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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (2 Viewers)

Who is worse?

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TripItUp said:
I'd like to hear some thoughts on some of these potential matchups.

Duke/Michigan St.

Can anybody beat Kansas...looks like they have a cakewalk to the great 8

Can Purdue beat Villanova

Zags. vs Xavier, Zags seem to be the trendy pick
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Duke/Michigan St. - Have a tough time here too.  First inclination was Duke, but then I read a deeper analysis of Duke this year.  They've only been in six games in ACC play that were decided by 6 points or less, and lost all of them.  The common theme in these games is that the offense struggled at end of the games, with Grayson Allen having to play out of position at PG in crunch time, due to his experience that other players on the team lacked.  This resulted in Duke's TO% being uncharacteristically bad compared to previous Duke teams (because Allen's assist:turnover ratio is not good), especially in games where they are under pressure, which should describe most of the games they will play in the tournament.  So I'm now firmly on Michigan St.  Another factor in this is not having to root for Duke.  

Xavier/Gonzaga - Numbers-wise, Gonzaga wins the matchup here.  The Zags' great shooting vs. Xavier's triple digit shooting % defense ranking, a large turnover edge in favor of the Zags, and looking at Xavier's point distribution, they will not be able to take advantage of Gonzaga's main weakness on defense, 3 point shooting.  Outside of the numbers, I can't speak much to Xavier, but I can to Gonzaga.  In terms of potential, this team can win the National Championship.  They are that good.  They have been inconsistent over the year, however, as you would expect from a younger team, so it's hard to know what to expect.  The key seems to be the play of PG Josh Perkins.  He is a very Jekyll/Hyde player.  In one game he can look like Steph Curry, and in another you'll see him turn selfish, taking the worst shots imaginable for no good reason and turning the ball over a ton.   Gonzaga has been playing very well overall recently though, so I'm going with them in this game.    

 
MAC_32 said:
The biggest problem I had with my bracket is I think the game(s) deciding the region rep is sometime before the elite 8.

AZ/KY, Mich/NC, Nova/Wichita, and whoever survives round 2 in the Midwest.  All of Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State have tricky matchups.  If it's chalk then I think Duke emerges, but I'm expecting some problems for all of them.
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i got wichita losing early alot.  talk me into picking them.  i think west virigina is better and i even have marshall or murray state upsetting them in some brackets.

 
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TripItUp said:
I'd like to hear some thoughts on some of these potential matchups.

Duke/Michigan St.

Can anybody beat Kansas...looks like they have a cakewalk to the great 8

Can Purdue beat Villanova

Zags. vs Xavier, Zags seem to be the trendy pick
Click to expand...
Slight edge to Duke

Kansas will have their hands full with Penn. Line opened 16 in freefall.

Don't know much about Purdue but I say no.

Zags will be favored and will win.

 
Scoresman said:
Duke/Michigan St. - Have a tough time here too.  First inclination was Duke, but then I read a deeper analysis of Duke this year.  They've only been in six games in ACC play that were decided by 6 points or less, and lost all of them.  The common theme in these games is that the offense struggled at end of the games, with Grayson Allen having to play out of position at PG in crunch time, due to his experience that other players on the team lacked.  This resulted in Duke's TO% being uncharacteristically bad compared to previous Duke teams (because Allen's assist:turnover ratio is not good), especially in games where they are under pressure, which should describe most of the games they will play in the tournament.  So I'm now firmly on Michigan St.  Another factor in this is not having to root for Duke.  
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plus, there's no way he doesn't get kicked out of a game in this tournament

especially if it's chippy throughout and close late

 
TripItUp said:
Not really, for example they don’t fully account for Ayton’s maturation or a team’s key injuries. 

the efficiency metrics can be taken advantage of.
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I actually just listened to an interview with Pomeroy on the Bet The Process podcast, the ep before is an interview with Alan Boston. Good stuff.

Pomeroy agrees with you, at least in re: his metrics, he admits that it doesn't take everything into account. I'd imagine that closing betting lines are a better predictor than Pomeroy, as they're incorporating efficiency metrics, but also taking a lot of other factors into account as well.

But, a player's maturation is taken into account, in that recency is weighted. Another factor that isn't weighted is "styles make fights." Take two equal teams, and if Team A is incredible running the pnr and bad at everything else on offense, and Team B is good defensively at stopping the pnr, it'd stand to reason that team B should be the favorite.

Anyway if you wanna bet on a potential UVA/Zona matchup I'm game. :shrug:

 
So my wife and I are having our two cats fight it out with brackets this year.  Tonight we will be having them pick their brackets using kibble placed on top of an ipad with the teams' logo on the screen.  Whichever logo the cat goes to is their pick.  The winner gets a day of all you can eat treats and lots of belly rubs.  

 
need2know said:
i got wichita losing early alot.  talk me into picking them.  i think west virigina is better and i even have marshall or murray state upsetting them in some brackets.
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West Virginia's offense historically stems from their ability to create turnovers, something Wichita doesn't do much of.  Ultimately, I don't think the Mountaineers can keep up unless they do.  Wichita should shoot them out of the building.

 
Scoresman said:
So my wife and I are having our two cats fight it out with brackets this year.  Tonight we will be having them pick their brackets using kibble placed on top of an ipad with the teams' logo on the screen.  Whichever logo the cat goes to is their pick.  The winner gets a day of all you can eat treats and lots of belly rubs.  
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You/your wife, or the cats?

 
So, I have literally filled out almost 30 separate brackets today.  I may have gotten less done today than I will tomorrow or Friday.

 
MAC_32 said:
The biggest problem I had with my bracket is I think the game(s) deciding the region rep is sometime before the elite 8.

AZ/KY, Mich/NC, Nova/Wichita, and whoever survives round 2 in the Midwest.  All of Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State have tricky matchups.  If it's chalk then I think Duke emerges, but I'm expecting some problems for all of them.
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How confident are you with your bracket?

 
I've been watching the tournament my whole life yet I don't have a Capital One card, don't have Geico as an insurance carrier, and have never owned a Buick. 

Good job advertising nerds! 

 
brohans i am totally useless the next two days of the year i take off of work and just watch and have some skis with my brohans life is good i hope that you all have a heck of the next two days and be good out there take that to the bank brasketballfanhans 

 
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