BTW, here's last year's thread:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=buckets
Good stuff, MoP. Always nice to see people put their necks out there. I disagree on some, and agree on others.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson: Bad toe, hurt in other places, shell of what he once was, and he finished what, 23rd last year? Oh, no he actually finished 5th. I can’t wait to watch him silence the critics this year and easily coast into the top5 for the 7th time in his career. His worst finish was 7th in his career. Where is the safe pick in the top5? You’re looking at it, all you can eat baby.
7. Steve Slaton: The thing that keeps him in the mix for top 10 IMO is he has an awful nice passing attack to take pressure of him running the ball. If you are a defense the first thing you do is try and stop Andre Johnson, then Owen Daniels, let’s face it…Slaton is never going to see an 8 man front, rarely a 7 man front with the passing game in place there. I am not a huge Slaton fan going into year 2 and think he could easily finish out of the top10 but he does play on a strong offense right now.
8. Brian Westbrook: Weeks 3,4,6, and 7(bye) made it tough early in the season for many owners. Weeks 10, 11, 12, 15, and 17 were nothing to write home about either…yet he finished 8th last year in PPR leagues. Gotta believe he will be healthier this year and perhaps a breather once in awhile will serve him well. This guy is going in the 2nd rounds of a lot of drafts. I don’t see the downside here as long as you grab McCoy at a reasonable place which is likely in rounds 9-10 or later in many drafts. Not a lot of insurance required for a guy that has had top5 seasons.
I would rather be a year early on getting rid of a guy than a year late. I think LT will get his, but I also think that this Chargers team has more weapons. Sproles, VJax, Chambers and Rivers has come into his own. A lower ceiling than the guys drafted around him, to my mind. I am a big Slaton guy this year, and I really wasn't last year. Completely whiffed. But in a PPR league, I like him better than all except the big 3. I don't see any backs he needs to be worried about, I think the Texans only have guys that can spell him, there aren't any threats to him on this roster.
I am on the fence on Westy. Some points:
1. The injury. You may not know at draft time where he stands.
2. Age. He ain't that old, but has mileage, and some boo-boos.
3. Has an obvious handcuff, but not a cheap one. McCoy is a rookie RB in a year where there aren't many rookie RBs. He'll get a lot of work in the preseason because of Westy's ankle, if he rips off a few runs, rounds 9-10 will seem like a pipe dream.
4. If you are drafting in the 7-12 spot, you better have a handle on Westy, because he is an option, and he can make or break a team this year.
Next I am going to go round by round according to ADP from FBG and other sites and look for value as well as land mines.
2.08 Reggie Bush: No reason to waste a pick in here on him when he never can finish the season and really is more of a catch guy than a run guy. I much prefer the other guy a couple rounds later which we will get to.
"more of a catch guy than a run guy"? I don't care if he's a push the football with his nose guy, if I get points, I get points. Bush is getting taken at the 2/3 turn right now, and Thomas is a solid 4th rounder. In PPR, when healthy, Bush is going to be near the top of the rankings. Health is the question, of course, and I have heard all the microfracture stuff, but I also heard he was running around at minicamp. I think this guy is big value where he is going. And the thing with Pierre, he put up big numbers when Bush was out. With Bush healthy, can he still perform at RB2 standards? I dunno, but Bush can.
3.06 Ronnie Brown: I doubt you can get him at this spot when the actual drafts roll around but I have been screaming about this guy’s value all summer. I have talked about $150 million that Miami has spent on their OL…money doesn’t equal success but Parcells has built a very strong OL. The middle of their OL was the weakness and they brought in the Center form Oakland, Jake Grove. While the schedule is downright brutal I expect Brown to see more touches and will likely hit the 300 mark at least for total touches which I think could land him knockin’ on the top10-12 door. I think he offers a lot of value and if you went a different way early you can fall back on a guy like this and be fine. He will make an incredible RB2 for some teams.
I like him too, especially at that draft spot, but I have concerns about Miami's offense, the QBs ability to keep the D honest, and their apparent love of Patrick Cobbs. Woulda liked to have seen more receptions from Mr. Brown last year.
4.10 Knowshon Moreno: I paid a lot more than the 4.10 for him earlier this summer. The guy is going to be asked to do a lot in this offense. He actually has a decent OL in front of him but unfortunately the Cutler to Marshall combo that keeps defenses very honest has been broken up. I still believe Moreno has a strong chance to be the #1 rookie in FF this year. That could land him in the top10-12 very easily. He won’t go this late in the draft again next year, I can almost be certain of that. Unless he is injured all signs point to him having a pretty big rookie year.
4.11 Thomas Jones: Say what you want, and I am not thinking huge expectations here with the rookie at QB but the Jets have a pretty good OL, a defense that will be much improved, and I believe Jones will lose some of his TDs but I still expect him to carry the load here. 1,200 total yds and 6-7 TDs should make him a very serviceable RB2.
Little to no value:
4.01 Marshawn Lynch: Suspended to start the season and one of the most putrid OL assembled in quite some time. Buffalo is going to have a hard time running the ball this year. I don’t expect Lynch to do well and next year he will likely be a bargain but this year I would steer clear of him.
4.03 Ryan Grant: Bad OL, and an offense that would much rather throw the football then run it. I expect the pack to have to score 24-30 in order to win most games which sometimes is good for RBs but Grant doesn’t have the skills IMHO to be topflight RB in the NFL or in FF really.
Agree on Lynch, but I'll let someone else take the unhappy vet in NY with the rook QB, in that division. No thanks. Ryan Grant is a mystery to me, I think his TD numbers last year were pretty obviously abnormal. With no holdout/early season injury, I can't see how the undisputed #1 for a high-powered offense going in the 4th is anything but a bargain. I'd like more catches, but 1,300+ total yards and 6-10 TDs? Sounds like a nice RB2 to me.
5.09 Larry Johnson: I sure haven’t heard any trade rumors or cuts lately when it comes to LJ. He hasn’t been seen in as many South Beach clubs this off season. Here is a guy that when healthy and provided he can get a hole or two once or twice a game, this guy can really make a defense pay for mistakes. He has been a top3 RB in FF a couple times. It’s insane how late this guy is going. He is only entering his 7th NFL season, and he has had only had over 300 carries twice in his career including 416 in 2006. He will turn 30 in November but I believe he still has a year or two left where he can perform at a high level. 4.5 ypc last year and he was in Herm Edwards dog house plenty the past 2 years. Maybe he deserved to be there but now we see a new coach and LJ will have a clean slate. I look for big things form him and a complete bargain at the tail end of the 5th round.
7.11 Ray Rice: Love the spot for him. This is another one of those combos where you can get Rice in round 7 and then maybe grab McGahee in the 8th. You lock up a RB slot on your team and you likely have the starter between the 2 of them. McClain is being moved to FB and I expect a big decrease in his touches. Also, if Derrick Mason really is retired I look for more balls out of the backfield for Lil Ray. I do not believe Ray Rice will ever be the 30 carry back he was at times in college but there is no reason he cannot be a good solid RB2 and contributor in a 2 back system.
8.08 Felix Jones: I am surprised he is going this late. I look for the Boys to run a lot this season and Jones is going to be involved in this offense. I look for at least 12-15 touches weekly from him whether it is thru the air or on the ground. In fact with Owens leaving I expect even more catches for the RBs. Jones will have some really big games this year, but it will be hard to know exactly when those will be.
I think LJ is a bargain, too. I am just concerned that he might not fit the shotgun offense that I am sure Haley wants to use a bit. It's a small concern, and he has a nice cheap handcuff, I like Charles a lot. Rice is another guy I think will go too early for my liking (especially if I am drafting with Shark Pool regulars-cripes, this guy is hyped here). And I think there is just enough looks for McClain to make this a tough backfield to tie up with just two picks.
I like Felix as well, he seems like a nice value to me. If Barber goes down, he's a must-start. Good risk at that point.
You're a good man, Choke. :X 
This is exactly how I feel about Reggie. People get too caught up in how he gets his points...who cares. Reggie in the 3rd is HUGE value in PPR leagues.
Also, add to that the fact that he didn't become the #1RB in Detroit until week 9 (Rudi Johnson had most of the carries in weeks 1-8) and only had 56 carries in the first 7 games of the season. He should be in line for significantly more carries this year even if the offense & defense are as putrid as they were last year just because he should get the majority of Rudi's carries from a year ago.
Also, add to that the fact that he didn't become the #1RB in Detroit until week 9 (Rudi Johnson had most of the carries in weeks 1-8) and only had 56 carries in the first 7 games of the season. He should be in line for significantly more carries this year even if the offense & defense are as putrid as they were last year just because he should get the majority of Rudi's carries from a year ago.
And you beat me to it. I was just coming to post this! I also don't see either Cason or Morris as much of a threat.
