There was a study a couple of years back that evaluated spending habits. It ranked positions by how high the correlation between spending at that position and wins was. It found that the position that correlated highest, that gave you the most wins per dollar spent, was... placekicker.Ladies and gentlemen, meet David Akers, first overall selection of the FBGs fantasy draft.
Seriously, though... football is a game of matchups. The first guy I would take would HAVE to be a guy capable of causing MASSIVE matchup disadvantages. This means I would either take a defensive lineman who DEMANDS a double-team, a cornerback who can be left entirely on his own against the other team's best receiver, a Wide Receiver who can consistantly beat double-teams, or a Tight End who presents coverage problems for both CBs and Safeties. Linemen, Quarterbacks, Runningbacks, Linebackers, and Safeties are very very important to a team's success... but none of these guys can create a cascade effect that forces the other unit to change their entire philosophy and play the rest of the team short-handed because of all the attention they're paying to my #1 overall pick. There are a very few exceptions, such as Brian Dawkins and Julian Peterson (before he was injured), who are so versatile that they create matchup problems, but for the sake of this excercise, I'm sticking to DLs, CBs, WRs, and TEs.My second concern is going to be longevity. How much can I get out of my stud player, how much does he have left in him? If I'm basing my franchise off of a player, I want a guy who has at least 3 straight years of demonstrated excellence, but who is still under 30 and plays at a position known for longevity.Anyway, that said, on to the lists.Defensive Line- Peppers is very, very good, but not consistantly dominant for me to use my first pick on. Dwight Freeney is VERY tempting, since he's young and has established a history of dominance, but he's too one-dimensional. Casey Hampton, the NT for the Steelers, is another guy who is absolutely dominant, but he's just as one-dimensional as Freeney. Michael Strahan and Jason Taylor have absolutely everything I'm looking for, and would easily be my first overall pick... if they were just a couple years younger. This leaves me with really only one choice on the D-line. Richard Seymour.CB- Ty Law would be the guy if this was 5 years ago, but it's not, so he's not. With Law too old, it's gotta be Champ Bailey. 6 straight pro-bowls and 2 straight all-pros show a demonstrated history of excellence. He's under 30 in a position known for longevity. I already know he'll be able to handle going 1-on-1, since he does it all the time anyway (unlike another guy I like, Terrence Newman, who would be a bit of an unknown in strictly man-coverage on the other team's #1). A lot of other guys have had great seasons (Al Harris, Lito Sheppard, and Chris McCallister), but they haven't been consistantly great enough to warrent the pick.WR- For Steve Smith, I might consider waiving the 3-year excellence standard, because he was injured, but was pretty good in year 1 and dominant in year 3. That said, I have a lot of concerns about Steve Smith, since Muhsin Muhammed put up just as ridiculous of numbers in that system. This makes me question whether Smith is the REASON, or BENEFICIARY. Randy Moss is an easy choice here, but his recent injury history scares me off too much. Harrison is too old, Santana Moss is still too unproven, Owens is too old and also too unpredictable. In fact, there's not a lot of WRs that I like here. Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Holt would all warrent a long look... but in the end, Chad Johnson is the only WR I'd consider here. 4 straight dominant years, 3 straight pro-bowls, success with different QBs and different offensive systems, and he's under 30.TE- The list begins and ends at Antonio Gates. Heap/Shockey have been too inconsistant, Gonzalez is too old, no one else has been dominant. I'm waiving the 3-years of excellence rule, because Gates was SO dominant during his 2 straight seasons.So the final list is, in order of preference:Champ BaileyRichard SeymourAntonio GatesChad Johnson