My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

[This is LJ]

If the market can't break this now the market has to move back down and test the low at some point doesn't it?

No. It just means that the resistance got tested and held. Maybe we break it tomorrow. Maybe we dont. This might coincidentally be the top but it doesn't mean we're going to crash and burn because of one test and failure.EDIT: And even if we clear 956, its not a sure sign that we go higher. It needs to be maintained first with volume and then it can be used as an indicator. Just look at the 850 level in the S&P just a few weeks ago. Much ado made about it crossing beneath that level, by myself included, and everyone was thinking bear market. Now we're at 950.

 

[David Dodds]

I need to step out so I am setting a sell of 15,000 HEB at 2.58 in case it trips. Also have my FREE ready to dump at 2.16

 

[siffoin]

If the market can't break this now the market has to move back down and test the low at some point doesn't it?

No. It just means that the resistance got tested and held. Maybe we break it tomorrow. Maybe we dont. This might coincidentally be the top but it doesn't mean we're going to crash and burn because of one test and failure.EDIT: And even if we clear 956, its not a sure sign that we go higher. It needs to be maintained first with volume and then it can be used as an indicator. Just look at the 850 level in the S&P just a few weeks ago. Much ado made about it crossing beneath that level, by myself included, and everyone was thinking bear market. Now we're at 950.

So in sum you saying the market could go up...and then go up some more. Or it could go up...then come down a little. Or it could go down, but only a by little. Because if it goes down there is no way it will test the lows?I'm just teasing ya. I saw your other post, why don't you just trade for a living?In the Futs trades today made about $650. A decent day. I see 5 from here are "following" in twitter. I'm trying to post as soon as the trade is filled...but the timing is a bit off...maybe 1 minute. So if you follow...only do-so without $ on the line. Maybe there is a way to make it more seemless. But as was pointed out yesterday...I'm older than 40...and the technology may just be beyond me.

 

[kaa]

I remember back in 2002 I was buying gold miners and every time you turned around, another small miner would dilute to either unwind stupid hedges (they bought contracts to sell forward gold at like $212 at the market bottom and then gold rebounded over $300. Oops!) or to finance new digs. They often would get punished in the short term. After a while, investors generally separated the miners into two camps.

1. The "smart" miners that would dilute when the gold stock sector was weak and declining.

2. The "stupid" miners that would dilute in the middle of a major sector breakout, scaring everyone away when it was time to make money fast.

I still remember how people would get so amped about a small gold mining company, and then the sector would go ballistic, and right then, their company announced a dilution. Oh was there a ton of screaming and crying.

 

[This is LJ]

If the market can't break this now the market has to move back down and test the low at some point doesn't it?

No. It just means that the resistance got tested and held. Maybe we break it tomorrow. Maybe we dont. This might coincidentally be the top but it doesn't mean we're going to crash and burn because of one test and failure.EDIT: And even if we clear 956, its not a sure sign that we go higher. It needs to be maintained first with volume and then it can be used as an indicator. Just look at the 850 level in the S&P just a few weeks ago. Much ado made about it crossing beneath that level, by myself included, and everyone was thinking bear market. Now we're at 950.

So in sum you saying the market could go up...and then go up some more. Or it could go up...then come down a little. Or it could go down, but only a by little. Because if it goes down there is no way it will test the lows?I'm just teasing ya. I saw your other post, why don't you just trade for a living?In the Futs trades today made about $650. A decent day. I see 5 from here are "following" in twitter. I'm trying to post as soon as the trade is filled...but the timing is a bit off...maybe 1 minute. So if you follow...only do-so without $ on the line. Maybe there is a way to make it more seemless. But as was pointed out yesterday...I'm older than 40...and the technology may just be beyond me.

Man thats a risky game you play with futures. Glad you're doing well. As for trading for a living, thats what I'm doing right now. Its nice, couple beers, tv, trading. If SRSR hits the jackpot, hopefully making a living wont be a priority anymore.Yeah the concept took me a while to grasp, that a simple crossing of a support/resistance didn't mean anything. Its the retesting of that same level (crossing 956 makes it support, retesting support and holding) that gives that level significance. It could go down from here but we have supports in the 930's and 918. On the upside, we have clear skies until 1007. Higher highs, higher lows for the past 4 trading sessions, no reason to worry until it stops that trend IMO.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Where has that FAZit Mr. Pickles been?

 

[BassNBrew]

Where has that FAZit Mr. Pickles been?

It's all good from where I'm sitting.

 

[This is LJ]

Bull####, I prefaced that post. Anyway, FREE getting hit AH. PRGN up though

 

[parasaurolophus]

Bull####, I prefaced that post. Anyway, FREE getting hit AH. PRGN up though

what was this in response to?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Have a note on my Ameritrade screen that says FREE is offering 8.73M shares at 1.80/sh.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Bull####, I prefaced that post. Anyway, FREE getting hit AH. PRGN up though

what was this in response to?

Posted a link to a picture that won't fly on this board, whether it's prefaced as NSFW or not.

 

[BassNBrew]

Dang...Just lost $350 on FREE. Fortunately I only got stuck with 1000 shares.

So who are the lucky folks that get to buy the new shares at $1.80? I would expect that it will trade between $1.85 and $2.00 for the next month or so.

 

[The Ref]

Thoughts on FEED? Down in the $5.40s.

can someone tell me how many outstanding shares FEED has. I never knew thier balance sheet looked so darn good. I'm trying to figure out what the share price would be if we all chiped in and bought the company sold off the parts and distributed the cash - Gordon Gecko style.

 

[This is LJ]

Bull####, I prefaced that post. Anyway, FREE getting hit AH. PRGN up though

what was this in response to?

Posted a link to a picture that won't fly on this board, whether it's prefaced as NSFW or not.

Did I at least get a laugh?

 

[kaa]

Seems like everything is on hold right now. The S&P is bouncing off 956 and can't hold it.I'm scared to sell, I'm scared to buy, and I'm scared standing still.

LOL...me too!

The USD index is falling to 78.70 and taking the market back over 956 with it.... Quesiton is, how long do you stick with being long? There is a lot of great news right now and this thing cant get over 956 S&P. If the market can't break this now the market has to move back down and test the low at some point doesn't it?

isnt that what the wise and mighty beeej has been saying? everyday.

HEY! I said it once last week, corrected my mistake, and found it was tuesday. If that's wrong, then I'm just wrong. But I'm sticking to my guns on this one. It was tuesday.

 

[The Ref]

Thoughts on FEED? Down in the $5.40s.

can someone tell me how many outstanding shares FEED has. I never knew thier balance sheet looked so darn good. I'm trying to figure out what the share price would be if we all chiped in and bought the company sold off the parts and distributed the cash - Gordon Gecko style.

Never mind - I found it, 39.29M shares. I wonder if that before a recent dilution?Ether way, I think I'm in love (Based on 1Q).Shares/Cash = .53Shares/Receivables + Inventories = .96Shares/Property Plant and Equip = .87Shares/Total Assets = $2.36Shares/ALL Liabilities = .41So we could buy the company for $5.50 a share and sell it all off and get $1.95 a share.If we didn't sell, we would pay $3.55 for a revenue stream that would pay us .40 a share (based on 1Q run rate) or a 11ish% return.So I guess the real question is, will FEED perform better then .40 EPS in 2009. Motley Fool has the estimate at .41 but last year was .71. By the numbers this is already a good stock at this price. But if there is any movement up to the 09 EPS it could really send the stock price up...Also - China stock. China = Growth = EPS potentialChina = Business in RNB and not USD = USD HedgeAdditionally....FEED is both a Hog Farm Stock and Agricultural Products StockHog Farm P/E Ratio = 8-10 depending on peerAgricultural Products P/E Ratio = 12-16 depending on peer.P/E is ~ 9.75 based on the .41 est.Anyone have a line on earnings results by segment? The P/E could be low by peer grouping.

 

[This is LJ]

FEED

Chart looks bearish at this point. We stagnated at the highs 4 the past four trading sessions (before today), and have had three straight days of lower lows. RSI and MACD are also set for imminent bearish crosses. If we continue dropping, the next support is at 5.42 and after that 5.01. Only about 3% potential upside to the next support, so I'm going to hold off on shorting it tomorrow morning, unless I get a good entry. I like this stock a lot long term, but I think if you wait a bit, you'll be looking at a much better entry point. This will drift down on low volume. When do they report?

 

[David Dodds]

Dang...Just lost $350 on FREE. Fortunately I only got stuck with 1000 shares.So who are the lucky folks that get to buy the new shares at $1.80? I would expect that it will trade between $1.85 and $2.00 for the next month or so.

wow I am having a bad month in the market. I was able to sell some shares through the day, but I still am holding 9600 shares. What an absolute joke to do this right before earnings after they issued a presser telling everyone how they had locked down their ships to longer term deals. So damn frustrating. Also upside down in HEB, but maybe I can exit that for a small loss. I think I am going to dump everything in the morning and just sit the sidelines for awhile. Painful trading lately here. I have no feel at all where the market is going (It is heavily overpriced, but keeps going up because the dollar is so weak). I am going to just get out and look for a lot better spots.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Yeah, saw this coming....

DEARBORN, Mich. – Ford Motor Co. posted a surprise second-quarter profit of $2.8 billion Thursday, due to income related to a reduction of debt.The nation's second-largest automaker said it earned 69 cents a share, compared with a loss of $8.7 billion, or $3.89 a share, for the same quarter a year ago. That quarter was the worst in Ford's history.Excluding special items, including the debt reduction, Dearborn, Mich.-based Ford would have lost $424 million, or 21 cents a share, far surpassing analysts' expectations. Analysts polled Thomson Reuters expected a per share loss of 50 cents on revenue of $24.7 billion.Excluding special items the company lost just over $1 billion in the second quarter of last year.The second-quarter profit came because of a $3.4 billion gain due to debt reduction. In March Ford swapped stock and cash to reduce its loan and bond debt by $7.7 billion. The company has reduced its debt by $10.1 billion this year, and is likely to take additional action this year to further cut debt and raise cash.Ford spent $1 billion more in cash than it earned in the quarter, compared to $1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2009.Revenue was $27.2 billion, $11 billion less than the comparable quarter a year ago.Shares of the company rose 34 cents, or 5.3 percent, to $6.72 in pre-market trade.

 

[itriple]

10th straight day PRGN's ship types are all UP (Check out Panmax's chart 9-month high):

Baltic Indices

Baltic Dry 3,355 (-1.53%)

Baltic Capesize 5,218 (-3.71%)

Baltic Panamax 3,495 (+1.04%)

Baltic Supramax 2,095 (+0.43%)

Baltic Handysize 874 (+0.92%)

 

[guru_007]

Dang...Just lost $350 on FREE. Fortunately I only got stuck with 1000 shares.So who are the lucky folks that get to buy the new shares at $1.80? I would expect that it will trade between $1.85 and $2.00 for the next month or so.

Anyone buying today should be part of that lucky contingent.I'm pretty sure I'll add to my position today. I read the entire report detailing the additional shares being issued. This kind of deal is going to become increasingly common. FREE was pretty much forced to do so in order to keep within the covenants agreed upon with their lenders as far as meeting equity obligations. Shippers are having a very difficult time finding financing and need to raise equity in some way if they want to add/upgrade their fleet.I also like what FREE is doing here in that they are not locking up their fleet to long term deals, ad the spot market rate had dropped so fast and so low. They are gambling that the spot market rate will improve, thus their revenues will improve. They only have 1/3 of their fleet in long term charters. They are going to try to add to their fleet to further take advantage of an improved spot market (as itriple had posted, this is the 10th straight day of increases). That's not to say FREE doesn't have significant risks too, for instance higher oil prices, the spot market decreasing, further dilution of shares....these are all going to hamper earnings per share. But, I think there is money to be made in the shipping industry and FREE seems committed to try to boost profits. Of this share offering, the CEO is picking up 200,000 shares himself. One thing that kinda sucks is the offering was priced with the stock trading at $2.37/share, yet they are having to sell at quite a bit less, plus 10% of the proceeds go to one of their lenders.....so buyer beware.(not trying to sound like a pumper, just trying to give FREE a little love)g'luck

 

[Random]

Dang...Just lost $350 on FREE. Fortunately I only got stuck with 1000 shares.So who are the lucky folks that get to buy the new shares at $1.80? I would expect that it will trade between $1.85 and $2.00 for the next month or so.

Anyone buying today should be part of that lucky contingent.I'm pretty sure I'll add to my position today. I read the entire report detailing the additional shares being issued. This kind of deal is going to become increasingly common. FREE was pretty much forced to do so in order to keep within the covenants agreed upon with their lenders as far as meeting equity obligations. Shippers are having a very difficult time finding financing and need to raise equity in some way if they want to add/upgrade their fleet.I also like what FREE is doing here in that they are not locking up their fleet to long term deals, ad the spot market rate had dropped so fast and so low. They are gambling that the spot market rate will improve, thus their revenues will improve. They only have 1/3 of their fleet in long term charters. They are going to try to add to their fleet to further take advantage of an improved spot market (as itriple had posted, this is the 10th straight day of increases). That's not to say FREE doesn't have significant risks too, for instance higher oil prices, the spot market decreasing, further dilution of shares....these are all going to hamper earnings per share. But, I think there is money to be made in the shipping industry and FREE seems committed to try to boost profits. Of this share offering, the CEO is picking up 200,000 shares himself. One thing that kinda sucks is the offering was priced with the stock trading at $2.37/share, yet they are having to sell at quite a bit less, plus 10% of the proceeds go to one of their lenders.....so buyer beware.(not trying to sound like a pumper, just trying to give FREE a little love)g'luck

So whats the downside to buying today at say 1.80-1.85?

 

[guru_007]

So whats the downside to buying today at say 1.80-1.85?

as I mentioned, if oil prices rise, or the spot market plummets again...or, more shares are issued for further dilution - those are the three biggest risks I see, not necessarily in that order.I added earlier at these lower prices.Oh, one other thing, 18 million or so shares need to be sold/purchased. That's a lot of shares.

 

[iowa clubbers]

just bought 1000 shares of SMN @ $15.91

 

[itriple]

PRGN reports earnings in approx 9 more trading days (SBLK the week after).

ROCKET SHIP IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE LAUCH PAD!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mose]

PRGN reports earnings in approx 9 more trading days (SBLK the week after).ROCKET SHIP IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE LAUCH PAD!!!!!!!!!!

I hope so. I bought back in today. Also bought some more FREE to try to cost average down. I'm still in the red on that one pretty bad.

 

[Mose]

KERX has been creeping up these past few days. Anyone else in that one?

 

[kaa]

Crude oil is down. I'm looking at several commodities down. Dow up 100 points on the day.

Don't tell me commodities are going to decouple from the market.

 

[Otis]

PRGN reports earnings in approx 9 more trading days (SBLK the week after).ROCKET SHIP IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE LAUCH PAD!!!!!!!!!!

Boy I'm hoping this is right. I'm not thrilled that the market is blowing up today and PRGN is only up barely a percent, but who knows. I have options and I think I'm gonna hold through earnings. Boom or bust, kids.

 

[itriple]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young.

Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

 

[Mark Davis]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young. Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

Yeah believe me I am a bit over it. I seem to have the midas touch in that regard. Although in realtiy my 401K was only about 35% of my total market exposure so I've benefitted from the run up nicely in my other accounts. I'm also not yet convinced this rally holds longer term. It's an odd feeling because if it does hold then I do better in every account other than my 401K and if it retraces then it takes away that other error. Total damage right now is about $15K but I also benefitted about double that in the run up on the others.

 

[The Ref]

PRGN reports earnings in approx 9 more trading days (SBLK the week after).ROCKET SHIP IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE LAUCH PAD!!!!!!!!!!

Boy I'm hoping this is right. I'm not thrilled that the market is blowing up today and PRGN is only up barely a percent, but who knows. I have options and I think I'm gonna hold through earnings. Boom or bust, kids.

It's hard to be worried when this stock went from 3.40ish to 4.30ish in a week. If the market holds up there should be a pre earnings run on PRGN. Won't be much longer till we find out.

 

[Joe Mammy]

I've been lurking and tailing for awhile now. For you PRGN players I was wondering why the lack of volume doesn't concern you?

Also, I'm holding CENX with a cost basis of 5.70. Is holding through today's earnings wise? I'll most likely sell it off this afternoon before the close.

 

[The Ref]

FEED

Chart looks bearish at this point. We stagnated at the highs 4 the past four trading sessions (before today), and have had three straight days of lower lows. RSI and MACD are also set for imminent bearish crosses. If we continue dropping, the next support is at 5.42 and after that 5.01. Only about 3% potential upside to the next support, so I'm going to hold off on shorting it tomorrow morning, unless I get a good entry. I like this stock a lot long term, but I think if you wait a bit, you'll be looking at a much better entry point. This will drift down on low volume. When do they report?

I think your chart is broken.FEED $5.88 +.26 + 4.28%I'm not sure when they report, but I hope it's after PRGN (it won't be).

 

[KGB]

Finally BEE going off for me.

Up 11% today. Woohoo!

 

[siffoin]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young. Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

You are saying that from this point forward...for the rest of time...the lows from a few weeks ago will never be hit?

 

[The Ref]

I've been lurking and tailing for awhile now. For you PRGN players I was wondering why the lack of volume doesn't concern you? Also, I'm holding CENX with a cost basis of 5.70. Is holding through today's earnings wise? I'll most likely sell it off this afternoon before the close.

And we could use the volume on PRGN. If we can snap up the last of the 10K or so offered shares at 4.45 and 4.46 we could see 4.50-4.55 in not a lot of time.Good luck with CENX, I'm not sure what I would do.

 

[KGB]

Finally BEE going off for me. Up 11% today. Woohoo!

Had all my money in BEE. Sold half my shares @1.14 up 16%. From .98

 

[The Ref]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young. Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

You are saying that from this point forward...for the rest of time...the lows from a few weeks ago will never be hit?

At the rate we are printing money, I would say no. In real inflation adjusted terms, it's certainly possible.

 

[Mark Davis]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young. Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

You are saying that from this point forward...for the rest of time...the lows from a few weeks ago will never be hit?

That was my thinking when I sold out of the 401K account. At the end of the day if it works out that was the low then of course it was a mistake but the majority of my equity assets would still get the benefit. However, I am yet to be a believer that it won't get lower than S&P 880 again, which is about the point I sold. In fact, I was obviously thinking it could go even lower. Short term it was a bad move but longer term I'm not sure the jury isn't still out on that one.

 

[Boulder Toads]

Diversified my shipper holdings and purchased 700 of SBLK at 3.60.

Still holding 4300 PRGN ... plan to hold both companies at least through earnings ...

 

[lod01]

I need to get some of whatever this guy is on.

Dow 15,000, Here We Come: Stocks Going to New Highs, Lemonides Says

But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there's plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. "When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you're bumping up against the top end of a range it’s sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher," he says.

This dude may need to step outside his bubble and take a look around.

 

[kaa]

I also predict bad news for Booksamillion and other book sellers. Buying a book is luxury when you can get them for free at the library. Bad economy = bad for bookstores.People need things, but buying books is never a need (except for a student and they shop at the school bookstore typically).

I'd say at least 50-60% of students shun the bookstore and buy online.

What do you mean buy books? Students will sometimes buy 1 text book and photocopy it multiple times for free, then split the cost of the one book, then sell it back to the bookstore at the end of the quarter. Or even just sell it back after they finish photocopying it and have free books.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

These last 2 weeks are a good reason you dont pull-out your 401k when your young.

Id be if I missed out on this run. That is gonna mean a crap-load less in 25 years when i Retire.

XI put half in a fixed fund in June 08. I would have lost almost 85k (75k + 10K I made) if I hadn't.

Of course I was 37 at the time. Maybe you don't consider that young.

 

[kaa]

Maybe the market is telling us that it sees a recovery coming, and is not worried about the government's willingness to go $2 trillion in annual debt. So commodities lag behind in this rally.

"Deficits don't matter!"

I never question what the market is telling me, but the consequences of that attitude is that the government may decide to push the annual debt to $4 trillion or $5 trillion, just because investors don't care. I doubt the government will stop running that debt higher until the public really starts seeing the risk and getting out of the dollar.

So, this could be the start of some Great Debt Bubble that destroys the entire economy maybe by 2011 or 2012. But if that's what investors want, and today it seems to be what they are saying, then it could materialize.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I need to get some of whatever this guy is on.

Dow 15,000, Here We Come: Stocks Going to New Highs, Lemonides Says

But Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer with ValueWorks, says there's plenty of upside left, thanks to improving fundamentals. "When you have better economic conditions and really, really compelling valuations; and you're bumping up against the top end of a range it’s sort of a good recipe for breaking through that range and going significantly higher," he says.

This dude may need to step outside his bubble and take a look around.

I read this article this morning. Reminded me of Dow 40,000 predictions in 1999.

 

[David Dodds]

OK, huge hole in the stomach after HEB and FREE screwed me yesterday. I am hoping someone can explain this to me based on the SEC filing they just did.

SEC Filing

1. They are offering shares at $1.80. Who can buy those at $1.80?

2. The stock is trading at $1.84 now. I suppose these are the shares that are not included in the $1.80 price.

3. The SEC filing said they expected to be fully diluted by July 28th (next Tuesday). That's insane numbers to sell. But based on the early volume today at $1.81-1.84 (on different shares I think), I tend to believe them. This to me seems like it's creating a SURE THING once dilution passes. This company has stated they will pay down debt. It was already very profitable. Their ship classes are at year highs.

I am extremely tempted here to take a RIDICULOUS large position in this company at $1.82/share or so. If my hunch is correct this will run up to $2.30+ (and possibly higher) by earnings. At the end of the day, this company is doing this MOVE because they can. It's a few week blip before it recovers and is among the best shippers to have in the space. The thing about FREE that one has to love too is that they use their ships in the spot market. Well those numbers are skyrocketing for the smaller vessels. They have been very successful to lock in 45 to 60 day charters at very high prices. If that continues this thing will take off AFTER earnings too.

 

[itriple]

Forgive me because I have sinned.

In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

 

[Otis]

Forgive me because I have sinned.In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

oof

 

[Otis]

For the technical analysis nerds, we now have a golden cross in PRGN -- very bullish signal:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRGN&...id=p59871312561

So we have a golden cross, and the stock bounced off the 50 and 200 day MAs at it's low for the day so far. Technicals looking pretty bullish here. I don't mine the low volume -- I think it's just consolidation. If the PRGN bulls are right, that's all this is, and we'll move somewhat sideways a bit before blasting off again.

Fingers crossed gang.