NE vs Denver, am I the only one that (1 Viewer)

[Workhorse]

If I'm the Broncos, I completely ignore the Patriots ground game and play the pass almost exclusively. Dillon looked very old and slow against the Jags and the only room that Faulk had to run was on draws.I'm a huge Pats homer but I think the current Pats offense is probably easier to gameplan against than most since they are currently pretty one-dimensional.On the other end, the Broncos running game forces you to commit to stacking men in the box. If Plummer can play-action effectively, that secondary can be exposed down the middle of the field -- Wilson is a big-hitter but can be lured with play-action.This game scares the hell out of me. I think it's a bad matchup all around for New England.

 

[P Boy]

Game breakdown:NE record of opponents: 130-126DEN record of opponents: 128-128EVENNE record on the road: 5-3DEN record at home: 8-0DEN++NE vs 2006 playoff teams: 2-3DEN vs 2006 playoff teams: 3-1DEN+NE vs common opponents: 6-3DEN vs common opponents: 7-2EVENWhen DEN is on O:#5 O in NFL vs #26 D in NFLDEN+++#2 Rush O vs #8 Rush DDEN+#18 Pass O vs #31 Pass DDEN++#21 3rd down % vs #29 3rd down %DEN+When NE is on O:#7 O vs #15 DNE+#24 Rush O vs #2 Rush DDEN++#2 Pass vs #29 PassNE+++#8 3rd down % vs #13 3rd down %NE+Time of Possession: DEN #1 vs NE #18DEN++Turnover Margin: DEN #2 vs NE #22DEN++*****************************************************The one place where NE has a significant edge is when NE is throwing the ball on offense. In all other phases of the game, DEN holds an edge, and in some cases a very significant edge. DEN ought to be able to control the tempo, and may be able to come up with an extra possession or 2 - which really hurts NE, since Brady ought to have a tougher time if he is off the field for extended periods. If weather is a factor, NE is going to have a really tough time since the only place they really have any meaningful edge is when they pass the football.Historically, NE & Belicheck have a tough time against DEN. Shanahan has also had an extra week to scheme, which makes him a signirficant factor - DEN is historically tough after the bye week.NE has some intangibles in that they have not been beaten in the playoffs under Brady, but this is a bit of a different team than the previous SB teams. The O line is suspect, and the secondary is a sieve.I just have a tough time seeing how NE gets past DEN in this game. That comes as a football fan - not a DEN fan.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

This will be a fascinating matchup.I believe Denver's run defense will be able to shut down N.E.'s ground game. That will put N.E.'s offensive fate in Brady's hands, not a bad place to be.Denver, I suspect, will run the ball sufficiently well to keep the running game a credible threat. That will be key because I don't believe Denver wants their fate in Plummer's hands. Plummer is not the brightest guy and the way N.E. disguises defenses he likely would make mistakes if he is forcedd to think too much. Still, Shanahan will have sufficient time to design plays that reduce this advantage somewhat if he is willing to be patient with his offense and I think he will have that patience. Shanahan's whole plan this year was for patience. He designed his team to play field position ball.Also, Denver's O-line is mobile and so is Plummer. He will not be the sitting target that Leftwich was on his gimpy ankle.Ultimately I like the Vegas line. At three points the line says this is essentially a pick em game with Denver getting the home field and rest advantage to tilt the line.Good luck to both teams and to their fans.

 

[nygiants56]

Really,

Does Denver have a chance?

Good luck Broncos.

no chance. shouldn't even play the game. don't even suit up for it.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Actually, after watching NE beat the Jags yesterday, if I have to pick a team that has little shot to win in that game, it's not the Broncos.

Did you watch the same game I did? The Jags never really mounted any substantial scoring chances and the Pats won by 25 points.How does that play into N.E. having no chance?

I wasn't impressed one bit by the Pats in that game. Playing against the Jags, and with Leftwich obviously not ready to lead a team into the playoffs, they could get away with a performace like that. The Broncos are MUCH better than the Jags, and the Jags were able to hang around into the 3rd quarter. They won't be so lucky if they play that way next week.Their late season win streak against the Jets, Bills, and Bucs was way overblown, and this win wasn't nearly as impressive as the score makes it look. They're going to need a solid contribution from Dillon to have a chance to win in Denver, and he looked slow and lacked any sort of explosion running against the Jags. He's looked that way most of the year, whether it's because of injuries, age, or last season's workload catching up to him.

Edit to add that I didn't say they have "no" chance. I said if I had to pick a team that has little chance to win, it's the Pats, not the Broncos.

 

[SSOG]

[

You might be a very smart person. I don't know. Regardless, I would suggest that, no matter HOW MUCH you know about football, the collective whole that is Vegas knows more. You might not think Denver has a chance, but Vegas thinks Denver has a better than 50% chance. Personally, I'm going to side with Vegas on this one.

This is false. Vegas does not set the line based on how much they think a team is going to win by. They set a line based on trying to get equal action on both sides of the line. The line then moves depending upon which team is getting the most money placed on it.Ex. If a ton of people put the majority of the money on NE, the line will go down, despite nothing happening to shange their opinion of the outcome of the game. Conversely, if all the money went on Denver, they would become 4 or more point favorites.

Isn't this just a market reflection of the "collective whole" of Vegas? People "vote" with their dollars, and the line should be the equilibrium between the action on either side.At least that's how I've always viewed it.

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

 

[jurb26]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

Vegas doesn't care one iota about predicting the games right. Only on balancing the bets in order to make a profit. They will set the lines in an attempt to make money, not be right about the games. Oddly enough, setting this line at 3 means that the public, or at least betting public which you seem to think is the smartest around when it comes to football knowledge, sees the teams as =. 3 points is normally given just for homefield.

 

[thatguy]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

Vegas doesn't care one iota about predicting the games right. Only on balancing the bets in order to make a profit. They will set the lines in an attempt to make money, not be right about the games. Oddly enough, setting this line at 3 means that the public, or at least betting public which you seem to think is the smartest around when it comes to football knowledge, sees the teams as =. 3 points is normally given just for homefield.

I'm pretty sure he realizes this. At least, nothing he said runs contrary to this. Trust me, he realizes this.Keep trying to prove everyone wrong, though, big guy. You're so damn good at it.

 

[[icon]]

Shanny offensive mind to match BB's defensive mind

 

[jurb26]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

Vegas doesn't care one iota about predicting the games right. Only on balancing the bets in order to make a profit. They will set the lines in an attempt to make money, not be right about the games. Oddly enough, setting this line at 3 means that the public, or at least betting public which you seem to think is the smartest around when it comes to football knowledge, sees the teams as =. 3 points is normally given just for homefield.

I'm pretty sure he realizes this. At least, nothing he said runs contrary to this. Trust me, he realizes this.Keep trying to prove everyone wrong, though, big guy. You're so damn good at it.

No, I don't think he does or else he would not say that Vegas is predicting games. They aren't. They are only trying to make money off of them. The point spreads they put down are only reactions to the publics perception of what will happen. They will adjust it as the days go by as the other poster said to balance it based off of who is getting the action.

 

[Helm]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

Vegas doesn't care one iota about predicting the games right. Only on balancing the bets in order to make a profit. They will set the lines in an attempt to make money, not be right about the games. Oddly enough, setting this line at 3 means that the public, or at least betting public which you seem to think is the smartest around when it comes to football knowledge, sees the teams as =. 3 points is normally given just for homefield.

I'm pretty sure he realizes this. At least, nothing he said runs contrary to this. Trust me, he realizes this.Keep trying to prove everyone wrong, though, big guy. You're so damn good at it.

 

[Helm]

No, I don't think he does or else he would not say that Vegas is predicting games.  They aren't.  They are only trying to make money off of them.  The point spreads they put down are only reactions to the publics perception of what will happen.  They will adjust it as the days go by as the other poster said to balance it based off of who is getting the action.

When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines.

 

[Statorama]

Denver's going to run wild this weekend, and can probably score at will against the Pats. It's in the Denver defenses hands whether or not they win this game.

 

[jurb26]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting making money off the games.

No, I don't think he does or else he would not say that Vegas is predicting games. They aren't. They are only trying to make money off of them. The point spreads they put down are only reactions to the publics perception of what will happen. They will adjust it as the days go by as the other poster said to balance it based off of who is getting the action.

When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines.

Now I think we are on the same page. I agree with his 1st portion, just not the 2nd. I do not agree that Vegas is trying to predict anything outside of it's own profits.

 

[Serenity Now]

Anyone know where Denver ranked in sacks this year? What I heard on the radio is that they ranked low...maybe even last. Is this true?

 

[Helm]

Anyone know where Denver ranked in sacks this year? What I heard on the radio is that they ranked low...maybe even last. Is this true?

Not sure on sacks, but here's a site I like to use on statistics

 

[jurb26]

Anyone know where Denver ranked in sacks this year? What I heard on the radio is that they ranked low...maybe even last. Is this true?

Not sure on sacks, but here's a site I like to use on statistics

Den was not good at creating sacks. 28th (28 oddly enough and this was a 3 way tie, so only 2 teams had less sacks) in the NFL while facing the most pass attempts in the league at 38.3 per game.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I wasn't impressed one bit by the Pats in that game. 

Their late season win streak against the Jets, Bills, and Bucs was way overblown, and this win wasn't nearly as impressive as the score makes it look.

"Well, the Patriots may be getting healthy and beating up on the Jets and Bills, let's see how they do against the first-place Buccaneers before we say 'they're back'."Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah well, maybe the Bucs aren't as good as advertised. Let's see how they do against Jacksonville, a 12-4 team who isn't getting the respect they deserve."

Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah, but now they have to go play Denver, a real team. This late season surge is a masquerade."

Keep picking against 'em fellas. This season is beginning to look an awful lot like Patriot championship runs of the past.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I'll be pulling for the Broncos but it is hard for me to imagine Jake Plummer beating Tom Brady in a playoff game.

 

[Helm]

I wasn't impressed one bit by the Pats in that game. 

Their late season win streak against the Jets, Bills, and Bucs was way overblown, and this win wasn't nearly as impressive as the score makes it look.

"Well, the Patriots may be getting healthy and beating up on the Jets and Bills, let's see how they do against the first-place Buccaneers before we say 'they're back'."Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah well, maybe the Bucs aren't as good as advertised. Let's see how they do against Jacksonville, a 12-4 team who isn't getting the respect they deserve."

Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah, but now they have to go play Denver, a real team. This late season surge is a masquerade."

Keep picking against 'em fellas. This season is beginning to look an awful lot like Patriot championship runs of the past.

 

[jurb26]

I wasn't impressed one bit by the Pats in that game.

Their late season win streak against the Jets, Bills, and Bucs was way overblown, and this win wasn't nearly as impressive as the score makes it look.

"Well, the Patriots may be getting healthy and beating up on the Jets and Bills, let's see how they do against the first-place Buccaneers before we say 'they're back'."Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah well, maybe the Bucs aren't as good as advertised. Let's see how they do against Jacksonville, a 12-4 team who isn't getting the respect they deserve."

Dominated. Crushed. Embarrassed. 3 points.

"Yeah, but now they have to go play Denver, a real team. This late season surge is a masquerade."

Keep picking against 'em fellas. This season is beginning to look an awful lot like Patriot championship runs of the past.

If the Pats can hold Den to only 3 points this week (and win mind you), they may just go into the AFCC game favored... regardless of who it is.

 

[SSOG]

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting games.

Vegas doesn't care one iota about predicting the games right. Only on balancing the bets in order to make a profit. They will set the lines in an attempt to make money, not be right about the games. Oddly enough, setting this line at 3 means that the public, or at least betting public which you seem to think is the smartest around when it comes to football knowledge, sees the teams as =. 3 points is normally given just for homefield.

You're right, all Vegas cares about is making money. As has been mentioned, the odds are REALLY set by the gamblers, at a point where there's equal money on both sides. So the driving force behind Vegas is the gambling public. You're correct that the gambling public's only goal is to make money... but you're wrong about a very big point. How does the gambling public make money? BY CORRECTLY PREDICTING THE GAMES. As you can see, Vegas, or the institution that is a reflection of the collective reasoning of the gambling public, cares very much about correctly predicting the outcomes.Again, the line is determined to get equal action, but that line is driven by gamblers who are trying to correctly predict the outcome of the game, so that line is a representation of the consensus of the gambling public on the outcome of the game.

Also, for the record, Denver is favored by 3.5 in early lines- which is an acknowledgement that they're marginally better- which is quite an acknowledgement considering what a superstitious lot gamblers tend to be. Watch the line during the week, as I expect it to move up.

]

Shanny offensive mind to match BB's defensive mind

You're absolutely right. Denver's offense was 7th and points and 4th in yards. NE's defense was 17th in points and 26th in yards. Clearly Shanahan's offensive prowess far exceeds Belichick's defensive prowess. Good call.

No, I don't think he does or else he would not say that Vegas is predicting games. They aren't. They are only trying to make money off of them. The point spreads they put down are only reactions to the publics perception of what will happen. They will adjust it as the days go by as the other poster said to balance it based off of who is getting the action.

Again, Vegas *IS* predicting games. The line is set to get equal action on both sides. Equal action from what? EQUAL ACTION FROM GAMBLERS ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT THE GAMES.The line is a representation of the consensus of a population THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT GAMES.

Agreed. When I say "vegas" I'm referring to the collective whole of the gambling institution- the oddsmakers AND the gamblers- that set the lines. And "Vegas", as a collective, tends to be the smartest entity out there when it comes to predicting making money off the games.

Now I think we are on the same page. I agree with his 1st portion, just not the 2nd. I do not agree that Vegas is trying to predict anything outside of it's own profits.

I agree. Gamblers are trying to make money off of the games. How do they make money? BY CORRECTLY PREDICTING THEM.If someone says they'll pay me $50 if I run a mile in under 6 minutes, and I agree to try, you can say that I'm trying to make $50, and you'd be right... BUT I'M ALSO TRYING TO RUN A MILE IN UNDER 6 MINUTES.

 

[Gr00vus]

So "Vegas" is telling us the teams are even and Denver gives 3 because they've got home field. It's almost not worth talking about what Vegas thinks as that's as close to non-commital as you can get.As a Charger fan, I'd much rather see the Broncos win - I'd even root for the Raiders as I'd rather see the AFC West do well. I'm tired of the Patriots too.Maybe overall the Broncos have a talent edge. But I think the Pats have the edge where it will count the most - Brady over Plummer. I'd like to see Jake step up in what will be one of the biggest games of his career, but I don't think he'll quite make it. I also have to give an edge at coach to the Pats, in fact their coach might be the best in the NFL, and seems to definitely be the best in the NFL during the playoffs in his second go round as a HC. He'll definitely force Plummer to beat them, and as I said I don't think Plummer will do it.The Pats are on a roll and it's winning time. Regardless of opponent they're winning games when they want to/need to. They're the champs until somebody beats them, and they're playing that way. I don't think MIle High is enough to stop them.I've said for a while that this should be a great, close game and it will. The Pats win - three points is nice, but I think the play would be the money line.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think Denver has a good shot to win this game.