*NBA THREAD* Abe will be missed (5 Viewers)

[matuski]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

Yup. The much better way to attack it is to say that you know what is going on inside a players head.

Exactly. We know Lebron and Kobe deal with elevated pressure day in and day out. They maintain elite performance throughout it all (ie we know they can handle it). Blake, not so much.I'll take the pressure hardened all time great over a guy off the bench.

Really? We have plenty of statistics (If you want to check back a couple pages Ferris laid them all out) that show Kobe does not perform well in the clutch, especially last second shots. Should I attribute this drop in performance due to the pressure getting to him?

Can you show some examples of Blake not maintaining his performance level in clutch situations?

Now you are getting it. Pressure effects everyone. I want the guy for whom the last shot of the game is an incremental amount of pressure, not the guy off the bench.

No offense, but you repeatedly come back making this harder than it is. Go nuts digging up Steve Blake last second shot stats, I'm comfortable with common sense.

eta - I just read the subtitle and realized im talking to a Kobe hater. That says it all.

 

[the moops]

I'm comfortable with common sense.

If there is anything we have learned about you, it is the complete opposite of that sentence

 

[GroveDiesel]

I agree with those saying you'd rather have your big gun(s) take the final shot even if it's difficult versus some scrub taking a wide open shot. Of course, Michael Jordan was nice enough that I got to experience both versions in the Jazz Finals.

Jordan made a lot of clutch shots, but people tend to forget how many game winners guys like Kerr and Paxton made as well. Those guys hit quite a few big game winning 3s.

 

[matuski]

I'm comfortable with common sense.

If there is anything we have learned about you, it is the complete opposite of that sentence

We've all had our moments. Right Starbury?

 

[Cliff Clavin]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

Yup. The much better way to attack it is to say that you know what is going on inside a players head.

Exactly. We know Lebron and Kobe deal with elevated pressure day in and day out. They maintain elite performance throughout it all (ie we know they can handle it). Blake, not so much.I'll take the pressure hardened all time great over a guy off the bench.

Really? We have plenty of statistics (If you want to check back a couple pages Ferris laid them all out) that show Kobe does not perform well in the clutch, especially last second shots. Should I attribute this drop in performance due to the pressure getting to him?

Can you show some examples of Blake not maintaining his performance level in clutch situations?

Now you are getting it. Pressure effects everyone. I want the guy for whom the last shot of the game is an incremental amount of pressure, not the guy off the bench.

No offense, but you repeatedly come back making this harder than it is. Go nuts digging up Steve Blake last second shot stats, I'm comfortable with common sense. I'll leave you with that.

eta - I just read the subtitle and realized im talking to a Kobe hater. That says it all.

Yeah, I don't like Kobe but nothing I've said about his last second shots are wrong. Please go ahead and point out any incorrect statements (although I'm sure you would have by now if there were any).Regardless, continue to ignore all statistics which tell you you are wrong about the hero shot and keep using your "common sense". Good luck!

 

[the moops]

I'm comfortable with common sense.

If there is anything we have learned about you, it is the complete opposite of that sentence

We've all had our moments. Right Starbury?

Indeed.

 

[hxperson]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that. Most here are objecting to the notion that role players feel so much more pressure than a super star player that a role player would blow a wide open shot while the super star should be able to hit a tough shot against double or triple coverage.

 

[tommyGunZ]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

Feel free to back your argument with data of your own. However, appealing to reason without support is a losing argument. None of us have any idea what NBA players think or feel in the closing moments of any game or any playoff game. No clue. So there is no way any of us can apply "reason" or "common sense" in this discussion, because none of us have any basis to do so. You need to find another way to support your argument.

I don't know of any source that isolates data in a manner that would accurately illustrate all of the dynamics involved in last second, game deciding shots. The data you and Ferris trumpet certainly doesn't. I don't think that data exists, or is measurable. Again, I'm a stat geek. I love advanced statistics and think that the front offices that have embraced James' type analysis are light years ahead of those who don't, in all sports. But the idea that data is infallible and ignoring dynamics that are not captured is where you and Ferris and I disagree. The closer analysis in baseball is the best analogy I can make.

 

[Instinctive]

Matuski being made to look all sorts of stupid in here...no wonder he hasn't appeared all season...

 

[TobiasFunke]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

Feel free to back your argument with data of your own. However, appealing to reason without support is a losing argument. None of us have any idea what NBA players think or feel in the closing moments of any game or any playoff game. No clue. So there is no way any of us can apply "reason" or "common sense" in this discussion, because none of us have any basis to do so. You need to find another way to support your argument.

I don't know of any source that isolates data in a manner that would accurately illustrate all of the dynamics involved in last second, game deciding shots. The data you and Ferris trumpet certainly doesn't. I don't think that data exists, or is measurable. Again, I'm a stat geek. I love advanced statistics and think that the front offices that have embraced James' type analysis are light years ahead of those who don't, in all sports. But the idea that data is infallible and ignoring dynamics that are not captured is where you and Ferris and I disagree. The closer analysis in baseball is the best analogy I can make.

I'm willing to try to do this. How would you describe the dynamics? What would you want to isolate?One problem I've encountered is that basketball reference's "shot finder" doesn't seem to have aggregate data over lots of seasons, it requires you to narrow the search to a single season. Anyone know how to use shot finder to look at data over multiple seasons?

I also think you're not really accurately representing the argument. I don't think anyone considers the data infallible, certainly not with respect to a sport like basketball. The value of stat analysis is that data has perfect recall and is free of bias. That doesn't make it perfect, it just makes it light years better than any other type of analysis.

 

[Kev4029]

Its funny that the two Lakers that have been considered clutch for the last decade are the two of least effective players in the clutch.

11-12

10-11

I think its pretty incredible that the media can drum up this idea of clutch and pick and choose who they (the media as a whole but especially ESPN) deem to be clutch with little factual basis. The fact that Lebron has been far better in pressure situations on the whole than Kobe doesn't matter, the media has created Kobe-The Most Clutch Player Since Jordan and Lebron-The Biggest Superstar Choker Ever with nothing to back it up. People just end up buying into this stuff because they are told to believe it enough times. The average fan has been brainwashed.

I noticed this with Billups when he was a Nugget as well. The dude is nicknamed Mr. Big Shot but was absolutely terrible for the Nuggets late in games constantly taking ill advised shots. I think this stuff starts getting to player's heads eventually too. If you tell Fisher or Kobe or Billups that they are superhuman late in games enough times they'll start to believe it and they end up with tunnel vision at the end of games taking poor shots because they are convinced that they are better than the rest of the team.

 

[tommyGunZ]

it's not a stretch to say that performance can suffer in pressure situations, or that some people handle pressure better than others.

I didn't think this was a revelation until I came here this morning.

Never underestimate the ability of the data-trumps-reason crowd to find examples of Mike Bibby making a layup with 1:56 left in a close game and use it to suggest role players don't feel pressure on game deciding shots.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that. Most here are objecting to the notion that role players feel so much more pressure than a super star player that a role player would blow a wide open shot while the super star should be able to hit a tough shot against double or triple coverage.

In fairness, making jump shots in the context of an NBA game is difficult as it is, so I wouldn't characterize role players missing wide open shots as "blowing" them. Simply looking at FG's made vs. FG's missed in the final seconds is a distortion of all of the possible outcomes in play. It ignores a player's individual ability to get his own shot off under distressed circumstances when defensive intensity peaks. When all we're looking at is makes vs. misses, we're oversimplifying a very complex game. The "I'd rather give it to a wide open guy" crowd seems unable to comprehend the fact that defenses don't leave anyone wide open at the end of games, unless attention is diverted elsewhere. And what constitutes "wide open"? It's virtually impossible to quantify such a thing, because "wide open" to one guy means "slightly contested" to another. And "contested" may mean that a defender is crowding a player, but if the shooter pump fakes the defender and is able to get off a clean shot with marginal chances of a blocked shot, is that "wide open" even though a defender was on top of him?

 

[Gr00vus]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

 

[the moops]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

 

[the moops]

Man, watching that replay again. Kobe really acts like a ##### on that last play.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Its funny that the two Lakers that have been considered clutch for the last decade are the two of least effective players in the clutch.

11-12

10-11

I think its pretty incredible that the media can drum up this idea of clutch and pick and choose who they (the media as a whole but especially ESPN) deem to be clutch with little factual basis. The fact that Lebron has been far better in pressure situations on the whole than Kobe doesn't matter, the media has created Kobe-The Most Clutch Player Since Jordan and Lebron-The Biggest Superstar Choker Ever with nothing to back it up. People just end up buying into this stuff because they are told to believe it enough times. The average fan has been brainwashed.

I noticed this with Billups when he was a Nugget as well. The dude is nicknamed Mr. Big Shot but was absolutely terrible for the Nuggets late in games constantly taking ill advised shots. I think this stuff starts getting to player's heads eventually too. If you tell Fisher or Kobe or Billups that they are superhuman late in games enough times they'll start to believe it and they end up with tunnel vision at the end of games taking poor shots because they are convinced that they are better than the rest of the team.

Those of us who want the best player taking the last shot don't believe that there is some magical fairy dust that Kobe/MJ/Bird have that the rest of the NBA doesn't. Are there any scenarios worse than a missed shot at in the final seconds of an NBA game? Are those scenarios accounted for in the clutch stats you cite?

 

[Gr00vus]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?

sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

You're right in general, but Bynum had Perkins totally sealed and was right at the basket - if the pass is on they money Bynum's going straight up and it's just a question of whether it's a dunk, an and one or two free throws. Blake never even looked at him. Pause the video at the 3 second mark, right when Blake catches the inbounds and look at the position Bynum has and the clear throwing lane Blake has to get it to him.

 

[tommyGunZ]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Man, watching that replay again. Kobe really acts like a ##### on that last play.

 

[Gr00vus]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

This is true, and Blake's had his problems. I still would rather have seen him attempt shifting it inside for a higher percentage shot at the rim.

 

[the moops]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

This is true, and Blake's had his problems. I still would rather have seen him attempt shifting it inside for a higher percentage shot at the rim.

That pass gets deflected and everyone is #####ing about a 3 point shooter not taking a wide open 3 point shot.

 

[Gr00vus]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

This is true, and Blake's had his problems. I still would rather have seen him attempt shifting it inside for a higher percentage shot at the rim.

That pass gets deflected and everyone is #####ing about a 3 point shooter not taking a wide open 3 point shot.

True. I still prefer it. I realize it's hindsight and would have required good court vision, split second decision making and competency at passing - but I feel like I should expect that from an NBA point guard. And like Rudnicki pointed out - they only needed 2, or 1 for that matter. Get it inside if you have the opportunity, more good things possible that way.

 

[tommyGunZ]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

This is true, and Blake's had his problems. I still would rather have seen him attempt shifting it inside for a higher percentage shot at the rim.

I feel you. In hindsight, I'd love to see Blake whip it to Bynum as soon as Bynum breaks open. In game situations like this though, few passes generally = better (IMO), so I don't fault Steve for taking the shot. He did exactly what he was supposed to do. Sometimes they fall, sometimes they don't. Kobe lost the game with his 2 terrible TO's and that ill advised 3 with the Lakers up 1 with ~ 35 ticks left.

 

[timschochet]

OK. Last night was depressing, but I'm over it. Taking this one game at a time. The formula the Lakers used last night is a good one, and they just need to keep at it. We're going to win game 3. Then we'll see about game 4.

 

[the moops]

OK. Last night was depressing, but I'm over it. Taking this one game at a time. The formula the Lakers used last night is a good one, and they just need to keep at it. We're going to win game 3. Then we'll see about game 4.

Good luck to you and your teammates timmy

 

[TobiasFunke]

when you're down 1 point, why take a 3pt shot there?sure, it was a good look but that wasn't exactly a high percentage play.

It would have been a long pass, but Blake did have a lane to get the ball to Bynum 0 feet away from the basket in perfect position rather than Blake shooting the 3. That's what I'd like to have seen attempted.

The problem with going into the post with 3 or 4 seconds left is that the double team comes immediately and there is no time to dish it out to the open guy.

Additionally, each additional pass carries increased risk. See Kobe's complete ####### meltdown both trying to pass and catch the ####### basketball in the last 2 minutes.

This is true, and Blake's had his problems. I still would rather have seen him attempt shifting it inside for a higher percentage shot at the rim.

That pass gets deflected and everyone is #####ing about a 3 point shooter not taking a wide open 3 point shot.

True. I still prefer it. I realize it's hindsight and would have required good court vision, split second decision making and competency at passing - but I feel like I should expect that from an NBA point guard.

A pass also would have eliminated the possibility of an offensive rebound/putback off a missed shot. 25-30% rebounds to the offense x approximately 40-50% FG shooting on putback attempts equals an extra 10-15% chance of winning if you shoot with time on the clock for a rebound and putback. No way a pass to the interior followed by a contested shot improves on Blake's chances on a wide open J by that much. Even if you account for the increased possibility of a trip to the line.The Lakers made the right play on the final play. Sometimes the shot just doesn't fall.

 

[Gr00vus]

I feel you. In hindsight, I'd love to see Blake whip it to Bynum as soon as Bynum breaks open. In game situations like this though, few passes generally = better (IMO), so I don't fault Steve for taking the shot. He did exactly what he was supposed to do. Sometimes they fall, sometimes they don't. Kobe lost the game with his 2 terrible TO's and that ill advised 3 with the Lakers up 1 with ~ 35 ticks left.

All you say is true. I don't blame Blake for taking the shot either, I'd just rather have the pass inside, and further, of the 5 guys the Lakers had on the court, he's option 4 - so there's a coaching failure aspect to this as well, though I guess most coaches would be happy they drew something up that got any kind of open look in that situation. As you indicate, it should never have come to that anyway.

 

[timschochet]

OK. Last night was depressing, but I'm over it. Taking this one game at a time. The formula the Lakers used last night is a good one, and they just need to keep at it. We're going to win game 3. Then we'll see about game 4.

Good luck to you and your teammates timmy

Thanks!

 

[tommyGunZ]

OK. Last night was depressing, but I'm over it. Taking this one game at a time. The formula the Lakers used last night is a good one, and they just need to keep at it. We're going to win game 3. Then we'll see about game 4.

I'm trying to remain optimistic, but giving a game away in a 7 game series is virtual death for the underdog. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Gr00vus]

A pass also would have eliminated the possibility of an offensive rebound/putback off a missed shot. 25-30% rebounds to the offense x approximately 40-50% FG shooting on putback attempts equals an extra 10-15% chance of winning if you shoot with time on the clock for a rebound and putback. No way a pass to the interior followed by a contested shot improves on Blake's chances on a wide open J by that much. Even if you account for the increased possibility of a trip to the line.

Disagree on everything you say here. Dude's at the rim either dunking or laying it in - there's much more chance of the ball staying in reach than there is of boarding a 3 pointer (as displayed exactly by last night's long carom play). Blake caught it with 5 seconds, passing it to Bynum and Bynum going up immediately right at the rack - he's either scoring or getting fouled - but there'd still be at least 3 seconds, plenty of time for a tip in or board for a shot around the rim. When all you need is 1 point the chances of drawing a foul are a huge advantage for taking a shot inside.

 

[Kev4029]

Those of us who want the best player taking the last shot don't believe that there is some magical fairy dust that Kobe/MJ/Bird have that the rest of the NBA doesn't. Are there any scenarios worse than a missed shot at in the final seconds of an NBA game? Are those scenarios accounted for in the clutch stats you cite?

Sure, turnovers are a worse scenario than a missed shot and I think Kobe's ability to get a decent shot off in tight coverage probably lowers his FG% late in games because he can get a better looking shot than the rest of the team if the defense is tight. But I don't think anybody would fault Kobe for taking a tough shot when the team needs it, the problem is he gets tunnel vision looking for any shot when occasionally teammates are open. A forced jumper in tight coverage from Kobe is probably the best look for any player ever who is forcing a jumper in tight coverage, but that accuracy of that shot is much less than a wide open jumper from somebody who's only worth in the NBA is hitting those shots. In the last few seconds you should never second guess an open jump shot from a jump shooter. It is highly unlikely that you would get a better shot and those are the exact shots guys like Blake and Chalmers are paid to hit. When the league average is 29% on last second shots, a shot with a 40% chance of going in is an incredible look.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Those of us who want the best player taking the last shot don't believe that there is some magical fairy dust that Kobe/MJ/Bird have that the rest of the NBA doesn't.

Are there any scenarios worse than a missed shot at in the final seconds of an NBA game? Are those scenarios accounted for in the clutch stats you cite?

Sure, turnovers are a worse scenario than a missed shot and I think Kobe's ability to get a decent shot off in tight coverage probably lowers his FG% late in games because he can get a better looking shot than the rest of the team if the defense is tight. But I don't think anybody would fault Kobe for taking a tough shot when the team needs it, the problem is he gets tunnel vision looking for any shot when occasionally teammates are open. A forced jumper in tight coverage from Kobe is probably the best look for any player ever who is forcing a jumper in tight coverage, but that accuracy of that shot is much less than a wide open jumper from somebody who's only worth in the NBA is hitting those shots. In the last few seconds you should never second guess an open jump shot from a jump shooter. It is highly unlikely that you would get a better shot and those are the exact shots guys like Blake and Chalmers are paid to hit. When the league average is 29% on last second shots, a shot with a 40% chance of going in is an incredible look.

I don't believe game winning 3's from Steve Blake have a 40% chance of going in.

 

[TobiasFunke]

A pass also would have eliminated the possibility of an offensive rebound/putback off a missed shot. 25-30% rebounds to the offense x approximately 40-50% FG shooting on putback attempts equals an extra 10-15% chance of winning if you shoot with time on the clock for a rebound and putback. No way a pass to the interior followed by a contested shot improves on Blake's chances on a wide open J by that much. Even if you account for the increased possibility of a trip to the line.

Disagree on everything you say here. Dude's at the rim either dunking or laying it in - there's much more chance of the ball staying in reach than there is of boarding a 3 pointer (as displayed exactly by last night's long carom play). Blake caught it with 5 seconds, passing it to Bynum and Bynum going up immediately right at the rack - he's either scoring or getting fouled - but there'd still be at least 3 seconds, plenty of time for a tip in or board for a shot around the rim. When all you need is 1 point the chances of drawing a foul are a huge advantage for taking a shot inside.

Did Bynum really have that clear of a look? I was speaking more generally about just sending a pass into the post.

 

[Kev4029]

Those of us who want the best player taking the last shot don't believe that there is some magical fairy dust that Kobe/MJ/Bird have that the rest of the NBA doesn't.

Are there any scenarios worse than a missed shot at in the final seconds of an NBA game? Are those scenarios accounted for in the clutch stats you cite?

Sure, turnovers are a worse scenario than a missed shot and I think Kobe's ability to get a decent shot off in tight coverage probably lowers his FG% late in games because he can get a better looking shot than the rest of the team if the defense is tight. But I don't think anybody would fault Kobe for taking a tough shot when the team needs it, the problem is he gets tunnel vision looking for any shot when occasionally teammates are open. A forced jumper in tight coverage from Kobe is probably the best look for any player ever who is forcing a jumper in tight coverage, but that accuracy of that shot is much less than a wide open jumper from somebody who's only worth in the NBA is hitting those shots. In the last few seconds you should never second guess an open jump shot from a jump shooter. It is highly unlikely that you would get a better shot and those are the exact shots guys like Blake and Chalmers are paid to hit. When the league average is 29% on last second shots, a shot with a 40% chance of going in is an incredible look.

I don't believe game winning 3's from Steve Blake have a 40% chance of going in.

It wasn't any 3, it was a wide open three from the corner with perfectly set feet. The only thing that would have made it easier would have been if it were an inside-out shot, but I don't think that would make a huge difference considering the pass he did get was pretty much right in his shooting motion. I thought 40% was a pretty conservative estimate.

 

[matuski]

Those of us who want the best player taking the last shot don't believe that there is some magical fairy dust that Kobe/MJ/Bird have that the rest of the NBA doesn't.

Are there any scenarios worse than a missed shot at in the final seconds of an NBA game? Are those scenarios accounted for in the clutch stats you cite?

Sure, turnovers are a worse scenario than a missed shot and I think Kobe's ability to get a decent shot off in tight coverage probably lowers his FG% late in games because he can get a better looking shot than the rest of the team if the defense is tight. But I don't think anybody would fault Kobe for taking a tough shot when the team needs it, the problem is he gets tunnel vision looking for any shot when occasionally teammates are open. A forced jumper in tight coverage from Kobe is probably the best look for any player ever who is forcing a jumper in tight coverage, but that accuracy of that shot is much less than a wide open jumper from somebody who's only worth in the NBA is hitting those shots. In the last few seconds you should never second guess an open jump shot from a jump shooter. It is highly unlikely that you would get a better shot and those are the exact shots guys like Blake and Chalmers are paid to hit. When the league average is 29% on last second shots, a shot with a 40% chance of going in is an incredible look.

I don't believe game winning 3's from Steve Blake have a 40% chance of going in.

It wasn't any 3, it was a wide open three from the corner with perfectly set feet. The only thing that would have made it easier would have been if it were an inside-out shot, but I don't think that would make a huge difference considering the pass he did get was pretty much right in his shooting motion. I thought 40% was a pretty conservative estimate.

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

 

[Kev4029]

A pass also would have eliminated the possibility of an offensive rebound/putback off a missed shot. 25-30% rebounds to the offense x approximately 40-50% FG shooting on putback attempts equals an extra 10-15% chance of winning if you shoot with time on the clock for a rebound and putback. No way a pass to the interior followed by a contested shot improves on Blake's chances on a wide open J by that much. Even if you account for the increased possibility of a trip to the line.

Disagree on everything you say here. Dude's at the rim either dunking or laying it in - there's much more chance of the ball staying in reach than there is of boarding a 3 pointer (as displayed exactly by last night's long carom play). Blake caught it with 5 seconds, passing it to Bynum and Bynum going up immediately right at the rack - he's either scoring or getting fouled - but there'd still be at least 3 seconds, plenty of time for a tip in or board for a shot around the rim. When all you need is 1 point the chances of drawing a foul are a huge advantage for taking a shot inside.

Did Bynum really have that clear of a look? I was speaking more generally about just sending a pass into the post.

It would have been a tough play. -Blake was wide open and was looking for the shot because of that.-To change his motion from shooting to passing as he was going up for the shot would have been a risky proposition as you never really see him do that, so it probably wouldn't have looked pretty. -Bynum was basically posted up under the corner of the backboard which would have made for a fairly tricky pass to the post and he would have probably had to jump back into Perkins to get the ball towards the hoop. -By the time the shot had gone up Perkins had pushed Bynum from where he was trying to post up.-Perkins is a pretty stout defender down low, even with great position for Bynum a shot in the low post would not be a gimmie.The three was the best look the Lakers were getting in the last 6 seconds.

 

[the moops]

I don't believe game winning 3's from Steve Blake have a 40% chance of going in.

He hasn't taken enough of them to really draw any conclusion. But why would he have to make it at a 40% clip? We are looking at being just a better chance than Kobe making his shot, right?Blake shot 30% (46-152)from three point line with less than 2 minutes to go in regulation or overtime. I can't imagine too many of those were wide open looks like he had last night though.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Never thought I'd see Gunz turn on Kobe while he was still an active member of the Lakers.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,
(that was actually Opening Night on national TV. Before that he was the starting PG for a team that went to two Final Fours and won one national title. He shot 5-8 from the field (2-4 from three) in his first Final Four game, 10-18 (1-4 from three) with 11 assists in his second. He did go 2-6 and 0-3 from three in the NCAA title game, but his team got an easy win and the program's first ever national title.

So that's my basis for thinking that Blake performs just fine under pressure. What is your basis for thinking otherwise?

 

[Abraham]

Put me in the camp that says pressure is overrated when it comes to pros.

 

[Gr00vus]

A pass also would have eliminated the possibility of an offensive rebound/putback off a missed shot. 25-30% rebounds to the offense x approximately 40-50% FG shooting on putback attempts equals an extra 10-15% chance of winning if you shoot with time on the clock for a rebound and putback. No way a pass to the interior followed by a contested shot improves on Blake's chances on a wide open J by that much. Even if you account for the increased possibility of a trip to the line.

Disagree on everything you say here. Dude's at the rim either dunking or laying it in - there's much more chance of the ball staying in reach than there is of boarding a 3 pointer (as displayed exactly by last night's long carom play). Blake caught it with 5 seconds, passing it to Bynum and Bynum going up immediately right at the rack - he's either scoring or getting fouled - but there'd still be at least 3 seconds, plenty of time for a tip in or board for a shot around the rim. When all you need is 1 point the chances of drawing a foul are a huge advantage for taking a shot inside.

Did Bynum really have that clear of a look? I was speaking more generally about just sending a pass into the post.

It would have been a tough play. -Blake was wide open and was looking for the shot because of that.

-To change his motion from shooting to passing as he was going up for the shot would have been a risky proposition as you never really see him do that, so it probably wouldn't have looked pretty.

-Bynum was basically posted up under the corner of the backboard which would have made for a fairly tricky pass to the post and he would have probably had to jump back into Perkins to get the ball towards the hoop.

-By the time the shot had gone up Perkins had pushed Bynum from where he was trying to post up.

-Perkins is a pretty stout defender down low, even with great position for Bynum a shot in the low post would not be a gimmie.

The three was the best look the Lakers were getting in the last 6 seconds.

IMO I think the passing lane was clear and Bynum had great position. If Bynum gets the pass he's pivoting & dunking/laying it in and/or getting hammered by Perkins, Perkins wasn't in position to keep him from scoring. Like I said earlier pause at the 3 second mark of the video. Now I agree with Kev that Blake wasn't even considering pass, so it would possibly have been an awkward adjustment. Also like I said earlier, I don't have a big problem with the shot he took - he was wide open. I'd just prefer a shot 5 feet & in which they may have had there.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

Don't hold your breath for a reasonable answer. "Common sense" says Blake can't handle the pressure.

 

[saintfool]

OK. Last night was depressing, but I'm over it. Taking this one game at a time. The formula the Lakers used last night is a good one, and they just need to keep at it. We're going to win game 3. Then we'll see about game 4.

It's good to see this kind of progress, Tims.

1. SHOCK & DENIAL-You will probably react to learning of the loss with numbed disbelief. You may deny the reality of the loss at some level, in order to avoid the pain. Shock provides emotional protection from being overwhelmed all at once. This may last for weeks.2. PAIN & GUILT-As the shock wears off, it is replaced with the suffering of unbelievable pain. Although excruciating and almost unbearable, it is important that you experience the pain fully, and not hide it, avoid it or escape from it with alcohol or drugs.You may have guilty feelings or remorse over things you did or didn't do with your loved one. Life feels chaotic and scary during this phase.3. ANGER & BARGAINING-Frustration gives way to anger, and you may lash out and lay unwarranted blame for the death on someone else. Please try to control this, as permanent damage to your relationships may result. This is a time for the release of bottled up emotion.You may rail against fate, questioning "Why me?" You may also try to bargain in vain with the powers that be for a way out of your despair ("I will never drink again if you just bring him back")4. "DEPRESSION", REFLECTION, LONELINESS-Just when your friends may think you should be getting on with your life, a long period of sad reflection will likely overtake you. This is a normal stage of grief, so do not be "talked out of it" by well-meaning outsiders. Encouragement from others is not helpful to you during this stage of grieving.During this time, you finally realize the true magnitude of your loss, and it depresses you. You may isolate yourself on purpose, reflect on things you did with your lost one, and focus on memories of the past. You may sense feelings of emptiness or despair.5. THE UPWARD TURN-As you start to adjust to life without your dear one, your life becomes a little calmer and more organized. Your physical symptoms lessen, and your "depression" begins to lift slightly.6. RECONSTRUCTION & WORKING THROUGH-As you become more functional, your mind starts working again, and you will find yourself seeking realistic solutions to problems posed by life without your loved one. You will start to work on practical and financial problems and reconstructing yourself and your life without him or her.7. ACCEPTANCE & HOPE-During this, the last of the seven stages in this grief model, you learn to accept and deal with the reality of your situation. Acceptance does not necessarily mean instant happiness. Given the pain and turmoil you have experienced, you can never return to the carefree, untroubled YOU that existed before this tragedy. But you will find a way forward.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

Good god is this a reach. Pointing to Blake's "800 career minutes" in the playoffs, almost all of which have been in a reserve role, as evidence that he "performs just fine under pressure"? Just to put the 800 minutes in perspective, Kobe has played more than 800 playoff minutes in a single postseason 6 times.

 

[Abraham]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

What was your take on the final play for them?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

Like I said, I'm open to evidence to the contrary. Experience doesn't necessarily equal excellence. As has been noted by you and many others here, Kobe has a TON of playoff and late game experience, and we know that he's terrible under pressure.Seriously though ... I've shown that there's at least some basis for thinking that Blake performs just fine under pressure (to choose one of several arguments: you may disagree, but I'm pretty comfortable concluding that the pressure in a single elimination Final Four game absolutely dwarfs the pressure of a Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals).

I say the people claiming that a guy performs differently in one particular situation should bear the burden of proving it, but I've still gone ahead and argued that the guy does just fine in the clutch. I've given several arguments that he does just fine in the clutch. You think they're a reach? Fine. Show me I'm wrong.

ETA: Just for fun, here's another example. 7-11 and 5-6 from three in Game Seven against the Nuggets just last week.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

I had no problem with it. I think the play was designed to go elsewhere, but Blake had an extremely good look, and did exactly what he's supposed to do in that situation. But I wasn't surprised that he missed.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

Citing Blake's career playoff minutes is evidence that he performs fine under pressure?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Wide open, feet set, corner shot... all you forgot to mention was the most differentiating factor of the moment, pressure.

33rd playoff game of Steve Blake's career. Over 800 minutes of action, some of which obviously was crunch time action, and has shot 41% from three (31-95) during those playoffs minutes. Although I think that was his first playoff game-winning attempt,

Please stop with the fishing. You're bright enough to know that the minutes total is not the point.

I'll delete the playoff minute total from my post if you'll stop with the nonsense. Deal?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Honestly, I think Brown erred by not having two plays called for them when they took their timeout with 18 seconds left. Considering they were having a tough team inbounding, and knowing OKC had a foul to give, taking their last timeout with 6+ seconds left put them in a position where they Artest had to throw it to Blake or else risk turning it over on the 5-second violation. A smart coach would have had his team ready to run another play without having to take another timeout if/when OKC committed their foul to give.

And I think Kenny Smith nailed it last night when he said it would have made a lot more sense for Bryant to attack immediately once he got the ball with 18 seconds left. Force them to commit the foul to give immediately or else take a shot and get the lead, or if you miss the shot, foul and then at least have another shot to win or tie (depending on if OKC hits one or both of their FTs).