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MOP RB Off Season Report (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Let’s take a peek into next season. I always think the RB are what makes and breaks most FF seasons. The ability to wheel out 2 top5 or top10 RB consistently over the year will rack up a lot of wins. Let’s look where we are at.

AFC East :

Miami Dolphins: Ronnie Brown’s future is looking brighter and brighter. CPepp will help keep defenses very honest and Brown should not see many 8 man fronts. If he does than Chambers will post even better career year numbers. The OL is not great but it is quickly starting to look at least average and not the complete mess it has been in previous years. Brown can run and catch, he has the size needed to take a pounding…and with a year under his belt you have to like his chances this season of being a top12 RB.

New England Patriots: Corey Dillon is still the man however age is going to catch up to him very soon. He is still going to rack up 1,000 yds and 8+TD in all likelihood however he does not pose a dual threat in this offense. Clearly he is not going to be a 1st round pick in FF this season…has to be a mid 2nd in my book at best.

New York Jets: CuMart is really getting old. They have to look for some alternatives here and the draft may be the best way for them to improve. I would look to see who they draft on draft day and than go from there. If they get their hands on one of the top 3-4 1st round RB this season than we may see the changing of the guard quickly in the Big Apple. The OL will take a hit through Free Agency, coupled with an unsettling QB situation, the offense as a whole needs an overhaul IMO…this is a situation I would steer clear of for the time being.

Buffalo Bills: No one was more hyped than McGahee last season and for all that hype there wasn’t a lot of bite. The team is moving in a different direction. They need a more stable QB situation but they have talent at the WR position, the OL is OK but needs some upgrading. Mike Williams was a complete bust and cut the last time I checked. McGahee has shown flashes and will garner a lot of attention again however many owners will not spend a top5 pick on this guy again.

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker had about the same amount of stats as Willis McGahee did last season. He will certainly be there for the picking in the 2nd…maybe 3rd round this year. Bettis is done and Staley can’t be in the long term plans for Pittsburgh. If they somehow manage to get, LenDale White in the draft than I would be very high on him instead. What I am trying to say is that even though Parker had a nice little season last year I do not see him being an elite RB or doing it on a consistent basis.

Cleveland Browns: Droughns piled up 1,500 yards so I think he proved that Denver was no fluke. However he only crossed the goal line twice all season and I don’t see things suddenly exploding in Cleveland. No RB is going to score 10 TD in the Cleveland offense this upcoming season…unless they address it in the draft somehow. I like RB with at least a lot of potential…Cleveland is not offering that right now.

Cincinnati Bengals: Rudi Johnson will continue to be a potential 1200-1500 yd RB on the ground. He will continue to NOT be a dual threat. He will continue to be able to score at least 8-12+ TD on the ground…remind you of anyone? Perhaps, a young Corey Dillon? Good. Johnson should garner serious consideration at the middle to end of Round 1…I like a dual threat but he seems pretty reliable to score points…pair him with a little more explosive RB and you got something brewing there.

Baltimore Ravens: Jamal Lewis will be overlooked and maybe he should. Mike Anderson is also on board. Lewis will be a decent starter with a good off season program and Anderson pushing him for carries. I was never a big Chester Taylor fan and don’t see the excitement of him in Minnesota but simply speaking about the Ravens…they are still a team that is not an offensive powerhouse…how Brian Billick ever orchestrated the Vikings offense of the late 90’s I will never know. He has done nothing in Baltimore…except win a Super Bowl and that is becoming ancient history. It may be time to change coaches in Baltimore.

AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts: Rhodes will see a lot of action but I think Indy will use a draft pick for a RB…the last guy they got was pretty good as a rookie…in this offense almost any RB is going to be successful. Not taking anything away from Edge but the RB position in this offense is not the focal points most weeks. Whoever has the hammer lock on this position, look for them to produce big numbers but you may have to spend 2 picks in order to secure it…Rhodes, and perhaps any rookie that is picked in the 1st 2-3 rounds of the NFL draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Fred Taylor will be entering his 9th season as an NFL RB…it’s the end of a very rocky career with flashes of unreal talent and also heartbreak for many FF owners over the years. I don’t see anybody in their current stable of RB that is really going to step out and make a big splash. I do know the Jags are a playoff team so Del Rio is going to do what it takes to ensure they can get better production out of their running game. This is a team that basically needs about 20 points to win a lot of their games. They only gave up 269 for the season last year so having a reliable running game would make them a serious playoff contender and not just a team that made it there. They need to address this position in the draft…another team where Mr. White would do very well in.

Tennessee Titans: Brown/Henry combo…it just isn’t going to make things easy for owners of either of them. You hate to wish for injuries but unless one of them goes down than it will most likely be a RBBC of some kind. And we don’t like that. Also the QB position may in transition although McNair’s backup has proven capable if they want to go in that direction. Tennessee is still the bottom half of this division. A work in progress.

Houston Texans: Bring on Reggie Bush. Will that spell the end of Dominick Davis? Probably but I also think Bush will be brought along much like Ronnie Brown was for Miami. Quick trivia…how many yds did Emmitt Smith rush for as a rookie? He didn’t even break 1,000 yds finishing at 937…he did manage 11 TD though so we knew he was going to be “special”. I think Bush will not exceed 20 touches a game but that may be more than enough for him to do his damage. Bush catching passes out of the backfield is what will separate him from the rest of the RB. He has great vision when he is on the move and 5-10 yds beyond the line of scrimmage…it’s not just raw speed, he cuts on a dime literally. You go one way and he can start going the other way. I just described Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk combined...put that in your pipe and smoke it. Let’s see what happens on draft day.

AFC West:

Denver Broncos: Bell? Maybe. Someone not on the roster yet…possibly. Always the potential for big numbers but you will need at least 2 slots reserved to lock up the RB for this team. Bell gained over 5 yds a clip and scored 8 TD in an offense that scored 25 rushing TD and ranked 3rd in the NFL in that dept. He’s going to get some chances. He also totaled up over 1,000 yds rush/rec. Bell for now, and a few rounds you will need to lock up other RB on that team…maybe even the local high school the way Shanny can produce elite numbers from his RB slots.

Kansas City Chiefs: Before everyone gets gushy over Larry Johnson, let’s take a deep breath. The offense is going to be different with Vermeil gone IMO. Johsnon was out to prove he was “the man” when Priest was the starter ahead of him. Is Priest retiring? That could shake things up. I like Larry Johnson but I am cautiously optimistic for this season as the team chemistry might change with Vermeil gone. Vermeil did push this guy with the whole “It’s time to take your diapers off” remark. LJ took it personally and Vermeil knew how to motivate this cat. High 1st round but there is some danger in this pick.

San Diego Chargers: Hopefully Rivers can be at least adequate as a rookie…3rd year QB. It will be his 1st season under Center however. LT is and should be the #1 RB taken but one cannot dismiss what Losman did to the Bills last season and the terrible year McGahee had because of it.

Oakland Raiders: Lamont Jordan, what’s not to like? Aaron Brooks will be fine…he’s no worse than Collins, IMO. He will go pretty high in most drafts. Was a late 2nd round pick last year…I look for him to be off the board by about the mid 1st round. He caught 70 passes last season and while he will do fine again in that dept…I think something in the 40 something range is more likely. His rushing stats were really just avg at best. 3.8 yds a carry, lil over 1,000 yds and 9 rush TD. Middle to back part of the 1st round in most drafts.

NFC East:

New York Giants: Till something better than Tiki Barber comes along he will remain a FF RB bargain at the ned of the 1st beginning of the 2nd round. He is getting older and will not be called on much inside the 5 but he is explosive and can break em form far out. 1,900…1,600…2,000…2,390…those are the total yds he has racked up over the past 4 seasons…the guy has been worth his weight in gold.

Washington Redskins: Clinton Portis till further notice. One of the easiest teams that have a defined identity at RB. 1,600 yds and 10+TD easy.

Dallas Cowboys: I still want to believe it’s Julius Jones with a little MB III mixed in for relief. People will be very cautious of JJ but the addition of TO should mean great things at the RB spot in this offense. TO is a major major major major major major upgrade. In San Fran the RB did very well when Owens was there, also Westy had quite a terrific year when TO was there in 2004. When TO was suspended, Westy went down for the season…coincidence? You decide.

Philadelphia Eagles: Till I see what they do to answer the vacancy of TO I am very leery of any of their RB right now. I don’t think an Eagles RB will crack the top15 this year.

NFC North:

Chicago Bears: Benson will get his shot this year. You cannot draft a guy as high as they did and bench him going into his 2nd season at RB. Benson may have benefited from a light load as he took a lot of pounding in college and should be very fresh this year. I wouldn’t hesitate as long as he has a decent training camp in wanting to secure Benson in the draft. He could be a strong candidate for a big year. The Bears defense means they need to do very little on offense to win and Benson will get a lot of carries.

Minnesota Vikings: before you have a cream session over Chester Taylor, I would remind you that the 2006 Vikings are a far cry from the Vikings of 5 years ago. I am not enamored with their offense and I would like a wait and see approach. Someone on draft day will go after Taylor way too high while you are picking up that WR1, or WR2 but really is a WR1 in the 3rd/4th round. Bank on it.



Detroit Lions: Still like Kevin Jones, still see him getting a lot of looks in this offense. Still see him succeeding and with new management he has a bright future. Not gonna burn a 1st rounder on this guy, but solid 2nd/3rd round pick depending on league size.

Green Bay Packers: Is Favre playing? Is Walker playing? Who is the RB? Run AWAY! Seriously, we just do not know enough right now to make any decisions on this team or where they are at.

NFC South:

Carolina Panthers: DeSahun has been locked up…I still think he is too brittle and unreliable for more than a RB3 in most leagues…you can’t bank on having this guy in your lineup all year can you?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: “Cadillac” Maybe he will set the Gold standard this season for the entire year. I love the kid and think he has some big seasons ahead. Needs to get better than a 4 ypc-atch avg though. Needs more catches in general. I like the offense and think they will get even better this season as Simms improves.

Atlanta Falcons: Can we squeeze one more year out of Dunn? Will still get about 100 yds per week on avg but you cannot bank on a lot of TD. A decent RB2 in 12 team leagues.

New Orleans Saints: This team is in the midst of an overhaul. New QB, lost a terrific OL and Deuce coming off another injury. I really think most owners will watch this situation fall to something they are comfortable with and it isn’t the 1st round I assure you.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: Losing Hutch will hurt but he still is going to rack up a lot of yds and TD…I don’t see Seattle being the same team as last season but than against hey will have a better defense with Julian on board so maybe Shaun will se e a lot of short fields and not have to grind it out the entire length. No one can replace Hutch but you can plug in Guards…Tackles are harder to replace.

St. Louis Rams: No Martz, less sparx? Jackson put up 1,200 yds and about 10 TD last year so he should continue to do well. He is not anything like Faulk and I am afraid because he doesn’t share the same grace that one of those knees is going to eventually go poof and that turf they have…we’ll see.

Arizona Cardinals: Edge will help this team and I expect him to do very well on natural grass. Lots of weapons at the WR position to counter balance teams keying in on him as was the case in Indy…I like this move and think he will flourish in the dry heat of Arizona. I have no hesitation in taking him fairly early in the draft.

San Fran 49ers: The Barlow/Gore combo is not the answer…can Frank Gore be the starter? Gore finished well last season…look at his final 3 games. If the Niners do not address the RB in the draft than Gore will see continued increase in carries. He toted the rock 25 times in week 17 last season.

In no certain order.

Top5

Shaun

LT

LJ

Edge

Portis

Some RB looking to crack that top5 in no particular order are…Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell(maybe), Lamont Jordan, Tiki Barber, “Cadillac”…there are others I am sure you all will discuss. Enjoy.

 
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Good insight. I'm very interested in Carolina and if they draft/sign another guy, or end up trying out Shelton/Goings as the #2.

Also, Jax bears watching IMO. I think this is the year Taylor gives up a decent number of carries.

I do think Chris Brown till tote the rock for Tenn. When he was healthy, he was the guy for most of the season last year.

 
Good insight. I'm very interested in Carolina and if they draft/sign another guy, or end up trying out Shelton/Goings as the #2.

Also, Jax bears watching IMO. I think this is the year Taylor gives up a decent number of carries.

I do think Chris Brown till tote the rock for Tenn. When he was healthy, he was the guy for most of the season last year.
Taylor gives up a decent # of carries? Are you saying he will let go of his starting position?
 
Great stuff, man.

Just a word on Parker - this isn't a homer trying to inflate a guy, just someone with a long-standing knowledge of the Steeler offense. Parker will at least duplicate, and most likely improve upon, last year's numbers (barring injury.) Bettis is gone, and Staley is not likely to do much more than fill his short yardage/goal line role. He'll see some carries and Haynes will see some as well, but I fully expect to see Parker get 250 carries again this year. I don't see him getting 320+, as I think he's better utilized as a home run threat than a workhorse. He won't thrill you with the TD numbers, but he should at least match last season there as well.

265 carries 1216 yards 22 rec 275 yds - 6 TD

Rank accordingly.

 
Kansas City Chiefs: Before everyone gets gushy over Larry Johnson, let’s take a deep breath. The offense is going to be different with Vermeil gone IMO. Johsnon was out to prove he was “the man” when Priest was the starter ahead of him. Is Priest retiring? That could shake things up. I like Larry Johnson but I am cautiously optimistic for this season as the team chemistry might change with Vermeil gone. Vermeil did push this guy with the whole “It’s time to take your diapers off” remark. LJ took it personally and Vermeil knew how to motivate this cat. High 1st round but there is some danger in this pick.
I see lots of question marks around KCs O with Vermeil AND Al Saunders gone. Had Saunders stayed in town I would have no problem with LJ as a top 3 RB. Now, I'd rather have Portis if I'm picking in the 3 spot.
 
Kansas City Chiefs: Before everyone gets gushy over Larry Johnson, let’s take a deep breath. The offense is going to be different with Vermeil gone IMO. Johsnon was out to prove he was “the man” when Priest was the starter ahead of him. Is Priest retiring? That could shake things up. I like Larry Johnson but I am cautiously optimistic for this season as the team chemistry might change with Vermeil gone.  Vermeil did push this guy with the whole “It’s time to take your diapers off” remark. LJ took it personally and Vermeil knew how to motivate this cat. High 1st round but there is some danger in this pick.
I see lots of question marks around KCs O with Vermeil AND Al Saunders gone. Had Saunders stayed in town I would have no problem with LJ as a top 3 RB. Now, I'd rather have Portis if I'm picking in the 3 spot.
I would take LJ over Portis in a heartbeat. Good Lord, if I were sitting at #4 and Portis went off the board third, I'd probably look like Chappelle in "Half Baked" when he signs for the weed at the clinic.
 
Very cool writeup.

A few things on the Dolphins . . .

I just have a feeling that Ricky is going to play this year much to the dismay of all the Brown owners for 2006. If he does play their offense is going to be awesome. Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Fred Beasley, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael, and Cpepp. :eek:

If Ricky doesn't play Ronnie Brown is going to have an outstanding year for a few reasons . . .

1. The Fred Beasley pickup was very nice. He'll provide the Dolphins with a true FB which they havne't had in quite some time that will clear the way for the Big Old Stone.

2. This will be the Olines 2nd year under Houck. They improved dramatically last year and I expect more improvement this year.

 
I would take LJ over Portis in a heartbeat. Good Lord, if I were sitting at #4 and Portis went off the board third, I'd probably look like Chappelle in "Half Baked" when he signs for the weed at the clinic.
:shrug: To each his own.I honestly haven't followed KC too closely. Who's running the offense? What will it look like? Are they trying to keep the same system?

 
Kansas City Chiefs: Before everyone gets gushy over Larry Johnson, let’s take a deep breath. The offense is going to be different with Vermeil gone IMO. Johsnon was out to prove he was “the man” when Priest was the starter ahead of him. Is Priest retiring? That could shake things up. I like Larry Johnson but I am cautiously optimistic for this season as the team chemistry might change with Vermeil gone.  Vermeil did push this guy with the whole “It’s time to take your diapers off” remark. LJ took it personally and Vermeil knew how to motivate this cat. High 1st round but there is some danger in this pick.
I see lots of question marks around KCs O with Vermeil AND Al Saunders gone. Had Saunders stayed in town I would have no problem with LJ as a top 3 RB. Now, I'd rather have Portis if I'm picking in the 3 spot.
as an LJ owner, I like your honesty..not a bad summary to go with Portis..I can see where you are coming from.for me, I'm not worried about Lj. Shields is back, the OC was the o-line coach for the past 5 years or more, if i'm not mistaken..the same offense that was #1 in what, rush yards and tds or scoring for the last 5 years? ..the Chiefs will use the same exact system they've always used..Portis on the other hand, is going to take a big step up this year, he's a certified top 10 if not top 5 overall pick , no doubt.. :thumbup: I'm interested to see who carolina gets to start at rb for them, b/c it won't be Foster, IMO..ricky maybe? what a PERFECT fit he'd be! Dunn?!?!

Benson is a good bet to start in chicago. TJ vastly overrated..had one good year in his career, only b/c Benson sat out and gift wrapped the starting job for him..

Mcgahee should rebound nicely.

Minny will never have a featured back carrying 300+ times per year..Taylor will split with the other 3,500 rb's they have on that roster..

Dillon = toast..NE has alot of picks early in this draft, and they'll burn on a rookie RB, no doubt..i'd also think they'd look long and hard at Ricky, too..

Denver is in NO WAY going to stay with Ron 'i fall down at first contact' Dayne as their starter, they will sign someone..we saw enough of Dayne in NY to know he just sucks.

the Packers RB i wouldn't touch at all..loss of o-linemen, favre, javon walker( possibly) spells doom and gloom..you'll see a 1000 yard 3.9 yard per carry 6-8 td rb come out of GB this year..stay away..a good 4th RB, thats about it..

steve jackson now plays for the guy who just can't stop coaching a RBBC system.he'll split with Faulk and get somewhere around 210-240 carries...800-1000 yards, tops..linehan can't help himself..he's gotta have lots of rb's switching in and out constantly..its a joke..

when Westbrook gets hurt again,who do the Eagles plan to turn too?? Westy is a WR that occasionally runs the ball..yawn.

it'll be interesting to see where Dunn winds up and does he start or what? is Atl letting him walk? he's great..very underrated...

Brown/Henry in Tenn begs the question: why not trade up for Reggie Bush??

love this list/thread ! good work! thanks for the time and effort!

 
Where did Al Saunders end up?
The fact that Vermeil and Saunders (the 2 guys that really made that offense) are gone from KC and the fact that Saunders is now in D.C. closes the gap between LJ and Portis, considerably, IMO.Solari may very well keep that offense going in KC (I answered some of my own questions above), but I'd still consider it a big question mark. Bigger than any Portis has.

I certainly won't fault anyone for taking LJ ahead of Portis, but for my money Portis is the safer #3 pick.

:2cents:

 
Where did Al Saunders end up?
The fact that Vermeil and Saunders (the 2 guys that really made that offense) are gone from KC and the fact that Saunders is now in D.C. closes the gap between LJ and Portis, considerably, IMO.Solari may very well keep that offense going in KC (I answered some of my own questions above), but I'd still consider it a big question mark. Bigger than any Portis has.

I certainly won't fault anyone for taking LJ ahead of Portis, but for my money Portis is the safer #3 pick.

:2cents:
I agree that the Vermeil/Saunders departures will probably affect LJ, but not nearly as much as you'd think. The main factor for success in KC's running attack has been the line, not the coaches. The Chiefs under Vermeil ranked #13, 10, 16, 7, and 6 in rushing attempts. Their yards per attempt average was ranked #5, 2, 11, 3, and 5. This leads me to believe that the yardage totals were more a product of a good blocking scheme than the RBs getting an overabundance of attempts. The only thing that might suffer is the TD totals, but :1) Why change something that's working to perfection

2) Even a HUGE drop in TD totals from their previously astronomical level would still rank K.C. among the leaders in rushing TDs.

Aside from Alexander or LT, I think Johnson's as safe a pick as there is. Portis was so uneven last year (especially in TD output) that I would never feel he was a safer pick than Johnson.

 
Where did Al Saunders end up?
The fact that Vermeil and Saunders (the 2 guys that really made that offense) are gone from KC and the fact that Saunders is now in D.C. closes the gap between LJ and Portis, considerably, IMO.Solari may very well keep that offense going in KC (I answered some of my own questions above), but I'd still consider it a big question mark. Bigger than any Portis has.

I certainly won't fault anyone for taking LJ ahead of Portis, but for my money Portis is the safer #3 pick.

:2cents:
I agree that the Vermeil/Saunders departures will probably affect LJ, but not nearly as much as you'd think. The main factor for success in KC's running attack has been the line, not the coaches. The Chiefs under Vermeil ranked #13, 10, 16, 7, and 6 in rushing attempts. Their yards per attempt average was ranked #5, 2, 11, 3, and 5. This leads me to believe that the yardage totals were more a product of a good blocking scheme than the RBs getting an overabundance of attempts. The only thing that might suffer is the TD totals, but :1) Why change something that's working to perfection

2) Even a HUGE drop in TD totals from their previously astronomical level would still rank K.C. among the leaders in rushing TDs.

Aside from Alexander or LT, I think Johnson's as safe a pick as there is. Portis was so uneven last year (especially in TD output) that I would never feel he was a safer pick than Johnson.
As a Portis owner I can honestly say I would rather have L.J. I'm very happy having Portis don't get me wrong but that line is awesome in K.C. Do people remember the #'s L.J. was putting up at the end of last yearHere's a reminder

OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST

9 OAK W 27-23 22 107 4.9 15 2 3 48 16.0 36 0 0 0

10 @BUF L 14-3 27 132 4.9 24 0 5 46 9.2 14 0 0 0

11 @HOU W 45-17 36 211 5.9 30 2 1 6 6.0 6 0 0 0

12 NE W 26-16 31 119 3.8 16 1 5 53 10.6 30 0 1 1

13 DEN W 31-27 30 140 4.7 30 2 2 9 4.5 6 0 0 0

14 @DAL L 31-28 26 143 5.5 26 3 3 28 9.3 12 0 0 0

15 @NYG L 27-17 31 167 5.4 28 2 2 17 8.5 9 0 0 0

16 SD W 20-7 32 131 4.1 21 1 4 48 12.0 28 1 1 0

17 CIN W 37-3 26 201 7.7 49 3 2 21 10.5 13 0 1 1

 
Where did Al Saunders end up?
The fact that Vermeil and Saunders (the 2 guys that really made that offense) are gone from KC and the fact that Saunders is now in D.C. closes the gap between LJ and Portis, considerably, IMO.Solari may very well keep that offense going in KC (I answered some of my own questions above), but I'd still consider it a big question mark. Bigger than any Portis has.

I certainly won't fault anyone for taking LJ ahead of Portis, but for my money Portis is the safer #3 pick.

:2cents:
I agree that the Vermeil/Saunders departures will probably affect LJ, but not nearly as much as you'd think. The main factor for success in KC's running attack has been the line, not the coaches. The Chiefs under Vermeil ranked #13, 10, 16, 7, and 6 in rushing attempts. Their yards per attempt average was ranked #5, 2, 11, 3, and 5. This leads me to believe that the yardage totals were more a product of a good blocking scheme than the RBs getting an overabundance of attempts. The only thing that might suffer is the TD totals, but :1) Why change something that's working to perfection

2) Even a HUGE drop in TD totals from their previously astronomical level would still rank K.C. among the leaders in rushing TDs.

Aside from Alexander or LT, I think Johnson's as safe a pick as there is. Portis was so uneven last year (especially in TD output) that I would never feel he was a safer pick than Johnson.
As a Portis owner I can honestly say I would rather have L.J. I'm very happy having Portis don't get me wrong but that line is awesome in K.C. Do people remember the #'s L.J. was putting up at the end of last yearHere's a reminder

OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST

9 OAK W 27-23 22 107 4.9 15 2 3 48 16.0 36 0 0 0

10 @BUF L 14-3 27 132 4.9 24 0 5 46 9.2 14 0 0 0

11 @HOU W 45-17 36 211 5.9 30 2 1 6 6.0 6 0 0 0

12 NE W 26-16 31 119 3.8 16 1 5 53 10.6 30 0 1 1

13 DEN W 31-27 30 140 4.7 30 2 2 9 4.5 6 0 0 0

14 @DAL L 31-28 26 143 5.5 26 3 3 28 9.3 12 0 0 0

15 @NYG L 27-17 31 167 5.4 28 2 2 17 8.5 9 0 0 0

16 SD W 20-7 32 131 4.1 21 1 4 48 12.0 28 1 1 0

17 CIN W 37-3 26 201 7.7 49 3 2 21 10.5 13 0 1 1
Agree to some extent Blackjack but you have to worry when the coach steps down. Look at some famous coaches who have stepped down and how the team responded. What happened to New England when Parcells left? How bout the Rams after Vermeil left in '99. I think the Rams were not as good the following year. They did get better the next couple of seasons.Just don't be too naive that Vermeil leaving...and who's the head coach now? Is it not Herm Edwards? I'm not excited about him at the head of this ship. Edwards is a good coach but I think of him leading a team more like the Chargers than the Chiefs.

 
Aside from Alexander or LT, I think Johnson's as safe a pick as there is. Portis was so uneven last year (especially in TD output) that I would never feel he was a safer pick than Johnson.
I own LJ and Portis in a TD only league (won the title last year :thumbup: ). Portis didn't score at all his first 5 weeks, but then scored 12 TDs (one passing) over the next 12 weeks. He scored in 8 of those 12 games.With that pace and the addition of Al Saunders, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him outperform LJ next year.

 
Droughns deserves more respect than what you are giving him. He finished as RB#14 in my league ahead of Davis, McGahee, Dillon, Parker, JJones.... The Clev O should take a slight uptick in '06 and it would not be surprising to see Droughns duplicate his '05 yardage with maybe 5-7 TDs. He will be a bargin for someone looking for their RB#2 in the 3rd rd.

Oh, yeah :thumbup: Nice writeup MOP!

 
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Let’s take a peek into next season. I always think the RB are what makes and breaks most FF seasons. The ability to wheel out 2 top5 or top10 RB consistently over the year will rack up a lot of wins. Let’s look where we are at.

AFC East :

Miami Dolphins: Ronnie Brown’s future is looking brighter and brighter. CPepp will help keep defenses very honest and Brown should not see many 8 man fronts. If he does than Chambers will post even better career year numbers. The OL is not great but it is quickly starting to look at least average and not the complete mess it has been in previous years. Brown can run and catch, he has the size needed to take a pounding…and with a year under his belt you have to like his chances this season of being a top12 RB.

New England Patriots: Corey Dillon is still the man however age is going to catch up to him very soon. He is still going to rack up 1,000 yds and 8+TD in all likelihood however he does not pose a dual threat in this offense. Clearly he is not going to be a 1st round pick in FF this season…has to be a mid 2nd in my book at best.

New York Jets: CuMart is really getting old. They have to look for some alternatives here and the draft may be the best way for them to improve. I would look to see who they draft on draft day and than go from there. If they get their hands on one of the top 3-4 1st round RB this season than we may see the changing of the guard quickly in the Big Apple. The OL will take a hit through Free Agency, coupled with an unsettling QB situation, the offense as a whole needs an overhaul IMO…this is a situation I would steer clear of for the time being.

Buffalo Bills: No one was more hyped than McGahee last season and for all that hype there wasn’t a lot of bite. The team is moving in a different direction. They need a more stable QB situation but they have talent at the WR position, the OL is OK but needs some upgrading. Mike Williams was a complete bust and cut the last time I checked. McGahee has shown flashes and will garner a lot of attention again however many owners will not spend a top5 pick on this guy again.

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker had about the same amount of stats as Willis McGahee did last season. He will certainly be there for the picking in the 2nd…maybe 3rd round this year. Bettis is done and Staley can’t be in the long term plans for Pittsburgh. If they somehow manage to get, LenDale White in the draft than I would be very high on him instead. What I am trying to say is that even though Parker had a nice little season last year I do not see him being an elite RB or doing it on a consistent basis.

Cleveland Browns: Droughns piled up 1,500 yards so I think he proved that Denver was no fluke. However he only crossed the goal line twice all season and I don’t see things suddenly exploding in Cleveland. No RB is going to score 10 TD in the Cleveland offense this upcoming season…unless they address it in the draft somehow. I like RB with at least a lot of potential…Cleveland is not offering that right now.

Cincinnati Bengals: Rudi Johnson will continue to be a potential 1200-1500 yd RB on the ground. He will continue to NOT be a dual threat. He will continue to be able to score at least 8-12+ TD on the ground…remind you of anyone? Perhaps, a young Corey Dillon? Good. Johnson should garner serious consideration at the middle to end of Round 1…I like a dual threat but he seems pretty reliable to score points…pair him with a little more explosive RB and you got something brewing there.

Baltimore Ravens: Jamal Lewis will be overlooked and maybe he should. Mike Anderson is also on board. Lewis will be a decent starter with a good off season program and Anderson pushing him for carries. I was never a big Chester Taylor fan and don’t see the excitement of him in Minnesota but simply speaking about the Ravens…they are still a team that is not an offensive powerhouse…how Brian Billick ever orchestrated the Vikings offense of the late 90’s I will never know. He has done nothing in Baltimore…except win a Super Bowl and that is becoming ancient history. It may be time to change coaches in Baltimore.

AFC South:

Indianapolis Colts: Rhodes will see a lot of action but I think Indy will use a draft pick for a RB…the last guy they got was pretty good as a rookie…in this offense almost any RB is going to be successful. Not taking anything away from Edge but the RB position in this offense is not the focal points most weeks. Whoever has the hammer lock on this position, look for them to produce big numbers but you may have to spend 2 picks in order to secure it…Rhodes, and perhaps any rookie that is picked in the 1st 2-3 rounds of the NFL draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Fred Taylor will be entering his 9th season as an NFL RB…it’s the end of a very rocky career with flashes of unreal talent and also heartbreak for many FF owners over the years. I don’t see anybody in their current stable of RB that is really going to step out and make a big splash. I do know the Jags are a playoff team so Del Rio is going to do what it takes to ensure they can get better production out of their running game. This is a team that basically needs about 20 points to win a lot of their games. They only gave up 269 for the season last year so having a reliable running game would make them a serious playoff contender and not just a team that made it there. They need to address this position in the draft…another team where Mr. White would do very well in.

Tennessee Titans: Brown/Henry combo…it just isn’t going to make things easy for owners of either of them. You hate to wish for injuries but unless one of them goes down than it will most likely be a RBBC of some kind. And we don’t like that. Also the QB position may in transition although McNair’s backup has proven capable if they want to go in that direction. Tennessee is still the bottom half of this division. A work in progress.

Houston Texans: Bring on Reggie Bush. Will that spell the end of Dominick Davis? Probably but I also think Bush will be brought along much like Ronnie Brown was for Miami. Quick trivia…how many yds did Emmitt Smith rush for as a rookie? He didn’t even break 1,000 yds finishing at 937…he did manage 11 TD though so we knew he was going to be “special”. I think Bush will not exceed 20 touches a game but that may be more than enough for him to do his damage. Bush catching passes out of the backfield is what will separate him from the rest of the RB. He has great vision when he is on the move and 5-10 yds beyond the line of scrimmage…it’s not just raw speed, he cuts on a dime literally. You go one way and he can start going the other way. I just described Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk combined...put that in your pipe and smoke it. Let’s see what happens on draft day.

AFC West:

Denver Broncos: Bell? Maybe. Someone not on the roster yet…possibly. Always the potential for big numbers but you will need at least 2 slots reserved to lock up the RB for this team. Bell gained over 5 yds a clip and scored 8 TD in an offense that scored 25 rushing TD and ranked 3rd in the NFL in that dept. He’s going to get some chances. He also totaled up over 1,000 yds rush/rec. Bell for now, and a few rounds you will need to lock up other RB on that team…maybe even the local high school the way Shanny can produce elite numbers from his RB slots.

Kansas City Chiefs: Before everyone gets gushy over Larry Johnson, let’s take a deep breath. The offense is going to be different with Vermeil gone IMO. Johsnon was out to prove he was “the man” when Priest was the starter ahead of him. Is Priest retiring? That could shake things up. I like Larry Johnson but I am cautiously optimistic for this season as the team chemistry might change with Vermeil gone. Vermeil did push this guy with the whole “It’s time to take your diapers off” remark. LJ took it personally and Vermeil knew how to motivate this cat. High 1st round but there is some danger in this pick.

San Diego Chargers: Hopefully Rivers can be at least adequate as a rookie…3rd year QB. It will be his 1st season under Center however. LT is and should be the #1 RB taken but one cannot dismiss what Losman did to the Bills last season and the terrible year McGahee had because of it.

Oakland Raiders: Lamont Jordan, what’s not to like? Aaron Brooks will be fine…he’s no worse than Collins, IMO. He will go pretty high in most drafts. Was a late 2nd round pick last year…I look for him to be off the board by about the mid 1st round. He caught 70 passes last season and while he will do fine again in that dept…I think something in the 40 something range is more likely. His rushing stats were really just avg at best. 3.8 yds a carry, lil over 1,000 yds and 9 rush TD. Middle to back part of the 1st round in most drafts.

NFC East:

New York Giants: Till something better than Tiki Barber comes along he will remain a FF RB bargain at the ned of the 1st beginning of the 2nd round. He is getting older and will not be called on much inside the 5 but he is explosive and can break em form far out. 1,900…1,600…2,000…2,390…those are the total yds he has racked up over the past 4 seasons…the guy has been worth his weight in gold.

Washington Redskins: Clinton Portis till further notice. One of the easiest teams that have a defined identity at RB. 1,600 yds and 10+TD easy.

Dallas Cowboys: I still want to believe it’s Julius Jones with a little MB III mixed in for relief. People will be very cautious of JJ but the addition of TO should mean great things at the RB spot in this offense. TO is a major major major major major major upgrade. In San Fran the RB did very well when Owens was there, also Westy had quite a terrific year when TO was there in 2004. When TO was suspended, Westy went down for the season…coincidence? You decide.

Philadelphia Eagles: Till I see what they do to answer the vacancy of TO I am very leery of any of their RB right now. I don’t think an Eagles RB will crack the top15 this year.

NFC North:

Chicago Bears: Benson will get his shot this year. You cannot draft a guy as high as they did and bench him going into his 2nd season at RB. Benson may have benefited from a light load as he took a lot of pounding in college and should be very fresh this year. I wouldn’t hesitate as long as he has a decent training camp in wanting to secure Benson in the draft. He could be a strong candidate for a big year. The Bears defense means they need to do very little on offense to win and Benson will get a lot of carries.

Minnesota Vikings: before you have a cream session over Chester Taylor, I would remind you that the 2006 Vikings are a far cry from the Vikings of 5 years ago. I am not enamored with their offense and I would like a wait and see approach. Someone on draft day will go after Taylor way too high while you are picking up that WR1, or WR2 but really is a WR1 in the 3rd/4th round. Bank on it.



Detroit Lions: Still like Kevin Jones, still see him getting a lot of looks in this offense. Still see him succeeding and with new management he has a bright future. Not gonna burn a 1st rounder on this guy, but solid 2nd/3rd round pick depending on league size.

Green Bay Packers: Is Favre playing? Is Walker playing? Who is the RB? Run AWAY! Seriously, we just do not know enough right now to make any decisions on this team or where they are at.

NFC South:

Carolina Panthers: DeSahun has been locked up…I still think he is too brittle and unreliable for more than a RB3 in most leagues…you can’t bank on having this guy in your lineup all year can you?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: “Cadillac” Maybe he will set the Gold standard this season for the entire year. I love the kid and think he has some big seasons ahead. Needs to get better than a 4 ypc-atch avg though. Needs more catches in general. I like the offense and think they will get even better this season as Simms improves.

Atlanta Falcons: Can we squeeze one more year out of Dunn? Will still get about 100 yds per week on avg but you cannot bank on a lot of TD. A decent RB2 in 12 team leagues.

New Orleans Saints: This team is in the midst of an overhaul. New QB, lost a terrific OL and Deuce coming off another injury. I really think most owners will watch this situation fall to something they are comfortable with and it isn’t the 1st round I assure you.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: Losing Hutch will hurt but he still is going to rack up a lot of yds and TD…I don’t see Seattle being the same team as last season but than against hey will have a better defense with Julian on board so maybe Shaun will se e a lot of short fields and not have to grind it out the entire length. No one can replace Hutch but you can plug in Guards…Tackles are harder to replace.

St. Louis Rams: No Martz, less sparx? Jackson put up 1,200 yds and about 10 TD last year so he should continue to do well. He is not anything like Faulk and I am afraid because he doesn’t share the same grace that one of those knees is going to eventually go poof and that turf they have…we’ll see.

Arizona Cardinals: Edge will help this team and I expect him to do very well on natural grass. Lots of weapons at the WR position to counter balance teams keying in on him as was the case in Indy…I like this move and think he will flourish in the dry heat of Arizona. I have no hesitation in taking him fairly early in the draft.

San Fran 49ers: The Barlow/Gore combo is not the answer…can Frank Gore be the starter? Gore finished well last season…look at his final 3 games. If the Niners do not address the RB in the draft than Gore will see continued increase in carries. He toted the rock 25 times in week 17 last season.

In no certain order.

Top5

Shaun

LT

LJ

Edge

Portis

Some RB looking to crack that top5 in no particular order are…Ronnie Brown, Tatum Bell(maybe), Lamont Jordan, Tiki Barber, “Cadillac”…there are others I am sure you all will discuss. Enjoy.
Good info here! I have Edge about 9th though. Don't underestimate the change of teams
 
Droughns deserves more respect than what you are giving him. He finished as RB#14 in my league ahead of Davis, McGahee, Dillon, Parker, JJones.... The Clev O should take a slight uptick in '06 and it would not be surprising to see Droughns duplicate his '05 yardage with maybe 5-7 TDs. He will be a bargin for someone looking for their RB#2 in the 3rd rd.

Oh, yeah :thumbup: Nice writeup MOP!
I wrote:Cleveland Browns: Droughns piled up 1,500 yards so I think he proved that Denver was no fluke. However he only crossed the goal line twice all season and I don’t see things suddenly exploding in Cleveland. No RB is going to score 10 TD in the Cleveland offense this upcoming season…unless they address it in the draft somehow. I like RB with at least a lot of potential…Cleveland is not offering that right now.

I definitely respected him and you agree that 10 TD is not reality right now in this offense.

Glad you liked the write up...are you from Cleveland by chance?

 
Cincinnati Bengals: Rudi Johnson will continue to be a potential 1200-1500 yd RB on the ground. He will continue to NOT be a dual threat. He will continue to be able to score at least 8-12+ TD on the ground…remind you of anyone? Perhaps, a young Corey Dillon? Good. Johnson should garner serious consideration at the middle to end of Round 1…I like a dual threat but he seems pretty reliable to score points…pair him with a little more explosive RB and you got something brewing there.
Don't discount Chris Perry since he has great hands and I can see him taking over more of Rudi's carries.
 
Chicago Bears: Benson will get his shot this year. You cannot draft a guy as high as they did and bench him going into his 2nd season at RB. Benson may have benefited from a light load as he took a lot of pounding in college and should be very fresh this year. I wouldn’t hesitate as long as he has a decent training camp in wanting to secure Benson in the draft. He could be a strong candidate for a big year. The Bears defense means they need to do very little on offense to win and Benson will get a lot of carries.
It is Jones' job until he loses it. The Bears will work Benson in more, but it's in their best interests to get as much as they can out of Jones and save Benson. After all, Jones has two years left on his contract and then he's probably gone. No need for the Bears push Benson in there just because he was a high pick. The situation will be similar to what the Bengals are doing with Rudi and Perry.
 
Where did Al Saunders end up?
The fact that Vermeil and Saunders (the 2 guys that really made that offense) are gone from KC and the fact that Saunders is now in D.C. closes the gap between LJ and Portis, considerably, IMO.Solari may very well keep that offense going in KC (I answered some of my own questions above), but I'd still consider it a big question mark. Bigger than any Portis has.

I certainly won't fault anyone for taking LJ ahead of Portis, but for my money Portis is the safer #3 pick.

:2cents:
I agree that the Vermeil/Saunders departures will probably affect LJ, but not nearly as much as you'd think. The main factor for success in KC's running attack has been the line, not the coaches. The Chiefs under Vermeil ranked #13, 10, 16, 7, and 6 in rushing attempts. Their yards per attempt average was ranked #5, 2, 11, 3, and 5. This leads me to believe that the yardage totals were more a product of a good blocking scheme than the RBs getting an overabundance of attempts. The only thing that might suffer is the TD totals, but :1) Why change something that's working to perfection

2) Even a HUGE drop in TD totals from their previously astronomical level would still rank K.C. among the leaders in rushing TDs.

Aside from Alexander or LT, I think Johnson's as safe a pick as there is. Portis was so uneven last year (especially in TD output) that I would never feel he was a safer pick than Johnson.
As a Portis owner I can honestly say I would rather have L.J. I'm very happy having Portis don't get me wrong but that line is awesome in K.C. Do people remember the #'s L.J. was putting up at the end of last yearHere's a reminder

OPP RESULT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST

9 OAK W 27-23 22 107 4.9 15 2 3 48 16.0 36 0 0 0

10 @BUF L 14-3 27 132 4.9 24 0 5 46 9.2 14 0 0 0

11 @HOU W 45-17 36 211 5.9 30 2 1 6 6.0 6 0 0 0

12 NE W 26-16 31 119 3.8 16 1 5 53 10.6 30 0 1 1

13 DEN W 31-27 30 140 4.7 30 2 2 9 4.5 6 0 0 0

14 @DAL L 31-28 26 143 5.5 26 3 3 28 9.3 12 0 0 0

15 @NYG L 27-17 31 167 5.4 28 2 2 17 8.5 9 0 0 0

16 SD W 20-7 32 131 4.1 21 1 4 48 12.0 28 1 1 0

17 CIN W 37-3 26 201 7.7 49 3 2 21 10.5 13 0 1 1
Agree to some extent Blackjack but you have to worry when the coach steps down. Look at some famous coaches who have stepped down and how the team responded. What happened to New England when Parcells left? How bout the Rams after Vermeil left in '99. I think the Rams were not as good the following year. They did get better the next couple of seasons.Just don't be too naive that Vermeil leaving...and who's the head coach now? Is it not Herm Edwards? I'm not excited about him at the head of this ship. Edwards is a good coach but I think of him leading a team more like the Chargers than the Chiefs.
I live here in STL and I, as well as anyone who knows football, knows or should realize that is was 100% Mike Martz's system that led the 99 rams to the most points in NFL history and actually once Vermeil left the following year they put up better #'s on the offense in 2000 and then returned to the Superbowl the following year in 2001. The fact is they still have the same O-line and that 's what I'm interested in. The offense will change I'm sure but I'll still go L.J. over Portis and again I love Portis.
 
Cincinnati Bengals: Rudi Johnson will continue to be a potential 1200-1500 yd RB on the ground. He will continue to NOT be a dual threat. He will continue to be able to score at least 8-12+ TD on the ground…remind you of anyone? Perhaps, a young Corey Dillon? Good. Johnson should garner serious consideration at the middle to end of Round 1…I like a dual threat but he seems pretty reliable to score points…pair him with a little more explosive RB and you got something brewing there.
Don't discount Chris Perry since he has great hands and I can see him taking over more of Rudi's carries.
Good point
 
Chicago Bears: Benson will get his shot this year. You cannot draft a guy as high as they did and bench him going into his 2nd season at RB. Benson may have benefited from a light load as he took a lot of pounding in college and should be very fresh this year. I wouldn’t hesitate as long as he has a decent training camp in wanting to secure Benson in the draft. He could be a strong candidate for a big year. The Bears defense means they need to do very little on offense to win and Benson will get a lot of carries.
It is Jones' job until he loses it. The Bears will work Benson in more, but it's in their best interests to get as much as they can out of Jones and save Benson. After all, Jones has two years left on his contract and then he's probably gone. No need for the Bears push Benson in there just because he was a high pick. The situation will be similar to what the Bengals are doing with Rudi and Perry.
No, I disagree. Benson was a top5 pick...return on investment required. Look at San Diego and Drew Brees. Benson will get a lot more carries than TJ.
 
Chicago Bears: Benson will get his shot this year. You cannot draft a guy as high as they did and bench him going into his 2nd season at RB. Benson may have benefited from a light load as he took a lot of pounding in college and should be very fresh this year. I wouldn’t hesitate as long as he has a decent training camp in wanting to secure Benson in the draft. He could be a strong candidate for a big year. The Bears defense means they need to do very little on offense to win and Benson will get a lot of carries.
It is Jones' job until he loses it. The Bears will work Benson in more, but it's in their best interests to get as much as they can out of Jones and save Benson. After all, Jones has two years left on his contract and then he's probably gone. No need for the Bears push Benson in there just because he was a high pick. The situation will be similar to what the Bengals are doing with Rudi and Perry.
No, I disagree. Benson was a top5 pick...return on investment required. Look at San Diego and Drew Brees. Benson will get a lot more carries than TJ.
There's a big difference between a QB and a RB in terms of experience that is required. Brees wasn't the starter last year just because the team franchised him but also because he was proven and Rivers wasn't. In the Bears case, Jones is the proven back and there's no reason to bench him as long as he keeps producing. The Bears look at Benson as their back of the future so I don't think they want to risk injury more than they have to if Jones is getting the job done. It makes no sense for the Bears to bench Jones and not get every ounce of production they can out of him.

 
outstanding work, MOP...

have to side with cstu on CHI situation... do you mean, even if jones looks a lot better & gives them better chance to win... they will STILL insist on having his carries encroach on jones? as to brees, he may have still been with team if he hadn't blown his shoulder... that really clouded situation... like if jones blew out his knee... THEN i would be higher on benson.

you may be right... he could quickly bump jones out of the saddle... but if it goes down that way... imo, it will because benson outplays jones... not because they have to get value...

westbrook's value could get blown up if they draft lendale white... but it is important to make a distinction with westbrook... he is extremely underrated in PPR leagues... and without TO, & possible starting WRs second year reggie brown complemented by pinkston or gaffney (?), it is likely mcnabb continues to look for westbrook early & often in 2006... which could propel him to top 10 status with upside in PPR leagues when healthy on PPG basis... it has before.

 
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Droughns deserves more respect than what you are giving him. He finished as RB#14 in my league ahead of Davis, McGahee, Dillon, Parker, JJones.... The Clev O should take a slight uptick in '06 and it would not be surprising to see Droughns duplicate his '05 yardage with maybe 5-7 TDs. He will be a bargin for someone looking for their RB#2 in the 3rd rd.

Oh, yeah :thumbup: Nice writeup MOP!
I wrote:Cleveland Browns: Droughns piled up 1,500 yards so I think he proved that Denver was no fluke. However he only crossed the goal line twice all season and I don’t see things suddenly exploding in Cleveland. No RB is going to score 10 TD in the Cleveland offense this upcoming season…unless they address it in the draft somehow. I like RB with at least a lot of potential…Cleveland is not offering that right now.

I definitely respected him and you agree that 10 TD is not reality right now in this offense.

Glad you liked the write up...are you from Cleveland by chance?
I was focused more on the part in blue. A RB available in the 3rd with an excellent chance to be #8-12 has potential.Cleveland :angry: Nope, LA :yes:

 
Droughns deserves more respect than what you are giving him.  He finished as RB#14 in my league ahead of Davis, McGahee, Dillon, Parker, JJones....  The Clev O should take a slight uptick in '06 and it would not be surprising to see Droughns duplicate his '05 yardage with maybe 5-7 TDs. He will be a bargin for someone looking for their RB#2 in the 3rd rd.

Oh, yeah    :thumbup:   Nice writeup MOP!
I wrote:Cleveland Browns: Droughns piled up 1,500 yards so I think he proved that Denver was no fluke. However he only crossed the goal line twice all season and I don’t see things suddenly exploding in Cleveland. No RB is going to score 10 TD in the Cleveland offense this upcoming season…unless they address it in the draft somehow. I like RB with at least a lot of potential…Cleveland is not offering that right now.

I definitely respected him and you agree that 10 TD is not reality right now in this offense.

Glad you liked the write up...are you from Cleveland by chance?
I was focused more on the part in blue. A RB available in the 3rd with an excellent chance to be #8-12 has potential.Cleveland :angry: Nope, LA :yes:
Point taken. LA...you mean SoCal right?
 
I live here in STL and I, as well as anyone who knows football, knows or should realize that is was 100% Mike Martz's system that led the 99 rams to the most points in NFL history and actually once Vermeil left the following year they put up better #'s on the offense in 2000 and then returned to the Superbowl the following year in 2001. The fact is they still have the same O-line and that 's what I'm interested in. The offense will change I'm sure but I'll still go L.J. over Portis and again I love Portis.
Ah LJ. The man. The machine. The monster in red. 200 yds and 2 TDs in the bank every week. Thank you sir, may I have another? Thank you Messrs. Vermeil and Saunders.Whoops, let's not go too far now. LJ is still a beast and the KC line is still top 5 in the league. Although Edwards does make me nervous.

Let's put it this way. If Dickie V. and Saunders stay in KC, we rank as follows:

1. LJ no question for me. Not even close with Alexander being a less favored player because his game is kinda boring.

2. Sorry SA, you're a HOFer already. I've got mad respect, but no luv for your running style.

3. And LT having to deal with a rook at QB makes him less appealing.

4. Portis - looked really solid to finish last season as he always does.

But with Saunders in Wash, the RB tiers r a rocking mis amigos...

1. SA - too consistent. Better not be happy with contract and no ring.

2. LT - rook or not, the man's the overall best RB in the league. Hands down.

3/4. Portis/LJ - two studs. Portis has less upside and downside IMO. LJ is a beast but Edwards?

Oh man, if Saunders replicates the St L/KC offenses in Wash, Portis could be incredible. If he can stay healthy!

I'd take any of these four as my lead horse for next season.

 
No, I disagree. Benson was a top5 pick...return on investment required. Look at San Diego and Drew Brees. Benson will get a lot more carries than TJ.
Great example. Rivers sat on his tuchus for two years until the starter left the team.Benson will do the same.

 
Nice listing of RB insight. Good job.

Just wanted to point out the obvious about the LJ/Portis draft position discussion, if it hasnt already been pointed out. When **** Vermeil coached the Rams in his last year, the Superbowl year, Marshall Faulk had 12 combined TDs. AFTER he left, Faulk ran up 20plus TDs in back to back seasons...a record breaking 26 in '01. That was with a pass happy HC in Martz. So, worrying a whole helluva alot about LJ strugglin' because Vermeil is gone is going a little over the top. Go ahead and draft Portis in the 3 hole if you want and leave LJ hangin' out there for the next guy...that'll make for some funny stories later in the season....

 
And oh by the way, didnt Curtis Martin just have a career year 2 years ago with Herm Edwards calling the shots? Guy led the league in rushing and scored something like 14 TDs....good OLD Curtis? NFL rushing leader? Why are we sweating how Edwards will negatively affect LJs production when he helped a 30 something year old RB produce his best #s?

 
based on FA acqs, gibbs seems to be emulating tom moore of IND... use a spread offense as base... than run often against nickle & dime formations (more CB on field than LBs, who aren't typically as effective in run support).

i agree portis could have a monster year... i don't like him as much as LJ, LT & SA... but he belongs in ext tier as much as anybody... & he does have upside to make inroads in top 3 if he surprises in the TD department (above three are machines).

one thing about taking a cue from IND... opposing defenses who are faced with manning-led passing attack (49 TDs in 2004) not surprisingly sat back & preferred to let edge beat them slowly, instead of manning with quick strike offense.

brunell doesn't strike fear into a defense like manning, so it awaits to be seen if defenses will choose to defend portis more vigorously than his counterpart edge, & dare brunell to beat them?

 
the spread offense has been around a while... moore has just been one of the more successful with it in recent years...

there was a lot of talk about gibbs not putting portis in the best chance to succeed in 2004, at which point he began to incorporate some DEN type stretch run plays that fit his strengths... so it is possible that he is adapting the offenses he used in the past...

i don't think defenses fear brunell as much as manning... he did get a lot of TDs in second half, but i don't think he got over 200 yards in last 7 games...

if you were the DC... would you be more concerned with brunell or portis?

i think initially i would be more concerned about portis... but we'll see... if brunell starts tearing it up, DCs will have to adjust... portis might be able to eat nickle & dime formations alive...

edge exploited them often in 2005, and portis is far more explosive with better burst & suddenness than edge, at this stage of his career...

* good points about big three, & i'm sure many share your concerns.

KC OL is getting long in the tooth, there was even speculation that roaf & shields might retire... but they are back & continue to play at a high level... other than t-gon, they don't seem to have WR weapons that would be conducive to a massive change in philosophy away from run-centric approach... maybe if they get some better WRs in the future, that could change...

rivers is a big change at QB... though brees was less than stellar at first & LT still did well...

hutch hurts, though i like burleson addition... SA could lose 20% of his production & still be better than most RBs in the league... hard to assign a percentage to net impact of his loss... but i'm not expecting much bigger hit that that... though there was an interesting study i saw in shark pool (drinen, yudkin, other?) in which RBs who get as many carries as SA did last season can be prone to a severe drop off following season.

 
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i checked the FBG year end scoring summation out of curiosity... if you lop 25% of SA's scoring right off the top, he still has about 270... sandwiched between tiki & edge... that would drop him out of top 3 to 5... or would that be 4? :) because he was #1 last season...

good link... seems like a reasonable theory... the recent evidence is very suggestive...

 
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Actually Tom Moore has been running the spread a long time - and he is the only OC to have a 4000 yard passer, 1500 yard rusher and two 1000 yard receivers in the same season - and he did it TWICE. Once in Detroit (1995 with Scott Mitchell at QB).

Very nice analysis but I think a couple more areas need to be discussed.

Where do these rookies go - Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, Maurice Drew and Brian Calhoun?

If Houston takes Bush as expected, do they trade Davis and if so, to whom?

All of these rookies could have a big impact on the coming season. Here is how I see it at this time.

Bush goes to Houston and they keep Davis. You will get a TRUE RBBC situation with about a 50/50 share (think Miami last year). Both backs have durability concerns and by keeping both of them, Houston should have a top starter all year.

Philly takes LenDale White but only because the Jets take Ferguson. If the Jets pass on Ferguson don't be surprised if they fool everyone and go RB. I believe that they believe Patrick Ramsey can be their long term answer.

I am most interested in where DeAngelo Williams goes. I believe he will be this year's biggest rookie RB and will have a HoF career.

I believe Minnesota goes with Drew or Calhoun though many are projecting them to take Maroney. I just think that Drew and Calhoun give Childress a Brian Westbrook type back. I DON'T believe their current stable of undersized backs give them that. It wouldn't amaze me to see Onterrio Smith line up as the opening day starter.

I think Joseph Addai, on the right team, could be draft-worthy as a RB3 for most fantasy teams. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets get Addai in the second round which would give that offense a huge future.

If Williams falls to Denver, there are going to be a LOT of Tatum Bell owners that are very pi$$ed. If you know what I mean.

Maurice Drew and Brian Calhoun remind me a lot of Warrick Dunn - both are very good with the ball in their hands and are underrated because of their size. But both should be decent if not good backs at the NFL level.

 
AFC West:

Denver Broncos: Bell? Maybe. Someone not on the roster yet…possibly. Always the potential for big numbers but you will need at least 2 slots reserved to lock up the RB for this team. Bell gained over 5 yds a clip and scored 8 TD in an offense that scored 25 rushing TD and ranked 3rd in the NFL in that dept. He’s going to get some chances. He also totaled up over 1,000 yds rush/rec. Bell for now, and a few rounds you will need to lock up other RB on that team…maybe even the local high school the way Shanny can produce elite numbers from his RB slots.

[St. Louis Rams: No Martz, less sparx? Jackson put up 1,200 yds and about 10 TD last year so he should continue to do well. He is not anything like Faulk and I am afraid because he doesn’t share the same grace that one of those knees is going to eventually go poof and that turf they have…we’ll see.
Just a few quick observations1) Denver, this has been a roller coaster since Portis left. Not sure that Shanny likes Bell - all of the trade rumors, locking up Dayne and rumors of drafting a RB in the 1st round. Wouldn;t want to Commit to Bell here.

2) Stl - They have the turf grass now - so they are not playing on that cement anymore. He's just as likely to pop a knee as anypone else.

 
Actually Tom Moore has been running the spread a long time - and he is the only OC to have a 4000 yard passer, 1500 yard rusher and two 1000 yard receivers in the same season - and he did it TWICE. Once in Detroit (1995 with Scott Mitchell at QB).

Very nice analysis but I think a couple more areas need to be discussed.

Where do these rookies go - Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, LenDale White, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, Maurice Drew and Brian Calhoun?

If Houston takes Bush as expected, do they trade Davis and if so, to whom?

All of these rookies could have a big impact on the coming season. Here is how I see it at this time.

Bush goes to Houston and they keep Davis. You will get a TRUE RBBC situation with about a 50/50 share (think Miami last year). Both backs have durability concerns and by keeping both of them, Houston should have a top starter all year.

Philly takes LenDale White but only because the Jets take Ferguson. If the Jets pass on Ferguson don't be surprised if they fool everyone and go RB. I believe that they believe Patrick Ramsey can be their long term answer.

I am most interested in where DeAngelo Williams goes. I believe he will be this year's biggest rookie RB and will have a HoF career.

I believe Minnesota goes with Drew or Calhoun though many are projecting them to take Maroney. I just think that Drew and Calhoun give Childress a Brian Westbrook type back. I DON'T believe their current stable of undersized backs give them that. It wouldn't amaze me to see Onterrio Smith line up as the opening day starter.

I think Joseph Addai, on the right team, could be draft-worthy as a RB3 for most fantasy teams. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets get Addai in the second round which would give that offense a huge future.

If Williams falls to Denver, there are going to be a LOT of Tatum Bell owners that are very pi$$ed. If you know what I mean.

Maurice Drew and Brian Calhoun remind me a lot of Warrick Dunn - both are very good with the ball in their hands and are underrated because of their size. But both should be decent if not good backs at the NFL level.
This is excellent posting and please don't be shy in any threads I do analysis in. Great questions, observations, and the like, thanks.
 
This is excellent posting and please don't be shy in any threads I do analysis in. Great questions, observations, and the like, thanks.
Thanks MOP - I generally get so little time I just scan the titles for things that interest me and reply when I can. There is a ton of knowledge here so I try to sit back, read and learn.
 

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