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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)

bigfishboy said:
itriple said:
Back in PRGN 5000 shares at $4.35. :ph34r: Im hoping that any possible bad news that people got out of their best quarter ever is priced in. Who the H knows though.
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Every thing seemed OK until the jerk mentioned the D-word.And even that doesn't seem like all bad news. They seem to be leaking the shares in slowly, while this may hold the price back a bit, I don't see the need for a 5% loss. As I said above, I expected a 5% loss on a missed earnings report. I don't see the dilution as that bad. I expect 4.35 is a great entry.Now we just have to see if this creeps back towards 4.80 or it loses .15 a day like when the dilution announcement was first made.
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During Q&A someone asked how far along the 2nd 10 million dilution was. He said it is very advanced. Hopefully in Greek that means "Almost the F-ck over"
 
These shippers are bad news. They have good fundamentals on a per share basis, and then voila, they sneak more shares out there, making all the per share ratio data worthless. You think you're buying a stock with a P/E of 4.0, but in reality it just became a 7.0 P/E. These shippers don't give a rat's ### about their shareholders.

Maybe down the road these stocks will once again be worthwhile, but it's tough to do your homework, thoroughly examine the fundamentals and then have someone throw you a sinkerball.

I've been buying Terra Industries (TRA), Joy Global (JOYG), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Netease.com (NTES) & American Dairy (ADY). I jump in and out. A couple of others I have small positions in are Innophos Holdings (IPHS), Alcon (ACL), Alcoa (AA) & Fuqi International (FUQI). All have great fundamentals, and quite a few are in great technical stages.

 
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Apu said:
What's the latest with HEB?
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Sounds to me like the Ampligen NDA is going to be gathering dust for a while.Not a surprise considering Hemispheryx's history.

I'm amazed the price has held above $2 after the 10Q.

From 8/10/2009 HEB 10Q

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946...156832_10-q.htm

On September 19, 2008, we executed an agreement with Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute in Albuquerque, New Mexico to perform certain animal toxic studies in support of our Ampligen® NDA. These studies were requested by the FDA and will be done in collaboration with the resources of the New Brunswick facility. These studies have been substantially completed with summary reports expected to be issued to the FDA during the third quarter of 2009. Data for final FDA reports are presently undergoing internal auditing at Lovelace and Hemispherx with a projected completion of the final report for late 2009 to early 2010.

 
if you're a TD Ameritrade user, they've integrated the ThinkorSwim platform as of today. I'm just getting a feel for it, but it looks pretty impressive so far.

 
Mose said:
dumped my sBLk I bought yesterday at $3.19....BOOOOO
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I got out at 3.20. I'm OK with it. Bought at 3.50 but I banked some gains off SBLK in the past two weeks so I really only lost $50 on the stock.
 
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Wow, I'm pissed. I'm on dial-up because my freaking cable modem is on the fritz. The cable company has someone coming out to put in a new modem tonight. It went out Tuesday night, then hurt me yesterday in trying to get out of PRGN. Now I tried to get into Palm today. I was trying to put in a buy at 12.48 two minutes before the market opened. By the time I finally got it through, the stock had already started at 12.48, went down to 12.36 and back up to 12.77. Time Warner better be giving me a free month.

 
Just standing pat right now with the following (cost in parens):

PRGN (4.35)

KERX (1.14)

FREE (1.85)

PGNE(.049)

I might dump FREE if it ever moves back up above 1.85 just to reduce my interest in shippers.

I'm probably missing out on just trading KERX but I'm worried that I would miss out on big news which is really what KERX is dependent on.

I really like PGNE and am holding for the foreseeable future. Their third well has reached target depth and test results for that should be out soon. They already have plans for a fourth well. This has been a nice steady run up for the last month.

 
Gadfly said:
Wow, I'm pissed. I'm on dial-up because my freaking cable modem is on the fritz. The cable company has someone coming out to put in a new modem tonight. It went out Tuesday night, then hurt me yesterday in trying to get out of PRGN. Now I tried to get into Palm today. I was trying to put in a buy at 12.48 two minutes before the market opened. By the time I finally got it through, the stock had already started at 12.48, went down to 12.36 and back up to 12.77. Time Warner better be giving me a free month.
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I bought the SEPT. 12 calls this morning. Looking at the options numbers, someone came in with a large play on the sept. 17 calls. Looks like they offset a portion of that with the sept. 12 puts. I haven't been able to pull the trigger on much lately(besides selling) but i like this one quite a bit.
 
optionmaven said:
Gadfly said:
Wow, I'm pissed. I'm on dial-up because my freaking cable modem is on the fritz. The cable company has someone coming out to put in a new modem tonight. It went out Tuesday night, then hurt me yesterday in trying to get out of PRGN. Now I tried to get into Palm today. I was trying to put in a buy at 12.48 two minutes before the market opened. By the time I finally got it through, the stock had already started at 12.48, went down to 12.36 and back up to 12.77. Time Warner better be giving me a free month.
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I bought the SEPT. 12 calls this morning. Looking at the options numbers, someone came in with a large play on the sept. 17 calls. Looks like they offset a portion of that with the sept. 12 puts. I haven't been able to pull the trigger on much lately(besides selling) but i like this one quite a bit.
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I've started getting into option plays. I sold naked August 40 calls on AIG on Monday and took in a .70 premium per contract. The stock is 25 now. It's like money in the bank already.
 
Joe Mammy said:
Barclays just added almost 5 million shares of HEB to their fund.

I just added another 1000 myself.

LINK
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This means very little, as they were buying HEB because it was added to the Russell 2000. Barclays bought such a large amount because they have the largest ETF.
 
Well I'm kind of at a cross roads here. I'm out of the shipers altogether and have small posistions and riased a lot of cash. I have a small stake in Rio Tinto (a steal for 30 shares at $151), as a well as s underwater posisiton in FEED 1,000 shares at $6.03. I also have my free 500 shares of HEB.

So what's next? Anyone looking into anything for 3Q/4Q? The medium term plan was to get into a more commodity focused basket.

Nat Gas Play? UPL

Real goods? RTP or AUY

Agriculture? FEED MOO

 
This has been a painful month for virtually everything I have touched. Today saved my butt bigtime though as I had acquired these positions:

25,000 HEB at 2.09 - dipped in the 1.90s

85,000 FREE at 1.83 - dipped in the 1.70s

and both were taking on water all week.

I was able to get out of HEB unscathed selling 10,000 at 2.05, 5,000 at 2.10 and another 5,000 at 2.15. I am going to hold my last 5,000 shares until real news. Although at these levels, I think it's a decent play because of days like this. But the fact that dilution will happen in September and I see nothing that says approval is imminent, I have chosen to stay out of this thing for a bit. I may buy some shares if it gets under $2.00 again only because these market makers like to move it from 1.95 to 2.15 or so.

I was really beginning to hate my FREE position as the shippers are tanking based on the BDI and bad earnings reports. I was able to move a lot of shares today though dumping 20,000 at 1.80, 10,000 at 1.82 and another 10,000 at 1.84. I still hold 45,000 shares, but not nearly as worried today as I have a few weeks before earnings get released. I definitely will sell all of these shares before they report.

So basically floundered all month here in these issues, but managed to get the hugest of saves today. And I took the save. Being mostly in cash right now when I have limited time to even look at the market (website, getting kid ready for school) seems right for me. I probably will take a position in FCG soon here (the better Natural Gas play in my opinion as it does not get crushed by the contango). That seems like a safe play through Winter.

 
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David Dodds said:
This has been a painful month for virtually everything I have touched. Today saved my butt bigtime though as I had acquired these positions:25,000 HEB at 2.09 - dipped in the 1.90s85,000 FREE at 1.83 - dipped in the 1.70sand both were taking on water all week. I was able to get out of HEB unscathed selling 10,000 at 2.05, 5,000 at 2.10 and the last 5,000 at 2.15. Although at these levels, I think it's a decent play because of days like this. But the fact that dilution will happen in September and I see nothing that says approval is imminent, I have chosen to stay out of this thing for a bit. I may buy some shares if it gets under $2.00 again only because these market majers like to move it from 1.95 to 2.15 or so.I was really beginning to hate my FREE position as the shippers are tanking based on the BDI and bad earnings reports. I was able to move a lot of shares today though dumping 20,000 at 1.80, 10,000 at 1.82 and another 10,000 at 1.84. I still hold 45,000 shares, but not nearly as worried today as I have a few weeks before earnings get released. I definitely will sell all of these shares before they report.So basically floundered all month here in these issues, but managed to get the hugest of saves today. And I took the save. Being mostly in cash right now when I have limited time to even look at the market (website, getting kid ready for school) seems right for me. I probably will take a position in FCG soon here (the better Natural Gas play in my opinion as it does not get crushed by the contango). That seems like a safe play through Winter.
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Agree that the last week for FREE has been concerning. I've got 13K shares at average of 1.815Looking to exit if it hits the 1.90s
 
Went ahead and dumped my 400 shares of SBLK for 3.25 (loss of $160).

Still holding tight to my 4300 PRGN (~3.95 basis) and 1320 FREE (~1.85 basis).

May add some more FREE later, but am revisiting how long I want to hold these positions ... may stick with PRGN longer through EOY as I think these guys are doing things right ...

 
Otis said:
I like UNG here for a g00d 10% runup. Look at the trading channel.
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But if UNG goes up, isn't FCG the better situation? UNG fights with the contango every month as they roll their contracts. FCG invests in Natural Gas companies. Look at the last few months of charts and you will see exactly what I am talking about. I agree that Natural Gas will raise in price through the Winter. I just think FCG is the way to best benefit from this.
 
David Dodds said:
Otis said:
I like UNG here for a g00d 10% runup. Look at the trading channel.
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But if UNG goes up, isn't FCG the better situation? UNG fights with the contango every month as they roll their contracts. FCG invests in Natural Gas companies. Look at the last few months of charts and you will see exactly what I am talking about. I agree that Natural Gas will raise in price through the Winter. I just think FCG is the way to best benefit from this.
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Fair point DD, and per my stock buddy who is a huge natty gas nerd, his response is:"Not bad but I'd rather own the best in breed for the producers than the entire groupCHK, XTO, probably anadarko, etc."
 
Otis said:
David Dodds said:
Otis said:
I like UNG here for a g00d 10% runup. Look at the trading channel.
Click to expand...
But if UNG goes up, isn't FCG the better situation? UNG fights with the contango every month as they roll their contracts. FCG invests in Natural Gas companies. Look at the last few months of charts and you will see exactly what I am talking about. I agree that Natural Gas will raise in price through the Winter. I just think FCG is the way to best benefit from this.
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Fair point DD, and per my stock buddy who is a huge natty gas nerd, his response is:"Not bad but I'd rather own the best in breed for the producers than the entire groupCHK, XTO, probably anadarko, etc."
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I thought we've been down this path and lost.
 
This 50% rally from the March lows has been very impressive but I wouldn't bet the farm we are entering a bull market just yet. I can make an argument that the market will continue this rally and I can also make an argument that we could retrace half of this rally. I tend to think the latter will prevail but I hope I am wrong. Consider these statistics:

1 in 4 Americans are upside down on their mortgage
1 in 6 are either unemployed or underemployed
1 in every 7 housing units in the US are vacantReasons to be positive on the market are that over 75% of companies beat their earnings projections, although be it with aggressive cost cutting measures that can't continue. The average length of time a house is on the market has shortened recently. There is also a lot of cash on the sidelines still so the possibility of people buying on the dips is out there. Investor sentiment is definately bullish right now. That is evident when bad economic news is brushed off and and hint of good news sends the market straight up. Yesterday the Fed came out and said the economy is "leveling out", investors were excited and the market went up over 100 points. Leveling off implies a a level GDP, much lower than the 4% annual GDP growth the market is currently pricing in.

I think investment grade corporate bonds are more attractive than equities right now. They have outpaced equities YTD as well. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

 
Don said:
This 50% rally from the March lows has been very impressive but I wouldn't bet the farm we are entering a bull market just yet. I can make an argument that the market will continue this rally and I can also make an argument that we could retrace half of this rally. I tend to think the latter will prevail but I hope I am wrong. Consider these statistics:

1 in 4 Americans are upside down on their mortgage
1 in 6 are either unemployed or underemployed
1 in every 7 housing units in the US are vacantReasons to be positive on the market are that over 75% of companies beat their earnings projections, although be it with aggressive cost cutting measures that can't continue. The average length of time a house is on the market has shortened recently. There is also a lot of cash on the sidelines still so the possibility of people buying on the dips is out there. Investor sentiment is definately bullish right now. That is evident when bad economic news is brushed off and and hint of good news sends the market straight up. Yesterday the Fed came out and said the economy is "leveling out", investors were excited and the market went up over 100 points. Leveling off implies a a level GDP, much lower than the 4% annual GDP growth the market is currently pricing in.

I think investment grade corporate bonds are more attractive than equities right now. They have outpaced equities YTD as well. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
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I've been planning for years on a W recovery. (not dubya but double bottom). We've been thru phase 1 of the banking crisis. Phase 2 should be a commercial loan crisis. I would keep an eye on commercial loan delinquencies. I think if we have another crisis, that is where the epicenter will be.http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/finance/20...encies_rise.htm

Commercial-Loan Delinquencies Rise

July 31, 2009

Emmet Pierce

Raising concerns that a new wave of real estate foreclosures is building, an industry survey released yesterday shows that the mortgage delinquency rate among commercial properties in California has more than doubled in the past three months.

http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/sto...0/daily104.html

Friday, July 24, 2009

Commercial mortgage delinquency up 585%

Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal - by Katherine Conrad

Delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities soared $10 billion in June, hitting a 12-month high of almost $29 billion, according to Realpoint Research.

California led the nation with the highest amount of delinquent loans, closely followed by Texas and Florida.

The jump in late loans across the country is up an “astounding” 585 percent from a year ago when just $4 billion were delinquent, reported the Horsham, Penn.-based research firm. The low point for delinquency was March 2007 when $2 billion was delinquent.

http://www.cpexecutive.com/cpn/finance/Fit...h-Rate-1300.htm

Fitch Ratings: Large Hotels Defaulting on Loans at High Rate

Aug 05, 2009

By: Tonie Auer, Contributing Correspondent

As the commercial real estate market continues its downward decline, a new Fitch Ratings report indicates that large hotels lead loans of concern for U.S. CMBS with eight newly defaulted loans greater than $100 million entering special servicing, according to Fitch’s 'What's in Special Servicing' U.S. CMBS report.

Recent defaults include two hotel portfolios: Red Roof Inn and Extended Stay. Since Fitch's last update in April, $17.4 billion in Fitch-rated loans have entered special servicing, which does not include the Extended Stay Portfolio, which on its own totals more than $4 billion.

One troubling aspect discovered in the report is that four of the 10 largest delinquent loans have experienced appraisal reductions as a result of value declines, indicating that losses may be significant in their respective deals, said managing director Mary MacNeill. Of more than 2,000 specially serviced loans, 64 have balances are in excess of $100 million.

“Loss severities will vary on these loans, but due to the large size of the loans, losses on loans greater than $100 million could potentially have a significant impact on their transactions,” MacNeill told CPN.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/deuts...-loan-defaults/

Deutsche Bank: Construction Loan Defaults Coming

By Barry Ritholtz - August 5th, 2009, 12:21PM

Interesting piece from Deutsche Bank on rapidly deteriorating Construction loans. DB predicts that “construction loans will be the epicenter of bank loan problems”

 
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JaxBill said:
Just standing pat right now with the following (cost in parens):PRGN (4.35)KERX (1.14)FREE (1.85)PGNE(.049)I might dump FREE if it ever moves back up above 1.85 just to reduce my interest in shippers.I'm probably missing out on just trading KERX but I'm worried that I would miss out on big news which is really what KERX is dependent on.I really like PGNE and am holding for the foreseeable future. Their third well has reached target depth and test results for that should be out soon. They already have plans for a fourth well. This has been a nice steady run up for the last month.
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PGNE with a big leap up today to .25Might have to think about selling a little more.
 
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