More surprised in 2016 or 2020? (1 Viewer)

[AAABatteries]

Let's assume Trump wins re-election - which of the two victories will be more surprising to you?  Taking everything in to account.  I really have a hard time deciding at the moment.

2016 - Political outsider who wasn't taken seriously, nobody gave him a chance to win the R nomination and then was a decent underdog in the polls plus folks like me (read - I'm dumb) thought there was no way he would win.

2020 - Four years where I think it's generous to say it's been chaotic.  Multiple scandals, many of his inner circle accused or convicted of crimes.  More importantly COVID and many are hurting economically.

Also, you have to factor in that a large number of people voted for him once, so it's not like it's as surprising this time that they will vote for him.  Ultimately, I think COVID ends up being the thing that tips it for me and I'd select 2020 as being the most surprising.

 

[Gr00vus]

2016 definitely more surprising. 2020 will be more depressing.

 

[Max Power]

2016 for sure.  Everyone thought Hilary had it in the bag. 

This year is a toss up. 

 

[sho nuff]

Equal in a way.

2016 just from agreeing yeah, thought he had no chance..underdog, polling...just the sentiment all around.

2020 that a guy who has made as many big things that would have sunk anyone before him...so many times over...and still has the approval he does and the chance to win he does is surprising to me.  Its just absolutely mind "bottling" and I still can't get my grip on the appeal of him.  I get the appeal of party vs. Democrats...but not of Trump.  

 

[Juxtatarot]

2020 without a doubt.  Trump had a much better chance in 2016.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I'd say 2016 by a mile.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

2016 for sure.  Everyone thought Hilary had it in the bag. 

This year is a toss up. 

Trump had a 29% chance in 2016 per 538.   This year he has a 10% chance.   As someone who likes math and statistics, I would find this year 3x more surprising.

 

[Gr00vus]

Trump had a 29% chance in 2016 per 538.   This year he has a 10% chance.   As someone who likes math and statistics, I would find this year 3x more surprising.

I get what you're saying. I still go with 2016 because we hadn't learned the 2016 lesson that 29% probabilities really do hit sometimes. Given I'm a pessimist, now I'm totally expecting the 10% probability to hit (which is irrational) this time. So I won't be surprised if it does even though I understand it's less likely than the 29% chance hitting.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I think this year for sure. The dislike/hate of Hillary was strong. 

I know some people say they hate Biden, but I don't usually believe them. 

When people told me they liked Hillary I didn't usually believe them. 

 

[AAABatteries]

I feel good about my pole because lots of smart folks replying already and we are pretty evenly split.

 

[Don Quixote]

2020 for sure.  When a lot people were still treating Trump like a joke candidacy back in late 2015/early 2016, I remember being one of those here (in a thread long deleted) warning not a treat it a joke and a truly dangerous possibility, as he had a real shot given the unpopularity of both his Republican opponents and Hillary.

Trump winning given the current state of affairs would be like Hoover beating FDR in 1932.

 

[TLEF316]

IMO, its 2016.

Back then, it was hard to believe we had enough people out there who actually thought that Trump was worthy of the highest office of the land. Despite Hillary's MANY flaws, I still felt that at the end of the day, people would swallow hard and elect her. (especially after the "grab em by the #####" video came out)

But now.....we know those people exist. And despite the polls, I think there's still enough of them out there to elect him again. 

At the end of day, this comes down Democratic turnout in like 5 or 6 states. Nothing else matters.   And with everything going on, it wouldn't shock me at all if the Dems fall short again in those 5 or 6 states. I absolutely believe there's still a huge block of silent Trump voters out there and I can absolutely see a scenario where (between voter apathy and maybe some voter suppression) the Dems just dont get the numbers.

And even if appears that they have 48 hours from now, this thing is going to court. And all bets are off at that point. Even if FL somehow (which I dont think will happen) is a slam dunk win for Biden, Trump wont concede.

There's a LOT of people out there who think Trump is a victim in all this and that everyone fighting against HIM are really fighting against THEM and their way of life. These people are going to vote. I'm still not sure the people the Dems are counting on will.

 

[Shula-holic]

I'm a statistics guy and for the polls to be off by this much this time it would be a much more statistically unlikely outcome so I have to say 2020.

 

[Jayrod]

I'm a statistics guy and for the polls to be off by this much this time it would be a much more statistically unlikely outcome so I have to say 2020.

Hopefully the actual science involved has improved this time around.

After 2016, I kept reading/hearing how "it was within the margin of error", but when every single poll is off in the same direction then something is fundamentally wrong with the polling process.  Hopefully, they have learned something from 2016 and applied it to this year.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Two weeks prior to the 2016 election, I would have told you there was no chance Trump wins.

On election night 2016. I thought Hillary would win, but I was really worried about her winning the popular vote and losing the election. 

In 2020, I am more confident than I was 2 weeks prior to the 2016 election. Many people are pointing to 2016 as why they are unsure this year. Biden's lead is way more sound than Clinton's. Trump won in 2016 by less than 100,000 votes spread across three states. I expect Biden to win those states by at least 7.

 

[Shula-holic]

Hopefully the actual science involved has improved this time around.

After 2016, I kept reading/hearing how "it was within the margin of error", but when every single poll is off in the same direction then something is fundamentally wrong with the polling process.  Hopefully, they have learned something from 2016 and applied it to this year.

They claim they have, yet there is also that argument out there that the DeSantis/Gillum race in Florida showed they didn't correct it.  I think statistically it's more likely they are correct but can't totally discount it.  I do feel there may be a little under counting the Trump vote because it's so hard to sample.  I don't know that the resulting variance is large enough for the outcome to change given the polling gaps.

 

[JAA]

In 2016 I voted for neither Clinton or Trump.  I felt they were (are?) both clowns.

The last 4 years have been eye-opening for me.  I had no idea how bad it could get.

I will be very very surprised if Trump wins 2020.

 

[Thunderlips]

2016 is WAAAAAY more surprising.

2020...he's facing Biden. A ham and egger. 47 year service politician.  Ran for President two other times.  A nothing state. He was down and out in Feb; only existing right now as a candidate because he was propped up like Bernie from those Weekend movies by Jim Clyburn.  The guy brushed up against glory; but never tasted it.  He can barely string two words together.  He hides in his basement; afraid to come out. Trump crushed him in both debates.  His nanny....er ...... VP candidate was severely thrashed by Pence; a man who looks like Jor-El; Superman's dad.   He's at best Mister Rogers and at worst that old man whose house you tell your kids not to go near. "Your baseball went in Mr. Biden's yard?....Don't go get it.  I'll buy you a new one." This old man from Delaware..... there's no chance he'll win.  

Trump has rode 4 years of unparalleled success. like no other President. Ever.  It's actually unfair to other Presidents to compare them to Trump.  Trump's more of a Roman Emperor.....a member of the British Monarch; where the sun never sets on his Empire.  He curbed Kim Jong. He ended Al-Queda and brought peace to the Middle East. He made Mexico pay for a wall that HURTS them!....that's like Al Bundy giving the guys girlfriend he's going to beat up his jacket to hold before he beats the guy up.  He made China pay more for everything.  Never before seen riches in this country.  He beat COVID; both personally and societally.  He exposed global warming as the hoax we know it is.  HE vanquished his foe in 16; locking her up. No-one thought he could do that.  He's so on point; so...Alpha.  He's even managed to run a multi-billion dollar international business WHILE being the President of the United States.  No-one has that power.  No one.  Trump has done more for everyone in this country than any single leader has EVER done for their tribe; their town; their territory, city, state or country.

If Biden wins..... this is the American Revolution  x100.  This is like winning the British winning 10 Battles of Britain in a row or Rocky beating Apollo after one of Rocky's arms fell off or Hickory winning the State Title without Jimmy Chitwood or the Red Sox winning 15 games in a row to come back and beat the Yankees . Biden winning would shake the pillars of heaven and threaten to upset everything we know about....well ....... everything.  

 

[Jayrod]

2016 is WAAAAAY more surprising.

2020...he's facing Biden. A ham and egger. 47 year service politician.  Ran for President two other times.  A nothing state. He was down and out in Feb; only existing right now as a candidate because he was propped up like Bernie from those Weekend movies by Jim Clyburn.  The guy brushed up against glory; but never tasted it.  He can barely string two words together.  He hides in his basement; afraid to come out. Trump crushed him in both debates.  His nanny....er ...... VP candidate was severely thrashed by Pence; a man who looks like Jor-El; Superman's dad.   He's at best Mister Rogers and at worst that old man whose house you tell your kids not to go near. "Your baseball went in Mr. Biden's yard?....Don't go get it.  I'll buy you a new one." This old man from Delaware..... there's no chance he'll win.  

Trump has rode 4 years of unparalleled success. like no other President. Ever.  It's actually unfair to other Presidents to compare them to Trump.  Trump's more of a Roman Emperor.....a member of the British Monarch; where the sun never sets on his Empire.  He curbed Kim Jong. He ended Al-Queda and brought peace to the Middle East. He made Mexico pay for a wall that HURTS them!....that's like Al Bundy giving the guys girlfriend he's going to beat up his jacket to hold before he beats the guy up.  He made China pay more for everything.  Never before seen riches in this country.  He beat COVID; both personally and societally.  He exposed global warming as the hoax we know it is.  HE vanquished his foe in 16; locking her up. No-one thought he could do that.  He's so on point; so...Alpha.  He's even managed to run a multi-billion dollar international business WHILE being the President of the United States.  No-one has that power.  No one.  Trump has done more for everyone in this country than any single leader has EVER done for their tribe; their town; their territory, city, state or country.

If Biden wins..... this is the American Revolution  x100.  This is like winning the British winning 10 Battles of Britain in a row or Rocky beating Apollo after one of Rocky's arms fell off or Hickory winning the State Title without Jimmy Chitwood or the Red Sox winning 15 games in a row to come back and beat the Yankees . Biden winning would shake the pillars of heaven and threaten to upset everything we know about....well ....... everything.  

 

[skol asylum]

2020 isn't really about Trump if you think about it. Given EVERYTHING we've witnessed from him over the last four years it truly is a test of the state of the soul of America.

 

[Jayrod]

2020 isn't really about Trump if you think about it. Given EVERYTHING we've witnessed from him over the last four years it truly is a test of the state of the soul of America.

 

[Jayrod]

I think some people will vote their conscious, some will vote their pocketbook, some will vote straight ticket, and some will cast anti-whoever votes.

There will be anxiety and wringing of hands caused by stoked fears from various corporate and social media platforms.

The results may be clear cut and it may end up in court for months.

But at the end of the day, this whole thing ultimately falls on our shoulders.  We are a government of the people, for the people and by the people and whatever happens will be the result of our collective decisions, hundreds of millions of us.

 

[pollardsvision]

Statistically, it's 2020, but I voted 2016.

I have no reason not believe the polls, but we're still talking about an incumbent against an uninspiring opponent. It's all about turnout, and I'm not terribly confident in election day turnout during a pandemic, no matter how much early voting has occurred. 

 

[Don't Toews Me]

2016- In hindsight, Trump had a bigger chance than I gave him credit for. Mostly because it was difficult for me to believe he, as a businessman/former host of the Apprentice, could actually win vs a career politician in HRC. @Alex P Keaton posted above about Trump having a 29% chance in 2016. In my head, I didn't give him a 3 in 10 shot of winning. It was surprising because of my "Can this guy really win" state of disbelief. Error on my part.

Or perhaps I did give him a 3 in 10 shot of winning, but in actuality, he had more of a 4/10 or 50/50 shot. 538 guys devote way more time and effort at this than I do, so I defer to them.

2016 skews my view of 2020 for a multitude of reasons. The "I underestimated Trump in 2016 and he proved me wrong by winning" produces compensation. It makes me think he has a higher than 1 in 10 shot of winning this year because of my previous underestimation. We hate being wrong, and so we compensate to not be wrong for the same reason twice. The other part of me says "Can he really pull it off again?" 

Additionally, my own biases further skew my thoughts on the chances of either candidate in 2020. I often wonder if there's more variance in how we think and process things. My biases cloud this variance. Specifically, I wonder if there's more variance in how we think and process things today than in previous years/decades. I purposefully try to seek out those who think differently/process things differently than I do because of this curiosity. Or perhaps we're more of a representation of who we listen to rather than how we think. I'm not entirely sure. Above my paygrade. 

Circling back from my off topic thoughts, I'd say when viewed as singular, individual events that are separate from one another, 2016 was more surprising than if Trump wins in 2020.

 

[Terminalxylem]

2016 was more surprising, at least for those of us who don’t follow politics. Even if the numbers show an upset is even more unlikely this year, Trump's presidency and 2020 have been so continuously shocking it’ll be hard to register even if he wins again.

 

[shader]

Let's assume Trump wins re-election - which of the two victories will be more surprising to you?  Taking everything in to account.  I really have a hard time deciding at the moment.

2016 - Political outsider who wasn't taken seriously, nobody gave him a chance to win the R nomination and then was a decent underdog in the polls plus folks like me (read - I'm dumb) thought there was no way he would win.

2020 - Four years where I think it's generous to say it's been chaotic.  Multiple scandals, many of his inner circle accused or convicted of crimes.  More importantly COVID and many are hurting economically.

Also, you have to factor in that a large number of people voted for him once, so it's not like it's as surprising this time that they will vote for him.  Ultimately, I think COVID ends up being the thing that tips it for me and I'd select 2020 as being the most surprising.

2016 by a mile. 2020 race is currently a toss-up. 2016 shocked everybody.

 

[Anarchy99]

2016 by a mile. 2020 race is currently a toss-up. 2016 shocked everybody.

I don’t get this. Trump had a 3 in 10 chance to win in 2016. He has a 1 in 10 chance in 2020. How is that a toss up?

 

[shader]

I don’t get this. Trump had a 3 in 10 chance to win in 2016. He has a 1 in 10 chance in 2020. How is that a toss up?

I don’t believe your numbers. Polling, in my opinion, is a very inexact science.  Both campaigns are acting as if this race is neck and neck. Anything can happen. Both sets of supporters seem unbelievably confident.  
 

Not sure what else can be said.  Sit back and watch the events.  Some stat nerd on a website who makes predictions that are as meaningful as a bad weatherman won’t have any impact on who wins.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

2016 by a mile. 2020 race is currently a toss-up. 2016 shocked everybody.

I was shocked that Trump won the nomination in 2016.  It didn’t shock me at all that he beat Clinton, who was widely hated within her own party.  Had lengthy debates with my neighbors who thought everybody loved Clinton because “she had the strongest resume of any candidate ever.”  Which was silly for 2 reasons:  a) use of the word “ever” - how about George Washington?, b) it’s asinine to think voters make rational choices based on a side-by-side comparison of candidates’ resumes.

 

[Anarchy99]

The one element I have not seen discussed much is what happens if the polls are off . . . but in Biden's favor? In 2016, the pollsters missed a layer of Trump supporters in key states and he barely carried 3 states by 77,000 votes that swung the election. However, what happens if this go round the poll numbers are under estimating the Dems that sat out last time, the surge of 20 million voters that will be voting this time, the COVID effect, the negative attitudes by many toward the president? What if the pollsters over corrected their formulas and algorithms and overcompensated to lean too much to the GOP?

Lots of people are suggesting the polls could be off . . . even WAY off . . . but somehow that involves a 5-10 point swing toward Trump. But a 2-3 point miscalculation toward Biden would not only get him the states he is polling ahead in (MI, WI, MN, PA), but also the toss up states (NC, GA, FL, AZ, NV) AND the other states (OH, IA, TX). Add all those up, and Biden would get to 400-415 electoral votes.

I realize that only actual votes count and not the poll numbers, but IMO there is a greater chance that the polls are off 2-3 points in Biden's favor than 5-10 points in Trump's favor. The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, but if that is the case than Biden is the one that would win.

 

[The Commish]

2016....the last four years has opened my eyes to the true position of the electorate in this country and the power of the EC.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Like everyone else, I was pretty darn surprised by the 2016 result.  But that race was pretty close the whole way -- Clinton was a poor candidate who ran a bad campaign and was never able to pull away, and that was enough of an opening for Trump to get very lucky on election night.  By way of contrast, Biden is way ahead.  The polls can be overstating Biden's support by a decent amount and it will still be a blowout.  

 

[dozer]

I find it much more surprising anyone would vote for Trump after witnessing Four years of his incompetence, corruption, and weak personal character.

 

[BigJim®]

2020 for me. I anguished for a few minutes filling out my own ballot in 2016.