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Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Michael Vick Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
4,000 pass yds, 1,000 rush yds, 42 TDs

Will easily surpass his ADP of mid to late 1st round.

Seriously, sky's the limit for him. All systems go.

Reality projections...3,500 pass, 750 rush, 24 passTD, 8 rush TD

 
No numbers for him yet. But I have an overall feeling.

Overrated, and the running makes me nervous. If you draft him, make sure you get a solid backup.

IMO, he will not out-produce guys you get in the next few rounds enough to justify 1st round.

 
Vick is a polarizing figure for obvious reasons but on that team in that offense in my mind he's the unquestioned #1 overall Qb. I think his metamorphisis last year was remarkable and caught me and most of the league and fantasy footballers by surprise. In the past, he was always a great runner but couldn't pass to save his life. Last year everything changed and he was able to become a terrific passer to go along with his superior running ability.

Vick averaged an eye popping 28 ppg in the games he wasn't injured (one game he played a half) and NEVER got fewer than 20 points while Rodgers the #2 QB averaged 21.6 ppg which is a 30% difference between the #1 and #2.

Vick certainly has injury risk due to his running but to me so does Rodgers due to his concussion issues. The only reason IMO that he wouldn't be the #1 QB off the board is due to personal dislike of him or the injury risk is too great. If he stays healthy all year there's no question in my mind he'll be the #1 overall qb.

 
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If he could somehow stay upright for 16 games, he not only would be the #1QB, but likely the #1 player in fantasy. I wouldn't criticize anyone for taking Vick in the 1st round and backing him up with a QB like Bradford later. His upside is through the roof. Projection assumes Vick plays 16 games.

3850 passing yards, 26 TD, 14Int

850 rushing yards, 8 TD

 
Michael Vick is a first round pick. Let’s just get this out there. I know that there are those FF players who have no problem with arguing that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees as first round QB’s in the past. They are the traditional pocket passers that routinely put up “safe” QB numbers. Nothing about Vick says “safe” when considering burning a first round pick. A lot of people will out-guess themselves, but Vick is a very safe pick here. People are going to hate on Vick, just to hate, and nothing to back up their opinions. Don’t listen to them.

He’s like having an extra running back on your starting roster. He’s capable of putting up RB1 stats as a bonus to QB1 stats. He’s truly amazing, and he’s found his potential in Philadelphia.

He’s going to be lighting up a scoreboard near you.

Projection:

Passing: 310/500/4000/28/7

Rushing: 130/900/11

 
Vick is a polarizing figure for obvious reasons but on that team in that offense in my mind he's the unquestioned #1 overall Qb. I think his metamorphisis last year was remarkable and caught me and most of the league and fantasy footballers by surprise. In the past, he was always a great runner but couldn't pass to save his life. Last year everything changed and he was able to become a terrific passer to go along with his superior running ability. Vick averaged an eye popping 28 ppg in the games he wasn't injured (one game he played a half) and NEVER got fewer than 20 points while Rodgers the #2 QB averaged 21.6 ppg which is a 30% difference between the #1 and #2. Vick certainly has injury risk due to his running but to me so does Rodgers due to his concussion issues. The only reason IMO that he wouldn't be the #1 QB off the board is due to personal dislike of him or the injury risk is too great. If he stays healthy all year there's no question in my mind he'll be the #1 overall qb.
I want to follow this up with a few things. Like most of you I watch a lot of football and Vick had me witnessing things I have never seen done with a football before. I literally am watching him on TV with my jaw open and not in the "dramatic" pose that many are used to seeing, I'm talking about just a dazed look of "WTF did I just see?" The precision of the passes this guy was whipping around out there was astonishing. I never condoned anything ths guy did beore entering prison howerver I think this was the best thing for him. He realized his mistakes once those bars closed and he couldn't play fooball anymore. I'm sorry to get emotional but Vick makes me emotional in the approach. I know what it's like to eff it up so bad that nobody wants much to do with you. I also feel strongly that its during these low points of life that you find what you are truly made of. I'm not a bible thumper by any stretch but Saul/Paul was always one of my favorite bible characters. I'm eager to watch him again this season, probably more than any other player in the NFL. I also understand why many folks will never root for him again and I think its OK. But that said you cannot deny what this guy did with a complete coaching staff aound him and an all out work ethic that he developed under Reid, Morningweig, and yes McNabb deserves some credit for mentoring him for a year.
 
I'm actually considering taking him with my 1st pick. Whether I'm 1 overall or 12. The numbers he put up last year were unbelievable, and the Eagles offense should be just as good this year. I do not expect him to drop off from last year.

 
If Vick is healthy, he gives you a big advantage. It is like playing a lower tier QB1 and an RB2 all in one.

 
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I expect Vick to have another monster year, but the concern here is that he will wear down again as the season goes on, because of his style, making him not as effective come fantasy football playoff time. Yes, he did well in week 15 last year (thanks to a crazy 4th quarter vs NYG), but not so much in week 16. And with those two games this year against the Jets (great defense) and Cowboys (expected to bounce back nicely), it is cause for concern. And even if you have get a good backup, no one in their right mind is gonna bench Vick in the playoffs and possibly miss out on a big week.

 
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Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.

 
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but not so much in week 16
26 pts in 4 pt passing td, 1 pt/25 yards passing, 1 pt/10 yards rushing, 6pt/rush TDNot so much? No, he didn't singlehandedly win you your championship week the way he did the week before but he was still a top QB that week.
 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well. http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K11_vickIf not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. ThanksTo sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.

 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.
Does it seem weird to you that FBG projects Vick to miss at least two games yet projects other injury-prone red flags like Gore and MJD to play 16? Why is Vick the exception to the "never predict an injury" rule?

 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.
Does it seem weird to you that FBG projects Vick to miss at least two games yet projects other injury-prone red flags like Gore and MJD to play 16? Why is Vick the exception to the "never predict an injury" rule?
He also has huge character issues, unlike the other two guys. So that might play a role.
 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.
Does it seem weird to you that FBG projects Vick to miss at least two games yet projects other injury-prone red flags like Gore and MJD to play 16? Why is Vick the exception to the "never predict an injury" rule?
MJD has missed three games in five years. Injury prone? If he's injury prone, Vick's lucky to be alive. And MJD is predicted by Henry & Wood to miss games.
 
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick
Which is why I am only projecting 10-12 points a game for the games he missed. The article says that losing 5 rushing TDs from Vick last season made him QB#4- but that is totally a bull#### comparison. If you had Vick and and were forced to start a backup those other games you got QB #1 production EVEN subtracting 5 rushing TDs. As long as you aren't playing in 14 roster spot leagues your last spot on the bench can accommodate a Chad Henne or a Vince Young this year.
 
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick
Which is why I am only projecting 10-12 points a game for the games he missed. The article says that losing 5 rushing TDs from Vick last season made him QB#4- but that is totally a bull#### comparison. If you had Vick and and were forced to start a backup those other games you got QB #1 production EVEN subtracting 5 rushing TDs. As long as you aren't playing in 14 roster spot leagues your last spot on the bench can accommodate a Chad Henne or a Vince Young this year.
Chad Henne or Vince Young are automatically going to give you QB1 production? Since when?
 
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick
Which is why I am only projecting 10-12 points a game for the games he missed. The article says that losing 5 rushing TDs from Vick last season made him QB#4- but that is totally a bull#### comparison. If you had Vick and and were forced to start a backup those other games you got QB #1 production EVEN subtracting 5 rushing TDs. As long as you aren't playing in 14 roster spot leagues your last spot on the bench can accommodate a Chad Henne or a Vince Young this year.
Chad Henne or Vince Young are automatically going to give you QB1 production? Since when?
IDK about Henne, but I'm starting to feel like the Eagles continue the reclamation projects. VY learns how to be a QB and will be able to step in and produce good numbers if Vick were to go down. I'm not expecting anything insane and even more so if he's called on sooner rather then later. Being a backup to Vick with the coaches he has will be the best thing for his career in the long term.
 
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick
Which is why I am only projecting 10-12 points a game for the games he missed. The article says that losing 5 rushing TDs from Vick last season made him QB#4- but that is totally a bull#### comparison. If you had Vick and and were forced to start a backup those other games you got QB #1 production EVEN subtracting 5 rushing TDs. As long as you aren't playing in 14 roster spot leagues your last spot on the bench can accommodate a Chad Henne or a Vince Young this year.
Chad Henne or Vince Young are automatically going to give you QB1 production? Since when?
What are you illiterate? I said give your team 10-12 points a game for those guys.
 
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick
Which is why I am only projecting 10-12 points a game for the games he missed. The article says that losing 5 rushing TDs from Vick last season made him QB#4- but that is totally a bull#### comparison. If you had Vick and and were forced to start a backup those other games you got QB #1 production EVEN subtracting 5 rushing TDs. As long as you aren't playing in 14 roster spot leagues your last spot on the bench can accommodate a Chad Henne or a Vince Young this year.
Wasn't the article saying take away the rushing TDs as to anticipate a drop off in that category? Not from missing games, but just because of historical facts that showed previous QB rushing TD totals dropping after big years?
 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.
Does it seem weird to you that FBG projects Vick to miss at least two games yet projects other injury-prone red flags like Gore and MJD to play 16? Why is Vick the exception to the "never predict an injury" rule?
He also has huge character issues, unlike the other two guys. So that might play a role.
Character issues?!?! We don't get negative points for that in my leagues.
 
I posted a bunch in the other Vick thread a week or two ago, but my 16-game projections are:

310/501, 3600 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT

115 rushes, 770 yards, 6 TD

I think he has a great shot at being QB1 this year--I have him and Rodgers neck and neck right now--but I don't view him much differently than I viewed Rodgers last year, Brees after the 5000 yard season, Brady after 2007, etc. Great numbers, but no one I'll ever draft with all the great passers available 2 rounds later. If you're a 1st round QB guy, he's a fine choice, but if you truly think he's an injury risk, I'd rather have Rodgers.

 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well.

http://sports.espn.g...=NFLDK2K11_vick

If not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. Thanks

To sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
This case is the opposite of the total fail that was the "draft vick #1 overall" piece. In other words its a total fail in the other direction. The author claims that Vick is the "#4 QB without 4-5 of those rushing TDs"- ok. But he is totally ignoring the 10-12 pts a game you should get from your backup the weeks he missed. Add those points in and he is back to #1 (and number 1 by a larger margin than just looking at total points). I don't know about you but I am planning on having a backup QB on my roster if I pick Vick.
Of course you have a backup. But that backup isn't vick and unless you're breaking new ground in the QB-QB draft strategy, he's not close. So you lose the elite points you hop[e to get with vick. And then you also lose the elite RB points you hoped to get from him too. And you're left with an ok Qb and a second tier RB and hoping that's enough to make up for not having Vick if he goes to down at the wrong time.Hoping Vick won't get hurt (rare) and hoping he can make historical points (something which people have mentioned multiple time) seems awfully risky to me with your first pick. It's the sort of thing which can break your season. Make it too? Sure. But you're hinging your season on a lot of 'maybe' and 'if only'.

Scared money don't make none, I suppose.
Does it seem weird to you that FBG projects Vick to miss at least two games yet projects other injury-prone red flags like Gore and MJD to play 16? Why is Vick the exception to the "never predict an injury" rule?
He also has huge character issues, unlike the other two guys. So that might play a role.
Character issues?!?! We don't get negative points for that in my leagues.
All I meant was the next time he screws up, he's taking a year long vacation. So there is that risk, which you don't have with MJD or Gore.
 
Not sure if we are supposed to link to other sites, but Christopher Harris broke down Vick and the risk of taking him rather well. http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K11_vickIf not supposed to do this, then mods please delete. ThanksTo sum it up, Vick's rushing and rushing TDs make the difference. Historically QBs just don't have 2 big years on the ground TD wise. There's always exceptions to the "rules" and I think Vick qualifies as that, but the arguments are interesting to read through. Vick will be breaking a lot of historic trends if he repeats/exceeds last year.
I listen to all of Chris Harris' draft prep podcasts and agree with him a majority of the time but I don't here. Comparing Vick to any running quarterback in the past seems like a futile exercise. Mike Vick's combination of speed, agility, and arm strength are unique in NFL history. Comparing Vick to himself isn't really flying for me, either. Atlanta Mike was a raw athlete with a C+ supporting cast on a run first team with a conservative coaching staff. And, in his spare time, Mike was running a dogfighting ring. Philly Mike has re-committed, is in a contract year, has weapons everywhere, plays for a coach who passes first and asks questions later. And oh yeah, he's a lot better now. He's accurate, disciplined, and smart out there. And he still runs a 4.4.The Eagles don't have much of a power running game. They'll move the ball and struggle to pound the ball over the goal line. Vick will be dropping back on a lot of 3rd and goals from the 5. He will run some of those in.He may not score 9 rushing TDs again. He'll probably score 8.Football is a game of adjustments. Last year, teams started selling out and big blitzing Vick. This season, by all accounts, a focus of the Eagles' preparation is to be ready for this. More screens, more Celek, who knows how the Eagles will go about doing this, but we know they are aware of it. Just because opponents blitz Vick more doesn't mean it will actually work.Of course Vick and the Eagles will take a lot of sacks. Every time Mike scrambles and takes a loss, it counts as a sack. He's also willing to hold the ball a little longer to try and escape and make a big play with his legs. I watched a lot of Eagles football last season and I don't remember that many big hits on Mike, really. The rib cruncher against Washington kinda sucked but it didn't look that rough in real time. Vick getting pushed out of bounds with two hands after an 18 yard scramble shouldn't really count.Injuries are a part of football and Mike isn't immune to that fact. It's not going to stop me from drafting him.3700 passing yards, 25 passing td, 11 int, 800 rushing yards, 8 rushing td. And a regular season MVP.
 
I think he raises some good points, some not-so-good...and I continue to waffle on where I think he presents value in the draft. The blitz stats are very compelling to me. Excluding Vick's missed games in the VBD equation is plain silly.

 
Any concerns about Vick losing a step? Running backs tend to hit the wall at 30. He's 31 I think right now.
He doesn't carry the ball 15X a game with 7 or 8 bone crushing tackles either...so no, I don't see his rushing ability tailing off for a couple more years.
 
Any concerns about Vick losing a step? Running backs tend to hit the wall at 30. He's 31 I think right now.
He doesn't carry the ball 15X a game with 7 or 8 bone crushing tackles either...so no, I don't see his rushing ability tailing off for a couple more years.
Sounds like a rationalization to me. He's not super human. He's going to get hit.
It's not rationalizing. QB's, even running QBs, don't take even a fifth the pounding a RB takes.He WILL tail off in his rushing ability in another year or two...but I see no reason to believe that it will happen this year. But let's say he does....if he lost 20% of his rushing yards and TDs...he'd STILL be top 3 EASILY in PPG for QB's...and still be a good first round pick assuming he doesn't misee more than a game or 2.
 
It's not rationalizing. QB's, even running QBs, don't take even a fifth the pounding a RB takes.He WILL tail off in his rushing ability in another year or two...but I see no reason to believe that it will happen this year. But let's say he does....if he lost 20% of his rushing yards and TDs...he'd STILL be top 3 EASILY in PPG for QB's...and still be a good first round pick assuming he doesn't misee more than a game or 2.
I think watching Vick accumulate (or not) rushing yards and hits and what toll either might take on him should be really interesting this year.
 
For those of you who have seen the Eagles' preseason games, and/or are Philly homers...

Is there talk of Vick trying to stay in the pocket more? Run less than he did last year? Last year he ran once for every 3.7 pass attempts. In preseason it's 1 for every 6. I'm of the mind that when mobile QBs start trying to become more of a pocket QB (either via coaching or their own personal "goals"), they lose effectiveness and hurt the offense. Every time I hear of a guy like Vince Young or Tebow or Vick saying "I want to be a pocket passer", I cringe, because the guys aren't taking advantage of their natural skills.

So I'm wondering if any locals have heard of a concerted effort for Vick to stay in the pocket more, and/or are you seeing that in the preseason games? Is he showing a hesitancy (relatively to last year and years past) to take off and run in some situations?

I'm drafting #4 and I'm 99% sure it's going Foster-Peterson-Rice. Vick, for now, sits next in my rankings, but the preseason sends up huge red flags. I think the next set of RBs are all tier 2, so the whole Vick thing is pretty critical to my draft. Wish I was sitting at 3. If Vick decides he's going to be a pocket passer and stop running, it's going to make the offense less effective than last year, IMO anyway.

One of the hardest players to project IMO. If he plays like last year he can win you your league. If he doesn't, you sacrificed an early pick and missed out on one of the few stud RBs that still exist.

 
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Any concerns about Vick losing a step? Running backs tend to hit the wall at 30. He's 31 I think right now.
RBs lose a step with age because of the severe pounding they take on almost every play, their bodies get beat up. Speed doesn't necessarily dissipate with age, see. Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn that were both still great deep threats even at advanced ages. Eventually Vick may slow down a little with his scrambling, but I think that's a few years away.
 
Any concerns about Vick losing a step? Running backs tend to hit the wall at 30. He's 31 I think right now.
He doesn't carry the ball 15X a game with 7 or 8 bone crushing tackles either...so no, I don't see his rushing ability tailing off for a couple more years.
Sounds like a rationalization to me. He's not super human. He's going to get hit.
It's not rationalizing. QB's, even running QBs, don't take even a fifth the pounding a RB takes.He WILL tail off in his rushing ability in another year or two...but I see no reason to believe that it will happen this year. But let's say he does....if he lost 20% of his rushing yards and TDs...he'd STILL be top 3 EASILY in PPG for QB's...and still be a good first round pick assuming he doesn't misee more than a game or 2.
Top 3 for QBs would not be a good 1st round pick.
 
For those of you who have seen the Eagles' preseason games, and/or are Philly homers... Is there talk of Vick trying to stay in the pocket more? Run less than he did last year? Last year he ran once for every 3.7 pass attempts. In preseason it's 1 for every 6. I'm of the mind that when mobile QBs start trying to become more of a pocket QB (either via coaching or their own personal "goals"), they lose effectiveness and hurt the offense. Every time I hear of a guy like Vince Young or Tebow or Vick saying "I want to be a pocket passer", I cringe, because the guys aren't taking advantage of their natural skills.So I'm wondering if any locals have heard of a concerted effort for Vick to stay in the pocket more, and/or are you seeing that in the preseason games? Is he showing a hesitancy (relatively to last year and years past) to take off and run in some situations?I'm drafting #4 and I'm 99% sure it's going Foster-Peterson-Rice. Vick, for now, sits next in my rankings, but the preseason sends up huge red flags. I think the next set of RBs are all tier 2, so the whole Vick thing is pretty critical to my draft. Wish I was sitting at 3. If Vick decides he's going to be a pocket passer and stop running, it's going to make the offense less effective than last year, IMO anyway.One of the hardest players to project IMO. If he plays like last year he can win you your league. If he doesn't, you sacrificed an early pick and missed out on one of the few stud RBs that still exist.
Honestly, the o-line has been horrendous...I really can not see him playing 16 games. I think I'd pass on him at 4 pretty easily and I'm a huge eagles fan.
 

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