I don't even really have any crow to eat. He's a 30-year-old journey man with a .245 career batting average. One 50 HR season doesn't make him a top draft pick. Even if he repeats it this season, he wasn't the smart pick at his ADP.
If he puts up another 50+ home runs he'll have been worth the #1 overall pick. Nevermind any later. If you got him in a later round, kudos (I got him in the 3rd round both leagues).
That's nonsense. 2010 Jose Bautista was a slightly better and flashier version of Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn has never sniffed being a first round selection, and he's been doing that for the better part of a decade. Make me a rational argument that he was a smarter pick than a guy like Dunn coming into this season. If you were willing to take the BA risk to get a big HR guy, one has 8 years of "know what you've got" and the other is a big pile of mystery. In terms of his value vs. ADP, its all about the risk/reward. If you're playing in a deep, high-stakes league, taking a guy like Bautista as the cornerstone of your team is a boom or bust move. It offers way more risk than upside, IMO. If you did it and it works out, that's great for you. That's like doubling down on a 12 in blackjack and spiking a 9. I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying you're playing the short side of the math.
Find me ONE person that has followed Bautista's career arc and followed their outlier season with another top notch season. When you find that one, I'll go find 7 or 8 that have been complete flops in their follow-up season. It
usually doesn't happen that way.
As for your claim that he'll be worth the first overall pick if he has a repeat season, I just don't see it. The first overall pick will never be a guy that hits .260 and has single digit steals. At best, you can make an argument that he's Ryan Howard lite... and that's still a guy that has never been a serious consideration for #1 overall value in standard 5x5.
Some of you guys have a serious man crush on this dude, and to be honest I'm a little baffled. He's a nice power hitter, and he's certainly fun to watch, but I just can't imagine putting down a big pile of cash to play and hitching my wagons to Bautista with an early pick.