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Mock 2006 FF Draft (1 Viewer)

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Standard FBG scoring, no PPR. I'll mock the first two rounds...might as well start some discussion for next year's redrafts. (Assuming a 12 team here.)

Feel free to compliment, tear apart, or laugh at any of this. It'll be good discussion at any rate. And, I know I'll probably miss something in this process. I'll edit this as people change my mind.

Players are in bold, assumptions in italics, and comments in regular type.



Edits:

Put Santana Moss in the third round. (12/24)

Moved Ronnie Brown down to the fourth. (12/24)

Moved Steve Smith down from 1.09 to 2.01 (12/29)

Moved Antonio Gates up from 2.12 to 2.08 (12/29)

Moved Ahman Green down from 3.10 to 4.04 (12/29)



1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle



Assumptions: He stays in Seattle.

There's three players that can go here, obviously, but I think SA's the most consistently *great* out of the three. LJ needs to prove he can do it for more than 8 games at a time, and LT needs to stay healthy.



1.02: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City

Assumptions: OL stays together.

And LJ has the most upside of the three. He's played in limited action, granted...but he's shown he can stay healthy, he can produce, even in a limited role, and given the chance, he's great. I pick him over LT for his upside, and the fact that he's gone injury-free. He's *third* in PPG this year. He's only played full time in half of those games.



1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego



Assumptions: None.

You can argue him at 1.01 or 1.02, but I'd honestly like to see a good argument for him lower than this.

1.04: Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis



Assumptions: He resigns with Indy.

Obviously, a dropoff after the first three, but I think James is clearly the best of the rest. Huge yardage nearly every game, plus around a TD a game. Can't argue with that.



1.05: Lamont Jordan, RB, Oakland



Assumptions: None

Well, this is where it gets tricky. I like Lamont here, just because he has upside, where some of the older guys should fall a little. He's very high in points this year, and if that offense gets going (meaning: they have late leads to run out the clock), he could really be huge.

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington



Assumptions: none

It seems like Washington is finally on the rise again, and Portis is extremely young still, and should be a huge part of that rise. Again, a guy with top 4 potential, and he's been solid so far this year.



1.07: Tiki Barber, RB, NY Giants



Assumptions: None

This one was tricky. I like Tiki as much as the next guy, but this is awfully high to take someone who will be 31.5 at the beginning of next year, and will have a TD vulture. However, he's been unbelievable this year, 5th in PPG (*barely* below some BIG names), and that offense should improve even more next year. I don't see how I can take him above here, because of the risk of age...but I don't see how you could take him below here, either.



1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati



Assumptions: Perry doesn't take his job (very unlikely)

Another player who's been very good this year, who's team is on the rise, and who's young enough to succeed. I think he and Portis are interchangable, I just like Portis's situation a little bit better here. Rudi's had a fantastic second half, and I don't see him slipping much into next year.



1.09: Reggie (gulp) Bush, RB/KR, Houston



Assumptions: He is drafted #1 by Houston, has a goalline vulture at *most*.

Had to put him somewhere. I can dig up the post where I could make an argument for him at 6th, but I won't do that, because there's too much risk involved. At 10th, I think the risk/reward is just right. Houston's a great situation for him. Their current RB is ranked 9th in PPG, and Reggie should be much better than Domanick. The downsides are obvious. He could be a bust, he is a kick returner (better chance of injury), and he's never carried even close to this load.

1.10: Peyton Manning, QB, Indy



Assumptions: None

This is where he should've gone this year. He's a very, very good QB, but not 1st overall good. A 30-35 TD, good yardage QB should go about here. There's something to be said for his lack of injuries as well, given what happened to this year's first round picks.



1.11: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis



Assumptions: They find a warm body to coach them.

Every RB at this point in the draft is a risk. But, Jackson has serious potential, as evidenced by a few of his games this year. If he can stay healthy, and St. Louis can use him correctly, he could be a HUGE force. I like him over other backs here because of his age, and his fairly good performance this year.



1.12: Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay

Assumptions: He's healthy going into next year.

This is where people start taking more flyer picks at RB (this year: Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, etc.), and sometimes, they don't work out. However, Williams has shown a major burst at times this year when he's been healthy, and could be a top 10 back if he avoids injury, and Gruden doesn't wear him out again. I think another year could really help with that.



2.01: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina



Assumptions: None

Yep, this is where most people would have had Randy Moss for the last two years, and I think it's a fitting spot for Smith. He's first in PPG for WRs by a large margin (well, non-TO WRs.), and I don't see this offense passing the ball any less next year.

2.02: Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo



Assumptions: None

This is where it gets fun. Does Willis rebound from a disappointing (but not horrible) year? He's 22nd in PPG this year, and 18th if you take away the backs that haven't played all year. He's going as RB 12. So, I'm bumping him up six slots because of his youth, the fact that Buffalo has nowhere to go but up, and hopefully, they can get him some O-line help.



2.03: Terrell Owens, WR, ???



Assumptions: He signs with a decent/good passing team.

Like Reggie Bush in the first round, I had to throw one in here to get you guys going.

Would I really draft him here? Yes.

I'll give you one question. In PPG, do you know who's leading WRs this year? No, not Boldin. No, not Steve Smith. No, not Marvin Harrison. The loudmouth himself.

He's 7 tenths of a point better than Smith per game this year. That's fantastic, considering his turmoil in Philidelphia, etc.

Remember, he's always pleasant for one year with a new team before causing problems. In a redraft, that can be gold.



2.04: Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago



Assumptions: Benson doesn't take significant time from him.

With the assumption above, Jones could be an absolute *steal* here. He's a top 10 back this year, and looks like he's finally found an offense he's comfortable in. Why do I put him here when Benson is looming? I take one look at Drew Brees...and see him still starting. Why wouldn't Jones, especially when he's doing this well?



2.05: Brian Westbrook, RB, Philidelphia



Assumptions: He's fine for 06, and so is McNabb.

There's just no arguing consistent production. The only reason he's bumped this low is because of his one-two game injury every year. Other than that, he's a top 15, top 10 back, he's that way every year, and if you grab a good first round back, you round that out with Westbrook, and you get a very solid foundation.



2.06: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincy



Assumptions: None

He very well could be the #1 QB in FF, but I'd honestly rather have Manning because he's done it for so long. Palmer is young, still growing into that offense, and has had an absolutely fantastic year. He has the weapons, and the average defense you need to make a very good FF quarterback.



2.07: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincy



Assumptions: None

I'm picking him here over Holt/Boldin, etc, just because he has less question marks. I think Boldin, Holt, and Chad are all in a tier right here, but I really like Chad more, because he's still young, and hasn't been hurt...and, he's not in a two #1 WR offense like Boldin is. If Arizona ever gets a running game, Boldin/Fitz are in trouble, fantasy wise.



2.08: Antonio Gates, TE, SD



Assumptions: None

Name the only player to outscore the 2nd place player (PPG) at his position by more than 1.2 PPG this year. That's right, it's Gates. In fact, Gates has more than *doubled* that...at 2.8 PPG better than Shockey.

As a VBD pick, he's absolutely fantastic, given that Shockey, at second, really isn't even close to what Gates can do. I think he'll go higher than this, honestly, but I'm being conservative here. Remember, he and Gonzo went in the 3rd round this year, and there wasn't nearly this difference among TEs.



2.09: Reuben Droughns, RB, Cleveland



Assumptions: None

If Thomas Jones is the Tiki Barber of 2005, who is the Tiki Barber of 2006?

Look no further.

Droughns has been very solid, in a fairly bad offense. He's been even better as the season's gone along. He's losing steam late, but I think that's a problem that can be corrected next year. Cleveland knows what they need to fix, but also knows that Droughns very well could be the center to their future. I like him as a steal in the late second/early third round.

2.10: Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis



Assumptions: None.

The injuries worry me a little bit, so he's behind Chad, but just above Boldin, because I do worry about the Arizona situation as well. However, Holt is fantastic whenever he's in the lineup (and don't get me wrong, that's very often), and he's a monster with Bulger in there. Don't let this year's stats fool you. He's been battling injuries, been battling backup QBs, and is STILL fourth in PPG among receivers. Wow.



2.11: Corey Dillon, RB, New England



Assumptions: NE doesn't get another RB.

Yes, he's an injury risk. That's taken into consideration here. However, he's also a back, when he's in the lineup, that gets you 70-80 yards, and usually a TD per game (or close to that). You really can't beat that for his draft position here.



2.12: Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona



Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically get a running game in the offseason.

He's second in PPG this year. He's even better lately, emerging as the #1 guy in Arizona, slowly but surely. Him, Holt, and Chad are pretty much all interchangable as far as I'm concerned, so I usually rank them in terms of question marks. I worry about Boldin's injury history, and Fitz's ability to keep up with him in terms of targets. So, I put him last among those three.



3.01: Marvin Harrison, QB, Indy



Assumptions: None

As has already been said in this thread, Harrison is the most consistent top 5 receiver out there. He's been top five for about five years in a row now, and is showing no signs of slowing down. The only reason I put him down here is because while the players above are on the upslopes of their carrers, Harrison will begin slightly fading soon. But, he's extremely close to all the other receivers.

3.02: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philidelphia

Assumptions: None

He's #1 overall this year in PPG by a quarterback. The guy knows how to throw, and throw well. However, I think the loss of TO will put him at a risk for next year (see: Culpepper, Daunte), and his injury will scare a few owners as well. I think this is a pretty good spot for him, given his potential, yet taking risk into account as well.

3.03: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona



Assumptions: Arizona doesn't magically find a running game.

Like Boldin, I really like Fitzgerald. He's a fantastic player, in a fantastic offense for his skills...but the only problem remains is that he has to split receptions with Boldin. That's fine...until Arizona learns that passing 90% of the time won't win games.



3.04: Julius Jones, RB, Dallas



Assumptions: He wins the starting job in camp.

Yes, he's 24th in PPG this year, but if you look at RBs left in this draft, Jones is the only one not stuck in a bad situation. So, a lot of owners are going to need him to rebound next year. He gets the goalline carries, and if the assumption comes true, he's a good running back in a good running offense. Can't argue too much with that.

3.05: Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle



Assumptions: None

Another tier of WRs starts here, but nobody can argue with what DJax has done this year when he's healthy. He's a key part of that Seattle offense, and is good for 100/1 (at least) on several occasions throughout the year.



3.06: Mike Anderson, RB, Denver

Assumptions: He's named the starter again in Denver, splits time just like this year.

There are a lot of things working against MA that drops him this far. His age is a severe factor. Tatum Bell keeps breathing down his neck. However, I find it hard to argue with a consistently good, consistently high-scoring back in a good offense at this position in the draft.



3.07: Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta



Assumptions: None

As awful as Vick has been at times this year, Warrick Dunn has been good enough to keep that offense afloat. He doesn't get goalline carries, but he eats up yardage like Pac-Man eats those little dots. Good RB3/flex...and decent RB2 if you took a high WR or QB.



3.08: Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh



Assumptions: None

Ward has dealt with a ton of things this year...and one major thing is Big Ben's injury. He's still been able to be a top 15 WR, with flashes of brilliance at times this year, and if I'm drafting a WR this early, I want someone who I know I can rely on to put up numbers for me. There's a lot of question marks with some of these receivers, and I would take Ward above a lot of them.



3.09: Randy Moss, WR, Oakland

Assumptions: None

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I believe his ADP will be higher than this, honestly, but at 3.09, he's a potential bargain. He started out the year VERY well, which will be harped on all off-season as a reason to still rely on him. He got hurt, and then...his production went south very quickly. You want high-risk, high-reward? This is your guy.



3.10: Santana Moss, WR, Washington



Assumptions: None

Brunell loves Santana Moss, and so do fantasy owners. After a couple of weeks off the radar, he won a lot of championships with his 180/3 performance in Week 16. The reason I finally gave in and put him up here was because I've decided he's just a streaky receiver. He's going to get you 2 TDs one game, and 5 points the next. However, he can single-handedly win a game for you, and you can't ignore that this late.

3.11: Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore

Assumption: He re-signs.

Yes, Jamal's been in trouble many times this year. However, he just got out of prison, and I always thought that was detrimental to his season. Plus, Baltimore's been bad, and they can only go up from here. Good risk/reward here.

3.12 Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh

Assumptions: none

He'll probably be a very hot pick around this point in the draft, because of some runs he's been able to break this year, and the season he's had. It seems he's firmly the RB1 in Pittsburgh, and could go even higher if Bettis retires.

4.01: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincy

Assumptions: None

Going into last game (he was semi-hurt for the final game), Housh was 10th in PPG this year for WRs. He's young, he's fast, he's in a passing offense, and he gets nearly as many looks as Chad. I think he's the safest pick at WR here, and could be a huge success next year.

4.02: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit

Assumptions: None

I've called him the Kevan Barlow of 2005, and for good reason. He actually put up a worse season than Barlow did in 2004 this year, and deserves every piece of criticism he gets. However, he *was* hurt, which is why I'm going to push him up out of the fifth round, into this spot, because he still has potential.



4.03: Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG



Assumptions: None

He actually could be a huge steal here. Averages nearly 10 points a game as a TE, and is nearly a full point a game ahead of the third TE on the list. Not only that, he has a young QB that relies on him when things get tough, and that's always good for fantasy owners.



4.04 : Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay



Assumptions: He's healthy for opening day.

This is the one I'm going to be criticized about the most, and maybe for good reason. However, this guy scares the hell out of me, and I won't take him until he becomes such a huge value that I can't resist. His injuries scare me, his unbelievable lack of production scares me, and Green Bay's lack of offensive firepower scares me. However, he will have a healthy line, a healthy WR corp, and he's THE guy in GB. That's a lot more than can be said for a lot of RBs.

4.05: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami



Assumptions: He and Ricky are still battling in Miami

He's another good risk/reward guy. He's got talent, and nobody can really deny that...plus, he's on an up and coming team in the Dolphins. My biggest problem is that I don't see RW going anywhere, and that severely hurts Brown's value. And yes, he was 3.12 in the last update...but RW's performance in Week 16 shows even more that he's not going anywhere, and could take significant time.



4.06: Curtis Martin, RB, New York



Assumptions: He comes back next year, and starts.

Ugh, this guy is old. He's old, he's coming off of injury, and he was awful (27th in PPG) even when he was in there. However, you just can't forget what he did just last year, and I think that's worth taking a flier on him at this point in the draft. You don't have many backs that get goalline carries/aren't in a RBBC at this point, so he's definitely worth a short here.

4.07: Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis



Assumptions: Martz does NOT return, Bruce does.

Yes, he gets hurt. Yes, he's fragile, and yes, he throws a couple of interceptions. But, when he's healthy, he's a top 3-5 QB, and you can't really argue too much with that. Martz leaving has an effect on him here, but he's still a safe choice with that offense and those weapons.



4.08: Chris Chambers, WR, Miami



Assumptions: None (but a new QB would REALLY help his position)

He's a fantastic player. Fantastic. He's never had a real QB in Miami, and that's severely hurt him. Fantasy owners got a glimpse of what he could be this year, and could be a huge steal next year if he progresses. Keep an eye on him. He has top 5 potential next year.



4.09: De'Shaun Foster, RB, Carolina:

Assumptions: He starts, but Davis is lurking.

Another sleeper pick for you RB hounds, Foster could actually go a lot higher than this, and the only reason he's this low is because of his injury risk. However, when he's in there and starting, he has 100/1-2 potential every game, and you can't ignore that, especially late in the fourth round.



4.10: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis



Assumptions: None

What's been the difference between Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison this year?

72 yards.

Yep, that's it, 72 yards.

Oh yeah, 7 TDs. That's why Wayne is always so low, and will continue to be next year. However, he could be a steal here for the simple fact that he's 6 years younger than Harrison, and Manning could be looking his way for deep/red-zone balls a little more often. Will he overtake Harrison? No way. Will he catch up a little? Yup. And if he does, his value is significant.



4.11: Ricky Williams, RB, Miami



Assumptions: He's battling with Brown in training camp.

You want risk/reward? This is it, right here. Williams could potentially take the job in Miami, and run for 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns. I see no reason why he doesn't have that potential, especially with how he's finished this year.

Then again, Brown should keep the spot since he was drafted so high, and Saban wanted him in this system.

Too risky? You decide.



4.12: Tatum Bell, RB, Denver



Assumptions: Still battling, still 10-15 carries a game.

You know, Fred Taylor looks tempting here. So does Kevan Barlow. But does anyone really have the explosiveness here that Bell has? Sure, a lot of owners got burned on him this year, and I don't think we can ever expect more than 15 carries/game as long as Mikey's in Denver. But with 15 carries a game, Bell can be a force if he continues to grow, and could be a good flier.



I'll do the fifth round when I get more time, as well. I'll probably keep going, trying to update as much as possible, so we can get a decent discussion going as the offseason rolls into town.

Also, soon there will be major movement...I just haven't had time to get to that yet. Fire away, please.



By the way, about Deuce (and Javon). I know a lot of you are probably going to wonder why he's not in here yet (and probably won't be for a while). His injury is one that's going to keep him out for a while. He's not going to be *nearly* 100% for the start of next year, if he plays at all next year. My assumption with him will be is that he plays 8 games next year, and most of those, he'll be rusty. He's going to be a 5th-6th round pick at best.

 
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dickey moe

Fingerpicker
Can't argue with the order of your first four picks.1.05 Barber -- despite his age, his proven consistency justifies this position1.06 Jordan -- upside is there, hope he can stay healthy1.07 Portis -- he's back, could have huge year next year1.08 Rudi Johnson -- same as what I said about Barber, plus he's younger1.09 Manning -- same as what I said about Barber1.10 Steven Jackson -- a new coach should help1.11 Insert Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, and Fitzgerald or Boldin here1.12 Deuce McCallister -- the forgotten man, plus next year's team should have new coach, new QB, may be forced to run more

 

lebowski

Footballguy
I agree with you...it gets a bit tricky at #5. I personally probably would put Tiki Barber at #5. He a is definately a BAMF (for you Dane Cook fans out there). I know his age is an issue, but it doesn't seem like he has slowed down AT ALL this year. All in all, I would say this is a good 1st effort. (Personally I also would not take Manning in the first round next year.) I really hope I get a 1-3 pick next year. Edge is hands down #4, but I think it is a pretty big drop from 3 to 4.

 

Dynasty

Footballguy
1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego



Assumptions: None.
I think the only thing which should stop you from drafting LT2 at 1.01 is health concerns. Only minor injuries have slowed him down at all in the past two seasons.
 

Blackjacks

Footballguy
I like Bush, I really do, but there is no way I would take him that high in a redraft league. Maybe if it were I dynasty but I would still find it hard to take him in the top ten especially if he was picked by Houston.

 

Pack43

Footballguy
1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB, SeattleAssumptions: He stays in Seattle.There's three players that can go here, obviously, but I think SA's the most consistently *great* out of the three. LJ needs to prove he can do it for more than 8 games at a time, and LT needs to stay healthy.
Has LT ever missed a game due to injury? Wasn't week 17 last year after they had clinched the only game he hasn't played in?
 

beto

Footballguy
wow, you are really drinking the Bush kool-aidI like your 1st 3.I like Barber over Edge, then Jordan, Portis, Rudi all look to be in good situations in '06.After that it's not clear. Manning, Palmer and Brady finished close enough together so Manning may not be a slam dunk but he's a nice safe 1st round pick.A case could be made for taking Gates.McGahee and McAllister had down years but could be considered in the 1st round.Stephen Jackson, Caddy and Westbrook would be strong picks.The the WRs of Steve Smith, Moss, TO, Chad, Boldin and Harrison have to be considered.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
I like Bush, I really do, but there is no way I would take him that high in a redraft league. Maybe if it were I dynasty but I would still find it hard to take him in the top ten especially if he was picked by Houston.
Here's my original post on why Bush could be #6 overall (not that I'd draft him there).


Here's the argument that can be made for Bush at #6 overall (assuming he goes to Houston):

1) Domanick Davis is the #7 RB in PPG, if you take away Priest Holmes already. Bush could be than Davis, so he could quite possibly be #6.

2) There's too many question marks with the RBs above.

3) The Houston system is built for Bush. It's a run first, run second, dump off to RB third system, and that's why DD has succeeded. Imagine a stud RB in that backfield...with possible improvements at OL by trading Domanick.

Anyway, let's hope that starts some discussion, at least.
By the way, round 2 will be up tomorrow.
 

On The Rocks

Evil Conservative
1.12 Deuce McCallister -- the forgotten man, plus next year's team should have new coach, new QB, may be forced to run more
:confused: Deuce will be sitting on the board well into the third round.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
Thumb up / thumb down isn't a judgment on your pick, just where I'd rank them (up or down)

1.01: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle

1.02: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City

1.03: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego :thumbup: 1 or 2

1.04: Edgerrin James, RB, Indianapolis

1.05: Lamont Jordan, RB, Oakland :thumbdown:

1.06: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington :thumbup:

1.07: Tiki Barber, RB, NY Giants

1.08: Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati :thumbdown:

1.09: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina :thumbdown:

1.10: Reggie (gulp) Bush, RB/KR, Houston :thumbdown:

1.11: Peyton Manning, QB, Indy :thumbdown:

1.12: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis :thumbup:
I'd take SJax before any WR or QB, maybe top 7.Perry will take more from Rudi than anyone will from Jackson.

Jordan is a killer in PPR, but new coach, new QB = lower performance IMO.

Bush in Houston = 2nd round pick, unless Dom leaves.

Good stuff, just a few points of disagreement.

 

Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
I'd add round two to the top of this thread by editing your first post. (Instead of starting a new thread, or putting round two mid-way through this one. Though you could put it in a mid-way post also.)May have been what you were planning to do, but it will be easier to find if all in one place and if all the info is at the top of the thread. My two cents.

 

culdeus

Have good
I agree with dropping LT to 3. The guy is wearing down. He got so many carries in college and now with SD that it's starting to show. He'll have some great games, but look to be dissapointed in the playoffs just like this year.

 

Crippler

IBL Representative
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.

 

Texasmouth

Footballguy
Bush in the first round? That is a joke. I hope people in my league are dumb enough to do that. I admit the guy is fast and exciting and all of that stuff but every draft expert I have read including Mel Kiper has said that he is not going to be an every down back. He isn't even an every down back now! I bet he doesn't sniff 1,000 yards his first season. If he does I will change my user name to the Reggie Bush fan Club! I am not so sure about LJ over LT only because Holmes will be back next year. Even if he isn't the starter, he will still be in there and he will still be stealing carries. LJ is probably the best back in football right now in my opinion though. If his situation is cleared up I would have no problem even drafting him over SA. I do like that he is still young and he plays behind a massive O-line with a veteran QB. If you are having concerns about the health of LT you better have the same concerns about SA. He has been in the league longer and was just as abused in college. There are too many other factors. I really like Lamont Jordan in a PPR league becuase he catches a lot of passes. Depending on who the QB is though, his stock could take a huge hit. I think Tiki Barber is a clear cut #4 back. I know I will never undervalue the guy again. He is a star, I admit it now. I admit my stupidity in overlooking him again this year. Wherever Edge lands will make a huge fantasy impact as well. I think Droughns finds his way into the late first round, early second round. With all of the RBBC going on now, it is going to drive the value of stud running backs up even further. How will some young players bounce back this year? Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Steven Jackson....etc. Depending on who the coach is in Detroit and St Louis, those guys could be first round picks as well. With all the coaching changes, these mock drafts are going to change every ten minutes! I love it!

 

Texasmouth

Footballguy
1.12 Deuce McCallister -- the forgotten man, plus next year's team should have new coach, new QB, may be forced to run more
:confused: Deuce will be sitting on the board well into the third round.
I have been burned by this guy two seasons in a row. He will never step foot onto my roster again even if they dig up Vince Lombardi and make him the coach. New Orleans is going to suck even worse next year, I don't care who the coach is. No free agent is going to want to go to that team because they have no home. They wont be back in the Super Dome next year. Where the hell would the free agents live? Who wants to live in New Orleans right now? The place is a mess. This team will be lucky to win 2 games next season. :bag:
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
LT is right there among the top 3. They're interchangable, and the two above him (assuming my assumptions above), have a little more value than LT in my opinion. That's all. I'm not "dissing" LT. I'd be VERY happy with any one of the top three picks next year.
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Bush in Houston = 2nd round pick, unless Dom leaves.
That was part of my assumptions, given above.Everyone that's responded to Bush at 1.10 is arguing that he won't be an every down back. I'm assuming he is (at worst, a goalline vulture). So, if he won't be an every down back, I won't rank him that high. Period.

Edit: Working on the second round now, so that should be up shortly for even more debate. I like the arguments here, but I'm undecided on how I'm going to move my original projections. I'm thinking about one major move, though, but that's it so far.

 
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coolnerd

Footballguy
Bush in Houston = 2nd round pick, unless Dom leaves.
That was part of my assumptions, given above.Everyone that's responded to Bush at 1.10 is arguing that he won't be an every down back. I'm assuming he is (at worst, a goalline vulture). So, if he won't be an every down back, I won't rank him that high. Period.
Hasn't Westbrook been in the top 10-12 for the last two maybe even three years. If Bush is the same type of back then that expectation is not unrealistic, except for the fact that Bush will be a rookie and maybe with a team which does not use him as well as the Eagles use Westbrooks.
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Bush in Houston = 2nd round pick, unless Dom leaves.
That was part of my assumptions, given above.Everyone that's responded to Bush at 1.10 is arguing that he won't be an every down back. I'm assuming he is (at worst, a goalline vulture). So, if he won't be an every down back, I won't rank him that high. Period.
Hasn't Westbrook been in the top 10-12 for the last two maybe even three years. If Bush is the same type of back then that expectation is not unrealistic, except for the fact that Bush will be a rookie and maybe with a team which does not use him as well as the Eagles use Westbrooks.
I like the comparison, first of all.Secondly, I don't see how Houston won't use him as well as Philidelphia. He's so hyped, that Houston will feel like they'll have to center their offense around him...and remember, Houston's offense is fairly good when it comes to the run, and RB passes.

 

culdeus

Have good
Second round is up. Enjoy.

Third round will come when I get time.
Droughns a bit early I think. If anything that will exceed his ADP by at least the turn of that draft spot allowing that particular person to get him in the third me thinks. I was thinking that you would put Gates higher. Maybe as high as 15th overall. In certain scoring systems that weigh TE's heavy (8td and 1/8yds) he could go in the first round because on VBD there is noone even close to giving that much dropoff from one to two.

 

kal-el

Footballguy
Random thoughts on the second round:I'd take Chad Johnson over Steve Smith. I just don't think it's sustainable for Smith to make up such a large % of the passing game.I seem to recall some questions as to whether Westbrook will be 100% for the start of the next season. I think he has to drop into the third round.I don't like Boldin this high because of (1) QB questions and (2) Larry Fitzgerald.Depending in part on what happens with Ricky, I like Ronnie Brown in the second round. He's talented, he can catch the ball, and Saban is going to have that team on the upswing. Assumption: Miami gets a solid QB for next season.Funny how much of the second round has turned over, with J. Jones, K. Jones, J. Lewis, etc. dropping based on lack of performance this year.

 

stevec

Footballguy
Hasn't Westbrook been in the top 10-12 for the last two maybe even three years. If Bush is the same type of back then that expectation is not unrealistic, except for the fact that Bush will be a rookie and maybe with a team which does not use him as well as the Eagles use Westbrooks.
I like the comparison, first of all.Secondly, I don't see how Houston won't use him as well as Philidelphia. He's so hyped, that Houston will feel like they'll have to center their offense around him...and remember, Houston's offense is fairly good when it comes to the run, and RB passes.
Houston won't use Bush (or Westbrook) as well because they aren't as well coached.
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Hasn't Westbrook been in the top 10-12 for the last two maybe even three years. If Bush is the same type of back then that expectation is not unrealistic, except for the fact that Bush will be a rookie and maybe with a team which does not use him as well as the Eagles use Westbrooks.
I like the comparison, first of all.Secondly, I don't see how Houston won't use him as well as Philidelphia. He's so hyped, that Houston will feel like they'll have to center their offense around him...and remember, Houston's offense is fairly good when it comes to the run, and RB passes.
Houston won't use Bush (or Westbrook) as well because they aren't as well coached.
I don't think it's good/bad coaching, just what Houston does.They rely *heavily* on the running back. DD isn't that great, but he's 9th in PPG among RBs this year.

Get someone in there that can break one every once in a while, and you have a fantastic fit...not to mention Bush's pass-catching abilities.

 

stevec

Footballguy
We're going to have to see how Owens shakes out regarding a new team. Personally, I'd take Johnson over him, simply because he's much safer.Hey, look who didn't make the top 5 WR's again in a mock: Marvin Harrison. Can someone please explain what I'm missing here:

Code:
Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1996          17            21             541997           7            25             661998           0            31             811999         119             1              72000         115             2              72001         114             1              52002         119             1              62003          83             5             152004          74             5             172005          79             2              9
 
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Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
We're going to have to see how Owens shakes out regarding a new team. Personally, I'd take Johnson over him, simply because he's much safer.

Hey, look who didn't make the top 5 WR's again in a mock: Marvin Harrison. Can someone please explain what I'm missing here:

Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1996 17 21 541997 7 25 661998 0 31 811999 119 1 72000 115 2 72001 114 1 52002 119 1 62003 83 5 152004 74 5 172005 79 2 9
Well, he sucked in 1997 :) Honestly? He's right there with the others (Holt, Boldin, Chad). I just would rather have the younger guys...

However...if Wayne goes elsewhere (my assumption for Harrison is that Wayne resigns), then Harrison becomes a mid-second round pick, right before Chad. So, he'd be the 3rd WR off the board.

And on Owens, he's a risk, to be sure...but he's the best receiver in FF when he's playing, he has adjusted to new teams well in the past, and always has a year where he plays nice. I don't see him as a big of a risk as many people might.

 

perry147

Footballguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LT = #1 in redrafts.

 

fruity pebbles

Footballguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
 
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Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LT = #1 in redrafts.
Why?The only reason he's even second in PPG this year, is because LJ was getting very limited PT before taking over. Basically, LT is third in PPG this year, behind LJ and SA. Alexander is a full 1.6 points (about six percent) ahead of LT in PPG this year.

Last year, LT was 2nd in PPG behind Priest, and 0.01 PPG ahead of Alexander (but played one fewer game).

LT's gotten hurt the past two years (Alexander, LJ have not), and defenses have solved LT at times this year.

So, why is LT automatic?

I'm not saying LT is much below SA or LJ. You can make a decent case for all three. However, it's not even close to automatic, and I personally like the other two better, given the stats this year, last year, and their situations going into next year.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
What running backs, was my question.Dillon is a huge injury risk, every year. Droughns has outscored him by a ton this year.

Davis, my assumption, has him out of the Houston job next year. If you assume Davis starts full time in Houston, of course he's ahead here.

Ronnie Brown's situation scares me. Ricky is slowly taking back over there.

Kevin Jones is *thirty-fourth* in RB PPG this year. Thirty fourth! Remember, Kevan Barlow, the huge 2004 bust, was 32nd in 2004.

Jamal Lewis is 30th in PPG this year, and has gone down *significantly* every year since his fantastic 2003 season.

Droughns=1400 yards, consistent, injury-free, going up in his career, and doesn't have any of the question marks the above backs have.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Keys

Come on man, Reggie Bush that high?
Yep.Remember, my assumptions have to be there. Goalline vulture at most. If there's a 3rd down back, or he's in a RBBC, then of course he's a lot lower.

However...Houston's a *great* situation for him. DD is a very average back putting up fantastic FF numbers in that offense. Now, put just a *good* back in there. It's a pretty good OL for running (obviously, the pass blocking is awful), and without a decent passing game, Bush goes into a run first, run second, dump off to the star RB third offense.

That's fantastic for FF value, and that's if Bush is *just* a slightly above-average back.

 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Random thoughts on the second round:

I'd take Chad Johnson over Steve Smith. I just don't think it's sustainable for Smith to make up such a large % of the passing game.

I seem to recall some questions as to whether Westbrook will be 100% for the start of the next season. I think he has to drop into the third round.

I don't like Boldin this high because of (1) QB questions and (2) Larry Fitzgerald.

Depending in part on what happens with Ricky, I like Ronnie Brown in the second round. He's talented, he can catch the ball, and Saban is going to have that team on the upswing. Assumption: Miami gets a solid QB for next season.

Funny how much of the second round has turned over, with J. Jones, K. Jones, J. Lewis, etc. dropping based on lack of performance this year.
I disagree. The #1 WR in Carolina has been in the top 3 in scoring the past 3 years (I think).
 

perry147

Footballguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LT = #1 in redrafts.
Why?The only reason he's even second in PPG this year, is because LJ was getting very limited PT before taking over. Basically, LT is third in PPG this year, behind LJ and SA. Alexander is a full 1.6 points (about six percent) ahead of LT in PPG this year.

Last year, LT was 2nd in PPG behind Priest, and 0.01 PPG ahead of Alexander (but played one fewer game).

LT's gotten hurt the past two years (Alexander, LJ have not), and defenses have solved LT at times this year.

So, why is LT automatic?

I'm not saying LT is much below SA or LJ. You can make a decent case for all three. However, it's not even close to automatic, and I personally like the other two better, given the stats this year, last year, and their situations going into next year.
LJ has not had the full load of starting an entire year. That is the one major question I have against him. He is dominate when he plays.So really to me it is between SA and LT.

I choose LT because he is a little bit younger and feel that the offense is more balanced now with Brees.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LT = #1 in redrafts.
Why?The only reason he's even second in PPG this year, is because LJ was getting very limited PT before taking over. Basically, LT is third in PPG this year, behind LJ and SA. Alexander is a full 1.6 points (about six percent) ahead of LT in PPG this year.

Last year, LT was 2nd in PPG behind Priest, and 0.01 PPG ahead of Alexander (but played one fewer game).

LT's gotten hurt the past two years (Alexander, LJ have not), and defenses have solved LT at times this year.

So, why is LT automatic?

I'm not saying LT is much below SA or LJ. You can make a decent case for all three. However, it's not even close to automatic, and I personally like the other two better, given the stats this year, last year, and their situations going into next year.
LJ has not had the full load of starting an entire year. That is the one major question I have against him. He is dominate when he plays.So really to me it is between SA and LT.

I choose LT because he is a little bit younger and feel that the offense is more balanced now with Brees.
And that's a fair argument. Like I said, you can make a good one for all three.But, saying LT's an indisputable #1 isn't correct, IMO. There's no automatic #1 this year.

 

fruity pebbles

Footballguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
What running backs, was my question.Dillon is a huge injury risk, every year. Droughns has outscored him by a ton this year.

Davis, my assumption, has him out of the Houston job next year. If you assume Davis starts full time in Houston, of course he's ahead here.

Ronnie Brown's situation scares me. Ricky is slowly taking back over there.

Kevin Jones is *thirty-fourth* in RB PPG this year. Thirty fourth! Remember, Kevan Barlow, the huge 2004 bust, was 32nd in 2004.

Jamal Lewis is 30th in PPG this year, and has gone down *significantly* every year since his fantastic 2003 season.

Droughns=1400 yards, consistent, injury-free, going up in his career, and doesn't have any of the question marks the above backs have.
Who cares what they've done this year. It's what you think they'll do next year that matters. Droughns is a flat out average talent at runningback.
 

WarRedbirds

Footballguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles.  This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LJ = #1 in redrafts.
Fixed...
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
What running backs, was my question.Dillon is a huge injury risk, every year. Droughns has outscored him by a ton this year.

Davis, my assumption, has him out of the Houston job next year. If you assume Davis starts full time in Houston, of course he's ahead here.

Ronnie Brown's situation scares me. Ricky is slowly taking back over there.

Kevin Jones is *thirty-fourth* in RB PPG this year. Thirty fourth! Remember, Kevan Barlow, the huge 2004 bust, was 32nd in 2004.

Jamal Lewis is 30th in PPG this year, and has gone down *significantly* every year since his fantastic 2003 season.

Droughns=1400 yards, consistent, injury-free, going up in his career, and doesn't have any of the question marks the above backs have.
Who cares what they've done this year. It's what you think they'll do next year that matters. Droughns is a flat out average talent at runningback.
Average talents don't rush for 1300-1400 yards.Plus, if you're not going to look at past statistics at all, how are you going to determine who's going to be good next year?

 

fruity pebbles

Footballguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
What running backs, was my question.Dillon is a huge injury risk, every year. Droughns has outscored him by a ton this year.

Davis, my assumption, has him out of the Houston job next year. If you assume Davis starts full time in Houston, of course he's ahead here.

Ronnie Brown's situation scares me. Ricky is slowly taking back over there.

Kevin Jones is *thirty-fourth* in RB PPG this year. Thirty fourth! Remember, Kevan Barlow, the huge 2004 bust, was 32nd in 2004.

Jamal Lewis is 30th in PPG this year, and has gone down *significantly* every year since his fantastic 2003 season.

Droughns=1400 yards, consistent, injury-free, going up in his career, and doesn't have any of the question marks the above backs have.
Who cares what they've done this year. It's what you think they'll do next year that matters. Droughns is a flat out average talent at runningback.
Average talents don't rush for 1300-1400 yards.Plus, if you're not going to look at past statistics at all, how are you going to determine who's going to be good next year?
Sure they do if they get enough carries. You seem to like to tout his yardage but never mention the number of TDs he has. Last year's stats are only one piece in assessing players for next year IMO.
 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
I stopped reading after I saw Droughns at 2.08
What RB would you rather have that's still on the board?There's not much left at that point, honestly. Droughns isn't in a RBBC, is consistent, isn't an injury risk, and will most likely get 1400 yards this year.

And sorry, the smartass comments really don't get to me, so if you're fishing, I'd go elsewhere. :)
Holt, Gates, Fitzgerald, Dom Davis, Dillon, Deuce, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, maybe Jamal, probably a few others.
What running backs, was my question.Dillon is a huge injury risk, every year. Droughns has outscored him by a ton this year.

Davis, my assumption, has him out of the Houston job next year. If you assume Davis starts full time in Houston, of course he's ahead here.

Ronnie Brown's situation scares me. Ricky is slowly taking back over there.

Kevin Jones is *thirty-fourth* in RB PPG this year. Thirty fourth! Remember, Kevan Barlow, the huge 2004 bust, was 32nd in 2004.

Jamal Lewis is 30th in PPG this year, and has gone down *significantly* every year since his fantastic 2003 season.

Droughns=1400 yards, consistent, injury-free, going up in his career, and doesn't have any of the question marks the above backs have.
Who cares what they've done this year. It's what you think they'll do next year that matters. Droughns is a flat out average talent at runningback.
Average talents don't rush for 1300-1400 yards.Plus, if you're not going to look at past statistics at all, how are you going to determine who's going to be good next year?
Sure they do if they get enough carries. You seem to like to tout his yardage but never mention the number of TDs he has. Last year's stats are only one piece in assessing players for next year IMO.
Nope, because that's not his strength. He doesn't score many TDs. Fine. But he has outscored all but 14 RBs this year.
 

Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
This is a good thread.Nice coupling with the polls for dynasty backs.Thanks. Nice concise analysis for each player.It's too late to do anything about it now! But it's nice to take a look at rosters and favorite and see what their value might be next year, based on another's opinions and good analysis.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
It's too late to do anything about it now! But it's nice to take a look at rosters and favorite and see what their value might be next year, based on another's opinions and good analysis.
My opinion is, the earlier we start, the better handle we have on next year.Sure, things are going to change over the offseason...but if we can start discussing it now, it makes *future* discussions all the more informative.

 

cstu

Footballguy
1.12 Deuce McCallister -- the forgotten man, plus next year's team should have new coach, new QB, may be forced to run more
:confused: Deuce will be sitting on the board well into the third round.
I have been burned by this guy two seasons in a row. He will never step foot onto my roster again even if they dig up Vince Lombardi and make him the coach. New Orleans is going to suck even worse next year, I don't care who the coach is. No free agent is going to want to go to that team because they have no home. They wont be back in the Super Dome next year. Where the hell would the free agents live? Who wants to live in New Orleans right now? The place is a mess. This team will be lucky to win 2 games next season. :bag:
Deuce has been a bust even when healthy so I have no idea why you would want to risk anything more than a late 2nd on him.
 

cstu

Footballguy
Your saying LT fades because of one year. Last year he was a monster down the stretch and helped me to 2 league titles. This statement of him fading has absolutely zero basis at this point. I think the rib injury and teams stacking the line against him is more the reason.
:goodposting: LT = #1 in redrafts.
Why?The only reason he's even second in PPG this year, is because LJ was getting very limited PT before taking over. Basically, LT is third in PPG this year, behind LJ and SA. Alexander is a full 1.6 points (about six percent) ahead of LT in PPG this year.

Last year, LT was 2nd in PPG behind Priest, and 0.01 PPG ahead of Alexander (but played one fewer game).

LT's gotten hurt the past two years (Alexander, LJ have not), and defenses have solved LT at times this year.

So, why is LT automatic?

I'm not saying LT is much below SA or LJ. You can make a decent case for all three. However, it's not even close to automatic, and I personally like the other two better, given the stats this year, last year, and their situations going into next year.
LJ has not had the full load of starting an entire year. That is the one major question I have against him. He is dominate when he plays.So really to me it is between SA and LT.

I choose LT because he is a little bit younger and feel that the offense is more balanced now with Brees.
And that's a fair argument. Like I said, you can make a good one for all three.But, saying LT's an indisputable #1 isn't correct, IMO. There's no automatic #1 this year.
I'm a big LT supporter, but to ignore the situations LJ and SA are in (assuming they stay the same) is foolish. A lot depends on what happens with the OL's of all 3 teams, but right now I'd probably draft LT #3.
 

cstu

Footballguy
Random thoughts on the second round:

I'd take Chad Johnson over Steve Smith. I just don't think it's sustainable for Smith to make up such a large % of the passing game.

I seem to recall some questions as to whether Westbrook will be 100% for the start of the next season. I think he has to drop into the third round.

I don't like Boldin this high because of (1) QB questions and (2) Larry Fitzgerald.

Depending in part on what happens with Ricky, I like Ronnie Brown in the second round. He's talented, he can catch the ball, and Saban is going to have that team on the upswing. Assumption: Miami gets a solid QB for next season.

Funny how much of the second round has turned over, with J. Jones, K. Jones, J. Lewis, etc. dropping based on lack of performance this year.
I disagree. The #1 WR in Carolina has been in the top 3 in scoring the past 3 years (I think).
Nothing against Smith and his situation, but you're likely to be disappointed taking a WR in the 1st round who is having his first year as a top 10 WR. CJ and Holt have proven over and over they can be consistent scorers. Holt should be the sure #1 WR off the board since he'll become even more of a target as Bruce slows down and I'm predicting him to have a HUGE 2006.
 

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