My Projections - Things I Discovered (1 Viewer)

[Instinctive]

In following with the RB thread, here is how I got to this point: I individually project - within team context, my estimations of talent and such, changes in the past few years, career trends of the player and his team (I suppose that is all part of context), and a couple other factors - the stats for most of the fantasy relevant NFL players. Today I finished up WRs and TEs. I already made a RB post, and QB/TE should be forthcoming, depending on when I get out of class tonight and how travel goes tomorrow (for those of you looking forward to those threads).

RB Thread

QB Thread

When I finish my projections, I put them all into the DD, and I see what things I notice. Things don't always seem to fall into place like I think they will, and I'll discuss that in the observations I highlight. Here are my biggest discoveries at the WR position:

1. Hakeem Nicks is being overlooked - Projection: 81/1201/12

I was going through, making my projections, crafting them carefully, and at the end, I see that Nicks is standing out. The biggest reason is probably those 12 TDs...but they're actually in line with his career TD/rec% and fit within what I project Eli for, TD-wise. The yardage is nothing amazing, but still near the top of the league (I expect that to be a top 5-7 yardage number, though it would not have been last year). Nicks has a crazy low ADP for what I ended up having him at in my rankings. I would have taken Calvin, Fitz, AJ, Julio, Marshall, and a few others over Nicks, but:

Result: WR2. That's right, he ends up as my #2 overall wideout when it's all said and done. This is a guy it looks like I will have the pleasure of owning this year.

2. I'm lower on Julio Jones than I thought I was - Projection: 75/1148/9

I have been all over the Falcons offense, subjectively, in my mocks and preparations this year. But when I actually sat down, looked at the numbers, and made a projection of what would happen...this is what I got. I could be low on the TDs, and it is possible that he has a higher ypr (I lowered it from what he had last year, I don't think that will be sustainable)...but it looks like I will actually not own Julio at all. Just a short week ago I thought I would own him most places, and month ago I thought I would ALWAYS have him.

Result: WR11 - exactly one spot above his teammate, Roddy White. This result is going to lead into my next observation:

3. WRs are even closer together than everyone says.

My VBD results have Calvin at 60+, Nicks and Andre at 30+, and then six guys with 20-29, 2 guys at 18, and another 5 guys with 7-10 VBD. Calvin is far and away my #1 wideout, and I have him regressing a decent amount based on the unsustainability of Detroit's passing game last year as well as his TDs.

4. I love Marques Colston - Projection: 91/1274/8

Now, keep in mind that I project everyone for a full 16 games (except Mathews, Lynch types - suspended or already injured with a recovery timetable) because I think you can't predict injury. That being said: These numbers are surprisingly in line with Colston's typical targets and receptions per game, his career TD%, and his normal ypr. Meachem is gone, so I ended up giving him a little bit more on the targets side of things, but overall, these are less surprising than they first appear if you do some research (which I did when I found I had Colston in the top 10...)

Result: WR7 - Brees is literally the only QB with an extended history of throwing more than 620 times, for near/over 5000 yards. Colston is his top wideout, and with Meachem gone and none of the rookies looking healthy and able to step up, I think quite a few of the Saints players are undervalued. Lance Moore, Colston, Graham (even at his lofty ADP), and even Sproles.

5. I have both Miles Austin and Steve Johnson in the top 20 WRs, and they are the only two of mine with an ADP round 5 or later. Austin is the only guy I see in the top 15 with a round 5+ ADP. Looks like a value play to me!

Long story short: Miles Austin, when he and Romo are healthy, has always played like a top 5 wideout. I'm actually knocking him down because of Dez's improvement in placing him at WR9 or so. With Witten's potential issues, Austin could be leaned on more than ever. There's a lot of upside there, especially at his ADP.

Johnson is consistent, a clear #1 target, and on a team that will have at least a couple shootouts with their schedule. I like him a lot as a WR2/3/flex

 

[We Tigers]

Really enjoying this and the RB thread. I don't do full projections just because I lack confidence in pinning down TD numbers and whatnot, but I generally group guys into ranges that I'm comfortable with. I think an exercise like this could make me a better drafter with some practice.

One reason I didn't do a lot of projecting for WRs this year was that when I started digging into a few guys, I realized I was basically giving everyone in the top 25 by ADP at least 60-75 receptions, 900-1100 yards, and mid-high single digit TDs. Either I'm being too optimistic, or that grouping really does stretch a very long way. Perhaps this is somewhat tied to the NFL's increasing movement towards being a passing league, but it seems like more teams than usual have a lot of clarity in their passing games. There are very clear #1 receivers for many teams, and very clear pairs of top receivers on the biggest passing teams.

For me, the most interesting projections--really at any position--are the late-rounders. I spend more of my time unpacking Kendall Griffin, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey, Mike WIlliams, etc., trying to figure out which guy might be a steal.

 

[Instinctive]

Really enjoying this and the RB thread. I don't do full projections just because I lack confidence in pinning down TD numbers and whatnot, but I generally group guys into ranges that I'm comfortable with. I think an exercise like this could make me a better drafter with some practice. One reason I didn't do a lot of projecting for WRs this year was that when I started digging into a few guys, I realized I was basically giving everyone in the top 25 by ADP at least 60-75 receptions, 900-1100 yards, and mid-high single digit TDs. Either I'm being too optimistic, or that grouping really does stretch a very long way. Perhaps this is somewhat tied to the NFL's increasing movement towards being a passing league, but it seems like more teams than usual have a lot of clarity in their passing games. There are very clear #1 receivers for many teams, and very clear pairs of top receivers on the biggest passing teams. For me, the most interesting projections--really at any position--are the late-rounders. I spend more of my time unpacking Kendall Griffin, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffrey, Mike WIlliams, etc., trying to figure out which guy might be a steal.

I like the approach of spending time on the later round guys, but rather than projecting them, I typically just look at their chances of being a huge breakout guy. When you reach that far down, I lack confidence in my ability to actually project a huge breakout, so I'll tab guys with little notes like "overdraft b/c of _______" where the blank is some type of upside. Bilal Powell, for instance, I don't project. But I do tab him as a guy I want for the potential of taking over the Jets backfield at some point.On touchdowns - I use a couple factors in a certain mix: career TD%, looking at the other threats to score on a team, QB's career WR1/2/3/other pass TD distribution, build of the player (e.g. Nicks is gigantic, a good redzone threat), and a couple other things (like historic factors). Calvin Johnson, for instance, is a player who I have down for (off the top of my head, not checking) like 12 TDs. I generally do not like predicting TDs. So when I draft, outside of a few guys I tab as obvious redzone threats (like Calvin and Nicks) where I expect TDs to be there and important, I draft off of expected receptions and yardage because there seems to be much more predictive power in yardage than in TDs. TDs can be very volatile.ETA: and I'm glad you enjoy these. I notice people throwing out there rankings and such, but I feel like at least going through this exercise is something that always seems to reveal a few things I hadn't noticed before. I figured they would stand out as a bit different and, hopefully, a bit more valuable than many of the retread threads like "Here's my top 5!!!" that lack research and reasoning.

 

[Instinctive]

Something to note: my rankings come from a scoring system with 1/15 yardage points, and 0.5 PPR for wideouts. It is a bit unorthodox, but the league doesn't change it each year when I bring it up. It has little effect on rankings, except with a guy like Welker moving down, or a guy who has low catches and high ypr getting pushed up.

 

[moleculo]

I like these threads, thanks for putting them together and sharing.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Nicks has a crazy low ADP for what I ended up having him at in my rankings.

I'm not sure what the recent trend is, but Nicks ADP could be a result of early drafts where the situation regarding his broken foot wasn't quite clear yet.

 

[meyerj31]

Nicks has a crazy low ADP for what I ended up having him at in my rankings.

I'm not sure what the recent trend is, but Nicks ADP could be a result of early drafts where the situation regarding his broken foot wasn't quite clear yet.

I took Nicks at the 3.10 yesterday. I could not believe he fell that far. He's not a guy I wanted to take because I own him everywhere (got him cheap in some Dynasty leagues too) but with the value I think he's going to be on all my teams this year.Agree with Austin/Stevie. For where they are being drafted they are very good values. I'm sitting here late 5th, two spots from my pick, and Austin/Stevie/Maclin/Brown/Decker are all still available. LOTS of value in mid-round WRs this year.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

Thanks for the well thought out/well formatted post! I agree with you on Colston/Stevie J./Austin, although I don't think that I will be targeting Austin unless he is REALLY a value in my drafts. I have zero confidence in his hammy's holding up. I recently did my own mock of my main league, and I believe I have a very good chance of getting Colston as my #2 wideout in the late 5th/early 6th round(10-teamer start 2QB league). I believe that Colston is in line for his best season yet, with defenses no doubt being more focused on stopping Graham/Sproles. And Stevie J., not while being the most consitent guy week in and week out, should have quite a few big games when the shootouts commence.

 

[Instinctive]

Nicks has a crazy low ADP for what I ended up having him at in my rankings.

I'm not sure what the recent trend is, but Nicks ADP could be a result of early drafts where the situation regarding his broken foot wasn't quite clear yet.

I took Nicks at the 3.10 yesterday. I could not believe he fell that far. He's not a guy I wanted to take because I own him everywhere (got him cheap in some Dynasty leagues too) but with the value I think he's going to be on all my teams this year.Agree with Austin/Stevie. For where they are being drafted they are very good values. I'm sitting here late 5th, two spots from my pick, and Austin/Stevie/Maclin/Brown/Decker are all still available. LOTS of value in mid-round WRs this year.

I found I actually didn't like Maclin as much as I expected. I see a clear difference between SJ/Austin and those other three guys - when if you had asked me to rank them in order, I would have put Maclin in front of all of them. When I sat down and looked at that passing game, his career, things I expect...I have him below those guys on projections, but with a nice upside factor.Nicks has been there in mid/late third in most of my mocks as well. He led me to trade my 1.09 to move up to 1.06 and guarantee one of my clear top 6 players, and in exchange I dropped down from the 2nd to 3rd round - purely because some of these wideouts I love are guys I would take in the 2nd anyway, and will still be there in the mid third.

Thanks for the well thought out/well formatted post! I agree with you on Colston/Stevie J./Austin, although I don't think that I will be targeting Austin unless he is REALLY a value in my drafts. I have zero confidence in his hammy's holding up. I recently did my own mock of my main league, and I believe I have a very good chance of getting Colston as my #2 wideout in the late 5th/early 6th round(10-teamer start 2QB league). I believe that Colston is in line for his best season yet, with defenses no doubt being more focused on stopping Graham/Sproles. And Stevie J., not while being the most consitent guy week in and week out, should have quite a few big games when the shootouts commence.

Glad to see another person thinking like me on Colston - I have seen almost zero discussion of him all offseason, really flying under the radar.

 

[Modog814]

1. Hakeem Nicks is being overlooked - Projection: 81/1201/12

I was going through, making my projections, crafting them carefully, and at the end, I see that Nicks is standing out. The biggest reason is probably those 12 TDs...but they're actually in line with his career TD/rec% and fit within what I project Eli for, TD-wise. The yardage is nothing amazing, but still near the top of the league (I expect that to be a top 5-7 yardage number, though it would not have been last year). Nicks has a crazy low ADP for what I ended up having him at in my rankings. I would have taken Calvin, Fitz, AJ, Julio, Marshall, and a few others over Nicks, but:

Result: WR2. That's right, he ends up as my #2 overall wideout when it's all said and done. This is a guy it looks like I will have the pleasure of owning this year.

I've got him at WR2 as well. So totally agree.

2. I'm lower on Julio Jones than I thought I was - Projection: 75/1148/9

I have been all over the Falcons offense, subjectively, in my mocks and preparations this year. But when I actually sat down, looked at the numbers, and made a projection of what would happen...this is what I got. I could be low on the TDs, and it is possible that he has a higher ypr (I lowered it from what he had last year, I don't think that will be sustainable)...but it looks like I will actually not own Julio at all. Just a short week ago I thought I would own him most places, and month ago I thought I would ALWAYS have him.

Result: WR11 - exactly one spot above his teammate, Roddy White. This result is going to lead into my next observation:

It's getting kind of scary how similar our projections are. I've got him down for 69/1160/9, ranked 13th. He's got the ceiling to be a top 5 WR, top 2 even if things break his way, I just can't draft based on ceiling though. Too many assumptions are involved for those who think he'll make it to the next level. Improved Matt Ryan, Increased Passing, Move away from Turner, Julio dramatically increasing his targets, White slipping back a bit, Gonzalez slipping back a bit. It could all happen, but not willing to take that gamble at his price tag.

3. WRs are even closer together than everyone says.

My VBD results have Calvin at 60+, Nicks and Andre at 30+, and then six guys with 20-29, 2 guys at 18, and another 5 guys with 7-10 VBD. Calvin is far and away my #1 wideout, and I have him regressing a decent amount based on the unsustainability of Detroit's passing game last year as well as his TDs.

WR is definitely deep this year.

4. I love Marques Colston - Projection: 91/1274/8

Now, keep in mind that I project everyone for a full 16 games (except Mathews, Lynch types - suspended or already injured with a recovery timetable) because I think you can't predict injury. That being said: These numbers are surprisingly in line with Colston's typical targets and receptions per game, his career TD%, and his normal ypr. Meachem is gone, so I ended up giving him a little bit more on the targets side of things, but overall, these are less surprising than they first appear if you do some research (which I did when I found I had Colston in the top 10...)

Result: WR7 - Brees is literally the only QB with an extended history of throwing more than 620 times, for near/over 5000 yards. Colston is his top wideout, and with Meachem gone and none of the rookies looking healthy and able to step up, I think quite a few of the Saints players are undervalued. Lance Moore, Colston, Graham (even at his lofty ADP), and even Sproles.

Again, we're on the same page. I got him down for 87/1280/8. Good for WR6. I think people think that Bounty Gate is going to have a bigger impact than it will.

5. I have both Miles Austin and Steve Johnson in the top 20 WRs, and they are the only two of mine with an ADP round 5 or later. Austin is the only guy I see in the top 15 with a round 5+ ADP. Looks like a value play to me!

Long story short: Miles Austin, when he and Romo are healthy, has always played like a top 5 wideout. I'm actually knocking him down because of Dez's improvement in placing him at WR9 or so. With Witten's potential issues, Austin could be leaned on more than ever. There's a lot of upside there, especially at his ADP.

Johnson is consistent, a clear #1 target, and on a team that will have at least a couple shootouts with their schedule. I like him a lot as a WR2/3/flex

Finally, we kind of disagree on something. I've got Stevie as a top 10 WR (#8 to be exact). Got him down for 95/1240/6. Both Fitz and Johnson should be healthy and with FJax back in the mix, it should open some deeper plays up. I've got Austin just outside the top 20 (#21). I thought I'd be higher on him, but he seems to struggle with injuries and as a whole I"m kind of down on the Dallas passing game. The loss of Robinson will hurt more than most think and all 3 of Romo's top targets are now nursing some kind of injury.

 

[hotboyz]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

 

[Instinctive]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

 

[ShaHBucks]

 

[hotboyz]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

I see a perfect storm brewing for him returning to a system that made him the #1wr in FF just 2 yrs ago playing with arguably 1 of the best QB of our generation who is going back to a offense that saw him throw for 50 Td's in s offense where he will see 1 on 1 coverage exclusively if their online holds up this offense can be unreal!!!I think he can go 75/1500/15

 

[Instinctive]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

I see a perfect storm brewing for him returning to a system that made him the #1wr in FF just 2 yrs ago playing with arguably 1 of the best QB of our generation who is going back to a offense that saw him throw for 50 Td's in s offense where he will see 1 on 1 coverage exclusively if their online holds up this offense can be unreal!!!I think he can go 75/1500/15

Certainly possible. But I don't like to assume perfection.And of course, even in the 50 TD year, the deep threat (Moss) didn't also have two of the best receiving TEs in the league on the team. It was pretty much Moss/Welker and a bunch of stuff. Lloyd isn't as good as Moss was, the other players are much better...so it is possible.I just don't think it's likely. I've been wrong before, you have my reasoning, you can come to your own conclusion. I'm not here to tell you what to think, just to help you figure out what you think.

 

[Instinctive]

Thank you.Any thoughts jump out at you?

 

[hotboyz]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

I see a perfect storm brewing for him returning to a system that made him the #1wr in FF just 2 yrs ago playing with arguably 1 of the best QB of our generation who is going back to a offense that saw him throw for 50 Td's in s offense where he will see 1 on 1 coverage exclusively if their online holds up this offense can be unreal!!!I think he can go 75/1500/15

Certainly possible. But I don't like to assume perfection.And of course, even in the 50 TD year, the deep threat (Moss) didn't also have two of the best receiving TEs in the league on the team. It was pretty much Moss/Welker and a bunch of stuff. Lloyd isn't as good as Moss was, the other players are much better...so it is possible.I just don't think it's likely. I've been wrong before, you have my reasoning, you can come to your own conclusion. I'm not here to tell you what to think, just to help you figure out what you think.

I hear you but I believe when teams are extremely successful with something teams try to copy and d coordinators spend there offseason scheming to stop it. This yr I think d coordinators are gonna try to take Gronk and Hernandez away opening up the deep half of the field!

 

[Modog814]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

I see a perfect storm brewing for him returning to a system that made him the #1wr in FF just 2 yrs ago playing with arguably 1 of the best QB of our generation who is going back to a offense that saw him throw for 50 Td's in s offense where he will see 1 on 1 coverage exclusively if their online holds up this offense can be unreal!!!I think he can go 75/1500/15

Certainly possible. But I don't like to assume perfection.And of course, even in the 50 TD year, the deep threat (Moss) didn't also have two of the best receiving TEs in the league on the team. It was pretty much Moss/Welker and a bunch of stuff. Lloyd isn't as good as Moss was, the other players are much better...so it is possible.I just don't think it's likely. I've been wrong before, you have my reasoning, you can come to your own conclusion. I'm not here to tell you what to think, just to help you figure out what you think.

I hear you but I believe when teams are extremely successful with something teams try to copy and d coordinators spend there offseason scheming to stop it. This yr I think d coordinators are gonna try to take Gronk and Hernandez away opening up the deep half of the field!

Disagree with this. One, scheming to stop things is easier said than done. I haven't seen anyone come up with a scheme to stop Welker yet. Two, I'm not convinced the Pat O-Line will give Brady enough time often enough to hit Lloyd on deep plays anyway. And three, Defenses have already shown a tendency to prefer teams like New England to dink and dunk their way down the field as opposed to letting them "prove" that they can hit the deep pass. Right now the only way to stop teams like the Pats is get pressure on them, which like scheming is easier said than done. After that, you're best bet is to force them to run as many plays as possible and hope they make a mistake by throwing a pick or fumbling or dropping a pass or two.

 

[BlueDredSo]

I agree wih mostly everything you said, but I'm not nearly as high on Nicks (because of Cruz and injury risk), and I'm avoiding Cowboys at all costs this year. No thanks on Romo and Austin. I've been burned by them way too much in the past and won't have it this year. Your rankings in general are very respectable and I love reading the analysis. Stevie Johnson is going to have a big year and Julio Jones is being drastically over-rated.

 

[hines]

love posts like these, mirror what I generally go through when prepping for draft day. A guy who stood out to me when I looked at my projections (PPR) is Percy Harvin. he wasn't on the field as much as he could have been last year (won't play less this year, could play more), suffered through McNabb and Ponder as a rookie (should see better QB play this year) and AP's share of touches are likely to go down. all of that and he finished top 8-10 in most PPR systems. his rushing yards are a huge bonus, he might pick up 45-50 points this year if he scores 3 TDs. he is being drafted as WR13 in PPR leagues and has been barely mentioned in anything I've seen. He's a guy I will be targeting.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

I found I actually didn't like Maclin as much as I expected. I see a clear difference between SJ/Austin and those other three guys - when if you had asked me to rank them in order, I would have put Maclin in front of all of them. When I sat down and looked at that passing game, his career, things I expect...I have him below those guys on projections, but with a nice upside factor.

curious where you rank Desean then. would you say your opinion on Maclin is a statement more about Desean's success or more so about the passing game in general a la Vick? last year or two it feels like Philly throws a lot because they have to unlike Green Bay who throws a lot because they can, albeit their running game hasn't been much better than Philly's. My observation for the Philly receivers is that Vick favored Desean heavily in 2009 but in 2011 it was a much better split for Maclin and I expect that to continue. thoughts on that? great posts btw, all three of them. got one for tight ends?

 

[There it is]

Great work. Thanks for sharing.

 

[hotboyz]

What are your thoughts on Brandon Lloyd?

I have him at 63/1071/7That actually places him at WR27 on my list, but he's also got upside, so my draft ranking have him as a mid level WR2. I just only see so many balls to go around in NE. If something breaks his way, he could easily be a WR1. If nothing breaks his way, he could be an inconsistent flex play.I doubt I draft him, because I prefer less uncertainty in my picks. But there's a lot of potential for a big year there.

I see a perfect storm brewing for him returning to a system that made him the #1wr in FF just 2 yrs ago playing with arguably 1 of the best QB of our generation who is going back to a offense that saw him throw for 50 Td's in s offense where he will see 1 on 1 coverage exclusively if their online holds up this offense can be unreal!!!I think he can go 75/1500/15

Certainly possible. But I don't like to assume perfection.And of course, even in the 50 TD year, the deep threat (Moss) didn't also have two of the best receiving TEs in the league on the team. It was pretty much Moss/Welker and a bunch of stuff. Lloyd isn't as good as Moss was, the other players are much better...so it is possible.I just don't think it's likely. I've been wrong before, you have my reasoning, you can come to your own conclusion. I'm not here to tell you what to think, just to help you figure out what you think.

I hear you but I believe when teams are extremely successful with something teams try to copy and d coordinators spend there offseason scheming to stop it. This yr I think d coordinators are gonna try to take Gronk and Hernandez away opening up the deep half of the field!

Disagree with this. One, scheming to stop things is easier said than done. I haven't seen anyone come up with a scheme to stop Welker yet. Two, I'm not convinced the Pat O-Line will give Brady enough time often enough to hit Lloyd on deep plays anyway. And three, Defenses have already shown a tendency to prefer teams like New England to dink and dunk their way down the field as opposed to letting them "prove" that they can hit the deep pass. Right now the only way to stop teams like the Pats is get pressure on them, which like scheming is easier said than done. After that, you're best bet is to force them to run as many plays as possible and hope they make a mistake by throwing a pick or fumbling or dropping a pass or two.

I have to disagree with you here with the departure of MOSS the Pats have become a dink and dunk team that is why when the play teams like Pitt Baltimore giants you could just man up and press their receivers because they couldn't beat teams deep that's why Gronkowski became there weapon of choice so in the offseason they were determined to find somebody to stretch the field so now how are defenses gonna attack I believe until they prove they can beat u over the top teams will try to man up and double the TE once Lloyd hits them over the head what will they do? If they sit back in 2 deep or cover 4 Welker Hernandez and Gronk gonna murder them underneath if you defend the underneath Lloyd will hit them over the top! Brady set up for a monster season! I guess defenses will try to blitz but that can back fire they struggling against blitz in preseason because they are not game planning yet!