MJD vs. J Stewart/ R Mendenhall (1 Viewer)

[Raiders]

In a dynasty league who would you rather have?

MJD is 23 years old while J Stewart/R Mendenhall are both 21 years old. All three play in good running systems. And all 3 will likely be splitting a lot of time this year with another back. Both MJD and R Mendenahll seem like they should be taking over full time duties next year with Fred Taylor being another year older and Willy Parker set to be a Free agent. J Stewart, not so sure about because D Williams is still very young and was also a first rounder just 2 years ago.

All three look the part physically, but MJD has produced well already in the NFL. But I've got to tell you he looked REALLY BAD at times last year. I don't think it would be unreasonable to wonder if the JAGS would consider drafting anouther RB fairly early next year to replace Taylor, which could aslo present a problem for MJD (see D Williams situation this year, after think that he was replacing D Foster only to see them draft Stewart.)

For 2008 I think you have to definatly say MJD, but 2009 I'm not so sure. I'm leaning Mendenhall. He looks like a beast. He has a young QB/ WR tandem tied up for the forseeable future and culture built upon smash-mouth football in the city of Pittsburgh. J Stewart seems talented but carolina's got a lot of problems on both sides of the football, plus who knows about his foot injury?

I rank them:

2008

MJD
Stewart
Mendenhall2009 - ?

Mendenall
MJD
StewartWHAT SAY YOU?

 

[jurb26]

For 2008:

MJD

Stewart

Mendenhall

For 2009 - beyond:

MJD

Mendenhall

Stewart

MJD has already proven to be a tremendous NFL RB, not just a good one. You say he looked awful at times last year, but he still finished with these numbers:

YR	TM	G	RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	TRG	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPT	RANK	VBD		2007	JAX	15	167	768	4.6	9	55	40	407	10.2	0	172	13

If this is what a guy is capable while playing 2nd fiddle in a RBBC and looking "REALLY BAD" at times then I'm very comfortable ranking him well ahead of totally unproven rookies in sketchy situations.

 

[EBF]

MJD seems like a good candidate to take the next step forward and become a consensus top 3-5 dynasty RB within the next couple of years. He's on my buy list this offseason because he has a lot of upside and a limited downside. At worst, he's probably going to give you the type of numbers he put up in 2006 and 2007. At best he could be another Westbrook.

I'm fairly high on Mendenhall and Stewart. I think Stewart is the better option in a redraft while Mendenhall is the better option in a dynasty. Stewart is a better athlete with a higher ceiling, but Mendenhall's situation is virtually fail-proof and he has less durability concerns.

 

[Raiders]

MJD had 10 games last year with 9 or fewer points.

Week 1= 7- 32, 3-28

Week 2= 11- 31 , 1- 10

Week 3= 15- 37, 2 -18

Week 8= 10-48, 2-14

Week 9= 5-28, 2-31

Week 11= 12-33 1 TD, 1-4

Week 12= 10- 10 1 TD, 2-16

Week 14= 11-24, 2-21

Week 15= 12-69, 5-30

He had only 2 games over 100 yards all season. He had a few big games against some bad teams, but overall very inconsistant. In fact his TD totals are just about the only thing he had going for him last year.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

In the long run it's a coin flip between the three. But MJD's got two years start on the other two, so IMO he's pretty much got to be the answer here.

 

[geoff8695]

MJD had 10 games last year with 9 or fewer points.

Week 1= 7- 32, 3-28

Week 2= 11- 31 , 1- 10

Week 3= 15- 37, 2 -18

Week 8= 10-48, 2-14

Week 9= 5-28, 2-31

Week 11= 12-33 1 TD, 1-4

Week 12= 10- 10 1 TD, 2-16

Week 14= 11-24, 2-21

Week 15= 12-69, 5-30

He had only 2 games over 100 yards all season. He had a few big games against some bad teams, but overall very inconsistant. In fact his TD totals are just about the only thing he had going for him last year.

This ground has all been covered before, but MJD has ALL the tools necessary to be a STUD RB in the NFL and in fantasy.If you need a synopsis of why MJD was ONLY a low end RB1 or a high end RB2 in 2007 then consider that Fred Taylor had a career year and enjoyed the highest YPC of his entire career, and that MJD was used more heavily in short yardage situations than any other RB in the NFL, that the Jags new offensive coordinator didn't figure out how to properly use him until about 4 games into the season, and that Jack Del Rio has already acknowledged that the 32 year old Fred Taylor is going to be giving way to MJD as Taylor's age begins to show, and that the club didn't add any significant depth to the RB position this offseason.

I will bet you whatever you like that if healthy that MJD will have a more productive season in 2008 than in 2007, but you go right ahead drawing conclusions from 2007 that help convince yourself that MJD is somehow overrated.

 

[Evil Genius]

I think MJD is the clear choice for 2008 b/c of his track record, but unless Taylor gets hurt or his role increases I think Stewart can (provided he stays healthy) get close to his numbers. I think Stewart is clearly the best back in CAR and that he will get the lion's share of the carries (think 2/3 to 1/3 for DWill). Mendenhall has value as a TD vulture and could also end up being a great play late in year.

For 2009 and beyond I think they all will end up being roughly equal. I see them as guys who will likley end up in the RB8-12 in some order. I think, even when Taylor is gone, that JAX will find a way to limit MJD's carries. Same goes with Mendenhall in PIT. I think Stewart end up in the best situation to get 275-300 touches in the near future.

 

[SSOG]

MJD had 10 games last year with 9 or fewer points. Week 1= 7- 32, 3-28Week 2= 11- 31 , 1- 10Week 3= 15- 37, 2 -18Week 8= 10-48, 2-14Week 9= 5-28, 2-31Week 11= 12-33 1 TD, 1-4Week 12= 10- 10 1 TD, 2-16Week 14= 11-24, 2-21Week 15= 12-69, 5-30He had only 2 games over 100 yards all season. He had a few big games against some bad teams, but overall very inconsistant. In fact his TD totals are just about the only thing he had going for him last year.

Inconsistency from a RBBC guy? Who'd have guessed it. You also say his TD totals are the only thing he has going for him... but that's an awfully BIG thing to have going for him, and he's demonstrated that it's a repeatable thing. He is option 1, 2, 3, and 5 in the red zone (Reggie Williams is option 4- some might argue that that's a bit low, but despite his 10 TDs, he only had 9 total targets in the red zone last season. Call it the "Jones-Drew Effect").Some people might argue that his TD totals are all Marion Barber has going for him, too.

 

[Don't Noonan]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

 

[LBH]

I like Stewart the best out of the three, but its obviously a gamble since he hasnt played a down in the NFL yet

 

[jurb26]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

Huh?College career

Maurice Jones-Drew played his entire collegiate career at UCLA under head coach Karl Dorrell. Despite being undersized, Jones-Drew led the Bruins in rushing all three years he was on the squad and showed good pass catching ability and big playmaking skills as both a punt and kickoff returner.In 2005, Maurice set an all-time NCAA single-season record with a 28.5 yards per return average on 15 punt returns, breaking the previous record of 25.9 yards per return held by Bill Blackstock of Tennessee in 1951. His career average of 23.2 yards per punt return ranks second in NCAA history. Jones-Drew also established a number of UCLA records, including the career all-purpose yardage record (4,688 yards). As a sophomore against Washington, Maurice set UCLA's all-time record for yards rushing in a single game (322 yards) and also scored a school-record five touchdowns.On his first carry of the game he burst to the outside and raced 47 yards to tie the game at 7-7. On his second carry, with UCLA trailing 24-7 and 2:30 remaining in the first quarter, he raced 62 yards for another TD. On his fourth carry, a third-and-12 with 40 seconds left in the first quarter, he sped 58 yards for his third TD. In the first quarter alone, he rushed for 169 yards and three touchdowns on four attempts. He gave the Bruins the lead for good (27-24) with 4:16 remaining in the first half when he scooted around right end for a 15-yard touchdown. In the third quarter, he broke numerous tackles en route to his school-record fifth touchdown, a 37-yard run on the Bruins' first possession of the half. His total of 322 yards rushing was the 3rd most in the history of the Pac-10 Conference, and his overall performance earned him several National Player of the Week awards.His final year in college, his junior year, he was a consensus first-team All-American as an all-purpose back and a first-team All-Pac 10 selection as a punt returner, ahead of Heisman Trophy-winner Reggie Bush. He was also the first Bruin since Jackie Robinson to lead the country in punt returning. Maurice gave a sign of things to come when, as a freshman, he rushed for 176 yards on only 18 carries against Arizona State, including an 83-yard scamper down the left sideline to the end zone which put UCLA ahead in the game for good in the third quarter. The run was the longest ever by a Bruin true freshman and ranked ninth (tied) overall on the school's list of long runs. His 176-yard day ranks No. 2 on UCLA's all-time list for true freshmen. In his collegiate career, Jones-Drew had 16 touchdowns of 40-plus yards. He was named to the Golden Gridiron Team by the WCBGU Athletic Group.

I don't think you paid enough attention to him in college is all.

 

[Don't Noonan]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

Huh?College career

Maurice Jones-Drew played his entire collegiate career at UCLA under head coach Karl Dorrell. Despite being undersized, Jones-Drew led the Bruins in rushing all three years he was on the squad and showed good pass catching ability and big playmaking skills as both a punt and kickoff returner.In 2005, Maurice set an all-time NCAA single-season record with a 28.5 yards per return average on 15 punt returns, breaking the previous record of 25.9 yards per return held by Bill Blackstock of Tennessee in 1951. His career average of 23.2 yards per punt return ranks second in NCAA history. Jones-Drew also established a number of UCLA records, including the career all-purpose yardage record (4,688 yards). As a sophomore against Washington, Maurice set UCLA's all-time record for yards rushing in a single game (322 yards) and also scored a school-record five touchdowns.On his first carry of the game he burst to the outside and raced 47 yards to tie the game at 7-7. On his second carry, with UCLA trailing 24-7 and 2:30 remaining in the first quarter, he raced 62 yards for another TD. On his fourth carry, a third-and-12 with 40 seconds left in the first quarter, he sped 58 yards for his third TD. In the first quarter alone, he rushed for 169 yards and three touchdowns on four attempts. He gave the Bruins the lead for good (27-24) with 4:16 remaining in the first half when he scooted around right end for a 15-yard touchdown. In the third quarter, he broke numerous tackles en route to his school-record fifth touchdown, a 37-yard run on the Bruins' first possession of the half. His total of 322 yards rushing was the 3rd most in the history of the Pac-10 Conference, and his overall performance earned him several National Player of the Week awards.His final year in college, his junior year, he was a consensus first-team All-American as an all-purpose back and a first-team All-Pac 10 selection as a punt returner, ahead of Heisman Trophy-winner Reggie Bush. He was also the first Bruin since Jackie Robinson to lead the country in punt returning. Maurice gave a sign of things to come when, as a freshman, he rushed for 176 yards on only 18 carries against Arizona State, including an 83-yard scamper down the left sideline to the end zone which put UCLA ahead in the game for good in the third quarter. The run was the longest ever by a Bruin true freshman and ranked ninth (tied) overall on the school's list of long runs. His 176-yard day ranks No. 2 on UCLA's all-time list for true freshmen. In his collegiate career, Jones-Drew had 16 touchdowns of 40-plus yards. He was named to the Golden Gridiron Team by the WCBGU Athletic Group.

I don't think you paid enough attention to him in college is all.

Could be. I know he has always been good on special teams. I'd be curious to see his yards per game/run on the ground for his career at UCLA. He just didn't stick out to me as a great player in college and I follow the PAC very close.

 

[gheemony]

We know that MJD is an extremely good NFL RB without a history of injury. We don't know that about Mendenhall or Stewart. We think they will be, but you don't know. Easy to pick MJD today above the other two.

 

[SSOG]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

Coming out, I thought Jones-Drew had looked as good in college as Reggie Bush did, especially when you consider the supporting casts (actually, I spent the first few weeks of the offseason wondering whatever had happened to that impressive Maurice Drew kid from UCLA until I realized he was now Maurice JONES-Drew and then made a point of targeting him in my leagues).I think Jones-Drew may have hit his ceiling already, too. Of course, that ceiling is 5.7 yards per attempt and 13 TDs on 166 runs, as well as 40/400+ receiving. Tomlinson and Westbrook have probably hit their ceilings already, too, but that doesn't mean they're not studs. Jones-Drew's numbers have been ABSURD so far in the NFL, so even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.Seriously, he's posted 2000+ all-purpose yards in each season. He's been one of the top kickoff returners in both seasons. He's posted very good yards per rush numbers, lots of TDs, and great receiving numbers. He's finished as RB8 and RB13 in those two years (higher for me because i usually play in return yardage leagues). He's already a top-10 fantasy RB, even if nothing ever changes, and he should have a nice long career because of the light usage. I'd *LOVE* 8 years of borderline top-10 production in a dynasty league. A guy who finishes 8th-10th every year for 8 years would probably be a top 4-5 dynasty RB, in my mind. At this point, Jones-Drew's upside is just icing- it's his downside that's so appealing. Even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.

 

[kremenull]

MJD seems like a good candidate to take the next step forward and become a consensus top 3-5 dynasty RB within the next couple of years. He's on my buy list this offseason because he has a lot of upside and a limited downside. At worst, he's probably going to give you the type of numbers he put up in 2006 and 2007. At best he could be another Westbrook.

I'm fairly high on Mendenhall and Stewart. I think Stewart is the better option in a redraft while Mendenhall is the better option in a dynasty. Stewart is a better athlete with a higher ceiling, but Mendenhall's situation is virtually fail-proof and he has less durability concerns.

I'm not that high on MJD's prospects of ever becoming a Top 3-5 RB prospect, but I can see your point in that he is a candidate......Considering that you are a pretty big collegiate profile guy, one thing that I think you are overlooking here is that guys currently in the NFL always have emerging threats to their rank/status, especially those hovering near the top.......Given both the current landscape of the RB position in the NFL and the young talents looking to eventually make their mark, and some of them surely will, I just don't see MJD as a strong bet to break into the 3-5 range of dynasty RBs.....Possible, slightly, but probable, nada.......The list of potential Top 3-5 within the next few years includes these names.....Lynch

Addai

S-Jax

"All Day" Pete

D-Mac

MJD

Gore

Stewart

Mendenhall

Beanie Wells

Moreno

Bush (PPR)

Personally, I'm projecting that I'll be drafting Wells, D-Mac, Lynch, Bush, and possibly Stewart all ahead of MJD in 2009 dynasty startups......not to mention some of the existing guys are already clearly ranked above him

 

[mdog1967]

I think MJD is a Stud, if it was a re-draft I would take MJD this year. Proven over potential every day. But for Dynasty I think Stew is a nasty talent and if not for DMAC choking up the good press Stew would have been a much Higher rated back in my opinion. So I voted Stew for the long term, prototypical size and superb running skills, good hands.

 

[SSOG]

I'm not that high on MJD's prospects of ever becoming a Top 3-5 RB prospect, but I can see your point in that he is a candidate......Considering that you are a pretty big collegiate profile guy, one thing that I think you are overlooking here is that guys currently in the NFL always have emerging threats to their rank/status, especially those hovering near the top...

This may be true, but in the end, talent always wins out, and MJD is clearly one of the most talented RBs in the league. Not one of the most talented YOUNG RBs, but one of the most talented RBs PERIOD. I would call him arguably among the top 5 in the NFL at rushing, receiving, blocking, *AND* returning kickoffs. Yes, there will be a lot of unproven threats to his throne if he ever ascends into that uberstud category, but 50% of players entering the NFL wind up being busts, and another huge percentage wind up being nothing but good players. Look at Reggie Bush- he was supposed to be the next Barry Sanders/Marshall Faulk/Pick Your Comp, and he wound up being a colossal disappointment. There might be another RB that proves to be as talented as MJD, but it's a crapshoot picking which one, whereas MJD is a sure thing.Also, as I said earlier, a guy could easily justify a top-5 dynasty ranking even if he never finished a single season in his entire career as a top-5 RB. I'd take a string of 8 straight top-10 finishes over a string of 3 straight top-5 finishes.

 

[Mikey16x]

to say MJD hit a ceiling is crazy... the guy has never really had the chance to carry a team. I am very high on him.. i watched him at UCLA and watched his draft position and was actually pretty happy when the jags nabbed him knowing that taylor is close to retirement and he would have a future there... this guy is a stud and has every tool needed to excel at the NFL level.... he's powerful... gets plenty of YAC.. fast as lightning.. you will never see his ceiling until taylor retires.. i would take him over both of these running backs in dynasty and redraft.. mainly bc neither of the other RB's mentioned strike me as a home run threat.. sure mendenhall can grind yards.. sure stewart is a shifty back.. but i don't see either possessing the type of athleticism or ability that MJD carries.

 

[David Yudkin]

In a dynasty league who would you rather have?MJD is 23 years old while J Stewart/R Mendenhall are both 21 years old. All three play in good running systems.

Do you actually consider Carolina's running game "good?"2007 JAX 522-2391-18-4.6 2007 CAR 451-1824-7-4.0 2006 JAX 513-2541-23-5.0 2006 CAR 423-1659-7-3.9 2005 JAX 502-1959-18-3.9 2005 CAR 487-1679- 17-3.4 The Jags bettered the Panthers in every one of those categories and usually by a fair amount. As much as I have not been an MJD fan, we know Fred Taylor will not be playing forever. It would not be unreasonable to expect MJD to get a lot more carries once Taylor retires (although that is far from a given). And it's equally not unreasonable to think Carolina will split the workload between Stewart and Mendenhall (we don't know to what extent yet). In either redraft or dynasty I would rather have MJD.

 

[Burning Sensation]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

Coming out, I thought Jones-Drew had looked as good in college as Reggie Bush did, especially when you consider the supporting casts (actually, I spent the first few weeks of the offseason wondering whatever had happened to that impressive Maurice Drew kid from UCLA until I realized he was now Maurice JONES-Drew and then made a point of targeting him in my leagues).I think Jones-Drew may have hit his ceiling already, too. Of course, that ceiling is 5.7 yards per attempt and 13 TDs on 166 runs, as well as 40/400+ receiving. Tomlinson and Westbrook have probably hit their ceilings already, too, but that doesn't mean they're not studs. Jones-Drew's numbers have been ABSURD so far in the NFL, so even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.

Seriously, he's posted 2000+ all-purpose yards in each season. He's been one of the top kickoff returners in both seasons. He's posted very good yards per rush numbers, lots of TDs, and great receiving numbers. He's finished as RB8 and RB13 in those two years (higher for me because i usually play in return yardage leagues). He's already a top-10 fantasy RB, even if nothing ever changes, and he should have a nice long career because of the light usage. I'd *LOVE* 8 years of borderline top-10 production in a dynasty league. A guy who finishes 8th-10th every year for 8 years would probably be a top 4-5 dynasty RB, in my mind. At this point, Jones-Drew's upside is just icing- it's his downside that's so appealing. Even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.

I could be wrong, but didnt he add the Jones after he was drafted?

 

[kremenull]

I'm not that high on MJD's prospects of ever becoming a Top 3-5 RB prospect, but I can see your point in that he is a candidate......Considering that you are a pretty big collegiate profile guy, one thing that I think you are overlooking here is that guys currently in the NFL always have emerging threats to their rank/status, especially those hovering near the top...

This may be true, but in the end, talent always wins out, and MJD is clearly one of the most talented RBs in the league. Not one of the most talented YOUNG RBs, but one of the most talented RBs PERIOD. I would call him arguably among the top 5 in the NFL at rushing, receiving, blocking, *AND* returning kickoffs. Yes, there will be a lot of unproven threats to his throne if he ever ascends into that uberstud category, but 50% of players entering the NFL wind up being busts, and another huge percentage wind up being nothing but good players. Look at Reggie Bush- he was supposed to be the next Barry Sanders/Marshall Faulk/Pick Your Comp, and he wound up being a colossal disappointment. There might be another RB that proves to be as talented as MJD, but it's a crapshoot picking which one, whereas MJD is a sure thing.Also, as I said earlier, a guy could easily justify a top-5 dynasty ranking even if he never finished a single season in his entire career as a top-5 RB. I'd take a string of 8 straight top-10 finishes over a string of 3 straight top-5 finishes.

Good point highlighted.......But to say that talent "always wins out in the NFL", is not exactly true. What do you mean by "wins out". Emmit Smith is clearly not the most talented back ever, but many rank him as the best ever and he has the most yards ever. In fantasy leagues, most were selecting Emmitt over Barry Sanders year after year....is this because Emmitt was more talented? I don't think so. And I certainly would not say that MJD is more talented than at least 10 RBs in league......amongst them, sure. But not more talented. Most people assume that once Fred Taylor is gone, MJD will assume those carries and become some ultra-stud, producing 350 fantasy points ala Westbrook, LT, and Tiki. I would not rule it out altogether, but it is also not a given either. I'm still not sure he can be a workhorse, and frankly, I'm not sure that Jax wants him to be a workhorse RB, as he is giving them maximum effort/production given his load-share role.......so why try to fix it if it ain't broke......If I were to project this situation out, I'd say that Jax drafts/acquires another top-shelf type talent at RB to complement MJD.....MJD may not have hit his ceiling, but he could be pretty close.......As I've posted before, in PPR leagues, MJD has less than 5 total points more than Bush in their first 2 seasons, with Bush playing 3 fewer gms.......Just my .02.

 

[Sebowski]

I'm still not sold on MJD. He could still turn out to be Dominick Davis IMO.

 

[metoo]

to say MJD hit a ceiling is crazy... the guy has never really had the chance to carry a team. I am very high on him.. i watched him at UCLA and watched his draft position and was actually pretty happy when the jags nabbed him knowing that taylor is close to retirement and he would have a future there... this guy is a stud and has every tool needed to excel at the NFL level.... he's powerful... gets plenty of YAC.. fast as lightning.. you will never see his ceiling until taylor retires.. i would take him over both of these running backs in dynasty and redraft.. mainly bc neither of the other RB's mentioned strike me as a home run threat.. sure mendenhall can grind yards.. sure stewart is a shifty back].. but i don't see either possessing the type of athleticism or ability that MJD carries.

You may like MJD better but Stewart and Mendenhall can take it to the house.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I'm still not sold on MJD. He could still turn out to be Dominick Davis IMO.

You're probably right, if by the next Dom Davis you mean a guy with more speed, more power, and without a degenerative knee. Nothing wrong with not being sold on MJD yet, but comparing him to Dom Davis?!?!?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

Coming out, I thought Jones-Drew had looked as good in college as Reggie Bush did, especially when you consider the supporting casts (actually, I spent the first few weeks of the offseason wondering whatever had happened to that impressive Maurice Drew kid from UCLA until I realized he was now Maurice JONES-Drew and then made a point of targeting him in my leagues).I think Jones-Drew may have hit his ceiling already, too. Of course, that ceiling is 5.7 yards per attempt and 13 TDs on 166 runs, as well as 40/400+ receiving. Tomlinson and Westbrook have probably hit their ceilings already, too, but that doesn't mean they're not studs. Jones-Drew's numbers have been ABSURD so far in the NFL, so even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.

Seriously, he's posted 2000+ all-purpose yards in each season. He's been one of the top kickoff returners in both seasons. He's posted very good yards per rush numbers, lots of TDs, and great receiving numbers. He's finished as RB8 and RB13 in those two years (higher for me because i usually play in return yardage leagues). He's already a top-10 fantasy RB, even if nothing ever changes, and he should have a nice long career because of the light usage. I'd *LOVE* 8 years of borderline top-10 production in a dynasty league. A guy who finishes 8th-10th every year for 8 years would probably be a top 4-5 dynasty RB, in my mind. At this point, Jones-Drew's upside is just icing- it's his downside that's so appealing. Even if this is as good as it gets, it's plenty good enough for me.

I could be wrong, but didnt he add the Jones after he was drafted?

No, he changed it during his junior year at UCLA.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I'm still not sold on MJD. He could still turn out to be Dominick Davis IMO.

I don't know what else the kid has to do to get the respect he's earned.

 

[lod01]

MJD all day. Does the guy ever even get a hangnail? Plus they are a run 1st team.

 

[Routilla]

I'm franchising MJD over LJ, so you know where I voted.

 

[valhallan]

I'm still not sold on MJD. He could still turn out to be Dominick Davis IMO.

I don't know what else the kid has to do to get the respect he's earned.

Yep. I just pray the guy with MJD in my dynasty league thinks like Seb.

 

[SSOG]

I could be wrong, but didnt he add the Jones after he was drafted?

Don't know, I just remember the "well duh" feeling I got upon realizing that Maurice Jones-Drew and Maurice Drew were the same guy.

I'm not that high on MJD's prospects of ever becoming a Top 3-5 RB prospect, but I can see your point in that he is a candidate......Considering that you are a pretty big collegiate profile guy, one thing that I think you are overlooking here is that guys currently in the NFL always have emerging threats to their rank/status, especially those hovering near the top...

This may be true, but in the end, talent always wins out, and MJD is clearly one of the most talented RBs in the league. Not one of the most talented YOUNG RBs, but one of the most talented RBs PERIOD. I would call him arguably among the top 5 in the NFL at rushing, receiving, blocking, *AND* returning kickoffs. Yes, there will be a lot of unproven threats to his throne if he ever ascends into that uberstud category, but 50% of players entering the NFL wind up being busts, and another huge percentage wind up being nothing but good players. Look at Reggie Bush- he was supposed to be the next Barry Sanders/Marshall Faulk/Pick Your Comp, and he wound up being a colossal disappointment. There might be another RB that proves to be as talented as MJD, but it's a crapshoot picking which one, whereas MJD is a sure thing.Also, as I said earlier, a guy could easily justify a top-5 dynasty ranking even if he never finished a single season in his entire career as a top-5 RB. I'd take a string of 8 straight top-10 finishes over a string of 3 straight top-5 finishes.

Good point highlighted.......But to say that talent "always wins out in the NFL", is not exactly true. What do you mean by "wins out". Emmit Smith is clearly not the most talented back ever, but many rank him as the best ever and he has the most yards ever. In fantasy leagues, most were selecting Emmitt over Barry Sanders year after year....is this because Emmitt was more talented? I don't think so. And I certainly would not say that MJD is more talented than at least 10 RBs in league......amongst them, sure. But not more talented. Most people assume that once Fred Taylor is gone, MJD will assume those carries and become some ultra-stud, producing 350 fantasy points ala Westbrook, LT, and Tiki. I would not rule it out altogether, but it is also not a given either. I'm still not sure he can be a workhorse, and frankly, I'm not sure that Jax wants him to be a workhorse RB, as he is giving them maximum effort/production given his load-share role.......so why try to fix it if it ain't broke......If I were to project this situation out, I'd say that Jax drafts/acquires another top-shelf type talent at RB to complement MJD.....MJD may not have hit his ceiling, but he could be pretty close.......As I've posted before, in PPR leagues, MJD has less than 5 total points more than Bush in their first 2 seasons, with Bush playing 3 fewer gms.......Just my .02.

The #1 fantasy back isn't always the most talented back, but in the end, elite talents always produce elite production. If a guy is a backup on a terrible team, but is a special talent, then eventually he's going to find his way into the starting lineup and he's going to produce. Talent always shines through.Back to MJD... I would definitely say that MJD is more talented than almost all of the backs in the NFL. I'd call Tomlinson, Westbrook, and Peterson more talented, and that's pretty much it. I actually think MJD is more talented than Steven Jackson, but Jackson is going to be getting a bigger workload and is therefore a better fantasy option.

As for Jacksonville not fixing what ain't broke... as I said, he's been a borderline top-10 RB for two straight years in the current situation, and splitting time will definitely extend his career, so even if Jacksonville maintains the status quo, MJD would justify the lofty ranking for the year-after-year RB1 fantasy finishes, even if he never breaks out with a fantasy RB1 year.

As far as PPR leagues go... so what if Bush ranks close to MJD? Bush ranks high because he got a ton of no-value junk dumpoffs (a la Derrick Mason), while MJD ranks high because he's a sublime talent (a la Santonio Holmes). Just because they produced similar numbers in the recent past doesn't mean they have similar value going forward.

I'm still not sold on MJD. He could still turn out to be Dominick Davis IMO.

By "turn out to be Dominick Davis" do you mean "turn out to be a guy who averages 100+ yards per game every year until his career is finally ended by injury"? I could think of a lot worse things for MJD to turn out to be than another Dominick Davis, seeing as Davis was well on his way to fantasy uberstud status before a degenerative knee condition derailed him.

 

[kremenull]

As far as PPR leagues go... so what if Bush ranks close to MJD? Bush ranks high because he got a ton of no-value junk dumpoffs (a la Derrick Mason), while MJD ranks high because he's a sublime talent (a la Santonio Holmes). Just because they produced similar numbers in the recent past doesn't mean they have similar value going forward.

You're right.......I have Bush > MJD going forward.......Bush is a 300 pt PPR machine waiting to happen....not so sure MJD is.....

 

[teamroc]

MJD didn't really stand out at UCLA and I am very surprised at his success in the NFL. I will give him his props but I think he may have hit his ceiling already. Stewart is the best option here long term with Mendy behind him, 2008 MJD and Stewart may be pretty even.

You should probably watch college football before opening your mouth. That was simply painful to read. If I had any clue who you were I'd put it in my sig.

 

[teamroc]

As far as PPR leagues go... so what if Bush ranks close to MJD? Bush ranks high because he got a ton of no-value junk dumpoffs (a la Derrick Mason), while MJD ranks high because he's a sublime talent (a la Santonio Holmes). Just because they produced similar numbers in the recent past doesn't mean they have similar value going forward.

You're right.......I have Bush > MJD going forward.......Bush is a 300 pt PPR machine waiting to happen....not so sure MJD is.....

Bush is a PPR machine as long NO keeps force feeding him the ball. After he got hurt the offense IMPROVED. We might have seen the end of Reggie getting his named called so much. He simply doesn't produce for the amt of carries/catches. His ypc is awful. He's a drive killer. Bush is a PPR machine as long as his hype machine stays active, but I have a feeling the Saints are starting to realize he's probably better with much less touches, and him not running the ball.