Mort: Parker Could Be The Man All Year (1 Viewer)

[huckyoda]

It only applies to QBs.  Wow you are slow.

Oh the irony.

Is anyone else reading this? This is like a twilight zone episode. Whats the irony? What was not clear or slow about what I said. This response is the equivlent of "I know you are but what am I".

 

[jurb26]

It only applies to QBs. Wow you are slow.

Oh the irony.

Is anyone else reading this? This is like a twilight zone episode. Whats the irony? What was not clear or slow about what I said. This response is the equivlent of "I know you are but what am I".

Here is the irony:

What is this rookie "wall" that you invented? I havent seen it. Care to share some #s to justify?

Quoted from you on page one.

 

[huckyoda]

It only applies to QBs.  Wow you are slow.

Oh the irony.

Is anyone else reading this? This is like a twilight zone episode. Whats the irony? What was not clear or slow about what I said. This response is the equivlent of "I know you are but what am I".

Here is the irony:

What is this rookie "wall" that you invented? I havent seen it. Care to share some #s to justify?

Qouted from you on page one.

Thats right, because this was a discussion about RUNNING BACKS, with whom there is no rookie wall.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm dying to see the Pittsburgh offense against a good rush defense.

Did you just wake up from a coma and miss last season? The Steelers have not changed their offensive game plan and they looked pretty good running the ball last yr.

Yes, but surely you can see the difference between the Bus and FWP.It isn't the line or even the team that I'm wondering about, it's Parker. He might be great, might be the next big thing, but until I he takes on a team that can tackle him, how do we know?

 

[Iron_Far]

Anyone else seeing as many Quentin Griffin likenesses here as I am? Call me cynical, but I don't think this thing will end well against NE in a few weeks

 

[Cool in the pocket]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle. Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's. What remains to be seen is:1. Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?2. Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?3. Can he hold up over the whole season?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm dying to see the Pittsburgh offense against a good rush defense.

Did you just wake up from a coma and miss last season? The Steelers have not changed their offensive game plan and they looked pretty good running the ball last yr.

Yes, but surely you can see the difference between the Bus and FWP.It isn't the line or even the team that I'm wondering about, it's Parker. He might be great, might be the next big thing, but until I he takes on a team that can tackle him, how do we know?

What about Buffalo, last year as was already brought up? He rushed for 109 yards against one of the toughest defenses in the league last year in a game they needed to win in order to make the playoffs.

 

[jurb26]

Anyone else seeing as many Quentin Griffin likenesses here as I am?

Call me cynical, but I don't think this thing will end well against NE in a few weeks

I've said the same thing in one of the other Parker threads, maybe this one don't even know anymore. I sure hope that isn't the case.

 

[Englishteacher]

Just Mort speculating but this is from his chat going on right now:

Jeff (New York, NY): Do you think the Steelers would bench Staley in favor of Parker?

Chris Mortensen: (11:08 AM ET ) Yeah, I think Parker will end up being the guy this year. I really do. Fresh legs, more speed, a little stronger than maybe I thought.

J

I think Joe's got a crush. congrats Joe, you were right on about this

 

[Archie Bunker]

Just Mort speculating but this is from his chat going on right now:

Jeff (New York, NY): Do you think the Steelers would bench Staley in favor of Parker?

Chris Mortensen: (11:08 AM ET ) Yeah, I think Parker will end up being the guy this year. I really do. Fresh legs, more speed, a little stronger than maybe I thought.

Here's a brief blurb about Dayne. Nothing much and doesn't tell us anything we don't already know, but I thought I'd add it for those interested in the Denver RB situation:

Eric in Las Vegas: Hey Chris, I want to see some Ron Dayne! What week do you expect Shanahan to make him a part of the offense?

Chris Mortensen: (11:24 AM ET ) Could happen this week.

@ this part, when Staley comes back healthy, he will be the one with fresh legs.

you do realize Willie barely saw the field in college. His legs will still be fresher than Staley's even if he carries it 30 times a game.

The flip side of that would be it remains to be seen if FWP can hold up to the pounding over the course of an entire season. He's never done it.

And Staley's done it, what, twice in 8 years?

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I'm dying to see the Pittsburgh offense against a good rush defense.

Did you just wake up from a coma and miss last season? The Steelers have not changed their offensive game plan and they looked pretty good running the ball last yr.

Yes, but surely you can see the difference between the Bus and FWP.It isn't the line or even the team that I'm wondering about, it's Parker. He might be great, might be the next big thing, but until I he takes on a team that can tackle him, how do we know?

What about Buffalo, last year as was already brought up? He rushed for 109 yards against one of the toughest defenses in the league last year in a game they needed to win in order to make the playoffs.

So, you are willing to call FWP a stud based on one performance (or 2 if you like)? What if LT's first two games were 19-66 or something less than LT like? Would he be deemed a bust?

 

[toxicbees]

Once FWP tears it up this weekend, Cowher will pronounce him the starter and feature back for the rest of the year. Duce's lateral tear of the miniscus is the same injury that Chris Webber had. If Duce tries to push it by coming back early, he'll just hurt himself again.As for Dayne, if Anderson can't go this weekend, look for 50 yards and 2TDs from Dayne. Bell will probably get more carries and have more yards, but Dayne will get all the redzone work.

 

[jurb26]

right, he lost 1 game as a rookie against the defending World Champs. You need a better example. Seriously find someone else to pick on, fast Willie will make you look foolish.

Try sticking to the topic, did his play regress/hit a wall towards the end of the year, yes or no? Or have you never heard of this phrase either?

He is absolutely right. Ben himself admitted that the hit a wall towards the end of the year. This is not a new phenomenon....it is hard for rookies not to slow down toward the end of the season.

A few points worth mentioning again... Ben=QB, Willie=RB and most importantly, Willie's NOT a rookie. Discuss.

I never claimed Parker was a rookie only brought up the so called "wall" as to your reference of him having NEVER carried the full load for a whole season in either the pros or in college. Surly this posses a risk when looking at Parker if he is to be the main guy all season long. Fact is, it is not easy to transition yourself to the beating and demands of the NFL, whatever position you are. I would think that transition is only more difficult for someone who did not even have to sustain it in college. Maybe the best link we have to that is Holmes. Played little in college behind RW sat for a while in Balt. Thrust onto the seen for the most part in Balt one year and in KC. Has only managed to carry the load for 1 complete season during his career w/o breaking down thus far.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle. Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's. What remains to be seen is:

1. Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?

2. Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?

3. Can he hold up over the whole season?

1)He'll get opps, but there is no way he is a true feature RB when either Staley or Bettis are back2)Yes, he doesn't have anything locked up, one bad game and watch all the bandwagon jumpers hop off as quick as they got on

3)Unknown

At this point Willie Parker is the most over-rated value play in FF. People are giving up very solid WR's and QB's for a guy who had one good week and has 2 entrenched guys to share the backfield with in a week or 2 down the line.

 

[CrossEyed]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle. Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's. What remains to be seen is:

1. Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?

2. Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?

3. Can he hold up over the whole season?

1)He'll get opps, but there is no way he is a true feature RB when either Staley or Bettis are back2)Yes, he doesn't have anything locked up, one bad game and watch all the bandwagon jumpers hop off as quick as they got on

3)Unknown

At this point Willie Parker is the most over-rated value play in FF. People are giving up very solid WR's and QB's for a guy who had one good week and has 2 entrenched guys to share the backfield with in a week or 2 down the line.

Entrenched? Jerome came back to be the short-yardage guy, nothing more. He has no desire to be an every-down back and has stated so.

Staley has been here for one year. He played well, but couldn't stay healthy and has now been hurt twice. Nobody is entrenched and Parker has played better than anyone.

 

[richn]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle.  Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's.  What remains to be seen is:

1.  Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?

2.  Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?

3.  Can he hold up over the whole season?

1)He'll get opps, but there is no way he is a true feature RB when either Staley or Bettis are back2)Yes, he doesn't have anything locked up, one bad game and watch all the bandwagon jumpers hop off as quick as they got on

3)Unknown

At this point Willie Parker is the most over-rated value play in FF. People are giving up very solid WR's and QB's for a guy who had one good week and has 2 entrenched guys to share the backfield with in a week or 2 down the line.

You might be correct on your assumptions, HOWEVER, he looked more powerful than Q did early last year, and as there is a chance you are correct, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE HE MIGHT BE THE REAL DEAL!!!!!!

 

[Isotopes]

I suspect he will have more success this week against the Texans....the true test will be when the Patriots come to town the following week.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle. Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's. What remains to be seen is:

1. Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?

2. Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?

3. Can he hold up over the whole season?

1)He'll get opps, but there is no way he is a true feature RB when either Staley or Bettis are back2)Yes, he doesn't have anything locked up, one bad game and watch all the bandwagon jumpers hop off as quick as they got on

3)Unknown

At this point Willie Parker is the most over-rated value play in FF. People are giving up very solid WR's and QB's for a guy who had one good week and has 2 entrenched guys to share the backfield with in a week or 2 down the line.

You might be correct on your assumptions, HOWEVER, he looked more powerful than Q did early last year, and as there is a chance you are correct, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE HE MIGHT BE THE REAL DEAL!!!!!!

yes, there is that chance, i'm just saying there is so much uncertainty at this point with him that his percieved value is so overblown it is shocking.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

This is the same discussion we are having in another FWP thread from a different angle. Most will agree that FWP has made the most of his limited opp's. What remains to be seen is:

1. Will he continue to get the opps once Staley/Bettis are back?

2. Will he see reduced opp's if he begins to struggle or has a tough day against a top tier D?

3. Can he hold up over the whole season?

1)He'll get opps, but there is no way he is a true feature RB when either Staley or Bettis are back2)Yes, he doesn't have anything locked up, one bad game and watch all the bandwagon jumpers hop off as quick as they got on

3)Unknown

At this point Willie Parker is the most over-rated value play in FF. People are giving up very solid WR's and QB's for a guy who had one good week and has 2 entrenched guys to share the backfield with in a week or 2 down the line.

Entrenched? Jerome came back to be the short-yardage guy, nothing more. He has no desire to be an every-down back and has stated so.

Staley has been here for one year. He played well, but couldn't stay healthy and has now been hurt twice. Nobody is entrenched and Parker has played better than anyone.

Jerome is entrenched as the short yardage guy when he comes back, so that takes a bunch of value away from Parker.Staley isn't so much entrenched as anything, but I find it hard to believe he won't have a role when he returns.

All i'm saying is that barring both Bettis and Staley being hurt all year I just can't see Parker being a solid starter in FF. He is a stop gap play for the first few weeks and decent depth for later in case Bettis/Staley continue to get banged up.

Anyone who is counting on Willie Parker being a starter for them the whole year is likely to be very disappointed.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

So far, the only speculation on Dayne is that he might make the active 46 man roster on game day.

 

[Urinal Mint]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

 

[Babu Bhatt]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

 

[Isotopes]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

I agree that we need to see more of Parker before he is a legit stud in my mind...however, I am not sure that performance in college is what you should be concerned about.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future.  I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

You made my argument for me. I think I'll run with the Pitt braintrust over UNC's

 

[AnonymousBob]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future.  I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

I really HATE these kinds of replies. Often the old steady vets get overlooked in favor of the trendy youth but the vets can have as much upside (last year-Tiki, C-Mart, Rod Smith, etc)

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm dying to see the Pittsburgh offense against a good rush defense.

Did you just wake up from a coma and miss last season? The Steelers have not changed their offensive game plan and they looked pretty good running the ball last yr.

Yes, but surely you can see the difference between the Bus and FWP.It isn't the line or even the team that I'm wondering about, it's Parker. He might be great, might be the next big thing, but until I he takes on a team that can tackle him, how do we know?

What about Buffalo, last year as was already brought up? He rushed for 109 yards against one of the toughest defenses in the league last year in a game they needed to win in order to make the playoffs.

So, you are willing to call FWP a stud based on one performance (or 2 if you like)? What if LT's first two games were 19-66 or something less than LT like? Would he be deemed a bust?

No, I'm not calling him a stud yet. However the prior post said he'd like to see what he does against a "team that can tackle". Well we have seen that.Parker has looked good so far and he is in a great situation for a RB, great o-line, great D, if he was to keep the job I don't see a reason why he couldn't maintain his success. I am sure he will have rough outings as every back does, but the kid can play.

 

[Iron_Far]

UNC might have made it to a bowl game if they hadn't sat Parker all those years. This is what I have to say to those former UNC coaches that sat Parker:

 

[Doggler]

Many likely scenarios:5% - FWP plays goes lights-out again vs. Houston and plays solid vs. New England. Cowher annoints him the 'starter' (with the Bus still taking SOME goal-line carries), he finishes the year with 1600 combined yards and 10-15 TDs. This is true RB1 land. Locked as PITs starter for a few years to come at the very least.25% - FWP plays well for the next few weeks, good enough to hold of Staley and receive almost all of the carries between the 20's along with a few others. Bettis still vultures his share and Staley still gets some love. 1200 combined yards and 7-10 TDs. You're talking about an average RB2 at this level of production. Likely the PIT starting RB in 2006, so solid dynasty value.40% - FWP plays OK, but when Staley comes back they split time, say 2/1. Along with Bettis, that gives FWP maybe 150 carries, 800 combined yards, 4-6 TDs. Suitable RB3. Possible dynasty value, but a strong possibility that PIT looks elsewhere at RB in 2006.20% - FWP plays fine next week, but struggles vs. NE. Staley comes back and we see a true RBBC. 100 carries, 500 combined yards, 2-5 TDs. Still worth a roster spot in redraft, DEFINATELY not the long-term answer at RB in Pittsburgh, so dynasty value is null.10% - FWP is exposed as a fraud during the NE, or maybe even Houston game. Duce comes back healthy and FWP is limited to 3-5 carries a game. We all have a beer and laugh about him some day. No dynasty value, likely not even worth a redraft spot.All of us, experts down to guppies, can't say with any certainty where in this range he'll land. Above is just my gut feel.

 

[Me & My Uncle]

Bettis: mostly done...there for emotional lift, loyalty & leaderhipStaley: can be an every down back when healthy, and will get lots of touches, too. If healthy, I see him getting just under half the workFWP: probably closer to being the "man" than Staley, but they won't want to give him 30 carries a week, so RBBC is probable. He is clearly the one to have right now, but his value is hard to predict.

 

[aardball44]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

I really HATE these kinds of replies. Often the old steady vets get overlooked in favor of the trendy youth but the vets can have as much upside (last year-Tiki, C-Mart, Rod Smith, etc)

Point taken, but Babu's post was classic smack. Five short words, five simple syllables, but with as much punch as "What did the five fingers say to the face?"

 

[CrossEyed]

Sorry, but some of you guys just aren't paying attention. Parker was the talk of camp LAST year. When he got his chance he produced. Then he was, once again, the best back in camp this year. Every opportunity he has been given he has not only been up to the challenge, he has excelled.Forget about UNC, this guy has done everything right since he has come to the NFL. He's fast, strong, quick, elusive, bounces off tacklers, can catch and can block. The coaches have been praising his woerk ethic for two years now, and he's humble. And he's playing for a team that thinks run, run, run.You go ahead and wait for him to prove himself. The rest of us are going to win a few games with him as our starting RB.

 

[Iron_Far]

My question then, is: WTF were those ingenius UNC coaches thinking??? And what kind of stud started over a talent of Parker's caliber?

 

[CrossEyed]

My question then, is: WTF were those ingenius UNC coaches thinking??? And what kind of stud started over a talent of Parker's caliber?

What were the coaches in Baltimore thinking when they had Holmes and let him get away? Who knows. Sometimes guys don't work in certain systems. Sometimes they're more motivated in a new environment. The point is that he's no longer at UNC, so it really doesn't matter what he did or didn't do there. Especially since he was never really given the chance.

 

[huckyoda]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future.  I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

I really HATE these kinds of replies. Often the old steady vets get overlooked in favor of the trendy youth but the vets can have as much upside (last year-Tiki, C-Mart, Rod Smith, etc)

You missed his point. I agree that youth is often overpriced and older players are often the bragains, but Parker is not an overhyped young stud. Parker is a great player who is being (or HAD been) overlooked because some people cant get past a college coach's decision on Parker's ability a few years ago.

 

[jurb26]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

I really HATE these kinds of replies. Often the old steady vets get overlooked in favor of the trendy youth but the vets can have as much upside (last year-Tiki, C-Mart, Rod Smith, etc)

You missed his point. I agree that youth is often overpriced and older players are often the bragains, but Parker is not an overhyped young stud. Parker is a great player who is being (or HAD been) overlooked because some people cant get past a college coach's decision on Parker's ability a few years ago.

That's not why people are not sold on Parker. It's because nobody can say with any certianty what his roll becomes when Staley and Bettis are back healthy and he has never been asked to carry the full load for any extended pd of time before. These are mighty large uncertianties for a guy that seems to be rocketing in percieved value after one start (much like Q.Griffin of last year). One thing that is for sure is that Parker will be involved in the Pitt attack no matter what, so long as healthy. What isn't for sure is how long he can maintain that and how much of a roll that is with other very good options available to the Steelers. Options that were ideally choosen ahead of Parker in the 1st place.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future.  I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

This is why you lose.

I really HATE these kinds of replies. Often the old steady vets get overlooked in favor of the trendy youth but the vets can have as much upside (last year-Tiki, C-Mart, Rod Smith, etc)

You missed his point. I agree that youth is often overpriced and older players are often the bragains, but Parker is not an overhyped young stud. Parker is a great player who is being (or HAD been) overlooked because some people cant get past a college coach's decision on Parker's ability a few years ago.

Good post. Even scouts can't scout what they haven't seen. Parker got no shot at UNC. He's a player that slipped through the cracks. It happens every so often.

I'm not going to debate Parker's talent (because I'll go on what I've seen myself i those games), but he's also in one hell of a situation in Pittsburgh and that offense. Priest Holmes wasn't Priest Holmes until he was put in the ideal situation.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Willie Parker IS undervalued right now. One thing that can not be taught is speed. He was able to round the corner when no back I have ever seen could have made it. On the screen pass he came so close to taking it to the house and made the D backs look like they had cement shoes on. You can say all you want about Tenn having a terrible defense, go ahead. The speed is what set him apart and that is what will carry him through even solid defenses. I was floored. Grab him now or miss out. Simple.

 

[IGKYA!!!]

I think it speaks volumes that FWP was taken out of the game early. If he wasn't a major piece of the puzzle, in one way or another, Cowher wouldn't have done that.

 

[jurb26]

I think it speaks volumes that FWP was taken out of the game early. If he wasn't a major piece of the puzzle, in one way or another, Cowher wouldn't have done that.

This is the 2nd time someone has stated this. Come on now, how many teams leave the lead back in the game when it's late in the 3rd/4th quarter with a 20+ point lead? Especially knowing that you already have 2 RBs ahead of that guy out with injuries. This is a classic case of people seeing what they want to see. The fact is, if Pitt leaves Parker in and he gets hurt they are looking at the practice squad and WW for another back and that is not good in any way. Pitt did not have a choose in takeing Parker out of the game... they HAD to.

 

[imeimex]

This situation reminds me exactly of the Dom Davis situation a couple years ago. All year long no one will believe that Parker will continue to start and put up numbers, but all year he will.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Many likely scenarios:

5% - FWP plays goes lights-out again vs. Houston and plays solid vs. New England. Cowher annoints him the 'starter' (with the Bus still taking SOME goal-line carries), he finishes the year with 1600 combined yards and 10-15 TDs. This is true RB1 land. Locked as PITs starter for a few years to come at the very least.

25% - FWP plays well for the next few weeks, good enough to hold of Staley and receive almost all of the carries between the 20's along with a few others. Bettis still vultures his share and Staley still gets some love. 1200 combined yards and 7-10 TDs. You're talking about an average RB2 at this level of production. Likely the PIT starting RB in 2006, so solid dynasty value.

40% - FWP plays OK, but when Staley comes back they split time, say 2/1. Along with Bettis, that gives FWP maybe 150 carries, 800 combined yards, 4-6 TDs. Suitable RB3. Possible dynasty value, but a strong possibility that PIT looks elsewhere at RB in 2006.

20% - FWP plays fine next week, but struggles vs. NE. Staley comes back and we see a true RBBC. 100 carries, 500 combined yards, 2-5 TDs. Still worth a roster spot in redraft, DEFINATELY not the long-term answer at RB in Pittsburgh, so dynasty value is null.

10% - FWP is exposed as a fraud during the NE, or maybe even Houston game. Duce comes back healthy and FWP is limited to 3-5 carries a game. We all have a beer and laugh about him some day. No dynasty value, likely not even worth a redraft spot.

All of us, experts down to guppies, can't say with any certainty where in this range he'll land. Above is just my gut feel.

A couple problems I see here. If Parker is entrenched in a "full RBBC" with Staley, how does that leave him with 100 carries, especially considering he already has 20 and we're only in week 1? 60% of the carries in Pitt (still 300+) is more than 90% of the carries in most of the offenses around the league.Second, why would him having a bad game against NE expose him as a fraud? Since when can good RB's not have a bad day against a good defense? DD goes for less than 20 yards all the time and he's still a borderline 1/2 fantasy RB. Meanwhile, even guys with the stature of LT went for games of 31 and 51 yards in games during their rookie season, the 31 yard day coming against KANSAS CITY.

Even the best RBs around the league have several bad days throughout the course of the year, especially against good defenses. Why would Parker having one automatically classify him as a "fraud"?

I have an inkling that Parker will put up merely mediocre or even below average numbers against Houston this week, yet even if he did my confidence in him would not be shaken. You can't expect ANY rb to go for 150/1 week in and week out, that would be 2400/16 on the season, and last time I checked no one has ever run for 2400 yards...

 

[Irish]

I just have a hard time believing that a guy backing up at perennial football powerhouse UNC is going to be The Man for the Steelers now, or in the future. I need more proof than what I've seen so far.

I bet you don't believe that a qb has great as Tom Brady had to split time with that stiff Drew Henson at powerhouse Michigan or that Terrell Davis wasn't the featured back at Georgia either.

 

[Irish]

Sorry, but some of you guys just aren't paying attention. Parker was the talk of camp LAST year. When he got his chance he produced. Then he was, once again, the best back in camp this year. Every opportunity he has been given he has not only been up to the challenge, he has excelled.

Forget about UNC, this guy has done everything right since he has come to the NFL. He's fast, strong, quick, elusive, bounces off tacklers, can catch and can block. The coaches have been praising his woerk ethic for two years now, and he's humble. And he's playing for a team that thinks run, run, run.

You go ahead and wait for him to prove himself. The rest of us are going to win a few games with him as our starting RB.

Some people require rbs to have some type of pedigree or something. Talent and opportunities is all I need to see.

 

[Mr. Anonymous]

Many likely scenarios:

5% - FWP plays goes lights-out again vs. Houston and plays solid vs. New England. Cowher annoints him the 'starter' (with the Bus still taking SOME goal-line carries), he finishes the year with 1600 combined yards and 10-15 TDs. This is true RB1 land. Locked as PITs starter for a few years to come at the very least.

25% - FWP plays well for the next few weeks, good enough to hold of Staley and receive almost all of the carries between the 20's along with a few others. Bettis still vultures his share and Staley still gets some love. 1200 combined yards and 7-10 TDs. You're talking about an average RB2 at this level of production. Likely the PIT starting RB in 2006, so solid dynasty value.

40% - FWP plays OK, but when Staley comes back they split time, say 2/1. Along with Bettis, that gives FWP maybe 150 carries, 800 combined yards, 4-6 TDs. Suitable RB3. Possible dynasty value, but a strong possibility that PIT looks elsewhere at RB in 2006.

20% - FWP plays fine next week, but struggles vs. NE. Staley comes back and we see a true RBBC. 100 carries, 500 combined yards, 2-5 TDs. Still worth a roster spot in redraft, DEFINATELY not the long-term answer at RB in Pittsburgh, so dynasty value is null.

10% - FWP is exposed as a fraud during the NE, or maybe even Houston game. Duce comes back healthy and FWP is limited to 3-5 carries a game. We all have a beer and laugh about him some day. No dynasty value, likely not even worth a redraft spot.

All of us, experts down to guppies, can't say with any certainty where in this range he'll land. Above is just my gut feel.

I buy this. And I just paid pretty big bucks in a waiver wire auction for Parker and had to cut Bell, my insurance for my #3RB Anderson, to get him.I think the numbers are more or less right - 70% chance he's as good as RB#3 (better than the "expected value" of Bell). And interpolating, probably 50% chance he has some dynasty value, with 30% chance he has real dynasty value.

Now, if somebody less lazy than me would multiply through the FF points associated with each of these tiers by the percentage chance, we'd see his expected value.

My swag at the EV (using the above estimates) is 850 yds; 6 TDs; 160 carries. That's about 140 FF points in my league. Plus the 50% "some value" in dynasty. Good guy to grab - you can always start him if he's a stud or cut him if he's not.

 

[pizzatyme]

I pegged his numbers in another thread last week and now I will try to do it again for this week.I see 135 and 2 TD rushing and 3/45 yards Rec. this week.Back to the regularly scheduled programming...

 

[Joe Kidd]

Did anyone see Willie Parker and Cowher on "sound bites" (I think that was the name of it) on the NFL Network? I will paraphrase it: After a long run in the 3rd quarter of the Titans game, FWP goes over to the sideline where Cowher comes out to shake his hand. Cowher says your done. FWP asks I'm done? Cowher says yeah, hell of a ******* game as he shakes his hand and then tells him something along the lines of, be ready for next week. (The last part of it was barely audible)

 

[AnonymousBob]

Ok, the kid looks great. What of his value in dynasty leagues? Another poster said Pittsburgh would go sign another rb next year. I'm not a homer but I'd think the Bus retires, Duce takes his role and FWP becomes the feature back, assuming he holds up to the load this year and maintains his stellar level of production. Thoughts?

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Ok, the kid looks great. What of his value in dynasty leagues? Another poster said Pittsburgh would go sign another rb next year. I'm not a homer but I'd think the Bus retires, Duce takes his role and FWP becomes the feature back, assuming he holds up to the load this year and maintains his stellar level of production. Thoughts?

They may sign another back, but it may not be to jump aheadof Duce or Parker on the dpeth chart but becuase the Steelers run an insane amount and need bodies to carry that load.

 

[Godsbrother]

Eric in Las Vegas: Hey Chris, I want to see some Ron Dayne! What week do you expect Shanahan to make him a part of the offense?

Chris Mortensen: (11:24 AM ET ) Could happen this week.

Well gee, thanks for the insight, Mort. He should be a friggin' weather man.

 

[Otis]

I'm dying to see the Pittsburgh offense against a good rush defense.

Did you just wake up from a coma and miss last season? The Steelers have not changed their offensive game plan and they looked pretty good running the ball last yr.

Yes, but surely you can see the difference between the Bus and FWP.It isn't the line or even the team that I'm wondering about, it's Parker. He might be great, might be the next big thing, but until I he takes on a team that can tackle him, how do we know?

A very stout BUF defense could not tackle him at the end of last season when their playoff hopes were on the line.