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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (1 Viewer)

Who is worse?

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Uruk-Hai said:
I'm the dumbest person in the world when it comes to advanced stats. Of the three you mention, I've seen Kansas the most and they look like a legit championship contender to me. I don't think Gonzaga is too far behind and has the best team they've ever had (again, IMO). Oregon, I don't trust as far as I can throw them but they are really talented.
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Another way to put it would be if Kansas makes the Final Four, they would be the first 1 seed ranked lower than fifth on Kenpom to ever make it that far.  Same with their turnovers and rebound margins.  They'd be the first one seed with that low a margin to ever make the Final Four.  Gonzaga would be the first one seed with a bad SoS to make the Final Four, etc.  There's a first for everything in all of these categories, so it's obviously not an exact science and nobody would bat an eye if they made the FF.  Just fodder to keep in the back of your mind.  

 
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TODAY'S TOP STORIES

Davidson dominating La Salle, putting the A-10 on notice that they will run the table.

CSUB Fighing Tanners begin the road to back-to-back tourney berhts.

 
Oddly, not that bad a loss on paper.  38 in KenPom, 78 in RPI, neutral court (sort of).  

Ancedotal evidence suggests the TSC overreacts to conference tournament week, so there's some concern this gives them an excuse to let UK or the Pac-12 champ play their way into the last 1-seed and bump KU down to a 2-seed.  Which would suck because I doubt KU would be the 2-seed in the Kansas City region.

 
Scoresman said:
Potential one seed "pretenders" this year if I'm looking at things correctly are Kansas, Oregon,and Gonzaga.  "Pretender" meaning they possess statistical outliers when compared to historical one seed Final Four teams.  Gonzaga because of their SoS.  Kansas because of a low Created Possession Margin and low kenpom ranking.  Oregon because of low kenpom ranking.  Obviously some of these can change over the next few days.
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Keep in mind that Oregon started out 2-2 on the year with their best player and Pac 12 player of the year hurt.  24-2 since then.  Not sure if Ken Pom takes injuries into account.  That said, Oregon can beat any team in the country one game and then come out flat the next.   Should be an awesome tournament to watch.

 
Don't Noonan said:
Keep in mind that Oregon started out 2-2 on the year with their best player and Pac 12 player of the year hurt.  24-2 since then.  Not sure if Ken Pom takes injuries into account.  That said, Oregon can beat any team in the country one game and then come out flat the next.   Should be an awesome tournament to watch.
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Yup.  Oregon routinely puts together 5-6-7 minute scoring droughts, regardless of the opponent.  I sat in the stands and watched them put up just 16 in the entire first half at Cal a few weeks back, and Cal sucks.  They've managed to play their way back out of it most of the year (@ UCLA was a notable exception blowing a 19 point lead), but they drop one of those stretches in the tourney against a team playing well and they could get bounced the first weekend, regardless of seeding.

That being said they also can just flat out destroy teams when their energy is high on D and they're making shots (getting up 19 at Pauley, blowing out Arizona).  As long as they end up in the West with a 1 or 2, I'm personally stoked - first 4 games would all be a quick flight down to CA for the team and within a 2 hour drive for me.  

 
Uruk-Hai said:
I'm the dumbest person in the world when it comes to advanced stats. Of the three you mention, I've seen Kansas the most and they look like a legit championship contender to me. I don't think Gonzaga is too far behind and has the best team they've ever had (again, IMO). Oregon, I don't trust as far as I can throw them but they are really talented.
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Mild Ducks homer here (not nearly as rabid as @Don't Noonan)...when Oregon is hot they are unbeatable.  I'm actually hoping they lose in the P12 tourney and play just really consistent in the NCAAs.  If they shoot 55% from 3 in the 1st round I'll know they are done early.  If they shoot 40ish% from 3 each game their defense will keep them in every game and they can get to the Final 4.  But one cold game will kill them.  That said Brooks is good enough to have a Shabazz Napier type run and carry them to the Final 4 at least.

 
facook said:
Also I miss you in the gambling thread.  Please come back.  Are you just a football season guy?
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I'm extremely negative baseball, moderately negative basketball/hockey, and slightly positive football. 

My overall net on gambling is a zero sum game for me. I enjoy it, but I just don't have the discipline to be successful long term at it.

 
I think the PAC winner should be the final 1 seed over the Zags, but I don't see it happening without a UNC loss.

If UNC losses tomorrow I think they're a 2.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If you were a Heel fan, would that change your opinion? 

Ive been giving this thought for a few hours.
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If I was a Heel fan I would just want to beat whoever they played next and win the ACC tourney  the 1 seed is a gimme.  I understand UNC/Duke have been good games but I have seen it enough already.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm extremely negative baseball, moderately negative basketball/hockey, and slightly positive football. 

My overall net on gambling is a zero sum game for me. I enjoy it, but I just don't have the discipline to be successful long term at it.
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Did you tail the props?  I can be super mediocre on sides for 3/5 of the year and the football props that get posted by a couple of guys keep me on the positive side.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
Oddly, not that bad a loss on paper.  38 in KenPom, 78 in RPI, neutral court (sort of).  

Ancedotal evidence suggests the TSC overreacts to conference tournament week, so there's some concern this gives them an excuse to let UK or the Pac-12 champ play their way into the last 1-seed and bump KU down to a 2-seed.  Which would suck because I doubt KU would be the 2-seed in the Kansas City region.
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Blueblood problems. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
This, I never have...

I also think they're playing for the 1 seed tomorrow. Think they're a 1 regardless of anything if they win tomorrow.
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I agree.  For me it's a no brainer. I think the final could be an absolute classic and if you go to UNC/Duke 3 you won't feel like you missed out.  But if you go to the final and UNC/Duke 3 is amazing you'll feel like you did.  The semi is the way to go.

 
If you've never seen them play live then I say UNC/Duke is the right call. There's no guarantee that UNC will make the finals. 

Or you could sell the watch and go to both. 

 
Vanderbilt has to have all kinds of confidence right now. Winners of 7 of their last 8 (loss @ Rupp), they crushed TAMU tonight and face a Florida team they swept next.

UF rocket scientist Kasey Hill apparently said earlier in the week that the Gators wanted Vandy and that they are going to beat them. Hill missed two 1 foot shots in the closing minutes in Saturday's loss at Vandy. 

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
Vanderbilt has to have all kinds of confidence right now. Winners of 7 of their last 8 (loss @ Rupp), they crushed TAMU tonight and face a Florida team they swept next.

UF rocket scientist Kasey Hill apparently said earlier in the week that the Gators wanted Vandy and that they are going to beat them. Hill missed two 1 foot shots in the closing minutes in Saturday's loss at Vandy. 
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In Nashville as well. 

 
MattFancy said:
Probably right. Though, UNC has more top 50 RPI wins than any of the Pac-12 teams.
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I dunno, I keep going back to the idea that the Pac 12 teams would probably rather be a 2 out west with Gonzaga than a 1 in the south (opr maybe even in the west) with UNC as their 2.  Which means UNC as a 1 is a win-win.

Also on a more fundamental level it seems like if you win the nation's best conference in terms of both bids and seeding by two full games, and don't get eliminated from the tournament until you face another national title contender, you deserve a 1.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I dunno, I keep going back to the idea that the Pac 12 teams would probably rather be a 2 out west with Gonzaga than a 1 in the south (opr maybe even in the west) with UNC as their 2.  Which means UNC as a 1 is a win-win.

Also on a more fundamental level it seems like if you win the nation's best conference in terms of both bids and seeding by two full games, and don't get eliminated from the tournament until you face another national title contender, you deserve a 1.
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Agreed, Pac 12 team should be rooting for # 2 seed out West compared to 1 seed elsewhere.   However, I believe there is a good chance the Pac 12 gets a 1 seed on the West and bumps Gonzaga to the 2.  

 
Don't Noonan said:
Agreed, Pac 12 team should be rooting for # 2 seed out West compared to 1 seed elsewhere.   However, I believe there is a good chance the Pac 12 gets a 1 seed on the West and bumps Gonzaga to the 2.  
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Gonzaga's RPI has gone up in the last couple days (probably due to Iowa St) barely ahead of all the Pac-12 teams.  This will be probably change based on the Pac12 tourney but every other metric has Gonzaga well ahead of the top Pac12 teams.  

I think the Pac 12 winner and Gonzaga both deserve to stay out West and seeding doesn't really matter in that case.

 
Scoresman said:
Gonzaga's RPI has gone up in the last couple days (probably due to Iowa St) barely ahead of all the Pac-12 teams.  This will be probably change based on the Pac12 tourney but every other metric has Gonzaga well ahead of the top Pac12 teams.  

I think the Pac 12 winner and Gonzaga both deserve to stay out West and seeding doesn't really matter in that case.
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Agreed.  It doesn't matter 1 versus 2 in the grand scheme of things other than staying out west.  

 
Uruk-Hai said:
I don't see any way UNC is NOT a 1 seed at this point, no matter what happens going forward in the ACCT for them. 
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I think they're a bubble 1 if they lose tonight, locked in as 1 with a win, and the overall 1 with a win tonight and tomorrow. 

When was the last time a team was the overall 1 back to back years?

 
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