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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (2 Viewers)

Who is worse?

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The problem with most of the metrics being referenced in this thread is that they do not properly account for injuries.

Easiset way to game these rankings is to look at teams like Duke and AZ that were drastically impacted by injury.  

Also, young teams like Kentucky and AZ tend to be significantly better in the latter half of the season, which of course most metrics do not account for.

But by all means, continue with the metrics gospel...I want to know who I'll be fading when I'm in Vegas in a few days.

 
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Both Louisville and UK playing in Indy first weekend.  Those fans will cheer raucously against each other.  Should make for a good atmosphere.

 
MattFancy said:
Well yeah. But WVU/FSU/ND all have some tough matchups. I just have a hard time picking anyone but Zona or Gonzaga out West.
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Gonzaga will have a tougher second-round matchup than FSU. (They're also significantly better than FSU, but that's another point)

 
Peyton Marino said:
Aerial Assault said:
I knew you were going to accuse me of that eventually - and you held out longer than I thought you would - but you're aiming that nerf gun at completely the wrong person.  I'm a Duke fan, an Iowa fan, and a Northwestern fan now that Collins is there 
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hang on, what?
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i like aerial assault funny guy so i will translate he is trying to say that he roots for loathsome teams and horrible people and for some reason iowa is in the mix take that to the bank bromigos

 
 as far i am concerned metric can go to hell if it aint something i can measure in hands and horsepower american hemi style i do not want to hear about it take that to the bank fellow bromericans 

 
TripItUp said:
The problem with most of the metrics being referenced in this thread is that they do not properly account for injuries.

Easiset way to game these rankings is to look at teams like Duke and AZ that were drastically impacted by injury.  

Also, young teams like Kentucky and AZ tend to be significantly better in the latter half of the season, which of course most metrics do not account for.

But by all means, continue with the metrics gospel...I want to know who I'll be fading when I'm in Vegas in a few days.
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who is touting any metric as "gospel"?  

furthermore, it might shock you to learn that you can customize and alter these metrics to account for injuries and recency weighting (which I'm pretty sure KenPom already does)

 
TobiasFunke said:
I'm generally a big KenPom guy, and I understand generally what he's trying to do. But this one has me baffled: can anyone explain how West Virginia is rated six spots higher than Kansas despite finishing four games behind them in conference in the regular season and having one of the weakest non-conference SOS in the nation (342 in his adjusted NCSOS ratings)?  The obvious explanation would be that they won their 12 conference games by 40 points and their 6 losses were all close or something, and the losses were mostly close I guess, but that's not nearly enough to explain the disparity.

It looks to me like maybe part of it is that they don't take their foot off the gas in blowouts like some other teams.  They have 4 wins by 45+ points (and a few others close to that mark), all in the early part of the season against cupcakes. Kansas, playing at a similar tempo, has none.  My Heels, who play at a similar tempo and are similarly ranked in KenPom, have only one and it actually came in a conference game against a hated rival.

Long story short, I think they got their ranking in part by running up the score. So I'll be fading West Virginia. I usually look to KenPom to find underrated teams to ride but it won't be them.

(excited for this to get bumped at the end of the month when they're in the Final Four)
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The short answer is both Pomeroy really, really, really likes their win @UVa.  From a b-ball standpoint, they rebound the O-board and turnover teams at the best in the nation levels which is something, but again gets into the "it's easy to dominate Western Carolina's of the world physically".

FWIW, I do think the Pomeroy AdjO/D ratings had some problems with the fact that the schedules of few teams were funky.  I was looking at S Carolina (#3 in Pomeroy AdjD) and much of their success comes from turnovers and really poor opponent 3-point shooting.  Of course they've played a grand total of 1 top 50 3 point shooting team in the nation (if my CTRL-F skills didn't fail me).  So of course they'll look good. (For those betting at home Marquette is the best 3-point shooting team in the nation).  

 
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I do like the way they've set up some of these regional pods for great local rooting interest ... Greenville (UNC, Dook, SC); Indy (Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, even N. Kentucky); Orlando (Florida State, Florida, Fla.-Gulf Coast).

My pick for team that is so underrated they're overrated ... NC Wilmington. Seems to be the vogue 12-over-5 upset that everyone tries to peg every year. Of course, if they score 40 they probably win going away.

 
If you were filling out an all chalk bracket as a baseline to measure against, how would you determine the final 4 winners (all 1 seeds)?

 
Dickie Dunn said:
I do like the way they've set up some of these regional pods for great local rooting interest ... Greenville (UNC, Dook, SC); Indy (Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, even N. Kentucky); Orlando (Florida State, Florida, Fla.-Gulf Coast).

My pick for team that is so underrated they're overrated ... NC Wilmington. Seems to be the vogue 12-over-5 upset that everyone tries to peg every year. Of course, if they score 40 they probably win going away.
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Just about everything I've seen has 12 Middle TN over 5 Minnesota as the best shot for a 12v5 upset.

Curious what others who know much more than me think of the 12 v 5 matchups this year.

 
SWC said:
i like aerial assault funny guy so i will translate he is trying to say that he roots for loathsome teams and horrible people and for some reason iowa is in the mix take that to the bank bromigos
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let me know when you're ready to pay the $700 you owe me.  i'll shoot you my paypal.

 
Skoo said:
Just about everything I've seen has 12 Middle TN over 5 Minnesota as the best shot for a 12v5 upset.

Curious what others who know much more than me think of the 12 v 5 matchups this year.
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My favorite part of this whole thing is that there was a team, or a matchup, that popped up on the screen last night that everyone is ignoring now and everyone will be talking about Thursday or Friday. Who saw any of the past 15-over-2 or 14-over-3 upsets happening?

People love Middle Tennessee now, but find me someone who thought they had a prayer of beating Michigan State one year ago.

 
Skoo said:
Just about everything I've seen has 12 Middle TN over 5 Minnesota as the best shot for a 12v5 upset.

Curious what others who know much more than me think of the 12 v 5 matchups this year.
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I only like 1 so far, Mid Tennessee over Minnesota, but I dont like it as much as two 6-11 upsets in Xavier over Maryland and RI over Creighton.  If I enter a large pool I'd probably gamble on 14 Iona over 3 Oregon.

 
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Scoresman said:
I only like 1 so far, Mid Tennessee over Minnesota, but I dont like it as much as two 6-11 upsets in Xavier over Maryland and RI over Creighton.  If I enter a large pool I'd probably gamble on Iona over Oregon.
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:wub:  Those are my 3 first round upsets in my first bracket 

 
Skoo said:
:wub:  Those are my 3 first round upsets in my first bracket 
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My mom tends to beat me at brackets every year and I think she picks on team logo, so take that into consideration.  

I wish I could find a way to get my cat to pick a bracket.  

 
There has been an average of 15-20 upsets per tournament over the last decade or so if you count any time a lower seed beats a higher seed, and this year doesn't look to be any less crazy.  I only have 14 so far.  

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Maryland is way overseeded based on their resume.

I honestly don't understand most of the B1G seedings, especially in relation to one another (which I know is not what the selection Committee is looking at). 
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I don't like Xavier at all. Their pg is out for the season and they had to boot another starter off the team mid season.  A lot of their resume was in place before those 2 things happened

Edit: Davis actually only played 3 games before getting the boot. He was a double digit scorer last year though. They still miss Sumner badly though

 
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TLEF316 said:
I don't like Xavier at all. Their pg is out for the season and they had to boot another starter off the team mid season.  A lot of their resume was in place before those 2 things happened
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I get that. I just don't think MD played up to a 6, but maybe I'm too close to see it clearly. 

Here are their games against other tourney teams:

WINS

KSU (by a point and, IIRC, neutral court)

Okla St (also by a point)

@ Michigan in early January

@ Minnesota end of January

@ NW 

MSU on a buzzer-beater

LOSSES

Purdue by 1 after blowing a 12 pt lead late

@ Wisconsin 

Minnesota

NW in the B1GT

They also got smashed by Pitt, blew a late 7 pt lead at home vs Nebraska, Penn State, and got smoked by Iowa at home

 
TLEF316 said:
I don't like Xavier at all. Their pg is out for the season and they had to boot another starter off the team mid season.  A lot of their resume was in place before those 2 things happened

Edit: Davis actually only played 3 games before getting the boot. He was a double digit scorer last year though. They still miss Sumner badly though
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Good info right here. Thanks.

 
I'll spare everyone a detailed breakdown of KU's roster and playing style.  I'll just say a potential regional final against Louisville is a bad matchup for the Jayhawks.  Teams that play pressure, physical defense and try to take some time off the shot clock before the opposing offense can organize to run a play is precisely the type of defense to play against this group.  Mason and Graham can beat you down the floor in transition and can punish half court mistakes, but get impatient and flustered by full-court and 3/4-court presses.  That's how Villanova has had their number the last few seasons, that's how West Virginia blew them out, the only team to beat KU by more than four points this season.  

Wasn't worried about facing Duke or UK in regionals: KU beat UK at Rupp and beat Duke on a neutral court.  But Louisville with only one day to rest/recover/prepare and a short bench, worries me a great deal.  

 
Peyton Marino said:
not referring to injuries, but recency weighting or "young teams getting better" as he put it.  most ranking systems will weight more recent games heavier and de-weight older games as the season goes on.  again, you can do this manually as well if you feel so inclined.
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Another thing I just remembered about recency weighting is that momentum coming into the tournament (identified as either winning the conference tourney and wins over the last 10 games) has not correlated to tournament success in previous years.  

 
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TripItUp said:
The problem with most of the metrics being referenced in this thread is that they do not properly account for injuries.

Easiset way to game these rankings is to look at teams like Duke and AZ that were drastically impacted by injury.  

Also, young teams like Kentucky and AZ tend to be significantly better in the latter half of the season, which of course most metrics do not account for.

But by all means, continue with the metrics gospel...I want to know who I'll be fading when I'm in Vegas in a few days.
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Obviously this is an issue for any site/sport that accumulates data by team.  Exactly what are you going to fade based off people citing those metrics?  It sounds like you are happier backing "public" teams like Duke, Kentucky and Arizona.  That should go well in Vegas lol  :confused:

 
Scouting Report:  Purdue Boilermakers

Strengths: Everything goes through 6'9" All American PF Caleb Swanigan. Averages 18 and 13 per game. Does most damage on the block but can face up and step out to the 3 pt line. 43% on 3's. 80% FT shooter.  Team is top-10 in 3pt% and top-20 in FT% nationally.  Have 6 guys who can make 3's. 7'2 backup C Isaac Haas is a load on the block and actually pretty skilled and athletic.  Scored 22 in early season 3 point loss to Villanova.  Game plan is pound it inside to Swanigan and Haas, collect fouls and force doubles where they can kick out to open shooters.  Strong man to man defense.  PGs PJ Thompson and Spike Albrecht take good care of the ball.

Weaknesses: Horrific pick and roll defense, especially Swanigan who does not recover well.  Their small guards have trouble stopping bigger slashing guards. No shot blockers although Haas will at least alter some. Big men are prone to turnovers and foul trouble.  If not hitting 3s the offense gets stagnant.

Outlook:  Should have little trouble with Vermont.  ISU would be interesting 2nd round matchup as it would be their athletic guards vs Purdue's size. Don't expect them to beat Kansas but they definitely would give them a game, and could pull the upset if they are hot from 3.

 
I'm pretty sure @Rich Conway & @BowieMercs have watched the Terps more than I have this year, but there's my take:

They get very little offense from their big guys, Dodds & Bender (and have lost 7' Cekovsky for the year). To say it's all on Melo Trimble may be a little overboard, but they won't win a game if he's not playing well. The three freshmen - Fs Jackson & Heurter, and PG Cowan - are very good, but they seemed to hit a wall about 3 weeks ago. That leaves LG Gill as an undersized post player (who really should play more) and backcourt guys Nickens, Wiley, and Brantley. All three of the latter group are really streaky. For a team that has to rely on it's Gs and wings, it's not consistent shooting the ball at all.

Without Trimble going all Randolph Childress or - the name escapes me - the dude from UCONN a couple of years ago, I can't see Maryland advancing much past their seed.  

 
Scouting Report: Ohio St Buckeyes

Strengths: Disappointing me

Weaknesses: Not having a decent shooter in the history of the program outside of Diebler and maybe Deshaun Thomas

Outlook: Continuing to disappoint me indefinitely

 
Scoresman said:
What are people doing for Miami/Mich State.  I'm leaning Miami, but Tom Izzo...
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State fan and alum...I think the combination of Miami being a long, physical team at all positions and having a very good shutdown defense is going to give MSU all kinds of problems. If Miles and Langford hit shots consistently, if Nick can be effective underneath and stay out of foul trouble and if they go with more fast break offense rather than half court sets, they may have a chance...But that's a lot of "ifs"...

 
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