Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I keep getting PMs and hints from folks to do something before the season starts. I gotta be honest and say that this year I have had a wait and see approach based on the way the Shark Pool is moving and also the shortened off season which I think hurts some of the players that are popular reaches for a lot of owners. I feel like it's better to go with what you know over what you don't know. I'm going to run through the RBs based on ADP, FBG rankings, and where I am seeing players go in these drafts. Felix Jones is not going in the 5th round, not even close in anything I have drafted in to this point. I say that because I see a lot of folks, even some FBG staff that have fairy tale drafts based on impossible players being available at different spots which is going to bring me to my first gripe and or observation of the 2011 season.
(4 letter expletive, starts with the letter F) having the perfect draft. 1st of all, you would never have the perfect draft if you play in one of my leagues. And if it is mostly comprised of FBG which many of the ones I commish are...you can just cross every sleeper and value play off your list now. I am not taking pot shots at David Dodds, in fact I absolutely love reading the perfect draft article, I open immediately once it's done, loaded with good ideas. Problem is at the end of the day I want the guys I want, and when you combine that article with the "Get your stink off the roster" I usually look like a Los Angeles Noob trying to navigate the 405 and the 110 interchange for the first time.
I don't like being stuck with players that I don't really like. I was reading a post, cannot remember the poster's name and he was actually trying to zing me but he made a great statement along the way which was if you feel a player is not worth their ADP or you wouldn't draft him then why is he even on your list? I am not going to go through every player but there are definitely players that I don't want any part of and quietly have a small celebration internally every time they come off the board in these drafts. So before I get into this I want to stress that I am a gigantic proponent of believing in yourself and getting the guys you want.
When these drafts take place you typically draw a slot from 1-12 and that is your slot throughout the draft. The next thing that happens is the first 50 players come flying off the board in some order fairly close to what they are projected to do and also unfortunately based on what the player did the year before. Some of you are saying, what else is there to base it on? I understand that POV, I'm just stating the facts, if that makes you uncomfortable then look inside yourself not pointing fingers at me. I'm just here to ask questions and get you to think a little bit for yourself. Now the good news is you are here...why does that matter you ask? There are millions of FF owners or folks who play in some form of this game and yet there are probably less than 250-500 of you that frequent the message boards and post...I haven't seen us crack 750 member yet in the SP this year even when major news or injuries hit. So the reality is very few people are going to walk into your local leagues and have half the information you have rolling around in your head. This is good and bad as I'll explain. The bad is simple, most locals don't really get ADP, usually have outdated info, and they panic after the household names come off the board. But these sons of female dogs can ruin you if you wait too long on the players you covet the most. I'm not advocating that you grab Colt McCoy in the 2nd round because you feel he is a breakout candidate, but I am saying that if you really want him and his ADP is rounds 14-15, you might wan to grab him a round or two earlier to ensure you get the guy you want. Now you can name 10 other QBs that might have as good if not better numbers but that is based on someone else's projections and opinions, not yours necessarily.
I'm going to go through these mostly in buckets/tiers or rounds and then turn it over to you all. I don't have pages of stats or nu wave theories about RB ratings and waiting until the 10th round to draft your 1st RB...but I gotta tell you those pieces have allowed me to see things from other perspectives and I can tell the way folks are drafting in the SSLs and also the $125k that FBG is hosting(well worth the $350) that many of these folks are reading the articles and then putting them to work...my advice is use it your advantage.
Tier 1-Early 1st
The suspects...ADP, A.Foster, J.Charles, C.Johnson, Shady, Ray Rice
If you are picking in the top half of the 1st round you likely are going to be looking at these 6 guys. If you have the #1 pick there is no other correct answer than Adrian Peterson right now. Foster's hammy is starting to spook me and also makes me think we have a 3 headed thing developing in Houston later on down the road. Kubiak can say what he wants right now but things have a way of changing as the season progresses. It might pan out for Foster after week 3 or 4, but that's a lot of unnecessary risk if you have the 1st pick. If you still want Foster and love the upside, I can't blame you but where you take him is just dependent on your risk tolerance...and judging by the Shark Pool threads we have the most conservative bunch of FF owners East of the Mississippi...I have ADP at the 1.01, previously would have been Foster. ADP has a solid QB in place despite what many critics say, the offense will go through him, he's a bellcow, I shouldn't have to sell him to you.
I have another RB that I would add to this group but I will save him for the next tier or two (Bankerguy, Steel Dillo, and the US12 crew already know who I am hinting at) as that is where he typically is drafted.
Next I would likely lean towards Johnson. I had someone tell me today how often players get hurt when they miss camp...Johnson is special and I understand why people pass on him but he is going to sign, both sides need each other and Johnson is not going to turn down big money when it is all said and done. The problem is the Titans had not even started to get their ducks in a row and just hoped or assumed he would show up for whatever he was getting this year...fat chance Titans. But if you pass on Johnson you can find another guy I like a lot in PPR and that is Shady McCoy. The Eagles OL is not very good but I do like McCoy and think he will do plenty of damage. Ronnie Brown does not hurt Shady but I think he will help keep a fringe(meaning not built like ADP) RB1 healthy for much of the season. I like Shady and I like the Eagles a whole heckuva lot.
Jamaal Charles scares me a little at the top and mostly I am frustrated with his HC. If you don't mind the situation then go for him but I am thinking he doesn't live up to his draft spot this year. KC has OL problems and they have been moving guys on and off the roster, I just don't like what I am seeing and Haley isn't as good as he thinks he is.
Ray Rice is a solid option as well. Sure he won't have a lot of big 30+ point games but he is much more consistent then many give him credit for. He started slow last year but in the middle of the season he was top5 for sure. He's not sexy but he will get the job done and anchor your RBs.
After those guys go...
Tier 1B- Mid to late 1st...Mendenhall and DMC
Those 2 guys typically go in the 1st round somewhere, usually towards the end after the top 3-4 WRs come off the board and maybe a QB. I'm not going to sugarcoat my feelings here...Mendenhall or find another RB from the next couple tiers. I know the DMC fans are gonna want to come full force at me, I simply cannot get behind him right now. Oakland to me just looks like a bad team, poor coach compared to the other 31 in the NFL, have a lot of holes, rookies, and questions along their OL as well. Why take that risk when you can have Mendy who has a strong QB leading the way? It just doesn't make sense and yet I see more owners take DMC before Mendy. But if you have to swing upside and for the fences in the 1st, be my guest.
Tier 2- Round 2...MJD, Gore, Forte, SJax, M.Turner(non PPR, .5PPR), P.Hillis
There are some really good RBs here. The good news is most of these guys have proven they can tote the rock and their teams typically try and get them 18-20+ touches. The guy I like the most of this group right now is probably MJD. For those that look at the rankings by all the staff you will see that Jeff Tefertiller has him rated #2 on his board...#2!!! JT and I talk all the time and we bounce ideas around, he's a huge MJD fan and I'm not suggesting you take him at the 1.02 like I did in US12, that might be too much of a leap for some. The guy is 1 year removed from a top 3-5 year. If he had duplicated it last year he would go #2 overall IMO. His offense isn't that good, but there really is not a prolific receiver anywhere on that offense(can it Thomas owners). He should catch 50+ balls easy. I think he stands out as a 2nd round steal right now.
Next would be 2 more backs that I like a lot and people are just overlooking for very strange and bias reasons. I was wrong about Hillis last year and I don't need to make the same mistake again. He won't be good all the time but much of the time he is a bell cow, he runs over anyone that tries to get in his way(usually rare in the NFL), he's a 3 down back, he runs fly patterns up the sidelines because they have no WRs and also he has incredible athleticism for a LB in an RBs body. The other guy getting sorely overlooked is Michael Turner. If you have one of slots 1-3 we'll say...forget going WR/WR on the 2-3 turn, go ahead and lock up your RB2 and feel good about it. I promise you when we get to the round 4/5/6 segment of this program I am gonna make you cry so don't say I didn't warn you in advance. Michael Turner has the best passing game he has ever seen in Atlanta clearing the way for him. I think he's a shoe in for 1,200 and 12 TDs in that offense. He is not old, he is not breaking down, he simply was hurt last season and his numbers reflect that. He took the FF world by storm in 2008, had a nice 2009, then things went the wrong way last year. I like him to bounce back like MJD which is why you can get them where you can. I have seen Turner go in the 3rd, even early 4th but you are gambling and if you miss him the drop off gets steep quickly.
The other backs...SJax-wake me up when he has a big year again because time is running out on him. M.Forte wants a new contract, has a stinky OL, and I just flat like other backs better at this point in the draft. Forte could be a big bust for owners this year. Finally, we have Frank Gore and when he is on he's top5. I like him paired with one of the top6 but I see Gore typically picked in the early mid 2nd as an RB1 for most teams. Better handcuff him if you do. Also the 49ers look like hell right now.
Tier 3- Round 3...Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, DWill, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram
This is a tricky tier because several teams will wait until the 3rd round to grab their RB1. Because of this many panic or feel they are entitled to reach a good round early from where many of their ADPs actually are. In my leagues someone is always grabbing these guys well ahead of their ADP. Majority of these guys I like but to different degrees.
I don't like Best all that much and basically the health is my issue as he seems ready to be injured at any moment. Not a guy I sleep better knowing he's on my team, much prefer someone else taking him early 3rd. Felix Jones also offers some big upside but also offers a lot of risk. Is that what you want for your RB1? Risk management and overall fit for a team are very important. The way I might like Felix best is if he is your RB2 in RD 3, but you plan on going 3 deep at RB inside of 6 rounds then I might like Felix a lot more. I haven't talked much about best ball but when you have to actually fill a line up out weekly like in the FBG $125k contest, you don't want to be pushed into a corner. Best ball makes clustering a group of 4th and 5th tier type RBs a lot easier to cover up your RB2.
Ahmad Bradshaw was a guy I loved when he came into the league. I still like him but passed on him quite often in the redrafts for another back, that being DeAngelo Williams. I understand things are not great in Carolina but they made a major commitment to DeAngelo and I expect him to get a lot of work. He has a 20 TD season on his resume, still in his prime, expect 300 touches this year.
Blount could backfire on folks. Again, as an RB2, going to get your RB3 by Round 6/7 then I'm a lot more comfortable with Blount. I don't see anyone right now on the Bucs roster that could unseat him. Blount continues to show me flashes of immaturity still and that's not good.
Finally if you want Mark Ingram you are going to have to reach for him a little bit. I think early on you will see a lot of Pierre Thomas and then Ingram getting more and more touches as the season moves along and then as he hits that rookie wall I expect to see a lot more Pierre Thomas towards the FF playoffs which is when the Saints will want to keep Ingram fresh for the playoffs. Bottom line I think Ingram can get 250 carries and a decent amount of receptions. He might be a double digit TD maker as a rookie too. I like him but understand he will be splitting time early in the season as he learns the ropes.
Before going into the next tier, please understand I am just grouping these mostly on their ADP right now. For example, I think MJD is a tier 1 type but you can get him in the early 2nd so I just left him where he was. I'm not tiering(made up word) these in the order I would take them but mostly based on their draft position and where you have to grab them.
Tier 4- Rounds 4 and 5...Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, Knowshon Moreno
If you want to mail it in for your FF leagues, make one of these 3 guys your main RB this year. I don't really like them as RB2 types either. This is why you have to grab that RB on the ⅔ turn, otherwise you end up with a doo doo bag on the 4-5 turn. Mathews will share a lot of touches with Mike Tolbert, Greene with others plus I don't like his running style, and finally Moreno is going to have to share with McGahee who many like better and you can get in about 5-6 rounds so why burn the pick on Moreno?
Not to mention the fact that you can get an awesome combo at WR in the 4th and 5th rounds like Brandon Lloyd and Mario Manningham, add that into you WR stables instead of one of these turds that is going to make you pull your hair out on Sundays. Let someone else enjoy the risk here. "But MOP"...NO BUTTS, this is not the Shuke Booty thread.
Now some of the RBs I mentioned in tier 3 will fall into round 4 and if they do and you like them, great jump all over them but I am not going to be naive enough to tell you that those backs will be there because many times they are not. The reason why they go ahead of their ADPs IMO is this last little tier I just went over. You will not be the only person who is uncomfortable with Mathews, Greene, and Moreno so you need to adjust accordingly.
What about Tim Hightower? Drafted last night in what I would call an inferior league but he went in the middle of the 5th so he's not a well kept secret. I like THT but again you are going to need another RB to pair with him as your RB2. There are several THT threads I posted in if you want to know more about him. I am starting to feel like both Torrain and Helu will be used extensively along with THT but it's not clear that you can count on 275-300 touches out of him.
Tier 5- Rounds 6 and 7...Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, Chris Wells, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush
Right away I will tell you that Chris Wells ends up being taken a lot of the time in the 5th round, someone always loves him because he's the only RB left in Arizona...as if that's a reason by itself to draft someone. He is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL so if that statement doesn't sum up my feelings I'm not sure what else will. Again the little internal celebration button goes off when Wells comes off the board. You want to bring knives to a gunfight then by all means take Wells.
Benson will get 300 carries and produce ho hum numbers, not much upside but he is serving his prison sentence now so he will be free by opening day. I wondered why they would send him in October, this makes much more sense. Would I draft Benson? I would take him if he fell to the end of the 6th where I see him go some of the time but I also see him go as an early 6th and there are others I like better in this tier although I'm not wild about having to start any of these guys. Best Ball? Sure, but when you have to wheel out Benson as a weekly starter you are losing some serious punch on the roster.
Ryan Grant seemed like a steal to me in the 6th or 7th round but it seems there is a lot of talk that Starks will take his job. Seems like a split to me, doubtful that Starks makes Grant a side dish for the entire season. Another landmine I see is the sudden surge and interest in Reggie Bush. Don't be a sucker, that guy never stays healthy and the Miami offense is not as good as some are trying to pimp it as. Bush could not make it happen with a buttload of talent around him in New Orleans and a much better OLine. now suddenly the light goes on with an inferior offense? I'll pass, let someone else take the risk as I scoop up my WR3 that will perform more like a WR2.
Lot of people like to scoop up Fred Jackson and I think that's a mistake. He is a solid RB, he is a guy I root for because I like his atitude, but at the end of the day he isn't going to propel you very far. To me he is a "possible" bye week fill in and not much more. CJ Spiller is going to get the ball more this season, and if not then Buddy Nix or whatever that yahoo is acting as the GM is gonna look really foolish.
This leaves both Lynch and Addai. I told you the 4/5/6 rounds get brutal. Lynch is battling some ankle injuries and the offense right now doesn't look a whole lot better than the 49ers. Lynch has some upside and I like Tom Cable taking over the OL, the addition of Gallery inside next to Okung, that said so far this offense lacks any QB leadership adn that always is a major turn off for me. Addai is being overlooked and I know the Dyansty Nuts take over the Shark Pool and start raving about Delone Carter. I like Carter but Addai was resigned and he will be out there much of the time trying to help in pass protection for Peyton Manning , something he excels at. Look for Addai if healthy to put up solid RB2 numbers and that folks is your life preserver in this tier. Addai can be had on the 6/7 turn and I like him as an RB3 with RB2 upside, maybe even higher if he remains healthy all season.
Tier 6- Rounds 8, 9, and 10...JStew, BJGE, Daniel Thomas, CJ Spiller, Mike Tolbert, James Starks, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Michael Bush, Willis McGahee
This is a lot of RBs and the good news is most of them come at an affordable price. Some of them I like, some not so much. Let's start with the good. BJGE is going ot lead the way for NE this season. Unless he is hurt I expect them to go with BJGE, especially arund the goal line. New England has brought in a couple new backs but that doesn't mean they ahve to play them right away. You can always take BJGE in the 8th and then pair him with one of the rookies much later in the draft. BJGE makes a great RB3 on almost any roster. He might lose some yards this year but I think he can squeeze out double digit TDs again.
Mike Tolbert is going to get touches but probably not more than about 40-45% at most so he really is a bye week filler unless Mathews goes down which could happen. I wouldn't reach for him though. Brandon Jacobs seems like free money now. he was never a bargain in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds like in previous years but in the 9th? He is going to get a lot more work than people realize and he is a bull around the goal line. he makes a perfect RB3 for bye weeks and I think they will use him a little more in the ground game outside the Red Zone.
Last guy I have a mild interest in from this tier is probably McGahee just because Fox likes to run it, run it, and run it some more. McGahee should burn whatever tread is left on his tires this season in Denver. Daniel Thomas looks like one of the worst rookie RBs in this class so far. I was doing the game recap for Miami-TB last week which you can find in Joe's email update last night. I have been following the Dolphins, live down here in Miami, not impressed, in fact appalled would be the better term.
I mentioned Pierre Thomas earlier and I think he will make a very nice 1-2 punch with Ingram. I believe you will see him scoring well on the stat sheet early and also later in the season as they ease Mark Ingram into things and then try to keep him fresh for their playoff run.
The Great Beyond- Rounds 11 and so forth...
I'm not going to touch on all of them but I will say that all players after about the 9th or 10th round are in play so if you like a guy take him. I have a few rules though...
1. Get your handcuff in the 10th or 11th round. Don't leave Ben Tate and Derrick Ward out there too long, or Javon Ringer who you might need early on, or Ronnie Brown as he seems to be slowly easing into things and looks pretty good to this point...all I'm saying is back your early round investments up. Guys like Jason Snelling are worth more to the Michael Turner owner than anyone else so why not get him and let him occupy your RB5 slot. Jeff Pasquino gets the credit for this rule and I tend to make it a priority so I am not trying to battle the waiver wire or blind bids in my moment of need.
2. Consider some late round combos to help find one decent guy to keep. For example I like to pair Danny Woodhead with Ridley or Vereen and figure one of them is going to pan out as a great flex option throughout the season. It doesn't cost you much and it shores up your RB3/4 type slots. And in best ball they are worth even more.
3. Take a very late round flyer on Larry Johnson. I say this as I saw him do something that Miami doesn't have on the roster when he played the other night. He took his 2nd hand off and made a nice cut to gain 5 yards, no one had done that all night. He has better moves at 31 than Thomas has at 21. The sent Thomas back in after LJ took a couple touches and I really think it was to show Thomas what he needs to do. If I'm wrong you can simply cut him, we're talking 20th round here. Miami IMO is still a very unsettled position and once Bush ends up injured Miami is going to be in a world of hurt at RB. And if not LJ, find a guy that you think will have huge upside if he gets on the field. Thats why I like guys such as Kendall Hunter in SF, Ben Tate in Houston, Powell in New York, Helu in Washington, Murray in Dallas...and my last late round flyer types and Harrison in Detroit, they need him to perform to help lighten the load and he has flashed some skills in the past. These backs should they get on the field have quite a bit of surrounding talent that would make them look better than perhaps their actual talent since they are RB2/3 positions on their teams for a reason.
So let me land the plane before the Sons of Liberty come crashing in here ready to tar and feather me(Hi Tim). If you already drafted and you feel offended because I went after some of the guys sitting on your roster or perhaps didn't give them all the credit you think they deserve...I really don't care. And what I mean is I'm not interested in the fancy technical stats that Chase Stuart can whip up at a moments notice(I'm just jealous that he knows so much). This was more about the big ole MOP gut. I'm not interested in trying to prove you wrong or myself right, this is simply based on what I have observed, the off season movement, the OL in place for some of these teams, and finally where guys are valued at right now. It is about how certain guys will fit on your roster. If you need clarification and you don't want to ask on the boards, just shoot me a PM. Ask anyone who sends them to me, I'm as nice as could be, and will be happy to converse back and forth with you. I write in a conversational way for a reason. You all are smart, you show up here and do your homework, time to go out and kick ###. Have a fantastic Labor Day Weekend everyone!!!
(4 letter expletive, starts with the letter F) having the perfect draft. 1st of all, you would never have the perfect draft if you play in one of my leagues. And if it is mostly comprised of FBG which many of the ones I commish are...you can just cross every sleeper and value play off your list now. I am not taking pot shots at David Dodds, in fact I absolutely love reading the perfect draft article, I open immediately once it's done, loaded with good ideas. Problem is at the end of the day I want the guys I want, and when you combine that article with the "Get your stink off the roster" I usually look like a Los Angeles Noob trying to navigate the 405 and the 110 interchange for the first time.
I don't like being stuck with players that I don't really like. I was reading a post, cannot remember the poster's name and he was actually trying to zing me but he made a great statement along the way which was if you feel a player is not worth their ADP or you wouldn't draft him then why is he even on your list? I am not going to go through every player but there are definitely players that I don't want any part of and quietly have a small celebration internally every time they come off the board in these drafts. So before I get into this I want to stress that I am a gigantic proponent of believing in yourself and getting the guys you want.
When these drafts take place you typically draw a slot from 1-12 and that is your slot throughout the draft. The next thing that happens is the first 50 players come flying off the board in some order fairly close to what they are projected to do and also unfortunately based on what the player did the year before. Some of you are saying, what else is there to base it on? I understand that POV, I'm just stating the facts, if that makes you uncomfortable then look inside yourself not pointing fingers at me. I'm just here to ask questions and get you to think a little bit for yourself. Now the good news is you are here...why does that matter you ask? There are millions of FF owners or folks who play in some form of this game and yet there are probably less than 250-500 of you that frequent the message boards and post...I haven't seen us crack 750 member yet in the SP this year even when major news or injuries hit. So the reality is very few people are going to walk into your local leagues and have half the information you have rolling around in your head. This is good and bad as I'll explain. The bad is simple, most locals don't really get ADP, usually have outdated info, and they panic after the household names come off the board. But these sons of female dogs can ruin you if you wait too long on the players you covet the most. I'm not advocating that you grab Colt McCoy in the 2nd round because you feel he is a breakout candidate, but I am saying that if you really want him and his ADP is rounds 14-15, you might wan to grab him a round or two earlier to ensure you get the guy you want. Now you can name 10 other QBs that might have as good if not better numbers but that is based on someone else's projections and opinions, not yours necessarily.
I'm going to go through these mostly in buckets/tiers or rounds and then turn it over to you all. I don't have pages of stats or nu wave theories about RB ratings and waiting until the 10th round to draft your 1st RB...but I gotta tell you those pieces have allowed me to see things from other perspectives and I can tell the way folks are drafting in the SSLs and also the $125k that FBG is hosting(well worth the $350) that many of these folks are reading the articles and then putting them to work...my advice is use it your advantage.
Tier 1-Early 1st
The suspects...ADP, A.Foster, J.Charles, C.Johnson, Shady, Ray Rice
If you are picking in the top half of the 1st round you likely are going to be looking at these 6 guys. If you have the #1 pick there is no other correct answer than Adrian Peterson right now. Foster's hammy is starting to spook me and also makes me think we have a 3 headed thing developing in Houston later on down the road. Kubiak can say what he wants right now but things have a way of changing as the season progresses. It might pan out for Foster after week 3 or 4, but that's a lot of unnecessary risk if you have the 1st pick. If you still want Foster and love the upside, I can't blame you but where you take him is just dependent on your risk tolerance...and judging by the Shark Pool threads we have the most conservative bunch of FF owners East of the Mississippi...I have ADP at the 1.01, previously would have been Foster. ADP has a solid QB in place despite what many critics say, the offense will go through him, he's a bellcow, I shouldn't have to sell him to you.
I have another RB that I would add to this group but I will save him for the next tier or two (Bankerguy, Steel Dillo, and the US12 crew already know who I am hinting at) as that is where he typically is drafted.
Next I would likely lean towards Johnson. I had someone tell me today how often players get hurt when they miss camp...Johnson is special and I understand why people pass on him but he is going to sign, both sides need each other and Johnson is not going to turn down big money when it is all said and done. The problem is the Titans had not even started to get their ducks in a row and just hoped or assumed he would show up for whatever he was getting this year...fat chance Titans. But if you pass on Johnson you can find another guy I like a lot in PPR and that is Shady McCoy. The Eagles OL is not very good but I do like McCoy and think he will do plenty of damage. Ronnie Brown does not hurt Shady but I think he will help keep a fringe(meaning not built like ADP) RB1 healthy for much of the season. I like Shady and I like the Eagles a whole heckuva lot.
Jamaal Charles scares me a little at the top and mostly I am frustrated with his HC. If you don't mind the situation then go for him but I am thinking he doesn't live up to his draft spot this year. KC has OL problems and they have been moving guys on and off the roster, I just don't like what I am seeing and Haley isn't as good as he thinks he is.
Ray Rice is a solid option as well. Sure he won't have a lot of big 30+ point games but he is much more consistent then many give him credit for. He started slow last year but in the middle of the season he was top5 for sure. He's not sexy but he will get the job done and anchor your RBs.
After those guys go...
Tier 1B- Mid to late 1st...Mendenhall and DMC
Those 2 guys typically go in the 1st round somewhere, usually towards the end after the top 3-4 WRs come off the board and maybe a QB. I'm not going to sugarcoat my feelings here...Mendenhall or find another RB from the next couple tiers. I know the DMC fans are gonna want to come full force at me, I simply cannot get behind him right now. Oakland to me just looks like a bad team, poor coach compared to the other 31 in the NFL, have a lot of holes, rookies, and questions along their OL as well. Why take that risk when you can have Mendy who has a strong QB leading the way? It just doesn't make sense and yet I see more owners take DMC before Mendy. But if you have to swing upside and for the fences in the 1st, be my guest.
Tier 2- Round 2...MJD, Gore, Forte, SJax, M.Turner(non PPR, .5PPR), P.Hillis
There are some really good RBs here. The good news is most of these guys have proven they can tote the rock and their teams typically try and get them 18-20+ touches. The guy I like the most of this group right now is probably MJD. For those that look at the rankings by all the staff you will see that Jeff Tefertiller has him rated #2 on his board...#2!!! JT and I talk all the time and we bounce ideas around, he's a huge MJD fan and I'm not suggesting you take him at the 1.02 like I did in US12, that might be too much of a leap for some. The guy is 1 year removed from a top 3-5 year. If he had duplicated it last year he would go #2 overall IMO. His offense isn't that good, but there really is not a prolific receiver anywhere on that offense(can it Thomas owners). He should catch 50+ balls easy. I think he stands out as a 2nd round steal right now.
Next would be 2 more backs that I like a lot and people are just overlooking for very strange and bias reasons. I was wrong about Hillis last year and I don't need to make the same mistake again. He won't be good all the time but much of the time he is a bell cow, he runs over anyone that tries to get in his way(usually rare in the NFL), he's a 3 down back, he runs fly patterns up the sidelines because they have no WRs and also he has incredible athleticism for a LB in an RBs body. The other guy getting sorely overlooked is Michael Turner. If you have one of slots 1-3 we'll say...forget going WR/WR on the 2-3 turn, go ahead and lock up your RB2 and feel good about it. I promise you when we get to the round 4/5/6 segment of this program I am gonna make you cry so don't say I didn't warn you in advance. Michael Turner has the best passing game he has ever seen in Atlanta clearing the way for him. I think he's a shoe in for 1,200 and 12 TDs in that offense. He is not old, he is not breaking down, he simply was hurt last season and his numbers reflect that. He took the FF world by storm in 2008, had a nice 2009, then things went the wrong way last year. I like him to bounce back like MJD which is why you can get them where you can. I have seen Turner go in the 3rd, even early 4th but you are gambling and if you miss him the drop off gets steep quickly.
The other backs...SJax-wake me up when he has a big year again because time is running out on him. M.Forte wants a new contract, has a stinky OL, and I just flat like other backs better at this point in the draft. Forte could be a big bust for owners this year. Finally, we have Frank Gore and when he is on he's top5. I like him paired with one of the top6 but I see Gore typically picked in the early mid 2nd as an RB1 for most teams. Better handcuff him if you do. Also the 49ers look like hell right now.
Tier 3- Round 3...Jahvid Best, Felix Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, DWill, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram
This is a tricky tier because several teams will wait until the 3rd round to grab their RB1. Because of this many panic or feel they are entitled to reach a good round early from where many of their ADPs actually are. In my leagues someone is always grabbing these guys well ahead of their ADP. Majority of these guys I like but to different degrees.
I don't like Best all that much and basically the health is my issue as he seems ready to be injured at any moment. Not a guy I sleep better knowing he's on my team, much prefer someone else taking him early 3rd. Felix Jones also offers some big upside but also offers a lot of risk. Is that what you want for your RB1? Risk management and overall fit for a team are very important. The way I might like Felix best is if he is your RB2 in RD 3, but you plan on going 3 deep at RB inside of 6 rounds then I might like Felix a lot more. I haven't talked much about best ball but when you have to actually fill a line up out weekly like in the FBG $125k contest, you don't want to be pushed into a corner. Best ball makes clustering a group of 4th and 5th tier type RBs a lot easier to cover up your RB2.
Ahmad Bradshaw was a guy I loved when he came into the league. I still like him but passed on him quite often in the redrafts for another back, that being DeAngelo Williams. I understand things are not great in Carolina but they made a major commitment to DeAngelo and I expect him to get a lot of work. He has a 20 TD season on his resume, still in his prime, expect 300 touches this year.
Blount could backfire on folks. Again, as an RB2, going to get your RB3 by Round 6/7 then I'm a lot more comfortable with Blount. I don't see anyone right now on the Bucs roster that could unseat him. Blount continues to show me flashes of immaturity still and that's not good.
Finally if you want Mark Ingram you are going to have to reach for him a little bit. I think early on you will see a lot of Pierre Thomas and then Ingram getting more and more touches as the season moves along and then as he hits that rookie wall I expect to see a lot more Pierre Thomas towards the FF playoffs which is when the Saints will want to keep Ingram fresh for the playoffs. Bottom line I think Ingram can get 250 carries and a decent amount of receptions. He might be a double digit TD maker as a rookie too. I like him but understand he will be splitting time early in the season as he learns the ropes.
Before going into the next tier, please understand I am just grouping these mostly on their ADP right now. For example, I think MJD is a tier 1 type but you can get him in the early 2nd so I just left him where he was. I'm not tiering(made up word) these in the order I would take them but mostly based on their draft position and where you have to grab them.
Tier 4- Rounds 4 and 5...Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, Knowshon Moreno
If you want to mail it in for your FF leagues, make one of these 3 guys your main RB this year. I don't really like them as RB2 types either. This is why you have to grab that RB on the ⅔ turn, otherwise you end up with a doo doo bag on the 4-5 turn. Mathews will share a lot of touches with Mike Tolbert, Greene with others plus I don't like his running style, and finally Moreno is going to have to share with McGahee who many like better and you can get in about 5-6 rounds so why burn the pick on Moreno?
Not to mention the fact that you can get an awesome combo at WR in the 4th and 5th rounds like Brandon Lloyd and Mario Manningham, add that into you WR stables instead of one of these turds that is going to make you pull your hair out on Sundays. Let someone else enjoy the risk here. "But MOP"...NO BUTTS, this is not the Shuke Booty thread.
Now some of the RBs I mentioned in tier 3 will fall into round 4 and if they do and you like them, great jump all over them but I am not going to be naive enough to tell you that those backs will be there because many times they are not. The reason why they go ahead of their ADPs IMO is this last little tier I just went over. You will not be the only person who is uncomfortable with Mathews, Greene, and Moreno so you need to adjust accordingly.
What about Tim Hightower? Drafted last night in what I would call an inferior league but he went in the middle of the 5th so he's not a well kept secret. I like THT but again you are going to need another RB to pair with him as your RB2. There are several THT threads I posted in if you want to know more about him. I am starting to feel like both Torrain and Helu will be used extensively along with THT but it's not clear that you can count on 275-300 touches out of him.
Tier 5- Rounds 6 and 7...Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, Chris Wells, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush
Right away I will tell you that Chris Wells ends up being taken a lot of the time in the 5th round, someone always loves him because he's the only RB left in Arizona...as if that's a reason by itself to draft someone. He is one of the worst starting RBs in the NFL so if that statement doesn't sum up my feelings I'm not sure what else will. Again the little internal celebration button goes off when Wells comes off the board. You want to bring knives to a gunfight then by all means take Wells.
Benson will get 300 carries and produce ho hum numbers, not much upside but he is serving his prison sentence now so he will be free by opening day. I wondered why they would send him in October, this makes much more sense. Would I draft Benson? I would take him if he fell to the end of the 6th where I see him go some of the time but I also see him go as an early 6th and there are others I like better in this tier although I'm not wild about having to start any of these guys. Best Ball? Sure, but when you have to wheel out Benson as a weekly starter you are losing some serious punch on the roster.
Ryan Grant seemed like a steal to me in the 6th or 7th round but it seems there is a lot of talk that Starks will take his job. Seems like a split to me, doubtful that Starks makes Grant a side dish for the entire season. Another landmine I see is the sudden surge and interest in Reggie Bush. Don't be a sucker, that guy never stays healthy and the Miami offense is not as good as some are trying to pimp it as. Bush could not make it happen with a buttload of talent around him in New Orleans and a much better OLine. now suddenly the light goes on with an inferior offense? I'll pass, let someone else take the risk as I scoop up my WR3 that will perform more like a WR2.
Lot of people like to scoop up Fred Jackson and I think that's a mistake. He is a solid RB, he is a guy I root for because I like his atitude, but at the end of the day he isn't going to propel you very far. To me he is a "possible" bye week fill in and not much more. CJ Spiller is going to get the ball more this season, and if not then Buddy Nix or whatever that yahoo is acting as the GM is gonna look really foolish.
This leaves both Lynch and Addai. I told you the 4/5/6 rounds get brutal. Lynch is battling some ankle injuries and the offense right now doesn't look a whole lot better than the 49ers. Lynch has some upside and I like Tom Cable taking over the OL, the addition of Gallery inside next to Okung, that said so far this offense lacks any QB leadership adn that always is a major turn off for me. Addai is being overlooked and I know the Dyansty Nuts take over the Shark Pool and start raving about Delone Carter. I like Carter but Addai was resigned and he will be out there much of the time trying to help in pass protection for Peyton Manning , something he excels at. Look for Addai if healthy to put up solid RB2 numbers and that folks is your life preserver in this tier. Addai can be had on the 6/7 turn and I like him as an RB3 with RB2 upside, maybe even higher if he remains healthy all season.
Tier 6- Rounds 8, 9, and 10...JStew, BJGE, Daniel Thomas, CJ Spiller, Mike Tolbert, James Starks, Brandon Jacobs, Pierre Thomas, Michael Bush, Willis McGahee
This is a lot of RBs and the good news is most of them come at an affordable price. Some of them I like, some not so much. Let's start with the good. BJGE is going ot lead the way for NE this season. Unless he is hurt I expect them to go with BJGE, especially arund the goal line. New England has brought in a couple new backs but that doesn't mean they ahve to play them right away. You can always take BJGE in the 8th and then pair him with one of the rookies much later in the draft. BJGE makes a great RB3 on almost any roster. He might lose some yards this year but I think he can squeeze out double digit TDs again.
Mike Tolbert is going to get touches but probably not more than about 40-45% at most so he really is a bye week filler unless Mathews goes down which could happen. I wouldn't reach for him though. Brandon Jacobs seems like free money now. he was never a bargain in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounds like in previous years but in the 9th? He is going to get a lot more work than people realize and he is a bull around the goal line. he makes a perfect RB3 for bye weeks and I think they will use him a little more in the ground game outside the Red Zone.
Last guy I have a mild interest in from this tier is probably McGahee just because Fox likes to run it, run it, and run it some more. McGahee should burn whatever tread is left on his tires this season in Denver. Daniel Thomas looks like one of the worst rookie RBs in this class so far. I was doing the game recap for Miami-TB last week which you can find in Joe's email update last night. I have been following the Dolphins, live down here in Miami, not impressed, in fact appalled would be the better term.
I mentioned Pierre Thomas earlier and I think he will make a very nice 1-2 punch with Ingram. I believe you will see him scoring well on the stat sheet early and also later in the season as they ease Mark Ingram into things and then try to keep him fresh for their playoff run.
The Great Beyond- Rounds 11 and so forth...
I'm not going to touch on all of them but I will say that all players after about the 9th or 10th round are in play so if you like a guy take him. I have a few rules though...
1. Get your handcuff in the 10th or 11th round. Don't leave Ben Tate and Derrick Ward out there too long, or Javon Ringer who you might need early on, or Ronnie Brown as he seems to be slowly easing into things and looks pretty good to this point...all I'm saying is back your early round investments up. Guys like Jason Snelling are worth more to the Michael Turner owner than anyone else so why not get him and let him occupy your RB5 slot. Jeff Pasquino gets the credit for this rule and I tend to make it a priority so I am not trying to battle the waiver wire or blind bids in my moment of need.
2. Consider some late round combos to help find one decent guy to keep. For example I like to pair Danny Woodhead with Ridley or Vereen and figure one of them is going to pan out as a great flex option throughout the season. It doesn't cost you much and it shores up your RB3/4 type slots. And in best ball they are worth even more.
3. Take a very late round flyer on Larry Johnson. I say this as I saw him do something that Miami doesn't have on the roster when he played the other night. He took his 2nd hand off and made a nice cut to gain 5 yards, no one had done that all night. He has better moves at 31 than Thomas has at 21. The sent Thomas back in after LJ took a couple touches and I really think it was to show Thomas what he needs to do. If I'm wrong you can simply cut him, we're talking 20th round here. Miami IMO is still a very unsettled position and once Bush ends up injured Miami is going to be in a world of hurt at RB. And if not LJ, find a guy that you think will have huge upside if he gets on the field. Thats why I like guys such as Kendall Hunter in SF, Ben Tate in Houston, Powell in New York, Helu in Washington, Murray in Dallas...and my last late round flyer types and Harrison in Detroit, they need him to perform to help lighten the load and he has flashed some skills in the past. These backs should they get on the field have quite a bit of surrounding talent that would make them look better than perhaps their actual talent since they are RB2/3 positions on their teams for a reason.
So let me land the plane before the Sons of Liberty come crashing in here ready to tar and feather me(Hi Tim). If you already drafted and you feel offended because I went after some of the guys sitting on your roster or perhaps didn't give them all the credit you think they deserve...I really don't care. And what I mean is I'm not interested in the fancy technical stats that Chase Stuart can whip up at a moments notice(I'm just jealous that he knows so much). This was more about the big ole MOP gut. I'm not interested in trying to prove you wrong or myself right, this is simply based on what I have observed, the off season movement, the OL in place for some of these teams, and finally where guys are valued at right now. It is about how certain guys will fit on your roster. If you need clarification and you don't want to ask on the boards, just shoot me a PM. Ask anyone who sends them to me, I'm as nice as could be, and will be happy to converse back and forth with you. I write in a conversational way for a reason. You all are smart, you show up here and do your homework, time to go out and kick ###. Have a fantastic Labor Day Weekend everyone!!!
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