Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Standard FBG scoring, no PPR. I'll mock the first two rounds...might as well start some discussion for next year's redrafts. (Assuming a 12 team here.)
Feel free to compliment, tear apart, or laugh at any of this. It'll be good discussion at any rate. And, I know I'll probably miss something in this process. I'll edit this as people change my mind.
Players are in bold, assumptions in italics, and comments in regular type.
Edits:
Put Santana Moss in the third round. (12/24)
Moved Ronnie Brown down to the fourth. (12/24)
Moved Steve Smith down from 1.09 to 2.01 (12/29)
Moved Antonio Gates up from 2.12 to 2.08 (12/29)
Moved Ahman Green down from 3.10 to 4.04 (12/29)
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle
Assumptions: He stays in Seattle.
There's three players that can go here, obviously, but I think SA's the most consistently *great* out of the three. LJ needs to prove he can do it for more than 8 games at a time, and LT needs to stay healthy.
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City
Assumptions: OL stays together.
And LJ has the most upside of the three. He's played in limited action, granted...but he's shown he can stay healthy, he can produce, even in a limited role, and given the chance, he's great. I pick him over LT for his upside, and the fact that he's gone injury-free. He's *third* in PPG this year. He's only played full time in half of those games.
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego
Assumptions: None.
You can argue him at 1.01 or 1.02, but I'd honestly like to see a good argument for him lower than this.
1.04: Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis
Assumptions: He resigns with Indy.
Obviously, a dropoff after the first three, but I think James is clearly the best of the rest. Huge yardage nearly every game, plus around a TD a game. Can't argue with that.
1.05: Lamont Jordan, RB, Oakland
Assumptions: None
Well, this is where it gets tricky. I like Lamont here, just because he has upside, where some of the older guys should fall a little. He's very high in points this year, and if that offense gets going (meaning: they have late leads to run out the clock), he could really be huge.
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington
Assumptions: none
It seems like Washington is finally on the rise again, and Portis is extremely young still, and should be a huge part of that rise. Again, a guy with top 4 potential, and he's been solid so far this year.
1.07: Tiki Barber, RB, NY Giants
Assumptions: None
This one was tricky. I like Tiki as much as the next guy, but this is awfully high to take someone who will be 31.5 at the beginning of next year, and will have a TD vulture. However, he's been unbelievable this year, 5th in PPG (*barely* below some BIG names), and that offense should improve even more next year. I don't see how I can take him above here, because of the risk of age...but I don't see how you could take him below here, either.
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati
Assumptions: Perry doesn't take his job (very unlikely)
Another player who's been very good this year, who's team is on the rise, and who's young enough to succeed. I think he and Portis are interchangable, I just like Portis's situation a little bit better here. Rudi's had a fantastic second half, and I don't see him slipping much into next year.
1.09: Reggie (gulp) Bush, RB/KR, Houston
Assumptions: He is drafted #1 by Houston, has a goalline vulture at *most*.
Had to put him somewhere. I can dig up the post where I could make an argument for him at 6th, but I won't do that, because there's too much risk involved. At 10th, I think the risk/reward is just right. Houston's a great situation for him. Their current RB is ranked 9th in PPG, and Reggie should be much better than Domanick. The downsides are obvious. He could be a bust, he is a kick returner (better chance of injury), and he's never carried even close to this load.
1.10: Peyton Manning, QB, Indy
Assumptions: None
This is where he should've gone this year. He's a very, very good QB, but not 1st overall good. A 30-35 TD, good yardage QB should go about here. There's something to be said for his lack of injuries as well, given what happened to this year's first round picks.
1.11: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
Assumptions: They find a warm body to coach them.
Every RB at this point in the draft is a risk. But, Jackson has serious potential, as evidenced by a few of his games this year. If he can stay healthy, and St. Louis can use him correctly, he could be a HUGE force. I like him over other backs here because of his age, and his fairly good performance this year.
1.12: Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
Assumptions: He's healthy going into next year.
This is where people start taking more flyer picks at RB (this year: Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, etc.), and sometimes, they don't work out. However, Williams has shown a major burst at times this year when he's been healthy, and could be a top 10 back if he avoids injury, and Gruden doesn't wear him out again. I think another year could really help with that.
2.01: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina
Assumptions: None
Yep, this is where most people would have had Randy Moss for the last two years, and I think it's a fitting spot for Smith. He's first in PPG for WRs by a large margin (well, non-TO WRs.), and I don't see this offense passing the ball any less next year.
2.02: Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
Assumptions: None
This is where it gets fun. Does Willis rebound from a disappointing (but not horrible) year? He's 22nd in PPG this year, and 18th if you take away the backs that haven't played all year. He's going as RB 12. So, I'm bumping him up six slots because of his youth, the fact that Buffalo has nowhere to go but up, and hopefully, they can get him some O-line help.
2.03: Terrell Owens, WR, ???
Assumptions: He signs with a decent/good passing team.
Like Reggie Bush in the first round, I had to throw one in here to get you guys going.
Would I really draft him here? Yes.
I'll give you one question. In PPG, do you know who's leading WRs this year? No, not Boldin. No, not Steve Smith. No, not Marvin Harrison. The loudmouth himself.
He's 7 tenths of a point better than Smith per game this year. That's fantastic, considering his turmoil in Philidelphia, etc.
Remember, he's always pleasant for one year with a new team before causing problems. In a redraft, that can be gold.
2.04: Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago
Assumptions: Benson doesn't take significant time from him.
With the assumption above, Jones could be an absolute *steal* here. He's a top 10 back this year, and looks like he's finally found an offense he's comfortable in. Why do I put him here when Benson is looming? I take one look at Drew Brees...and see him still starting. Why wouldn't Jones, especially when he's doing this well?
2.05: Brian Westbrook, RB, Philidelphia
Assumptions: He's fine for 06, and so is McNabb.
There's just no arguing consistent production. The only reason he's bumped this low is because of his one-two game injury every year. Other than that, he's a top 15, top 10 back, he's that way every year, and if you grab a good first round back, you round that out with Westbrook, and you get a very solid foundation.
2.06: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincy
Assumptions: None
He very well could be the #1 QB in FF, but I'd honestly rather have Manning because he's done it for so long. Palmer is young, still growing into that offense, and has had an absolutely fantastic year. He has the weapons, and the average defense you need to make a very good FF quarterback.
2.07: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincy
Assumptions: None
I'm picking him here over Holt/Boldin, etc, just because he has less question marks. I think Boldin, Holt, and Chad are all in a tier right here, but I really like Chad more, because he's still young, and hasn't been hurt...and, he's not in a two #1 WR offense like Boldin is. If Arizona ever gets a running game, Boldin/Fitz are in trouble, fantasy wise.
2.08: Antonio Gates, TE, SD
Assumptions: None
Name the only player to outscore the 2nd place player (PPG) at his position by more than 1.2 PPG this year. That's right, it's Gates. In fact, Gates has more than *doubled* that...at 2.8 PPG better than Shockey.
As a VBD pick, he's absolutely fantastic, given that Shockey, at second, really isn't even close to what Gates can do. I think he'll go higher than this, honestly, but I'm being conservative here. Remember, he and Gonzo went in the 3rd round this year, and there wasn't nearly this difference among TEs.
2.09: Reuben Droughns, RB, Cleveland
Assumptions: None
If Thomas Jones is the Tiki Barber of 2005, who is the Tiki Barber of 2006?
Look no further.
Droughns has been very solid, in a fairly bad offense. He's been even better as the season's gone along. He's losing steam late, but I think that's a problem that can be corrected next year. Cleveland knows what they need to fix, but also knows that Droughns very well could be the center to their future. I like him as a steal in the late second/early third round.
2.10: Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis
Assumptions: None.
The injuries worry me a little bit, so he's behind Chad, but just above Boldin, because I do worry about the Arizona situation as well. However, Holt is fantastic whenever he's in the lineup (and don't get me wrong, that's very often), and he's a monster with Bulger in there. Don't let this year's stats fool you. He's been battling injuries, been battling backup QBs, and is STILL fourth in PPG among receivers. Wow.
2.11: Corey Dillon, RB, New England
Assumptions: NE doesn't get another RB.
Yes, he's an injury risk. That's taken into consideration here. However, he's also a back, when he's in the lineup, that gets you 70-80 yards, and usually a TD per game (or close to that). You really can't beat that for his draft position here.
2.12: Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona
Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically get a running game in the offseason.
He's second in PPG this year. He's even better lately, emerging as the #1 guy in Arizona, slowly but surely. Him, Holt, and Chad are pretty much all interchangable as far as I'm concerned, so I usually rank them in terms of question marks. I worry about Boldin's injury history, and Fitz's ability to keep up with him in terms of targets. So, I put him last among those three.
3.01: Marvin Harrison, QB, Indy
Assumptions: None
As has already been said in this thread, Harrison is the most consistent top 5 receiver out there. He's been top five for about five years in a row now, and is showing no signs of slowing down. The only reason I put him down here is because while the players above are on the upslopes of their carrers, Harrison will begin slightly fading soon. But, he's extremely close to all the other receivers.
3.02: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philidelphia
Assumptions: None
He's #1 overall this year in PPG by a quarterback. The guy knows how to throw, and throw well. However, I think the loss of TO will put him at a risk for next year (see: Culpepper, Daunte), and his injury will scare a few owners as well. I think this is a pretty good spot for him, given his potential, yet taking risk into account as well.
3.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona
Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically find a running game.
Like Boldin, I really like Fitzgerald. He's a fantastic player, in a fantastic offense for his skills...but the only problem remains is that he has to split receptions with Boldin. That's fine...until Arizona learns that passing 90% of the time won't win games.
3.04: Julius Jones, RB, Dallas
Assumptions: He wins the starting job in camp.
Yes, he's 24th in PPG this year, but if you look at RBs left in this draft, Jones is the only one not stuck in a bad situation. So, a lot of owners are going to need him to rebound next year. He gets the goalline carries, and if the assumption comes true, he's a good running back in a good running offense. Can't argue too much with that.
3.05: Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle
Assumptions: None
Another tier of WRs starts here, but nobody can argue with what DJax has done this year when he's healthy. He's a key part of that Seattle offense, and is good for 100/1 (at least) on several occasions throughout the year.
3.06: Mike Anderson, RB, Denver
Assumptions: He's named the starter again in Denver, splits time just like this year.
There are a lot of things working against MA that drops him this far. His age is a severe factor. Tatum Bell keeps breathing down his neck. However, I find it hard to argue with a consistently good, consistently high-scoring back in a good offense at this position in the draft.
3.07: Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta
Assumptions: None
As awful as Vick has been at times this year, Warrick Dunn has been good enough to keep that offense afloat. He doesn't get goalline carries, but he eats up yardage like Pac-Man eats those little dots. Good RB3/flex...and decent RB2 if you took a high WR or QB.
3.08: Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh
Assumptions: None
Ward has dealt with a ton of things this year...and one major thing is Big Ben's injury. He's still been able to be a top 15 WR, with flashes of brilliance at times this year, and if I'm drafting a WR this early, I want someone who I know I can rely on to put up numbers for me. There's a lot of question marks with some of these receivers, and I would take Ward above a lot of them.
3.09: Randy Moss, WR, Oakland
Assumptions: None
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I believe his ADP will be higher than this, honestly, but at 3.09, he's a potential bargain. He started out the year VERY well, which will be harped on all off-season as a reason to still rely on him. He got hurt, and then...his production went south very quickly. You want high-risk, high-reward? This is your guy.
3.10: Santana Moss, WR, Washington
Assumptions: None
Brunell loves Santana Moss, and so do fantasy owners. After a couple of weeks off the radar, he won a lot of championships with his 180/3 performance in Week 16. The reason I finally gave in and put him up here was because I've decided he's just a streaky receiver. He's going to get you 2 TDs one game, and 5 points the next. However, he can single-handedly win a game for you, and you can't ignore that this late.
3.11: Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore
Assumption: He re-signs.
Yes, Jamal's been in trouble many times this year. However, he just got out of prison, and I always thought that was detrimental to his season. Plus, Baltimore's been bad, and they can only go up from here. Good risk/reward here.
3.12 Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh
Assumptions: none
He'll probably be a very hot pick around this point in the draft, because of some runs he's been able to break this year, and the season he's had. It seems he's firmly the RB1 in Pittsburgh, and could go even higher if Bettis retires.
4.01: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy
Assumptions: None
Going into last game (he was semi-hurt for the final game), Housh was 10th in PPG this year for WRs. He's young, he's fast, he's in a passing offense, and he gets nearly as many looks as Chad. I think he's the safest pick at WR here, and could be a huge success next year.
4.02: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
Assumptions: None
I've called him the Kevan Barlow of 2005, and for good reason. He actually put up a worse season than Barlow did in 2004 this year, and deserves every piece of criticism he gets. However, he *was* hurt, which is why I'm going to push him up out of the fifth round, into this spot, because he still has potential.
4.03: Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG
Assumptions: None
He actually could be a huge steal here. Averages nearly 10 points a game as a TE, and is nearly a full point a game ahead of the third TE on the list. Not only that, he has a young QB that relies on him when things get tough, and that's always good for fantasy owners.
4.04 : Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
Assumptions: He's healthy for opening day.
This is the one I'm going to be criticized about the most, and maybe for good reason. However, this guy scares the hell out of me, and I won't take him until he becomes such a huge value that I can't resist. His injuries scare me, his unbelievable lack of production scares me, and Green Bay's lack of offensive firepower scares me. However, he will have a healthy line, a healthy WR corp, and he's THE guy in GB. That's a lot more than can be said for a lot of RBs.
4.05: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
Assumptions: He and Ricky are still battling in Miami
He's another good risk/reward guy. He's got talent, and nobody can really deny that...plus, he's on an up and coming team in the Dolphins. My biggest problem is that I don't see RW going anywhere, and that severely hurts Brown's value. And yes, he was 3.12 in the last update...but RW's performance in Week 16 shows even more that he's not going anywhere, and could take significant time.
4.06: Curtis Martin, RB, New York
Assumptions: He comes back next year, and starts.
Ugh, this guy is old. He's old, he's coming off of injury, and he was awful (27th in PPG) even when he was in there. However, you just can't forget what he did just last year, and I think that's worth taking a flier on him at this point in the draft. You don't have many backs that get goalline carries/aren't in a RBBC at this point, so he's definitely worth a short here.
4.07: Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
Assumptions: Martz does NOT return, Bruce does.
Yes, he gets hurt. Yes, he's fragile, and yes, he throws a couple of interceptions. But, when he's healthy, he's a top 3-5 QB, and you can't really argue too much with that. Martz leaving has an effect on him here, but he's still a safe choice with that offense and those weapons.
4.08: Chris Chambers, WR, Miami
Assumptions: None (but a new QB would REALLY help his position)
He's a fantastic player. Fantastic. He's never had a real QB in Miami, and that's severely hurt him. Fantasy owners got a glimpse of what he could be this year, and could be a huge steal next year if he progresses. Keep an eye on him. He has top 5 potential next year.
4.09: De'Shaun Foster, RB, Carolina:
Assumptions: He starts, but Davis is lurking.
Another sleeper pick for you RB hounds, Foster could actually go a lot higher than this, and the only reason he's this low is because of his injury risk. However, when he's in there and starting, he has 100/1-2 potential every game, and you can't ignore that, especially late in the fourth round.
4.10: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis
Assumptions: None
What's been the difference between Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison this year?
72 yards.
Yep, that's it, 72 yards.
Oh yeah, 7 TDs. That's why Wayne is always so low, and will continue to be next year. However, he could be a steal here for the simple fact that he's 6 years younger than Harrison, and Manning could be looking his way for deep/red-zone balls a little more often. Will he overtake Harrison? No way. Will he catch up a little? Yup. And if he does, his value is significant.
4.11: Ricky Williams, RB, Miami
Assumptions: He's battling with Brown in training camp.
You want risk/reward? This is it, right here. Williams could potentially take the job in Miami, and run for 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns. I see no reason why he doesn't have that potential, especially with how he's finished this year.
Then again, Brown should keep the spot since he was drafted so high, and Saban wanted him in this system.
Too risky? You decide.
4.12: Tatum Bell, RB, Denver
Assumptions: Still battling, still 10-15 carries a game.
You know, Fred Taylor looks tempting here. So does Kevan Barlow. But does anyone really have the explosiveness here that Bell has? Sure, a lot of owners got burned on him this year, and I don't think we can ever expect more than 15 carries/game as long as Mikey's in Denver. But with 15 carries a game, Bell can be a force if he continues to grow, and could be a good flier.
I'll do the fifth round when I get more time, as well. I'll probably keep going, trying to update as much as possible, so we can get a decent discussion going as the offseason rolls into town.
Also, soon there will be major movement...I just haven't had time to get to that yet. Fire away, please.
By the way, about Deuce (and Javon). I know a lot of you are probably going to wonder why he's not in here yet (and probably won't be for a while). His injury is one that's going to keep him out for a while. He's not going to be *nearly* 100% for the start of next year, if he plays at all next year. My assumption with him will be is that he plays 8 games next year, and most of those, he'll be rusty. He's going to be a 5th-6th round pick at best.
Feel free to compliment, tear apart, or laugh at any of this. It'll be good discussion at any rate. And, I know I'll probably miss something in this process. I'll edit this as people change my mind.
Players are in bold, assumptions in italics, and comments in regular type.
Edits:
Put Santana Moss in the third round. (12/24)
Moved Ronnie Brown down to the fourth. (12/24)
Moved Steve Smith down from 1.09 to 2.01 (12/29)
Moved Antonio Gates up from 2.12 to 2.08 (12/29)
Moved Ahman Green down from 3.10 to 4.04 (12/29)
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle
Assumptions: He stays in Seattle.
There's three players that can go here, obviously, but I think SA's the most consistently *great* out of the three. LJ needs to prove he can do it for more than 8 games at a time, and LT needs to stay healthy.
1.02: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City
Assumptions: OL stays together.
And LJ has the most upside of the three. He's played in limited action, granted...but he's shown he can stay healthy, he can produce, even in a limited role, and given the chance, he's great. I pick him over LT for his upside, and the fact that he's gone injury-free. He's *third* in PPG this year. He's only played full time in half of those games.
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego
Assumptions: None.
You can argue him at 1.01 or 1.02, but I'd honestly like to see a good argument for him lower than this.
1.04: Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis
Assumptions: He resigns with Indy.
Obviously, a dropoff after the first three, but I think James is clearly the best of the rest. Huge yardage nearly every game, plus around a TD a game. Can't argue with that.
1.05: Lamont Jordan, RB, Oakland
Assumptions: None
Well, this is where it gets tricky. I like Lamont here, just because he has upside, where some of the older guys should fall a little. He's very high in points this year, and if that offense gets going (meaning: they have late leads to run out the clock), he could really be huge.
1.06: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington
Assumptions: none
It seems like Washington is finally on the rise again, and Portis is extremely young still, and should be a huge part of that rise. Again, a guy with top 4 potential, and he's been solid so far this year.
1.07: Tiki Barber, RB, NY Giants
Assumptions: None
This one was tricky. I like Tiki as much as the next guy, but this is awfully high to take someone who will be 31.5 at the beginning of next year, and will have a TD vulture. However, he's been unbelievable this year, 5th in PPG (*barely* below some BIG names), and that offense should improve even more next year. I don't see how I can take him above here, because of the risk of age...but I don't see how you could take him below here, either.
1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati
Assumptions: Perry doesn't take his job (very unlikely)
Another player who's been very good this year, who's team is on the rise, and who's young enough to succeed. I think he and Portis are interchangable, I just like Portis's situation a little bit better here. Rudi's had a fantastic second half, and I don't see him slipping much into next year.
1.09: Reggie (gulp) Bush, RB/KR, Houston
Assumptions: He is drafted #1 by Houston, has a goalline vulture at *most*.
Had to put him somewhere. I can dig up the post where I could make an argument for him at 6th, but I won't do that, because there's too much risk involved. At 10th, I think the risk/reward is just right. Houston's a great situation for him. Their current RB is ranked 9th in PPG, and Reggie should be much better than Domanick. The downsides are obvious. He could be a bust, he is a kick returner (better chance of injury), and he's never carried even close to this load.
1.10: Peyton Manning, QB, Indy
Assumptions: None
This is where he should've gone this year. He's a very, very good QB, but not 1st overall good. A 30-35 TD, good yardage QB should go about here. There's something to be said for his lack of injuries as well, given what happened to this year's first round picks.
1.11: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
Assumptions: They find a warm body to coach them.
Every RB at this point in the draft is a risk. But, Jackson has serious potential, as evidenced by a few of his games this year. If he can stay healthy, and St. Louis can use him correctly, he could be a HUGE force. I like him over other backs here because of his age, and his fairly good performance this year.
1.12: Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay
Assumptions: He's healthy going into next year.
This is where people start taking more flyer picks at RB (this year: Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, etc.), and sometimes, they don't work out. However, Williams has shown a major burst at times this year when he's been healthy, and could be a top 10 back if he avoids injury, and Gruden doesn't wear him out again. I think another year could really help with that.
2.01: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina
Assumptions: None
Yep, this is where most people would have had Randy Moss for the last two years, and I think it's a fitting spot for Smith. He's first in PPG for WRs by a large margin (well, non-TO WRs.), and I don't see this offense passing the ball any less next year.
2.02: Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
Assumptions: None
This is where it gets fun. Does Willis rebound from a disappointing (but not horrible) year? He's 22nd in PPG this year, and 18th if you take away the backs that haven't played all year. He's going as RB 12. So, I'm bumping him up six slots because of his youth, the fact that Buffalo has nowhere to go but up, and hopefully, they can get him some O-line help.
2.03: Terrell Owens, WR, ???
Assumptions: He signs with a decent/good passing team.
Like Reggie Bush in the first round, I had to throw one in here to get you guys going.
Would I really draft him here? Yes.
I'll give you one question. In PPG, do you know who's leading WRs this year? No, not Boldin. No, not Steve Smith. No, not Marvin Harrison. The loudmouth himself.
He's 7 tenths of a point better than Smith per game this year. That's fantastic, considering his turmoil in Philidelphia, etc.
Remember, he's always pleasant for one year with a new team before causing problems. In a redraft, that can be gold.
2.04: Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago
Assumptions: Benson doesn't take significant time from him.
With the assumption above, Jones could be an absolute *steal* here. He's a top 10 back this year, and looks like he's finally found an offense he's comfortable in. Why do I put him here when Benson is looming? I take one look at Drew Brees...and see him still starting. Why wouldn't Jones, especially when he's doing this well?
2.05: Brian Westbrook, RB, Philidelphia
Assumptions: He's fine for 06, and so is McNabb.
There's just no arguing consistent production. The only reason he's bumped this low is because of his one-two game injury every year. Other than that, he's a top 15, top 10 back, he's that way every year, and if you grab a good first round back, you round that out with Westbrook, and you get a very solid foundation.
2.06: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincy
Assumptions: None
He very well could be the #1 QB in FF, but I'd honestly rather have Manning because he's done it for so long. Palmer is young, still growing into that offense, and has had an absolutely fantastic year. He has the weapons, and the average defense you need to make a very good FF quarterback.
2.07: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincy
Assumptions: None
I'm picking him here over Holt/Boldin, etc, just because he has less question marks. I think Boldin, Holt, and Chad are all in a tier right here, but I really like Chad more, because he's still young, and hasn't been hurt...and, he's not in a two #1 WR offense like Boldin is. If Arizona ever gets a running game, Boldin/Fitz are in trouble, fantasy wise.
2.08: Antonio Gates, TE, SD
Assumptions: None
Name the only player to outscore the 2nd place player (PPG) at his position by more than 1.2 PPG this year. That's right, it's Gates. In fact, Gates has more than *doubled* that...at 2.8 PPG better than Shockey.
As a VBD pick, he's absolutely fantastic, given that Shockey, at second, really isn't even close to what Gates can do. I think he'll go higher than this, honestly, but I'm being conservative here. Remember, he and Gonzo went in the 3rd round this year, and there wasn't nearly this difference among TEs.
2.09: Reuben Droughns, RB, Cleveland
Assumptions: None
If Thomas Jones is the Tiki Barber of 2005, who is the Tiki Barber of 2006?
Look no further.
Droughns has been very solid, in a fairly bad offense. He's been even better as the season's gone along. He's losing steam late, but I think that's a problem that can be corrected next year. Cleveland knows what they need to fix, but also knows that Droughns very well could be the center to their future. I like him as a steal in the late second/early third round.
2.10: Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis
Assumptions: None.
The injuries worry me a little bit, so he's behind Chad, but just above Boldin, because I do worry about the Arizona situation as well. However, Holt is fantastic whenever he's in the lineup (and don't get me wrong, that's very often), and he's a monster with Bulger in there. Don't let this year's stats fool you. He's been battling injuries, been battling backup QBs, and is STILL fourth in PPG among receivers. Wow.
2.11: Corey Dillon, RB, New England
Assumptions: NE doesn't get another RB.
Yes, he's an injury risk. That's taken into consideration here. However, he's also a back, when he's in the lineup, that gets you 70-80 yards, and usually a TD per game (or close to that). You really can't beat that for his draft position here.
2.12: Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona
Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically get a running game in the offseason.
He's second in PPG this year. He's even better lately, emerging as the #1 guy in Arizona, slowly but surely. Him, Holt, and Chad are pretty much all interchangable as far as I'm concerned, so I usually rank them in terms of question marks. I worry about Boldin's injury history, and Fitz's ability to keep up with him in terms of targets. So, I put him last among those three.
3.01: Marvin Harrison, QB, Indy
Assumptions: None
As has already been said in this thread, Harrison is the most consistent top 5 receiver out there. He's been top five for about five years in a row now, and is showing no signs of slowing down. The only reason I put him down here is because while the players above are on the upslopes of their carrers, Harrison will begin slightly fading soon. But, he's extremely close to all the other receivers.
3.02: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philidelphia
Assumptions: None
He's #1 overall this year in PPG by a quarterback. The guy knows how to throw, and throw well. However, I think the loss of TO will put him at a risk for next year (see: Culpepper, Daunte), and his injury will scare a few owners as well. I think this is a pretty good spot for him, given his potential, yet taking risk into account as well.
3.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona
Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically find a running game.
Like Boldin, I really like Fitzgerald. He's a fantastic player, in a fantastic offense for his skills...but the only problem remains is that he has to split receptions with Boldin. That's fine...until Arizona learns that passing 90% of the time won't win games.
3.04: Julius Jones, RB, Dallas
Assumptions: He wins the starting job in camp.
Yes, he's 24th in PPG this year, but if you look at RBs left in this draft, Jones is the only one not stuck in a bad situation. So, a lot of owners are going to need him to rebound next year. He gets the goalline carries, and if the assumption comes true, he's a good running back in a good running offense. Can't argue too much with that.
3.05: Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle
Assumptions: None
Another tier of WRs starts here, but nobody can argue with what DJax has done this year when he's healthy. He's a key part of that Seattle offense, and is good for 100/1 (at least) on several occasions throughout the year.
3.06: Mike Anderson, RB, Denver
Assumptions: He's named the starter again in Denver, splits time just like this year.
There are a lot of things working against MA that drops him this far. His age is a severe factor. Tatum Bell keeps breathing down his neck. However, I find it hard to argue with a consistently good, consistently high-scoring back in a good offense at this position in the draft.
3.07: Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta
Assumptions: None
As awful as Vick has been at times this year, Warrick Dunn has been good enough to keep that offense afloat. He doesn't get goalline carries, but he eats up yardage like Pac-Man eats those little dots. Good RB3/flex...and decent RB2 if you took a high WR or QB.
3.08: Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh
Assumptions: None
Ward has dealt with a ton of things this year...and one major thing is Big Ben's injury. He's still been able to be a top 15 WR, with flashes of brilliance at times this year, and if I'm drafting a WR this early, I want someone who I know I can rely on to put up numbers for me. There's a lot of question marks with some of these receivers, and I would take Ward above a lot of them.
3.09: Randy Moss, WR, Oakland
Assumptions: None
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I believe his ADP will be higher than this, honestly, but at 3.09, he's a potential bargain. He started out the year VERY well, which will be harped on all off-season as a reason to still rely on him. He got hurt, and then...his production went south very quickly. You want high-risk, high-reward? This is your guy.
3.10: Santana Moss, WR, Washington
Assumptions: None
Brunell loves Santana Moss, and so do fantasy owners. After a couple of weeks off the radar, he won a lot of championships with his 180/3 performance in Week 16. The reason I finally gave in and put him up here was because I've decided he's just a streaky receiver. He's going to get you 2 TDs one game, and 5 points the next. However, he can single-handedly win a game for you, and you can't ignore that this late.
3.11: Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore
Assumption: He re-signs.
Yes, Jamal's been in trouble many times this year. However, he just got out of prison, and I always thought that was detrimental to his season. Plus, Baltimore's been bad, and they can only go up from here. Good risk/reward here.
3.12 Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh
Assumptions: none
He'll probably be a very hot pick around this point in the draft, because of some runs he's been able to break this year, and the season he's had. It seems he's firmly the RB1 in Pittsburgh, and could go even higher if Bettis retires.
4.01: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy
Assumptions: None
Going into last game (he was semi-hurt for the final game), Housh was 10th in PPG this year for WRs. He's young, he's fast, he's in a passing offense, and he gets nearly as many looks as Chad. I think he's the safest pick at WR here, and could be a huge success next year.
4.02: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit
Assumptions: None
I've called him the Kevan Barlow of 2005, and for good reason. He actually put up a worse season than Barlow did in 2004 this year, and deserves every piece of criticism he gets. However, he *was* hurt, which is why I'm going to push him up out of the fifth round, into this spot, because he still has potential.
4.03: Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG
Assumptions: None
He actually could be a huge steal here. Averages nearly 10 points a game as a TE, and is nearly a full point a game ahead of the third TE on the list. Not only that, he has a young QB that relies on him when things get tough, and that's always good for fantasy owners.
4.04 : Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay
Assumptions: He's healthy for opening day.
This is the one I'm going to be criticized about the most, and maybe for good reason. However, this guy scares the hell out of me, and I won't take him until he becomes such a huge value that I can't resist. His injuries scare me, his unbelievable lack of production scares me, and Green Bay's lack of offensive firepower scares me. However, he will have a healthy line, a healthy WR corp, and he's THE guy in GB. That's a lot more than can be said for a lot of RBs.
4.05: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami
Assumptions: He and Ricky are still battling in Miami
He's another good risk/reward guy. He's got talent, and nobody can really deny that...plus, he's on an up and coming team in the Dolphins. My biggest problem is that I don't see RW going anywhere, and that severely hurts Brown's value. And yes, he was 3.12 in the last update...but RW's performance in Week 16 shows even more that he's not going anywhere, and could take significant time.
4.06: Curtis Martin, RB, New York
Assumptions: He comes back next year, and starts.
Ugh, this guy is old. He's old, he's coming off of injury, and he was awful (27th in PPG) even when he was in there. However, you just can't forget what he did just last year, and I think that's worth taking a flier on him at this point in the draft. You don't have many backs that get goalline carries/aren't in a RBBC at this point, so he's definitely worth a short here.
4.07: Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
Assumptions: Martz does NOT return, Bruce does.
Yes, he gets hurt. Yes, he's fragile, and yes, he throws a couple of interceptions. But, when he's healthy, he's a top 3-5 QB, and you can't really argue too much with that. Martz leaving has an effect on him here, but he's still a safe choice with that offense and those weapons.
4.08: Chris Chambers, WR, Miami
Assumptions: None (but a new QB would REALLY help his position)
He's a fantastic player. Fantastic. He's never had a real QB in Miami, and that's severely hurt him. Fantasy owners got a glimpse of what he could be this year, and could be a huge steal next year if he progresses. Keep an eye on him. He has top 5 potential next year.
4.09: De'Shaun Foster, RB, Carolina:
Assumptions: He starts, but Davis is lurking.
Another sleeper pick for you RB hounds, Foster could actually go a lot higher than this, and the only reason he's this low is because of his injury risk. However, when he's in there and starting, he has 100/1-2 potential every game, and you can't ignore that, especially late in the fourth round.
4.10: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis
Assumptions: None
What's been the difference between Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison this year?
72 yards.
Yep, that's it, 72 yards.
Oh yeah, 7 TDs. That's why Wayne is always so low, and will continue to be next year. However, he could be a steal here for the simple fact that he's 6 years younger than Harrison, and Manning could be looking his way for deep/red-zone balls a little more often. Will he overtake Harrison? No way. Will he catch up a little? Yup. And if he does, his value is significant.
4.11: Ricky Williams, RB, Miami
Assumptions: He's battling with Brown in training camp.
You want risk/reward? This is it, right here. Williams could potentially take the job in Miami, and run for 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns. I see no reason why he doesn't have that potential, especially with how he's finished this year.
Then again, Brown should keep the spot since he was drafted so high, and Saban wanted him in this system.
Too risky? You decide.
4.12: Tatum Bell, RB, Denver
Assumptions: Still battling, still 10-15 carries a game.
You know, Fred Taylor looks tempting here. So does Kevan Barlow. But does anyone really have the explosiveness here that Bell has? Sure, a lot of owners got burned on him this year, and I don't think we can ever expect more than 15 carries/game as long as Mikey's in Denver. But with 15 carries a game, Bell can be a force if he continues to grow, and could be a good flier.
I'll do the fifth round when I get more time, as well. I'll probably keep going, trying to update as much as possible, so we can get a decent discussion going as the offseason rolls into town.
Also, soon there will be major movement...I just haven't had time to get to that yet. Fire away, please.
By the way, about Deuce (and Javon). I know a lot of you are probably going to wonder why he's not in here yet (and probably won't be for a while). His injury is one that's going to keep him out for a while. He's not going to be *nearly* 100% for the start of next year, if he plays at all next year. My assumption with him will be is that he plays 8 games next year, and most of those, he'll be rusty. He's going to be a 5th-6th round pick at best.
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Deuce will be sitting on the board well into the third round.
1 or 2
LT = #1 in redrafts.
