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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

Sold 15,000 shares of DXO at 2.63 (wow what a comeback). Still holding 15,000 shares at $2.61. Looking for a better spot to re-enter here (hated having so much of my portfolio trapped in this). Profit on those 15,000 shares = $300 - 18 = $282

 
***This is not a recommendation***

I think there is a good probability (greater than 50%) that FAS will make a run at the end of the day. This is based a little on the Geithner news today, and a lot on the appearance of the chart today and past research on how this typically moves.

I need 8.08 to get 10% out of the buys I made yesterday. Not sure it will get that high, but I am hopeful. I may take a little less as I think FAS will grind lower over the short term.

***I suggest you run from anything I say***

 
bigfishboy said:
***This is not a recommendation***I think there is a good probability (greater than 50%) that FAS will make a run at the end of the day. This is based a little on the Geithner news today, and a lot on the appearance of the chart today and past research on how this typically moves.I need 8.08 to get 10% out of the buys I made yesterday. Not sure it will get that high, but I am hopeful. I may take a little less as I think FAS will grind lower over the short term.***I suggest you run from anything I say***
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I need one of those 30% gainers in it. Record volume today. Unreal, 400 Mil. shares. FAZ with 300 mil. Something huge is gonna happen one way or the other.
 
Interesting dynamic going on in oil as the Contango tightens up.

Front end Oil is up today, while back end oil is down.

CLK09.NYM Crude Oil May 09 - 47.20 (+2.88%)

CLM09.NYM Crude Oil Jun 09 - 48.67 (+0.33%)

CLN09.NYM Crude Oil Jul 09 - 50.75 (-0.04%)

CLQ09.NYM Crude Oil Aug 09 - 52.35 (-0.15%)

CLU09.NYM Crude Oil Sep 09 - 53.60 (-0.09%)

CLV09.NYM Crude Oil Oct 09 - 54.52 (-0.29%)

 
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Buckna said:
Of course, I've got a paper gain of $1,950 on FEED today, I should not be complaining. :lmao:
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Please tell me you are still holding FEED.There are 40,000 sell orders between 4.18 and 4.25 and less than 3000 between 4.13 and 4.17...this could push 4.20 by the end today.ETA - OMG there is 1 share for sale at 4.14
 
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analog_hiss said:
Buckna said:
Of course, I've got a paper gain of $1,950 on FEED today, I should not be complaining. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Please tell me you are still holding FEED.There are 40,000 sell orders between 4.18 and 4.25 and less than 3000 between 4.13 and 4.17...this could push 4.20 by the end today.
Click to expand...
Sitting on my shares. Have a feeling this stock could easily see $5 in a few months. Maybe even higher as it seems to be every momentum players dream right now.
 
Buckna said:
analog_hiss said:
Buckna said:
Of course, I've got a paper gain of $1,950 on FEED today, I should not be complaining. :banned:
Click to expand...
Please tell me you are still holding FEED.There are 40,000 sell orders between 4.18 and 4.25 and less than 3000 between 4.13 and 4.17...this could push 4.20 by the end today.
Click to expand...
Sitting on my shares. Have a feeling this stock could easily see $5 in a few months. Maybe even higher as it seems to be every momentum players dream right now.
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Looks like 4.15-16 is the close.ETA - well, got that wrong....after market should be interesting.GLTY :thumbup:
 
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FavreCo said:
bigfishboy said:
***This is not a recommendation***I think there is a good probability (greater than 50%) that FAS will make a run at the end of the day. This is based a little on the Geithner news today, and a lot on the appearance of the chart today and past research on how this typically moves.I need 8.08 to get 10% out of the buys I made yesterday. Not sure it will get that high, but I am hopeful. I may take a little less as I think FAS will grind lower over the short term.***I suggest you run from anything I say***
Click to expand...
I need one of those 30% gainers in it. Record volume today. Unreal, 400 Mil. shares. FAZ with 300 mil. Something huge is gonna happen one way or the other.
Click to expand...
Not really what I hoped for, call it a mini-run. downswing between 3:15 and 3:30 sucked. Anyway, I sold half my stake at the bell for 7.75. A gain of 5% total from yesterdays buys. I will take it as I am scared of bank stock news right now. if I am wrong I still have 1/3 of my stack in it.
 
Been busy with a couple of projects to surprise the wife while she's away for work (painting the laundry room and bathroom, plumber coming tomorrow to install one of these I picked up locally from a classified add posting for our clawfoot tub).

Yesterday I made an error posting my purchase of 1000 SAY, it was actually 700. This morning I grabbed 500 FREE @ 1.35, and 1000 GPRE @ 2.00.

If you go back to, you'll see I bought GPRE @ 1.70 and sold @3.15. This is a stock I have been following via some techinals I am trying to use to build some acumen for future quick trading. I would have loved to see the RSI drop a little bit more, but a double cross occurred between the MACD and the Stochastic, so I am testing the technical indicators to see if this goes up. Volume in GPRE is extremely low, so I am hoping that any major drops will be slow.

While on timeout, I also purchased 3000 SPSN @ 0.19. This company has huge debt, faces delisting, and filed for Chapter 11 protection. However, they recently settled a patent protection lawsuit with Samsung for $70 million and others could follow. Also, Spansion has introduced a new product that could revolutionize the capacity of internet servers. Lots of rumors are swirling about a buyout, especially with MU supposedly raising capital to expand. This is a long shot bet (just as my bet on NEOM), so I set a stop loss at 0.10...which would cost me about $300.

I am copying Dodds' reporting on holdings just to keep things neat:

Year to Date Profit = $1,720

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: No sales

Holding these positions (close today):

700 SAY @ 1.88 (1.95)

500 FREE @ 1.35 (1.43)

1000 GPRE @ 2.00 (2.00)

3000 SPSN @ 0.19 (0.17)

10000 NEOM @ 0.027 (0.024)

 
Year to Date Profit = $51,811

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +3,046

SBLK +308

EXM +2456

DXO + 282

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

15,000 DXO @ 2.61 - Currently at 2.61

2,000 UCO @ 7.51 - Currently at 7.24

Today started off tough with oil WAY DOWN. I was able to cost average DXO to a respectable level and pickup EXM super cheap at that time. I sold half of my DXO position for a small profit as I await the inventory report. If oil goes way lower, that will be where I put my money in tomorrow. Mostly cash again, but a lot of active trading on Monday and Tuesday could limit a lot of activity at the the end of this week.

 
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David Dodds said:
bd3521 said:
Whats a good entry point for some FEED?
Click to expand...
Last month....hahaha. Who knows going forward. This thing has been a rocketship for about a month after their earning report.
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Yeah, this thing swings big throughout the day so there are intraday lows that are good entry points if you want to daytrade. I'm not a proficient enough technical trader to give much advice about a solid entry point, just have gotten lucky watching the swings. (The 3,000 shares at $3.00 yesterday was mighty nice.) It helps that I am at a computer all day long and can watch the movement.I doubt I will buy any more as I am at 6,000 shares now, but never say never.
 
bd3521 said:
Whats a good entry point for some FEED?
Click to expand...
Now, because I see it going into double digits.However, I am a chicken#### that sold at a set limit of 3.05 and I refuse to buy at a higher price than I sold. I could be wrong, but I believe FEED will report 1Q earnings mid May (I've read 05/15), so I hope that scares some profit takers off and I can re-enter at a price lower than $4.

This company grew strong until last fall, but made some crappy moves and scared investors off...first they said they were going to do a reverse split then they said said they were going to offer new shares....check the news, cause NASDAQ didn't like it and has threatened delisting...they have until the June shareholders meeting to secure a vote on shares.

So you may have a couple opportunities in the next couple of months. Then again...the technicals I am looking at say this will advance for a day or two and retreat (watch this stock closely Buckna, I want to see folks make some money).

ETA - Wait till the price drops...I am trying to get a read on Hog prices in China which is difficult.

 
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U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly fell by 1 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday, a surprise drop after analysts expected a 2.6 million barrel stock build. Refinery utilization rose more than expected, to 82.1 percent of installed capacity, above expectations of 81.1 percent.

(((((((( My Take )))))))

Front end oil was trading at $50-$52 all week and at this price, the refinery percentage was up AND stockpiles dropped. So why would oil now be worth just $46/barrel when obviously the economy supported $50-52 just fine? Summer is coming soon and that's always the peak of oil consumption. With the dollar also down today (oil is a great hedge the dollar and generally benefits when it drops) and the market up, this report is all that's needed to prop oil back up. The official EIA report will come out at 10:30am ET Wednesday, but if it looks anything like this, oil related stocks should head considerably higher.

 
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Buckna said:
David Dodds said:
bd3521 said:
Whats a good entry point for some FEED?
Click to expand...
Last month....hahaha. Who knows going forward. This thing has been a rocketship for about a month after their earning report.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this thing swings big throughout the day so there are intraday lows that are good entry points if you want to daytrade. I'm not a proficient enough technical trader to give much advice about a solid entry point, just have gotten lucky watching the swings. (The 3,000 shares at $3.00 yesterday was mighty nice.) It helps that I am at a computer all day long and can watch the movement.I doubt I will buy any more as I am at 6,000 shares now, but never say never.
Click to expand...
I just wanted to add this chart to demonstrate why I believe the price could fall in the next day or two.The top chart is the RSI - Relative Strength Index. RSI is a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. Anything above 70 indicates the stock might be overbought (sell), and anything under 30 indicates the stock might be oversold (buy). In early March, the RSI dipped below 30, and if you notice that also coincides with the lowest price of the stock. Now look when the RSI goes over 70 as the price per share increased, dipped down, then climbed back up. While RSI can be a great indicater, from what I have been reading, one should never use it alone...I have been trying to use the MACD along with it.

The bottom chart is the MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The MACD is another momentum indicator that attempts to show the relationship between two moving averages of prices: the 26 day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12 day EMA. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. Furthermore, a 9 day EMA of the MACD (called the signal line) is plotted on top of the MACD and functions as a trigger for buy and sell signals.

There are 3 ways to look at the MACD, but let's focus on just two: crossovers and divergence. When looking at the FEED chart , notice the times when the black line (12 day EMA) crosses over the red line (26 day EMA)...a day or two later the stock increases. As they grow further apart (diverge) the price jumps dramatically, and as the black line approaches the red line, the price falls slightly. A large divergence indicates the stock is overbought (time to sell) and as the grow closer, the stock is oversold (time to buy).

With the RSI over 70 and the MACD diverging again, FEED is definitely approaching overbought territory...keep an eye on it and good luck!

Remember, I set a stop loss at 3.05 (which was entirely too high, lesson learned) on the night before the 20th just as the 12 day EMA was showing signs of declining from the end of last week...the crossover hadn't happened but the EMA's were approaching each other. I didn't truly follow the indicators and missed out on 1.07 advance.

 
OK, I have no idea why oil is cheaper so I am jumping in pre-report. Bought 2,000 UCO at 7.05 and 10,000 DXO at 2.53.

Here's to oil

 
David Dodds said:
OK, I have no idea why oil is cheaper so I am jumping in pre-report. Bought 2,000 UCO at 7.05 and 10,000 DXO at 2.53.Here's to oil
Click to expand...
Oil in the $48 range (up a couple of dollars) and DXO hasn't moved. Basically summer oil is trading at much of a premium compared to this month's oil. Guess no one is going on vacation???? Shouldn't DXO be in the $2.80s right now?
 
Haven't posted about it before but one of my few longterm holdings that survived the crash is BWLD.

Stock is up 10% today after a 5% gain yesterday. Can't find any news what so ever out there other than Oppenheimer initiated coverage at Outperform which you wouldn't think would move the stock this much. Earnings Announcement is scheduled for Tuesday, April 28th. Despite being a restaurant stock and in the middle of a recession (I love the place, ate there yesterday) they've been blowing away earnings and same store sales.

 
Mose said:
David, are you selling if DXO gets back to your purchase price?
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I really think oil is headed up in the very near term. We needed a good inventory report and had false hope after a great API report (only to be shot down with the official EIA report). I am also convinced that if oil drops much lower that OPEC will cut production in May (or at least announce they are cutting production) because the Summer months are when demand is generally the highest. And they desperately want to push oil to around $60/barrel for late June/July/August timeframe to maximize profits for their governments.I will be adding to my already deep position today. Had the free fall not went from 2.61 to 2.53 for DXO so fast, I probably would have sold and bought back in cheaper. Now I just plan to hold.
 
Now Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

35,000 DXO @ 2.56

4,000 UCO @ 7.28

Not worried in the slightest here either

 
I'm surprised the oil market shrugged off Mexico's huge 7.8 output decline. At this rate it is only going to take a few years before they won't have much left to export. Their big field, Canterel, is dying fast.

 
I'm a glutton for punishment. Added:

2,000 FEED @ $3.99

2,000 DXO @ $2.51

Also have a limit purchase in for that hasn't filled yet

3,000 FREE @ $1.33

 
Although everyone sees the +3.9 million barrels and panics this EIA report has some huge positives for higher oil, Namely:

- U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending April 17, up 529 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 83.4 percent of their operable capacity last week.

It should be noted that refineries have been operating at 81-82% so they basically worked these as hard as they have all year and still did not end up with all that much extra oil.

- U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.9 million barrels per day last week, up 464 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

So they imported more oil during this stretch too and did not end up with significantly bigger stockpiles

I know it would have looked a lot better to import less, have a smaller operating percentage and end up with less stock, but those concepts are essentially the same.

I still believe oil is heading higher soon here.

 
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The Z Machine said:
Why are the API and EIA reports seemingly always at odds with each other?
Click to expand...
Makes zero sense at all, but does create a little excitement I guess. I knew I was being suckered in when oil was down in the opening after the nice API report. Oh the joys of investing in these commodities that are routinely manipulated.
 
Year to Date Profit = $52,199

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +388

DXO + 388

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

25,000 DXO @ 2.56

4,000 UCO @ 7.28

I was able to bank a little profit while improving my cost in the oil shares. I sold off 10,000 shares of DXO at a minimal gain to give myself more room to manuever should oil head lower. I am not in any hurry to move out of this position and will add shares if oil drops more. I still suspect we will see $58-60 oil by July.

 
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David Dodds said:
Year to Date Profit = $52,199

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +388

DXO + 388

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

25,000 DXO @ 2.56

4,000 UCO @ 7.28

I was able to bank a little profit while improving my cost in the oil shares. I sold off 10,000 shares of DXO at a minimal gain to give myself more room to manuever should oil head lower. I am not in any hurry to move out of this position and will add shares if oil drops more. I still suspect we will see $58-60 oil by July.
Click to expand...
I am getting ready to move into DXO shortly. I agree with your assessment. Much higher oil prices on the horizon.
 
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