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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)

Finally the catch up move SBLK holders were hoping for.
:lmao: When PRGN shot up to 4.30 last week I wanted to sell out and get into SBLK, but I have a 3 day clearance in my account and I didn't want to sell and have a run like today when I was on the sidelines.Lets hope the market stays up and the shippers start to report good earnings!
 
FREE up to $1.95. What is the "value" play at this price. What kind of target are folks thinking for buying/selling?

 
This is LJ said:
Najeh are you watching EXPH? LJ did you buy in right away like you were thinking?
Woke up too late. :deadbanana:SRSR going through another crazy day. BIEL with another nice gain. Thinking about taking a swing position in CNB.

EDIT: NVM. CNB has earnings after the bell. I'll pass.
The play the past couple days in SRSR is buy early and just sell it late. I'm still in mine at $.165.
:unsure: HOD at SRSR. Also, a pretty well known internet elliott-wave trader just determined his five-wave advance target of $.42. Awesome.
This thing is still all over the board. Ran up to $.188 while I was at lunch before closing down.
 
EXPH hit .02Bad day to sleep in LJ!!Najeh you have to be going crazy!!!
Unreal ride so far. I really hope this thing doesn’t sell off too much tomorrow. I’m averaged in at .0085 and was tempted to take some profits all the way up to .021 but I’m too optimistic on the company’s future as well as too greedy. We’ll see if this hog still gets slaughtered yet.
 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again.

Just curious what others are trying.

 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again. Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
 
This is LJ said:
Najeh are you watching EXPH? LJ did you buy in right away like you were thinking?
Woke up too late. :deadbanana:SRSR going through another crazy day. BIEL with another nice gain. Thinking about taking a swing position in CNB.

EDIT: NVM. CNB has earnings after the bell. I'll pass.
The play the past couple days in SRSR is buy early and just sell it late. I'm still in mine at $.165.
:thumbup: HOD at SRSR. Also, a pretty well known internet elliott-wave trader just determined his five-wave advance target of $.42. Awesome.
This thing is still all over the board. Ran up to $.188 while I was at lunch before closing down.
Mark, great news today from SRSR. Everyone is on alert now. This thing could move very soon. They released the NI-43 today and wow, talk about a homerun. Their minerals report shows nearly 2.5x of estimated reserves with a higher %/tonne than they expected (.043-->.05). Awesome release, you can read it at their website. Blockbuster news. Barebones PPS estimates from just the report alone at iHub have ranged from the lows in the .40's and highs in the $1 range. But today had some heavy manipulation from some of the MM's, especially NITE. As far as why we're still in trading in the 15's, I honestly have no idea. The trading today by the MM's was strange. Within minutes of a 2/1 B/A ratio @ 18 cents, it not only fell but we were back down to 15 with a similar 2/1 ratio. Last reported trade was at .172 (delayed). At this point, most investors are probably in for the long side. I wouldn't be surprised if the iHub community alone has picked up another 5% of OS. I didn't see huge chunks on L2, so I'm assuming that the instituional investors haven't fully digested the report.

To be able to double up today was absolute theft. This is trading way below what its worth. With the way its been trading, nothing would surprise me. But theres a realistic chance we open up huge tomorrow.

 
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Probably a rookie question, but I'm currently looking at ANDS which had some news I guess after hours and popped 7%. The last trade is at 1.95 but the low ask is 1.90. Why would anyone want to sell at 1.90? I tried to jump in and quickly snag the shares at 1.90, but my order hasn't been filled yet. Why? There haven't been any trades since 4:15.

 
Probably a rookie question, but I'm currently looking at ANDS which had some news I guess after hours and popped 7%. The last trade is at 1.95 but the low ask is 1.90. Why would anyone want to sell at 1.90? I tried to jump in and quickly snag the shares at 1.90, but my order hasn't been filled yet. Why? There haven't been any trades since 4:15.
Did u enter it correctly for an afterhours trade. On ameritrade its different.
 
FREE up to $1.95. What is the "value" play at this price. What kind of target are folks thinking for buying/selling?
PRGN, SBLK, FREE...... Who knows that the right price is. I guess none of us will really know until they release earnings. That said, if the first few shippers come in over targets with the market on the way up as it is, the whole sector could jump higher.
 
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FREE up to $1.95. What is the "value" play at this price. What kind of target are folks thinking for buying/selling?
PRGN, SBLK, FREE...... Who knows that the right price is. I guess none of us will really know until they release earnings. That said, if the first few shippers come in over targets with the market on the way up as it is, the whole sector could jump higher.
Do you know when they each release earnings without delving too much into their sites?
 
FREE up to $1.95. What is the "value" play at this price. What kind of target are folks thinking for buying/selling?
PRGN, SBLK, FREE...... Who knows that the right price is. I guess none of us will really know until they release earnings. That said, if the first few shippers come in over targets with the market on the way up as it is, the whole sector could jump higher.
Do you know when they each release earnings without delving too much into their sites?
Earnings release scheduleIf you search for a company and it is an old earnings date, the company has not announced it yet.

 
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I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again. Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011. I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield. One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.
 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again.

Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011. I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield.

One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.
couldnt this be extremely good for the market?
 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again.

Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011. I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield.

One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.
couldnt this be extremely good for the market?
No, the market would react better if everyone was out spending money. There is a massive deleveraging of debt going on as consumers are paying down credit cards and not spending as much money. This will take awhile before the economy gets better. It is good for the consumer as they are becoming more frugal and fiscally responsable.
 
Year to Date Profit = $144,585

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses =

Sold 5,000 HEB at 2.50 - Profit = 550 -12 = +538

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

10,000 HEB @ 2.39

Just kind of in a holding pattern here with my FREE and HEB. I still believe the market is overbought, but now believe it could hold this way through earnings. Looking to start diversifying from FREE near $2.25 and will sell all at $2.50 if it gets there (I expect this will inch up pennies a day until we get close to earnings). Looking to daytrade HEB while I await the FDA decision. Now that I am back to 10,000 shares of HEB I am going to work in these margins (buy at 2.30, sell at 2.55). If I add at 2.30, I will then lower my sell to 2.50.

 
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Year to Date Profit = $144,585

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses =

Sold 5,000 HEB at 2.50 - Profit = 550 -12 = +538

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

10,000 HEB @ 2.39

Just kind of in a holding pattern here with my FREE and HEB. I still believe the market is overbought, but now believe it could hold this way through earnings. Looking to start diversifying from FREE near $2.25 and will sell all at $2.50 if it gets there (I expect this will inch up pennies a day until we get close to earnings). Looking to daytrade HEB while I await the FDA decision. Now that I am back to 10,000 shares of HEB I am going to work in these margins (buy at 2.30, sell at 2.55). If I add at 2.30, I will then lower my sell to 2.50.
How much higher do you see PRGN and SBLK going?
 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again.

Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011. I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield.

One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.
I'd rather let a rattlesnake bite me then own $.50 worth of US Treasuries. I'm kidding of course, I'd let the snake bite me before I owned $.25.Very Low returns + the ultimate investment with exposure to the USD + I'm under 50 = Pass

edit to say I would consider this on an ETF basis if I was playing a market downturn - but not for long periods and I would rather hold cash use short ETF's in the right spots. I also have a huge bias to USD right now, so take that with a grain of salt.

 
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Year to Date Profit = $144,585

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses =

Sold 5,000 HEB at 2.50 - Profit = 550 -12 = +538

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

10,000 HEB @ 2.39

Just kind of in a holding pattern here with my FREE and HEB. I still believe the market is overbought, but now believe it could hold this way through earnings. Looking to start diversifying from FREE near $2.25 and will sell all at $2.50 if it gets there (I expect this will inch up pennies a day until we get close to earnings). Looking to daytrade HEB while I await the FDA decision. Now that I am back to 10,000 shares of HEB I am going to work in these margins (buy at 2.30, sell at 2.55). If I add at 2.30, I will then lower my sell to 2.50.
How much higher do you see PRGN and SBLK going?
Depends on what the broad market does I think. If the indexes head south, this could be close to the peak. If the bull run lasts another few weeks, these stocks could go noticeably higher.
 
I know a lot of people here are bearish on the long-term prospects for the USD. Other than metals, what else are you doing to mitigate some risk? I'm starting to take a position in VIPSX, Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund. I'm also holding some Australian dollars through an EverBank CD. I started out in the hole on that one but it's been rising back steadily to about break-even again.

Just curious what others are trying.
Inverse treasury funds ( RRPIX RYJUX ) might be worth a look. I just have them on my radar for now... I'll probably take a harder look whenever inflation begins to pick up steam.
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011. I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield.

One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.
couldnt this be extremely good for the market?
No, the market would react better if everyone was out spending money. There is a massive deleveraging of debt going on as consumers are paying down credit cards and not spending as much money. This will take awhile before the economy gets better. It is good for the consumer as they are becoming more frugal and fiscally responsable.
thats not really what I meant. I was kinda looking at myself as the test case. I decided to become active because I didnt feel like spending on vacations or other things like that. Couldnt other investors do the same?One thing this market right now is showing us is that the actual profitability of a company might not be relevant, but the number of people wanting to buy stocks is. These stupid "not as bad as we expected" earnings reports are kinda the proof.

Obviously I realize if everything was going gangbusters and everybody was spending money things would be better. Thats not realistic. People pulling back on luxury spending and putting their money elsewhere when the economy is down could help the market hold serve while other stuff is in the crapper.

just my two cents.

 
I would recommend staying away from the inverse treasury funds for now. Inflation is probably coming but not for another 1-2 years. Deflation is the name of the game now. Unemployment rate is rising and income levels are coming down. Add in the fact that prices are deflating at an annual rate of 4%, personal savings rate has gone from -1% to 7%, and housing has not found solid ground and it will be awhile before the Fed starts raising rates, probably 2011.

I actually think treasuries are an attractive play right now especially if you have exposure to equities. Take a look at TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF currently yielding 4.31%, or IEF, the 7-10 year treasury ETF currently yielding around 3.90%. Treasuries have gotten beat up lately with this run up in the market. If there is a pull back in the market treasuries should give you some appreciation on top of the yield.

One stat that I keep looking at is that over the past 50 years during recessions the 10 year treasury yield has always bottomed when the unemployment rate peaked. The 10 year treasury yield was at 2% back in December and is now around 3.60%. I don't see the unemployment rate peaking until at least next year. If history stays true we will see the 10 year treasury back down towards 2% before this is over.

couldnt this be extremely good for the market?

No, the market would react better if everyone was out spending money. There is a massive deleveraging of debt going on as consumers are paying down credit cards and not spending as much money. This will take awhile before the economy gets better. It is good for the consumer as they are becoming more frugal and fiscally responsable.

thats not really what I meant. I was kinda looking at myself as the test case. I decided to become active because I didnt feel like spending on vacations or other things like that. Couldnt other investors do the same?

One thing this market right now is showing us is that the actual profitability of a company might not be relevant, but the number of people wanting to buy stocks is. These stupid "not as bad as we expected" earnings reports are kinda the proof.

Obviously I realize if everything was going gangbusters and everybody was spending money things would be better. Thats not realistic. People pulling back on luxury spending and putting their money elsewhere when the economy is down could help the market hold serve while other stuff is in the crapper.

just my two cents.

What you say makes sense. I'm sure there are many people doing what you are doing. However, with income levels declining, so many people out of work so they can't contribute to 401k's, and many employers cutting the company match I believe most people are on the conservative side with their savings.

I could make an argument that the market will sell off 20% or that it will go up 20%. There are a lot of conflicting signals right now. This rally is great but I think we may be due for a correction. As you stated above I would like to see solid revenues from companies, not just aggressive cost cutting measures to beat earnings. Revenues accross the board this earnings are down 10% on a year over year basis. There are only so much costs you can cut, eventually we need to see frontline growth return.

That said I still like the market long term, and I think having some treasuries and gold in your portfolio with your stocks would be a good balance. It is my opinion that you do not want to be too heavily weighted towards anything because that is how you can get burned. If you were all stocks you got crushed in 2008, all treasuries have been beaten up in 2009.

 
This post makes a lot of sense for HEB:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...mp;frt=1#288098

I could be looking at adding 10,000 shares here. If this scenario is right then we are looking at FDA Approval (with a caveat for a Phase 4 test). FDA approval would prop up the stock to over $6 and possibly to over $10.

Some more good posts:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...mp;frt=1#286877

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%...mp;frt=1#286308

Of course the bashers try and flood the boards to push those posts down. I am feeling way more confident these days that HEB has the miracle drug. They essentially have something that allows the body to better attack things. This could be a game changer for the flu, CFS, HIV, cancer, etc. Yes it seems crazy, but take the time and read through some of this stuff. Carter has been involved with Interferon forever. It's well documented that that helps immunity, but toxicity issues exist. Ampligen is the careful work to remove that toxicity. I can see why so much bashing is going on with HEB. If this really does what the Japanese are citing (boosting a flu shot by a factor of 100 so less antigen is needed), then this is clearly a game changer on that front (and many pharms are going to get hurt as Ampligen invades their space). Add in CFS where they will have orphan status (7 years of PURE profits), interest from Japan, Canada, Australia, etc and this could be really big.

 
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This post makes a lot of sense for HEB:
Hey Dodds, check out this link on short interest. With the new naked shorting rule, HEB could be a huge beneficiary, especially if the uptick rule gets passed as well. 13% of the float is ridiculous and its a main reason why this stock can't maintain its trends except for periods pre CC where the shorts have to cover or risk geting blown out. I still think HEB trends flat/down for the next few week but these sets of legislation can help it to stop being such a boom/bust stock and trade normally. We wont have the huge trading swings anymore like we did last week, so it'll keep a lot of the short-term traders out and make this an investment again.
 
Serious investor question for everyone:

1. From strictly a +EV standpoint, Is there a better stock to have in your portfolio than HEB? History shows us that the FDA disapproves drugs on time. CRLs to correct deficiencies are put out on time. The FDA is currently 2+ months behind in their decision with HEB on the drug Ampligen.

2. Ampligen has already been approved by the FDA for special cases as it awaits real approval. The FDA told HEB to stop sending safety data in some time ago. So it seems to reason that if their were toxicity issues (most likely reason for denial) they never would have told HEB we do not need more safety data and the FDA would not be delayed 2+ months here.

3. The study data had outstanding results and there is currently nothing else out there ready to combat CFS. If Ampligen is approved, it will receive orphan status and lock everyone else out of this area.

4. The rest of the world is very interested in Ampligen as an adjuvant. HEB has not done human studies for vaccine level approval, but this could be fast-tracked if it is approved for CFS. Japan is currently involved in their own studies with Ampligen and the early results are fantastic. If this hits, Ampligen would be the secret ingredient to be used with virtually any vaccine as it would allow antigens to go a lot farther. The Japan study is showing Ampligen improves things by a factor of 100. No other adjuvant is close.

5. Every day this isn't approved, there is the possibility that it could be halted mid-day or after-hours. This causes a whiplash effect with the price and makes for an easy stock to buy low and sell high with. It's common for the low and high to be 25 to 30 cents a part on most days.

6. Using even the most conservative estimates of say $6.00 on FDA approval or selection from Japan/others as their adjuvant (with associated production deal) and say $0.75 if one of these turns out to be false (not likely to both come crashing down since as I stated before toxicity is not likely an issue). Let's say we put the percentages even at 1/2 for approval and 1/2 for non-approval. This would put "fair value" at around $3.37. It's trading a full dollar below that right now. Personally I would put the value at approval closer to $10 and the percentage of it being approved at 80%. At those levels, fair value is $8.15. Suffice it to say if that is "fair value", there is not a better stock to trade anywhere on the internet since you can add shares at $2.30-2.40 with ease now.

7. This stock is resistant to the overall health of the market/economy, etc. It's value is based on the FDA decision. If you think the market could see a correction soon, this stock is safe to be in. And even if you are a big believer the market is going a lot higher, this stock is safe to be in.

Disclosure: I have 10,000 shares of HEB and will be adding another 10,000 shares today. I am looking to daytrade it between 10,000 and 20,000 shares until we hear from the FDA.

 
David Dodds said:
Serious investor question for everyone:1. From strictly a +EV standpoint, Is there a better stock to have in your portfolio than HEB?
All your reasons are sound. Yes this is a +EV investmnt as the cards read. But at the same time the "it's been 20 years" crowd has a point and that can't be ignored.I'm not sure I could tolerate having $40K-$50K tied up in this, it would be bad for my health. But if you are up $150K for the year and have a business on the side, you are the type of person who can hold this risk.I'll shove all in with an OESFD every day, but just be prepared for the worst.
 
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David Dodds said:
Serious investor question for everyone:1. From strictly a +EV standpoint, Is there a better stock to have in your portfolio than HEB? History shows us that the FDA disapproves drugs on time. CRLs to correct deficiencies are put out on time. The FDA is currently 2+ months behind in their decision with HEB on the drug Ampligen.2. Ampligen has already been approved by the FDA for special cases as it awaits real approval. The FDA told HEB to stop sending safety data in some time ago. So it seems to reason that if their were toxicity issues (most likely reason for denial) they never would have told HEB we do not need more safety data and the FDA would not be delayed 2+ months here.3. The study data had outstanding results and there is currently nothing else out there ready to combat CFS. If Ampligen is approved, it will receive orphan status and lock everyone else out of this area.4. The rest of the world is very interested in Ampligen as an adjuvant. HEB has not done human studies for vaccine level approval, but this could be fast-tracked if it is approved for CFS. Japan is currently involved in their own studies with Ampligen and the early results are fantastic. If this hits, Ampligen would be the secret ingredient to be used with virtually any vaccine as it would allow antigens to go a lot farther. The Japan study is showing Ampligen improves things by a factor of 100. No other adjuvant is close.5. Every day this isn't approved, there is the possibility that it could be halted mid-day or after-hours. This causes a whiplash effect with the price and makes for an easy stock to buy low and sell high with. It's common for the low and high to be 25 to 30 cents a part on most days.6. Using even the most conservative estimates of say $6.00 on FDA approval or selection from Japan/others as their adjuvant (with associated production deal) and say $0.75 if one of these turns out to be false (not likely to both come crashing down since as I stated before toxicity is not likely an issue). Let's say we put the percentages even at 1/2 for approval and 1/2 for non-approval. This would put "fair value" at around $3.37. It's trading a full dollar below that right now. Personally I would put the value at approval closer to $10 and the percentage of it being approved at 80%. At those levels, fair value is $8.15. Suffice it to say if that is "fair value", there is not a better stock to trade anywhere on the internet since you can add shares at $2.30-2.40 with ease now.7. This stock is resistant to the overall health of the market/economy, etc. It's value is based on the FDA decision. If you think the market could see a correction soon, this stock is safe to be in. And even if you are a big believer the market is going a lot higher, this stock is safe to be in. Disclosure: I have 10,000 shares of HEB and will be adding another 10,000 shares today. I am looking to daytrade it between 10,000 and 20,000 shares until we hear from the FDA.
Dodds, I hate you. I swore of HEB yesterday and now I am regretting it. I know for certain that if HEB gets approval it will skyrocket. The way it shot up based on hype for that CC proved to me that it has a loyal following. I am going to set up another account so I can buy 200 shares stick them in their and never have to look at them again. This will be strictly an EV play and that is it. I dont really hate you.
 
David Dodds said:
Serious investor question for everyone:1. From strictly a +EV standpoint, Is there a better stock to have in your portfolio than HEB?
All your reasons are sound. Yes this is a +EV investmnt as the cards read. But at the same time the "it's been 20 years" crowd has a point and that can't be ignored.I'm not sure I could tolerate having $40K-$50K tied up in this, it would be bad for my health. But if you are up $150K for the year and have a business on the side, you are the type of person who can hold this risk.I'll shove all in with an OESFD every day, but just be prepared for the worst.
My understanding on the 20 year thing has to do with the compound change that created Ampligen. Poly IC is where they spent a lot of time. It had promising results, but had toxic issues. Ampligen solves the toxic issues and achieves almost the same level of results. They figured this out about 6 years ago. Since that time, they have gotten this through to stage 3 of the FDA process (which is about right).
 
EXPH is going to open at least 10% of above yesterdays close. I really hope that CC isnt a letdown.
I had orders in 3 times yesterday. Upping my bid each time. Should have just took a market order at the bell, but i tried to be too cute. I have to leave for most of the day and i see its at .02. I'm putting in my order for .018 and maybe it will hit. After doing a little research and homework, I like this one for short term gambling, and even a long term investment.
 
Probably pulled the trigger too early here but I sold 900 CGA @ $10.00 - gain of $1,444.50.

Nice to notch something in the win column for a change!

 
EXPH is going to open at least 10% of above yesterdays close. I really hope that CC isnt a letdown.
I had orders in 3 times yesterday. Upping my bid each time. Should have just took a market order at the bell, but i tried to be too cute. I have to leave for most of the day and i see its at .02. I'm putting in my order for .018 and maybe it will hit. After doing a little research and homework, I like this one for short term gambling, and even a long term investment.
i am sure it will hit. I saw this thing dropping just like HEB before call. I punted. Looking to get back in soon though.
 
EXPH is going to open at least 10% of above yesterdays close. I really hope that CC isnt a letdown.
I had orders in 3 times yesterday. Upping my bid each time. Should have just took a market order at the bell, but i tried to be too cute. I have to leave for most of the day and i see its at .02. I'm putting in my order for .018 and maybe it will hit. After doing a little research and homework, I like this one for short term gambling, and even a long term investment.
i am sure it will hit. I saw this thing dropping just like HEB before call. I punted. Looking to get back in soon though.
Thanks for the tip and i'm glad i'm slow moving this morning. Its at .0164 as we speak. Perhaps i will wait until I get home late this afternoon. Saved me some coin spring, THANKS!!
 
added 10,000 shares of HEB at 2.41. Average of my 20,000 shares is now at 2.40. It might go lower, but I am fine holding at this price.

I have set the following sell prices:

2.50 - sell 5,000

2.55 - sell 5,000

2.65 - sell 5,000

2.75 - sell 5,000

I will buy another 5,000 if it gets to 2.30

 
Added 1,000 PRGN @ $4.25 - looking to daytrade this lot. Target to sell back at $4.50

I'm all onboard the HEB & FREE love train as well.

 
I sat on my PGNE shares and didn't take any profit after the last runup. Shares are back on the rise after news yesterday of well #2.

PrimeGen Energy Corporation (PINKSHEETS: PGNE | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) continues to make rapid progress with the Timan-Pechora Project. This month the company made the important announcement that June production at first Kochmesskoye well totaled 25,200 Barrels of Oil. Now, PrimeGen is reporting successful oil production on its second of the planned 30 well drilling program.Yesterday after the markets closed, the company issued a press release announcing that the Kochmesskoye #2 at Timan-Pechora Project is a producing, commercially viable oil well.The oil well was drilled, cased, completed and stimulated during the past month. This well is the second of the planned 30 well drilling program to be drilled and completed for the Timan-Pechora Project. The operator of the newly producing Kochmesskoye #2 oil well will have a production flow rate report available this week for the Company to announce.Company President Robert Charlton said, "We are very enthusiastic by initial flow indications and look forward to a full report examining the well flow rates later this week."The stock closed yesterday at Nine cents a share.
 

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