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Baylor is unfortunately off this weekend, so we will have to see where Stidham is priced next weekend.
I'm definitely down with Jones on DK, that price, game flow, his running ability all have me thinking there's no way he's not hitting value
That would definitely downgrade Johnson if he plays.
Mostly a combination of having a one game sample size to work off of as well as the reliance on a big play. Players such as this with huge upside/volatility are often going to be under valued on the IVC as one of the complaints early on the season was that we were being too aggressive in projections so consistently someone who had one big game would be our #1 player overall. So we made the adjustment to increase the volatility reduction in our calculation to reflect what his true game is likely to be. If he has another big game and shows consistency you will see his IVC go up. It is very similar to the reason that he is still under priced across the industry.
Last five games he hasn't had less than four TDs and 400 yards. Tonite makes 6. He may be 12K next week and I'll work him into a lineup.
Yes, for the Saturday games, we typically will make an update on Friday (working on this now), with all the injury situations once we get practice reports. Originally it did not look like Perkins was going to play, but he has been upgraded to probable this week.
Sure would be happy to discuss this.
I'm not sure I'd pursue conference / non-conference games. Was WV pass defense really that good or do they have inflated stats due to the opposition? There's such a wide variance in college offenses. The difference in throwing capabilities between the top and bottom college QBs is enormous. Does your model take into account the opposition the opposition has faced when establishing ratings for thins like pass / rush defense? I'd much rather have a non-conference game in the model if it better mimics the upcoming game you are projecting.
Nice work here! Tailed this LU for the most part (slight change at TE, didn't help as he got zero points) and cashed in all 50/50s and Doubles, even got 2nd in a 10-player league with a score of 126. Got a bit nervous about not having a share of TCU passing offense, but the 3OT in Arizona made up for it.
We use a metric that compares the teams passing yards allowed in that game compared to the average passing yards for the season. So for example, Mason Rudolph for Oklahoma State had 218 yards passing against West Virginia in week 7. Now we are comparing that to a season average of 274 yards per game, so the West Virginia pass defense for that game gets an increase. Conversely, Seth Russell had 380 yards passing against West Virginia when on the season he averages 350. So it takes all of that into consideration.
That lineup only scored 116. When did you play these 50/50 and doubles that cashed? Everything I entered was 120+ on 50/50 cash.
