Minnesota passing game thoughts? (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

What do you guys think of the Minny WRs?

Rice seems to be a favorite prospect(of sorts heading into his 2nd year) around here. Allison was thought of fairly highly too last year.

Like Gage in Tenn, they too had one Bear WR do better than expected so they signed another in Berrian.

So what are your thoughts on all of them? Who is starting? Who is 3rd WR?

Also, Visanthe got a nice sized contract in 07 and put up stats akin to him being in NY backing up Shockey still. Learning year? Way overpaid and they need another TE?

Along with your answer, I guess you're stuck predicting Tavaris(sp?) Jackson's stats as him not getting the job done could dramatically affect their production.

 

[vikingdave]

Berrian and Rice will start at WR, Wade in the slot, Ferguson and Allison as the WR4 and WR5...

Jackson has to prove himself and I think he will...Im fairly confident in him, as long as he doesnt suck this should be a playoff team that could do some damage...

 

[finito]

Berrian will have most of the long TDs, Rice will do the underneath damage. In ppr I like Rice. I am a huge Rice fan, though, and think his ceiling is far greater than Berrian's, though Berrian is the safer pick in redrafts.

Jackson, IMO, is going to be "okay." Not great, but he will take a step forward. There were flashes of a real QB last year, and I think he'll be more comfortable this season. I don't believe he was projected as a guy who could step right in and be competitive; there was going to be a learning curve, as there is for most QBs. I think he'll be okay.

For this year, I don't know how effective the WRs will be -- figure Berrian for 800 yds, 6-7 TDs. Rice for 600-800 yds, 5-6 TDs. Not sure who the third guy will be...

Jackson I'd peg for around 2900-3100 yds, 16-18 TDs, 12-15 INTs. Nothing spectucular but a bit better.

 

[Bri]

Berrian and Rice will start at WR, Wade in the slot, Ferguson and Allison as the WR4 and WR5...Jackson has to prove himself and I think he will...Im fairly confident in him, as long as he doesnt suck this should be a playoff team that could do some damage...

pretty sure Ferguson was waived in the spring, I'll see if I can find it with google.ETA Nope, they didn't re-sign him initially and then they did in May. You're right he's a Viking still.

 

[Ripleys]

if Jackson can just be solid/average, that team could be really scary.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Well, this is a team that had the lowest number of passing attempts and completions last year, and I see no reason that should change this year. So, you have to temper your expectations for any part of the passing game right off the bat. The leading WR in targets was Bobby Wade with a whopping 83. He should get close to that many this year as the dependable slot receiver, although having a true starting quality wideout in Berrian and a more experienced Rice should cut into that. Still, you're looking at Berrian and Rice having no more than 180-200 targets between them and the rest of the WR corps (assuming the RBs still get around 90 and TEs around 60, like they did last year). That includes a slight bump from the number of targets the WRs not named Wade had last year (170) to allow for Wade getting less targets because of the better quality of wideouts and the team throwing a little more because Jackson will improve in his third year.

Based on that, the only way one of the WRs become a fantasy factor is posting a high YPC a la Galloway, Holmes, Jennings last year. Berrian certainly has the deep speed, and Rice has the highwire act - but will one of them be the designated deep target like that trio was for their team? In fact, that they both make good deep targets could keep either one from being the top 20 WR this offense could yield in the best case scenario. We could end up with both around 55-800 instead of one at 65-950 and the other at 45-650.

Rice's superior red zone ability and year with Jackson cancels out Berrian's experience imo, and I have them both as low WR3s, even though each has WR2 upside. The staff almost unanimously likes Berrian over Rice (almost sounds like a weird dessert), but I think Rice is the more likely candidate to have the "out of nowhere" 1000 yard season because his ceiling his is considerably higher. If things are clicking in TC, I'll probably bump him ahead of Berrian, even though right now they are almost indistinguishable in my rankings/projections.

Shiancoe - way overpaid, just as everyone thought. Watch out for Garrett Mills to get more catches as long as he makes the 53 man roster and gets on the field a decent amount.

 

[bostonfred]

Well, this is a team that had the lowest number of passing attempts and completions last year, and I see no reason that should change this year.

Really? They had a first year QB who was poorly touted, and Adrian Peterson and Taylor combined for a monster rushing year while they brought him along slowly. They went out and signed one of the top free agent WRs this offseason, and have been generally rebuilding the passing game. I don't think this is a top passing game by any stretch, and I'm not particulary impressed with Jackson or any of their receivers, but I don't think they're a lock to sit at the bottom in passing attempts again, either.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Well, this is a team that had the lowest number of passing attempts and completions last year, and I see no reason that should change this year.

Really? They had a first year QB who was poorly touted, and Adrian Peterson and Taylor combined for a monster rushing year while they brought him along slowly. They went out and signed one of the top free agent WRs this offseason, and have been generally rebuilding the passing game. I don't think this is a top passing game by any stretch, and I'm not particulary impressed with Jackson or any of their receivers, but I don't think they're a lock to sit at the bottom in passing attempts again, either.

As long as the the addition of Jared Allen tightens up the pass defense with his constant pressure on the QB, they will control games and want to follow the same script as last year. Maybe they inch into the bottom three or five, but a repeat is definitely what they want to happen. The Steelers were last in pass attempts in '04 on the shoulders of the running game and defense with a rookie Roethlisberger. They were last again in '05. '06 saw a spike because of Roethlisberger's interception bug forcing them to play from behind a lot, and then they were back to 31st last year. I expect the same type of pattern from Minnesota while they have this running game clicking, and with better pressure to manage the 3rd and longs their run D hands the pass D, they should be able to pull it off. Maybe they won't be dead last in attempts and completions again, but they should be the favorite to do it.