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My gut (not brain) tells me.... (Wild prediction thread) (1 Viewer)

Like the title states... A fun one to revisit at season's end.

My gut "lock" - Damien Harris leads ALL rbs this season, in rushing TDs.

Go.
Better offense and no RS to deal with I like. I still worry that Allen might steal some of those though.
 
Pats go 7-10 and Kraft replaces Belichick with Mayo during the offseason.
I will defend and die on the hill that BB will NEVER be replaced. At some point he will retire, but NE will never fire him. And on the topic at hand, the Patriots lose this year in the AFCCG.
Unless they have the ‘86 Bears or ‘00 Ravens defense I don’t see them making postseason. How long of a leash does Kraft give BB? Kraft likes his team (and himself ) in the spotlight and he won’t put up with too many more Patriot seasons ending after week 18. BB is one of the best to ever do it but all things come to an end and they rarely have the fairy tale ending, again, just my gut.
 
I hope you guys are all correct. I have drafted a lot of these players.

Spears finishes as a top 24 back.
Love finishes as a top 12 QB
Ferguson finishes as a top 8 TE
JSN is the best Seahawks receiver after week 10.
 
Pats go 7-10 and Kraft replaces Belichick with Mayo during the offseason.
I will defend and die on the hill that BB will NEVER be replaced. At some point he will retire, but NE will never fire him. And on the topic at hand, the Patriots lose this year in the AFCCG.
Unless they have the ‘86 Bears or ‘00 Ravens defense I don’t see them making postseason. How long of a leash does Kraft give BB? Kraft likes his team (and himself ) in the spotlight and he won’t put up with too many more Patriot seasons ending after week 18. BB is one of the best to ever do it but all things come to an end and they rarely have the fairy tale ending, again, just my gut.
I have heard from enough people (including Kraft himself) that BB essentially has a lifetime contract and has done so much for the franchise that he will never be given the boot. He's there until he decides to leave (which means hang them up . . . he won't leave to go coach somewhere else). All the other interpretation of comments are click bait and trying to create a story and a narrative that I don't believe exists.

As far as the team's outlook, IMO (and the opinion of others), the 2023 offense should be looked at as a more season of the 2021 team that won 10 games. They are back to having a real OC (unlike last year which was amateur hour). I have no idea why BB went with the coaching staff that they had last year. That likely was his worse decision in his entire tenure with the team. That 2021 team ranked 6th in points score. I don't think it's crazy for them to get back to that range this season. That 2021 squad had a +159 (which was 3rd in the league).

Jones is now heading into Year 3 with a normal offseason and an actual offensive coaching staff. Remember as a rookie, he didn't even get regular reps in training camp . . . Cam got the first team reps. Last training camp, the coaching staff had literally no clue running an offense. This year, BOB has already settled down the offense and the players have bought in. The offensive skill players are ok . . . WR's are great but are passable, they have 2 decent TE, and Stevenson is one of the better backs in the league. Their obvious and glaring weakness is at OT, and if they can figure that out, they should be able to move the ball and score some points, especially if the defense is solid. IMO, the offense should be good enough to keep the defense off the field for some lengthy drives, meaning both units can help the other.

As has come up in other thread, NE was literally a few plays away from winning 11 games last year and those handful of plays cost them wins very late in games. I get it, the standings show 8 wins, not 11. But take the fumble away from RS against CIN, the lateral play out of the LV game, and the overturned TD from Hunter Henry in MIN and who knows what the perception of NE would have been at 11-6 vs. 8-9.

I get it. On paper, NE doesn't look like they have many impact players/ But Kendrick Bourne in 2021 was one of the most explosive players after the catch. Devante Parker last year did extremely well when they got him the football . . . they just didn't make much effort to get him the ball. And the buzz all off season has been that Thornton could make a huge leap this year and has been a different player. That's all without Hopkins in the equation. (Who knows if they will add him, but it is still a possibility.)

The point being, the past two seasons showed some decent outcomes and results in some areas, and they don't seem to be a 5-7 win team like some people are projecting. Every team in the AFC East has a tough schedule . . . so it's not like one team gets a free ride while another gets the all playoff teams. Maybe the talent level catches up to them, but I think they are more talented than people seem to think they are. BB can still coach, BOB is still a well established OC, the defense should still be one of the better units in the league, and I think they can win a couple more of those games that they blew last year on dumb mistakes.
 
Pats go 7-10 and Kraft replaces Belichick with Mayo during the offseason.
I will defend and die on the hill that BB will NEVER be replaced. At some point he will retire, but NE will never fire him. And on the topic at hand, the Patriots lose this year in the AFCCG.
Unless they have the ‘86 Bears or ‘00 Ravens defense I don’t see them making postseason. How long of a leash does Kraft give BB? Kraft likes his team (and himself ) in the spotlight and he won’t put up with too many more Patriot seasons ending after week 18. BB is one of the best to ever do it but all things come to an end and they rarely have the fairy tale ending, again, just my gut.
I have heard from enough people (including Kraft himself) that BB essentially has a lifetime contract and has done so much for the franchise that he will never be given the boot. He's there until he decides to leave (which means hang them up . . . he won't leave to go coach somewhere else). All the other interpretation of comments are click bait and trying to create a story and a narrative that I don't believe exists.

As far as the team's outlook, IMO (and the opinion of others), the 2023 offense should be looked at as a more season of the 2021 team that won 10 games. They are back to having a real OC (unlike last year which was amateur hour). I have no idea why BB went with the coaching staff that they had last year. That likely was his worse decision in his entire tenure with the team. That 2021 team ranked 6th in points score. I don't think it's crazy for them to get back to that range this season. That 2021 squad had a +159 (which was 3rd in the league).

Jones is now heading into Year 3 with a normal offseason and an actual offensive coaching staff. Remember as a rookie, he didn't even get regular reps in training camp . . . Cam got the first team reps. Last training camp, the coaching staff had literally no clue running an offense. This year, BOB has already settled down the offense and the players have bought in. The offensive skill players are ok . . . WR's are great but are passable, they have 2 decent TE, and Stevenson is one of the better backs in the league. Their obvious and glaring weakness is at OT, and if they can figure that out, they should be able to move the ball and score some points, especially if the defense is solid. IMO, the offense should be good enough to keep the defense off the field for some lengthy drives, meaning both units can help the other.

As has come up in other thread, NE was literally a few plays away from winning 11 games last year and those handful of plays cost them wins very late in games. I get it, the standings show 8 wins, not 11. But take the fumble away from RS against CIN, the lateral play out of the LV game, and the overturned TD from Hunter Henry in MIN and who knows what the perception of NE would have been at 11-6 vs. 8-9.

I get it. On paper, NE doesn't look like they have many impact players/ But Kendrick Bourne in 2021 was one of the most explosive players after the catch. Devante Parker last year did extremely well when they got him the football . . . they just didn't make much effort to get him the ball. And the buzz all off season has been that Thornton could make a huge leap this year and has been a different player. That's all without Hopkins in the equation. (Who knows if they will add him, but it is still a possibility.)

The point being, the past two seasons showed some decent outcomes and results in some areas, and they don't seem to be a 5-7 win team like some people are projecting. Every team in the AFC East has a tough schedule . . . so it's not like one team gets a free ride while another gets the all playoff teams. Maybe the talent level catches up to them, but I think they are more talented than people seem to think they are. BB can still coach, BOB is still a well established OC, the defense should still be one of the better units in the league, and I think they can win a couple more of those games that they blew last year on dumb mistakes.
You know the Pats, no denying that. BB floor was 7 wins with Cam and this roster is better than that. AFCE is much tougher than it was during the 00s and 10s and the AFC is loaded with athletic young QBs. To me Pats are an 8-10 win team and that is more optimistic than what Vegas thinks of them.

Pats had a 20yr run of excellence but Pats are just another team right now and if Mac isn’t the guy (which I certainly think he can be) then Pats and BB will be in a tough spot. Needless to say this is a pivotal year for BB and MJ10.
 
Pats go 7-10 and Kraft replaces Belichick with Mayo during the offseason.
I will defend and die on the hill that BB will NEVER be replaced. At some point he will retire, but NE will never fire him. And on the topic at hand, the Patriots lose this year in the AFCCG.
Unless they have the ‘86 Bears or ‘00 Ravens defense I don’t see them making postseason. How long of a leash does Kraft give BB? Kraft likes his team (and himself ) in the spotlight and he won’t put up with too many more Patriot seasons ending after week 18. BB is one of the best to ever do it but all things come to an end and they rarely have the fairy tale ending, again, just my gut.
I have heard from enough people (including Kraft himself) that BB essentially has a lifetime contract and has done so much for the franchise that he will never be given the boot. He's there until he decides to leave (which means hang them up . . . he won't leave to go coach somewhere else). All the other interpretation of comments are click bait and trying to create a story and a narrative that I don't believe exists.

As far as the team's outlook, IMO (and the opinion of others), the 2023 offense should be looked at as a more season of the 2021 team that won 10 games. They are back to having a real OC (unlike last year which was amateur hour). I have no idea why BB went with the coaching staff that they had last year. That likely was his worse decision in his entire tenure with the team. That 2021 team ranked 6th in points score. I don't think it's crazy for them to get back to that range this season. That 2021 squad had a +159 (which was 3rd in the league).

Jones is now heading into Year 3 with a normal offseason and an actual offensive coaching staff. Remember as a rookie, he didn't even get regular reps in training camp . . . Cam got the first team reps. Last training camp, the coaching staff had literally no clue running an offense. This year, BOB has already settled down the offense and the players have bought in. The offensive skill players are ok . . . WR's are great but are passable, they have 2 decent TE, and Stevenson is one of the better backs in the league. Their obvious and glaring weakness is at OT, and if they can figure that out, they should be able to move the ball and score some points, especially if the defense is solid. IMO, the offense should be good enough to keep the defense off the field for some lengthy drives, meaning both units can help the other.

As has come up in other thread, NE was literally a few plays away from winning 11 games last year and those handful of plays cost them wins very late in games. I get it, the standings show 8 wins, not 11. But take the fumble away from RS against CIN, the lateral play out of the LV game, and the overturned TD from Hunter Henry in MIN and who knows what the perception of NE would have been at 11-6 vs. 8-9.

I get it. On paper, NE doesn't look like they have many impact players/ But Kendrick Bourne in 2021 was one of the most explosive players after the catch. Devante Parker last year did extremely well when they got him the football . . . they just didn't make much effort to get him the ball. And the buzz all off season has been that Thornton could make a huge leap this year and has been a different player. That's all without Hopkins in the equation. (Who knows if they will add him, but it is still a possibility.)

The point being, the past two seasons showed some decent outcomes and results in some areas, and they don't seem to be a 5-7 win team like some people are projecting. Every team in the AFC East has a tough schedule . . . so it's not like one team gets a free ride while another gets the all playoff teams. Maybe the talent level catches up to them, but I think they are more talented than people seem to think they are. BB can still coach, BOB is still a well established OC, the defense should still be one of the better units in the league, and I think they can win a couple more of those games that they blew last year on dumb mistakes.
To me it is the whole flow in the coaching dynamics. BOB is back, so Bill can now focus almost entirely on the Defense. Joe Judge can focus almost entirely on special teams. They added three really good defensive players in the Draft. They won't score 8 DST touchdowns again, but their defense will be top five. Mac Jones is tough and smart. He may not have as much talent as the top QB's, but he has been a winner his whole life until last year. Bill is pissed off and Mac has a chip on his shoulder. The Patriots are being underestimated for 2023.
 
Pats go 7-10 and Kraft replaces Belichick with Mayo during the offseason.
I will defend and die on the hill that BB will NEVER be replaced. At some point he will retire, but NE will never fire him. And on the topic at hand, the Patriots lose this year in the AFCCG.
Unless they have the ‘86 Bears or ‘00 Ravens defense I don’t see them making postseason. How long of a leash does Kraft give BB? Kraft likes his team (and himself ) in the spotlight and he won’t put up with too many more Patriot seasons ending after week 18. BB is one of the best to ever do it but all things come to an end and they rarely have the fairy tale ending, again, just my gut.
I have heard from enough people (including Kraft himself) that BB essentially has a lifetime contract and has done so much for the franchise that he will never be given the boot. He's there until he decides to leave (which means hang them up . . . he won't leave to go coach somewhere else). All the other interpretation of comments are click bait and trying to create a story and a narrative that I don't believe exists.

As far as the team's outlook, IMO (and the opinion of others), the 2023 offense should be looked at as a more season of the 2021 team that won 10 games. They are back to having a real OC (unlike last year which was amateur hour). I have no idea why BB went with the coaching staff that they had last year. That likely was his worse decision in his entire tenure with the team. That 2021 team ranked 6th in points score. I don't think it's crazy for them to get back to that range this season. That 2021 squad had a +159 (which was 3rd in the league).

Jones is now heading into Year 3 with a normal offseason and an actual offensive coaching staff. Remember as a rookie, he didn't even get regular reps in training camp . . . Cam got the first team reps. Last training camp, the coaching staff had literally no clue running an offense. This year, BOB has already settled down the offense and the players have bought in. The offensive skill players are ok . . . WR's are great but are passable, they have 2 decent TE, and Stevenson is one of the better backs in the league. Their obvious and glaring weakness is at OT, and if they can figure that out, they should be able to move the ball and score some points, especially if the defense is solid. IMO, the offense should be good enough to keep the defense off the field for some lengthy drives, meaning both units can help the other.

As has come up in other thread, NE was literally a few plays away from winning 11 games last year and those handful of plays cost them wins very late in games. I get it, the standings show 8 wins, not 11. But take the fumble away from RS against CIN, the lateral play out of the LV game, and the overturned TD from Hunter Henry in MIN and who knows what the perception of NE would have been at 11-6 vs. 8-9.

I get it. On paper, NE doesn't look like they have many impact players/ But Kendrick Bourne in 2021 was one of the most explosive players after the catch. Devante Parker last year did extremely well when they got him the football . . . they just didn't make much effort to get him the ball. And the buzz all off season has been that Thornton could make a huge leap this year and has been a different player. That's all without Hopkins in the equation. (Who knows if they will add him, but it is still a possibility.)

The point being, the past two seasons showed some decent outcomes and results in some areas, and they don't seem to be a 5-7 win team like some people are projecting. Every team in the AFC East has a tough schedule . . . so it's not like one team gets a free ride while another gets the all playoff teams. Maybe the talent level catches up to them, but I think they are more talented than people seem to think they are. BB can still coach, BOB is still a well established OC, the defense should still be one of the better units in the league, and I think they can win a couple more of those games that they blew last year on dumb mistakes.
To me it is the whole flow in the coaching dynamics. BOB is back, so Bill can now focus almost entirely on the Defense. Joe Judge can focus almost entirely on special teams. They added three really good defensive players in the Draft. They won't score 8 DST touchdowns again, but their defense will be top five. Mac Jones is tough and smart. He may not have as much talent as the top QB's, but he has been a winner his whole life until last year. Bill is pissed off and Mac has a chip on his shoulder. The Patriots are being underestimated for 2023.
Agree but what is their ceiling? Don’t think they’re a top 2-3 team in AFC
 
You know the Pats, no denying that. BB floor was 7 wins with Cam and this roster is better than that. AFCE is much tougher than it was during the 00s and 10s and the AFC is loaded with athletic young QBs. To me Pats are an 8-10 win team and that is more optimistic than what Vegas thinks of them.

Pats had a 20yr run of excellence but Pats are just another team right now and if Mac isn’t the guy (which I certainly think he can be) then Pats and BB will be in a tough spot. Needless to say this is a pivotal year for BB and MJ10.
There are many more reasons to be down on NE than there are to like them. The AFC is loaded with QBs (which was never a thing in the TB years). But every year there are teams that don't quite pan out as expected (for example, DEN, LV, and CLE last year). There are usually a couple of teams that fall off due to key injuries or teams that do better than expected (like MIN last year). I am not convinced that Aaron Rodgers is going to get to NE and make a huge impact. The Packers have been very strong both offensively and defensively in recent years . . . and with ARod only had 8 wins. He's better than Wilson, but the Jets have the same tough schedule as NE. The Jets should be a little better . . . but I can still see them being out of the playoffs. MIA is another team that has big names and looks good on paper . . . but they were very close to finishing behind NE last year (and by all accounts the Pats should be better than last year).

I don't think we are that far off . . . NE could be a 10-win team that gets a couple extra calls, gets a couple of bounces, or otherwise wins 3 extra games that they lost last year and they are at 11 wins (even being less talented than other teams). While unlikely, I could see NE avoiding the top seeds in the early rounds of the playoffs and getting a win against a team that snuck into the playoffs and then maybe going to someplace like JAX and the Jags getting outcoached (with Lawrence struggling against the defense).

I think Mac shows improvement, and that gets NE in the mix. Maybe I'm crazy, but I see a roadmap for NE being a competitive team. That being said, they still should have fatal flaws. They are very unlikely to win in a track meet / shootout. They are not built to come from behind. And there are a lot of areas that need improve that they won't do well without those improvements. We may see some games like we saw with early Brady. They might win some games without any standout performances against teams with better players . . . and people will watch the games and look at the box scores and openly wonder how they won.
 
Agree but what is their ceiling? Don’t think they’re a top 2-3 team in AFC
As of now they aren't. But no one thought much of them in 2001. They really were ignored in 2003. And in 2018, they were still considered a playoff team based on their division, but most everyone had them being an easy out in the post season. Yeah, I know, they don't have Brady, so a lot of their season hangs on Mac Jones making some significant improvement. And for all the Zappe fans, he's their backup. There is no QB battle or controversy.
 
Like the title states... A fun one to revisit at season's end.
So, we’re already planting flags, but with our guts?
:oldunsure:

My gut flag says:
• Rashod Bateman leads all BAL receivers (including Andrews) in FF scoring. Is a WR2 for FF rosters

• James Cook leads all rushers for BUF. Is a RB2 for FF rosters

• Sam Howell is a top 10 FF QB & good enough in RL to get signed to a long-term contract

• Desmond Ridder is a bottom 10 FF QB, and bad enough in RL that the Falcons will be selecting a QB early in the 2024 draft.
 
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Agree but what is their ceiling? Don’t think they’re a top 2-3 team in AFC
As of now they aren't. But no one thought much of them in 2001. They really were ignored in 2003. And in 2018, they were still considered a playoff team based on their division, but most everyone had them being an easy out in the post season. Yeah, I know, they don't have Brady, so a lot of their season hangs on Mac Jones making some significant improvement. And for all the Zappe fans, he's their backup. There is no QB battle or controversy.
Not to sound like a jerk but TB12 was here then. Mac has a lot to prove
 
Mr. Gotham City, AKA A-Rod, emerges from his bat cave just in time to entice Isaac Bruce and Reggie Wayne out of retirement. He leads the Jets to the best record in the AFC, but donkeys off another home playoff game to Broadway Joe Burrow.
Shut it down. This is the best response. Y’all don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here.
 
Agree but what is their ceiling? Don’t think they’re a top 2-3 team in AFC
As of now they aren't. But no one thought much of them in 2001. They really were ignored in 2003. And in 2018, they were still considered a playoff team based on their division, but most everyone had them being an easy out in the post season. Yeah, I know, they don't have Brady, so a lot of their season hangs on Mac Jones making some significant improvement. And for all the Zappe fans, he's their backup. There is no QB battle or controversy.

Saying they don't have Brady is the biggest understatement of 2023.
 
and if Mac isn’t the guy (which I certainly think he can be)
IMO Mac is exactly the guy scouts said he was coming out of college: the most NFL-ready with the lowest upside. He showed more than expected year 1, and looked very JAG-ish year 2.

Will he put it all together in year 3? :shrug: I think he just needs to be the guy he was in year 1. Keep expectations realistic. Minimize mistakes. Don’t play hero ball.
 
Agree but what is their ceiling? Don’t think they’re a top 2-3 team in AFC
As of now they aren't. But no one thought much of them in 2001. They really were ignored in 2003. And in 2018, they were still considered a playoff team based on their division, but most everyone had them being an easy out in the post season. Yeah, I know, they don't have Brady, so a lot of their season hangs on Mac Jones making some significant improvement. And for all the Zappe fans, he's their backup. There is no QB battle or controversy.
Not to sound like a jerk but TB12 was here then. Mac has a lot to prove
Trust me, I get it. But TB had training wheels on in his first few seasons. It's not really relevant as the league is way different now, but TB had 2800/18/12 in 2001 and 3600/23/12 in 2003. He wasn't the guy that he turned into back then. The bigger issue is whether NE can still win with the strategy that they utilized when Brady was there. I would emphatically say NO . . . which means they will need to be more aggressive offensively and not just rely on a strong defense, limiting mistakes on offense, and hoping / expecting the other team to mess up. I see them as having to push the ball more offensively against a lot of teams . . . and it's going to fall on Mac to make more plays. Not that complicated to figure out what they will have to do . . . it's whether than can pull it off.
 
and if Mac isn’t the guy (which I certainly think he can be)
IMO Mac is exactly the guy scouts said he was coming out of college: the most NFL-ready with the lowest upside. He showed more than expected year 1, and looked very JAG-ish year 2.

Will he put it all together in year 3? :shrug: I think he just needs to be the guy he was in year 1. Keep expectations realistic. Minimize mistakes. Don’t play hero ball.
I don't have to watch a single game to know that Mac Jones will be better on an offense that has a legit offensive coordinator that has actually called plays for years, a QB mentor, and an actual OL coach . . . all of whom who have actually coached offense before. I put most of the blame for a miserable 2022 campaign on the lack of coaching . . . Mac went a little off the rails on his own, but 80%+ of last year was the complete lack of an offensive coaching staff to work with.
 
Mac went a little off the rails on his own, but 80%+ of last year was the complete lack of an offensive coaching staff to work with.
And 20% of it was a lack of maturity, verbally scrapping with the venerable HC, and making terrible throws that were intercepted.

I’m just sayin. The Pats just need him to be Brock Purdy-esque. Lunchbox. Go to work, do your job.
 
Mac went a little off the rails on his own, but 80%+ of last year was the complete lack of an offensive coaching staff to work with.
And 20% of it was a lack of maturity, verbally scrapping with the venerable HC, and making terrible throws that were intercepted.

I’m just sayin. The Pats just need him to be Brock Purdy-esque. Lunchbox. Go to work, do your job.
There's no doubt the NE offense had major issues last year. It took them too long to call and communicate a play, which resulted in personnel not getting on the field and aligned properly, which also led to issues getting plays off on time and then getting pointless penalties. Just cleaning that up will extend drives, result in more points, and keep the defense a little fresher. But none of that will show up on an analysis of this year's team. It will just be an across the board benefit.
 
Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins sign very team friendly contracts, with fully guaranteed money all the way, and the ability to opt out of the contract midway through.
(Yeah, it's a stretch, but there's been basically zero chatter out of Cincy about the negotiations, and my gut says they're waiting for Herbert to sign a massive extension to drop this.)

NE goes 0-6 against the AFC East, and is the only team in the division to finish with a losing record.
(Not a stretch.) (Sorry Anarchy, but things have changed.)

Amon-Ra is exposed as a JAG. Detriots' offense looks great, and Gibbs and Jamo (eventually) are the two starring in the highlight films. (Amon-Ra does put up decent numbers, but his days as a top 10 dynasty WR are over.)
 
Arizona cardinals draft 1, 2 in 2024.

Two of the four teams playing in the conference championships would make their first SB. But both lose.

Kyle Pitts shows us why he was drafted so highly, top 3 TE

Levis starts by week 10
 
Gut statement::: New Orleans offense scores Top 4 in league & they take NFC South title (not major I know) but defense is bottom 10 and all games are fantasy valuable.

Panthers 2024 Pick will be Top 3 for Chicago

TB starts 1-5 & QB Mayfield will yield the position to Trask by week 6
 

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