Moulds no longer deep threat
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
The only player to have generated significant interest around the league despite not being a free agent is Eric Moulds. Moulds has a $10.85 million cap number for the 2006 season, and the Bills have given him permission to seek a trade. As many as seven teams reportedly are interested in him.
One of the reasons Moulds wants to be traded is his unhappiness with the way he was used during the 2005 season. Moulds did catch 81 passes last year, ranking him 15th in the league in that category. However, he gained only 816 yards, 33rd in the league, and the 10.1 yards per reception ranked him 74th in the AFC. These numbers are down from his 2004 totals of 88 catches, 1,043 yards and 11.9 yards per reception.
The reduction in production would seem to suggest that Moulds has a legitimate complaint. I decided to conduct a metric analysis to see how his 2005 numbers compared with those of previous seasons.
First, here are his receiving metrics from the 2005 season:
Eric Moulds- 2005
Depth Attempts Comp Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 91 68 545 2 1 9 6.1
Medium 20 10 167 0 1 4 8.6
Deep 17 3 104 2 1 20 7.3
Total 128 81 816 4 3 33 6.6
Now take a look at Moulds' 2004 metrics:
Eric Moulds- 2004
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 100 68 644 1 1 5 6.5
Medium 24 14 208 2 2 -5 8.5
Deep 24 6 191 2 3 28 9.1
Total 148 88 1043 5 6 28 7.2
These numbers are largely identical, particularly if we keep in mind that Moulds played in only 15 games in 2005 because of his suspension for violating team policy.
It might look as though the Bills were using Moulds more as a short pass receiver in 2005, but his role was almost identical in 2004. Last season, Moulds averaged 6.1 short pass attempts per game, compared with 6.3 in 2004. Moulds actually helped himself in this category by improving his short pass completion percentage by nearly 7percent from 2004 to 2005.
Moulds wants people to believe his vertical pass attempts were reduced last year, and he is technically correct. It was reduced from 48 medium/deep pass attempts in 2004 to 37 in 2005, but you have to factor in the difference in games. Once you factor that in, it only amounts to a .5 difference in attempts per game.
The reason Moulds doesn't catch many deep passes is he simply doesn't get open deep. One of the things I measure on every pass play is the degree to which the receiver was open. I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage.
Calculating the number of steps is fairly basic. I simply look for the separation between the receiver and defender when the pass is thrown. Determining the quality of the coverage is more subjective. When a defender has good coverage, it will take a perfect pass by the quarterback to beat him. When a defender has tight coverage, even a perfect pass likely will not beat him.
During the 2004 season, Moulds ranked 85th out of 87 qualifying receivers in tight-good coverage percentage on deep passes. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on 62.5 percent of his deep pass attempts that season, meaning it was highly unlikely the pass was going to be completed because he simply wasn't open.
His deep pass coverage metrics weren't much better in 2005. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on nine of his 17 deep pass attempts, which equates to 53 percent of his deep passes.
Moulds still can be a significant player for the right team, provided he can accept the role his current skill set dictates he should fill. The Bills certainly still could use him as a possession receiver. The Texans are rumored to be very interested in Moulds, and they certainly could use a strong No. 2 receiver to complement Andre Johnson. The Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks also certainly could use a reliable possession receiver.
The ball is in Moulds' court. If he markets himself as a possession receiver, he will have plenty of options. If he insists on being paid as a vertical threat, most teams are going to lose interest.