Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Was shocked to see Moreno ranked below Miller this week. In PPR is MIller consistently in third downs?
What's the play here
What's the play here
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Miller and Moreno Week 2 and beyond Miami backfield (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
MaxThreshold
Footballguy
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They have always been slow to change their stance on players & situations. They had Miller comfortably ahead in week one & will probably keep it that way until the Dolphins show an extended pattern of how the backs will be used. My concern would be that the Dolphins are still showing Miller as the starter & if he has a hot start, who knows what kind of touches Moreno would get.
Al O'Pecia
Footballguy
Where did Dodds and Tremblay rank Miller and Moreno heading into the season? Perhaps both of them continue to be more bullish on Miller over Moreno in an attempt justify their preseason predictions. Whatever the reasoning, I agree with ricky g's post.
thatguy
Footballguy
Football Guys has always been like this. They play it safe (i.e. stick with their initial predictions in an effort to save face/be right)until it's clear that safe is no longer right. By the time they give breakout and/or surprise players their due, it's too late to do anyone who listened to them all along any good. So, listen to them on some things, but in situations like this, go with what your gut and your eyes and your rational thinking unbiased mind is telling you--because things move fast in this little hobby of ours and as such we can't always wait for confirmation from the so-called experts. Don't get me wrong, Football Guys is the best fantasy football site out there and I'm not so much bashing them as giving an honest critique on what I consider to be one of its few shortcomings--you just have to take the good with the bad, and be smart enough to know which is which.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
It's hot and humid in Miami...a committee approach makes the most NFL sense....I don't believe the coaches think Miller is the better 3rd down option....I think folks are over-reacting to Miller having a receiving TD.
Regarding Dodds having Miller ranked higher, it makes sense if you think about projecting all players and trying to maximize your accuracy for the entirety. Mixed messages having been coming out of Miami media and Miami coaching staff for some time now, including the recent "we'll go with the hot hand" drivel, so its probably premature to project Moreno as the 60% piece of the RBBC at this juncture. Now if we see the same kind of touches distribution in Week 2, I would imagine seeing website projections adjusted accordingly.
Disclaimer: I took Moreno in the subscription contest, but was not confident as I was doing it. Initial outlook looks good for Moreno to be the 60% guy for the year, but we'll see....
Tanner9919
Footballguy
you can go to fantasypros.com, and get/compare rankings based on most, if not all of the opinions of the top pundits, Dodds included..currently Moreno is 89% , Miller 11%..
Lol absolutely not! I don't care who it is that has him ranked higher than Moreno. They are wrong.
Happy to put a monetary wager on the table with anyone on the fbg staff that barring injury to either player Moreno ends up being the better back to own for fantasy this year.
Yes, but it was supposed to be improved this year with Wilfork and Mayo healthy. Give Miami some credit for a better offensive scheme than last year and the o-line coach, John Benton, is a major improvement over last year. There were nice holes for both Miller and Moreno, but Moreno has clearly been the better runner the last 2 games (including preseason game 3). He's more instinctive and breaks more tackles. Miller's only advantage is speed.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
As I wrote shortly after watching the entire game on Sunday and posting in the game thread(highly encourage you to read that thread, some decent analysis)
Miller: They wanted to start the game with him and they wanted Miller to be the lead back. And he got 1st dibs on a short field off a blocked punt to start the game. Great that he helped Miami and cashed in on the TD but make no mistake, there was nothing special about it. He was good, he did a nice job, but it wasn't what we would see coming up in the 2nd half from Moreno.
Obviously the fumble(Miller) was bad but things happen. Give Miller credit for feeding off Moreno and getting back out there. He had a 2nd TD called back and that would have created a tug of war with all owners of these two. As it is, I think clearly Moreno was used during the crunch time, when Miami was down 20-10, they turned to Moreno in the 3rd Q and he got a lot of snaps. When Miller came back in to finish the drive, it ended up stalling and perhaps he is not solely to blame but the level or energy left when Moreno hit the sidelines. That was when Miami made it 20-13 before the ensuing sack/fumble on brady the following drive.
Moreno: Just a high level of energy. He showed everyone what it means to be a big time RB. He reminded me a lot of Bradshaw in 2010 IIRC where he had his best season and was knocking people over. Moreno needs to play within himself, I thought he might wear himself out. 24 carries, no way to sugarcoat the way Miami was feeding him the ball. And as the passing game was streaky, the steady diet of Moreno in the 2nd half made it easier to set Tannehill up for the longer pass plays like the Wallace TD.
I would be happy as a Moreno owner but Miller looked better at times than he ever looked last year. The OL was blocking well, Lazor's offense is something to watch, I thought the play calling was the best I have seen in a very very long time.
Miller 11/59+4/19/TD, not sure you can bank on a receiving TD all the time. On long drives where Moreno has doen a lot of the heavy lifting, Miller could steal a few TDs that way.
Moreno 24/134/TD, nothing in the passing game but I doubt owners are crying. 24 carries is a lot, would look for him to be reduced to under 20 in the next game. Miller should prove valuable in helping to split the laod here.
Miller: They wanted to start the game with him and they wanted Miller to be the lead back. And he got 1st dibs on a short field off a blocked punt to start the game. Great that he helped Miami and cashed in on the TD but make no mistake, there was nothing special about it. He was good, he did a nice job, but it wasn't what we would see coming up in the 2nd half from Moreno.
Obviously the fumble(Miller) was bad but things happen. Give Miller credit for feeding off Moreno and getting back out there. He had a 2nd TD called back and that would have created a tug of war with all owners of these two. As it is, I think clearly Moreno was used during the crunch time, when Miami was down 20-10, they turned to Moreno in the 3rd Q and he got a lot of snaps. When Miller came back in to finish the drive, it ended up stalling and perhaps he is not solely to blame but the level or energy left when Moreno hit the sidelines. That was when Miami made it 20-13 before the ensuing sack/fumble on brady the following drive.
Moreno: Just a high level of energy. He showed everyone what it means to be a big time RB. He reminded me a lot of Bradshaw in 2010 IIRC where he had his best season and was knocking people over. Moreno needs to play within himself, I thought he might wear himself out. 24 carries, no way to sugarcoat the way Miami was feeding him the ball. And as the passing game was streaky, the steady diet of Moreno in the 2nd half made it easier to set Tannehill up for the longer pass plays like the Wallace TD.
I would be happy as a Moreno owner but Miller looked better at times than he ever looked last year. The OL was blocking well, Lazor's offense is something to watch, I thought the play calling was the best I have seen in a very very long time.
Miller 11/59+4/19/TD, not sure you can bank on a receiving TD all the time. On long drives where Moreno has doen a lot of the heavy lifting, Miller could steal a few TDs that way.
Moreno 24/134/TD, nothing in the passing game but I doubt owners are crying. 24 carries is a lot, would look for him to be reduced to under 20 in the next game. Miller should prove valuable in helping to split the laod here.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Moreno all day. He's going to be SOD if he stays healthy.
Forget rankings: If the Moreno owner offered him SU for Miller, Miller owner would accept without hesitating. Not so the other way around.
Forget rankings: If the Moreno owner offered him SU for Miller, Miller owner would accept without hesitating. Not so the other way around.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
anything to see here:
(RotoWire) Moreno (shoulder) was listed as a limited practice participant Wednesday, the Dolphins' official site reports. Analysis: We'll track Moreno's status as the week continues, but so far there has been nothing to suggest that his status for Sunday's game against the Bills is in any danger. Moreno moved past the knee issue that slowed him this summer to record 24 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown this past Sunday against the Patriots, while working in tandem with Lamar Miller, who carried 11 times for 59 yards in the contest.
(RotoWire) Moreno (shoulder) was listed as a limited practice participant Wednesday, the Dolphins' official site reports. Analysis: We'll track Moreno's status as the week continues, but so far there has been nothing to suggest that his status for Sunday's game against the Bills is in any danger. Moreno moved past the knee issue that slowed him this summer to record 24 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown this past Sunday against the Patriots, while working in tandem with Lamar Miller, who carried 11 times for 59 yards in the contest.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Would you prefer they overreact based on week 1 or stick with their initial projections?
Al O'Pecia
Footballguy
Neither.I'd prefer they adequately react to both the preseason and Week 1 which both strongly suggest that Moreno is better back going forward.
Precisely. It doesn't have to be so black and white either. That's what being a fantasy guru is all about: being able to dissect each situation and have the ability to weed out which players are for real and which ones are fools gold using evidence and rational thinking. In the Moreno/miller situation it's easy to see the writing on the wall. Just read the posts in this thread. People knew WEEKS ago that this was probably going to be the Moreno show. Week 1 just signed, sealed and delivered in expectations.
solorca
Footballguy
I watched the game today and came out impressed with both guys. I think Moreno was the better player for this game, but I could easily see Miller outproducing him in future weeks. If I was given the choice of either guy, I'd take Moreno...but I think they are both going to be solid RB2-3 level guys this year.
I'm not sure how it fell in most leagues, but my home league drafted on 8/31 and Moreno went in the 9th, compared to the 13th for Miller. I honestly didn't want either, but took Miller as he had slipped so far.
I'm not sure how it fell in most leagues, but my home league drafted on 8/31 and Moreno went in the 9th, compared to the 13th for Miller. I honestly didn't want either, but took Miller as he had slipped so far.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I'm starting both this weekend in my two RB slots in Ppr. Hoping for similar results as last week but know it could be a stretch. I drafted qb/wr/TE early and my other options at rb are of the Steven Jackson / Jeremy hill / Ahmad Bradshaw variety so I'm F'd either way, might as well ride the Miami running game until it lets me down .
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Beyond the Boxscore; let's breakdown their productivity, or lack thereof,for both player in week 1.
Touches by Quarter:
Quarter 1:
Moreno - 2
Miller - 4,1 TD
Analysis - After a blocked punt, Miami got the ball on the Pats 15. Miller ran on first and second down. His reception for a TD on third down put the Phins up 7-0. On the next two series, Moreno had two productive carries and Miller finished the end of the quarter with a run, both nothing of real note beside the first series.
Quarter 2:
Moreno - 6
Miller - 3
Analysis - No scoring for either player. Touches were 6-4 in favor of Miller when he lost a fumble at the end of a 13 yard run on his 7th touch. Moreno's touches were 3-1 after the fumble. Both players were again productive.
Quarter 3:
Moreno - 9
Miller - 4
Analysis - Moreno got the bulk of the work this quarter, essentially getting all RB touches the first 2 and a half drives. However, with 5 minutes left in the quarter and Miami driving, Moreno had his 9 touches and was replaced by Miller. *** Miller capped that 3rd drive with a rushing TD that was nullified by a holding call; FG was the result.***
Quarter 4:
Moreno - 7, 1 TD
Miller - 4
Analysis - The Phins were up to start the 4th and Moreno got the touches on their first two drives (both short). On their final drive, it was Miller who got the first 4 touches, with Moreno then coming in for the last few touches and scoring his TD.
Observations:
- Both Miller and Moreno were very productive (both 5+ YPC) when given the opportunity.
- Touches were 7-4 at the time Miller lost the fumble; for the remainder of the second quarter and into the 3rd quarter, touches were 10-2 in favor of Moreno before Miller was forgiven and the two split touches the rest of the game.
- Both backs were given goal line touches; both were successful, scoring once. Miller actually scored twice, but one TD was reversed on a penalty.
- Miller started the game and was the only one to touch the ball on the Dolphins first two series.
- Moreno got the majority of his work 1. after the Miller fumble, and 2. once the Dolphins had the lead in the 4th.
Bottom Line:
I don't think any fair conclusion can be made, other than that the coaches seemed to be honest when saying they'd ride the hot hand. IMO, had Miller not fumbled, I believe their touches would have been much closer to 50/50. Obviously, they're not going to put up 210+ combined yards and 2-3 TDs every week, but they do appear to have a much improved game, and one that could possibly produce two viable flex type starters if they continue to split touches. If one of the two clearly wins out and begins getting the majority of the touches, then we're looking at a possible RB1/2. Again though, after one regular season game, I don't think anyone can predict with confidence yet what the split will be going forward. Folks who are touting Moreno as "obviously" and "without a doubt" the better back seem to be basing that off the box score from week 1.
Touches by Quarter:
Quarter 1:
Moreno - 2
Miller - 4,1 TD
Analysis - After a blocked punt, Miami got the ball on the Pats 15. Miller ran on first and second down. His reception for a TD on third down put the Phins up 7-0. On the next two series, Moreno had two productive carries and Miller finished the end of the quarter with a run, both nothing of real note beside the first series.
Quarter 2:
Moreno - 6
Miller - 3
Analysis - No scoring for either player. Touches were 6-4 in favor of Miller when he lost a fumble at the end of a 13 yard run on his 7th touch. Moreno's touches were 3-1 after the fumble. Both players were again productive.
Quarter 3:
Moreno - 9
Miller - 4
Analysis - Moreno got the bulk of the work this quarter, essentially getting all RB touches the first 2 and a half drives. However, with 5 minutes left in the quarter and Miami driving, Moreno had his 9 touches and was replaced by Miller. *** Miller capped that 3rd drive with a rushing TD that was nullified by a holding call; FG was the result.***
Quarter 4:
Moreno - 7, 1 TD
Miller - 4
Analysis - The Phins were up to start the 4th and Moreno got the touches on their first two drives (both short). On their final drive, it was Miller who got the first 4 touches, with Moreno then coming in for the last few touches and scoring his TD.
Observations:
- Both Miller and Moreno were very productive (both 5+ YPC) when given the opportunity.
- Touches were 7-4 at the time Miller lost the fumble; for the remainder of the second quarter and into the 3rd quarter, touches were 10-2 in favor of Moreno before Miller was forgiven and the two split touches the rest of the game.
- Both backs were given goal line touches; both were successful, scoring once. Miller actually scored twice, but one TD was reversed on a penalty.
- Miller started the game and was the only one to touch the ball on the Dolphins first two series.
- Moreno got the majority of his work 1. after the Miller fumble, and 2. once the Dolphins had the lead in the 4th.
Bottom Line:
I don't think any fair conclusion can be made, other than that the coaches seemed to be honest when saying they'd ride the hot hand. IMO, had Miller not fumbled, I believe their touches would have been much closer to 50/50. Obviously, they're not going to put up 210+ combined yards and 2-3 TDs every week, but they do appear to have a much improved game, and one that could possibly produce two viable flex type starters if they continue to split touches. If one of the two clearly wins out and begins getting the majority of the touches, then we're looking at a possible RB1/2. Again though, after one regular season game, I don't think anyone can predict with confidence yet what the split will be going forward. Folks who are touting Moreno as "obviously" and "without a doubt" the better back seem to be basing that off the box score from week 1.
thatguy
Footballguy
Ryan Swope's Pro Career
Footballguy
Does this mean Miller is a must-have pickup for Week 3
ponchsox
Footballguy
MCguidance
Footballguy
Is Miller dinged up?
Does he get the lion's share?
Does he get the lion's share?
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
MIA singed D.Thomas. Doesn't really mean jack but worth noting. Miller is dinged (ankle I think) but it's not supposed to be super serious. Should we be looking at D.Williams possibly as well?
