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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Good Posting Judge
- Start date
In The Zone
Footballguy
5Rings
Lurker
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
5Rings
Lurker
You need to spend more time watching West Coast hoops. You could not be more wrong with that same old lazy analysis. This is not Fitz coaching Jeff Brown, Matt Stanford, Jamie Dudley, Marc Armstead, and Geoff Goss winning 20 games. This team has legit NBA talent on it.
Heck, odds are we #### the bed and don't make the final four, but it won't be a lack of talent. Few tends to tighten up in the tourney.
eta--thanks scoresman
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Pipes
Footballguy
Who did they beat non conference that's any good?
Arkansas and Vanderbilt and? It doesn't deserve the high ranking that it got.
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Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Strength of schedule has almost nothing to do with the good teams you play, FYI.
Pipes
Footballguy
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I know why it isn't, but it's a shame the game isn't at UNC-GNIT first round game is...
Syracuse vs. UNC- GREENSBORO
strykerpks
Footballguy
Should I start us up the "Tell us about your team" thread or are we doing that here?
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
24 in RPI
7 in BPI
5 in KenPom (despite being an uptempo team)
4 in Sagarin
Notable wins: at UVA, at Okla St, Baylor by 21, Kansas by 16 (only team to beat KU by more than 4), Iowa State home and away, K-State home and neutral
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Aerial Assault
Footballguy
OK. I saw them play four times this season because I was interested. (And I'm on the West Coast and don't typically get much interested in the Pac-56, so I was up late, and there you go.) I recognize that Karnowski and NWG are very good players. And, wait, did you just make a Dan Fitzgerald reference and break out their roster from about 25 years ago? Not sure where you're going with that. My lazy analysis was based on their underwhelming performances in recent tournaments, not what was going on in 1992. Like I said, though, I'm happy for them to win and particularly beat Arizona. Again.
5Rings
Lurker
Yes sir! That lineup started it all!
When you said you had not watched any pac10 ball I assumed that you didn't see any West Coast either. You seem to know your hoops, forgive my sensitivity to hearing the old underperforming cliche.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
UNO is in!
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
No apology needed whatsoever. I generally don't enjoy watching Pac-12 games although I live in Los Angeles and have been to about seven of the twelve arenas, I think. Let's see . . . just six, actually. The L.A. schools, the S.F. Bay schools, Arizona, and Colorado. I really want to go to HecEd (don't care what its financial institution name is) someday and I have family in Oregon so someday I'll make a Eugene/Corvallis trip. But yeah, for whatever reason when I sit down to watch late-night (so to speak) college basketball, Pac-12 games just don't grab me. I'd rather watch Gonzaga play someone, hence having seen them a few times.
You educated me, though. I remember Fitzgerald (I was in U/G at that time) but thought the Zags got hot with Dan Monson and all the wins he racked up before doing the (failed) climbing thing to Minnesota.
5Rings
Lurker
When Fitz retired, Monson took over. Monson always had bigger plans and leveraged a few good seasons into the Minnesota job...that did not go well. Few was a grad assistant for Fitz and then head asst for Monson, took the job after Monson left, and the rest is history. Few is a really good down to earth dude. Lots of stories about him and the Kennel Club back in the day.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
It's not a perfect tool. But, if you look at its projected scores for totals/games and compare that to Vegas/offshore lines, its usually fairly close. Making a judgment on a team based on one game is bad. On a handful of games, almost just as bad. Every game, with human eyes, not as bad, still pretty bad.
KP takes into account every possession, objectively. Again, not perfect as it treats garbage time the same. Or a game with key players missing. And it obviously doesn't account for missing key players.
I assume you're going to unload both barrels on Notre Dame at plus money/points if they face Gonzaga?
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Only if you stake me, big spender!
As usual you defend your arguments well, although you also did a nice job pointing out three (more) near-fatal flaws in the system. I've met Ken (not a pleasant experience, probably my fault) and have simply had enough of the site and people who act like it's an Einsteinian breakthrough to count possessions and determine things lIke usage rate, which the NBA was tracking in the 70s. A couple of guys I knew in grad school were doing something similar with Big Televen and ACC games years ahead of Pomeroy, but they lacked any Internet platform or savvy.
Penguin
Footballguy
He has Arizona at 20, I'm pretty confident that they would run over at least half the 19 above them. Easily a top 10 team and top 5 right now in my opinion.
It doesn't look like it accounts for recent events ie. streaks, injuries, players returning from injury etc. It has Florida #9, heck they lost to Vandy three times and are 3-3 in their last 6 since Egbunu was lost.
S.Carolina @ 31, they've lost 5 of their last 7, 6 of their last 9. It just doesn't seem to account for recency.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Michigan is fully capable of another run like the one ridden to the conference tourney title. The airplane story aside - upperclassmen heavy, great FT shooting, defense has really come together late in the season, and have that guy to take over the game late if necessary in Walton.
If the outside shooting goes cold this team can lose to anyone though. Strong post play will create problems too. Foul trouble also since this team really only wants to go 6 deep. Of all the possible draws I think this one best sets them up for a run. Kentucky, Arizona, or Duke round 2 would have been a taller order than Louisville. I also kinda really want revenge for '13.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Apparently they don't since it seems like at the top, the team above you has to lose before they even compare your team to them in the Committee's rankings. Basically they do rankings going into the conference tourney and don't want to alter them.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
I would really be interested in the before/after Trier playing breakdown. He's been a difference maker in the games I've seen and he's was out until mid-Jan.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Duke's run in the tournament was impressive, but they lost three of four before that. Those games weren't on January 23. UNC actually has a better record over its last 8 games than Duke (6-2 vs 5-3), arguably against a tougher schedule.Committee to Duke: when you lost to N.C. State at home on January 23, your seed was pretty much locked in, guys.
Committee to UNC: did you finish with *****ONLY***** four regular season losses in that conference?????? OMG SRSLY? Well, there's simply no need to examine things any further. Here's a ticket to the Elite Eight.
Every year.
Duke is a contender and is well set up for a run. They're the Vegas favorite and that's deserved, I consider them the favorite too But UNC outranks them in every relevant full season metric I can name: win percentage, conference win percentage, RPI, BPI, KenPom, and all four Sagarin metrics. There is no argument for seeding Duke ahead of UNC unless you want to seed the bracket based on Vegas odds, which would make the entire regular season meaningless.
Got tickets to the Friday games in Indy. Thinking about the Sunday game but don't want to drop cash unless I know Michigan is still in.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I really think the West is by far the weakest region. Gonzaga is the 4th rated 1 seed for good reason and Arizona is getting overhyped imo. They are a good team but the weakest of the 2 seeds. If Boucher doesn't get hurt I believe Oregon takes care of Arizona last Saturday. Arizona only beats Oregon by 3 without Boucher and needs to shoot 58% from the field to do so. Add in that Oregon had an off night shooting and the breaks just went Arizona's way.
I have no idea who comes out of the west this year, perhaps it is Florida State, Notre Dame, or West Virginia.
I have no idea who comes out of the west this year, perhaps it is Florida State, Notre Dame, or West Virginia.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Is everyone assuming Michigan beats Oklahoma state because of the run last weekend? Thought Ok state had been playing well until recent losses to ISU and Kansas all in close games.
Capella
Footballguy
Sammy3469
Footballguy
If you go by the committee rankings the West is fine, it's the 4/5 matchup in the Midwest where they messed up giving Kansas both the worst 4 (Purdue) and the worst 5 (Iowa St) along with putting the worst 6 (Creighton) there. That's the big flub of their backet especially since they could have flipped the best 5 (Virginia) from the East without any bracket repercussions.
Statorama
Footballguy
cheese
Footballguy
Ok well Oregon was also not an option and FSU is what happened. I personally don't buy FSU over UCLA but in either case they gave them the best 3 they could.
Capella
Footballguy
Scoresman
Footballguy
Gonzaga:
Offense: The key to their offense is really their bigs. Karnowski is shooting 60.1% from the floor and his NBA prospect backup Collins is shooting 65.3%. Jonathan Williams 59.9%. They also have likely All-American Nigel Williams-Goss running the offense at point guard. Behind him is Josh Perkins who can be streaky. The team went into an inexplicable lull for a couple games following the BYU loss, seeing lots more selfish play with less passing, but they got back into their groove in the WCC final against St. Mary's. Hopefully that sticks.
Defense: This is the area that I feel separates this team from previous Gonzaga teams. Simply put, this is the most efficient defense coach Mark Few has ever had. In previous years, the team would generally rely on one defensive specialist who needed to execute near perfect for the Zags to advance. This year, the roster is full of active, lengthy defenders and it has shown on the court.
How to beat them: Look at how BYU has beat them at home on Senior night 2 of the last 3 years. Forcing the Zags into a high possession game, making their bigs constantly having to defend the pick and roll, and shooting lights out. West Virginia is probably the team in the bracket I fear the most, followed by Florida State but that's just looking at tempo and other stats. Would love to hear from people who have watched these teams play.
Offense: The key to their offense is really their bigs. Karnowski is shooting 60.1% from the floor and his NBA prospect backup Collins is shooting 65.3%. Jonathan Williams 59.9%. They also have likely All-American Nigel Williams-Goss running the offense at point guard. Behind him is Josh Perkins who can be streaky. The team went into an inexplicable lull for a couple games following the BYU loss, seeing lots more selfish play with less passing, but they got back into their groove in the WCC final against St. Mary's. Hopefully that sticks.
Defense: This is the area that I feel separates this team from previous Gonzaga teams. Simply put, this is the most efficient defense coach Mark Few has ever had. In previous years, the team would generally rely on one defensive specialist who needed to execute near perfect for the Zags to advance. This year, the roster is full of active, lengthy defenders and it has shown on the court.
How to beat them: Look at how BYU has beat them at home on Senior night 2 of the last 3 years. Forcing the Zags into a high possession game, making their bigs constantly having to defend the pick and roll, and shooting lights out. West Virginia is probably the team in the bracket I fear the most, followed by Florida State but that's just looking at tempo and other stats. Would love to hear from people who have watched these teams play.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
UCLA is a scary team that can beat anybody. I like Oregon's draw in the Midwest as a 3 compared to UCLA'S draw in the south.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
can I get a cliff's notes on the KenPom hate? I read a couple pages back but it didn't really make sense. some Duke fan is pissed about their seeding (LMFAO, btw) and hates KenPom because some of his college buddies had the idea first?
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm generally a big KenPom guy, and I understand generally what he's trying to do. But this one has me baffled: can anyone explain how West Virginia is rated six spots higher than Kansas despite finishing four games behind them in conference in the regular season and having one of the weakest non-conference SOS in the nation (342 in his adjusted NCSOS ratings)? The obvious explanation would be that they won their 12 conference games by 40 points and their 6 losses were all close or something, and the losses were mostly close I guess, but that's not nearly enough to explain the disparity.
It looks to me like maybe part of it is that they don't take their foot off the gas in blowouts like some other teams. They have 4 wins by 45+ points (and a few others close to that mark), all in the early part of the season against cupcakes. Kansas, playing at a similar tempo, has none. My Heels, who play at a similar tempo and are similarly ranked in KenPom, have only one and it actually came in a conference game against a hated rival.
Long story short, I think they got their ranking in part by running up the score. So I'll be fading West Virginia. I usually look to KenPom to find underrated teams to ride but it won't be them.
(excited for this to get bumped at the end of the month when they're in the Final Four)
It looks to me like maybe part of it is that they don't take their foot off the gas in blowouts like some other teams. They have 4 wins by 45+ points (and a few others close to that mark), all in the early part of the season against cupcakes. Kansas, playing at a similar tempo, has none. My Heels, who play at a similar tempo and are similarly ranked in KenPom, have only one and it actually came in a conference game against a hated rival.
Long story short, I think they got their ranking in part by running up the score. So I'll be fading West Virginia. I usually look to KenPom to find underrated teams to ride but it won't be them.
(excited for this to get bumped at the end of the month when they're in the Final Four)
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Scoresman
Footballguy
Keep in mind kenpom made significant changes to their formula this year. The details are usually way over my head and he summed up the changes here.http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/
I wouldn't be surprised if they don't get past Bucknell. It is painful to watch this team recently.
The Commish
Footballguy
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
I went down a bit of a YouTube rabbit hole last night and was watching the 1996 selection show ... partly because I don''t think I ever saw it. I was on the road when UMass got the No. 1 overall seed.
It was pretty startling to have them go to Andrea Joyce in Kansas City and have her just breeze through the announcement and matchups in about 10 minutes. (I like Syracuse and Mississippi State as sleepers.) The whole show wrapped up in a half-hour.
It was pretty startling to have them go to Andrea Joyce in Kansas City and have her just breeze through the announcement and matchups in about 10 minutes. (I like Syracuse and Mississippi State as sleepers.) The whole show wrapped up in a half-hour.
MattFancy
Footballguy
The problem is those 3 teams could also lose in the first weekend. If I had to pick one of those 3, I could see WVU making a run. Arizona and Gonzaga seem like they are on a collision course for the Elite 8.