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Need input for Survivor Pool "overtime" (1 Viewer)

GiantsRule

Footballguy
This would happen to me. After years of getting eliminated in Last Man Standing pools, usually by Week 1, I find myself one of 14 people (out of 719) still alive after the regular season. The pool coordinator said this is the first time in 10 years that he hasn't doled out the prizes by Week 16 let alone the end of the reg. season (only the Top 5 get paid).

Now, the rules are changed up a bit. You have to pick ALL the playoff winners each week from the wild card week through the Super Bowl. The participants with the most right each week advance. Whoever's remaining by the end of the Super Bowl gets the money (starts at 10% for the fourth-runner up all the way to 50% for the ultimate winner).

All games are straight up picks (no point spreads).

I know a lot of you are gambling gurus and pick 'em champs so I'm going to simply take the consensus of your picks by the end of the week. I'm as big a G-Men fan as you'll find, but if you all feel the Panthers are taking Round 1, that's who I'll select. Likewise, don't automatically pick the Pats or the Steelers because you're a big fan that feels the Jags and Bengals respectively don't have a chance.

Here's hoping I can properly represent FBG with a Survivor's crown!

Jaguars at Patriots

Panthers at Giants

Redskins at Bucs

Steelers at Bengals

 
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3C's

Footballguy
I'll probably change my mind later, but right now I'd go with Pats, Panthers, Bucs and Steelers.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
This would happen to me. After years of getting eliminated in Last Man Standing pools, usually by Week 1, I find myself one of 14 people (out of 719) still alive after the regular season. The pool coordinator said this is the first time in 10 years that he hasn't doled out the prizes by Week 16 let alone the end of the reg. season (only the Top 5 get paid).

Now, the rules are changed up a bit. You have to pick ALL the playoff winners each week from the wild card week through the Super Bowl. The participants with the most right each week advance. Whoever's remaining by the end of the Super Bowl gets the money (starts at 10% for the fourth-runner up all the way to 50% for the ultimate winner).

All games are straight up picks (no point spreads).

I know a lot of you are gambling gurus and pick 'em champs so I'm going to simply take the consensus of your picks by the end of the week. I'm as big a G-Men fan as you'll find, but if you all feel the Panthers are taking Round 1, that's who I'll select. Likewise, don't automatically pick the Pats or the Steelers because you're a big fan that feels the Jags and Bengals respectively don't have a chance.

Here's hoping I can properly represent FBG with a Survivor's crown!

Jaguars at Patriots

Panthers at Giants

Redskins at Bucs

Steelers at Bengals
1. Your "league commish" for this pool is a tool.... nice of him to make up rules as you go. Should be a split plot unless specified otherwise....2. Start a poll (16 choices)

3. Remember that home favorites win about 3/4 of the first round. Find one upset and go favorite for the other 3.

I'd say Pats at home in the cold at night vs. Jacksonville with a ? at QB is an easy call. Tampa / Washington is a toss-up, but I'd go with Washington since they got shafted in the 36-35 2 point conversion earlier this season. Giants / Carolina - Giants are very good at home, not so good on the road. Giants by a field goal. Cincy should handle Pittsburgh.

So that's 3 favorites and one upset, not looking at the spreads yet. I'm guessing NE is a 7 point favorite, NY and Cincy by 4 or so, and Wash a 2 point dog.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
Just looked at the lines:01/07 4:30 PMWashington Tampa Bay -2.5 37o/u01/07 8:00 PMJacksonville New England -8 37½o/u 01/08 1:00 PMCarolina New York -2.5 43½o/u01/08 4:30 PMPittsburgh -3Cincinnati 44o/u Personally I'm shocked at the Pittsburgh line. How can they be favored? Is Palmer out? Other than that, I was pretty accurate (said NE 7, it is 8 - said Wash +2, it is 2.5, and the Giants by 3 or 4, it is 2.5). Something is fishy about the Cincy line.

 

3C's

Footballguy
Just looked at the lines:

01/07 4:30 PM

Washington

Tampa Bay -2.5

37o/u

01/07 8:00 PM

Jacksonville

New England -8

37½o/u

01/08 1:00 PM

Carolina

New York -2.5

43½o/u

01/08 4:30 PM

Pittsburgh -3

Cincinnati

44o/u

Personally I'm shocked at the Pittsburgh line. How can they be favored? Is Palmer out?

Other than that, I was pretty accurate (said NE 7, it is 8 - said Wash +2, it is 2.5, and the Giants by 3 or 4, it is 2.5).

Something is fishy about the Cincy line.
Pittsburgh is playing better than Cincy.Going by your methodology for picking (pick 1 dog), I stand by my picks with the Panthers being the dog to win.

 

GiantsRule

Footballguy
This would happen to me. After years of getting eliminated in Last Man Standing pools, usually by Week 1, I find myself one of 14 people (out of 719) still alive after the regular season. The pool coordinator said this is the first time in 10 years that he hasn't doled out the prizes by Week 16 let alone the end of the reg. season (only the Top 5 get paid).

Now, the rules are changed up a bit. You have to pick ALL the playoff winners each week from the wild card week through the Super Bowl. The participants with the most right each week advance. Whoever's remaining by the end of the Super Bowl gets the money (starts at 10% for the fourth-runner up all the way to 50% for the ultimate winner).

All games are straight up picks (no point spreads).

I know a lot of you are gambling gurus and pick 'em champs so I'm going to simply take the consensus of your picks by the end of the week. I'm as big a G-Men fan as you'll find, but if you all feel the Panthers are taking Round 1, that's who I'll select. Likewise, don't automatically pick the Pats or the Steelers because you're a big fan that feels the Jags and Bengals respectively don't have a chance.

Here's hoping I can properly represent FBG with a Survivor's crown!

Jaguars at Patriots

Panthers at Giants

Redskins at Bucs

Steelers at Bengals
1. Your "league commish" for this pool is a tool.... nice of him to make up rules as you go. Should be a split plot unless specified otherwise....
Sorry, I worded it wrong. I didn't mean that the rules are "now changed". I mean now that the regular season is over, the way to determine who gets what from the pot has changed. From the official rules:If the regular NFL season ends and more than one entry remains in the pool, then the playoffs will be used to help determine the winner(s).

All remaining entries will pick the winning team for all of the games each week of the playoffs.

All entries that picked the most correct games for that round will continue to the next round. All other entries will be eliminated.

If the number of entries drops from more than one to only one at the end of any round then the remaining entry will receive all of the remaining prize as no second place entry had been established.

If more than one entry remains for the Super Bowl, then each entry will pick the Super Bowl winner. If more than one entry picks the winning team, or all entries pick the losing team, then the remaining prize will be split evenly.

Again, no point spreads or totals. We just have to pick winners. With 14 left (12 if St. Louis holds on), I pretty much have to go 4 for 4 to have a shot.

 

Ramblin Wreck

Footballguy
Just looked at the lines:01/08 4:30 PMPittsburgh -3Cincinnati 44o/u Personally I'm shocked at the Pittsburgh line. How can they be favored? Is Palmer out?
Have you watched a lick of football in December?Buffalo waxed Cincinnati's D. KC beat the crap out of them. They aren't playing well. Pittsburgh is playing as good as they have all year. If I were in Vegas, I'd take Pitt and give the 3.
 

GiantsRule

Footballguy
Wow, Dallas's loss was certainly unexpected. Brings the field down to 12, just 7 eliminations away from grabbing at least a piece of the pot.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
Wow, Dallas's loss was certainly unexpected. Brings the field down to 12, just 7 eliminations away from grabbing at least a piece of the pot.
Not that shocking since they lost all hope just an hour before kickoff.
 

GiantsRule

Footballguy
Wow, Dallas's loss was certainly unexpected. Brings the field down to 12, just 7 eliminations away from grabbing at least a piece of the pot.
Not that shocking since they lost all hope just an hour before kickoff.
I see your point but Dallas just gave away a respectable 10-6 season to a team that lost at home to a team that had the inside track on the #1 pick last week!
 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
Just looked at the lines:

01/08 4:30 PM

Pittsburgh -3

Cincinnati

44o/u

Personally I'm shocked at the Pittsburgh line. How can they be favored? Is Palmer out?
Have you watched a lick of football in December?Buffalo waxed Cincinnati's D. KC beat the crap out of them. They aren't playing well. Pittsburgh is playing as good as they have all year. If I were in Vegas, I'd take Pitt and give the 3.
I'll give you that Pittsburgh is playing well, but careful how you phrase your answers:Cincy 38 Pitt 31 December 4th

Pittsburgh and Cincy beat up the Lions in December. Pittsburgh has stomped on the Lions, Cleveland and Minnesota the last 3 weeks. Not exactly teams to write home about.

Cincy didn't show up the last two weeks, and they did have something to play for this week.

It seems like a big swing of 7 points (giving normal 4 for home game) towards Pittsburgh.

Cincy needs their October defense to reappear, then it won't matter.

All I hope for is a good game - and I think Cincinnati has a far better chance against the Colts than Pittsburgh.

 

Psychopav

Help us, Joebi-Wan Brynobi, you're our only ho
This is tough because my gut tells me to pick two road teams, but I also agree with conventional wisdom that the home teams have the biggest advantage.Without taking home field into consideration, I'd go with Pats, Giants, 'Skins, Steelers.The Bucs and the Bengals are both young this year, with many players heading to their first post seasons. I'm leaning towards two road victories in week 1.

 

3C's

Footballguy
This is tough because my gut tells me to pick two road teams, but I also agree with conventional wisdom that the home teams have the biggest advantage.

Without taking home field into consideration, I'd go with Pats, Giants, 'Skins, Steelers.

The Bucs and the Bengals are both young this year, with many players heading to their first post seasons. I'm leaning towards two road victories in week 1.
The Bucs are young, but the Skins are a little beat up. Brunell is beat up, and if he's not healthy they won't win. Portis got hurt yesterday too, but I don't know how bad. I think he'll be ok, and besides they'll be ok with Betts/Cartwright.
 

Tough As Nails

Glave Master
1. Your "league commish" for this pool is a tool.... nice of him to make up rules as you go. Should be a split plot unless specified otherwise....
This is the correct response. It's a regular season survivor pool. You all survived. You all split the pot.
 

GiantsRule

Footballguy
1.  Your "league commish" for this pool is a tool.... nice of him to make up rules as you go.  Should be a split plot unless specified otherwise....
This is the correct response. It's a regular season survivor pool. You all survived. You all split the pot.
I'd certainly like the pot to be split. Much like when I hedge a parlay or a futures bet in sports gambling, I'd much sooner take a guaranteed payout than risk it all on the big score.But it's in the rules that are clearly stated at the beginning of the contest. Plus, as he stated last week, he has never gone into the 17th week without narrowing the field down to 5 people or less. The playoffs are usually used to see who will get a bigger share of the purse.

 

CA_7

Footballguy
Carolina

New England

Pittsburgh

Washington
Damn you and that avatar! And what did I say about "homers"?
I was lucky enough to get LJ in all three of my keeper/dynasty leagues this past year so he has obviously become my favorite player.Live in Carolina but am a Giants fan, check out my profile. Realistically, I am very pessimistic about their playoff chances since they are so banged up on D and Eli is playing like a 2nd year QB (surprise).

Good luck :thumbup:

 
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GiantsRule

Footballguy
Crunchtime! Consensus between this and a gambling board I belong to seems to be:

Pittsburgh

New England

Tampa Bay

NYG

Agree or disagree? Now would be the time to chime in!

 

GiantsRule

Footballguy
Finish your brunch until you have enough coffee like this guy ----> :excited: and then help a brother out in the next 40 minutes!

 

harrycarey

Footballguy
New England, Giants (have many weapons as opposed to the panthers having 1), Washington (have a stout run def. and should be able to hold caddy down), Pitt (Vegas usually knows what they are doing)

 

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