Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Teams playing NE will be all out to be the first to beat the unbeaten team. Teams playing MIA will be all out not to be the first to lose to the winless team.
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NE to go Undefeated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wgoldsph
- Start date
Deamon
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I missed last week, but after 5 weeks . . .
Weekly update . . .
538:
NYG 85% . . . 90% . . . 89% . . . 90%
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 76%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9%
ESPN's FPI
NYG 87.2% . . . 91.4% . . . 92.0% . . . 92.9%
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0% . . . 87.4%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9%
Weekly update . . .
538:
NYG 85% . . . 90% . . . 89% . . . 90%
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 76%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9%
ESPN's FPI
NYG 87.2% . . . 91.4% . . . 92.0% . . . 92.9%
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0% . . . 87.4%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9%
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Offense continues to look marginal.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Admittedly, the offense looked anemic against the Bills, but the offense (ie, removing the points the defense scored) put up 33-29-30-33 in their 4 other outings. Across all 5 games, the offense is averaging 27 ppg. All the missed kicks could have upped that by a point or two. I am not saying that the offense has been great, but I don't think they have been horrible. They just haven't been consistent. Brady throwing picks deep in the red zone in back-to-back games was atypical, especially since the throws were terrible. I won't argue with anyone saying they played a bunch of tomato can defenses and that they will need to do better against better teams.
However, I would also suggest that NE will play very close to the vest when they are ahead and will not show things they are saving for later in the season. If the defense is not allowing yards or points, there really isn't a huge pressing need to come out and score 50 every week. But we are still several games away from the Pats seeing more competition. Even though they only beat BUF by 6 points, I never felt that the Bills offense really gained much traction and I never felt the Pats were in danger of losing that game. As BB would say, the first month is really preseason anyway. Let's see what they come up with and how they do by mid-season when their opponents get better.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree that they won't go undefeated because teams just don't go undefeated. That being said, I don't see the defense falling off unless they see the injuries the offense has seen. But they still have a month for guys to get healthier before the series of stronger teams rolls in. If the offense continuous to score in the mid to upper 20's, I think the defense most weeks won't give up that many points.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Well, it's down to NE or SF in the undefeated category. Maybe we should start a SF going 16-0 thread to be fair to them.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
peaking too soon, and a butter soft schedule helps...
bostonfred
Footballguy
Thursday night game vs a rookie quarterback without Barkley, Gallman, Engram or Shepard, in Foxboro, the night that Brady is set to pass peyton manning on the career yardage list, and gronk will be in the booth for the first time.
If you hate the Patriots you might want to sit this one out.
If you hate the Patriots you might want to sit this one out.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Maybe it's just me being out of it, but the bottom tier of the NFL seems a lot more putrid this year than normal. It's like there are at least half a dozen teams that in a normal year would be drafting first overall. My Bills get to play a bunch of games against that crew so I'm not really complaining, but so does New England and there's just no serious doubt that that adds to their potential for an undefeated season. NYG, WAS, and MIA are all complete gimmies, and those aren't supposed to happen in the NFL.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Both NE and BUF get MIA x 2, NYJ x 2, WAS, NYG, PIT, and CIN. That’s half a season worth of cupcakes.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
if you saw 2007's week 17 game v. NE where the Giants all but had the game won if not for a long bomb to Moss, you KNEW that the SB was going to be a coin toss at best. there was nothing improbable about it, the better team won, if they played 10 times NY beats them over and over. they couldnt stop the Giants front 7. I'll take 100 years of evidence to support the notion that it's impossible to go undefeated - only been done once. this NE is not special by any means, they've played such doormats as the Jets, Redskins, Steelers, Dolphins. how many wins between all of these teams combined? 1? 2? and people say this is the best NE defense they've ever had.LOL. c'mon now, I'll take any of the Willie McGuinnest/bruschii teams over this band of characters, any day of the week. this is a 12-4, 13-3 type team. nothing against that, they'll be the home field team for the playoffs - but they won't go undefeated.pretty funny to say they'll go undefeated on 9/9/2019 , after just going 1-0.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
This Giants game is the trap game.
Deamon
Footballguy
The only diff in their schedules is:
NE vs KC and HOU
BUF vs DEN and TEN
Buff schedule much easier than the Patriots.
Bossman
Footballguy
How has this league become so pathetic?
Only a handfull of teams now considered "worthy opponents" and half the teams are complete garbage.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
It's one year. The league still has lots of parity compared to other professional leagues but ya this year does seem like lots of really good or really bad teams.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here's the recent history of the win totals of the Bottom 8 teams in the league since free agency started. Basically, I added up the worst 8 records and am posting the combine win total for those 8 teams:
2018 - 31
2017 - 35
2016 - 29
2015 - 35
2014 - 29
2013 - 30.5
2012 - 32
2011 - 31
2010 - 36
2009 - 29
2008 - 26.5
2007 - 30
2006 - 35
2005 - 30
2004 - 36
2003 - 36
2002 - 35
2001 - 33
2000 - 30
1999 - 35
1998 - 31
1997 - 36
1996 - 34
1995 - 40
1994 - 37
This year, the Bottom 8 teams so far (WAS, CIN, MIA, NYJ, PIT, DEN, ATL, ARI) have gone a combined 4-33-1 (.118 winning percentage). Over a 16 game season, that would project out to 1.9 wins per team and a total win total of 15.2 wins. The lowest combined win total of Bottom 8 teams on that list was 26.5 wins in 2008.
That being said, this year's bottom feeder teams can't keep losing at the rate they have been as they are going to start playing each other. I also think some of them will start doing a little better (PIT and ATL in particular). But for now, collectively they have taken horrible to a new level.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I just snagged the Jets D to pair with NE D.
I expect some regression as NE comes into a comparatively harder stretch starting WK 8 -- CLE and BAL are up and down, but still potentially dangerous, but after the bye @PHI, DAL, @ HOU, and KC are decidedly tougher competition than NE have faced all year so far.
I think the BUF D is much better than the Jets D overall, and weren't available in my league, but if they were I'd definitely want BUF for the 4 week stretch starting WK 9 (WAS, @ CLE, @ MIA, DEN). But they too have a comparative harder schedule down the stretch, finishing with @ DAL, BAL, @ PIT, @ NE.
The Jets, meanwhile, play @MIA, NYG, @ WAS, OAK, @CIN, and MIA starting week 9. And if you think BAL and PIT won't be big challenges for a D like BUF, the Jets, who IMHO have an underrated D with key pieces coming back in Jenkins, Mosely, and Williams, finish the fantasy season with BAL and PIT.
All this to say that if the Jets D comes back to form with all players back from injury, and play to their potential, I just might be rolling with them from weeks 9 through 14 instead of NE D despite how dominant NE has looked.
These next 3-4 weeks will tell the tale about whether NE D can fare as good against some higher-octane offenses, and whether the Jets D can live up to their potential on paper.
Curious as to how others are thinking about the NE D through the back half of the year.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Still better than the NBA where you can cross off the bottom 20-25 teams every year.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
After 6 weeks . . .
538:
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 75%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81% . . . 83%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9%
ESPN's FPI
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0% . . . 87.4% . . . 85.2%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6% . . . 82.9%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8%
538:
NYJ 73% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 76% . . . 75%
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81% . . . 83%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9%
ESPN's FPI
NYJ 72.4% . . . 82.3% . . . 84.0% . . . 87.4% . . . 85.2%
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6% . . . 82.9%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8%
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Through 6 games, NE has averaged +8.93 points per game more than their opponents have allowed vs. other opponents. Defensively, NE has allowed -9.08 points per game less than their opponents have scored vs. other teams. That makes for a net of +18.01 points per game.
By comparison, the 49ers have averaged +3.96 points offensively and -11.28 points defensively for a net of +15.24 points per game (again vs. their output vs. their other opponents). Based on the that, the Niners have allowed fewer overall points vs. their opponents' regular scoring output.
However, that's overall points scored / allowed. The NE offense / special teams has allowed 3 TD's that had nothing to do with the defense. The NE defense itself has allowed -12.58 ppg compared to opponents' usual scoring production so far this year. The SF offense allowed a return TD, so the Niners defense has held opponents to -12.68 ppg vs. normal. Basically, on the points allowed front, NE and SF are pretty much a dead heat in terms of adjusted points allowed vs. opponents' average output in their other games.
By comparison, the 49ers have averaged +3.96 points offensively and -11.28 points defensively for a net of +15.24 points per game (again vs. their output vs. their other opponents). Based on the that, the Niners have allowed fewer overall points vs. their opponents' regular scoring output.
However, that's overall points scored / allowed. The NE offense / special teams has allowed 3 TD's that had nothing to do with the defense. The NE defense itself has allowed -12.58 ppg compared to opponents' usual scoring production so far this year. The SF offense allowed a return TD, so the Niners defense has held opponents to -12.68 ppg vs. normal. Basically, on the points allowed front, NE and SF are pretty much a dead heat in terms of adjusted points allowed vs. opponents' average output in their other games.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
If the Pats face the Packers in the Super Bowl, the refs are going to be totally confused about who they should be in the tank for.
Bossman
Footballguy
5 mins into the game it's gonna look like GB already won and the confetti cannons littered the field with yellow.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Calling it now, Jets upset the Pats under the lights this week on MNF.
OK, maybe more of an impossible dream than calling a shot, but putting it out there nonetheless.
Laugh away.
OK, maybe more of an impossible dream than calling a shot, but putting it out there nonetheless.
Laugh away.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Not an impossible thing. Jets are only about 4-1 underdogs, stranger things have happened in the NFL.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
After 7 weeks . . .
538:
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81% . . . 83% . . . 84%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60% . . . 56%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62% . . . 69%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57% . . . 63%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71% . . . 70%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87% . . . 89%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80% . . . 80%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96% . . . 93%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.3%
ESPN's FPI
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6% . . . 82.9% . . . 84.9%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6% . . . 60.9%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2% . . . 70.6%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9% . . . 74.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9% . . . 52.7%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6% . . . 63.4%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7% . . . 88.2%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3% . . . 88.4%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0% . . . 98.7%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8% . . . 7.0%
NE now 20-0 in their last twenty games against first or second year starting QB's. They should still see 4 more of those (CLE, BAL, BUF, MIA). They are also very good against QB's that have never played them. They will see two of those (PHI and DAL). That leaves three games left. Watson is 0-2 against the Pats (as is Mahomes). The only remaining QB would be Andy Dalton (1-2), who is the only QB the Patriots will likely face that has beaten them . . . unless Fitzmagic starts Week 17 (2-10 lifetime against the Pats).
I've heard a lot of talk that the Ravens will be the team to beat them. IMO, the Pats will put 8 guys in the box and force Jackson to pass. But that's two weeks from now and we are getting ahead of ourselves.
538:
CLE 80% . . . 78% . . . 81% . . . 81% . . . 83% . . . 84%
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60% . . . 56%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62% . . . 69%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57% . . . 63%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71% . . . 70%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87% . . . 89%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80% . . . 80%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96% . . . 93%
Total: 0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.3%
ESPN's FPI
CLE 80.4% . . . 80.3% . . . 81.8% . . . 82.6% . . . 82.9% . . . 84.9%
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6% . . . 60.9%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2% . . . 70.6%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9% . . . 74.9%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9% . . . 52.7%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6% . . . 63.4%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7% . . . 88.2%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3% . . . 88.4%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0% . . . 98.7%
Total: 0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8% . . . 7.0%
NE now 20-0 in their last twenty games against first or second year starting QB's. They should still see 4 more of those (CLE, BAL, BUF, MIA). They are also very good against QB's that have never played them. They will see two of those (PHI and DAL). That leaves three games left. Watson is 0-2 against the Pats (as is Mahomes). The only remaining QB would be Andy Dalton (1-2), who is the only QB the Patriots will likely face that has beaten them . . . unless Fitzmagic starts Week 17 (2-10 lifetime against the Pats).
I've heard a lot of talk that the Ravens will be the team to beat them. IMO, the Pats will put 8 guys in the box and force Jackson to pass. But that's two weeks from now and we are getting ahead of ourselves.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
After 8 weeks . . .
538:
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60% . . . 56% . . . 57%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62% . . . 69% . . . 64%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79% . . . 77% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57% . . . 63% . . . 62%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71% . . . 70% . . . 72%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87% . . . 89% . . . 90%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80% . . . 80% . . . 84%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96% . . . 93% . . . 93%
0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.3% . . . 8.8%
ESPN's FPI
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6% . . . 60.9% . . . 62.3%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2% . . . 70.6% . . . 68%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9% . . . 74.9% . . . 75.3%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9% . . . 52.7% . . . 55.8%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6% . . . 63.4% . . . 65.5%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7% . . . 88.2% . . . 88.9%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3% . . . 88.4% . . . 90.6%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0% . . . 98.7% . . . 98.7%
0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8% . . . 7.0% . . . 9.3%
538:
BAL 52% . . . 51% . . . 54% . . . 61% . . . 60% . . . 56% . . . 57%
PHI 51% . . . 57% . . . 61% . . . 58% . . . 62% . . . 69% . . . 64%
DAL 71% . . . 69% . . . 69% . . . 77% . . . 79% . . . 77% . . . 77%
HOU 61% . . . 64% . . . 59% . . . 61% . . . 57% . . . 63% . . . 62%
KCC 61% . . . 60% . . . 58% . . . 65% . . . 71% . . . 70% . . . 72%
CIN 75% . . . 79% . . . 81% . . . 86% . . . 87% . . . 89% . . . 90%
BUF 80% . . . 79% . . . 78% . . . 79% . . . 80% . . . 80% . . . 84%
MIA 90% . . . 92% . . . 94% . . . 95% . . . 96% . . . 93% . . . 93%
0.64% . . . 1.1% . . . 1.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.9% . . . 7.3% . . . 8.8%
ESPN's FPI
BAL 42.4% . . . 53.0% . . . 54.1% . . . 62.1% . . . 61.6% . . . 60.9% . . . 62.3%
PHI 54.2% . . . 63.9% . . . 66.1% . . . 62.8% . . . 64.2% . . . 70.6% . . . 68%
DAL 72.3% . . . 74.9% . . . 73.9% . . . 75.3% . . . 75.9% . . . 74.9% . . . 75.3%
HOU 50.5% . . . 58.2% . . . 54.3% . . . 52.3% . . . 48.9% . . . 52.7% . . . 55.8%
KCC 58.2% . . . 60.6% . . . 60.0% . . . 63.7% . . . 64.6% . . . 63.4% . . . 65.5%
CIN 73.5% . . . 83.0% . . . 83.4% . . . 86.8% . . . 85.7% . . . 88.2% . . . 88.9%
BUF 83.3% . . . 85.4% . . . 86.1% . . . 86% . . . 85.3% . . . 88.4% . . . 90.6%
MIA 94.8% . . . 97.9% . . . 98.8% . . . 99% . . . 99.0% . . . 98.7% . . . 98.7%
0.53% . . . 2.0% . . . 2.3% . . . 3.9% . . . 4.8% . . . 7.0% . . . 9.3%
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
The 42% number was after Week 1 when the Ravens hung 59 points on the Dolphins. The column on the right is their current number (62.3%). I left the other weeks in to track how much the chances of winning each game changed.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
the closer they get to being 19-0 the harder it will become. and then they get to face N.O., Sea, or SF in the SB.
Sea can run with ANYONE, anywhere, anytime. SF is a carbon copy of the 07 and 11 Giants - strong run game, great o-line, best d-line/front 7 in football. What does Brady hate? strong defensive fronts. What else does he hate? playing in Miami. dude chokes in Miami almost every year, against really, really bad Dolphins teams. they won this year, but last few seasons they've been beaten down here. SB is in MIami. What does BB hate? Kyle Shanahan's offense. Falcons beat the living daylights out of the Pats in that SB, then they got stupid, cute late, and the defense tired and Brady needed 13 things to happen to win, and he somehow got it. if he gets the chance again, Shanahan will stomp BBs guts out in the SB never letting his foot come off the pedal. Pats can't stop the run, folks.Chubb just torched them, on a bad team with a bad line..What do you think C. Carson, Kamara, Breida/Coleman are going to do to them??
I'm not a big fan of the GB defense, but they can put pts on the board, and Rodgers looks like the MVP Rodgers, and when that happens, look out.
KC probably beats them in Dec. reg season matchup.
and D. Watson is playing MVP type ball too, always a shootout with O'Brien's Texans. see if they win one at home against NE.
I mean seriously would Van Noy even be noteworthy player on any other roster? no.
Sea can run with ANYONE, anywhere, anytime. SF is a carbon copy of the 07 and 11 Giants - strong run game, great o-line, best d-line/front 7 in football. What does Brady hate? strong defensive fronts. What else does he hate? playing in Miami. dude chokes in Miami almost every year, against really, really bad Dolphins teams. they won this year, but last few seasons they've been beaten down here. SB is in MIami. What does BB hate? Kyle Shanahan's offense. Falcons beat the living daylights out of the Pats in that SB, then they got stupid, cute late, and the defense tired and Brady needed 13 things to happen to win, and he somehow got it. if he gets the chance again, Shanahan will stomp BBs guts out in the SB never letting his foot come off the pedal. Pats can't stop the run, folks.Chubb just torched them, on a bad team with a bad line..What do you think C. Carson, Kamara, Breida/Coleman are going to do to them??
I'm not a big fan of the GB defense, but they can put pts on the board, and Rodgers looks like the MVP Rodgers, and when that happens, look out.
KC probably beats them in Dec. reg season matchup.
and D. Watson is playing MVP type ball too, always a shootout with O'Brien's Texans. see if they win one at home against NE.
I mean seriously would Van Noy even be noteworthy player on any other roster? no.
Deamon
Footballguy
babydemon90
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
SFO has actually passed NE in adjusted scoring per game.
NE +7.2 points on offense, -9.2 points on defense = 16.4 per game differential.
SF +5.2 points on offense, -11.8 points on defense = 17.0 per game differential.
Essentially, NE has scored +7.2 ppg compared to what other teams have allowed in all of their other games. And they have given up -9.2 fewer points per game compared to what their opponents have scored in their other games. Essentially, I compared how each did when their totals were removed from the results.
So in a theoretical game between NE and SF . . .
NE averages 31.3 ppg. SF defense allows -11.8 per game less = 19.5 points. SF allows 11.0 ppg and NE scores +7.2 ppg = 18.2 points. Average those two to get to 18.9 points for NE.
SF averages 29.6 ppg. NE defense allows -9.2 per game less = 20.4 points. NE allows 7.6 ppg and SF scores +5.2 ppg = 12.8 points. Average those to get to 16.6 points for SF.
So based on the scoring metrics so far this year, in a hypothetical game were played today and the numbers held true, NE would be expected to win by 2.3 points. By comparison, the Jeff Sagarin Golden Mean model has NE rated 2.25 points better than the 49ers. So the theory in the numbers isn't that far off to one of the actual models. LINK
The one thing that Sagarin does that I am not a huge fan of is assessing a generic point value for home field advantage. IMO, that is simply too basic an average of all teams to come up with an average advantage for all teams. Some teams have way greater HFA's than the 1.35-1.4 points he uses. But I digress . . .
Bottom line, SF and NE have both been great so far. And yes, there are stronger teams in the NFC this year.
babydemon90
Footballguy
SF has been incredible, but their SOS remaining makes it much less likely for them to go undefeated. Seattle twice, Packers, Saints still come - undefeated is very unlikely. NE probably is 50/50 at this point to go undefeated?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If you believe the math models and simulations, NE is only 8-9% to win out (at least according to 538 and ESPN . . . see above). I ran the numbers they used using SF instead, and 538 gives SF a 0.97% chance of going 16-0 while ESPN sees them at 2.89%.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The regular season starts Sunday, with the tough part of the schedule in the next 5 matchups (or 7, if Buffalo is healthy week 16).
@BAL, @PHI, vsDAL, @HOU, vsKC
After that, @CIN, vsBUF, vsMIA
They could lose anywhere between 0 and 3 of the above games. I think @BAL and @PHI are the two hardest games.
@BAL, @PHI, vsDAL, @HOU, vsKC
After that, @CIN, vsBUF, vsMIA
They could lose anywhere between 0 and 3 of the above games. I think @BAL and @PHI are the two hardest games.
sports_fan
Footballguy
If they win every game they play I could see it happening
