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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Mose
Footballguy
wouldn't this be good news for CENX?
Glencore May Have Bought Rusal Aluminum To Support Price-DR
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Glencore International AG is rumored to have contracted to purchase an estimated 500,000 tons to 900,000 tons of aluminum from Russian producer UC Rusal, the world's largest aluminum and alumina producer, said a Dahlman Rose research report.
The U.S. based investment bank said in the report that Glencore may be holding a large long position in the physical metal and could have purchased the metal to keep it off the spot market.
"We believe this is an important development as Asian customers have been told not to expect any metal from Rusal. We also feel the deal helps Glencore take the metal, which might have been "liquidated" by cash-strapped UC Rusal, off the market ," said the report.
A representative of Glencore's Singapore office declined to comment on the report while Rusal couldn't immediately be contacted.
The report noted that Rusal needs to restructure $7.3 billion in foreign loans by July 28.
London Metal Exchange data shows that one entity holds between 30% to 40% of the aluminum warrants on the exchange.
Japanese aluminum traders have reported that Rusal, which was a large supplier to the Japanese market, did not have metal available to sell in the recent third quarter term contract negotiations.
This enabled other global producersto negotiate higher premiums with Japanese consumers.
The third quarter premiums, which traditionally act as a benchmark for other industrial consumers in Asia, eventually settled at $75 over the cash LME price, up 30% from the second quarter.
"With the Chinese government buying the physical commodity, and with aluminum inventory tied up in financing deals, we are sensing that the aluminum market may be tighter than we originally perceived, especially in Asia," said the report.
Traders say more than half of LME stocks are unavailable due to warehousing and financing deals, a common practice that has become more prevalent due to tight credit conditions.
Typically, warehouses offer preferential storage rates in return for leaving a sizable chunk of material on-warrant for six to 12 months.
As long as the market stays in contango, traders are content to hold the metal in LME warehouses while rolling forward short futures positions and pocketing the difference between the higher futures price and the associated interest and storage costs.
Dahlman Rose said the tighter market conditions are positive for other global producers including Alcoa (AA) which it rates as hold, Century Aluminum (CENX) which it rates as buy and Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) which it rates as hold.
Glencore May Have Bought Rusal Aluminum To Support Price-DR
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Glencore International AG is rumored to have contracted to purchase an estimated 500,000 tons to 900,000 tons of aluminum from Russian producer UC Rusal, the world's largest aluminum and alumina producer, said a Dahlman Rose research report.
The U.S. based investment bank said in the report that Glencore may be holding a large long position in the physical metal and could have purchased the metal to keep it off the spot market.
"We believe this is an important development as Asian customers have been told not to expect any metal from Rusal. We also feel the deal helps Glencore take the metal, which might have been "liquidated" by cash-strapped UC Rusal, off the market ," said the report.
A representative of Glencore's Singapore office declined to comment on the report while Rusal couldn't immediately be contacted.
The report noted that Rusal needs to restructure $7.3 billion in foreign loans by July 28.
London Metal Exchange data shows that one entity holds between 30% to 40% of the aluminum warrants on the exchange.
Japanese aluminum traders have reported that Rusal, which was a large supplier to the Japanese market, did not have metal available to sell in the recent third quarter term contract negotiations.
This enabled other global producersto negotiate higher premiums with Japanese consumers.
The third quarter premiums, which traditionally act as a benchmark for other industrial consumers in Asia, eventually settled at $75 over the cash LME price, up 30% from the second quarter.
"With the Chinese government buying the physical commodity, and with aluminum inventory tied up in financing deals, we are sensing that the aluminum market may be tighter than we originally perceived, especially in Asia," said the report.
Traders say more than half of LME stocks are unavailable due to warehousing and financing deals, a common practice that has become more prevalent due to tight credit conditions.
Typically, warehouses offer preferential storage rates in return for leaving a sizable chunk of material on-warrant for six to 12 months.
As long as the market stays in contango, traders are content to hold the metal in LME warehouses while rolling forward short futures positions and pocketing the difference between the higher futures price and the associated interest and storage costs.
Dahlman Rose said the tighter market conditions are positive for other global producers including Alcoa (AA) which it rates as hold, Century Aluminum (CENX) which it rates as buy and Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) which it rates as hold.
David Dodds
Administrator
added another 2,000 FEED at $5.32...No idea what is going on here
David Dodds
Administrator
bloodbath is feeling about right. Upside down in everything and the stuff I like FEED and CENX are in free fall mode.
David Dodds
Administrator
OK I officially give up. Going to not look for a few days here. Will see everyone next week (hopefully I have still have some money left in the account). Come on HEB.
SecondCity34
Footballguy
That p.o.s. FAZ sniffing 5.20
:X
:X
Mose
Footballguy
I agree. I don't think you should keep buying and chasing. Just wait and see.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Wishing I would have waited about 10 more minutes before adding CENX and FEED this morning ...
I told myself these were long-ish plays (4-6 months), so I suppose I shouldn't get too caught up in these intraday swings.
Currently holding a mixed bag of PRGN, CENX, FEED, UNG ... and a small amount on HEB.
I told myself these were long-ish plays (4-6 months), so I suppose I shouldn't get too caught up in these intraday swings.
Currently holding a mixed bag of PRGN, CENX, FEED, UNG ... and a small amount on HEB.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I didnt know you could have your lawn repossessed.- Tea leoniNobody with any insight on STSI? I am enjoying watching from the sidelines, but feel I might be missing out on something
Of course the indices have barely moved, it's the small caps that are getting roasted.
I still believe long-term in all the stocks I'm long on so it's probably about time I logged off and just didn't look at things for a few days. Wish I had some cash on the sidelines to put to use, but I probably would have just bought in yesterday or on Monday or Friday, etc.
I still believe long-term in all the stocks I'm long on so it's probably about time I logged off and just didn't look at things for a few days. Wish I had some cash on the sidelines to put to use, but I probably would have just bought in yesterday or on Monday or Friday, etc.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am probably going to dump my UNG position here soon and take the loss. So many deals like PRGN, FEED, etc that I would rather have my money in. I stupidly did not pull the trigger at UNG = 5.63 and now need a rally to get back close to that.
As I type this, UNG is on the rise...will dump very soon to free up cash
As I type this, UNG is on the rise...will dump very soon to free up cash
David Dodds
Administrator
Dumped 5,000 UNG at 15.53....AAArgh...but I think this is the best of a BAD situation.
Lost .46/share = -$2,324
but this frees up a lot of buying power for me at these fire sale prices
Lost .46/share = -$2,324
but this frees up a lot of buying power for me at these fire sale prices
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
no ####I sold too early. Again.Time to play FAS...FAZ up almost 20% on the week....
David Dodds
Administrator
added 5,000 FEED at 5.25
added 3,000 CENX at 6.23
Added 5,000 PRGN at 4.07
Hopefully these are close to bottoms. Buying and holding here. Not looking to add more into this mess.
added 3,000 CENX at 6.23
Added 5,000 PRGN at 4.07
Hopefully these are close to bottoms. Buying and holding here. Not looking to add more into this mess.
David Dodds
Administrator
good luck everyone. Hopefully I have a brokerage account when I get back from my trip.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Bought 1,064 GKK @ $1.74999
Easy money at this price.
Will sell in the low $2's for 20% gain.
Easy money at this price.
Will sell in the low $2's for 20% gain.
siffoin
Footballguy
Not that anyone is asking for advice...but I just want to pass along some of the things I learned the hard way.
Professional traders/trading firms have an advantage over us. Enough financial backing to move markets; super fast computers and software designed to sniff out any inefficiency and capitalize on it; paid pumpers who lobby the public; etc; etc; etc.
But we have one advantage over them...and that is on any given day we do not have to trade. In moments when the market is deciding which way it is going to trend...we can step aside and wait for that indecision to resolve. We are in one of those periods right now.
The SP500 has most definitely broken below the bullish channel since March, but there is NO CONFIRMATION the bear market has resumed either. See what happens first:
Does the SP500 regain 925 or does it break below 900? That will be the first indication on whether we resume the bull trend or begin a new bear trend.
Trading is the specific market environment of indecision is where you can do some serious damage to your portfolio. Mainly because you wind up trading on emotion...not rational.
Professional traders/trading firms have an advantage over us. Enough financial backing to move markets; super fast computers and software designed to sniff out any inefficiency and capitalize on it; paid pumpers who lobby the public; etc; etc; etc.
But we have one advantage over them...and that is on any given day we do not have to trade. In moments when the market is deciding which way it is going to trend...we can step aside and wait for that indecision to resolve. We are in one of those periods right now.
The SP500 has most definitely broken below the bullish channel since March, but there is NO CONFIRMATION the bear market has resumed either. See what happens first:
Does the SP500 regain 925 or does it break below 900? That will be the first indication on whether we resume the bull trend or begin a new bear trend.
Trading is the specific market environment of indecision is where you can do some serious damage to your portfolio. Mainly because you wind up trading on emotion...not rational.
David Dodds
Administrator
Buy into the FEAR is the answer here I think. McClellan Oscillator thinks the over-correction has happened. It may still drop some more, but we are nearing the bottom. I think companies like FEED, PRGN will rebound nicely once the market comes back.
Well excluding the KERX and HEB that I own he may be right.By the way, my buddy has been predicting that when this correction hits, healthcare/pharma is the place to be. Right now that's the only sector up on the day...
Mose
Footballguy
Why the hate on PRGN?
Mose
Footballguy
Well excluding the KERX and HEB that I own he may be right.By the way, my buddy has been predicting that when this correction hits, healthcare/pharma is the place to be. Right now that's the only sector up on the day...
Horse hockeyNot that anyone is asking for advice...but I just want to pass along some of the things I learned the hard way.Professional traders/trading firms have an advantage over us. Enough financial backing to move markets; super fast computers and software designed to sniff out any inefficiency and capitalize on it; paid pumpers who lobby the public; etc; etc; etc.But we have one advantage over them...and that is on any given day we do not have to trade. In moments when the market is deciding which way it is going to trend...we can step aside and wait for that indecision to resolve. We are in one of those periods right now.The SP500 has most definitely broken below the bullish channel since March, but there is NO CONFIRMATION the bear market has resumed either. See what happens firstoes the SP500 regain 925 or does it break below 900? That will be the first indication on whether we resume the bull trend or begin a new bear trend.Trading is the specific market environment of indecision is where you can do some serious damage to your portfolio. Mainly because you wind up trading on emotion...not rational.
I not 
No need to 
when 
FAZ is available to go all in on. 
Actually I'm pretty comfortable with all my positions except for KERX and HEB which represent < 5% of my holdings. Rather than selling and chasing bargains, I'll just sit tight like you suggest and look to add some FAS if we get a huge correction.
David Dodds
Administrator
I seriously doubt it on both levels. I will be shocked to see PRGN slide below $4 / share. Below that level they become a major take-over candidate.When I come back, hopefully my option account will be ready to go. I think that's how to play this huge over-correction.
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ODoyleRules
Footballguy
Only saving grace for today is the fact that I dumped ATPG at 8.3 on Monday. I took a loss on this and while that's never fun, it's sometimes best to take your lumps and move on.
Holding OIL, VLO and PRGN.
Holding OIL, VLO and PRGN.
The Ref
Footballguy
Interesting article I have only considered on an individual security basis before. I am concerned about USD Inflation, but never stopped to think about overall "share inflation".
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/articl...set=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/articl...set=&ccode=
I like this post.Not that anyone is asking for advice...but I just want to pass along some of the things I learned the hard way.Professional traders/trading firms have an advantage over us. Enough financial backing to move markets; super fast computers and software designed to sniff out any inefficiency and capitalize on it; paid pumpers who lobby the public; etc; etc; etc.But we have one advantage over them...and that is on any given day we do not have to trade. In moments when the market is deciding which way it is going to trend...we can step aside and wait for that indecision to resolve. We are in one of those periods right now.The SP500 has most definitely broken below the bullish channel since March, but there is NO CONFIRMATION the bear market has resumed either. See what happens first
