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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Good news for CTIC?
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Closing of Registered Offering of $30 Million of Preferred Stock and Warrants
http://investors.celltherapeutics.com/phoe...&highlight=
Cell Therapeutics, Inc. Announces Closing of Registered Offering of $30 Million of Preferred Stock and Warrants
http://investors.celltherapeutics.com/phoe...&highlight=
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
what do you think this will do if it gets priority review status? Think it will really pop?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
so I came across this post on yahoo...
"I owned HGSI, BCRX, VNDA , and alot of other good plays and sold them way to early. I bought an etf "Faz" on a suggested tip. Lost 15k. I think this one will pop so I bought over 4,000 shares for now. We will see good luck."
Which one of you guys is this?
"I owned HGSI, BCRX, VNDA , and alot of other good plays and sold them way to early. I bought an etf "Faz" on a suggested tip. Lost 15k. I think this one will pop so I bought over 4,000 shares for now. We will see good luck."
Which one of you guys is this?
bigfishboy
Footballguy
Das Boot
Footballguy
UNG article, good brief overview:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157796-u-s...ou-need-to-know
Natural Gas on Friday (August 21, 2009) closed at ~$2.80/MMBtu – a 7-year low. If we assume that the price will rise to $5 my mid-November of this year, is UNG (the Natural Gas ETF) a good way to play this increase? Here are the key things to consider:
1. What does the UNG fund contain? Does it own Natural Gas? No. Instead it invests in future contracts and swaps on the NYMEX and ICE exchanges. On August 11th, it owned the September contracts. The September contracts terminate on August 26th. As specified in UNG’s prospectus, it rolls its contracts 2 weeks before termination, over a 4-day period. This means that for the 4-days starting August 12th, it sold its September contracts and bought October contracts. Currently, NatGas future contracts are under severe contango, i.e. the farther out in time you go, the higher the price. The October price for NatGas is $0.42/MMBtu higher than the September price (which is just $0.02 above the spot price, of $2.78). So, the current spot price needs to rise about ~14% to equal the current price of the October NatGas contract, which closed on Friday at $3.22/MMBtu. In a month from now, UNG will have to sell its October contracts and buy November ones. At that time the spot price will be about the same as the October contract price. If we assume that the spot price moves up to $3.22, NatGas is up $0.42, but UNG has not benefited from this, since the October Futures contract has not moved, by our assumption. Is this an isolated occurrence? Will this happen every month over the next 3 months? Look at the future prices. Today (Aug 22, 2009), the December price is ~$5.02/MMBtu.
2. UNG is in a regulatory box. Before July, as the demand for UNG shares increased, UNG’s managers created more UNG shares, and to back them up, they bought more natural gas future contracts and swaps. They did this to keep the price of the shares reflective of the underlying value of the natural gas investments (futures and swaps). If UNG shares traded below the underlying value of the investments, the managers would go into the market and buy back UNG shares (and thereby reduce the outstanding share count), and at the same time sell some of their contracts and swaps. But in early July, UNG hit their maximum share count, 347.4M. They filed to expand this by 1 billion shares, and got permission by the SEC to do so a couple of weeks ago. However, since the CFTC is thinking about imposing restrictions on funds like UNG (because they are neither a consumer nor producer of NatGas), UNG is not creating new shares. In fact, the CFTC may impose restrictions that could force UNG to either resort to offshore trading vehicles or to liquidate the fund.
3. There is a difference between UNG’s market price and its underlying value (NAV, or net asset value). Because of the low price of NatGas, many stock investors have been buying UNG. But because the UNG mgt is not creating more shares, the market price of UNG ($11.35) now differs from the value of its current investments, i.e. its NAV, which is $9.94. Every day UNG management posts its NAV. So UNG is currently selling at a 14% premium over NAV. Should the CFTC allow UNG to continue its strategy (or if UNG can switch to an offshore less regulated exchange, or if UNG management decides to liquidate the fund), then the NAV and market price will align. In this case, UNG longs will suffer a ~12% loss, as the market price drops to NAV.
4. There is a huge supply of NatGas. This could be a long and complex discourse, and quite frankly I don’t fully understand the complete picture. But I do get the Storage situation. For this, simply look at the gov’t/DOE data. Pay particular attention to the chart. Or more simply, there is far more NatGas in storage than in any August in the last 5 years. For a simplistic commentary on this read these New York Times and Bloomberg articles.
Bottom line. I am bullish on the Natural Gas Prices over the long-term, but bearish on UNG.
Disclosure: I am short straddles on UNG (September and October). But I am short ~3X more calls than puts. In other words, I am hoping that UNG stays below ~$12.50/shr. I would prefer to simply short the stock, but cannot get the shares. I would prefer to simply short the stock, but cannot get the shares from Fidelity (even though the short-interest isn’t high – just ~12M shares vs. 347M outstanding).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157796-u-s...ou-need-to-know
Natural Gas on Friday (August 21, 2009) closed at ~$2.80/MMBtu – a 7-year low. If we assume that the price will rise to $5 my mid-November of this year, is UNG (the Natural Gas ETF) a good way to play this increase? Here are the key things to consider:
1. What does the UNG fund contain? Does it own Natural Gas? No. Instead it invests in future contracts and swaps on the NYMEX and ICE exchanges. On August 11th, it owned the September contracts. The September contracts terminate on August 26th. As specified in UNG’s prospectus, it rolls its contracts 2 weeks before termination, over a 4-day period. This means that for the 4-days starting August 12th, it sold its September contracts and bought October contracts. Currently, NatGas future contracts are under severe contango, i.e. the farther out in time you go, the higher the price. The October price for NatGas is $0.42/MMBtu higher than the September price (which is just $0.02 above the spot price, of $2.78). So, the current spot price needs to rise about ~14% to equal the current price of the October NatGas contract, which closed on Friday at $3.22/MMBtu. In a month from now, UNG will have to sell its October contracts and buy November ones. At that time the spot price will be about the same as the October contract price. If we assume that the spot price moves up to $3.22, NatGas is up $0.42, but UNG has not benefited from this, since the October Futures contract has not moved, by our assumption. Is this an isolated occurrence? Will this happen every month over the next 3 months? Look at the future prices. Today (Aug 22, 2009), the December price is ~$5.02/MMBtu.
2. UNG is in a regulatory box. Before July, as the demand for UNG shares increased, UNG’s managers created more UNG shares, and to back them up, they bought more natural gas future contracts and swaps. They did this to keep the price of the shares reflective of the underlying value of the natural gas investments (futures and swaps). If UNG shares traded below the underlying value of the investments, the managers would go into the market and buy back UNG shares (and thereby reduce the outstanding share count), and at the same time sell some of their contracts and swaps. But in early July, UNG hit their maximum share count, 347.4M. They filed to expand this by 1 billion shares, and got permission by the SEC to do so a couple of weeks ago. However, since the CFTC is thinking about imposing restrictions on funds like UNG (because they are neither a consumer nor producer of NatGas), UNG is not creating new shares. In fact, the CFTC may impose restrictions that could force UNG to either resort to offshore trading vehicles or to liquidate the fund.
3. There is a difference between UNG’s market price and its underlying value (NAV, or net asset value). Because of the low price of NatGas, many stock investors have been buying UNG. But because the UNG mgt is not creating more shares, the market price of UNG ($11.35) now differs from the value of its current investments, i.e. its NAV, which is $9.94. Every day UNG management posts its NAV. So UNG is currently selling at a 14% premium over NAV. Should the CFTC allow UNG to continue its strategy (or if UNG can switch to an offshore less regulated exchange, or if UNG management decides to liquidate the fund), then the NAV and market price will align. In this case, UNG longs will suffer a ~12% loss, as the market price drops to NAV.
4. There is a huge supply of NatGas. This could be a long and complex discourse, and quite frankly I don’t fully understand the complete picture. But I do get the Storage situation. For this, simply look at the gov’t/DOE data. Pay particular attention to the chart. Or more simply, there is far more NatGas in storage than in any August in the last 5 years. For a simplistic commentary on this read these New York Times and Bloomberg articles.
Bottom line. I am bullish on the Natural Gas Prices over the long-term, but bearish on UNG.
Disclosure: I am short straddles on UNG (September and October). But I am short ~3X more calls than puts. In other words, I am hoping that UNG stays below ~$12.50/shr. I would prefer to simply short the stock, but cannot get the shares. I would prefer to simply short the stock, but cannot get the shares from Fidelity (even though the short-interest isn’t high – just ~12M shares vs. 347M outstanding).
Otis
Footballguy
I'm steering clear. UNG was nearly the crappy experience FAZ was.In other news, looks like we're opening higher today. Strap in, gents.
The Ref
Footballguy
Yup. 1025 on the S&P on the close Friday and we out of the gate at 1,033 this morning. This is well over the 1,007 high back in November. Correct me if I am wrong but this sets the next high to test of 1,166 back from last Oct?That said, anyone here a little worried that September/October is right around the corner? (The time when most corrections happen).Otis said:I'm steering clear. UNG was nearly the crappy experience FAZ was.In other news, looks like we're opening higher today. Strap in, gents.
Yeah, I have FEED at 4.8. Wondering how far I should push it. I'm thinking I might hold through the day and see if it can push to 5.5 in the next couple days.I
optionmaven
Footballguy
Sort of surprised by the higher opening, even though the futures indicated it. I thought after that short squeeze on friday the shorts would be all out establishing position today. Maybe they are tired of getting the snot kicked out of em.Otis said:
Looks like it is going to do its usual open strong and fall back.Sort of surprised by the higher opening, even though the futures indicated it. I thought after that short squeeze on friday the shorts would be all out establishing position today. Maybe they are tired of getting the snot kicked out of em.Otis said:
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
FBN up over 100% in the last month or so, from around $2.50 to $6.22.
optionmaven
Footballguy
The bull in me is definetley concerned but not as much as I was in June. I'm thinking we get more of a flatline area where it just stagnates for a while. A large percent of my portfolio is filled with sept. options which i will be getting out in the next month regardless. Finger is on the trigger ready to pull if need be.
kaa
Footballguy
Last thing I said was the place to be was bullish on equities, and that commodities were lagging behind. Its been that way ever since.
Yeah, Oil has hit a new high - only $2 higher tho. Gold and silver have been rattling around but doing nothing. I still expect a double dip, but, it may not occur. I'd really rather the market doesn't rally though. There is absolutely no healthy reason for it to do so. It would be a pure federal debt bubble play and nothing more. The US economy still has no fundamental driver for growth.
ODoyleRules
Footballguy
I've been wondering where people keep their cash nowadays. My investment company keeps cash in a Prime Reserve Fund, which for the last year or so has been horrible for obvious reasons. I'm wondering if there are low risk places with higher returns such as bond funds. I'm only looking for a 3 to 5% annual return.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Thinking about taking a gamble on FAZ, anyone with me?
ETA: currently at $22.69
ETA: currently at $22.69
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optionmaven
Footballguy
Global Thermonuclear Warfare?Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I was out S&P 878. I'm still here and my 401K constituted about 1/3 of my exposure to the market. So while the run up has helped my assets, it's true I missed out on that 20% of that 1/3. I can call it right every time it seems. But I still don't trust the economy today and therefore the rally. I hope I'm wrong so that it's good for my business and therefore my money.
Cromedog
Footballguy
Damn...had to leave so set a sell at 5.36 and bust through 5.50...got out too early.
playin4beer
Footballguy
Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEB
Was down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....
edit... $2.13...$2.14..
Was down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....
edit... $2.13...$2.14..
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bigfishboy
Footballguy
I got some of this last week at 1.88. After the slow downhill slide it had, I just wanted out. When I checked L2 this morning I saw a big gap and put in for 1.99 limit sell. It blew by that.Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEBWas down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....edit... $2.13...$2.14..
I still have a little bit of it too.Anyone know why it's up today?I got some of this last week at 1.88. After the slow downhill slide it had, I just wanted out. When I checked L2 this morning I saw a big gap and put in for 1.99 limit sell. It blew by that.Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEBWas down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....edit... $2.13...$2.14..
playin4beer
Footballguy
$2.21I got some of this last week at 1.88. After the slow downhill slide it had, I just wanted out. When I checked L2 this morning I saw a big gap and put in for 1.99 limit sell. It blew by that.Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEBWas down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....edit... $2.13...$2.14..
Holding 1500 shares at $1.94
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bigfishboy
Footballguy
Carter farted into a bottle and is selling it as a cure for cancer.I still have a little bit of it too.Anyone know why it's up today?I got some of this last week at 1.88. After the slow downhill slide it had, I just wanted out. When I checked L2 this morning I saw a big gap and put in for 1.99 limit sell. It blew by that.Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEBWas down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....edit... $2.13...$2.14..
playin4beer
Footballguy
$2.26 now...I don't care if he pissed into a bottle and is selling as the new fountain of youth... just keep climbing...Carter farted into a bottle and is selling it as a cure for cancer.I still have a little bit of it too.Anyone know why it's up today?I got some of this last week at 1.88. After the slow downhill slide it had, I just wanted out. When I checked L2 this morning I saw a big gap and put in for 1.99 limit sell. It blew by that.Well I was going to come in here and cry about every stock being in the green except the craptastic one I'm holding... HEBWas down to $1.86 today.... but just like that, the damn thing pops up to $2.08....edit... $2.13...$2.14..
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I honestly have got to the point I forgot I even own any HEB. I am so tired of it, but I couldnt handle having it get approval and totally miss out so I stashed a hundred shares that will sit until I die or Carter's fart water gets approved.
iowa clubbers
Footballguy
I've got 2000 shares at $2.12. Very nice to see it bump up. Maybe this could be it? Doubtful...Even though it would probably be very smart to sell 1500 shares afterhours now @ $2.27-8. I've held it this long, i'm gonna gamble and see what happens tomorrow. Probably will put a trailing stop on it for 1/2 my shares.ETA: it's at $2.33 now still can't sell AH with it climbing like this...
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David Dodds
Administrator
I mostly have bailed from stocks right now as I am just swamped with the site on so many fronts. With FREE and HEB closing lower by the day, I nearly pulled the trigger dumping both for huge losses. Glad I waited. I dumped HEB at a decent gain today and opted to sell off FREE too (since we are past earnings and I frankly just missied on this stock). Since I last updated I lost $4117, but honestly as bad as things looked for HEB and FRE at times I am ecstatic to be back to all cash.
I doubt I do much of anything until later in the year here. The market feels way overvalued to me all of a sudden. If I was investing I would buy FCG on the dips and ride Natural Gas into the Winter months. I still may do that, but if I do it will be a passive investing approach as I have no time to micro manage things like before.
I will update my wins/losses when I get a chance here. Good luck to everyone else here.
I doubt I do much of anything until later in the year here. The market feels way overvalued to me all of a sudden. If I was investing I would buy FCG on the dips and ride Natural Gas into the Winter months. I still may do that, but if I do it will be a passive investing approach as I have no time to micro manage things like before.
I will update my wins/losses when I get a chance here. Good luck to everyone else here.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
China Mass Media Corp. Announces Transfer of Listing to NYSE
Last update: 8/24/2009 4:54:00 PM
BEIJING, Aug 24, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- China Mass Media Corp. (NYSE Arca: CMM) (the "Company"), a leading television advertising company in China, today announced that it is in the process of transferring the listing of its American Depositary Shares (the "ADSs") from NYSE Arca, Inc. to the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE"). The Company has received a letter from the NYSE authorizing the listing of the ADSs and the trading of the ADSs on the NYSE will begin on August 25, 2009 under its current symbol "CMM."
can anybody shed some insight on this for me?
A quick look at this company and it shows an earnings prediction of .14 cents a share to be announced end of the month. What does this switch mean now though?
Last update: 8/24/2009 4:54:00 PM
BEIJING, Aug 24, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- China Mass Media Corp. (NYSE Arca: CMM) (the "Company"), a leading television advertising company in China, today announced that it is in the process of transferring the listing of its American Depositary Shares (the "ADSs") from NYSE Arca, Inc. to the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE"). The Company has received a letter from the NYSE authorizing the listing of the ADSs and the trading of the ADSs on the NYSE will begin on August 25, 2009 under its current symbol "CMM."
can anybody shed some insight on this for me?
A quick look at this company and it shows an earnings prediction of .14 cents a share to be announced end of the month. What does this switch mean now though?
iowa clubbers
Footballguy
No kidding. Me too.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Yeah, but it's slid like 15% since its peak before the earnings report.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Make it 3.Also, I noticed Halloween stuff going out last week at the local Walgreens. We also got a catalog for kids costumes in the mail Monday.Halloween is 9.5 weeks away. This can't be a good sign for retail can it?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Agree here. Market overvalued right now.
I loaded up on YHOO. I did a quick book value of their company and liked what I saw. For every share outstanding they have abour $10 in value in Chinese internet companies. This is balance sheet income that doesn't show up in earnings. They could sell this for a monster gain.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
Why would you think that?I am still trying to get out at around $4. The lowering BDI and increased competition make me think that this will hit 3.50 long before 4.50. Keep in mind they are authorized to dilute like 100 million more shares. He said that it was dumb to do the first 20 million shares, but they could blindside us with a new dilution. There are oppotunities to buy ships out there if they raise the cash to do it. That would crush this price.Good luck in whatever you decide.
Be careful D, I did this last year and got crushed when Lehman went down. The market's not as volatile as it was last year, so short-term swings are more difficult to time right now.
