NCAA Week 9 (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

Hey guys I am one of the CFB writers here at FBG and cover mainly the Pac-12 games but I play in all the slates. Here is my cash game lineup for FanDuel.

QB Terrell WMU 8200 - stacking the entire passing game with Terrell/Davis/Braverman
RB Breida GSOUT 8200 - He was my automatic lock for this slate. 100+ yards and 2 TDs
RB Green TCU 6800 - Fading the TCU passing game because of the high prices and hoping it is a big running game.
WR White ARZST 5300 - After watching the Utah game where White looked explosive on return TD. Seeing targets
WR C.Davis WMU 6000 - I would love to have Doctson but I think Davis/Braverman can do more as a combo together
WR Braverman WMU 8500 - Guy always finds the endzone, seems like the safest cash game.
TE Orndoff PITT 2000 - Min salary and 3 touchdowns on the year. Not hoping for much here.

Nice work here! Tailed this LU for the most part (slight change at TE, didn't help as he got zero points) and cashed in all 50/50s and Doubles, even got 2nd in a 10-player league with a score of 126. Got a bit nervous about not having a share of TCU passing offense, but the 3OT in Arizona made up for it.

That lineup only scored 116. When did you play these 50/50 and doubles that cashed? Everything I entered was 120+ on 50/50 cash.

Ah, that's right I swapped in Johnson for BUF at RB2.

 

[NixonMask]

Looks like this is the idea lineup for Friday based on IVC, any upgrades to be made? Still has $1,200 left.

Jackson

Dixon, Newsome

Thomas, Turner, Brown

Crum

Driskel is a must play for cash games IMO. Highest floor and he could go nuts

 

[Devin Knotts]

IVC's are now updated.

Agree Driskel is a must play in cash, Jackson is more of a GPP

This slate sucks so don't go crazy with your bankroll.

Here are our writeup for this slate as well as what we wrote for yesterday.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=DKCFBWeek9Thur

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=FDCFBWeek9Thur

 

[jandyt]

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

 

[Devin Knotts]

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

The problem with this slate in cash games is that Driskel and Dixon will be 90-100% owned, so it is going to come down to 2v2 or 3v3 of guys who are highly volatile. I like this lineup, but this is as bad as it comes when it comes to 3 game slates.

I very rarely sit out any slate, but I think I am sitting this one out. Will still be working on stuff for tomorrow and be around here all night so if you want to play, go for it and I can answer any questions you may have.

 

[NixonMask]

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

The problem with this slate in cash games is that Driskel and Dixon will be 90-100% owned, so it is going to come down to 2v2 or 3v3 of guys who are highly volatile. I like this lineup, but this is as bad as it comes when it comes to 3 game slates.

I very rarely sit out any slate, but I think I am sitting this one out. Will still be working on stuff for tomorrow and be around here all night so if you want to play, go for it and I can answer any questions you may have.

I do think this poses some nice GPP value though. Fade the LA Tech passing game in one lineup with Dixon and then fade Dixon in another with Driskel and at least 2 WR

 

[NixonMask]

Crum was just suspended fornotights game. Towbridge likely TE one for Lou tonight.

 

[jandyt]

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

The problem with this slate in cash games is that Driskel and Dixon will be 90-100% owned, so it is going to come down to 2v2 or 3v3 of guys who are highly volatile. I like this lineup, but this is as bad as it comes when it comes to 3 game slates.

I very rarely sit out any slate, but I think I am sitting this one out. Will still be working on stuff for tomorrow and be around here all night so if you want to play, go for it and I can answer any questions you may have.

Thanks I'm going play a couple games just to make Friday football more interesting. If I can win a little then it will be more interesting.

 

[James Daulton]

Big overlay in the Fanduel Friday $2 GPP for 5 more minutes.

 

[NixonMask]

I'm not going to dig through the other hundred, but the first 50/50 I checked only had Driskel at 67%. Dixon 85%, Brown 50%, Taylor 75%, Mays 67%

 

[DukeBroadway]

I dont know how this will affect Pierson El, but Armstrong is out ans Ryker Fife is the qb tomorrow.

 

[NixonMask]

Since Im the one who keeps bringing him up Ill say that Im excited about it. He was a risky longshot GPP play anyway, the only thing that changes is now I get to stack him with a minimum salary walk on QB that anyone with common sense knows better than to roster. If the pair hook up for 2 TDs its money, if Pierson doesnt score the lineup wasnt cashing anyway.

 

[James Daulton]

Big overlay in the Fanduel Friday $2 GPP for 5 more minutes.

This only filled 20k out of 28k slots.

 

[Devin Knotts]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

 

[jandyt]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

The double on DK I'm in he is 70% owned, the GPP 54%. Still very glad I have him. Thanks

 

[James Daulton]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

I have him in all 4 of my lineups and he's paying off great. Thanks for all your research and time.

 

[Devin Knotts]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

The double on DK I'm in he is 70% owned, the GPP 54%. Still very glad I have him. Thanks

That's disappointing, I only did the $2 to track the ownership % but it sounds like it's way off.

I typically will play $5-10k a slate, so shows you how much I wanted to avoid this slate.

 

[DukeBroadway]

I strayed and went mays. My wr did crap so it didnt matter in the end

 

[BassNBrew]

crum did me in but I took Devin's advice and only had $2 rolling.

 

[NixonMask]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

The double on DK I'm in he is 70% owned, the GPP 54%. Still very glad I have him. Thanks

That's disappointing, I only did the $2 to track the ownership % but it sounds like it's way off.

I typically will play $5-10k a slate, so shows you how much I wanted to avoid this slate.

Jesus christ man, I thought I was starting to get big time with my $200 dollars a slate.

 

[BassNBrew]

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

The problem with this slate in cash games is that Driskel and Dixon will be 90-100% owned, so it is going to come down to 2v2 or 3v3 of guys who are highly volatile. I like this lineup, but this is as bad as it comes when it comes to 3 game slates.

I very rarely sit out any slate, but I think I am sitting this one out. Will still be working on stuff for tomorrow and be around here all night so if you want to play, go for it and I can answer any questions you may have.

Kudos for pointing this out to us.

 

[BassNBrew]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

The double on DK I'm in he is 70% owned, the GPP 54%. Still very glad I have him. Thanks

That's disappointing, I only did the $2 to track the ownership % but it sounds like it's way off.

I typically will play $5-10k a slate, so shows you how much I wanted to avoid this slate.

Jesus christ man, I thought I was starting to get big time with my $200 dollars a slate.

Yeah, I read that and thought 50% of the action I'm rolling against is coming from Devin.

 

[NixonMask]

I hope those playing started Newsome who was our number one running back on this slate on the IVC and projections. He was only 18% owned in the $2 GPP, which is paying off nicely.

The double on DK I'm in he is 70% owned, the GPP 54%. Still very glad I have him. Thanks

That's disappointing, I only did the $2 to track the ownership % but it sounds like it's way off.

I typically will play $5-10k a slate, so shows you how much I wanted to avoid this slate.

Jesus christ man, I thought I was starting to get big time with my $200 dollars a slate.

Yeah, I read that and thought 50% of the action I'm rolling against is coming from Devin.

Probably why there was so much overlay on the GPPs. All the sharks jumped out of the water for a "safer" slates tomorrow.

Feel like it is easier than most slates to get under cap(without punts) but also feel it is tougher to find any clear great plays, particularly at WR.

My current DK lineup(if I choose to play this slate)

Driskel

D Jackson

Mays

Newsom

Quick

Serigne

Taylor

Dixon

Radcliff

The problem with this slate in cash games is that Driskel and Dixon will be 90-100% owned, so it is going to come down to 2v2 or 3v3 of guys who are highly volatile. I like this lineup, but this is as bad as it comes when it comes to 3 game slates.

I very rarely sit out any slate, but I think I am sitting this one out. Will still be working on stuff for tomorrow and be around here all night so if you want to play, go for it and I can answer any questions you may have.

Kudos for pointing this out to us.

Totally agree. This is the kind of thing that helps me the most, I can watch a game and know who is good and who isnt, but DFS from a purely game theory perspective is where Im sure most of us, certainly myself anyway, are the weakest.

 

[BassNBrew]

Any work on Delvin Cook. Didn't see him on the IVC.

Also why so low on Perine?

 

[DukeBroadway]

Devin, would you be able to go into some detail about what makes Christian Kirk the top H-Val wr on the early slate? Running qb set to take over and a team projected total of 21.5. Last week I took a chance hoping that Texas A&M could toss it around like Memphis did vs Ole Miss, but that didnt pan out. Does this just come down to a match up with a lesser D?

 

[Devin Knotts]

Devin, would you be able to go into some detail about what makes Christian Kirk the top H-Val wr on the early slate? Running qb set to take over and a team projected total of 21.5. Last week I took a chance hoping that Texas A&M could toss it around like Memphis did vs Ole Miss, but that didnt pan out. Does this just come down to a match up with a lesser D?

The IVC was made prior to the news that Kyler Murray was going to start. I don't think Kirk is a bad play due to his price on FanDuel, he is still a major part of this offense. He is more of a GPP play with that news mostly due to the fact that we don't know how he is going to connect with Kirk. I still believe the numbers from Kirk are obtainable with 107 yards receiving, as South Carolina's pass defense is not great statistically. Their overall numbers are good, but when adjusting for the competition faced they are not great.

I think the one thing to call out is that Kyler Murray is more than just a Lamar Jackson or Kent Myers. He can actually throw the ball very well, as he threw for 4700 yards as a high school senior last year. I think there is some downgrade to the passing game, but I don't think it is as severe as most think. I think he is more Johnny Manziel than anything, his highlight film is one of the best I've ever seen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdmw_fNpj48

Also, Texas A&M is projected to score 35.75 instead of 21.5.

 

[Devin Knotts]

Any work on Delvin Cook. Didn't see him on the IVC.

Also why so low on Perine?

Dalvin Cook is out, fire up Jacques Patrick.

Perine is the ultimate boom/bust play. Wrote this up in the early slate writeup about him. The model is factoring in more than just the previous week, for example two weeks ago he had 11 carries for 56 yards in a 55-0 win.

Analysis:

Finally the one week that we did not recommend Samaje Perine he looks like the Perine from 2014. If you remember one thing about 2014 you remember Perine’s performance against Kansas last year when he ran for 427 yards against Kansas. Kansas has not gotten any better this year, but Perine has gotten into a time share situation with Joe Mixon that limits his upside in most games. The matchup is perfect however the time share limits his potential upside in most weeks.

Recommendation:

It’s always difficult to predict how these blowout games are going to go, as Oklahoma can choose how they want to defeat Kansas. Most teams have a definite weakness, but Kansas is bad at all aspects of football. In their 55-0 win against Kansas State Perine had 11 carries for 56 yards and no touchdowns. While we expect better numbers this week, we think Perine is best suited as a GPP play due to his inconsistent touches. However, due to the high number of people who will have him, he can be used as a block for cash games.

 

[DukeBroadway]

Devin, would you be able to go into some detail about what makes Christian Kirk the top H-Val wr on the early slate? Running qb set to take over and a team projected total of 21.5. Last week I took a chance hoping that Texas A&M could toss it around like Memphis did vs Ole Miss, but that didnt pan out. Does this just come down to a match up with a lesser D?

The IVC was made prior to the news that Kyler Murray was going to start. I don't think Kirk is a bad play due to his price on FanDuel, he is still a major part of this offense. He is more of a GPP play with that news mostly due to the fact that we don't know how he is going to connect with Kirk. I still believe the numbers from Kirk are obtainable with 107 yards receiving, as South Carolina's pass defense is not great statistically. Their overall numbers are good, but when adjusting for the competition faced they are not great.

I think the one thing to call out is that Kyler Murray is more than just a Lamar Jackson or Kent Myers. He can actually throw the ball very well, as he threw for 4700 yards as a high school senior last year. I think there is some downgrade to the passing game, but I don't think it is as severe as most think. I think he is more Johnny Manziel than anything, his highlight film is one of the best I've ever seen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdmw_fNpj48

Also, Texas A&M is projected to score 35.75 instead of 21.5.

I could have swore at one point the early game write up had a 21.5 next to it. Double checked and yep it 35. Guess im going blind as well as fantasy football stupid. Thanks for the info.

 

[sooted72]

thoughts on markell jones?

 

[NixonMask]

Everett golson isout for Florida State too now. Jacques Patrick in gpp is looking very much interesting

 

[NixonMask]

Carroo is out too. I've got Agud....whatever his name is fired up

 

[sooted72]

Carroo is out too. I've got Agud....whatever his name is fired up

i like this.

 

[NixonMask]

And Perkins is likely

 

[mitchh1124]

How sure is the term likely?

Should fade for safety?

 

[NixonMask]

Id take Devin's opinion over mine, but I'm fading. Could be limited carries and Jamabo is good. I'd rather pay up at WR this week

 

[Joe T]

Good luck dudes. I'm going pretty light this morning. Nothing really sticks out other than Kirk who is a beast at that price.

 

[sooted72]

yeah i think you gotta fade ucla rbs in cash games today which makes me :(

 

[sooted72]

Good luck dudes. I'm going pretty light this morning. Nothing really sticks out other than Kirk who is a beast at that price.

you like kirk over payton at that price point?

 

[Devin Knotts]

Perkins is likely to play, Jamabo is too risky for me this week. This is just a strange week, as there are not as many great options as previous weeks. Jacques Patrick and Akrum Wadley are great values, Fyfe/Murray are good values, but it seems like most of the elite teams are out this week.

 

[sooted72]

devin-

thoughts on payton vs kirk in cash games?

 

[Devin Knotts]

devin-

thoughts on payton vs kirk in cash games?

On DraftKings go Payton due to more safe PPR, on FanDuel go Kirk as PPR doesn't help you as much so Kirk may have less catches with Murray back there but he should have more yardage and better chance at a touchdown.

 

[sooted72]

ok thanks. on fd btw. the tam qb sit doesnt worry you?

 

[Devin Knotts]

ok thanks. on fd btw. the tam qb sit doesnt worry you?

Worries me a little bit, but mentioned earlier in the thread he's a better passer than people think. Threw for 4700 yards in high school, and if anything I think there is an opportunity for him to lock on to his #1 wr.

This would be a no brainer if Allen was starting, but still think I give the edge to Kirk.

 

[sooted72]

ok thanks. basically i was choosing between

payton/kirk/shepard

taylor/kirk/agodusi

taylor/payton/agodusi

 

[Devin Knotts]

Agudosi is risky, I would prefer the first one.

 

[Joe T]

ok thanks. on fd btw. the tam qb sit doesnt worry you?

If Murray stinks, they will throw Allen in anyway. It's not like Allen is unavailable.

 

[sooted72]

Agudosi is risky, I would prefer the first one.

didnt get this in time so ended up going taylor/kirk/agodusi. i think i agree with you that in cash games the first combo is probably best. agodusi is risky and taylor is ofc great but might not play much 2nd half. had i had another minute or two to think about it probably would have switched. oh well we'll see how it goes. thanks for the responses.

 

[NixonMask]

If it makes you feel any better I've got agudosi in my cash lineup. We can burn together

 

[sooted72]

it doesnt

 

[Devin Knotts]

If it makes you feel any better I've got agudosi in my cash lineup. We can burn together

Nixon is the king of taking risky wide receivers, his love of Pierson-El is well documented. Rooting for you guys!

Kyler Murray is a stud.