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Psychological issue here. Your team has just played 4 quarters and held their own, and the score is tied. Their confidence has to be high. By making this choice, you as the coach are essentially telling them that you don't have confidence in them, that you think they are a weaker team. The long term consequences of this could be very dangerous for the psyche of the team. I'd never do it.
Everyone knows that the heat are a better team. These are grown men playing on a ####ty basketball team. They are under no illusions that they and their 15-26 record are better than the Heat.You are so ####### melodramatic.
I know.
1-2 out of 10 is way too low for a 5 minute period, esp. at home. If Miami's favored by 10 over a 48 minute stretch, what would they be favored by over a 5 minute stretch? Miami -1?Also, you have to foul the ball. Which means you're probably fouling a good/decent FT shooter. And if you get a rebound, you can call a quick TO and advance the ball and get a last-gasp shot. I dunno, I just play it straight up and hope for the best.
If you want to look at it as a pessimist, sure. Or you look at it as the coach has the confidence in his team to make a game winning bucket.Toronto had also blown a big lead (16 I think?) tonight and have been terrible in OT/close games this year. And really, you don't think every single player on Toronto knows the Heat are the better team? They're the defending champs and have the best player in the game. These aren't kids out there. They're men who are used to being ripped apart by coaches, teammates, fans, media etc. Pretty sure their 'psyche' can handle it.
Is punctuation a post-grad course at the U?
I'm not sure you can use the game line. The Heat are going to be using their best lineup for all 5 minutes of OT. 18 seconds left and the Heat aren't expecting the foul. Foul who ever catches, most likely LeBron/Wade/Chalmers; all between 70-75%. You'll have 17 seconds left to run a play. A little over 25% of the time a 2 give you the lead/win.
But I'm not registered there. : obligatorymopes
:BTW, why you asking for Jesus in a Skrubs thread? Just askin'.
OKC kinda fell apart in the last minute or so.
Minimal Doctorate just to apply.
So will the Raptors, of course. Does taking each team's respective second units out of the picture really improve Miami's chances that much? Maybe bump them up to -1.5? Still not AS big of a favorite over 5 minutes. And with an emboldened home crowd! (Maybe that helps a little)70-75% FT shooting is a 1.4 - 1.5 points expectation for the possession. That's real high, even compared to Miami's robust 1.1 ppp. If you foul when they're in the single bonus...it gets close. 25% of the time you get the ball tied, 56% of the time you're down 2, 19-ish% you're down 1, assuming a 75% FT shooter. That's north of 1.1, but not as much.
That was a great look from Steph. I re-wound it when it happened for wifey last night and we watched it 3-4 times.
watch yo mouf, 16.
And GSW will have to turn over a much more palatable draft pick to Brooklyn for stupid Marcus Williams.
I think its an interesting question but your percentages feel way off. You are making an assumption that if the Heat miss 1 or the Raptors make a 3 that the Heat dont get the ball back, so the quality of shot will be much lower than if they run a normal offense and leave like 5 seconds left. I think 40% is way too high if you want a buzzer beater shot (which you HAVE to do in this case because you dont want Miami having the ball last since you are fouling with 18 seconds). The 30%number on if Miami hits both is absurd. League average for 3's is around 30-35% i believe, but in the waning seconds of a 1 possession game i would bet it falls well below 30% since the defense is prepared for a 3 pointer. Too many variables to do this, you just have to hope the Heat miss the last shot. One thing you didnt mention that could help your cause is the Heats chances of winning in regulation and if they miss than add in the Raptors OT chances (which you estimated at 20%) Like Baseball has win probabilities, I am sure there is a basketball win Probabilities somewhere analyzing what the proper play really is.
NBA has a bonus now? When did that happen?
Your team is awful. Deal with it.
The 30% number was to hit a 3 if Miami makes both free throws. Yes, there are a ton of variables. Even if you make a go ahead shot with .5 seconds left you could still lose. The point is to take your chances in regulation instead of vs a superior team in OT.
Toronto's bench averages almost 10 points more per game than Miami's. I'd think the line would be closer to 2.5-3. But I still don't think we need to worry about the line. Heat in OT is going to be 5 minutes of LeBron and Wade dominating the ball and not taking possessions off like they (and every player) does throughout the game. We'd have to get timscochet in here to quantify how much the home crowd would effect each teams psyche.
First time I heard about the 'theory' was in '08 Olympics. Apparently it happens a fair bit in Europe as teams want the chance to win the game.You're telling your team that you're going to employ a strategy to try and win the game. Same thing with an NFL coach going for it on 4th down. Is he saying he doesn't trust his defense or is he saying he thinks that is the best strategy to win the game? And Toronto fans would go nuts either way. Lets not worry about what they think.
Everybody's giving me crap for mentioning psyche, but I hold it's important. These guys may technically be adults, and professionals, but they sure as Hell don't act like it. They behave like emotional, pouty little children, and sometimes even the smallest of slights can affect their games for weeks or the entire season.
A single play isn't going to do that. A long systematic destruction of a player, like Kobe and the LA media has done to Pau, I could agree with.
I'm your huckleberry.
I can't imagine how he wouldn't. He's been the best player on the East's 4th best team. RE: Houston - another terrible loss last night. The 3 and 4 spots are killing them in the last month. Early on you could count on 2 of Parsons, Delfino, Morris and Patterson putting up a good game. Now they are getting a good game from MAYBE one of them at a time. The Centers are putting up 16 and 16 and Harden is doing his job just fine. But with Lin/Beverly/Douglas (who has fallen out of the rotation) struggling these Rockets look like the Rockets of old - getting regular production from two players instead of three or four.
Fantastic pass. Did Jack travel? Seemed like he had the road runner thing going there.
East: The Guarantee guys who make it: Irving, Lopez, BoshThen the rest of the team will be a mix of George, Pierce, Holliday, Noah, Chandler, Boozer and Josh Smith. My guesses are George, Holliday, Boozer and Smith make it. In the west:Guarantees are Harden, Westbrook, Duncan the rest will be from Curry, Lee, Parker, Zbo, Marc Gasol, Aldridge. I think Curry, Parker, Lee and Aldridge make it.
Doesn't he have two years left on the deal? That would be a tough one.:Fires-up-Scola/Martin-Trade-Machine:Cousins and Nash to BostonRondo, Hayes, and Salmons to LALGasol to SacramentoORNash and Gay to BostonRondo, Jeff Green, and Darrell Arthur to LALGasol and Courtney Lee to Memphis
As a Laker fan I'd take any of those deals, though I wonder how Kobe and Rondo would work. Nash's deal is looking more idiotic by the second.
I'd love to get Rondo. But I can't see the Kings trading Cousins for Gasol, and I can't see Boston trading Rondo and Green for Nash and Gay. To tell the truth, I don't think Nash has any value, and not sure Gasol has much either at this point. The Lakers are screwed.
What happens to Randolph?
First one: No way Sacramento/Seattle does this.Second one: No way Boston does this.
Sorry, I'm thinking NCAA for an NBA issue.
b) :© 
