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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (2 Viewers)

Who is worse?

  • Total voters
    278
BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
State fan and alum...I think the combination of Miami being a long, physical team at all positions and having a very good shutdown defense is going to give MSU all kinds of problems. If Miles and Langford hit shots consistently, if Nick can be effective underneath and stay out of foul trouble and if they go with more fast break offense rather than half court sets, they may have a chance...But that's a lot of "ifs"...
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I think this one's gonna be a nail-biter, though low on points.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
I'm pretty sure @Rich Conway & @BowieMercs have watched the Terps more than I have this year, but there's my take:

They get very little offense from their big guys, Dodds & Bender (and have lost 7' Cekovsky for the year). To say it's all on Melo Trimble may be a little overboard, but they won't win a game if he's not playing well. The three freshmen - Fs Jackson & Heurter, and PG Cowan - are very good, but they seemed to hit a wall about 3 weeks ago. That leaves LG Gill as an undersized post player (who really should play more) and backcourt guys Nickens, Wiley, and Brantley. All three of the latter group are really streaky. For a team that has to rely on it's Gs and wings, it's not consistent shooting the ball at all.

Without Trimble going all Randolph Childress or - the name escapes me - the dude from UCONN a couple of years ago, I can't see Maryland advancing much past their seed.  
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This is a fairly accurate assessment, although I also suspect that some of the Terps weaknesses won't manifest themselves as much against non-conference opponents that aren't so familiar with them.

Strengths: PGs driving the lane and either finishing or dishing.  Trimble, Cowan, and Brantley are all capable of driving and finishing, or dishing to a post player or open spot-up shooter.  Some of their passes are truly brilliant.  Trimble is the best of the three, as he also has a knack for drawing (some might call it initiating) contact and still finishing.  Three point shooting for the team as a whole is good, but extremely streaky.  With the exception of the center, Dodd, free throw shooting is pretty good.  When Trimble is hot, he is capable of winning games practically by himself.

Weaknesses: Dodd is very limited offensively.  Defensive rebounding is very poor.  The best offensive center, Cekovsky, is out for the season.  Defense is vulnerable to a good ball screen passer and post finisher.  That is, the Terps bigs often hedge too far, leaving the post player open if the PG can get the pass through.  Offense is sometimes stymied by a good zone.

 
Virginia/Villanova assuming the match-up happens could be the lowest scoring game in the tournament.  Tempted to pick Virginia to differentiate.  

 
Trimble is the best finishing-in-the-lane G (who's not a dunker) that I've seen in a long, long time. And, as Rich says, he's got drawing fouls down to a science with his "ow, my neck is broken!" head snap. 

If he shoots like 4-15 and doesn't get to the line a dozen times, Maryland's in big trouble.

 
Bruce Dickinson said:
I'll spare everyone a detailed breakdown of KU's roster and playing style.  I'll just say a potential regional final against Louisville is a bad matchup for the Jayhawks.  Teams that play pressure, physical defense and try to take some time off the shot clock before the opposing offense can organize to run a play is precisely the type of defense to play against this group.  Mason and Graham can beat you down the floor in transition and can punish half court mistakes, but get impatient and flustered by full-court and 3/4-court presses.  That's how Villanova has had their number the last few seasons, that's how West Virginia blew them out, the only team to beat KU by more than four points this season.  

Wasn't worried about facing Duke or UK in regionals: KU beat UK at Rupp and beat Duke on a neutral court.  But Louisville with only one day to rest/recover/prepare and a short bench, worries me a great deal.  
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You do realize Duke didn't have one of its best players in Jayson Tatum when Kansas beat them earlier this year right? Duke is way way better now than they were earlier in the season. Kansas might have improved too, but if you haven't been watching, Tatum is one of the best players in the country right now. He should have won ACC Tournament MVP over Luke Kennard. He is the reason I think Duke was given the best odds by Vegas to win it. 

 
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Uruk-Hai said:
Maryland is way overseeded based on their resume.

I honestly don't understand most of the B1G seedings, especially in relation to one another (which I know is not what the selection Committee is looking at). 
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No, but you'd like them to make some internal sense relative to the conference.  And while I'm not sure about your boys being overseeded, I agree that the Big Twenty-Two's seed draws are pretty confusing.  

Glad Iowa drew a top slot in the NIT.  

 
TripItUp said:
The problem with most of the metrics being referenced in this thread is that they do not properly account for injuries.

Easiset way to game these rankings is to look at teams like Duke and AZ that were drastically impacted by injury.  

Also, young teams like Kentucky and AZ tend to be significantly better in the latter half of the season, which of course most metrics do not account for.

But by all means, continue with the metrics gospel...I want to know who I'll be fading when I'm in Vegas in a few days.
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The oddsmakers are more sophisticated than Pomeroy, for sure. You can't just compare KP #'s to betting lines and expect his numbers to beat theirs.

 
Creighton seems to be badly overseeded as a 6. The Jays went 7-8 since the injury to Maurice Watson in mid-January. Love Rhode Island in that one.

 
Dickie Dunn said:
Creighton seems to be badly overseeded as a 6. The Jays went 7-8 since the injury to Maurice Watson in mid-January. Love Rhode Island in that one.
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The post Watson record is a bit deceiving.  Two of the losses happened right after the injury in January and three were vs. Villanova.  The only really bad loss was a stinker at home to Georgetown. 

The #6 seeding is a composite of their entire season.  They had the look of a Final Four contender before Watson went down.  They're not that now but McDermott & Co have righted the ship

 
Scoresman said:
Virginia/Villanova assuming the match-up happens could be the lowest scoring game in the tournament.  Tempted to pick Virginia to differentiate.  
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plus you've got Wisconsin up there for insurance on a kenpom slow wet dream

 
Scoresman said:
Virginia/Villanova assuming the match-up happens could be the lowest scoring game in the tournament.  Tempted to pick Virginia to differentiate.  
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They played earlier this year and Villanova won on a tip-in at the buzzer.

 
Scoresman said:
Virginia/Villanova assuming the match-up happens could be the lowest scoring game in the tournament.  Tempted to pick Virginia to differentiate.  
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They already played.  At the Flyers/Sixers arena I believe.  The score was close, late bucket to win, not historically low but maybe 64-62 or something.  (Too many windows open right now.) 

 
BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
State fan and alum...I think the combination of Miami being a long, physical team at all positions and having a very good shutdown defense is going to give MSU all kinds of problems. If Miles and Langford hit shots consistently, if Nick can be effective underneath and stay out of foul trouble and if they go with more fast break offense rather than half court sets, they may have a chance...But that's a lot of "ifs"...
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State's not very good this year and lost one of their best players and few seniors late in the year.  I don't know much about Miami, but I'm almost certainly fading State.

 
Clark Kellogg just now on the radio:

Host: Can Kent State hang with UCLA?

Clark: They can hang.. but you gotta hang long and hard, cuz UCLA can spurt on you.

Really, Clark?

 
Interesting Notre Dame/West Virginia note.  West Virginia seems to be the type of team that relies heavily on turnovers.  Notre Dame is the top team in the country at not turning the ball over.  

 
Scoresman said:
Interesting Notre Dame/West Virginia note.  West Virginia seems to be the type of team that relies heavily on turnovers.  Notre Dame is the top team in the country at not turning the ball over.  
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yup. Noticed this immediately when the brackets came out. Very interesting 2nd round matchup.

 
Scoresman said:
Interesting Notre Dame/West Virginia note.  West Virginia seems to be the type of team that relies heavily on turnovers.  Notre Dame is the top team in the country at not turning the ball over.  
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Some would say West Virginia relies heavily on the refs not wanting to call a foul on every single possession.

 
MattFancy said:
The one #2 I'm most skeptical about is Louisville. Don't know why, but I just have a feeling they could go out early.
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They seem to go through a lot of spells where nothing goes through the hoop.  But I think they match up well vs Kansas if both top seeds make it to the round of eight

 
Rich Conway said:
Some would say West Virginia relies heavily on the refs not wanting to call a foul on every single possession.
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Some (ok - ME) wishes Damonte Dodd didn't kick his own teammate in the head two years ago when they played WVU in the NCAAT  :wall:

They play rough, but that's not on them and I doubt Huggins is a ref-fave. 

 
I love how the NIT trolled Syracuse with UNC Greensboro as their opponent and now mother nature trolls Syracuse with sh###y weather.

 
Eephus said:
They seem to go through a lot of spells where nothing goes through the hoop.  But I think they match up well vs Kansas if both top seeds make it to the round of eight
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I have Louisville winning the whole thing in a couple of on-line brackets :bag:

 
MattFancy said:
The one #2 I'm most skeptical about is Louisville. Don't know why, but I just have a feeling they could go out early.
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I agree with this, so I went digging. I think maybe the reason we're feeling that way is that they haven't had an impressive win since January 14, when the beat Duke at home.  I'd say their best win since then is either a home win vs Notre Dame to close out the regular season or an OT road win at Syracuse a month ago. Take a look and see if you can find a result since mid-January that makes you think this is an elite team.  Maybe hanging with Duke on a neutral floor in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament?

 
MattFancy said:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18903023/expert-picks-their-final-four-national-champion-2017-ncaa-tournament

Interesting to see how divided everyone is this season. There really doesn't seem to be a consensus favorite going into the tournament.

From the list: 4 UNC, 4 Duke, 4 Villanova, 4 Gonzaga, 3 Arizona, 3 Kansas, 1 Kentucky, 1 Michigan
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This means that pools that weigh heavily on picking the winner are going to be even more ####ty and random this year.  

 
TobiasFunke said:
I agree with this, so I went digging. I think maybe the reason we're feeling that way is that they haven't had an impressive win since January 14, when the beat Duke at home.  I'd say their best win since then is either a home win vs Notre Dame to close out the regular season or an OT road win at Syracuse a month ago. Take a look and see if you can find a result since mid-January that makes you think this is an elite team.  Maybe hanging with Duke on a neutral floor in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament?
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:lmao:  destroying weak competition is a sign of an elite team.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I agree with this, so I went digging. I think maybe the reason we're feeling that way is that they haven't had an impressive win since January 14, when the beat Duke at home.  I'd say their best win since then is either a home win vs Notre Dame to close out the regular season or an OT road win at Syracuse a month ago. Take a look and see if you can find a result since mid-January that makes you think this is an elite team.  Maybe hanging with Duke on a neutral floor in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament?
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I'm not paying $12.95 to tell myself I'm wrong. I have ex-wives for that, and they're finally free!

 
Scoresman said:
Interesting Notre Dame/West Virginia note.  West Virginia seems to be the type of team that relies heavily on turnovers.  Notre Dame is the top team in the country at not turning the ball over.  
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Seems?  They can't shoot well at all.  If they don't get the turnovers, they lose.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I agree with this, so I went digging. I think maybe the reason we're feeling that way is that they haven't had an impressive win since January 14, when the beat Duke at home.  I'd say their best win since then is either a home win vs Notre Dame to close out the regular season or an OT road win at Syracuse a month ago. Take a look and see if you can find a result since mid-January that makes you think this is an elite team.  Maybe hanging with Duke on a neutral floor in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament?
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The thing with Louisville is they have 0 bad losses. You're right, they haven't really won a big game in awhile, but all of their losses are to teams in the RPI Top 50. Their worst loss of the year is @ Wake and that really isn't even that bad of a loss. I think they're a good team, but I just don't know if they are Final Four good.

 
tjnc09 said:
:lmao:  destroying weak competition is a sign of an elite team.
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They haven't played a weak team since February 4. 

Here are the records of the 1 and 2 seeds over the last month, with record vs KenPomTop 25 teams in parentheses:

Villanova: 6-1 (0-0)

Kansas: 5-1 (0-1)

UNC: 6-2 (3-2)

Gonzaga: 6-1 (2-0)

Arizona: 7-1 (2-1)

Duke: 7-3 (5-1)

Kentucky: 8-0 (1-0)

Louisville: 3-3 (1-2, with the one win being a home win over the #25 team)

To me, if you're looking to recent form to evaluate the high seeds, one of those looks a lot worse than the others.  And if I remember correctly Louisville has also taken a slight dip in the advanced rankings over the last few weeks too. My statement about them not having an impressive win since mid-January was basically shorthand for this. You're free to disagree and explain why you don't think this information is important or interesting if you like.  Or you could just give us more of your drive-by arrogant snark that contributes nothing.

 
MattFancy said:
The thing with Louisville is they have 0 bad losses. You're right, they haven't really won a big game in awhile, but all of their losses are to teams in the RPI Top 50. Their worst loss of the year is @ Wake and that really isn't even that bad of a loss. I think they're a good team, but I just don't know if they are Final Four good.
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Yeah, I agree. I was just trying to figure out why us ACC fans might be feeling like they're not primed for a Final Four run, and I think the reason is just that they haven't beaten an elite team since mid-January. They're certainly a very good team, no particular reason to think they're gonna lose the first weekend.

They're also an elite defensive team (23rd in offense, 6th in defense), and for whatever reason defense doesn't get a lot of attention unless you're doing it at snoozeball tempo like UVA or Wisconsin.

 
TobiasFunke said:
They haven't played a weak team since February 4. 

Here are the records of the 1 and 2 seeds over the last month, with record vs KenPomTop 25 teams in parentheses:

Villanova: 6-1 (0-0)

Kansas: 5-1 (0-1)

UNC: 6-2 (3-2)

Gonzaga: 6-1 (2-0)

Arizona: 7-1 (2-1)

Duke: 7-3 (5-1)

Kentucky: 8-0 (1-0)

Louisville: 3-3 (1-2, with the one win being a home win over the #25 team)

To me, if you're looking to recent form to evaluate the high seeds, one of those looks a lot worse than the others.  And if I remember correctly Louisville has also taken a slight dip in the advanced rankings over the last few weeks too. My statement about them not having an impressive win since mid-January was basically shorthand for this. You're free to disagree and explain why you don't think this information is important or interesting if you like.  Or you could just give us more of your drive-by arrogant snark that contributes nothing.
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This post is so terrible I don't even know where to start.  I can see why books are having an "incredible" college basketball season if this is how people approach their talent evaluation.

 
Tobias, I actually respect a lot of what you post, but come on man.  You have to put about 1000x more thought into this than that.

 
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