My Dynasty Rankings are ready to slam! (1 Viewer)

[Chris Smith]

Hi guys. For the most part, my dynasty rankings are ready to go. Still finalizing my early projections which could tweak the value of some of the players but for the most part, I feel confident with them.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...4&sortby=12

I would love to hear

1. The picks you love

2. The picks you loath

3. The picks you don't understand

Basically...

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of my first-pass Dynasty rankings.

Should I grab one of these?



Or do I get to clap myself on the back?



Thanks everyone.

 

[Chris Smith]

BTW: Jeff and Sigmund are the cat's meow when it comes to Dynasty information. I simply enjoy participating in dynasty leagues so I put my rankings out there for everybody to see.

 

[ThePittbully]

Peterson at #6 in dynasty RB's? Im a future Peterson owner, and I am highly optimistic but I wouldn't have him nearly that high. Any reason why?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Peterson at #6 in dynasty RB's? Im a future Peterson owner, and I am highly optimistic but I wouldn't have him nearly that high. Any reason why?

That's exactly where I have him. I think he's the most talented runner to come into the league since Marshall Faulk and maybe Bo Jackson...though I was sleeping a bit on Tomlinson when he came into the league.Here's my question for Chris Smith: Do tight ends get extra points for being African-American in your league? How do you explain Alex Smith & Ben Troupe being significantly higher in your rankings than Chris Cooley & Jason Witten (not to mention Tony Gonzalez)? Do you get punished in your league for having tight ends that produce?

 

[salmonstud]

Chris,

Call your primary care physician....you have RookieItus!

You obviously put a huge emphasis on youth & upside vs. steady vets that have a limited ceiling or are at the perceived peak of their fantasy production. Nothing wrong with that but I guess my rankings are more conserative in that I hate to buy a car without taking it for a test drive.

You could argue that you have seen rookies play for years at the college level...but even the most keen scouts are just plain wrong at times and the production seen at the college level doesn't transfer to the Pro level. In your rankings you seem to always rank the steady vets significantly lower than your peers and the rooks significantly higher.

Ranking Peterson as RB#6 & Calvin Johnson WR#4 is a huge leap of faith IMO. Peterson might be very special...he could be the next Eric Dickerson....but he could be the next T.Davis that explodes for a few years but due to his running style and the abuse he will take has a very short career....limiting his fantasy value over the long haul.

Martz doesn't have Bulger or the O-line he had in St.Louis. I don't believe the Lions will ever get things right.....(& I'm a Detroit fan)....I don't see the Lions offense supporting two WR's that will be in the top 5 at their position. Harrison & R.Wayne are an anomolie. Roy Williams will garner just as many red zone targets as Johnson....they are both very similiar in size & strength. This will negate CJ from consistantly being a top 5 fantasy WR until Roy gets injured or leaves town.

I'm guessing you have had Harrison ranked significantly lower than most of your dynasty ranking peers over the past few years...and the drop off just hasn't happened. Sometimes it's comforting knowing what you are getting with a vet vs. putting a huge emphasis on unproven rooks.

 

[Lombaowski]

 

[comfortably numb]

Good job Chris,

You are in the minority as far as Caddy is concerned.

What puts him ahead of guys like Addai, Alexander, Maroney.

I have seen all those guys go pretty high in most recent draft, while Caddy is always a late RD 2.

Is that more a product of your good thoughts of Caddy, or are you down on the mentioned 3?

 

[Limp Dogg Bizkits]

Just wondering why you have R. Moss as the 33rd overall WR.

 

[Chris Smith]

Peterson at #6 in dynasty RB's? Im a future Peterson owner, and I am highly optimistic but I wouldn't have him nearly that high. Any reason why?

Every so often a running back comes out with the potential to be great. Elite even. Peterson has that talent. I look at it this way. If there is a player you really believe is going to great over multiple years in a dynasty league, you have to make sure you get him on your roster. The 6th spot in the draft is the place I would take him over the other running backs on the board. Right or wrong, when I have a strong feeling on a player, I am going to rank him where I have the best chance to get him on my team.

 

[Chris Smith]

Peterson at #6 in dynasty RB's? Im a future Peterson owner, and I am highly optimistic but I wouldn't have him nearly that high. Any reason why?

That's exactly where I have him. I think he's the most talented runner to come into the league since Marshall Faulk and maybe Bo Jackson...though I was sleeping a bit on Tomlinson when he came into the league.Here's my question for Chris Smith: Do tight ends get extra points for being African-American in your league? How do you explain Alex Smith & Ben Troupe being significantly higher in your rankings than Chris Cooley & Jason Witten (not to mention Tony Gonzalez)? Do you get punished in your league for having tight ends that produce?

:X I could care less what color skin they have, where they grew up or where they went to school. I try to break down talent and situation and then rank them accordingly... Gonzalez I talked about in another thread but I see the Chiefs offense really plummeting this season and with his getting older, his window is getting smaller...

It's tough ranking tight ends as so many of them are within points of each other in my projections so I try to go one step further in dynasty and figure out who I think has the best chance to become elite.

In regards to Alex Smith. I think I may have screwed the pooch somewhat on him. I thought I had read earlier this offseason that he was going to be an important piece of the puzzle this season but looking back through past articles now, I can't find it so maybe I was mistaken.

I believe I will be bumping him back and allowing others such as the ones you mentioned to float above him.

BTW: I think Todd Heap is non-African American

 

[Chris Smith]

Chris,Call your primary care physician....you have RookieItus!You obviously put a huge emphasis on youth & upside vs. steady vets that have a limited ceiling or are at the perceived peak of their fantasy production. Nothing wrong with that but I guess my rankings are more conserative in that I hate to buy a car without taking it for a test drive. You could argue that you have seen rookies play for years at the college level...but even the most keen scouts are just plain wrong at times and the production seen at the college level doesn't transfer to the Pro level. In your rankings you seem to always rank the steady vets significantly lower than your peers and the rooks significantly higher.Ranking Peterson as RB#6 & Calvin Johnson WR#4 is a huge leap of faith IMO. Peterson might be very special...he could be the next Eric Dickerson....but he could be the next T.Davis that explodes for a few years but due to his running style and the abuse he will take has a very short career....limiting his fantasy value over the long haul. Martz doesn't have Bulger or the O-line he had in St.Louis. I don't believe the Lions will ever get things right.....(& I'm a Detroit fan)....I don't see the Lions offense supporting two WR's that will be in the top 5 at their position. Harrison & R.Wayne are an anomolie. Roy Williams will garner just as many red zone targets as Johnson....they are both very similiar in size & strength. This will negate CJ from consistantly being a top 5 fantasy WR until Roy gets injured or leaves town. I'm guessing you have had Harrison ranked significantly lower than most of your dynasty ranking peers over the past few years...and the drop off just hasn't happened. Sometimes it's comforting knowing what you are getting with a vet vs. putting a huge emphasis on unproven rooks.

Good comments and I hear what you are saying... However when it comes to dynasty football, I like to target the players I believe can not only play well but dominate for years to come. With the 6th pick, sure I could take Westbrook, Cadillac or Alexander and know I will be getting a good player. However with Peterson is see his upside being huge and to me his floor is no worse than a solid #1 starter. Could I be wrong? Sure I could but that can be said with any player at any point in their career and you have to follow your gut to be good in Dynasty football.And Calvin Johnson... The dude is a phenom. Incredible size, speed, hands, practices hard and has a great atttitude. I see him as Randy Moss, Jerry Rice and Steve Largent rolled into one. If I'm wrong, I am confident in my drafting ability to have a good 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th option on my roster to call upon but I don't think my analysis on him is incorrect.I do think I have rookie-ItUs or all of them would be ranked highly. However I do think there are certain players every year which should be targeted and are worth the risk. Each of the rookies I have ranked highly and indeed worth that risk.You can go ahead and draft that conservative team and you'll do very well. I'll draft the players I am most confident in whether they have showcased it or not and at the end of the day, I'll still be good unless I am off on more players than I hit on. If I am right on these impact youngsters though, my squad will dominate for a long time to come.Great comments!

 

[Chris Smith]

I did tweak my dynasty TE rankings. I believe Alex Smith was a little over-valued as was Troupe. I dropped them a little in the rankings.

 

[Chris Smith]

Just wondering why you have R. Moss as the 33rd overall WR.

I don't. I believe I have him ranked 15th or 16th... Too lazy to look it up.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Hi guys. For the most part, my dynasty rankings are ready to go. Still finalizing my early projections which could tweak the value of some of the players but for the most part, I feel confident with them.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/v...4&sortby=12

I would love to hear

1. The picks you love

2. The picks you loath

3. The picks you don't understand

- Reggie Bush at #3Reggie's value is less in a standard point scoring league.

- AP at #6 is close

If his shoulder checks out and if Tavaris can bring any sort of passing threat then AP is going to explode out of the gate behind Mt. McKinnie/Hutch/Birk and be even quicker on turf.

- MJD at #14 is close to where I think he ranks

Special RB, your ranking him right there.

- Caddy should be lower than #15

He's never regained the form of his first three games and unfortunately I don't that he will.

- Rudi should be higher than #26

He seems to be one of those guys people are not excited about but he needs a bump here.

- Edge is too high at #24

Dynasty RB rankings correct?

- Cedric Benson is too low at #33

Not sharing, nothing in his way, he's going to make owners happy.

- Lee Evans deserves a bump from #42

He beat me a few times last year so I gotta give him his due.

- Shockey at #43 and Kellen Winslow Junior at #70

Could you explain that one?

- LenDale at #34 and McAllister at #47

LenDale aspires to be as productive as Deuce McAllister.

- TJ HasToGoHigher than #57

Henry just got suspended and Chad is going to be doubled and get the #1 DB assigned to him.

- Ben Troupe at #69 and Kellen Winslow Junior at #70

Question. If you had the choice between Ben Troupe and KWII you would go Troupe?

I like the AP and MJD rankings and think others will come around to your stance. You may want to revisit TJ Housmandzadeh. Edge is starting his ninth year in the league off a season where his average dropped by .8 yards per attempt, his TDs fell down by 7, his yardage went down nearly 350 yards, his reception yards went down over a hundred yards. I dunno if he rates #24 in dynasty rankings. Oh and I like the Calvin Johnson ranking at #27 and Jamal Lewis at least being mentioned in your rankings where he was left out of the other two. I also like the Vernon Davis stab even if it appears a tad high to me.

I'm not ready to tackle doing rankings but its nice to see early efforts and I heartedly applaud the efforts of all but I am sure these will move around in the next few months. Nice rip.

 

[Burning Sensation]

BTW: Jeff and Sigmund are the cat's meow when it comes to Dynasty information. I simply enjoy participating in dynasty leagues so I put my rankings out there for everybody to see.

And now i shall point out some of your "subpar" rankings

QB's

Jamarcus Russell is WAY to high. Leinart, Cutler and Alex Smith should not be ranked higher than Rivers, Manning or Big Ben.

RB's

Addai should be higher than Caddy, and i would take Lynch over Edge in a second.

WR's

SMoss, Chambers, Cotchery and Hackett are all way to high.

These were a few i disagree with, but a pretty good job overall.

At least you dont have SA as the 5th ranked RB.

 

[BigTex]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB?



Are you serious?

 

[Faust]

 

[Chris Smith]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB? Are you serious?

Somebody's got to drink the Black and Silver kool-aid. Might as well be me I just don't see a ton to get overly excited about at the quarterback position right now. Long term, I would rather take a shot on Russell than many of the other guys there... I will say that I wouldn't consider much quarterbacks before round seven in a fantasy league. Manning, Brady and Palmer are the only three that would make me deviate from that strategy.

 

[Bri]

Good job or out of my mind?

Both bro but good job esp

 

[Donnybrook]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB? Are you serious?

You have Ronald Curry ranked at 73. It seems a tad low to me.

 

[Chris Smith]

Good job or out of my mind?

Both bro but good job esp

/

 

[fsufan]

when ranking players for dynasty, how many years down the road do you look at?

 

[Mapmaker]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB?



Are you serious?

Somebody's got to drink the Black and Silver kool-aid. Might as well be me I just don't see a ton to get overly excited about at the quarterback position right now. Long term, I would rather take a shot on Russell than many of the other guys there...

I will say that I wouldn't consider much quarterbacks before round seven in a fantasy league. Manning, Brady and Palmer are the only three that would make me deviate from that strategy.

I have to think you have JaMarcus Russell mixed up with an actual QB that plays in St.Louis that happens to actually have a WR corp to throw to, ... if Bulgar is a 16 and Russell is a 7 any time in the next 3 years I'll have to start rethinking the whole Santa Clause, Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny thing ....Aside from this terrible, terrible call on both QB's I'm on board with your first pass at the QB's

 

[Fear & Loathing]

when ranking players for dynasty, how many years down the road do you look at?

I play to fly the championship banner every year and let other teams worry about the future. Too much can change too quickly in the NFL due to unforeseen circumstances that are out of your control. I basically build a young nucleus and make sure my starting lineup is filled with players I expect to perform well in the current season. The rest of my roster will be a healthy balance of veterans and youngsters at various stages of their careers, but I'm constantly reassessing my non-nucleus players based on perceived trade value. As long as you have a good mixture, you don't have to follow a set rule of looking "X amount of years down the road." If I had Shaun Alexander as my #1 RB last year, I would have made certain I was looking down the road for my #2 RB. If I have Larry Fitzgerald as my #1 WR, then it's not as important to worry about the future with my #2 WR. An aging veteran like Marvin Harrison or T.O. may be a better fit than a talented young WR loaded with more potential than results.I know that doesn't really answer your question, but that's because there really is no systematic answer to your question. When I rank dynasty players, I don't have a set rule for all players looking at 3 years down the road or 5 years down the road. I evaluate the talent, situation and track record for each player and see who comes out on top. Then go down one at a time from there.

 

[Pictus Cat]

I look forward to your rankings and projections every year. They seem to come out the closest to my thinking.

 

[Two Deep]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB?



Are you serious?

Somebody's got to drink the Black and Silver kool-aid. Might as well be me I just don't see a ton to get overly excited about at the quarterback position right now. Long term, I would rather take a shot on Russell than many of the other guys there...

I will say that I wouldn't consider much quarterbacks before round seven in a fantasy league. Manning, Brady and Palmer are the only three that would make me deviate from that strategy.

I have to think you have JaMarcus Russell mixed up with an actual QB that plays in St.Louis that happens to actually have a WR corp to throw to, ... if Bulgar is a 16 and Russell is a 7 any time in the next 3 years I'll have to start rethinking the whole Santa Clause, Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny thing ....Aside from this terrible, terrible call on both QB's I'm on board with your first pass at the QB's

Ditto on Bulger, he should be right behind Brady IMO

 

[nygiants56]

Chris, good list!

about E. James at #21, what are your thoughts on him for 2007, new line, new coaching staff swearing to give him a TON of carries, etc...wondering if you think he has a chance to move into your top 15 ?

 

[Chris Smith]

Chris, good list!about E. James at #21, what are your thoughts on him for 2007, new line, new coaching staff swearing to give him a TON of carries, etc...wondering if you think he has a chance to move into your top 15 ?

Yeah he definitely may climb. His attitude seems great this year and I actually like what I see in the desert right now. If Brown can claim the starting spot as it looks like he may, there is some talent along the offensive line and with Russ Grimm on board, there is potential for a very strong season out of this unit.I'll be watching this situation closely throughout the next couple of months but don't be surprised to see James elevate.

 

[Chris Smith]

JaMarcus Russell #7 ranked QB?



Are you serious?

Somebody's got to drink the Black and Silver kool-aid. Might as well be me I just don't see a ton to get overly excited about at the quarterback position right now. Long term, I would rather take a shot on Russell than many of the other guys there...

I will say that I wouldn't consider much quarterbacks before round seven in a fantasy league. Manning, Brady and Palmer are the only three that would make me deviate from that strategy.

I have to think you have JaMarcus Russell mixed up with an actual QB that plays in St.Louis that happens to actually have a WR corp to throw to, ... if Bulgar is a 16 and Russell is a 7 any time in the next 3 years I'll have to start rethinking the whole Santa Clause, Tooth Fairy, Easter Bunny thing ....Aside from this terrible, terrible call on both QB's I'm on board with your first pass at the QB's

Ditto on Bulger, he should be right behind Brady IMO

Hi there... I didn't want to respond to this right away as I went back to reflect once again on the quarterback situation. Looking at Bulger's age and talent around him, I do believe I erred somewhat in my rankings of him. I didn't move him up behind Brady but did move him right below Vick and Leinart. Depending on what happens with Vick over the next while, I may move him up above Vick but I love the potential of Leinart in this offense and he'll stay above Bulger.I do see what you're saying about Russell and did raise Bulger above him. However the same thing could have been said about Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer in their rookie year. Sometimes if you believe in the talent of a player, it makes sense to roll the dice.

if I did take Russell say in round six however I would make sure to team him with a proven veteran to cover both the short term and long term prognosis of the team...

something like a

Delhomme/Russell

combination...

Good comments guys

 

[Chris Smith]

when ranking players for dynasty, how many years down the road do you look at?

I think one of the problems in dynasty rankings is I tend to do a hybrid of 'now' and 'future' value when in dynasty drafts. For example if I take Calvin Johnson early, I am very likely to go proven vet as my 2nd, 3rd and 4th receivers. Same thing with the RB position, TE position and QB position...My draft board is always very flexible in dynasty drafts and I always walk away with young talent for the future but a core group of veterans to keep me in the running each year...That is why it is difficult for me to put players down to rankings as mine tend to be very fluid depending on who I draft when...I appreciate all the comments guys. Helps me to tighten up my rankings and the discussion is great for everyone

 

[Routilla]

I would want Addai, Maroney, and MJD over AP based on what they each showed last year and their team's situation(all good IMO) vs AP on a team with an unproven QB and unproven passing game. Factor in his injury concerns and I think he's too high. But good work cranking out that list, it is certainly worthy of consideration.