well documented in some other Turner threads, he is a restricted free agent next year and some team will tender him. And I doubt MT wants to stay a back-up, which could factor into the mix.

I love Michael Turner as much as the next guy, but he's not going to get 1,000 yds (barring a LT2 injury knock on wood) and he will be with the Chargers next year. I don't think any team is going to want to give up what it will take to get him.

 

[Otis]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

I love this stuff.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'll interject the following.

SD is one team that has played Oakland and Tennessee thus making their play vs. the run tilted. Those teams won't play SD every week and that will improve their rating. The two game sample size works both ways.

This prediction is also not taking into account that LT2 might get hurt or dinged. In these scenarios the Afterburner will see more time. Of course the same could happen to Turner.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If San Diego continues to blow out teams sure. But I can't wait till they actually start playing some real competition, which they will. And then Turner will rarely see the field. Don't be so quick to think San Diego is going 14-2...I would say with Rivers in his 1st season, more likely to be around 11-5...and believe it or not Denver will be running with them for the division so I doubt they have it all locked up by November.

If they did lock it up by November however...and LT became basically a start the game then head to the bench...I would think if you had Turner already, you migth be able to trade LT to some unsuspecting owner for King's ransom and be looking real pretty heading into the playoffs...just a wild thought.

 

[Sabertooth]

If San Diego continues to blow out teams sure. But I can't wait till they actually start playing some real competition, which they will. And then Turner will rarely see the field. Don't be so quick to think San Diego is going 14-2...I would say with Rivers in his 1st season, more likely to be around 11-5...and believe it or not Denver will be running with them for the division so I doubt they have it all locked up by November.If they did lock it up by November however...and LT became basically a start the game then head to the bench...I would think if you had Turner already, you migth be able to trade LT to some unsuspecting owner for King's ransom and be looking real pretty heading into the playoffs...just a wild thought.

Rivers is in his 3rd season.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Exactly why I said "yeah, yeah, I know" as I knew that would come out.

 

[Ghost Rider]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

If you take away Joe Montana's Super Bowl wins, what did he do? I mean, really, what did he do?

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

Doing some quick math..... 3.5 ypc for Tomlinson and Turner if you throw out those 2 runs. I'm going to guess that most teams will be right in that range if you throw out their 2 longest runs as well.

Most teams longest runs per game dont tend to be 72 yard scampers either. The question here is will Turner run for 1,000. How often can we expect the Chargers to blow out teams and Turner to get a ton of carries?

 

[Michael Brown]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.ETA: Tomlinson does both better than anyone in the league, so don't take this as a knock on him. Just my $.02 on the "without this long run..." theory.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

If you take away Joe Montana's Super Bowl wins, what has he done? I mean, really, what has he done?

I know, why throw out two fluke plays like 50-75 yard runs that are going to happen every game? Knew I shouldnt have said anything in this whinebox.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If San Diego continues to blow out teams sure. But I can't wait till they actually start playing some real competition, which they will. And then Turner will rarely see the field. Don't be so quick to think San Diego is going 14-2...I would say with Rivers in his 1st season, more likely to be around 11-5...and believe it or not Denver will be running with them for the division so I doubt they have it all locked up by November.If they did lock it up by November however...and LT became basically a start the game then head to the bench...I would think if you had Turner already, you migth be able to trade LT to some unsuspecting owner for King's ransom and be looking real pretty heading into the playoffs...just a wild thought.

Rivers is in his 3rd season.

Right, excuse me Maurile sorry. 1st under Center for the whole season...he's gonna thrw a few picks...I know it's tough to swallow but hese beloved Chargers are going to lose a couple/few...love the bull thing they do when they score though..that's sweet.

 

[Sabertooth]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

If you take away Joe Montana's Super Bowl wins, what has he done? I mean, really, what has he done?

I know, why throw out two fluke plays like 50-75 yard runs that are going to happen every game? Knew I shouldnt have said anything in this whinebox.

Now go get your ####### shinebox!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

If you take away Joe Montana's Super Bowl wins, what did he do? I mean, really, what did he do?

Throw TDs and, win football games, make intelligent decisions throughout his career, bad example.

 

[el-gato-grande]

I'll interject the following.SD is one team that has played Oakland and Tennessee thus making their play vs. the run tilted. Those teams won't play SD every week and that will improve their rating. The two game sample size works both ways. This prediction is also not taking into account that LT2 might get hurt or dinged. In these scenarios the Afterburner will see more time. Of course the same could happen to Turner.

San Diego was 9th in the league in rushing last year. With LT/MT and that offensive line, I think its a relatively safe bet that they will continue to run the ball effectively. Perhaps even against teams that scheme against the run. The fact that San Diego likes to run the ball is no suprise to defensive coordinators. In terms of injury, nobody can predict that. I've stated that LT does have five hard season of wear on him and historically doesn't bode well. The same could NOT be said of Turner. But I do not like to project based on predicting injuries.

 

[Otis]

The question here is will Turner run for 1,000. How often can we expect the Chargers to blow out teams and Turner to get a ton of carries?

Here's where I think this guy could be on to something. I think the Chargers look REALLY good. If they continue to dominate, and Turner continues to run all over people, why not just give LT a rest and run Turner through the second half?It's conceiveable (though I'm certainly not banking on it).

 

[tangfoot]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

If you take away Joe Montana's Super Bowl wins, what did he do? I mean, really, what did he do?

<Yellow board>JERRY RICE is not worthy of being in the HOF</Yellow board>

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

 

[el-gato-grande]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

My prediction - MT sees enough action to average the necessary 62.5 ypg over the remaining 14 game schedule to reach and perhaps surpass the 1,000 yard mark with around 6-8 TDs.

If he averages 5 yards a carry, which is realistic, he'll have to average 13 carries a game. That's the part that may not be realistic.

 

[mojorizin]

The question here is will Turner run for 1,000. How often can we expect the Chargers to blow out teams and Turner to get a ton of carries?

Here's where I think this guy could be on to something. I think the Chargers look REALLY good. If they continue to dominate, and Turner continues to run all over people, why not just give LT a rest and run Turner through the second half?It's conceiveable (though I'm certainly not banking on it).

Its absolutely possible. But thats what it would take for Turner to hit 1,000 yards barring injuries. The guy isnt going to get there on 6 carries a game. The Chargers looked great, but it was still against the worst offensive AND defensive teams in the league. That kind of domination would require play like that of the 94 49ers, and I'm just not certain SD is at that level yet.We could always see more of Turner, if the staff really thought he could effectively spell LT in real gametime situations. 2nd Half mop-up against the worst teams in the league when you're up by 3 TDs running through a dejected defense makes a guy look like Gale Sayers. There are bucketfuls of guys that have done that.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

 

[Sheriff66]

Silly prediction IMO, if LT does not get injured for any lenght of time, 4-5 game strech, this will not happen.

I guess this will be another thread I bump later...

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

This discussion is slightly ironic in this particular context since Tomlinson is the more explosive runner of the two while Turner is probably more consistent at grinding out positive yardage. The stats may not bear that out so far since Turner has broken the longer run, but that's a consequence of small sample size.

 

[MDSkinner]

If he averages 5 yards a carry, which is realistic, he'll have to average 13 carries a game. That's the part that may not be realistic.

 

[Sheriff66]

The question here is will Turner run for 1,000. How often can we expect the Chargers to blow out teams and Turner to get a ton of carries?

Here's where I think this guy could be on to something. I think the Chargers look REALLY good. If they continue to dominate, and Turner continues to run all over people, why not just give LT a rest and run Turner through the second half?It's conceiveable (though I'm certainly not banking on it).

I'm not sold, once Rivers and that D faces some better compitition, then come and tell me about how they are going to dominate.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'm not sold, once Rivers and that D faces some better compitition, then come and tell me about how they are going to dominate.

So in about a week and a half, then?

 

[Darby Dragons]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.ETA: Tomlinson does both better than anyone in the league, so don't take this as a knock on him. Just my $.02 on the "without this long run..." theory.

The problem with the "eliminate the long run argument", particularly in this case is that it is only looking at one aspect of an entire game. Anyone that watched both games, especially the Oakland game, knew SD was running close to 100% of the time in the 2nd half. There were a lot of no gains and 1 yard gains because SD wouldn't throw the ball & Oakland knew it. Throw out all those carries and SD's ypc looks really good.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

The San Diego Chargers are the AFC's top rushing team averaging 217.5 ypg and 42.5 att/game. Yes, they played Oakland and Tennessee - two teams that have done a poor job against the run and rank statistically at the bottom of the league in that category. But, lets look at the Chargers remaining season schedule and how their opponents rank after two contests against the run...Nine games are against teams (Kansas City, St. Louis, Cleveland, Denver, Oakland, Buffalo, and Arizona) that rank in the bottom half of the league after two games. Wait - only a two game sample? Half of those teams (Cleveland, Buffalo, St. Louis, and Oakland) also ranked in the bottom half against the run last year.There are tough games remaining against Baltimore (road) and Pittsburgh (@ home) after the bye and against Seattle (road) late in the season. San Francisco is the remaining game and they currentlly rank 16th after two games.So, the majority of the Bolts schedule are against teams that have struggled defensively out of the gate against the aspect of the offensive game at which they excel. It is a no brainer, particularly if Rivers goes through some learning pains, that the coaching staff will continue to emphasize the run with both RBs shouldering the collective load. LT could also be rested late in the season if the playoffs become a certainty.My point with all this... I submit for your consideration that for some teams Michael Turner will continue to be a viable start most weeks. That goes for LT owners that might consider starting both backs as well as a flex option for owners who vultured him away when the LT owner fell asleep in the later rounds.My prediction - MT sees enough action to average the necessary 62.5 ypg over the remaining 14 game schedule to reach and perhaps surpass the 1,000 yard mark with around 6-8 TDs. A nice value considering his ADP this year.

I like the boldness of this prediction.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

This discussion is slightly ironic in this particular context since Tomlinson is the more explosive runner of the two while Turner is probably more consistent at grinding out positive yardage. The stats may not bear that out so far since Turner has broken the longer run, but that's a consequence of small sample size.

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense. Until I see him consistently facing the jaws of a fired up defense in the first and second quarter, I'll consider him with the same skepticism as every backup the board gets stars in our eyes about "Man, if only they'd let him START he'd be HUGE!" Still think the Bolts blowing everyone out and getting this guy a load of opportunities is a ways off.

 

[Michael Brown]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.ETA: Tomlinson does both better than anyone in the league, so don't take this as a knock on him. Just my $.02 on the "without this long run..." theory.

The problem with the "eliminate the long run argument", particularly in this case is that it is only looking at one aspect of an entire game. Anyone that watched both games, especially the Oakland game, knew SD was running close to 100% of the time in the 2nd half. There were a lot of no gains and 1 yard gains because SD wouldn't throw the ball & Oakland knew it. Throw out all those carries and SD's ypc looks really good.

I agree, and I wasn't specifically referring to the LT/Turner situation. I just meant these situations in general.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.ETA: Tomlinson does both better than anyone in the league, so don't take this as a knock on him. Just my $.02 on the "without this long run..." theory.

The problem with the "eliminate the long run argument", particularly in this case is that it is only looking at one aspect of an entire game. Anyone that watched both games, especially the Oakland game, knew SD was running close to 100% of the time in the 2nd half. There were a lot of no gains and 1 yard gains because SD wouldn't throw the ball & Oakland knew it. Throw out all those carries and SD's ypc looks really good.

Its all based on two games - that looked more like preseason games - regardless our arguments. This team comes out of the tunnel and this offensive line blows the Ravens and Steelers off the line and Turner sees significant time, I'm jumping on the train. Both teams are going to stack the line and make Rivers beat them. The difference is, they have the personnel do it. If Rivers is up to the challenge, even with no one to catch the ball outside of Gates and we have a special season in the making and Turner's gonna get those 1,000 yards.

 

[cstu]

Even if you know that Turner will gain 1000 yards this season, does it really matter unless you have LT? It's not going to be a situation like Tatum Bell where it's RBBC so if you decide to start him you'll have to hope that it's a blowout where LT gets taken out in the 3rd quarter.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

 

[mojorizin]

Even if you know that Turner will gain 1000 yards this season, does it really matter unless you have LT? It's not going to be a situation like Tatum Bell where it's RBBC so if you decide to start him you'll have to hope that it's a blowout where LT gets taken out in the 3rd quarter.

In situations where you are screwed with bye weeks and injury, I'd put him in there against the right opposition.

 

[cstu]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

 

[Sheriff66]

I'm not sold, once Rivers and that D faces some better compitition, then come and tell me about how they are going to dominate.

So in about a week and a half, then?

 

[mojorizin]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

Thats who I was thinking about with the second half heroics and fantasy dreams.

 

[jonessed]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

This discussion is slightly ironic in this particular context since Tomlinson is the more explosive runner of the two while Turner is probably more consistent at grinding out positive yardage. The stats may not bear that out so far since Turner has broken the longer run, but that's a consequence of small sample size.

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense. Until I see him consistently facing the jaws of a fired up defense in the first and second quarter, I'll consider him with the same skepticism as every backup the board gets stars in our eyes about "Man, if only they'd let him START he'd be HUGE!" Still think the Bolts blowing everyone out and getting this guy a load of opportunities is a ways off.

I don't think the Chargers need to blow out other teams for Turner to see a fair amount of carries. The Chargers will be running the ball a lot even in close games. The only time they might go away from it is if they get behind, but they have a solid D and I don't see them getting blown out of many games. Plus, they still use the RB in pass plays.LT has been dinged up towards the end of the last two seasons. I can't imagine Marty is lost on that. I see Turner doing more than clean-up in blowouts.

 

[mojorizin]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

This discussion is slightly ironic in this particular context since Tomlinson is the more explosive runner of the two while Turner is probably more consistent at grinding out positive yardage. The stats may not bear that out so far since Turner has broken the longer run, but that's a consequence of small sample size.

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense. Until I see him consistently facing the jaws of a fired up defense in the first and second quarter, I'll consider him with the same skepticism as every backup the board gets stars in our eyes about "Man, if only they'd let him START he'd be HUGE!" Still think the Bolts blowing everyone out and getting this guy a load of opportunities is a ways off.

I don't think the Chargers need to blow out other teams for Turner to see a fair amount of carries. The Chargers will be running the ball a lot even in close games. The only time they might go away from it is if they get behind, but they have a solid D and I don't see them getting blown out of many games. Plus, they still use the RB in pass plays.LT has been dinged up towards the end of the last two seasons. I can't imagine Marty is lost on that. I see Turner doing more than clean-up in blowouts.

Unless they wanna kill LT they darned well better. We were all screaming week one to get him outta there. Who knows, the kid could look like LJ if the line helps him out.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

Thats who I was thinking about with the second half heroics and fantasy dreams.

Here's a clip of Turner's 2005 highlights (and keep in mind that he only carried the ball 57 times, so the "highlights" comprise about a third of his carries). I think Turner has better speed than Jordan, and he breaks tackles more effectively. But watch for yourself.