My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

Year to Date Profit = $135,707

Today's Realized Gains/Losses = $9,200

Sold 10K PRGN @ 5.75 - Profit = $3,700

Sold 8K PRGN @ 5.70 - Profit = $2,560

Sold 10K PRGN @ 5.65 - Profit = $2,700

Commissions = $48

Sold 1K DRYS @ 8.25 - Profit = $300 - 12

Unrealized Gains/Losses

4,000 DRYS @ 7.86

2,000 SBLK @ 5.08

1,000 KERX @ 1.29

 

[David Dodds]

added 2,000 shares of DRYS at $7.80

Maybe I am missing something. Does DRYS make any money? ($10.57) EPS?

DRYS is the king of the deal-making shippers. They sell stock, move debt around, always have 100 balls in the air, etc. They also are one of the Shippers that benefits the most when BDI goes up because they loving playing in the spot market. Their stock remains the most volatile in this space because there always appears to be something. I really do not trust this management team at all, but having watched these guys the last 3 months manipulate things at will, I just want in on the game. So when they are down, I will be buying. And then dumping on the pops. I know they want to dilute again. But I think they won't do this unless they can get the stock closer to $10. My range is $8.25 - $8.35 to be back out of this stock.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

You guys are nuts if you don't pocket a 50%+ gain on HEB. Congrats on the big score.

Holy crap.oh and

Oil prices have risen every day since May 21 on snips of moderately good news from manufacturers, home builders and the U.S. government.

 

[itriple]

Well it looks like PRGN is gonna close above the 200 day MA. If it does that two more days, you've got confirmation, and probably time to pile on board.

PILE IN PEOPLE!!!!Don't let that PRGN train leave the station without ya.

Im all out. I didnt want to stomach another dip to $5.25, hopefully we get at least one more chance to buy at that level. Otherwise, I might have to start thinking about getting into something else.

 

[David Dodds]

Well it looks like PRGN is gonna close above the 200 day MA. If it does that two more days, you've got confirmation, and probably time to pile on board.

PILE IN PEOPLE!!!!Don't let that PRGN train leave the station without ya.

Im all out. I didnt want to stomach another dip to $5.25, hopefully we get at least one more chance to buy at that level. Otherwise, I might have to start thinking about getting into something else.

We will all get multiple chances to get in. It might be at a higher price, but I will be ok with that once PRGN pushes much higher. So if they get to $6.25 and then retreat to $5.85 that looks more attractive than this $5.85 that hasn't been tested.

 

[Boulder Toads]

Well it looks like PRGN is gonna close above the 200 day MA. If it does that two more days, you've got confirmation, and probably time to pile on board.

PILE IN PEOPLE!!!!Don't let that PRGN train leave the station without ya.

Im all out. I didnt want to stomach another dip to $5.25, hopefully we get at least one more chance to buy at that level. Otherwise, I might have to start thinking about getting into something else.

We will all get multiple chances to get in. It might be at a higher price, but I will be ok with that once PRGN pushes much higher. So if they get to $6.25 and then retreat to $5.85 that looks more attractive than this $5.85 that hasn't been tested.

Agreed ... there should be more opportunities. I've got an order placed to execute at 5.55 (near the 200-day SMA) .... sound about right based on how this thing has been moving?

 

[The Ref]

I'm still confused as to whats going on with HEB. I'm happy, but confused.

 

[The Sniper]

Anyone still in FEED? Pretty great run lately itself.

 

[NYG Endzone]

I'm still confused as to whats going on with HEB. I'm happy, but confused.

No news to report yet. Rumor has it that the FDA likes to throw approval parties on Weds though.

 

[KGB]

Sold 3600 AGEN for 20% profit from just friday! Woohoo!

Sold @.87 24hours later its at 1.65 This would have doubled me up. i had all my money in there except for a small abount of HEB. Even though its a win it kills me. I need to stop being such a #### and hold longer.

 

[NajehHejan]

Sold 3600 AGEN for 20% profit from just friday! Woohoo!

Sold @.87 24hours later its at 1.65 This would have doubled me up. i had all my money in there except for a small abount of HEB. Even though its a win it kills me. I need to stop being such a #### and hold longer.

KGB, thanks for the tip on AGEN. I did my DD and bought in at $0.73 (only 1,200 shares). It's only a matter of time before the profit takers/bashers/MM's/etc manipulate this stock back down to below $1, but I just can't sell it yet. Even when the devil Adam Feuerstein writes his huge bash article on AGEN and the stock drops 50% (see CTIC, HEB for examples), I'll still hold the bag on this one. If need be, I'll be the last bag holder on the street corrner when the padlock goes on the AGEN door. I love these biopharm stocks but I just can't seem to take profits. The lure of 800, 900, 1,000% returns keep me holding. Where else can you make that kind of coin? Since my portfolio value is relatively low - I do not have much to play with - I'm swinging for the fences, as someone else here aptly put it. I'm sure I'll regret not taking some profits along the way, but I'm looking for those home runs. I'm currently up 110%, 28%, and 54% on AGEN, CTIC, and HEB respectively but am unable to lock in profits. My other holdings right now are ADXS at 1% profit and GNTA at 12% loss. I may sell some GNTA soon if it doesn't move.

 

[Buckna]

Anyone still in FEED? Pretty great run lately itself.

Hoping to hit $8.00 soon.

 

[The Ref]

Anyone still in FEED? Pretty great run lately itself.

Hoping to hit $8.00 soon.

FEED is a monster. I'm jealous to have not have owned any.

 

[The Ref]

I'm still confused as to whats going on with HEB. I'm happy, but confused.

No news to report yet. Rumor has it that the FDA likes to throw approval parties on Weds though.

FDA approves this tomorrow I can tell you that there will be a party at The refs house.

 

[David Dodds]

Just a heads up people that their are a lot of indicators suggesting a major correction could be very close here.

Here are some of the ones that I think look bleak:

Percentage of Stocks above their 200 day moving average

Ratio of New Highs / New Lows

Tons of Great Charts Here

Note March 9th (the market low) on all of these charts compared to where we are at right now. The percentage of stocks above their 200 day moving average is at unprecedented levels.

My strategy is to dump my DRYS (hopefully at a small profit) on Wednesday and mostly remain in a cash position for a bit here. If I buy at all it will be in day-trading bursts in/out and mostly selling at the close of the day each day to avoid having a ton of stocks that start free-falling in the pre-market.

 

[David Dodds]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

 

[BassNBrew]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

 

[Alias]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

:( more like this

 

[David Dodds]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

 

[FavreCo]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

.....FAZ. The ticker says it all. It cannot be ignored.

 

[FavreCo]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

Some other measure of the market is way ahead of itself. Something about earnings multiple and the current level of the S&P.

 

[David Dodds]

another good chart:

% of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average

78% seems a tad high to me...lol. No where to go but down in my opinion.

 

[BassNBrew]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

Problem is that we're talking about an unprecedented plummet to get us into this position to begin with. I guess you could make comparsions to the 1929 crash, but the gov't bailout approach/response is also different than 1929. Be wary of using historical tecnicals when we're in a non-historical period. 200 days takes us back to a time when people feared we were facing a total financial meltdown and bailing at any price. Stocks may be overpriced, but I'd base that on historical price to earnings before 200 day moving averages.

 

[burritobrother]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

I think a correction is likely, too, but why not wait until it starts instead of trying to get in ahead of it? There will still be plenty of meat on the bone.

 

[David Dodds]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

I think a correction is likely, too, but why not wait until it starts instead of trying to get in ahead of it? There will still be plenty of meat on the bone.

I just don't see the market going significantly higher in the very short-term here. The P/E info is bad too -I just did not point to that chart. I might miss here. Nothing is foolproof concerning the markets, etc. All I have done all year though is follow what my gut is telling me. I still like a few Dry Shipping companies, but most of them have catapulted upwards. They could fall the hardest in a correction. and even with the BDI sky-rocketing the last few weeks, a lot of the Dry Shipping companies struggled to make huge gains in the market. Those that did, did more based on great earnings reports. It has felt like people have been skittish for awhile now. All it takes is that DAY when the market is down 100 points in the pre-market and I think we could see a HUGE correction.

 

[David Dodds]

BDI still higher....

Baltic Supramax 1,862 (+1.03%)

Baltic Handysize 879 (+0.34%)

Baltic Dry 4,291 (+4.51%)

Baltic Capesize 8,147 (+5.48%)

Baltic Panamax 3,505 (+5.26%)

 

[Otis]

BDI still higher....

Baltic Supramax 1,862 (+1.03%)

Baltic Handysize 879 (+0.34%)

Baltic Dry 4,291 (+4.51%)

Baltic Capesize 8,147 (+5.48%)

Baltic Panamax 3,505 (+5.26%)

Here's to my 2000 shares of DRYS and the hopes that something juicy finally happens today...

Dodds, your FAZ plan is interesting, but it's scary as heck.

 

[The Ref]

Wow, the day that music died. Dodds turned bear. I don't think this is unwise, but I have a few things I would add.

I think it's very possible that we retest S&P ~1,006. I see another 40ish points on the S&P before I get real nervous again.

I'm all for shorting, but I'm not sure I want to be against the Emerging Markets right now. These stocks are still trading at historic lows and there is (IMHO) a flight from the dollar trade that will continue. I almost hope for another correction so I can get more EM at a discount. If I'm shorting the way down, I think I like SDS.

Im curious to hear thoughts on what commodities will look like in a market correction.

Edit to add FAZ

 

[David Dodds]

Wow, the day that music died. Dodds turned bear. I don't think this is unwise, but I have a few things I would add.I think it's very possible that we retest S&P ~1,006. I see another 40ish points on the S&P before I get real nervous again.I'm all for shorting, but I'm not sure I want to be against the Emerging Markets right now. These stocks are still trading at historic lows and there is (IMHO) a flight from the dollar trade that will continue. I almost hope for another correction so I can get more EM at a discount. If I'm shorting the way down, I think I like SDS.Im curious to hear thoughts on what commodities will look like in a market correction.

I agree with everything you say here. After a correction, I think we go right back to the commodities, China stocks and shippers. If I thought these sectors could weather a correction easily I would just stay in them. But stocks like FEED, SBLK, FREE, etc have moved up significantly this year. They are going to get pushed down hard too. But it will just make real easy buying opportunities for us

 

[The Z Machine]

I often follow along w/ DD, but there's no way I'm touching FAZ... ever. Way to easy to get horribly upside-down on them. I hope that DD can set a realistic stop and limit such that he gets out when he wants to.

Best of luck DD.

 

[David Dodds]

Decided to hedge a little and am going to hold Dry Shipping until I can sell for a profit.

Bought 2K FAZ @ 4.77

Bought 500 EEV @ 20.23

 

[Alias]

2/3rd FAZ @ 4.76

1/3rd SEA @ 13.61

 

[playin4beer]

This thread is so fricken awesome....

I am a VERY small fish compared to the moves you guys are making... but i bought 750 shares of AGEN yesterday for $1.35...

Sold this morning for $2.35...

Of couse now it will blow up to $14

edit... $2.92 $3.28 now... of course

 

[Otis]

Got a crapload deeper into DRYS at 7.46

 

[Random]

HEB guys

Anyone know when the approval/nonapproval announcement is supposed to be? Also whats your plan if its not approved? Are you selling at market, setting a stop loss, or holding?

 

[KGB]

This thread is so fricken awesome....

I am a VERY small fish compared to the moves you guys are making... but i bought 750 shares of AGEN yesterday for $1.35...

Sold this morning for $2.35...

Of couse now it will blow up to $14

edit... $2.92 $3.28 now... of course

You might be right. Holy smokes

 

[KGB]

HEB guys Anyone know when the approval/nonapproval announcement is supposed to be? Also whats your plan if its not approved? Are you selling at market, setting a stop loss, or holding?

Just a guess. But I think any announcement comes after hours

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Back in PRGN - 400 @ 5.515

 

[NYG Endzone]

HEB guys Anyone know when the approval/nonapproval announcement is supposed to be? Also whats your plan if its not approved? Are you selling at market, setting a stop loss, or holding?

Just a guess. But I think any announcement comes after hours

I'm contemplating selling now at $2.35 (I'm in at a CPS of $1.70), then buying back in below $2.30.

 

[Mark Davis]

I have decided to take largish positions in FAZ and EEV betting on a market correction in the very near term.

Dodds Castle and Moat after largish positions in FAZWhy would you move from a strategy that has treated you well and still can be effective to such a risky position?

In one pic: Breadth AnalysisRight now 55% of the stocks in the market are trading ABOVE their 200 day moving average line. That's insane. In fact if you look at the history of the stock market, I don't believe that number has ever gotten higher than that. A correction is coming. I am not certain when, but soon I think. I may just buy EEV instead of FAZ, but I think the biggest correction is due in the financials.

Good luck DD. I really believe that you may be right on sentiment but I'd play a short on FAS way before I'd buy FAZ. They both trend way down over time so I've yet to see a compelling reason not to short one instead of buying the other. I do hope it works for you though.

 

[DALYLA77]

I am really tempted to buy Citi at this price (3.32), someone please talk me out of it!

 

[Random]

HEB moving again.....

2.52

 

[The Ref]

HEB moving again.....2.52

This stock is nuts. Someone hit the up elevator button again.2.55 - we are at the 52 week high.Between this run up and yesterday, I'm optimistic we are going to get some real news at the end of the day.Poop - 2.68 in less then a minute - we are past the 52 week high.40 seconds later 2.75

 

[Random]

HEB moving again.....2.52

This stock is nuts. Someone hit the up elevator button again.2.55 - we are at the 52 week high.Between this run up and yesterday, I'm optimistic we are going to get some real news at the end of the day.Poop - 2.68 in less then a minute - we are past the 52 week high.

2.75

 

[Random]

ref - whats your plan with this rollercoaster?

 

[The Ref]

ref - whats your plan with this rollercoaster?

Holding on for dear life.FDA normaly anounces wed after market. Two different huge % run ups. someone knows something.

 

[Random]

ref - whats your plan with this rollercoaster?

Holding on for dear life.FDA normaly anounces wed after market. Two different huge % run ups. someone knows something.

No stop loss? What if this think doesn't get approved? Won't it be a massive run for the hills?

 

[NYG Endzone]

ref - whats your plan with this rollercoaster?

Holding on for dear life.FDA normaly anounces wed after market. Two different huge % run ups. someone knows something.

No stop loss? What if this think doesn't get approved? Won't it be a massive run for the hills?

I think it would dive fast, then recover. You'd want to be one of the last ones out.Also it can just as well get approved later in the year.

 

[FavreCo]

HEB could go the way of VNDA (although VNDA shot up 800% in one day) on FDA approval. If not approved, it does like all drug stocks do when failing, it goes back to where it started. That would be about 0.5.

 

[Random]

HEB could go the way of VNDA (although VNDA shot up 800% in one day) on FDA approval. If not approved, it does like all drug stocks do when failing, it goes back to where it started. That would be about 0.5.

So wouldn't a huge trailing stop be the play here? Something like 50% maybe?