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NCAA Week 10 (1 Viewer)

Yeah the small slate makes a world of difference. The way my self allowed bankroll is dwindling, it may just be time for me to bow out of cfb until next year. 2 weeks of no wins is not good for confidence or pocket book. The resources available are great. I just have a certain set of skills that makes me a nightmare for my own dfs game.

 
The challenge with the small slates is that you have to be absolutely perfect. I still will make a strong case that Western Michigan was the right play today as you look at the spreads and there was no way to predict that Western Michigan would only get one half of work in the game. Had the game at least been remotely competitive, Terrell would have likely exceeded Stidham's performance as they weren't that far apart. Corey Davis was great, and the primarily reason I'm breaking even, but would have been a great night had the game stayed competitive.

Baylor -17

Western Michigan -15

Duke check your DM's when you get a chance.

 
I agree it was the right play. I luckily had Davis. I just convinced myself on my own doing that Braverman would have a Braverman like day.

 
Butler did a little work and it was just enough for me to squeak into the money in a gpp. So you are telling me there is a chance....

 
128 wasn't enough for my cash games to hit. Fortunately I only played two.

Hit in half of my gpps, but $10 was the max individual haul. Was sitting in first thru third in multiple contests for awhile but got steamrolled at RB. I had a unique lineup but notice a group of five different users with the same lineup past me by a.5 pt.

Two of my three Tue-Thur gpps hit. Kind of threw those teams together on my own and they didn't have Davis.

 
I struggled in cash as well but had a few Coleman/Davis/Cannon/Weiser combos in low dollar tourneys which paid off. I had also seen something on twitter right before the games about the Baylor coach talking up usage of Stidham which got me to add him to a few lineups and pivot off some of my Linwood shares, which was key.

Not playing much tonight, it's pretty gross.

 
dbart said:
I struggled in cash as well but had a few Coleman/Davis/Cannon/Weiser combos in low dollar tourneys which paid off. I had also seen something on twitter right before the games about the Baylor coach talking up usage of Stidham which got me to add him to a few lineups and pivot off some of my Linwood shares, which was key.

Not playing much tonight, it's pretty gross.
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What's interesting is that Linwood had 27 carries against Iowa State last week, and Stidham only threw one pass in the second half. I thought they would ease Stidham and utilize the run game more than they did.

Weiser, Davis, Terrell, and Jackson/Butler were enough for me to end up slightly positive on the day.

 
I had the Stidham, Coleman stack plus Davis plus Weiser at TE and this was only good for 4th and 5th place in very low level 100 man leagues. 158 points total. It is pretty tough to win these.

 
Most weeks reliably productive RBs are gold in small slates. If you did that Tuesday or Thursday you were sunk.

Are we assuming Jahad Thomas plays tonight?

 
Alright. I think I found my sketchy underpriced WR for the Saturday. ANy thoughts on Mitchell Page for Indiana, Devin?

 
Wouldn't be a week without the Nixon special. At least this isn't Pierson-El again as I would have done this :wall: .

I don't hate Mitchell Paige this week, I just question his touchdown ability as he is only 5'7 165 lbs. To me he is more of a DK play than a FD play due to the full point ppr.

Regarding Jahad Thomas, the projections have him playing, I have him in a few thursday-friday lineups on FantasyAces so I hope he plays, but one of those things that it is difficult to truly know.

 
Ah, be fair. Pierson-El had a reception on the first drive before he got hurt. Then the Huskers went on to score like 50 points, scoreboard calls it a loss, but I think I did a pretty good job of identifying the opportunity, and I think he would have produced had he not got hurt (again).

Interesting on Paige. Admittedly I only really look at depth charts and target numbers .

 
The only thing that is "safe" is not playing, this is the worst slate I can remember in a long time. I still like Algernon Brown a lot, as Hine hasn't practiced all week, I don't see him getting a significant number of carries. Ervin is the only RB with guaranteed volume

 
I had already entered about 30 contests prior to deciding I wasnt playing. Couldn't bring myself to cancel them.

Any thoughts on QB? Seems just as bad as RB.

 
I dumped a few teams in the FD $200 Q as there was big overlay only 50/80. We'll see currently in the top 5 but a lot of time to go

 
Courtland Sutton likely gonna kill my teams. Amazing SMU puts up 40 and he doesn't do much.

Still have a chance at the Q if Freeman and Ervin go nuts, but will need huge games.

 
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Anyone see any holes here...

Boykin

Michael

Richard

Turpin

Williams

Rivercraft

Henry

Ward

Horton

Michael

Doctson

Ayers

Turpin

Scheu

 
The bottom one scares me for cash. Horton is playing what should be a tough Georgia defense, Ward doesnt need Ayers to put up 40 points, and Turpin is the 3rd option in the offense.

 
The early slate write up was pretty high on him because of the price, he's not Patrick last week though. When I commented about the lineup it was because of the combination of all three guys on the same 50/50 lineup. Jackson hasnt been very good this year, I dont see any reason he turns it around today.

 
your dismissal of turpin as "the third option in the offense" seems a little strange to me considering he's min priced, may actually end up being the 2nd option and is on a team that throws a ton and is projected to score 40 pts this week. not saying i necessarily think hes a great play or anything.

 
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NixonMask said:
The early slate write up was pretty high on him because of the price, he's not Patrick last week though. When I commented about the lineup it was because of the combination of all three guys on the same 50/50 lineup. Jackson hasnt been very good this year, I dont see any reason he turns it around today.
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besides the games they lost...he gets a lot of carries atleast over 20 today. his ceiling is 35 carries per game

 
sooted72 said:
your dismissal of turpin as "the third option in the offense" seems a little strange to me considering he's min priced, may actually end up being the 2nd option and is on a team that throws a ton and is projected to score 40 pts this week. not saying i necessarily think hes a great play or anything.
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I have him in my cash lineup too, my concern was just the combination of 3 higher variance players in the same lineup
 
At $4,100 on DraftKings I really like Horton. UGA's numbers have been artificially inflated as they have really only faced three good running backs this season. Henry went for 150, Kelvin Taylor went for 125, and Jalen Hurd had 100 total yards. Horton also has the ability to catch the ball which should provide some nice points for him.

 
which combo do you like better for fd cash games? clement/gesicki or michel/henry? right now leaning towards an even split.

 
Devin Knotts said:
At $4,100 on DraftKings I really like Horton. UGA's numbers have been artificially inflated as they have really only faced three good running backs this season. Henry went for 150, Kelvin Taylor went for 125, and Jalen Hurd had 100 total yards. Horton also has the ability to catch the ball which should provide some nice points for him.
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these are all good points and kentucky is projected to scored 3 tds today. man i love this play in theory but i dont think i can pull the trigger.

 
That's who I plugged in. I'm at a theme park furiously fixing lineups which is far from optimal. I would think Erickson benefits too

 
Wow, I had Clement on almost every team (80% clement, 20% Michel). All the talk was how he wasn't 100% but was feeling good.

This is why I hate college beat reporters. You should realistically be able to know if a player did not travel.

 
They didn't release it until well after rosters locked too. Just benefits no one not to release that sooner

 
I just question what a "Beat Writer" does when they can't even report whether or not a player traveled with the team.

Most NFL beat writers are at the team hotel making sure everyone is there trying to get quotes from the team. Just amazing that a beat reporter can't get to the team hotel before the team checks in, or gets up early and checks to make sure that all the key players have traveled. Or heaven forbid could they at least not openly lie in their newspaper reports saying that x player was feeling good and see an increased workload this week.

 
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Wanted to give some more background on the Mikel Horton situation and our projections/IVC.

We had him at 95 yards which clearly was a miss. One of things we use in our metrics to attempt to determine game script/game flow is the Las Vegas lines. If I can find a way to determine game flow/game script better than Vegas I'll be on the first flight out to Vegas to beat the casinos sportsbetting. Vegas had this game as a 14 point spread and Kentucky scoring 22 points. Obviously the under hit and hit in a big way which absolutely killed game script. We had him at 16 carries which would have likely occurred had the game been closer.

Another metric that we use is an opponent adjusted matchup rating. What this is, is it essentially looks at your average rushing yards/passing yards per game and then adjusts it for the opponents you have faced. For example, in the Pac-12 are they some of the best run defenses in the country or is it because they have only faced passing teams this season. If they all had the best run defenses in the country Royce Freeman would not be having the success that he is having. Other sites only look at average rushing yards allowed and average passing yards allowed and in this Horton situation would have been right, but it would consistently severely underrate players such as Freeman who are in a passing league. I gave a breakdown on Georgia's adjusted matchup above.

 
Here is one of my lineups on DraftKings. I am a little bit worried about spending so much on Freeman and Elliott, but there just aren't that many premiere players in the night slate, so the differential between those two is pretty severe compared to everyone else on this slate.

QB Kyler Murray AUB@TA&M $7,400 swap out
QB Jared Goff CAL@ORE $7,900 swap out
RB Royce Freeman CAL@ORE $8,500 swap out
RB Ezekiel Elliott MINN@OSU $8,400 swap out
WR Mark Andrews ISU@OU $3,000 swap out
WR R.J. Shelton MSU@NEB $4,000 swap out
WR Deontay Burnett AZ@USC $3,500 swap out
FLEX Imani Cross MSU@NEB $3,300 swap out
FLEX Bryce Treggs CAL@ORE $4,000
 
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With the way this game has started it's definitely possible for 60+. Gonna need him to do it in a few places that I had Clement :wall: :wall: :wall:

 
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