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NCAA Week 7 (1 Viewer)

NixonMask

NixonMask

Footballguy
Sites wont post for another day or two. Below are the Thursday/Friday games, hoping we get the full slate.

Auburn -2.5 Kentucky
Western Kentucky -24 North Texas
Stanford -4.5 UCLA
BYU -7 Cincinnati
Houston -14 Tulane
Boise State -8 Utah State
Fresno State -1 UNLV

The game that really sticks out is Houston only 14 point favorites at Tulane. That line should be closer to 5 TDs, not 2.

 
NixonMask said:
Sites wont post for another day or two. Below are the Thursday/Friday games, hoping we get the full slate.

Auburn -2.5 Kentucky

Western Kentucky -24 North Texas

Stanford -4.5 UCLA

BYU -7 Cincinnati

Houston -14 Tulane

Boise State -8 Utah State

Fresno State -1 UNLV

The game that really sticks out is Houston only 14 point favorites at Tulane. That line should be closer to 5 TDs, not 2.
Click to expand...
Initial thoughts. 14 is extremely low, almost scary low.

Love Peyton Barber, should grade out very strong once we update the projections.

Whoever is starting at QB for Cincinnati should be in a good position.

Hard to discount what Jeremy McNichols is doing, matchup is tough, but he's been great.

 
Completely agree, the line just doesnt make sense. Tulane is actively awful and Houston has one of the best offenses in the country (Certainly better than anything Tulane has any chance to keep up with). Checking the schedule they play Central Florida after Tulane so the bookmakers cant be afraid theyre looking ahead. There isnt any weather expected. Something has to be going on with it though, the bookmakers clearly want money coming in on Houston.

 
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This is crazy. Three of the Thursday slate opening games have already moved a full touchdown. Houston was not one of them.

 
I know Western Kentucky is -24 over North Texas, but they have a very high powered offense. They are 5-1 and have won their last 3 games by 30 or more pts. North Texas is not very good this year.

 
Devin, I realize youre probably still working on the projections. I was just hoping for any input on the quarterback and running back options for the slate. I am leaning Doughty as my cash QB and Gordon and Brown at RB. I know you mentioned you thought Barber would grade well, I can afford him, is it clear hes going to grade higher than either of the other guys, or is it still too early in the week to know?

Edit: Fanduel scoring

 
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Can't believe they are starting this slate on Tue. Thoughts on this lineup.

  • QB
    Greg Ward Jr.
    HOU @ TLANETHIS FRIDAY 9PM EDT
  • RB
    Xavier Johnson
    SBAMA V ARKST8PM EDT
  • RB
    D'Andre Ferby
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT
  • WR
    Devonte Boyd
    UNLV @ FRSNOTHIS FRIDAY 10:30PM EDT
  • WR
    Thomas Sperbeck
    BOISE @ UTSTTHIS FRIDAY 9PM EDT
  • WR
    Taywan Taylor
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT
  • TE
    Tyler Higbee
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT

 
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I'm thinking pay up for the QB and TE. TE seems to be the key to weather or not I cash. I've taken far too many donuts here and almost always win something when I post double digit TE points. From there I just took guys who have had big games earlier in the year but got their price pushed down after getting pummeled by the top 30 FBS schools.

 
There will also be a Thursday Friday slate. I am heading to the Cubs playoff game tonight, so I won't be available for any Q&A. This week we aren't going to be covering the Tuesday-Friday slate, only the Thur-Fri, but going forward we are going to evaluate the interest in this slate to see if it is something that we should be working on to cover instead of the Thur-Fri slate, the challenge is the turnaround time is tight from the time the salaries are released to the time the game starts.

QB- Ward or Doughty take your pick. I prefer Ward due to his rushing ability.

RB- Peyton Barber seems to be a great play this week, Algernon Brown is a great play, I don't love Farrow, but hard to discount what he has been doing finding the end zone.

At tight end, Gerald Everett is the must play of the day at $2k.

Will try to break down the WR soon

 
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I'll add my 2 cents here...

I like Gordon tonight a lot. I'm entering a pair of entries into the $27 GPP on DK tonight for the T-Th slate, and he's in both lineups. In one of the two, I'm rolling with Xavier Johnson. In the other, I have Clements stacked with Magee and Everett. Not sure if USA will go pass-heavy or run-heavy, but the pieces are priced right either way you go and allow you to roster some other top guys if it hits either way.

Depending upon how tonight goes, I can decide whether to stick with Doughty (if things go well) in one or both lineups or if I need to swing for the fences with my remaining options (if things go poorly), I'll probably go with Towles, the WKU running backs and some boom/bust guys.

 
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BassNBrew said:
Can't believe they are starting this slate on Tue. Thoughts on this lineup.

  • QB
    Greg Ward Jr.
    HOU @ TLANETHIS FRIDAY 9PM EDT
  • RB
    Xavier Johnson
    SBAMA V ARKST8PM EDT
  • RB
    D'Andre Ferby
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT
  • WR
    Devonte Boyd
    UNLV @ FRSNOTHIS FRIDAY 10:30PM EDT
  • WR
    Thomas Sperbeck
    BOISE @ UTSTTHIS FRIDAY 9PM EDT
  • WR
    Taywan Taylor
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT
  • TE
    Tyler Higbee
    WKU @ NOTEXTHIS THURSDAY 7:30PM EDT
Click to expand...
Ferby's a little scary to me. He got dinged last week and Wales looked good taking his place. I believe Wales was ahead of him on the depth chart prior to going down with a hamstring injury during the preseason also. This will be Wales' third week back and I think at the very least he'll end up forcing pretty close to a 50/50 committee. So you've got a committee back in a pass-heavy offense. Even if the game script turns run-heavy with a big lead in the second half, they might give Wales the carries to help him round back into form. Especially with Ferby getting dinged last week.

 
NixonMask said:
Sites wont post for another day or two. Below are the Thursday/Friday games, hoping we get the full slate.

Auburn -2.5 Kentucky

Western Kentucky -24 North Texas

Stanford -4.5 UCLA

BYU -7 Cincinnati

Houston -14 Tulane

Boise State -8 Utah State

Fresno State -1 UNLV

The game that really sticks out is Houston only 14 point favorites at Tulane. That line should be closer to 5 TDs, not 2.
Click to expand...
If Kiel starts you have to pass on Cincy for now. He's already started like 4 or 5 games that he hasn't finished over 2 seasons. The risk of him leaving early is too high.
 
Its definitely worth noting the line movement for tonights game. It opened with an O/U of 50.5 and is up to 60. South Alabama opened as a 1 point favorite, then Arkansas State swung to a 6 point favorite, and the line is now back down to Arkansas State -4.

 
As far as FD, it looks like their biggest tourneys this week are Thursday only and Friday only.

They do have a couple small Tues-Fri ones, but if you aren't feeling real confident about locking in this early with a pretty big slate of games. No real harm in waiting. Just miss a couple small $5,000 prize pool tourneys with the $50-60,000 tourneys coming up later in the week.

That said, if you have your heart set on playing tonight...

-I would pass on McNichols. Not enough info regarding his concussion to lock him in. I like the mid-priced RB trio of Farrow, Gordon and Algernon. Won't try to talk you out of any of the top priced bigger name guys though.

-At QB, I think you just pay up for either Ward or Doughty. If Doughty, pair him with either Dangerfield or Taylor. Possibly Higbee at TE. I like going minimum with Everett at TE though. With Ward, you don't have to stack him due to his rushing ability but Ayers is a decent option if you od.

-Cheap TE and mid-priced RBs allow you to get a pair of top WRs (Dangerfield, Taylor, Sperbeck, Ayers, Washington, etc. are all strong options). I like Dorian Baker as my cheap WR3, but there are a number of viable guys there also including Norris from WKU if you pass on Higbee and want a 2nd pass catcher.

For reference, I put the following lineup into the $10 Tues. GPP: Doughty, Farrow, Gordon, Taylor, Washington, Baker, Everett.

 
I would avoid using him or Palandech on FanDuel as there is only 1 QB.

On DraftKings, I fully expect we know before any games start tomorrow, I would leave $100 out there to easily swap if possible.

I am seeing mixed sources on this one, the Las Vegas Review said that the coach is going to stick with Palandech even though Decker is healthy, but am seeing another source saying it will be Decker

I am avoiding it in general, but whoever it is makes a great GPP play against an awful Fresno Defense.

Here is my DK lineup.

QB Brandon Doughty 30.3 swap out
QB Gunner Kiel 15.0 swap out
RB Anthony Wales 9.3 swap out
RB Marteze Waller 12.6 swap out
WR Devonte Boyd 13.2 swap out
WR Jamire Jordan 13.4 swap out
WR Mitch Mathews 16.7 swap out
FLEX Tyler Higbee 19.5 swap out
FLEX Keith Whitely 11.7
 
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I am nervous for tonight

So much left over cash

I just want solid cash games tonight

Obviously greg at QB

Houk at tight end

Brown at RB

Everything else is a toss up

 
Went to bed in first in a few FanDuel GPP's, then Christian McCaffrey happened. The two garbage touchdowns by Carlos Harris hurt me.

Decent night though, had the following players.

Doughty

Anthony Wales

Boom Williams

Taywan Taylor

Ricardo Louis

Nicholas Norris

Tyler Higbee

 
Devin Knotts said:
Went to bed in first in a few FanDuel GPP's, then Christian McCaffrey happened. The two garbage touchdowns by Carlos Harris hurt me.

Decent night though, had the following players.

Doughty

Anthony Wales

Boom Williams

Taywan Taylor

Ricardo Louis

Nicholas Norris

Tyler Higbee
Click to expand...
Well thanks to you mostly I was 100% in my cash games and 2 for 3 in my gpp.

I've got a Tue-Fri gpp team in 9th with Ayers and Waller left that will be finn to watch.

 
BassNBrew said:
Devin Knotts said:
Went to bed in first in a few FanDuel GPP's, then Christian McCaffrey happened. The two garbage touchdowns by Carlos Harris hurt me.

Decent night though, had the following players.

Doughty

Anthony Wales

Boom Williams

Taywan Taylor

Ricardo Louis

Nicholas Norris

Tyler Higbee
Click to expand...
Well thanks to you mostly I was 100% in my cash games and 2 for 3 in my gpp.

I've got a Tue-Fri gpp team in 9th with Ayers and Waller left that will be finn to watch.
Click to expand...
Good to hear, and good luck tonight, hopefully Ayers goes off for you

 
Nothing on McNichols. Still questionable with a head injury. Chances are we wont know until right before lineups lock

 
Thats up to you. If hes healthy hes probably the best play on the board. Personally Im going with Farrow and Brown at RB for cash and UNLV's RB and Brown at RB for my GPP.

If theres strong word one way or another on the Boise situation I may change.

 
The matchup for McNichols is not an ideal one even if he was 100% healthy. Utah State held Devontae Booker to under 4 yards per carry, Marteze Waller to under 3 yards per carry, Myles Gaskin to under 3 yards per carry.

I am fading McNichols tonight.

 
NixonMask said:
Devin, is there any reason to think Javin Webb isnt the primary backup RB in Houston?
Click to expand...
Depends your definition of "Primary Backup". I'm going under the assumption that if Farrow were to get hurt who is the must play guy. To me that guy is Ryan Jackson.

The reason for this is that Javin Webb is a change of pace guy and at 5'8 175lbs, I don't believe he is the guy that you want running between the tackles 15-20 times per game. Jackson is not much bigger at 5'10 190lbs but has shown the ability to have 14-18 carries per game.

 
NixonMask said:
Mostly just looking at the junk time RB. Im thinking that guy gets 2 full quarters tonight
Click to expand...
Unfortunately don't think there is a single guy, I think that both Webb and Jackson will get 10-15 carries if the game is a blowout. Would be careful with this strategy as the spread is only 21 which is not a guarantee to get two full quarters tonight.

When Farrow was suspended for the first quarter last week, Jackson got all the work. If I had to pick one though, Webb is more guaranteed to get touches due to him being a change of pace running back instead of the true backup so he has a set of plays designed in the game plan for him.

 
Appreciate it. I still dont think the line is anywhere close to reality. Its moved 5 points to Houston and the O/U dropped by 5. Houstons starters are staying in the game if theyre only up by 21, and if Houstons starters are playing the whole game theyre putting up a whole lot more than 40 points on Tulane.

 
Caught one small overlay on fan duel. 157 entires of 279 filled. Managed to get two teams in. I wasn't even looking at the entries, just clicking trying to get as many previous entries as I could into this contest.

 
Devin Knotts said:
NixonMask said:
Sites wont post for another day or two. Below are the Thursday/Friday games, hoping we get the full slate.

Auburn -2.5 Kentucky

Western Kentucky -24 North Texas

Stanford -4.5 UCLA

BYU -7 Cincinnati

Houston -14 Tulane

Boise State -8 Utah State

Fresno State -1 UNLV

The game that really sticks out is Houston only 14 point favorites at Tulane. That line should be closer to 5 TDs, not 2.
Click to expand...
Initial thoughts. 14 is extremely low, almost scary low.

Love Peyton Barber, should grade out very strong once we update the projections.

Whoever is starting at QB for Cincinnati should be in a good position.

Hard to discount what Jeremy McNichols is doing, matchup is tough, but he's been great.
Click to expand...
Thx to both of you:

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)[113] HOUSTON -19-103

[51] OTTAWA SENATORS +106

100 / 306

 
chet said:
Devin Knotts said:
NixonMask said:
Sites wont post for another day or two. Below are the Thursday/Friday games, hoping we get the full slate.

Auburn -2.5 Kentucky

Western Kentucky -24 North Texas

Stanford -4.5 UCLA

BYU -7 Cincinnati

Houston -14 Tulane

Boise State -8 Utah State

Fresno State -1 UNLV

The game that really sticks out is Houston only 14 point favorites at Tulane. That line should be closer to 5 TDs, not 2.
Click to expand...
Initial thoughts. 14 is extremely low, almost scary low.

Love Peyton Barber, should grade out very strong once we update the projections.

Whoever is starting at QB for Cincinnati should be in a good position.

Hard to discount what Jeremy McNichols is doing, matchup is tough, but he's been great.
Click to expand...
Thx to both of you:

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)[113] HOUSTON -19-103

[51] OTTAWA SENATORS +106

100 / 306
Click to expand...
I havent bet much in a few years but knew that line stunk to high heaven. Ill take it as a victory I thought Houston should be 35 point favorites and thats exactly what the game ended up being.

BassNBrew said:
Tonite is going to smart.
Click to expand...
And Ill take that as a victory because Farrow is probably going to cost me my Friday slate games too. The margins are just so small on these small slates. Im locked and ready to ride Dak Prescott and Derrick Henry to a profitable Saturday though.

Edit: For anyone playing tomorrow that needs a min salary guy on Fanduel they still havent adjusted Calvin Ridleys price. Hes won me alot of money the last 2 weeks, dont like him as much this week as the last two. but the pricing is still nuts.

 
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He had been until last week. Devin can correct me if Im wrong, but the projections require a few weeks of previous results to include a player. Im definitely using him though.

 
Tue-Fri slate ended up being profitable. 4th in the redshirt. 2 for 3 in 50/50s. Placed in 4 of 5 gpp. $13 turned into $57.

Fri slate turned out OK. $28 in $48 out.

As an fyi…I didn't even watch a college football game until 2 weeks ago. I'm somewhere north of $400 in profit playing mostly $2 gap and some $1 / $2 50/50s. 80% Devin's projections, 10% reading this thread, 10% picking guys based on the FD stats and news. Major thanks to Devin and to MT pointing me to this opportunity in a FFA thread.

 
NixonMask said:
He had been until last week. Devin can correct me if Im wrong, but the projections require a few weeks of previous results to include a player. Im definitely using him though.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I get worried when I don't see an obvious play on the IVCs.

 
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