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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - Wild Card Game (1 Viewer)

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Philadelphia ran the ball using some sort of zone-read play 304 times, gaining 1,725 yards in the process, for a very impressive 5.7 yards per carry. The Saints only saw 36 zone-read plays all year, and they didn't handle them very well: New Orleans allowed 5.6 yards per carry on those 36 plays. If the Eagles can manage it, they'll happily run the read-option 36 times against the Saints on Saturday night.
This is a big factor IMO. Yes Ryan is better than Davis as a DC, and NO has the better overall defense. But it comes down to the players on the field and their reactions to the read option. If Philly can operate it properly with Foles making the correct decisions, it could be a long night for the NO D.
(Edited)

That's a great stat, apparently from here.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10230516/bill-barnwell-saturday-nfl-playoff-games

Yep, sounds like a problem. No matter who the 36 snaps came against it's not enough.

There's a good article. It has this among other nuggets:

Brees' stats in the temps we'll likely see tonight:

Cold (21-40 F) 6 178 274 65.0% 1,949 7.1 13 7

That's almost 325 ypg or almost 5,200 yards passing, 34+ TDs, ~18INT over a whole season.

It also includes a nod to Chase Stuart with a rather disturbing stat for Saints' fans, even though it's indicating it's not altogether a Brees or Saints issue playing outdoors it's an even bigger problem:

I don't see that the numbers suggest anything specific about Brees and his team that would make me think they can't play well on the road in cold weather. Well, except for one. Chase Stuart, as he often does, came up with the best stat of all: In the playoffs, dome-dwelling teams playing in temperatures below 35 degrees on the road are 3-22. The last time a team like that won was in 2004, when the Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay.
Yeah, not great.

 
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This is from late November, and I'm not sure if much as changed...

The Saints actually have the best regular-season road record in the NFL since 2009 (24-13).
http://www.saintsnews.net/2013/11/25/saints-best-regular-season-road-record-nfl-since-2009-24-13/

Would love to be able to figure out how to find road records by NFL team since some given year...
Home and Away records from 2002-2011, FWIW.

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug8.html

Top 5 are:

New England (56-24)

Indy (52-28)

Phi (49-30-1)

Pitt (47-33)

NYG (45-34)
Thanks good effort, the Saints are 6th best on the road since 2002, 46-36, .561. That might surprise some people.

Thanks a lot, again, was also hoping to find something more in the Payton era, but obviously they can and often do win on the road historically.

 
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Didinger mentioned this morning that tonight's crew called the 2nd-most pass interference of any crew this year. And the Eagles have been flagged the most. I swear that there were more replies with Williams and others hand-checking that I was somewhat surprised did not get called with the way the league is today. I feel like they figured out a good way to do this inconspicuously and that corresponded with the defense's improvement. Should be interesting.

 
This is from late November, and I'm not sure if much as changed...

The Saints actually have the best regular-season road record in the NFL since 2009 (24-13).
http://www.saintsnews.net/2013/11/25/saints-best-regular-season-road-record-nfl-since-2009-24-13/

Would love to be able to figure out how to find road records by NFL team since some given year...
Home and Away records from 2002-2011, FWIW.

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug8.html

Top 5 are:

New England (56-24)

Indy (52-28)

Phi (49-30-1)

Pitt (47-33)

NYG (45-34)
Thanks good effort, the Saints are 6th best on the road since 2002, 46-36, .561. That might surprise some people.

Thanks a lot, again, was also hoping to find something more in the Payton era, but obviously they can and often do win on the road historically.
AGree it's a bit surprising, though away record basically correlates to overall record. The only team in the top 13 overall winning % during that time not in the top 13 on the road is Baltimore (number 15).

Baltimore has a huge disparity, 2nd in home winning % and 15th on road.

NO is 17th at home and 6th on road (as you said) and NYG is 22nd at home and 5th on road.

Everyone else is about the same.

 
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Philadelphia ran the ball using some sort of zone-read play 304 times, gaining 1,725 yards in the process, for a very impressive 5.7 yards per carry. The Saints only saw 36 zone-read plays all year, and they didn't handle them very well: New Orleans allowed 5.6 yards per carry on those 36 plays. If the Eagles can manage it, they'll happily run the read-option 36 times against the Saints on Saturday night.
This is a big factor IMO. Yes Ryan is better than Davis as a DC, and NO has the better overall defense. But it comes down to the players on the field and their reactions to the read option. If Philly can operate it properly with Foles making the correct decisions, it could be a long night for the NO D.
(Edited)

That's a great stat, apparently from here.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10230516/bill-barnwell-saturday-nfl-playoff-games

Yep, sounds like a problem. No matter who the 36 snaps came against it's not enough.

There's a good article. It has this among other nuggets:

Brees' stats in the temps we'll likely see tonight:

Cold (21-40 F) 6 178 274 65.0% 1,949 7.1 13 7

That's almost 325 ypg or almost 5,200 yards passing, 34+ TDs, ~18INT over a whole season.

It also includes a nod to Chase Stuart with a rather disturbing stat for Saints' fans, even though it's indicating it's not altogether a Brees or Saints issue playing outdoors it's an even bigger problem:

I don't see that the numbers suggest anything specific about Brees and his team that would make me think they can't play well on the road in cold weather. Well, except for one. Chase Stuart, as he often does, came up with the best stat of all: In the playoffs, dome-dwelling teams playing in temperatures below 35 degrees on the road are 3-22. The last time a team like that won was in 2004, when the Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay.
Yeah, not great.
Thanks for posting the link and credit to Barnwell, forgot to include it.

All that cold weather stuff doesn't mean too much IMO. They're football players in the end and at some point in their lives have played outdoors in the cold.

 
Zigg said:
ShaHBucks said:
Insein said:
ShaHBucks said:
There is alot of discounting Drew Brees going on. I really don't understand why after watching the Eagles pass defense all season. Kendricks did a amazing job on Witten last week. He has all of the athleticism you'd hope for to cover Graham, but the hight disadvantage is a bit much to overcome. Lord help us if Graham is matched up with the Eagles safties.

I like the Birds straight up 23-24. I'll take Brees and the points.
No discounting of Brees at all IMO. He's the reason I'm ignoring the cold weather mumbo jumbo. Tampa 03 should get that out of our heads real quick. I have to feel after Witten played pretty good last week, Graham is doubled on every play this week. I think the focus last week was take away Dez and we did that for the most part. This week, Graham is the biggest threat. They've been pretty good the 2nd half of the year minimizing the opponent's biggest play maker.

Should be fun to see what Billy Davis has in store.
Hopefully he takes a lot from the Stl, Sea and the last Car game to stop Brees.There is no blueprint to stop the Eagles offense right now. That's the only reason I'm still optimistic.
Those are 3 of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL(all in the top 4 in sacks, I think), that is the key to beating the Saints. If you can't get to Drew with 4, you're in trouble.
It's not just how they played in their losses. On the road period, they weren't exactly an offensive dynamo. 16 pts at TB. 17 pts at ATL. 26 at CHI. CHI and ATL were some of the worst defenses in the league. You keep pushing this pass rush theory, but the Saints were just mediocre on the road period whether they won or lost.

 
I like NO at home against anyone but on the road in cold they just don't get it done... Eagles over Saints although I want to be wrong..... Would love to see den/no in superbowl but I know it won't happen. Rematch of Brees/Manning.

 
Tonight's officiating crew has thrown the 2nd most pass interference flags this season. :mellow:
So much for Cary williams then.
Ya I sort of worry about this stat too. I know it goes both way, but the fact that we should be running the ball much more then the Saints, hints that this may be an advantage for The Saints. And also we don't have receivers that often catch the ball in tight coverage and draw flags. When we do make catches, it seems like our guys are often pretty wide open. Just don't have the height to be throwing into tight coverage that can draw flags, and its not the way Foles really plays either.

 
Zigg said:
ShaHBucks said:
Insein said:
ShaHBucks said:
There is alot of discounting Drew Brees going on. I really don't understand why after watching the Eagles pass defense all season. Kendricks did a amazing job on Witten last week. He has all of the athleticism you'd hope for to cover Graham, but the hight disadvantage is a bit much to overcome. Lord help us if Graham is matched up with the Eagles safties.

I like the Birds straight up 23-24. I'll take Brees and the points.
No discounting of Brees at all IMO. He's the reason I'm ignoring the cold weather mumbo jumbo. Tampa 03 should get that out of our heads real quick. I have to feel after Witten played pretty good last week, Graham is doubled on every play this week. I think the focus last week was take away Dez and we did that for the most part. This week, Graham is the biggest threat. They've been pretty good the 2nd half of the year minimizing the opponent's biggest play maker.

Should be fun to see what Billy Davis has in store.
Hopefully he takes a lot from the Stl, Sea and the last Car game to stop Brees.There is no blueprint to stop the Eagles offense right now. That's the only reason I'm still optimistic.
Those are 3 of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL(all in the top 4 in sacks, I think), that is the key to beating the Saints. If you can't get to Drew with 4, you're in trouble.
It's not just how they played in their losses. On the road period, they weren't exactly an offensive dynamo. 16 pts at TB. 17 pts at ATL. 26 at CHI. CHI and ATL were some of the worst defenses in the league. You keep pushing this pass rush theory, but the Saints were just mediocre on the road period whether they won or lost.
On the other hand they surrendered 38 offensive points total or <13 ppg versus three teams playing at home. Chicago's defense was bad but their offense was fine this year, especially in the first half. They had 10 until a garbage TD at the end. Forte might have had his worst game of the year or near that in that game, 12/55/0, 4/40/0.

They lost to 5 teams with a home record of 33-7. Four of those five were 28-4, or an average of 7-1.

- Two of those losses came in the last 5 and last 20 seconds. Two of the other games were extremely affected by missed FGs. That was four of the five. Seattle was the anomaly.

The Eagles have gone 4-0 at home against teams that have been 11-21 away. You have Cutler coming off an injury, a snow bowl negating Stafford, the Skins and an imploding RG?, and all that came after losing to a Giants team in mid collapse who could not even score a TD. Did beat AZ by 3 points but NO beat them 31-7 at home.

The schedule stuff can be viewed both ways, so can the weather thing. Believe me I acquired every Eagle I could in FF based on their 2nd half schedule and it worked awesomely. I think the matchups and playcalling (including TOs especially) will determine this game.

 
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Woke up with a good feeling today, which I didn't think was possible.

Everything finally comes together today. Depleted defense, no P Yeah, no worries.

 
Tonight's officiating crew has thrown the 2nd most pass interference flags this season. :mellow:
So much for Cary williams then.
Ya I sort of worry about this stat too. I know it goes both way, but the fact that we should be running the ball much more then the Saints, hints that this may be an advantage for The Saints. And also we don't have receivers that often catch the ball in tight coverage and draw flags. When we do make catches, it seems like our guys are often pretty wide open. Just don't have the height to be throwing into tight coverage that can draw flags, and its not the way Foles really plays either.
Seems that among the important targets with both teams, neither have a guy that has drawn more than 2 PIs this year.

 
the pierre thomas being out thing is saints homers already reaching for an excuse. weather will be the big one and rightfully so. to their credit most saints fans in here were great and realize a loss won't be because of pierre thomas. sproles, and even ingram for that matter, will be more than fine.
At least Pierre Thomas is something football related for the actual game that's about to happen. 90% of the conversation all week is how the Saints have played on the road in games that are not this game. Yawn.

 
So somewhere between CBS sports radio & NFLN I have heard that the Eagles play a typically a soft zone - is this correct?

 
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I think both Saints and Eagles fans should be proud to not be one of the slacker fanbases that nearly had a blacked out playoff game. Cheers.

 
Zigg said:
ShaHBucks said:
Insein said:
ShaHBucks said:
There is alot of discounting Drew Brees going on. I really don't understand why after watching the Eagles pass defense all season. Kendricks did a amazing job on Witten last week. He has all of the athleticism you'd hope for to cover Graham, but the hight disadvantage is a bit much to overcome. Lord help us if Graham is matched up with the Eagles safties.

I like the Birds straight up 23-24. I'll take Brees and the points.
No discounting of Brees at all IMO. He's the reason I'm ignoring the cold weather mumbo jumbo. Tampa 03 should get that out of our heads real quick. I have to feel after Witten played pretty good last week, Graham is doubled on every play this week. I think the focus last week was take away Dez and we did that for the most part. This week, Graham is the biggest threat. They've been pretty good the 2nd half of the year minimizing the opponent's biggest play maker.

Should be fun to see what Billy Davis has in store.
Hopefully he takes a lot from the Stl, Sea and the last Car game to stop Brees.There is no blueprint to stop the Eagles offense right now. That's the only reason I'm still optimistic.
Those are 3 of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL(all in the top 4 in sacks, I think), that is the key to beating the Saints. If you can't get to Drew with 4, you're in trouble.
It's not just how they played in their losses. On the road period, they weren't exactly an offensive dynamo. 16 pts at TB. 17 pts at ATL. 26 at CHI. CHI and ATL were some of the worst defenses in the league. You keep pushing this pass rush theory, but the Saints were just mediocre on the road period whether they won or lost.
Pass protection is the biggest issue. The only time they looked awful were those three games. TB was awful weather in week 2 and Atl was a Thursday sandwiched by big games and a couple injuries. That said, it doesn't take an elite rush to get to Brees, but a bit more time is huge.

I also don't think Eagle fans understand how good the Saints D is. Jordan/Galette are great rushers, and Lewis is vastly underrated at CB. The safeties scare me with Vacarro out.

In the end, my opinion means jack squat and I look forward to a great game.

 
I was feeling fairly confident until Pierre was ruled out. He keeps so many drives alive. I expect we'll be telegraphing plays all day with Ingram = run and Sproles = pass.

This will be the third playoff game Pierre has missed and we lost the other two. This really sucks.
Saints averaged, what like 33 points in those two games? I'll take that now.

They also were without him games 4-13 in 2010 and they went 8-2.

More than doable.
Doable, sure, any game any day is doable. But I went from confident to pessimistic. I think Pierre is the catalyst for a lot of what Payton wants to do. Without him and with these receivers being largely absent all year, I wonder who the heck is going to step up and convert those two or three extra third downs Pierre always gives us when the chips are down. Maybe Lance Moore.Either way, I just wish we had our best back for once on these road games we're supposedly incapable of winning.
I know the news hit the city like a bombshell yesterday but c'mon a little too much deflation going on here. Hey the defense lost those games, or more specifically Gregg Williams' calls in those two games. It was a blow when Pierre left the 9ers game, but then that was a dirty hit, a surprise, and he was going to be a big part of the offense that day. This year the Saints have been practicing all week without him and have likely been planning to be without him. These Eagles have very little to nothing in common with the style of football played by SF and Seattle.

I also think no time like the present, this team is about challenges and breaking records and benchmarks. Well, here's as big of a one as they could want. Payton has buried every bad Saints gris-gris but this one.

I think Sproles can fill Pierre's role ably and I will add it's about time they use him more fully. He'll be fresh, we know that much, and maybe they were intending to use him all along here and maybe that's why they have had him in reserve, we shall see.

Do you remember that Seattle game? Reggie Bush dropped a sure fire TD (one of several mistakes that cost them that game) and spent much of the game on the bench with one of those mystery injuries he gets. The next year Bush is gone, and the Saints get who? Sproles. Pierre goes out vs the 9ers and guess what, they were ready, Sproles went 15/119/1 receiving. Huge day against a championship quality defense.

No reason this offense can't push it down the field.
Sure they can win without him and sure Sproles has been an excellent player for us. I'm not sure what's wrong with being disappointed our second best offensive weapon has been ruled out. I'm sure if Desean Jackson were out, Eagles fans would feel similar disappointment. Everyone wants to point to trends and the trend I see is we're 4-0 with Pierre and 0-2 without him. In each of those wins I remember him making huge plays and in each of those losses I remember cursing our backup for botching two or three third downs Pierre would have converted. If we lose games on close calls at the end, I'd argue those offensive plays we missed earlier are just as critical as the defensive calls down the stretch.

We'll see how it goes tonight. I do agree that game planning without PT is a much better situation than losing him in the first quarter.

 
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Which is the worst loss for the Saints? Thomas or Vaccaro? The rookie played like an All Pro this year.
I'd say Vaccaro because of Sproles' availability behind Pierre.

The Saints just have had a slew of defensive injuries. The depth is not there at safety, not bad I guess but Harper and Jenkins both have liabilities, Vacarro is a difference maker in several ways.

There's definitely a problem with Pierre out though - it takes away the guesswork on the playcalling. We haven't really seen Ingram or Robinson become a threat on the screens and we hardly ever see Sproles get more than 3 carries.

 
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Which is the worst loss for the Saints? Thomas or Vaccaro? The rookie played like an All Pro this year.
Against a productive offense like the Eagles, probably Vaccaro. He was a huge part of the defensive turnaround this year. Harper is a liability back there and Jenkins just seems average lately.

Thomas is admittedly a luxury loss. He's our best back but the dropoff isn't as big.

 
Saints fans, which classic Payton gaffe should we drink to when it happens?

- get a first and goal at the 1 and run it into the pile 3 times

- on a critical third down, lose yards on a double reverse

- on a critical third down, target the third string rookie tight end

:banned:

 
Which is the worst loss for the Saints? Thomas or Vaccaro? The rookie played like an All Pro this year.
Vaccaro easily. NO has 2 other RBs, maybe 3, who can still get it done. Quit frankly I think Ingram has looked better than Thomas in the games I've seen this year. Nobody can remotely fill Vaccaro's void.

 
Saints fans, which classic Payton gaffe should we drink to when it happens?

- get a first and goal at the 1 and run it into the pile 3 times

- on a critical third down, lose yards on a double reverse

- on a critical third down, target the third string rookie tight end

:banned:
I'll go with Josh Hill. Except this time he makes the catch, sheds a couple of tacklers, rumbles into the end zone, and then does that one dance Turbo does in Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo.

 
Which is the worst loss for the Saints? Thomas or Vaccaro? The rookie played like an All Pro this year.
Against a productive offense like the Eagles, probably Vaccaro. He was a huge part of the defensive turnaround this year. Harper is a liability back there and Jenkins just seems average lately.
If we lose the game, at least we can assume that it was Harper's last as a Saint.
Jenkins has had some horrible whiffs on tackling lately - that is one of the things Vaccaro excels at, wrap up tackling.

Harper, heaven help us if anyone heads up field on him, that's all she wrote.

Actually watching out for Celek and Ertz tonight. Seems like if the run game is focused Celek has been in there for most of the snaps.

 
Saints fans, which classic Payton gaffe should we drink to when it happens?

- get a first and goal at the 1 and run it into the pile 3 times

- on a critical third down, lose yards on a double reverse

- on a critical third down, target the third string rookie tight end

:banned:
I'll go with Josh Hill. Except this time he makes the catch, sheds a couple of tacklers, rumbles into the end zone, and then does that one dance Turbo does in Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo.
Second the Hill call. I nearly danced a jig when I saw Hill was out a couple weeks ago. Please someone tell me that bonehead wrinkle is packed away until next year.

 
And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.

 
And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.
Very true. It seems like more of his are of the back breaking, directly leading to a touchdown variety. I'm hopeful we won't see that tonight with Philly not having as terrifying a pass rush as other opponents. Cox is very good though.

 
And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.
Very true. It seems like more of his are of the back breaking, directly leading to a touchdown variety. I'm hopeful we won't see that tonight with Philly not having as terrifying a pass rush as other opponents. Cox is very good though.
Trent Cole against your rookie LT should be an interesting matchup to watch. And Chip likes to go for the jugular right after a turnover. :popcorn:
 
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And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.
This is where their LBers come in.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/The-3-4-vs-the-4-3-and-how-the-Eagles-fit.html

Sounds like Kendricks is a key cover LB.

Brees has trouble with LBers hanging out in space when he throws blind with rushers closing in. - On the other hand I would love it if Graham and Sproles run right by these guys all night long.

Also watch to see if Wolff plays at safety and how much.

But I don't think this is going to be one of those games where they check it down and show patience.

 
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And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.
Very true. It seems like more of his are of the back breaking, directly leading to a touchdown variety. I'm hopeful we won't see that tonight with Philly not having as terrifying a pass rush as other opponents. Cox is very good though.
Trent Cole against your rookie LT should be an interesting matchup to watch. And Chip likes to go for the jugular right after a turnover. :popcorn:
Armstead is about as close to a new offensive wrinkle as we have seen from Payton this year. I have not seen them throw the screen to his side much this year but he can hustle down field. Looks like a LT when you see him that's for sure. Payton has really put a lot on this kid.

 
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And if Brees is gonna throw any picks, let's hope that they're all downfield instead of the ones that are five yards off the line of scrimmage. He specializes in those. I'd like to see what the numbers are.
Very true. It seems like more of his are of the back breaking, directly leading to a touchdown variety. I'm hopeful we won't see that tonight with Philly not having as terrifying a pass rush as other opponents. Cox is very good though.
Trent Cole against your rookie LT should be an interesting matchup to watch. And Chip likes to go for the jugular right after a turnover. :popcorn:
Ah, thought Cox was on that side. Yeah, it's a concern for sure.

 
tjnc09 said:
Does anyone know who the primary RB for the Saints will be instead of Pierre? Khiry got most of the carries last week and Ingram the week before.
I'm going to guess that we see Ingram lead with a 2:1 or 3:2 split with Robinson getting most of the minor part with some Sproles carries (<5). Sproles should get most of Pierre's receptions.

Won't get rich predicting what Payton will do.
Thanks for the info. Play in a 12 team playoff league so RBs get really thin. Thankfully avoided the situation w my picks.

 
Saints fans, which classic Payton gaffe should we drink to when it happens?

- get a first and goal at the 1 and run it into the pile 3 times

- on a critical third down, lose yards on a double reverse

- on a critical third down, target the third string rookie tight end

:banned:
Call timeout on 2nd and 9 at the end of the half, only to give the Eagles a chance to march down field for a TD.

 
Short answer on the zone is yes, they do a lot of zone in order to mask the individual players' deficiencies, but overall the trademark is to disguise looks and keep changing things up as much as possible.

 
I really can't stand tonight's sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya.......does anybody else wonder how many nuts she can fit in those chipmunk cheeks??

 
Which is the worst loss for the Saints? Thomas or Vaccaro? The rookie played like an All Pro this year.
Vaccaro easily. NO has 2 other RBs, maybe 3, who can still get it done. Quit frankly I think Ingram has looked better than Thomas in the games I've seen this year. Nobody can remotely fill Vaccaro's void.
Thomas is 2-3x better than Ingram.
Vaccaro is the bigger loss. Few of the remaining Saints secondary can tackle or cover. Ingram, Sproles, Robinson and Cadet can still run.

 

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