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NBA Fanduel (2 Viewers)

Really glad I listened to my gut and went light last night. That could have been ugly. Not a single win. That's two net losses in three days. Didn't realize the extent of CP3's hobble. And the silver lining in yet another GTD mess by the Heat? No Whiteside GTD to tangle with tomorrow. Which is nice.

 
Licking wounds here. Worse back to back nights of the season, down fourteen hundred. Feeling gunshy. I'm busy today and tomorrow so stepping back, even thinking of cashing out again.

 
Sorry to hear, CC. I've cashed out 2/3 of my winnings and considering getting all but what I started with and hitting reset, with a focus on slates without MIA or heavy on blowout potential. Eh, who am I kidding. "I'm gonna kick tomorrow."

ETA: I havn't looked at anything yet today. Always need a few hours the day after loss before even looking in that direction.

 
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Chaos Commish said:
Licking wounds here. Worse back to back nights of the season, down fourteen hundred. Feeling gunshy. I'm busy today and tomorrow so stepping back, even thinking of cashing out again.
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We will blame it on Mike, he needs to get his priorities straight :P I have been doing ok the last couple nights. Not breaking the bank but at least on the positive.

Tonight is definitely looking like a light night for me.

 
Ok, so here is what I have after a few days off, a GPP lineup, not sure I would trust it in cash.

PG - Tony Parker, coming off two strong games so who knows but at $5800 and with San Antonio as the highest scoring team according to Vegas worth a shot.

PG - Norris Cole, Tyreke not playing and at $3800 should give me 20 points

SG - JR Smith

SG - Danny Green

SF - Kawhi Leonard

SF - LeBron James

PF - Anthony Davis, keep riding the big dog and Brooklyn is the worst against PF the last 3 weeks.

PF - ????? I have $4300 who can I play here with upside ?

C - Jordan Hill, center is thin tonight unless you want to pay up.

 
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Hey man. I actually had a good day yesterday, even with Henderson scoring 5. Yesterday not on me. Most other days are though! Lol.

 
Hey guys,

We just updated the lineup optimizer with a bunch of new features:

  • Added ability to upload multiple projections
  • Added ability to calculate weighted average projections
  • Added Pearson Correlation advanced analysis of projections
  • Added actual FP scored after each day’s games
  • Modified default projections to 50% season average FP and 50% last 5 games average FP
  • Added “Like” feature to show which players people like
We're excited about the Pearson Correlation charts because they tell you which projections are more accurate than others.

Here's a link to the site: https://dailyfantasynerd.com

Let me know what you guys think!

 
snellman said:
Westbrook is 13300 tonight. Hard to fade him, but going to be very hard to pay that price.
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I don't know if fading is the right word with this price. Fading seems to imply the player is part of the game but you're avoiding him for some rationale or another. Westbrook's price has made him part of a separate game. You either the play the game that includes him or you play the other game that doesn't.

Fwiw, I made three LUs at DK last night just to see how they'd do. One would have cashed in 50-50s, the other two not so much. I am ice cold.

 
SwampDawg said:
Ok, so here is what I have after a few days off, a GPP lineup, not sure I would trust it in cash.

PG - Tony Parker, coming off two strong games so who knows but at $5800 and with San Antonio as the highest scoring team according to Vegas worth a shot.

PG - Norris Cole, Tyreke not playing and at $3800 should give me 20 points

SG - JR Smith

SG - Danny Green

SF - Kawhi Leonard

SF - LeBron James

PF - Anthony Davis, keep riding the big dog and Brooklyn is the worst against PF the last 3 weeks.

PF - ????? I have $4300 who can I play here with upside ?

C - Jordan Hill, center is thin tonight unless you want to pay up.
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Had my highest score yet last night with this team, ended up putting Amir Johnson and his 38.3 points in the open PF spot to total 334.4. The bad news is I put it in a $1 GPP at work and planned on add some double up and 100 player tournaments at home and then got hijacked by the kids with stuff and never got it in anywhere else :( Oh well, won $5 and have the satisfaction that it was a lineup I did totally on my own.

 
SwampDawg said:
SwampDawg said:
Ok, so here is what I have after a few days off, a GPP lineup, not sure I would trust it in cash.

PG - Tony Parker, coming off two strong games so who knows but at $5800 and with San Antonio as the highest scoring team according to Vegas worth a shot.

PG - Norris Cole, Tyreke not playing and at $3800 should give me 20 points

SG - JR Smith

SG - Danny Green

SF - Kawhi Leonard

SF - LeBron James

PF - Anthony Davis, keep riding the big dog and Brooklyn is the worst against PF the last 3 weeks.

PF - ????? I have $4300 who can I play here with upside ?

C - Jordan Hill, center is thin tonight unless you want to pay up.
Click to expand...
Had my highest score yet last night with this team, ended up putting Amir Johnson and his 38.3 points in the open PF spot to total 334.4. The bad news is I put it in a $1 GPP at work and planned on add some double up and 100 player tournaments at home and then got hijacked by the kids with stuff and never got it in anywhere else :( Oh well, won $5 and have the satisfaction that it was a lineup I did totally on my own.
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Nice work and sorry about the kids. On the west coast the late breaking news and after school scrambling all happens at the same time, so this has happened to me several times.

 
Timmay said:
Will Westbrook meet value tonight? He only needs 65+.
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He's about as matchup proof as anyone I've seen play this year, but Paul can be the best point defender on the planet at times. He recently held Lillard without a single hoop for four quarters. But still, fade at your own risk.

 
Good job, Swamp. My core was similar. Cole/Parker, Lebron/Kawhi, Brow, Stucky.

Primary ended up 334, second 348. The second was my favorite too, but couldn't bring myself to load up on Cole Aldridge.

 
Chaos Commish said:
Timmay said:
Will Westbrook meet value tonight? He only needs 65+.
Click to expand...
He's about as matchup proof as anyone I've seen play this year, but Paul can be the best point defender on the planet at times. He recently held Lillard without a single hoop for four quarters. But still, fade at your own risk.
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I'm not fading Westbrook, I'm fading his price. If he puts up just 55, you're screwed.

Two value PGs I have my eye on going against the grain: Schroeder at 5000 who's been hitting 24-34 the past 5 games.

Brooks at 4800 has been solid last two and now plays the Sixers.

 
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First crack at a lineup with Westbrook. Was actually able to stack Harden with him and it doesn't look terrible:

PG Russell Westbrook
OKC v LAC
PG Ishmael Smith
PHI v CHI
SG J.J. Redick
LAC @ OKC
SG James Harden
HOU @ POR
SF P.J. Tucker
PHO v MIN
SF Michael Beasley
MIA v BKN
PF Markieff Morris
PHO v MIN
PF Ersan Ilyasova
MIL v ORL
C Andrew Bogut
GS v DET
 
Apple Jack said:
Why are you screwed if Westbrook puts up 55?

Spoelstra at it again.
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55 points at $13.3k salary is a multiplier of about 4.13x. Or, speaking in Mike's math, its 266 dollars per point.

Averaged over your total salary cap of 60k puts that at 248, which wouldn't cash on almost any night. Basically you need 60+. But he does hit tourney value at 66+, which he's definitely proved capable of doing.

Westbrook fade:

Schroeder, Brooks

Bledsoe, Reddick

Wiggins, Ariza

Ibaka, Millsap

Horford

 
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If you aren't taking Westbrook don't you have to roll with Harden?

Suns have been a mess recently really hard to trust Bledsoe, but with Knight out he should get plenty of minutes.

 
Anyone know what happened with Reggie Jackson last night? Had him in the 150K GPP along with Aminu last night and still scored 274, any help from him and this LU would have cashed. I know Aminu got hurt early but can't find anything on Jackson

 
Megla said:
Anyone know what happened with Reggie Jackson last night? Had him in the 150K GPP along with Aminu last night and still scored 274, any help from him and this LU would have cashed. I know Aminu got hurt early but can't find anything on Jackson
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Off night. SVG pulled him for Dinwiddie.

ETA: 1-9, five TOs.

 
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karmarooster said:
Apple Jack said:
Why are you screwed if Westbrook puts up 55?

Spoelstra at it again.
Click to expand...
55 points at $13.3k salary is a multiplier of about 4.13x. Or, speaking in Mike's math, its 266 dollars per point.

Averaged over your total salary cap of 60k puts that at 248, which wouldn't cash on almost any night. Basically you need 60+. But he does hit tourney value at 66+, which he's definitely proved capable of doing.

Westbrook fade:

Schroeder, Brooks

Bledsoe, Reddick

Wiggins, Ariza

Ibaka, Millsap

Horford
Click to expand...
Not far of you but not sure i love it.

Schroder/Canaan

Harden/Redick

Middleton/Wiggins

Milsap/Marvin Williams

M.Gasol

 
With the news Marcus Morris will start I have this Westy LU

West/Schroder

Barton/Redick

Chandler/Carroll

Morris/Faried

Horford

Westy FadeLU

Schroder/Goodwin

Harden/Barton

Batum/Ariza

Morris/Aldridge

Jordan

 
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Westbrook has a poor track record against CP3, but CP3 isn't 100% with his knee injury. Westbrook looks like a decent play on DK but his price is insane on FD. It's literally a new tier of play...if mid tier is 6-8k and studs are 8-11k...what the hell is 13.3k? Godzilla?

 
rdubs30 said:
Westbrook has a poor track record against CP3, but CP3 isn't 100% with his knee injury. Westbrook looks like a decent play on DK but his price is insane on FD. It's literally a new tier of play...if mid tier is 6-8k and studs are 8-11k...what the hell is 13.3k? Godzilla?
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Someone with better research skills than I should go back and look to see when the last time someone had a run like this. I am guessing it was Jordan before Pippen was Pippen.

 
....ok, so Mike has Westbrook under $200 per point, putting up a 70, hitting solid value even at 13.3k.

Extrapolated to your full 60k salary, that would put you at 315.

 
On top of my aversion to fading him on spec, unless FD decides to let us roster six PFs I can't for the life of me put together a fade-westy lu that doesn't leave a small fortune on the table.

At least MIA news is out.
 
msudaisy26 said:
rdubs30 said:
Westbrook has a poor track record against CP3, but CP3 isn't 100% with his knee injury. Westbrook looks like a decent play on DK but his price is insane on FD. It's literally a new tier of play...if mid tier is 6-8k and studs are 8-11k...what the hell is 13.3k? Godzilla?
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Someone with better research skills than I should go back and look to see when the last time someone had a run like this. I am guessing it was Jordan before Pippen was Pippen.
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Four trip-dubs in a row was most since MJ. Wilt has the record with nine. Also learned, is that Wilt once had 227 straight double-doubles. That's the record. He also has the 2nd and 3rd longest streaks, at 220 and 133. :lmao:

 
Well the officials and statkeepers are sure trying to help Russell, but Paul (w/help) is going to keep him below value... barring an insane 4th quarter. Through three quarters Paul has outplayed Westbrook, substantially.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Weird night. I lost 12 dollars and feel great about it.
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Feel you there. I was on an insane hot streak in February. Now I'm on an Arctic cold streak...can't remember having such a huge swing in my 2 years of playing DFS. DFS is a fickle beast.

Edit: Oh yeah, I guess this will be my first post about football. During my cold streak, my favorite football player (Patrick Willis) retired at the age of 30. March has been unkind. Back to the dark ages for the 9ers...

 
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It was a weird night. I finished up and I'm pretty sure all the teams that cashed had both Westbrook and Beasley. Also, the Shot 2 had the biggest overlay I've seen. Only 800 or so entires out of 1400+. Spotted it at the last second and was only able to get five entries in.

 
Dipped a toe in these icy waters for two whole dollars. One at each site. Out of 120 entries in an FD 50-50, I finished 83rd. I wasn't that good at DK. :lol:

There's a theory I've touched on here that this gets harder as the season progresses. I have no idea if it is the reason for this, but I'm glad I haven't made some ill-conceived attempt to recover recent losses. Having a first look at this slate now.

The odds.

If you trust the thinking behind my approach, then you have to feature Cleveland/SA players. Pick 'em game with by far the highest total. I'm trying to give away Knicks Lakers seats tonight but there's a decent chance I'll be at Staples. You'd think I was offering people pneumonia. Anyway, that seems like the next game on the slate to get a couple right from and we shoud be good for cash games, right? :excited:

 
Having some trouble getting exposed to that Cleveland SA game. Parker seems like the only decent value. The others price my LUs into reaches and punts that are not comfortable. Kahwi vs LeBron is an interesting battle. Few expected Paul to do what he did against Westbrook last night, and like him, at times there's no better defender of his postion than Leonard. Duncan is toughing out an elbow hyper-extension. Love is schizo on the road. Kyrie has been playing team ball at the expense of stats. The periphery players seem to have better options in other games. I think another $2 might be too rich for my blood.

 
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Chaos Commish said:
Having some trouble getting exposed to that Cleveland SA game. Parker seems like the only decent value. The others price my LUs into reaches and punts that are not comfortable. Kahwi vs LeBron is an interesting battle. Few expected Paul to do what he did against Westbrook last night, and like him, at times there's no better defender of his postion than Leonard. Duncan is toughing out an elbow hyper-extension. Love is schizo on the road. Kyrie has been playing team ball at the expense of stats. The periphery players seem to have better options in other games. I think another $2 might be too rich for my blood.
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If there is one thing DFS has taught me the past 3 years. It is to never ever trust anyone on the Spurs outside of Kawhi.

 
Timmay said:
Chaos Commish said:
Having some trouble getting exposed to that Cleveland SA game. Parker seems like the only decent value. The others price my LUs into reaches and punts that are not comfortable. Kahwi vs LeBron is an interesting battle. Few expected Paul to do what he did against Westbrook last night, and like him, at times there's no better defender of his postion than Leonard. Duncan is toughing out an elbow hyper-extension. Love is schizo on the road. Kyrie has been playing team ball at the expense of stats. The periphery players seem to have better options in other games. I think another $2 might be too rich for my blood.
Click to expand...
If there is one thing DFS has taught me the past 3 years. It is to never ever trust anyone on the Spurs outside of Kawhi.
Click to expand...
I've done fine this year with Duncan (earlier) and Parker (recently) when they were right. I think the popping of LUs lends itself to the fear, and that's not an issue tonight. Kawhi has had himself some terrible stretches this year too. He and Parker are in an initial LU atm, but I'm not loving it.

 
I did an all night that used Udrich, Leuer and Mahimni as punts to stack Parker Harden Danny Green LeBron Kawhi T Jones. Got to 300 and cashed in two double ups and a triple up. Best I have scored in about a week.

 
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