Minimal WR Theory (1 Viewer)

[Slinger]

I remember reading Mike Anderson's (DrugRunner) Minimal WR Theory in the Shark Pool a long while back, but can't seem to find it. Does anyone have the link? I'd like to get a discussion going about it.

 

[Baracuda]

I don't have it and am not familar with the theory. What it is? Maybe someone can summarize it to start the discussion?

 

[Tick]

I don't have it and am not familar with the theory. What it is? Maybe someone can summarize it to start the discussion?

Very misunderstood theory if I recall correctly - I think the idea was to get high-quality WRs, but have very few.For example, in a league starting 3 WRs, a roster might look like:

Holt

Jackson

Burress

Branch

(and nothing else)

Don't fill out your roster with Rashaun Woods, Roscoe Parrish, and Kelley Washington. Save those roster spots for other positions.

People seem to misapply it, though - they think that they're following minimalist WR theory when they avoid WRs early and end up with a crappy group of them.

 

[EBF]

I advocate the complete opposite strategy. WR is often where you find the best value in dynasty drafts. In the MOX IV draft last year, I think I took 10 WRs and only 3 RBs. I made the playoffs, won a playoff game, and now have four of the top 18 rookie draft picks (including 1.04).

Dynasty leagues are all about value. Acquiring a bunch of scrub QBs and RBs doesn't give your team any value.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Hope the board does not mind, but here it is. 9 pages long if anyone is interested:

The Following is a collection of Posts from the Football Guys Shark Pool dealing with my?Minimal WR?  Strategy for building a Fantasy Football Team.  I?ve gathered some of my posts, along with a number of the questions that have been presented by fellow members of the Shark Pool about the system and how it works. I’ve gathered these posts together in a more organized fashion with the hopes that they are easier to understand in this format. I’ve tried to make the Collection of posts flow well together, although there my still be some jumps to work out.  The Minimal WR Fantasy Football Strategy by Drugrunner, FBG #6835  All of my work and thoughts on Fantasy Football is geared and directed towards the Dynasty League Owner, although the thoughts involved can be used and executed by all types of Leagues.  The basic Premise of the ?Minimal WR? Strategy is to forget WRs and TEs. Wideouts are a dime a dozen, every year a new super group of wideouts comes out, and people waste roster space grabbing them and sitting on them for two - three years letting them grow and develop, if they even ever do. I myself sat on the next superstar WR of the NFL named Hart Lee Dykes for about 3 years. In the league you play in, does the guy that drafted Terrel Owens still have him? Not in mine, infact, I passed on picking him up when he was available as a free agent. But the guy that Drafted JJ Stokes high in the first round of Rookie draft still has him, still waiting for the guy to develop, unable to get any value out of him. I am sure your league is the similar. It takes too long to develop a WR, let someone else strike that mythical lightening of getting the next Randy Moss. It’s never going to happen. Moss was highly touted, and drafted in the first round of the Rookie draft in every Dynasty league in existence. Never once has a virtual unknown WR come out his Rookie year, and performed at a high level. Never once.  You aren’t going to believe me, and that’s fine, work with this for a year or two, and see that I am right before you just follow blindly, there is knowledge to be gained from attempting to hold WRs. I am saying that it is a total waste to hold guys like Josh Reed or Javon Walker on your Roster unless you are positive that they have won a starting job. Otherwise, you are wasting a Roster spot. Realistically, who is going to score more this year? Josh Reed and Javon Walker or say Dyson and Hilliard? Dyson and Hilliard are going to crush thier numbers, and you can get Dyson and Hilliard for basically the same Draft picks/Trade value. In Dynasty, there are tons of Owners that overlook a guy like Dyson, to go nuts for the Josh Reeds of the game, let them have Reed, while you take Dyson for the same basic cost. Let some other guy sit on Josh Reed for 2-3 years, wasting the roster spot, hoping that the guy pays off,and then in 3 years from now, what is the most likely result? History shows us that the most likely result is that if Reed does well, he will produce about like Hilliard does, and you can have Hilliard right now for maybe even less that it would cost to get Reed. Owners are just nuts chasing WRs. Young WRs are always way too expensive.  How about the guy in your League that got Koren Robinson last year? What did he pay, or what draft selection did he waste? A top 8 pick in a Dynasty Rookie draft, I’m sure of it. Now, what does he get to do for wasting a Top 8 pick on a WR? He sat on him all last year, and if he started him, you got to hope it was on the one single week Robinson scored. This year, the guy will sit on him as well, and maybe get 8 TDs. That would be pretty high with Dilfer in there, much less Hasselbust. So, now we are two years in, and we have 8 TDs, and maybe 4 games that you could have actually started Koren because of the Matchup to show for it. On to year three, Now, let’s say that Koren actually makes it in the league. About half of the “Super” WRs from any given year don’t even make it. So, 50% of the time, you just got nothing at all to show for wasting a roster spot for two years. But lets say Koren makes it. In year 3, he scores Double digits, say 10 TDs, which is pretty damn good for any WR, and I am sure that if we go by the averages of all incoming WRs, the number I just randomly assigned to Koren are way over the top, but lets use a best case scenario.  What did you waste Roster wise to get those 10 TDs? Atleast two years of a position where you could have picked up a Dominic Rhodes, or some other player that could actually help you.  I won’t even go into what if you had used that top 8 pick on Lamont Jordan or Kevin Barlow instead of Koren Robinson.  That’s pretty realistic for what to expect for Koren Robinson. Now, some questions: Korin is/was very highly touted. How many of this years WRs are/were more touted than Korin Robinson? Certainly not Josh Reed or Javon Walker. How many of this years WRs are in a better position team and starting job wise than Koren Robinson? Certainly not Josh Reed or Javon Walker.  Let guys like Josh Reed or Javon Walker sit on some other shmo?s roster for 2-3 years, let them develop into Kevin Dyson’s, which if you look at what their odds are given historical Data of all incoming Rookie WRs, would be pretty damn good, and then trade a Rookie Draft 1st rounder to acquire them after they have developed. You would have just wasted that 1st rounder on a WR that has to sit on your roster for 2-3 years most likely anyway.  When it comes to your Roster configuration needs, you want and need 3 WRs total. 4 at the absolute most. Any more than 4 WRs in a league where you start 2 is just foolish over kill. If you start 3 WRs, you want 4 on your roster, 5 at the very most. Just make sure to not have major Bye Week issues, hopefully, none at all.  Have as Few WRs as humanly possible, and never waste the years it takes to develop your own, trade for them, or pick up hot free agents.  Use those Roster spots you used to waste on RBs and QBs. Pick up every youngpossible Future starter you can at QB. They actually will produce right away if given the starting job. So you have 5 starting QBs on your roster, do you think that can help you? Absolutely! Trade 1-2 of them for WRs or upgrades at WR after someone else wasted all the time of sitting on them for a few years.  Take all that extra Roster room, and Pick up the Back ups to every stud RB in the league. Certainly get Robert Holcombe who will be the Starter for Tennessee this year if/when Eddie George has problems. It will be Robert Holcombe and Not Skip Hicks this year BTW.  It’s too late for me to recall the RB that New Orleans just brought in to back up McCallister right now, but that guy is worth to much more on your roster this year that Josh Reed could ever possibly be to you. McCallister goes down, and most likely he will, and you now have a starting RB. Any starting RB in the League is more valuable to you over a Rookie WR that you honestly won’t start for any reason for another year or two.  Think about it, is there really anyway at all that you are going to put Josh Reed into your starting Lineup even once this year? How bad will your season have to have gotten for that to happen?  The biggest point from that “Hold as very few WRs as possible, and never hold a Young WR” tirade from above is this:  Whether you hold Young/Backup RBs, Young/Backup QBs, or Young WRs, you are going to waste a Roster spot this year.  That’s a given. The payoff from the QBs and RBs is far better. It is actually possible that you will use the QBs and RBs this year, BUT you will NEVER use the WRs this year.  2 years down the road, the QBs and RBs if they develop are always going to be more valuable at the time than the WR if he develops. What’s more Valuable right now? Tom Brady or David Terrell. Brady, and I am using a QB that was totally unknown at this time last year, and comparing him to the absolute top Young WR from this time last year.  QBs and RBs are always more valuable than WRs in the developmental game, let some other unsuspecting owner develop the WRs for you, while you get twice the value out of the RBs and QBs, and then just trade some guy that has tons of value right now that you picked up for absolutely nothing last year for the WR that you want that another Owner sat on for years.  I’d sure like to be the guy that wasn’t wasting roster space on a WR that wouldn’t possibly get into my starting Lineup last year and probably not even this year, to have been able to pick up Rhodes a few weeks before Edge went down because he had lots of space to do so.  Now that that is out of the way, there are two positions you should be directing your time and energy into. QB and RB. These are the positions where a deep sleeper can and will emerge. Just last year, Dominic Rhodes lead many a Fantasy Superbowl Squad to a nice run of wins projecting them to the championship. That is the player you want to find. Even in the deepest leagues last year, most likely no one bothered to hold Rhodes on his or her Roster behind Iron man Edge. In a deep Dynasty League this season, Rhodes is most certainly on a Roster. The current flavors of the season are also gone. In my League, I picked up Jamel White almost two years ago looking for deep Sleepers and held him since. Your league is probably the same. The guys that all the experts are talking about right now are long gone. Even guys like Brandon Bennett, now that we have all heard about the minor injury to Dillon, are gone.  The only thing out there are guys that no normal Fantasy League Owner would think twice about. It’s finding those players, and watching them become starters that Dynasty Owners revel in. Finding the next Warner or Tom Brady before the rest of the world has even heard of them. That’s what we do ****************************************** On to the next step of the strategy to use when looking for Sleepers that goes hand in hand with limiting the number of WRs on your team, and never acquiring Young WRs.  If you don’t understand the concept that I preach of never having Young WRs, and to only have the Minimum amount of WRs you possible can, please reread this thread, as it is all laid out up above.  Now, on to how to use those newly freed Roster spots the best.  What you are looking for is exclusively QBs and RBs, up above in this thread is the reasons why, so just scroll up and take a look if that seems unusual to you and doesn’t make sense. All my arguments for this are within this thread before this post.  The key is not just take any QB and RB out there, but to target the ones that actually are going to help you This year, and hopefully (If you are doing everything right)in the future. In this pattern of thought, you have already accepted that you are going to be using Roster spots that are most likely a waste this year. Before, you used those spots to hold WRs that you were never going to put into your starting Line up EVER, so you were already wasting roster spots. You are still going to waste roster spots. That can’t be helped unless you are in a two team league. There is just no way that every roster spot you have is going to be held by a stud player that you might actually start. If that is the case, Stop reading anything I have to say, as you are the undisputed God of Fantasy Football already. Enjoy that Championship Trophy.  But seriously, you are still wasting Roster spots, only now, you are wasting them in a more sound and logical manner. Holding currently non Starting QBs and RBs that have a much higher than average possibility to get on the field this year is going to pay off more than you would think. I’m not a math guy, so there isn’t going to be any number crunching to prove what I’m saying. I am however a trends guy, and I have been known to overload you with repeated occurrences that happen alot, and then logic on how to take advantage of it.  QBs you are looking for:  You are looking for Value now. (Most, infact, basically everything I say is geared to Dynasty Owners, so I will get into alot of the future as well) Over the years, Top starters always go down, and some back up comes in to replace them and puts up great numbers.  I can go on and on with examples of this in Brad Johnson in Minn, Jeff George in Minn, Todd Bouman in Minn, Warner in St Louis, Jeff Garcia in SF, the list goes on and on, it happens ever year.  Here are two examples that I have struck lightening on. One is Tom Bradylast year As it is still fresh in your minds about him, no need to get into it. The other huge payoff that I consider the best of my personal examples is when Warren Moon was playing for the Oilers, and putting up 30 TDs a year. It was back in the early 90’s, and that season I had 3 roster spots devoted to the backups of the top QBs. I picked up all  three guys for free off waivers, take a look at who they were. I had Marino’s backup, can’t remember who? Montana’s Back up, some guy named Steve Young from the USFL that failed in Tampa, and Commander Cody Carlson behind Warren Moon in Houston. That season Moon went down, Carlson came in and had a great year. Remember the season when the Bills were down in the playoffs 35-3 to the Oilers, and K-Gun Kelly brought them back to win? It was that season, and Carlson was the QB for the Oilers replacing an injured Moon. Now, that season, I finished out the year starting Carlson, and made the playoffs. In the off season, I traded Carlson away to the team that had Moon for 2 future 1st round Rookie draft selections.  Now tell me that didn’t pay off. Taking the backup to starters that could go down in High Powered Offenses is an excellent way to use those roster spots. You were going to waste them on a WR that would never play in your Line up. How different is it to waste them on a QB that will never play? Only difference is that the QB if he does play, and he actually has a chance to be in your Starting Line up unlike the WR.  That Commander Cody Carlson pick up when he was behind Moon running the Run and Shoot Offense was Huge. The other QBs I picked up that year? The guy on the Phins I just cut, can’t even remember his name, he was a total waste of a spot to me all year that never paid off. It happens. But I also held the Niner backup QB that season, and two years later, Steve Young took me to a Dynasty Fantasy Title in 1994. I would have never had the chance to have Commander Carlson take me to the playoffs, or win a Superbowl with Steve Young if I hadn’t used the concept of taking Back up QBs in high powered Offenses. I might have had two or three WRs that I never started instead.  QBs young or Old that are sitting behind great starters in great systems, that could go down, they don’t even have to be good QBs  Guys that you want to look at in exactly the same situations this year  Jamie Martin, (Although Martin just injured himself, and is out for the preseason, so don’t do it yet). Now Martin is actually a pretty bad QB, and will never be much more than a journeyman in the NFL. Doesn’t matter. Whoever is the back up to Kurt Warner is a player you should target. Remember that Martin is out for the Preseason, but all the other Backups suck as well, so he should retain the job. Watch this closely and see how it shakes out.  Tim Rattay. I have just been informed by Rustydawg in another post that the long term prospects for Tim are not as rosey as I thought they were. Still doesn’t change this season. If Garcia goes down, Rattay is an every week starter in the Niner system.  Todd Bouman. Took over for Culpepper last year, and actually had better numbers that Culpepper did when he was healthy. Pepper goes down again, and Bouman is a Fantasy Starter.  Look for High Powered Offenses where you can logically make a case that the starter could go down, and get the backups. The Owner that had Warner is most likely going to have to make a serious offer of talent to you if Warner goes down and you have the back up. Think about all the ways that will help your team this year if it happens and you are sitting on the back up.  Now some offenses you just don’t expect the starter to go down, so don’t use the roster room. Like the Colts. The back up is Brock Hoard who is actually a pretty gifted QB, and Indy is certainly a High Powered offense. Sounds like a great  move to get Hoard, right? I would suggest that Manning as a very small chance of going down, and not to waste a roster spot, but think about it for yourself, and see what you think. You could strike some serious gold if you canforesee Manning going down.  Young QBs no matter the system that are very skilled, and have a chance to start due to injury or starter breakdown this season, or next at the latest  Here, you are looking to get a Starter, and starter this year, even if his team is bad, but he has a decent chance to keep the starting job for years if he can get his hands on it. This is more for the Dynasty Owners that the redrafters. The Example above of Steve Young was a great  example. A gifted QB, who could start right away due to an injury to an ailing and older Montana, but also the perceived future starter. We all see how that worked out. Jeff Garcia just a few years ago in that some Niner system is another excellent example.  This is pretty self explanatory, but briefly, A young back up that looks to be the future could produce for you this year, and is a lock to hold for the future. Either way, you are using a roster spot that for all practical purposes is a waste this year. You expect the roster spot to be wasted. You are looking to strike gold both short and long term with this move. Hey, you could be holding Tia Streets instead.  Players to target in this category for this season:  Randy Fasani. BassNBrew wrote an excellent evaluation of Fasani in this thread at the top of the second page. Go back and read it. Basically, Randy could be the starter by mid season, and there is every expectation that he could be starting by next season. He is a talented QB and can produce in the NFL.  Cade McNown. This is a personal favorite, and actually shouldn’t really be here. You are looking for guys with a good shot at playing this year as an Ideal situation, but every once in awhile, a player is just worth looking at even though that isn’t the case. McNown is that player. Really? Cade is going to wash out of the NFL, it’s going to happen, no  matter how much I wish it wasn’t the case. But, Cade is seriously talented, and THE prefect Prototypical QB for the West Coast Offense. He could be an absolute star. Unfortunately, even if it happens, (It won’t), there is no realistic way of thinking he plays this year at all, and maybe not even by next season, and that is even if he actually is able to make it and become a star. All that said, I’m probably going to pick him up because he is a favorite of mine. It’s all about what you think, not what anyone else thinks. If you think the players situation is a good one or you just like what you see, do it.  Rob Johnson. Maybe not a sleeper right now and probably on somebody?s roster, but I suspect that Brad Johnson will be named the starter this season for Tampa, and alot of the owners holding Rob Johnson are going to give up on him and cut him (Probably to pick up a WR) When that happens, grab him, as Rob should have an excellent chance to start sometime this season, and has very good skills to be an NFL starter for years.  Todd Husak. Not really for this season, really looking at the future of the Broncos. When Todd came out in 2000, Mike Shanahan labled him “The QB of the Class”, and Tom Brady, Chris Redman, and Chad Pennington all come out that year as well. Todd is a very talented QB, and can star if given the chance. Let’s say that you don’t think Husak can be a star because he didn’t get drafted in the 1st round. I would say that Greise was a 3rd round selection for the Broncos. Say what you want about Mike Shanahan, and I have said countless things about him not to be used in Mixed company, He can draft and evaluate players for the system he runs. He has hit gold with so many late round selections that it is staggering to even think about it.  Shanahan just recently went out and traded to get Husak, and there is every reason to believe that Husak can and probably will be the future starting QB of the Broncos. Unfortunately, It’s also impossible to foresee him having even an opportunity to play this season behind Greise and Beurlien. But this is a guy to sock away for a season, and see how it shakes out. There are Tom Brady’s out there every year. You should look for them, think about possibilities, and take a few shots. This is just to get you started, and not a complete list by any account. Look at the teams, and the back ups (The guy you want might not be the second guy on the Depth Chart, don’t just stop there when looking), and find a brick of gold that you can call your own. To get you started, check out the Arizona Cardinals.  RBs you are looking for:  This is alot easier. You want RBs that have these qualities.  (1) Good Balance and Vision (2) Enough size and strength to be an every down Back, not just a positional role (3rd down Back) (3) Special Runner and Skills, makes things happen.  First, just throw out anyone 5’8” and under. Now, someone is going to come in here and tell me that without shoes Barry Sanders was 5’8”, I know it is going to happen, and I expect it. Yes, I admit with that rule, and if Barry is barefoot, I just lost out of him as a Rookie. For every single case you can give me like that, I can give you THOSANDS upon THOUSANDS of cases where the 5’8” guy never even made it past training camp. If you want to look at a 5’8” guy, Don’t. Let some other Owner hold him on his roster for the first season, while you can really watch him and decide if it’s worth it. If it is, then just trade for him later. We are looking for good odds here, not one in a million shots. Take the better odds, and win more often.  Every Year, people are going to get all starry eyed over the new class of rookies. Don’t bye into the hype. Pick and chose those exact guys with the best odds.  This year, you are looking at: (This is a list of all Rookie RBs that even Qualify. Many are not sleepers in the slightest, but I wanted to give you the list of what you should be starting with before we go further.) Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6TJ Duckett, Falcons 6’0”, 254, 4.55Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49Tony Fisher, Packers 6’1”, 226, 4.65DeShawn Foster, Panthers 6’0”, 222, 4.58Paris Gains, Not with a Team 5’11”, 230, 4.7Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53William Green, Browns 6’0”, 221, 4.63Joe Hall, Not with a Team 6’1”, 277, 4.92Ennis Haywood, Dallas 5’10”, 218, 4.74Maurcie Hicks, Bears 5’10”, 200, 4.55Cortlen Johnson, Not with a Team 5’9”, 200, 4.62Eric McCoo, Bears 5’10”, 214, 4.51Dicenzo Miller, Tampa Bay 5-10, 214, 4.8Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52Larry Ned, Raiders 5’10”, 220, 4.65Adrian Peterson, Bears 5’9”, 205, 4.65Clinton Portis, Denver 5’10”, 204, 4.43Luke Staley, Detroit 6’1”, 227, 4.55Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7Jonathan Wells, Houston 6’1”, 243, 4.7Levron Williams, Not with a Team 6’2”, 220, 4.63Antwoine Womack, New England 5’11”, 218, 4.55Travis Zachery, Not with a Team 5’11”, 197, 4.65 Now, FOR GOD’s sake, all the guys on that list are not studs in the making, don’t think they are. Many aren’t going to be anything at all without the perfect situation in the NFL. This is a list of the guys that you can possibly look at, nothing more. If a guy came out this year, and isn’t on that list, don’t waste your time, he’s not going to ever have a  chance anyway. Alot of these guys won’t have a chance either, but we need a starting point.  Save this list of players somewhere that you can refer to later. Some of these guys aren’t good sleepers or possibilities this year, but with a team change, or a change in a teams roster/depth chart, they might become a good one. Just sock this list away as possible for the future that you want to remember. Like I said, guys that we are going to rule out in the next few minutes as not being sleepers, can come back next year and be good sleepers.  Couple of Questions to answer right now  (1) What about Joe Burns out of Georgia Tech, he’s special with Good Balance and Vision? Right, he is, but at 5’8”, eliminate him.  (2) Joe Hall out of Kansas State, he weighs 277lbs, have you lost your mind? No, he could be an NFL talent if he gets his act together and his weight down. Remember that we are just identifying every possibility for later use here, not making any selections yet.  (3) What about Joshua Rue of Duquesne, (Insert player  here, ect) he’s got Size, speed, whatever....? They aren’t special, and aren’t a good gamble to produce as an NFL featured runner.  (4) Come-on, that list is huge, don’t half those guys suck? Once again, this is not a list of every guy that will be a star in the NFL, only a list of anyone with a chance from 2002 Rookies. If they are not on the list, it’s not even worth you exploring and learning about them.  And that’s just what you need to do next. In some cases, I am going to give you my thoughts on these guys chances, in others, you need to actually look for yourself. My list of the best chances could be different from yours. I am giving you a starting point in the hopes you look for yourself.  Now, start eliminating the possible Sleeper finds from our list of 2002 Rookie RBs.  First, take out the RBs not on an NFL team at the moment. But like I’ve pointed out, remember them for later. You never know when a Guy will get signed by an NFL team because of Injury to the starter and actually gain life as a Sleeper again. But for now, we can take out the following:  Paris Gains, Cortlen Johnson, Joe Hall, Levron Williams, and Travis Zachery.  Next, we want to look at all the Injured guys that we know of with no chance of even playing this year. This info is sometimes hard to find, so always be looking.  >From our list, Luke Staley and Antwoine Womack both fit the bill.  But something to remember. Both of these guys are very special runners, and will have very good opportunities to be future NFL starting RBs should they return form Injury at their old form. If you are in a Deep Roster Dynasty League, or a League where you have an IR that doesn’t count against your roster limit, you should pick up both of them and put them directly on IR for this year looking ahead for next year. Both have very good chances with the teams they are on to be the Starting RB in 2003-2004 as long as they regain their Pre-injury form.  Next, eliminate the guys that are just buried in the depth chart, with no real perceivable chance of seeing the starting job this year, or even in the next 2-3 years. That eliminates the following:  Tony Fisher, Ennis Haywood, Maurcie Hicks, Eric McCoo, Dicenzo Miller, Larry Ned,  and Adrian Peterson.  Now, I’m not saying that these guys won’t get on the field, just that as it sits right now, this minute, it not very likely at all. You don’t have unlimited roster spots, so you have to pick and choose the best situations.  Can these guys be good sleeper pick ups? Absolutely, things might change for a number of reasons. The most likely are that we look back at them a year from now, and they are in alot better spot depth chart wise either on their team now, or a new one. The other possibility is injures to existing starting RBs or Back ups.  Now that we have done that, here is what we are left with to start exploring: Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6TJ Duckett, Falcons 6’0”, 254, 4.55Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49DeShawn Foster, Panthers 6’0”, 222, 4.58Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53William Green, Browns 6’0”, 221, 4.63Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52Clinton Portis, Denver 5’10”, 204, 4.43Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7Jonathan Wells, Houston 6’1”, 243, 4.7 Next take out the guys we know are on Fantasy teams. They were drafted either in the Rookie draft, or in a start up draft, and there is just no way they are sleepers this year. Anyway, they are not sleepers we can just pick up, they will have to be traded for. That takes the following off our working list:  TJ Duckett, DeShawn Foster, William Green, Clinton Portis, and Jonathan Wells.  Now, what you are left with is a list of guys that have the ability to be a featured back in the NFL, and have a decent/respectable chance to see the field as a starter within say 2-3 years at the most, but this season as a possibility. Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7 This list of 7 Players out of every RB that came out in the 2002 Rookie class is all you should even attempt to look at. If they aren’t on this list, and they are a Rookie, don’t pick them up for this season.  Now, every new season, go through that process, and you will quickly develop your own list of the RBs to target year in and out. This was done so you can find sleepers, and not just listen and blindly accept what some expert is telling you.  Take your List of 7 Sleepers that you should research and look at, and then add it to the players that are no longer Rookies, but have the same traits, and opportunities with the teams they are on.  Those are your possible sleepers for this season.  This year, you would also include these players to your 7 guys: Dorcy Levens, EaglesMarlon Barnes, MiamiTravis Prentice, HoustonBen Gay, ColtsRobert Holcombe, TitansRondell Mealey, PackersDoug Chapman, VikingsTerry Allen, SaintsMarcel Shipp, Arizona along with your first list of: Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7 And there you have it. A list of every single possible worth while Player to consider as a Free Agent Pick up as a Sleeper for this season and beyond. 16 total Guys out of the thousands you started with  Now all you have to do is research them, and make some choices based on what you think, and pull out the top 5 RB sleepers for the 2002 season as you see it, and then pick up as many as you can with the roster spots you used to waste on WRs.  I will give you a good ranking of my top 10 sleeper prospects to pick up at RB for this season. (1) Lamar Gordon, Rams(2) Terry Allen, Saints(3) Robert Holcombe, Titans(4) Ben Gay, Colts(5) Marcel Shipp, Arizona(6) Maurice Morris, Seatle(7) Ladell Betts, Washington(8) Doug Chapman, Vikings(9) Rondell Mealey, Packers(10) Travis Prentice, Houston One thing of Note. If you believe that Thomas Jones is a total waste of flesh, and will never make it in the NFL, then move Marcel Shipp to the top of your List. I believe that Jones will be fine, so Shipp is not high on my list, but He could easily be 1st or 2nd on your list if you have no faith in Thomas Jones.  There, Finally, I thought this post would never get to the end. These are the way you find sleepers to hold on your team in the roster spots that in the past you wasted on WRs. Along with what I believe are the Sleepers you should try to get for 2002, and the process of how you go about finding them each season.  I hope this helps someone, because it turned out to be a much bigger project that I thought it was going to be when I started tonight.  Most important Key is to use the roster spots you are going to waste anyway in the most productive way. That is the key to my whole philosophy. ************************************ The biggest point from that Hold as very few WRs as possible, and never hold a Young WR tirade from above is this:  Weather you hold Young/Backup RBs, Young/Backup QBs, or Young WRs, you are going to waste a Roster spot this year.  That’s a given. The payoff from the QBs and RBs is far better. It is actually possible that you will use the QBs and RBs this year, BUT you will NEVER use the WRs this year.  2 years down the road, the QBs and RBs if they develop are always going to be more valuable at the time than the WR if he develops. What’s more Valuable right now? Tom Brady or David Terrell. Brady, and I am using a QB that was totally unknown at this time last year, and comparing him to the absolute top Young WR from this time last year.  QBs and RBs are always more valuable than WRs in the developmental game, let some other unsuspecting owner develop the WRs for you, while you get twice the value out of the RBs and QBs, and then just trade some guy that has tons of value right now that you picked up for absolutely nothing last year for the WR that you want that another Owner sat on for years.  I’d sure like to be the guy that wasn’t wasting roster space on a WR that wouldn’t possibly get into my starting Lineup last year and probably not even this year, to have been able to pick up Rhodes a few weeks before Edge went down because he had lots of space to do so. *************************************** Now Lets look at some players, mostly sleepers, that you should be targeting to fill those newly opened up Roster Spots  Here are some AFC Guys that you shouldn’t necessary pull the trigger on, but should be informed about:  RB Marlon Barnes, Miami. 5’9”, 209, 4.45 When Marlon came out in 99, he was full of promise. Sure, he was nursing a number of injuries, but he has big time NFL ability. Married with a child, which should help ground him. Flashed incredible skills while playing at Colorado. Pre injury had excellent speed, and was timed as fast as 4.25 in the 40. Quick, with a real burst. His field vision is good, but his real claim to fame is his superior balance. He has always been the type of Back that could explode through the hole take it yard with any touch of the ball. Missed the last few years with various injuries, but has been cleared with a full bill of health for 02 by the Miami Team Doctors. Ricky Williams is solidly the starter. He’s also a fruit case, and ready to be captured by guys in White Coats at a moments notice. Williams is also alittle injury prone, and could miss time. Travis Minor and Robert Edwards are also in competition for the back up job. Minor is a bigger version of Warrick Dunn at best, and Edwards is a member of the walking Wounded. Should Williams go down, and Barnes get the opportunity, Look out if the man is finally Healthy and still playing like he did, as he has serious NFL skills and Talent.  QB Josh Booty, Cleveland. 6’2”, 221, 4.48. Remember this guy? Most people don’t. Sat behind everyone and their sister last year in Seattle. As he was a well known College Star, I won’t go into his accomplishments, only to say that he came out of school way too early, and has been paying the price ever since. If something were to happen to Tim Couch long term wise, it would be Booty, not Holcombe that they continue to build the franchise around.  QB Rohan Davey 6’2”, 245, 4.9. Take Tom Brady’s leadership, and Chris Redmon’s size and strength, put them together, and form a child. What do you get? Yes, a very ugly girl, but if it’s a boy, you get Rohan Davey. Think bigger and stronger version of Ron Jawarski. Team Leadership just flows out of this guy, can take a team on his back, and take them to the promised land. Big and strong, and can make powerful throws. Problems are that (1) He is on New England, where Brady is the future as far as anyone can see. (2) Like Chris Redman and Ryan Leaf, tends to get too big, likes to eat I guess? (3) Needs to still delvelop. Has NFL skills and ability, and would be best served going to Europe for a season. For now, Damon Husrd is a decent backup to Brady, and will get the nod. But if you have unlimited roster room like these leagues with 35 players to a squad, and can hold a player that won’t produce for the 2002 season, this is a guy to look at. Give him a year to develop, and he can play in the NFL.  RB Travis Prentice Houston. I’m only putting him in here just incase no one in your Dynasty league has pulled the trigger on him yet. And if they haven’t, GET HIM. Might be worthless, but you will know in a few weeks, and you can cut him, won’t hurt you in the slightest. BUT, he was drafted by Chris Palmer to be the Running Back for the Browns, and actually held that possition until Palmer was let go. Prentice was traded to the Vikes, who gave him a few opportunities at the goal line, until he was traded to the Houston Texans. The Offensive Coridinator of the Texans? You guessed it, CHRIS PALMER. Now, I’m not saying that Prentice is going to be a stud, far from it. But let’s look at the Texan’s RBs. James Allen, long considered to be too small, and Johnathon Wells who is unproved. Prentice may not win the starting job, infact, I am betting against it, but he could very well win the Goal line job. If so, that is maybe 6-8 short goal line Scores for this season. Grab him and see what happens, it could very well pay off, and if it doesn’t, cut him in a month, you’ve lost nothing in the transaction. I am certain that he is long gone in almost every Dynasty League, but if not, GET HIM.  RB Ben Gay 6’1”, 227 I know, I know, I’ve been touting this guy for a year plus now, and everyone is just damn tired of me. But  here is where we are today. Edge or Rhodes will be the starter in Indy, and Gay will never see the light of Day. I agree with you. But just something to ponder: Edge and Rhodes have had various Injury and Legal issues this offseason, and infact, are both injured now. Behind them, you have Brian Allen, a newly drafted Rookie standing a huge 5’8”, who has a North/South running style, and no cut moves. You also have Styrone Stith, who also stands a whopping 5’8”, and failed miserably when given the starting nod to replace an injured Fred Taylor with the Jags a few years ago. Last, you have Ben Gay, the Legend, with All pro ability and skills, touted as all world in everything coming out of High School, and then hit a series of bad events in his life. He is also not bright and has made countless bad choices. Edge and Rhodes, one of them will be there, right? I’m sure of it as well. But if not, Gay is seriously the only other option, and Edge and Rhodes are both having problems. The runner for Indy will be a star. Gay is the longest of long shots, but I will have him deeply socked away on my roster, thought you might want to think about it as well?  RB Robert Holcombe 5’11”, 220 Was highly touted coming out as a Rookie. Infact, those in Fantasy Football back in 1998 will vivedly remember him coming out of Illinois. Powerful runner and fantastic Reciever, (something we really didn’t look for in RBs Fantasy wise back then). He was drafted by Saint Louis, and everyone had him competing for, if not winning the starting Job from Detox Larry (Larrence Phillips). In my League’s Rookie Draft that year, he was drafted 6th, right behind Moss, and just in front of Manning. No one razed the guy for picking him either, we all thought Holcombe would at minimum be on the field, if not win the Rams starting RB job. Next thing you know, the Rams trade an unbelievable amount to the Colts to get struggling and worn down Marshal Faulk, and history as we all know it was written. I say Unbelievable amount for Faulk, because it was more than was traded to get superstar Eric Dickerson, and Faulk was in many people’s eyes, washed up. Anyway, the past few years, Holcombe assumed the role of Full Back for the Rams, and did a fine job blocking and such. However, he is a skilled Runner, if he would just be given the chance. This year, he finally got out of St. Louis, and signed with the Titans. By almost each and every account I have been able to find, he has moved up the depth chart and is now sitting at the number 2 spot ahead of Skip Hicks, just behind Eddie George. Remember what Hicks did in Backup duty last year? If George goes down again, and most of us believe that George will go down at some point this year (Not Cracker though, who has him as a Stud this year), Holcombe becomes a very nice producer for any Fantasy squad. During that time, Holcombe will be a serious producer, warranting starting consideration over many well entrenched teams starters. He is one to get and hold a roster spot for.  RB Antwoine Womack 5’11”, 218, 4.55 Let me say first, I will be blown away if this guy makes it to the field in the 2002 season, I just can’t see it happening. That said, Here is the future Starting RB for the Patroits. It is certainly not JR Redmon, or Kevin Faulk. Both of those stiffs would have a hard time making the roster if they went to a new team where they didn’t already know the system. Ignore both of them, as they will never amount to anything as a featured runner. Faulk can be used in a third down role, but not much else. Womack, coming out of Virgina, is a better runner than Tiki Barber, and Thomas Jones, both who played before him. Lead the Atlantic Coast Conference in rushing for 2000, but missed all but the last 4 games of the 2001 campaign due to injury. Came back for the last 4 games, averaging almost 100 yards a game, before capping off the season against Penn State with 153 yards, and as many of us in the Midwest can still remember, single handily crushing Penn State’s Bowl Chances last year. Started and Stared in the Post season All-Star game, but tore his left interior cruciate ligament in the Gridiron Classic in January. Because of that injury and only playing 4 games in 2001, he was barely considered in the 2002 Rookie draft, and fell down the draft boards until finally ending up with New England. Like I said, there is basically no chance he plays this season, but if you have the roster spot to burn, and are willing to wait a year, I see Womack as the next starting RB for the Patriots once Antowain retires or is driven off.  QB Marques Tuiasosopo, Raiders I’m sure that this guy is gone, so no need to go into him, but if not, and Gannon stumbles due to Injury or Age, Tuiasosopo becomes the starter of a very powerful Offense. If someone doesn’t have him, which I am sure they do, get him, Gruden labeled Tuiasosopo the Raider QB of the Future. No idea where that now stands with Gruden gone though?  Those are the Deep Dynasty Sleepers in the AFC that I would recommend looking at, or at the least, keeping a serious eye on as the season unfolds.  here are the NFC Deep Sleepers I am tracking:  QB Chad Hutchinson, Dallas. Ask SanBoy, this guy was a huge deep sleeper last year when most of us picked him up. Don’t know if you can call him a Sleeper anymore now though? If he’s not on a team, go get him, but I am sure he’s gone. Just last year in a thread just like this one, he was about the top sleeper talked about by everyone.  Now, I know I’ve said don’t take any Young or Unproved WRs, but just for this year, take a pretty good gamble. Pick up any starting QB or WR that the RedSkins have that is available in your league as a Free Agent. I don’t care who the player is, as his talent or skill level doesn’t make any difference. For this one year, give Spurrier the benefit of a doubt, and buy into his system buy taking any starting member of his passing game you can get for free, Heck, even take a TE if he’s free. This won’t be the case next year, this is a one year deal that you should try and take advantage of if you can get some guys for free. Don’t trade for any of them though.  RB Corey Schlesinger Detroit. Now, to be honest, this isn’t going to pay off. But he’s someone you should atleast have on your list as a possibility to win the Goal Line job in Detroit. I don’t recommend that you actually get him at the moment, but you should have him written down somewhere for later possibilities. RB Rondell Mealey, Packers. Ahman Green has had problems in the past, and if they happen again, you are looking at this years version of Dominic Rhodes. I am not going to take Mealey personally only because I don’t have the room after taking guys I think will pay off at better Odds, but Mealey is certainly a guy to have if something happens to Ahman. If you have the room, get him. QB Todd Bouman, Vikes. I’m not going into Bouman as we all know who he is by now. He becomes the leader of the team with Randy Moss if Culpepper has problems. I personally don’t have any real faith in Pepper, but most people do. Last year, when Standing in for Culpepper, Bouman had better numbers than Culpepper before he was hurt. If Culpepper goes down, and I think he will at some point, Bouman becomes a QB worthy of starting in your League. Remember, that’s exactly how Brad Johnson became a Top QB in the game for a few years.  RB Minnesota Vikings. All right, this is a total sellout, but some Viking RB is going to be an excellent sleeper, and solid performer for this season. I just can’t figure out which one, maybe you can, so here are my thoughts for you to consider. Michael Bennett is not a big back, and gets banged up between the tackles, he doesn’t have the power at the goal line, and he has a history of injuries. Someone is going to either spell him, Take over for an Injury, or take over as the Goal Line back ala Leroy Hoard. Remember Leroy Hoard? As the Goal Line back of the Vikings under Denny Green, when Tice was on the staff, he scored over 30 TDs in 3 years. Someone is primed to take that role. Jim Kliensasser is the most likely candidate, but Tice has said he is moving Klieny to TE this season. Moe Williams and Doug Chapman both could take it. James Wofford stands 6 foot tall, and weighs 186 Lbs, so he is not the Goal line back, maybe the “between the 20s” guy if Bennet gets hurt, but not Goal line. My front runner at the moment is Doug Chapman, and if he was available in my League, I would pick him up and hold him. Somewhere in this mess is a brick of Gold. Can you find it? And if you can, please tell me about it.  QB Randy Fasani, Panthers. Somewhere up above in this Thread (Top of pg 2 if I remember correctly), BassNBrew posted an excellent evaluation of Fasani, along with recent playing observations. Now, if that didn’t sell you an Fasani, I’m not going to be able to here, because you can’t be sold on him. BassNBrew sold me on him, and just yesterday I picked him up for my Roster, and I will be pleased as can be when he pays off. I was already watching him, but Bass sold me on getting him.  QB Rob Johnson, TB. When the guy that has Rob Johnson just gives up and cuts him soon, you want to see if you have room for him. He is the most talented of the 3 QBs in Tampa, and given the chance might surprise. Will he set the world on fire? Yes, Maybe in Gruden’s system as the starter. If nothing else, a Starting QB has value, and he has a decent shot at starting at some point this year. Don’t trade anything for him, wait until the guy that has him right now just gives up, and Rob becomes a free Agent.  QB Josh McCown, Arizona. Don’t pick him up at the moment, but be ready to. If Plummer is finaly decided to just not be an NFL starter by the Cardinal Brass, McCown is the guy they will turn the ball over to. I think Plummer is fine, and won’t have any issues, but if you truly believe Plummer just sucks, grab McCown now. This next one, I don’t agree with, but he should be mentioned.  RB Marcel Shipp, Arizona. I believe that Thomas Jones will have a fine season, and will lock himself in as the starter. If you believe that Thomas Jones is a waste of flesh, and will never produce, and that he is destined to fail, then Marcel Shipp is the very best deep sleeper available this year. Many people are going to tell you that Josh Scoobey is the replacement, and he might be at the Goal line, but nothing more. Scoobey is a North South runner who can’t get outside. He gears down before making cuts, and loses all his power and speed. His playing speed is considerable less than his 40 speed. He Struggles to maintain his balance while making cuts. Never used in the passing game in College, and doesn’t appear to have natural soft hands of a  receiver. Scoobey is a powerful inside runner (He can bench over 400 lbs 400lbs!?!?!), short yardage guy, but will  never make it as a featured runner. A goal line job is the best he will ever be used for, certainly never a starting RB. Shipp on the other hand was used extensively at Massachusetts in the passing game. He has above average strength and balance. Stands 5’10”, and weighs 220lbs. Has traditionaly made most of his yardage after contact. Was a top RB in Division 1-AA ball, who has always been a featured runner at every level, never a role player like Scoobey.  Last year back in November, I said that long term, Lamar Gordon would be the Best Running Back out of the 2002 class. I am going to stick by that statement, when we look back a few years down the road, Gordon will be the top back still playing out of this class of Rookies (Although DeShawn Foster might yet wreck my prediction). If for some incredibly short sided reason, someone in your league doesn’t have Gordon, For God’s sake pick the man up. It would be the best move you can make all season.  QB Jamie Martin, Rams. Can’t make a deep sleeper list without including a few players. One of them is the Back up QB for the Rams, doesn’t even matter who it is. At this point it’s Martin, and to be honest, he’s not all that good. Doesn’t matter, if Warner goes down, Martin will be given the keys to drive the best Offensive Machine in the History of the NFL. If you have Warner, you better have this guy. If you can find room for him, you just have to consider picking him up.  QB Tim Rattay, Frisco. Same sitsuation as above with Martin. If Garcia goes down, Rattay becomes a stud. Only difference is that unlike Martin (Who basically is just a bad player), Rattay is skilled, and could easily become the next great Niner QB. However, Garcia is much more of a Lock to stay healthy all season, and if you are just picking up the Backups to the Stud QBs (Something that has paid off for me countless times – GB Commander Cody Carlson) then you should take Martin over Rattay. If you are looking long term at the future, then certainly Rattay over Martin.  QB Cade McNown, Niners. This is a personal favorite. But don’t pick Cade McNown up, infact, I strongly encourage you not to pick up Cade. That said, If there was ever going to be a rebound player that come back from Death to be perhaps the top QB in the game, it would be a skilled QB like Cade in a systemthat seems like it was created with him in mind allthose years ago (West Coast). Cade is the perfect West Coast QB, and has the skills to excel. The only problem is that Cade   should most likely wash out of the league as a Failure. Like I said, don’t do this, it’s a sucker bet. But if you believe in Miracles, this is the biggest possible payoff out there anywhere, PERIOD.  RB Morrice Morris, Seatle. There is just no way he is still available, but if he is, pick him up behind Alexander.  Those are some of my NFC Deep Sleepers that I am watching.  Next, I am going to exclude a number of Questions for Various FBG Shark Pool members that have been asked about the Minimal WR system: *************************************

 

[noneother]

i agree with this to the extent that only 4-5 wrs are required in a start 3... you can probly substantiate via a distribution, betting it is a very steep bell curve... I like grabbing 3 'prospects' every year in my dynasty, just to see if any emerge thru out the season..

off topic, in an contract/auction league, I have very good shot at Marvin, Chad, and Terrel all on the same roster...

 

[Slinger]

Dynasty leagues are all about value. Acquiring a bunch of scrub QBs and RBs doesn't give your team any value.

I agree with your take that it's all about value. I'll sometimes pick a WR in the 3rd round of the rookie draft without any plans on actually keeping him on my roster for a long time and then when there's reports about him doing really well in training camp I'll trade him for a player worth more than that pick in the 3rd round.I think the Minimal WR Theory advocates the fact that it's rare to find a WR that you'll start in his first 2 years in the league. Why not trade the "next great rookie WR" for a 2nd or 3rd year WR who's perceived value isn't as high or a good backup RB in the Ladell Betts, Marion Barber mode.

Like Tick mentioned, if you can you can grab 3 or 4 WR's that you know you'll start each year, maybe it's smartest to invest those extra roster spots to other positions, namely QB's and RB's.

Thanks CE for finding it.

 

[Bri]

WRs are a dime a dozen. I've seen eye to eye with drugrunner (Mike Anderson) on this topic.

Very misunderstood theory if I recall correctly - I think the idea was to get high-quality WRs, but have very few.

stuff like above always makes me

DR's good theory started very simple and folks here went overboard with it. It's had an interesting life of it's own here and at ol' yeller.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm familiar with the "know your league" theory, which is all the Minimal WR theory is.

 

[EBF]

Dynasty leagues are all about value. Acquiring a bunch of scrub QBs and RBs doesn't give your team any value.

I agree with your take that it's all about value. I'll sometimes pick a WR in the 3rd round of the rookie draft without any plans on actually keeping him on my roster for a long time and then when there's reports about him doing really well in training camp I'll trade him for a player worth more than that pick in the 3rd round.I think the Minimal WR Theory advocates the fact that it's rare to find a WR that you'll start in his first 2 years in the league. Why not trade the "next great rookie WR" for a 2nd or 3rd year WR who's perceived value isn't as high or a good backup RB in the Ladell Betts, Marion Barber mode.

Like Tick mentioned, if you can you can grab 3 or 4 WR's that you know you'll start each year, maybe it's smartest to invest those extra roster spots to other positions, namely QB's and RB's.

Thanks CE for finding it.

I think the real problem with the theory is that the vast majority of the late-round RBs and QBs that the theory advocates selecting will never amount to diddly squat. People tend to reach for RBs in dynasty leagues, but WR values can he had throughout the draft. Last year, I was able to land Terry Glenn, Kevin Curtis, and Antonio Bryant after round 10 in the same 12 team dynasty draft. That's three fringe starters acquired for almost nothing. Do you think I could've gotten three starting caliber RBs with those picks? I probably couldn't have gotten a single one.

It's always hit or miss, but I think it's a lot easier to find the next Anquan Boldin, Drew Bennett, or Steve Smith than it is to find the next Rudi Johnson or Domanick Davis. For the most part, the backup RBs who go on to earn starting roles are high-profile types who can't be had for good value (i.e. Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, even guys like Frank Gore and Ryan Moats).

In contrast, unheralded WRs often become stars/starters. Anquan Boldin, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Darrell Jackson, Drew Bennett, Nate Burleson, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Donald Driver, Rod Smith, Chris Chambers, Derrick Mason, Jimmy Smith, Antonio Bryant, Deion Branch, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Keenan McCardell, and Laveranues Coles are a few recent examples. None of these guys were first round picks in the NFL draft and I bet that they all would've been available beyond round 10 in initial dynasty drafts at one point in their careers. Can you say the same thing about most of the top RBs in the NFL?

 

[coolnerd]

For when I am avoiding real wok.

 

[DropKick]

Nice theory ... avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs.... so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

A bit long winded to state a simple concept. I actually follow a "minimal WR" philosophy to some degree. When I have a solid core of WRs, that I know I'll start week-in and week-out, I choose to use a couple extra roster spots on "project" or "depth" RBs or QBs rather than carry a 6th WR I'll never play. Of course , the position is deep enough you could always find a spot starter from free agency if necessary.

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

 

[BlueOnion]

I actually follow a "minimal WR" philosophy to some degree. When I have a solid core of WRs, that I know I'll start week-in and week-out, I choose to use a couple extra roster spots on "project" or "depth" RBs or QBs rather than carry a 6th WR I'll never play.

These are usually my thoughts as well. Guys like Tory Holt, Marvin Harrison, T.O. (usually) and Moss (while with the Vikings) in the past were blue-chip wide receivers. Some of these guys still are, but joining them are the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson.

These guys are solid 16-week starters that will out produced guys even 1-tier lower. And for the most part, there are almost no worries. Get two of these guys and you have 32 of your 34 starting spots filled for the year at wide receiver. No need to spend a lot of roster spots on backups.

However, your blue-chip running backs and quarterbacks have a significant injury risk. It actually makes sense to spent extra roster spots on these positions because these players play a high-risk position.

Simple Math;

if there are 5 blue-chip wide receivers, how many of those guys do we expect to play all 16 games? Probably all 5, but if 1 got hurt it wouldn't be a shock.

Now what about the 5 blue-chip running backs? How many of those guys do we expect to play all 16 games? If you say 5, your smoking crack. Lets say 2 or more likely 3. At this point, is it really that difficult to find who the 5 'sleeper' running backs are? If you know who the backups are for the 5 blue-chip running backs, then you are ahead of the game.

 

[DropKick]

Kudos to getting your thoughts on paper but, man, there are some BRUTAL recommendations in this piece..

"RB Antwoine Womack 5’11”, 218, 4.55 Let me say first, I will be blown away if this guy makes it to the field in the 2002 season, I just can’t see it happening. That said, Here is the future Starting RB for the Patroits. It is certainly not JR Redmon, or Kevin Faulk. Both of those stiffs would have a hard time making the roster if they went to a new team where they didn’t already know the system. Ignore both of them, as they will never amount to anything as a featured runner. Faulk can be used in a third down role, but not much else. Womack, coming out of Virgina, is a better runner than Tiki Barber, and Thomas Jones, both who played before him."

 

[BlueOnion]

I feel bad about pointing out these Nostradamas like predictions, knowing full well I have my own gems hidden deep in my own closet.

Last year back in November, I said that long term, Lamar Gordon would be the Best Running Back out of the 2002 class. I am going to stick by that statement, when we look back a few years down the road, Gordon will be the top back still playing out of this class of Rookies (Although DeShawn Foster might yet wreck my prediction).

2002 HalfbacksRank Player School Team Round Pick Grade

1. T.J. Duckett * Michigan St. Falcons 1 18 4.12

2. William Green * Boston College Browns 1 16 3.96

3. DeShaun Foster UCLA Panthers 2 34 3.88

4. Lamar Gordon North Dakota St. Rams 3 84 3.76

5. Clinton Portis * Miami (FL) Broncos 2 51 3.75

6. Luke Staley * Brigham Young Lions 7 214 3.70

7. Ladell Betts Iowa Redskins 2 56 3.69

8. Jonathan Wells Ohio St. Texans 4 99 3.65

9. Maurice Morris Oregon Seahawks 2 54 3.56

10. Brian Westbrook Villanova Eagles 3 91 3.54

11. Chester Taylor Toledo Ravens 6 207 3.47

12. Woodrow Dantzler Clemson 3.45

13. Adrian Peterson Georgia Southern Bears 6 199 3.44

14. Ennis Haywood Iowa St. 3.43

15. Josh Scobey Kansas St. Cardinals 6 185 3.42

16. Demontray Carter Troy St. 3.39

17. Damien Anderson Northwestern 3.36

18. Dameon Hunter Utah 3.35

19. Tellis Redmon * Minnesota 3.34

20. Jonathan Adams Arkansas St. 3.33

21. Ricky Williams Texas Tech 3.32

22. Tony Fisher Notre Dame 3.32

23. Leonard Henry East Carolina Dolphins 7 241 3.31

24. Ken Simonton Oregon St. 3.29

25. David Minnich Washington St. 3.28

26. Brian Allen Stanford Colts 6 204 3.26

27. Eric McCoo Penn St. 3.25

28. Emmett White Utah St. 3.25

29. Levron Williams Indiana 3.25

30. Cortlen Johnson Colorado 3.24

31. Travis Stephens Tennessee Buccaneers 4 119 3.23

32. Larry Ned San Diego St. Raiders 6 197 3.22

33. Joe Burns * Georgia Tech 3.21

34. Rocky Harvey Illinois 3.20

35. Adam Tate Utah 3.19

36. Antwoine Womack Virginia Patriots 7 237 3.18

37. Delvon Flowers Arizona St. 3.17

38. Willie Hurst Washington 3.16

39. Ray Robinson North Carolina St. 3.15

40. James Mungro Syracuse 3.14

41. Robert Gillespie Florida 3.13

42. Tom Pace Arizona St. 3.11

43. Joe Gunn Ole Miss 3.10

44. Little John Flowers Michigan St. 3.09

45. Ron Johnson Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.08

46. Dwight McKissic Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.07

47. Marcus King Northern Arizona 3.06

48. Deonce Whitaker San Jose St. 3.05

49. Jegil Dugger UAB 3.04

50. Ray Jackson Cincinnati 3.03

51. Marcus Fields California 3.03

52. Jasper Sanks Georgia 3.02

53. Dicenzo Miller Mississippi St. 3.01

54. Patrick McCall Oregon St. 3.00

55. Louis Ivory Furman 2.99

56. John Simon Louisiana Tech 2.98

57. Travis Zachery Clemson 2.96

58. Kenton Keith New Mexico St. 2.95

59. Anthony Tenner Idaho 2.93

60. Maurice Hicks North Carolina A&T 2.93

61. Marcus Glaze Bloomsburg 2.90

* Underclassman

 

[Slinger]

Nice theory ... avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs.... so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

 

[-OZ-]

Nice theory ... avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs.... so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Note to self: draft studs, avoid busts.

Damn, I knew I was doing something wrong.

 

[Slinger]

Well, yeah.

 

[BassNBrew]

Nice theory ...  avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs....  so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Like Rogers and Terrell.

 

[Slinger]

Who in their right mind thought Terrell was going to be a stud?

 

[BassNBrew]

Who in their right mind thought Terrell was going to be a stud?

The Bills new coach???

 

[The Reverend]

 

[cracKer]

Who in their right mind thought Terrell was going to be a stud?

Are you joking?

 

[Slinger]

Who in their right mind thought Terrell was going to be a stud?

Are you joking?

Nope. Never had him on my team or had any grave desire to do so. I'm not trying to make it out like I don't ever make poor decisions in FF, I do, but not in this case.

 

[DropKick]

Nice theory ...  avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs....  so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Like Rogers and Terrell.

Yes, even "blue chip" guys bust. So? Guys at every position bust. Let's put in this way. Rookie draft in a dynasty league (any given year)... you hold the #6 pick... The top 4 backs and a blue chip QB are off the board. Who do you take? The blue chip WR or some 4th string RB out of butt-munch, South Dakota?

The article in question talks about sleepers so deep you would need very large rosters to even consider. The thought of passing on a potential stud WR to take some podunk RB is ludicrous. Take a shot on sleepers? Sure, but not in the first round. Where is the value in that?

 

[BassNBrew]

Nice theory ...  avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs....  so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Like Rogers and Terrell.

Yes, even "blue chip" guys bust. So? Guys at every position bust. Let's put in this way. Rookie draft in a dynasty league (any given year)... you hold the #6 pick... The top 4 backs and a blue chip QB are off the board. Who do you take? The blue chip WR or some 4th string RB out of butt-munch, South Dakota?

The article in question talks about sleepers so deep you would need very large rosters to even consider. The thought of passing on a potential stud WR to take some podunk RB is ludicrous. Take a shot on sleepers? Sure, but not in the first round. Where is the value in that?

[b]Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.[/b]

 

[Z-Dog]

Nice theory ... avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs.... so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Note to self: draft studs, avoid busts.

Damn, I knew I was doing something wrong.

hehI think the theory says:

1) Only a handul (about 5-7) WRs are significantly more productive than their fellow WRs. After the first few, the difference between the next 40ish is no bigger than about 2-3 ppg.

2) It is extremely difficult to predict which WRs will break into the top group.

3) Rookie WRs tend not to be productive, and a single year is often insufficient to accurately evaluate long-term value.

Given the above, it doesn't make sense to rely on rookie WRs or spend high picks on rookie WRs. Rather, dynasty players should rely on cheap veterans or should secure the services of established stars at WR.

If you picks fourth, and QB1, and RB1-3 are off the board, this theory says TRADE DOWN - let someone else get WR1, you'll trade down and select TE1, or QB2, or even RB4.

 

[coolnerd]

Nice theory ...  avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs....  so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Note to self: draft studs, avoid busts.

Damn, I knew I was doing something wrong.

hehI think the theory says:

1) Only a handul (about 5-7) WRs are significantly more productive than their fellow WRs. After the first few, the difference between the next 40ish is no bigger than about 2-3 ppg.

2) It is extremely difficult to predict which WRs will break into the top group.

3) Rookie WRs tend not to be productive, and a single year is often insufficient to accurately evaluate long-term value.

Given the above, it doesn't make sense to rely on rookie WRs or spend high picks on rookie WRs. Rather, dynasty players should rely on cheap veterans or should secure the services of established stars at WR.

If you picks fourth, and QB1, and RB1-3 are off the board, this theory says TRADE DOWN - let someone else get WR1, you'll trade down and select TE1, or QB2, or even RB4.

The question then becomes the one NFL teams ask themselves (say Houston or NO) even if I really want to trade down, what do I do if if there is NO TRADE DOWN or only UNDERVALUED tradedowns available? Do I take the less talented RB or take the riskier (by this theory) WR?

 

[Tenderknee]

I always get the business (gee, Beav) about my roster and trades, but I had a theory that I wanted to try, in attempts to build a sustainable champion for dynasty. Background: Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/St, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE). I planned on 3 RB/3 WR, but #### happens. So here's my team, and I think you'll see what I meant about wanting to be a "sustainable champion for dynasty".

QB - McNair, Simms, Rivers, McCown, Andrews, Martin

RB - Kevin Jones, Cedric Benson, RICKY WILLIAMS, Buckhalter

WR - Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Jerry Porter, Kevin Curtis, Michael Clayton

TE - Jeremy Shockey

K - Vanderjagt, Rackers

D/St - TB, PHI

The theory I am trying to prove starts with "Stud WRs are longer lasting and have a longer useful life in dynasty leagues, and accummulating them, AND their very-capable backups is a way to solidify the WR position." Next, accumulate a bunch of starting QBs with potential, and use them in a QBBC and matchup decision process. Get a top-tier TE that will score WR-like points. Solidify your K & D/St with two good options. Have 2-3 good RBs. I had hoped Ricky Williams would have been around, but with my WRs, I can still fill my starting lineup in most weeks. The final piece of the theory is that my team might suck for a while, but in a dynasty league, that is okay, once you draft a few starting RBs via the draft. I wouldn't draft the rookie RB in the best position, but the one with the most talent because I don't need him to start immediately, and I could still get another good RB pick in the following year.

The nay-sayer will say that RBs are more important, but I would say that if I have 3 top-tier WRs, then I get a sure 30 points every week out of them, which eventually leads to a consistent 100+ point/week performing team. That kind of team wins games, and that kind of team goes far in playoffs...and that kind of team wins championships. I just need every position to score 10 points a week. How many times have you gotten sub-par performances from your collective group of WRs and not score 80 points for the week. Look at the WRs I have and tell me that I shouldn't expect 30+ points almost every week from my top 3 WRs. Tell me that I shouldn't expect to score 100+ points every week with my lineup once the RBs get their starting gig solidified, which you know they will. And in the mean time, if they don't I have very capable backups for each WR position, which also serves as great injury protection should one of the main guys go down.

The last thing that makes going for top WRs a better strategy, is that they are cheaper to get and trade for. You can either trade for a prospect and hold until maturity, then never trade him away, or you can trade for the established stud and wait until next years draft to get that eventual sure starting RB. It is very hard to draft a championship team, or trade for a championship team. This is the realisitic approach for someone willing to wait a few years. consider that if everyone goes for the championship every year, then you have a lot of losers. But if you are planning for a few years down the road, your competition is always a bit behind you to that future crown. Once you are on top, and have the top players at WR, you just need to gamble on young RBs that will be future starters and constantly sort through the Free Agents.

My opinion is that Minimal WR just puts you on the same level playing field as most of the teams that might be competitive that year, while my theory of 3 Stud WRs puts you on a higher tier in the future for a long time.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

David Terrell and Charles Rogers were two of the most dominant college WRs of the past 5 years. Before his stock dropped, I believe the Browns even gave some consideration to drafting Terrell #3 overall. Regardless, the Bears had their sights set on Andre Carter that year but the 49ers traded up ahead of them to steal him. Then, the Bears got their choice between Terrell and Koren Robinson. At first, it looked like a terrible choice, although Seattle didn't get too much more out of K-Rob than Chicago did out of Terrell. Regardless, I think there were much fewer doubters than believers in Terrell when he entered the league and it's revisionist history to suggest otherwise.

 

[Z-Dog]

Nice theory ... avoid young WRS so you can focus on crappy RBs and QBs.... so now you have Cedric Cobbs instead of Larry Fitzgerald..

If, however, I'm in a position to draft a blue-chip WR prospect in the rookie draft, I won't pass on the player simply becuase he is young.

Yeah that's how I adjust the theory for my teams. I drafted Larry Fitzgerald, but I didn't draft the Fred Gibsons and Craphonso Thorpes of the world. Usually in every draft there's 2 or 3 WR's that you shouldn't turn your back on.

Note to self: draft studs, avoid busts.

Damn, I knew I was doing something wrong.

hehI think the theory says:

1) Only a handul (about 5-7) WRs are significantly more productive than their fellow WRs. After the first few, the difference between the next 40ish is no bigger than about 2-3 ppg.

2) It is extremely difficult to predict which WRs will break into the top group.

3) Rookie WRs tend not to be productive, and a single year is often insufficient to accurately evaluate long-term value.

Given the above, it doesn't make sense to rely on rookie WRs or spend high picks on rookie WRs. Rather, dynasty players should rely on cheap veterans or should secure the services of established stars at WR.

If you picks fourth, and QB1, and RB1-3 are off the board, this theory says TRADE DOWN - let someone else get WR1, you'll trade down and select TE1, or QB2, or even RB4.

The question then becomes the one NFL teams ask themselves (say Houston or NO) even if I really want to trade down, what do I do if if there is NO TRADE DOWN or only UNDERVALUED tradedowns available? Do I take the less talented RB or take the riskier (by this theory) WR?

I take the player valued more highly by my league, with the full intention of eventually cashing him in via trade. As for Tenderknee, it seems like your comments apply to starting a new dynasty team, not managing an ongoing one. And I have always been against the strategy of tanking a few early dynasty seasons in the name of the future.

 

[-OZ-]

I take the player valued more highly by my league, with the full intention of eventually cashing him in via trade.

Yep. Even if you keep the player, just knowing you have something others want can be an advantage.A few of us here happen to play in a league where between 48 and 80 WRs start each week, while only a maximum of 32 RBs can. In this format, WRs have become the golden child. Not to say they'd be taken over a top RB, but when compared to other leagues, WRs are much more valuable. Nobody who knows what they're doing in that league will take a RB they rank around 25 over a WR they rank in the top 10.

The Staff dynasty rankings look a whole lot different than the values will in that league, for example, Droughns is listed above Roy Williams and Chambers for the staff, but in this league, Roy netted Lamont Jordan in a trade, which was in the opinions of many, fair.

All this to simply emphasize - KNOW YOUR LEAGUE, draft accordingly.

 

[DropKick]

David Terrell and Charles Rogers were two of the most dominant college WRs of the past 5 years. Before his stock dropped, I believe the Browns even gave some consideration to drafting Terrell #3 overall. Regardless, the Bears had their sights set on Andre Carter that year but the 49ers traded up ahead of them to steal him. Then, the Bears got their choice between Terrell and Koren Robinson. At first, it looked like a terrible choice, although Seattle didn't get too much more out of K-Rob than Chicago did out of Terrell. Regardless, I think there were much fewer doubters than believers in Terrell when he entered the league and it's revisionist history to suggest otherwise.

And I would have taken Terrell had he dropped to me late in the first round. Not sure exactly what pick I had that year but it wasn't high enough to get a highly touted back.And he would have busted. But, you would never touch a Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald type in a dynasty format if you didn't get them early.

And sure there are other successful, lower profile guys who have become very productive such as Boldin and Steve Smith - but again difficult to obtain once they show something in a dynasty (or deep keeper) league.

Part of the logic is letting the draft come to you and getting the best available player. Picks #6, #7, #8 in a rookie draft are very conducive to taking these guys with a very high ceiling.

 

[Miro Z]

I posted the following thoughts on a league noticeboard after our initial dynasty draft.

I have to confess, I was always a stud RB guy. Always used to draft as many top RBs as I could. WRs and QBs could wait. You could always pick them up in later rounds. I once started a draft by drafting RBs in rounds 1-5. It worked too, I was able to trade a couple of them later for top WRs. It was all about the value.But something's changed over the last couple of years. I guess I've observed that elite WRs have a very long shelf-life. Once you get a great one, they stay great for a very long time. Having that position locked up on your roster gives you great stability.Now, don't get me wrong, I still love RBs. But if it's a choice between an elite WR and a good but not great RB with some major league question marks, I'd take the elite WR now. I am a semi-convert to stud WR theory.In the first round I took the best available RB at 1.7, Clinton Portis.But at 2.6 I opted for Torry Holt over some of the available RBs. He has been incredibly productive in his relatively short career and I think good times lie ahead in Linehan's offense.Similarly at 3.6 I took Anquan Boldin at 3.6. He has enormous talent, is very young and is a very productive passing offense.I did go back to RBs in rounds 4 and 5. I reached a little to take Frank Gore in the fourth, just because I think he has All-World talent, and Dillon was good value in the 5th, even though he is getting old. After a QB in the 6th (Marc Bulger, who I think could put up very big numbers this year), it was on to a new part of my draft strategy - stud LBs. If you can get top 5 guys at LB they can really help your team because LBs are the highest scoring position of IDPs. I tried to get 3 top 5 ones and nearly succeeded. Donnie Edwards was the #2 LB in Zealots scoring and London Fletcher was the #4. I took them in the 7th and 8th rounds. I then added Zach Thomas in the 10th who was the #7 LB (but missed a couple games and would have been #1 overall had he played those).I took Jason Taylor in the 9th just because there was such a big disparity between him and the other DLs. He scored 143 points last year, more than 20 points more than the nearest one.I took my first TE, Randy McMichael, in the 11th. I would have liked a top 5 TE but McMichael isn't far off those guys (Gates excepted) and Ben Troupe 3 rounds later in the 14th has enormous potential.Having done the stud WR and stud LB thing, the next phase of my strategy was RB hoarding. I was already a little weak at RB and needed to take a bunch of major gambles. Those were:Mike Anderson in the 12thTravis Henry in the 13thRicky Williams in the 18thPriest Holmes in the 19thLee Suggs in the 20thDuce Staley in the 22thNow, this strategy has provoked both positive and negative comments. The point is that these picks were all sufficiently low enough that I only need one of them to come off nicely for them all to have been worth it.Consider if:* Mike Anderson is resigned by the Broncos and puts up solid numbers again, or gets a lot of playing time with another team, such as Philadelphia or Carolina OR* Chris Brown gets hurt and Travis Henry shows the ability that made him a multiple 1000 yard rushing guy OR* Ricky Williams wins his appeal (not that unlikely apparently) OR* Priest doesn't retire and gets some playing time in KC, or even ends up on another team OR* Lee Suggs shows the great potential he has and outperforms Droughns in training camp OR* Staley gets the Bettis job in PittsburghIf any of these come off, then I'll be delighted. And if none of them do, what the heck, it was worth the gamble. Because the other guys I would have picked in those slots were top DBs and DL, and the differential between top DBs/DLs and the others is not significant. Basically, I could afford to take the gamble.The rest of my draft was all about value and projects. Guys like Kurt Warner (15th round) and Mark Brunell (23rd) offer great value if not long-term potential. Warner in particular could have a big year. I was glad to see Keenan McCardell still there in the 16th because he offers nice value as my #3 WR. Similarly Charles Rogers in the 17th is a value gamble. If he can showcase his talent in Martz's offense the sky is the limit. Picks like Marty Booker (21st) and Bobby Engram (24th) weren't very exciting, but both guys are #2 WRs on their teams and are solid producers. What with bye weeks and injuries you need fill-in starters in Zealots and those guys offer that. Booker might be even a bit more than that, the way he ended the season. Vincent Jackson (26th) and Reggie Williams (27th) were project picks, they both have potential - or at least size - and Aaron Rogers (25th) gives me some much needed youth at QB.So there we go: I'd say my draft so far is a combo of:* Stud WR* Stud LB* RB hoarding* Value-based drafting

 

[Portis 26]

Bump - long live minimal WR theory!

 

[JohnnyU]

Remember this? Also, what ever happened to Drugrunner?

Statistics

Joined: 11-April 03

Profile Views: 341*

Last Seen: 21st June 2005 - 12:35 AM

 

[Twilight]

Remember this? Also, what ever happened to Drugrunner?

Statistics

Joined: 11-April 03

Profile Views: 341*

Last Seen: 21st June 2005 - 12:35 AM

Mike became staff around that time.

 

[JohnnyU]

Remember this? Also, what ever happened to Drugrunner?

Statistics

Joined: 11-April 03

Profile Views: 341*

Last Seen: 21st June 2005 - 12:35 AM

Mike became staff around that time.

Ok, thanks.

 

[Tick]

Who in their right mind thought Terrell was going to be a stud?

Are you joking?

Last Seen: 20th February 2007 - 12:02 AM

 

[bonesman]

Many are not sleepers in the slightest, but I wanted to give you the list of what you should be starting with before we go further.)

Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6

Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6

TJ Duckett, Falcons 6’0”, 254, 4.55

Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49

Tony Fisher, Packers 6’1”, 226, 4.65

DeShawn Foster, Panthers 6’0”, 222, 4.58

Paris Gains, Not with a Team 5’11”, 230, 4.7

Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53

William Green, Browns 6’0”, 221, 4.63

Joe Hall, Not with a Team 6’1”, 277, 4.92

Ennis Haywood, Dallas 5’10”, 218, 4.74

Maurcie Hicks, Bears 5’10”, 200, 4.55

Cortlen Johnson, Not with a Team 5’9”, 200, 4.62

Eric McCoo, Bears 5’10”, 214, 4.51

Dicenzo Miller, Tampa Bay 5-10, 214, 4.8

Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52

Larry Ned, Raiders 5’10”, 220, 4.65

Adrian Peterson, Bears 5’9”, 205, 4.65

Clinton Portis, Denver 5’10”, 204, 4.43

Luke Staley, Detroit 6’1”, 227, 4.55

Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62

Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7

Jonathan Wells, Houston 6’1”, 243, 4.7

Levron Williams, Not with a Team 6’2”, 220, 4.63

Antwoine Womack, New England 5’11”, 218, 4.55

Travis Zachery, Not with a Team 5’11”, 197, 4.65

Now, FOR GOD’s sake, all the guys on that list are not studs in the making, don’t think they are. Many aren’t going to be anything at all without the perfect situation in the NFL. This is a list of the guys that you can possibly look at, nothing more. If a guy came out this year, and isn’t on that list, don’t waste your time, he’s not going to ever have a chance anyway. Alot of these guys won’t have a chance either, but we need a starting point.

Didn't Westbrook come out that year?

 

[crnerblitz]

Lets not look back and critique Mikes projections, that might be a little unfair.

Trade value has seldom held in favor of WR's when trading a WR for a RB. The RB owner is ussually giving up one of his only two starters and so knows he is really hurting his team with that trade.

I have never really found in my experience that dynasty success comes from a stud laden WR corps. Time and again I make the playoffs and win championships with weaker than normal WR play. It is much easier to find startable WR's in todays leagues that start 3 or 4 WR's. The team that uncovers that gem RB is usually the one that makes the deep run into the playoffs. My experience is that it is a very hard search for those gems and you do strike out a lot! Having roster spots that you can churn to try and find gems are better allocated to RB's than WR's. That said, if you have 3 solid Wr's it does free up extra roster spots for the search.

Churning rosters. I do it, but can you imagine my suprise when I noticed today that my MOX HP-6 team that was drafted in 2007 has only 4 players out of 20 that I initially drafted excluding PK and DT. Only 4. Furthermore, one was a 2008 rookie pick and 4 more were aquired by trade. The rest have all been free agents. I am 19-7 in the regular season in the first two years. CHURN THAT BOTTOM 3RD!

 

[skillz]

I never knew this was an actual theory but I guess I inadvertantly used it last year. In my start 2 WR league, I drafted TO and Cotchery pretty early and then didn't really like any of the WR's that were available as I was picking later in the draft. I kept grabbing RB's instead and ended up with Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Lendale in those rounds while everyone else kept picking WR's. After week one, I picked up Eddie Royal and then later on got Lance Moore. In the end I ended up with a great group of WR's AND RB's by just waiting until the season started to add WR depth. So it did wonders for me last year.

 

[ravnzfan]

Many are not sleepers in the slightest, but I wanted to give you the list of what you should be starting with before we go further.)

Ladell Betts, Washington 5’10”, 220, 4.6

Naheh Davenport, Packers 6’0”, 248, 4.6

TJ Duckett, Falcons 6’0”, 254, 4.55

Omar Easy, Kansas City 6’1”, 244, 4.49

Tony Fisher, Packers 6’1”, 226, 4.65

DeShawn Foster, Panthers 6’0”, 222, 4.58

Paris Gains, Not with a Team 5’11”, 230, 4.7

Lamar Gordon, Rams 6’0”, 211, 4.53

William Green, Browns 6’0”, 221, 4.63

Joe Hall, Not with a Team 6’1”, 277, 4.92

Ennis Haywood, Dallas 5’10”, 218, 4.74

Maurcie Hicks, Bears 5’10”, 200, 4.55

Cortlen Johnson, Not with a Team 5’9”, 200, 4.62

Eric McCoo, Bears 5’10”, 214, 4.51

Dicenzo Miller, Tampa Bay 5-10, 214, 4.8

Maurice Morris, Seatle 5’11”, 202, 4.52

Larry Ned, Raiders 5’10”, 220, 4.65

Adrian Peterson, Bears 5’9”, 205, 4.65

Clinton Portis, Denver 5’10”, 204, 4.43

Luke Staley, Detroit 6’1”, 227, 4.55

Chester Taylor, Ravens 5’10”, 312, 4.62

Lew Thomas, Chargers 5’9”, 219, 4.7

Jonathan Wells, Houston 6’1”, 243, 4.7

Levron Williams, Not with a Team 6’2”, 220, 4.63

Antwoine Womack, New England 5’11”, 218, 4.55

Travis Zachery, Not with a Team 5’11”, 197, 4.65

Now, FOR GOD’s sake, all the guys on that list are not studs in the making, don’t think they are. Many aren’t going to be anything at all without the perfect situation in the NFL. This is a list of the guys that you can possibly look at, nothing more. If a guy came out this year, and isn’t on that list, don’t waste your time, he’s not going to ever have a chance anyway. Alot of these guys won’t have a chance either, but we need a starting point.

Didn't Westbrook come out that year?

I know there were seveal pages of information to digest, and to many it was easier to lob a smart-### comment or 2 about how the theory sux...

let me condense, for those glazing over the nuts and bolts of this...

1st premise is the guys like TJ Duckett, Wm Green, CPortis and BWestbrook were going to be rostered via rookie draft, or initial stocking draft

the article is primarily about scanning over the Waiver Wire in existing leagues (or late draft picks in initial drafts), and using the deep roster spots for RB's that are available as FA's and roster those guys rather than be 8 deep @WR and holding a WR that might post a few more FF/ppg but isn't likely to put up big numbers, regardless of situation

the RB's that fit his criteria of "good player'' and ''decent opportunity'' were certainly worthy of a roster spot, given their value if their situation changed

(starter hurt, player traded or moved via FA)

clearly, the final list of 7 had some clear winners on it (LBetts, MMorris, CTaylor), guys that certainly have been worthy of FF starts over their career in the NFL, and at one time were probably available via waivers in our leagues

and keep in mind this was originally written somewhere around '02 or '03, when alot of leagues had these players available on the wire

 

[Ray_T]

well, it is an interesting theory and kind of goes with one that I have.

I have found that if a player is going to come out of the woodwork and completely surprise everyone with their production, it is more likely to be a WR than anybody else.

sure there are recent examples of Cassell (QB- Pats) and Slaton (RB- Houston) and even Warner (rams-now with cards) But these are the exceptions.

It is most likely that if someone is not drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft and becomes a top producer, it is most likely he is a WR.

My theory is that it takes longer for WR's to develop, and unless the player is a total stud from day one (moss) it is usually a good 2-3 years after the draft year when we actually can determine if this player is likely to become anything.

so in my Auction league where we start 2 RB's 2 QB's and 3 WR's (3 keepers are cash exempt) I will either keep 2 QB and 1 RB or 1 RB and 2 QB and spend the big cash on 2 top notch WR's and fill the remaining QB or RB slot with the rest of the cash. I do not worry about the #3 WR all that much until the end. I'll snag my #3, #4, (and #5 if I get one) late in the auction for cheap and hope that one or two of them has a breakout season, while keeping an eye on breakout candidates on the waiver wire once the season starts.

I honestly can say that I find a productive WR every year on the WW that seems to come out of nowhere. So if a person is willing to put in the time, this strategy is not bad.

 

[JohnnyU]

With more and more PPR leagues and the development of WRs seems to me to be advancing, and it's not a slam dunk to always draft QBs late because there are more 4000+ yard QBs than ever before, and more RBBC than ever before, does this theory apply to today's fantasy world? I'm thinking it doesn't.

 

[Sabertooth]